Jumbo
03-24-2010, 06:52 PM
Welcome to Phase VII, everyone. Glad we're all here! We'll define this stage as the South Regional of the NCAA Tournament. As I did with the last "phase" post, I'll try make this as broad (as opposed to game-focused) as possible. There's plenty to talk about in terms of matchups in the pre-game and in-game threads -- I'm more interested in talking about general trends/issues/areas of interest here. And with that said, let's begin.
1) Can Duke stay healthy?
Seriously.
2) Will the Scheyer Schooting Schlump continue?
I usually do these without regard to order, but this is definitely the second-biggest area of concern after health. It's also a rare repeated question from one phase to the next. For Duke to play at its optimal level, Scheyer has to return to shooting the ball at a reasonably efficient rate -- like we all know he can. We've been speculating about reasons for his struggles in another thread, but whether he's hurt, putting too much pressure on himself or anything in between, the bottom line is that he needs to start knocking down shots, particularly the wide open jumpers he is getting in the flow of the offense. I have confidence in Jon. Heck, at this point, I'm willing to bank on the collective consciousness of Duke fans believing in Jon as a way to will him out of this rut and the ball into the basket. Yeah, I just went in there. Heck, it can't hurt to try, right?
3) How will Duke react to playing in a dome?
The team has played in big NBA arenas this year, but not a domed stadium. There's that longtime myth about how domes make for bad shooting backdrops -- it will be interesting to see how the team shoots from the perimeter in Houston.
4) Is the offense truly becoming more diverse?
We saw some things last weekend that should have made every Duke fan stop and wonder what was happening. Zoubek was nailing jump hooks on the baseline. Thomas was making a post move against a smaller player and finishing with his left hand. Miles was successfully catching a pass off a pick and roll after Nolan trusted him enough to make that pass, and dunking with authority to finish. The first couple of these happened against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and the temptation was to write them off because of the quality of the opponent. But Plumlee's dunk came against Cal. So did Lance's pass to a cutting Singler. So did another jump hook by Zoubek. So did a face-up jumper by Miles. Granted, Cal didn't have a lot of size, but there are other teams that don't have much size, too. It is quite possible that Duke is continuing to evolve and improve, and in games where the bigs have distinct advantages, they are becoming legit scoring options. They really picked up the slack for Scheyer and Singler in the first half of the Cal game. Can we expect the bigs to contribute a bit more scoring than they did for almost the entire season now?
5) Has Duke's defense reached a point where it's a given strength -- against any opponent?
The team is third in the nation in defensive efficiency and has been improving all season. In particular, it's been incredibly hard for teams to score on the starting lineup, given the combination of versatility, talent and experience. I was worried -- like some other people -- about teams with smaller lineups and/or bigs who can spread the floor. But Cal was a team with those qualities, and Duke still clamped down. There are better teams with Cal with more versatile, athletic 4's and 5's who can play both inside and out. Will they test Duke more? Or have we reached a point where we know, at a minimum, that Duke's D will keep the team in any game, no matter how good the opposing offense is? That remains to be seen, but I like where things are heading.
6) Will teams gameplan differently against Duke's offense?
We've seen this go in phases. At the beginning of the year, teams tried to take away Singler and stuck their point guard on Scheyer. Scheyer then worked those guys off the ball and became a huge scoring threat. Teams then switched to a bigger guy on Scheyer and really focused their help schemes on all 3 perimeter players -- that opened things up even more for Duke's offensive rebounders. Cal stuck Guttierez, its best defender, on Scheyer, focused help on Singler when he attacked off the dribble, and tried not to leave the bigs completely alone to avoid getting killed on the glass. Now, I'm wondering if the bigs will stay at home more, because Duke's bigs -- particularly Zoubek -- have become such a force on the offensive glass, which is now a huge part of Duke's offense. I'm also wondering if a team's top perimeter player (say, Chris Kramer) will no longer guard Scheyer, but either be asked to shut down Smith or Singler instead. Perhaps teams feel like Scheyer is so deep in a funk that they can use a lesser perimeter defender on him and not offer much help. We'll see. But I do think opponents will make more of an effort to keep Duke off the offensive glass. That should open up driving lanes, as well as jump shots off ballscreens. If that happens, can Duke take advantage? And if guys -- especially those with size and athleticism -- focus more on staying with Zoubek and the other bigs, can they be as effective as offensive rebounders?
7) How will Duke's transition D be against better teams?
I still think the best way to beat Duke is to force tempo and get out and run at every opportunity. Duke is excellent at taking care of the basketball so, of the team plays according to form, there won't be many live-ball turnovers that lead to easy baskets. (If there are, that's a recipe for disaster.) But I'm interested to see what kind of an effort teams make in this phase to push the ball off both missed shots and made ones, and how Duke handles that tempo.
8) How will Duke handle extended stretches where the offense isn't working?
Duke can get bogged down offensively in at least three different ways. One would be the result of jump shots simply not going down. The second would be if a team that's just a great defensive team (such as what Duke will face Friday night) just clamps down and takes away primary and secondary options. The last will be a if a team is bigger and more athletic at most positions and through shot-blocking and movement, takes away Duke's offensive structure without sending the Blue Devils to the free throw line. Duke's weapon to carry itself through prolonged shooting slumps has been its exceptional offensive rebounding. But if a team is good enough to limit Duke on the boards, too, where will the Blue Devils turn? What other wrinkles does K have up his sleeve? And will it affect the team's play on the other end of the floor? Let's hope we don't have to answer this, but if so, it will be interesting what Coach K does to manifacture points if they aren't coming easily.
9) How will Duke handle the pressure of the coming moments?
We've now reached a level -- the Sweet 16 -- that no player on the current roster has surpassed. Much like Scheyer and his jump shot, it's evident how badly these guys want to break through that barrier, and not just stop at the next round, but win the whole thing. That's a great motivating force to play hard, but also a tough mental hurdle. Coach K certainly has made a living out of simplifying things for his guys and getting them to focus on the task at hand. Will they be able to strike the right balance between intense hunger and unhealthy pressure?
There are other questions that remain big from the last phase -- how the games will be called, how the team handles game pressure and how quickly K will make adjustments if things aren't working right, in particular. But I already discussed those in depth last time, and I didn't want this already-long post to be even longer. That said, I'll be watching out for those issues, too. Regardless, I know I'm excited for what this team can do, and I hope you all are, too.
Go Duke!
1) Can Duke stay healthy?
Seriously.
2) Will the Scheyer Schooting Schlump continue?
I usually do these without regard to order, but this is definitely the second-biggest area of concern after health. It's also a rare repeated question from one phase to the next. For Duke to play at its optimal level, Scheyer has to return to shooting the ball at a reasonably efficient rate -- like we all know he can. We've been speculating about reasons for his struggles in another thread, but whether he's hurt, putting too much pressure on himself or anything in between, the bottom line is that he needs to start knocking down shots, particularly the wide open jumpers he is getting in the flow of the offense. I have confidence in Jon. Heck, at this point, I'm willing to bank on the collective consciousness of Duke fans believing in Jon as a way to will him out of this rut and the ball into the basket. Yeah, I just went in there. Heck, it can't hurt to try, right?
3) How will Duke react to playing in a dome?
The team has played in big NBA arenas this year, but not a domed stadium. There's that longtime myth about how domes make for bad shooting backdrops -- it will be interesting to see how the team shoots from the perimeter in Houston.
4) Is the offense truly becoming more diverse?
We saw some things last weekend that should have made every Duke fan stop and wonder what was happening. Zoubek was nailing jump hooks on the baseline. Thomas was making a post move against a smaller player and finishing with his left hand. Miles was successfully catching a pass off a pick and roll after Nolan trusted him enough to make that pass, and dunking with authority to finish. The first couple of these happened against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and the temptation was to write them off because of the quality of the opponent. But Plumlee's dunk came against Cal. So did Lance's pass to a cutting Singler. So did another jump hook by Zoubek. So did a face-up jumper by Miles. Granted, Cal didn't have a lot of size, but there are other teams that don't have much size, too. It is quite possible that Duke is continuing to evolve and improve, and in games where the bigs have distinct advantages, they are becoming legit scoring options. They really picked up the slack for Scheyer and Singler in the first half of the Cal game. Can we expect the bigs to contribute a bit more scoring than they did for almost the entire season now?
5) Has Duke's defense reached a point where it's a given strength -- against any opponent?
The team is third in the nation in defensive efficiency and has been improving all season. In particular, it's been incredibly hard for teams to score on the starting lineup, given the combination of versatility, talent and experience. I was worried -- like some other people -- about teams with smaller lineups and/or bigs who can spread the floor. But Cal was a team with those qualities, and Duke still clamped down. There are better teams with Cal with more versatile, athletic 4's and 5's who can play both inside and out. Will they test Duke more? Or have we reached a point where we know, at a minimum, that Duke's D will keep the team in any game, no matter how good the opposing offense is? That remains to be seen, but I like where things are heading.
6) Will teams gameplan differently against Duke's offense?
We've seen this go in phases. At the beginning of the year, teams tried to take away Singler and stuck their point guard on Scheyer. Scheyer then worked those guys off the ball and became a huge scoring threat. Teams then switched to a bigger guy on Scheyer and really focused their help schemes on all 3 perimeter players -- that opened things up even more for Duke's offensive rebounders. Cal stuck Guttierez, its best defender, on Scheyer, focused help on Singler when he attacked off the dribble, and tried not to leave the bigs completely alone to avoid getting killed on the glass. Now, I'm wondering if the bigs will stay at home more, because Duke's bigs -- particularly Zoubek -- have become such a force on the offensive glass, which is now a huge part of Duke's offense. I'm also wondering if a team's top perimeter player (say, Chris Kramer) will no longer guard Scheyer, but either be asked to shut down Smith or Singler instead. Perhaps teams feel like Scheyer is so deep in a funk that they can use a lesser perimeter defender on him and not offer much help. We'll see. But I do think opponents will make more of an effort to keep Duke off the offensive glass. That should open up driving lanes, as well as jump shots off ballscreens. If that happens, can Duke take advantage? And if guys -- especially those with size and athleticism -- focus more on staying with Zoubek and the other bigs, can they be as effective as offensive rebounders?
7) How will Duke's transition D be against better teams?
I still think the best way to beat Duke is to force tempo and get out and run at every opportunity. Duke is excellent at taking care of the basketball so, of the team plays according to form, there won't be many live-ball turnovers that lead to easy baskets. (If there are, that's a recipe for disaster.) But I'm interested to see what kind of an effort teams make in this phase to push the ball off both missed shots and made ones, and how Duke handles that tempo.
8) How will Duke handle extended stretches where the offense isn't working?
Duke can get bogged down offensively in at least three different ways. One would be the result of jump shots simply not going down. The second would be if a team that's just a great defensive team (such as what Duke will face Friday night) just clamps down and takes away primary and secondary options. The last will be a if a team is bigger and more athletic at most positions and through shot-blocking and movement, takes away Duke's offensive structure without sending the Blue Devils to the free throw line. Duke's weapon to carry itself through prolonged shooting slumps has been its exceptional offensive rebounding. But if a team is good enough to limit Duke on the boards, too, where will the Blue Devils turn? What other wrinkles does K have up his sleeve? And will it affect the team's play on the other end of the floor? Let's hope we don't have to answer this, but if so, it will be interesting what Coach K does to manifacture points if they aren't coming easily.
9) How will Duke handle the pressure of the coming moments?
We've now reached a level -- the Sweet 16 -- that no player on the current roster has surpassed. Much like Scheyer and his jump shot, it's evident how badly these guys want to break through that barrier, and not just stop at the next round, but win the whole thing. That's a great motivating force to play hard, but also a tough mental hurdle. Coach K certainly has made a living out of simplifying things for his guys and getting them to focus on the task at hand. Will they be able to strike the right balance between intense hunger and unhealthy pressure?
There are other questions that remain big from the last phase -- how the games will be called, how the team handles game pressure and how quickly K will make adjustments if things aren't working right, in particular. But I already discussed those in depth last time, and I didn't want this already-long post to be even longer. That said, I'll be watching out for those issues, too. Regardless, I know I'm excited for what this team can do, and I hope you all are, too.
Go Duke!