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View Full Version : UVA: Beaten Like a (Michael) Drum



Jumbo
03-03-2007, 03:26 PM
Just had a feeling about this game. The ACC has been too crazy this year for UVA to have waltzed to the top seed today (and thank goodness, because they've benefited from the unbalanced schedule to a ridiculous degree).
If someone would like to figure out all the different seeding scenarios now, based on the remaining possible outcomes, I'd love to see a breakdown. I don't remember a final weekend like this one.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 03:29 PM
Grrr, I was hoping UVA would win so UNC couldn't get a share of the regular season "title" if they beat us on Sunday. UNC still can't get the 1 seed if VaTech wins, but now they get to hang a banner if they beat us.

Jumbo
03-03-2007, 03:34 PM
Grrr, I was hoping UVA would win so UNC couldn't get a share of the regular season "title" if they beat us on Sunday. UNC still can't get the 1 seed if VaTech wins, but now they get to hang a banner if they beat us.

No, but it sets up a great best-case scenario for us. If we beat UNC, and BC/VT win, UNC's in the 4-spot (could they be 5th if Maryland wins?). We're in the 6th spot. Assuming we get through our opening round game, we get BC again, right? If not, I'd love another shot at VT or UVA too. Plus, that puts UNC on the other side of the bracket.
Now, Duke needs to just go out and take care of business tomorrow.

RepoMan
03-03-2007, 03:48 PM
Truly the craziest ACC regular season in a long long time. I hope the in-conference carnage, combined with the extra-conference success, suggests that the ACC is loaded with very good teams. I think that is the case, but the NCAA tourney should answer the question.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 04:03 PM
No, but it sets up a great best-case scenario for us. If we beat UNC, and BC/VT win, UNC's in the 4-spot (could they be 5th if Maryland wins?). We're in the 6th spot. Assuming we get through our opening round game, we get BC again, right? If not, I'd love another shot at VT or UVA too. Plus, that puts UNC on the other side of the bracket.
Now, Duke needs to just go out and take care of business tomorrow.

In the scenario you mentioned (Duke,VT,BC win), the seeds would be:
1. BC 11-5 (2-1 record against VT/UVA)
2. VT 11-5 (2-2)
3. UVA 11-5 (1-2)
4. Maryland 10-6 (1-0 vs UNC)
5. UNC 10-6 (0-1 vs Maryland)
6. Duke 9-7
7. GaTech 7-9 (2-0 vs FSU)
8. FSU 7-9 (0-2 vs GaTech)

tbyers11
03-03-2007, 04:10 PM
If Maryland, BC, and VT win and UNC loses. You would have three 11-5 teams (BC, VT, UVA) and two 10-6 teams (UNC and MD). First tiebreaker is head-to-head, therefore wouldn't MD be the 4 seed and UNC the 5 seed?

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 04:13 PM
If Maryland, BC, and VT win and UNC loses. You would have three 11-5 teams (BC, VT, UVA) and two 10-6 teams (UNC and MD). First tiebreaker is head-to-head, therefore wouldn't MD be the 4 seed and UNC the 5 seed?

You're right. I thought UNC-MD split this year but apparently they only met once in CP. Yes, UNC would be the 5 seed.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 04:26 PM
In the most likely scenario in which all the favorites win (UNC vs Duke,VT vs Clemson,GaTech vs BC,Maryland vs NCSU), the seeds will be:
1. VT 11-5 (3-1 vs UNC/UVA)
2. UNC 11-5 (1-2 vs VT/UVA, but 1-0 vs UVA)
3. UVA 11-5 (1-2 vs VT/UNC, but 0-1 vs UNC)
4. BC 10-6 (1-0 vs Maryland)
5. Maryland 10-6 (0-1 vs BC)
6. GaTech 8-8 (0-1 vs VT, 1-1 vs UNC)
7. Duke 8-8 (0-1 vs VT, 0-2 vs UNC)

hurleyfor3
03-03-2007, 04:39 PM
Strangely, I'm getting the maryland/ncsu game on the abc affiliate here. Maryland does indeed win any tiebreaker with unc, so go terps.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 04:46 PM
In the scenario in which Duke upsets UNC but the other favorites win (VT vs Clemson,GaTech vs BC,Maryland vs NCSU):
1. VT 11-5 (4-1 vs the 10-6 teams)
2. UVA 11-5 (3-2 vs the 10-6 teams)
3. BC 10-6 (1-1 vs UNC/Maryland, and 1-1 vs VT)
4. Maryland 10-6 (1-1 vs UNC/BC, 0-1 vs VT, 1-0 vs UNC)
5. UNC 10-6 (1-1 vs BC/Maryland, 0-2 vs VT, 0-1 vs Maryland)
6. Duke 9-7
7. GaTech 8-8

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 04:56 PM
In the scenario in which there are FOUR 11-5 teams (VT,BC,UNC all win):
1. VT 11-5 (4-2 against other 11-5 teams)
2. UNC 11-5 (2-2 against other 11-5 teams, but 1-0 against BC)
3. BC 11-5 (2-2 against other 11-5 teams, but 0-1 against UNC)
4. UVA 11-5 (1-3 against other 11-5 teams)
5. Maryland 10-6
6. Duke 8-8
7. GaTech 7-9

mehmattski
03-03-2007, 05:23 PM
So what about this scenario:
VT, MD win, UNC, BC lose
that would make it:
UVA (11-5)
VT (11-5)
BC (10-6)
UNC (10-6)
MD (10-6)

UVA and VT split. BC, UNC, and MD are all 1-1 versus each other. According to the ACC seeding rules, the UVA/VT tie would normally be broken by the record against the third place team-- but there are three third place teams in this scenario. So the ACC says (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html):

If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie-breaking procedures there are a pair of teams tied, a team's record against the combined tied teams (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures) is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.

Does this mean that they would examine all five teams on their combined record versus all four other teams? If that is the case, then it would be: 1) VT 2) UVA 3) BC 4) MD 5) UNC.

Am I reading the ACC rules right?

hurleyfor3
03-03-2007, 05:30 PM
In case anyone cares, the bottom three teams are now set.

10. Ncsu 5-11
11. Wake 5-11 (got swept by Ncsu)
12. UMiami 4-12

Clempsun (6-9) locks up the #9 if it loses at VPI tomorrow. If Clempsun wins things get murky; it owns the tiebreaker with Fsu at 7-9 but GIT is 7-8 and might lose too.

In case no one noticed, Maryland has swept the entire state of North Carolina. I don't think that's ever been done by a non-NC school.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 05:40 PM
If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie-breaking procedures there are a pair of teams tied, a team's record against the combined tied teams (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures) is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.

Does this mean that they would examine all five teams on their combined record versus all four other teams? If that is the case, then it would be: 1) VT 2) UVA 3) BC 4) MD 5) UNC.

Am I reading the ACC rules right?

You have the eventual order of the teams right, but I think what that blurb means is that VT and UVA (the 11-5 teams) would have their records against the collective 10-6 teams compared. VT would be 4-1 against the 10-6 teams, and UVA would be 3-2, so VT gets the 1 seed.

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 05:43 PM
Anyway, I corrected my mistakes regarding UNC and Maryland; it took awhile to wrap my brain around Maryland sweeping UNC as I kept calculating tiebreakers based on a 1-1 split when Maryland was actually 1-0. The best scenario seems to be the one I quote below in which Duke upsets UNC but all the other home favorites win.


In the scenario in which Duke upsets UNC but the other favorites win (VT vs Clemson,GaTech vs BC,Maryland vs NCSU):
1. VT 11-5 (4-1 vs the 10-6 teams)
2. UVA 11-5 (3-2 vs the 10-6 teams)
3. BC 10-6 (1-1 vs UNC/Maryland, and 1-1 vs VT)
4. Maryland 10-6 (1-1 vs UNC/BC, 0-1 vs VT, 1-0 vs UNC)
5. UNC 10-6 (1-1 vs BC/Maryland, 0-2 vs VT, 0-1 vs Maryland)
6. Duke 9-7
7. GaTech 8-8

mehmattski
03-03-2007, 05:57 PM
Anyway, I corrected my mistakes regarding UNC and Maryland; it took awhile to wrap my brain around Maryland sweeping UNC as I kept calculating tiebreakers based on a 1-1 split when Maryland was actually 1-0. The best scenario seems to be the one I quote below in which Duke upsets UNC but all the other home favorites win.

I actually prefer a matchup with UVA, as I think that on a neutral court that Duke can handle the two super-guards. This can happen in two ways: Duke, VT, and BC win, or UNC, GT, and Clemson win. The former is of course preferable, and would result in the following standings:

If VT and BC win, UNC loses:
#1 BC (2-1 v VT and UVA)
#2 VT (2-2 v BC and UVA)
#3 UVA (1-2 v VT and BC)
#4 Maryland
#5 UNC v #12 Miami
#6 Duke v #11 Wake
#7 FSU v #10 NCSU
#8 GT v #9 Clemson

I've tried to get all the scenarios up on my blog (see link in my sig), if you want a handy reference while watching the games tomorrow. If I've made any mistakes there, let me know!

Troublemaker
03-03-2007, 06:04 PM
You have to switch FSU and GT since GT swept FSU. GT should be 7 seed and FSU should be 8.