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Jumbo
03-16-2010, 01:05 AM
It's hard to believe we've reached this point in the season, but the NCAA tourney always has a way of sneaking up on you. And so it is that it's time to discuss Phase VI, which we'll define as the opening (extended) weekend of the NCAA tournament. It's tempting, since we know Duke's potential opponents, to focus on game-specific stuff and keys to particular victories. But I want to keep this in the spirit that I've always done the Phase posts -- bigger picture questions. That said, if Duke is fortunate enough to advance through the first two rounds and into the second weekend of the tournament, I imagine some questions will be repeated. And certainly the first one will, because it's been in that spot all year.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I think you all realize that, by now, I view this as a pretty important factor with this team.

2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
I hate rumors and speculation. I don't believe for a second that he was sick at the ACC tourney, and have no idea how that started. Then again, somehow after the loss to West Virginia in 2008, people became convinced that the whole team had the flu because Coach K was sick -- that ended up being a complete myth.
You guys also know that I don't buy the fatigue argument. Scheyer is just in too good shape, with a ridiculous VO2 max score, to suddenly be exhausted.
But something is definitely wrong. The best way to put it is that he just doesn't look like himself, and that was particularly true in the ACC tourney. He's not moving the same way. His mechanics look off on his shot. His ball handling is a bit shakier. Even his FT shooting has been off by his standards.
The only piece of remotely hard evidence we have to go on is Coach K's comment from a few weeks ago about some kind of a back injury. I don't know what's up with that, but I do know that I never like hearing about back problems, because they have a tendency to linger. And maybe that explains why I feel like he's moving differently. At the risk of going too far off track, I'll throw this to our resident body expert, Greybeard, and ask about his comment that Jon seemed to be "dragging his left leg," and whether that could really stem from a back problem.
Hopefully, of course, this is nothing physical. Of course that means that things are mental, and in some ways, that's a tougher problem to fix. The bottom line is that Duke needs Jon Scheyer to play like Jon Scheyer soon, to really succeed in the NCAA tournament. And I'm hoping that the first-round game will be easy enough for him to get his feet back under him, and maybe even break out, Gardner-Webb style. If he could get back to the way he looked at that time of the year, when he was controlling the game in all facets of basketball, things would be really, really good. And speaking of which ...

3) Can Duke turn its first-round game into a rout early?
I think that's really important for several reasons. The first, obviously, is our sanity as fans -- I can hardly handle the anxiety of the tournament anymore as is, and I don't need that kind of pressure in the first round. Belmont and VCU were enough for a lifetime. Secondly, it would be great to send a message early that we're ready to kick butt and take names. Thirdly, a blowout could only add to the team's developing confidence, and would allow guys like the Plumlees and Andre Dawkins, in particular, to get their feet wet without a lot of game pressure. And, hopefully, it could get our shooters on a roll. Finally, for those who believe in such things as the importance of game minutes on fatigue, it could buy the players some rest. Me? I don't think playing time matters at all. But being able to rest guys can't be a bad thing, either, and obviously helps prevent against injuries.

4) How will the games be called?
I imagine this will be an issue for as long as Duke is in the tournament. There are three key areas where I will be anxious to watch what the refs do, and whether (if Duke is able to advance to the second round) there is any consistency from game to game. The first, obviously, is everything Brian Zoubek does. Will the refs target him on his screens? Nail him going for rebounds? Or will they realize -- as the ACC refs finally seemed to understand late in the year -- that just because he's taller than everyone, it doesn't mean he's fouling them.
The next issue is what happens when Duke's guards attack the basket. We've been lamenting all season that Scheyer isn't getting the calls on drives he used to get. Will that change with some less familiar refs? If he -- and Nolan and Kyle -- can get to the line on some of those drives where there's contact but not always a call, that will really help. Just look what Kyle's attacking style meant against Georgia Tech.
Finally, I'm also interested in how they call the three perimeter players on D, particularly Nolan. He's strong and quick, but lately has found himself in a bit of foul trouble. So, too, has Kyle. Needless to say, all three of those guys have to avoid foul issues, but they also have to play great defense, and that means being physical at times. It will be interesting to see how much contact they're allowed on the perimeter.

5) Are the Plumlees (and Dawkins) on a legit upswing?
Every time I want to believe that they've turned a corner and won't look back, they regress a bit. But I was really encouraged by what I saw out of all three guys in the ACC tournament. I don't expect consistent performances from all three guys from game to game. But I hope we've reached a point where at least one can bring it every night and give Duke a different option off the bench. Duke was a legit 8-deep against Georgia Tech, and more importantly, had a variety of options to throw at the other team. If these guys continue to get better at doing the simple things (hustling back in transition, focusing on defensive assignments, screening), the bigger things will come. And Duke can continue to get better.

6) How quickly will Coach K be willing to make major adjustments?
If Duke is struggling on D, will he be quicker to go "Orange" than in the regular season? Will he be more willing to change assignemnts? If Duke is having trouble scoring, will he go to the small lineup with Andre in the game and Kyle at the 4 more liberally? Will he run some different sets? Exploit Kyle (or even Jon) in the post? K is a loyal guy, and tends to stick with what has worked all year. I hope Duke plays so well that we never even have to see him adjust. But if things aren't working as planned, I'm interested to see how willing he is to alter the game plan.

7) How will the team react under intense game pressure?
Scheyer's shot against Georgia Tech was a good sign. But the previous few possessions weren't, nor was the late-game defense. Who will step up and make it a mission to get a stop? And at the other end, I'm not concerned about a guy wanting to take a shot -- because clealry Jon, Kyle and Nolan all have that gusto in them. I'm concerned about the team's discipline in running their sets well, moving the ball in tight scenarios, working to get the best shot possible. Guys have a tendency to try to do things themselves in those situations; I want these guys to trust each other and make plays for one another in tight spots.

8) Has conference play masked what this Duke team really is?
That's a strange thing to say, I know. But other than the Tulsa game, Duke has played familiar faces for a long stretch now. Sometimes that makes a team look better, sometimes worse. And we really don't know how good the ACC is. But I do know that the ACC had a lot of similar teams this year -- physical, plenty of size in the post, not a ton of great guards, not much ability to spread the floor at every position. And, as a result, it's a little tougher to picture how Duke will match up against certain teams in the tourney. We all have a pretty good picture of what Duke looks like by now, but I'm wondering how similar that will be against non-conference opponents at this point in the season, and whether Duke can impose its will on the opposition, rather than the other way around.

I have plenty of other thoughts and concerns, but let's stick with these for now. Go Duke!

devildownunder
03-16-2010, 01:31 AM
6) How quickly will Coach K be willing to make major adjustments?
If Duke is struggling on D, will he be quicker to go "Orange" than in the regular season? Will he be more willing to change assignemnts? If Duke is having trouble scoring, will he go to the small lineup with Andre in the game and Kyle at the 4 more liberally? Will he run some different sets? Exploit Kyle (or even Jon) in the post? K is a loyal guy, and tends to stick with what has worked all year. I hope Duke plays so well that we never even have to see him adjust. But if things aren't working as planned, I'm interested to see how willing he is to alter the game plan.

7) How will the team react under intense game pressure?
Scheyer's shot against Georgia Tech was a good sign. But the previous few possessions weren't, nor was the late-game defense. Who will step up and make it a mission to get a stop? And at the other end, I'm not concerned about a guy wanting to take a shot -- because clealry Jon, Kyle and Nolan all have that gusto in them. I'm concerned about the team's discipline in running their sets well, moving the ball in tight scenarios, working to get the best shot possible. Guys have a tendency to try to do things themselves in those situations; I want these guys to trust each other and make plays for one another in tight spots.

8) Has conference play masked what this Duke team really is?
That's a strange thing to say, I know. But other than the Tulsa game, Duke has played familiar faces for a long stretch now. Sometimes that makes a team look better, sometimes worse. And we really don't know how good the ACC is. But I do know that the ACC had a lot of similar teams this year -- physical, plenty of size in the post, not a ton of great guards, not much ability to spread the floor at every position. And, as a result, it's a little tougher to picture how Duke will match up against certain teams in the tourney. We all have a pretty good picture of what Duke looks like by now, but I'm wondering how similar that will be against non-conference opponents at this point in the season, and whether Duke can impose its will on the opposition, rather than the other way around.

I have plenty of other thoughts and concerns, but let's stick with these for now. Go Duke!

Well, history suggests that K will make substantial changes -- if he feels they're warranted -- between games but not so much within games, apart from tweaks at halftime.

Also, I'm a believer in the idea that what teams have shown in the composure department all year is about what you are going to get during the postseason. That means, based on this season, I don't expect Duke to fall apart at crunch time but I don't expect them to all execute like fifth-year seniors working on their 3rd or 4th trip to the FF either. It's been up and down, I think that will continue.

As for the last, you nailed the key issue -- we haven't seen many small, quick, talented teams this year. Potentially Villanova and Louisville (arguably anyway) could provide such a test in our region. There may be others. We could see the Cardinals in the second round and I really don't know that we have much of a body of work to examine to know if we're ready to deal with it. We certainly can't be any worse at it than the nova game last year, though, so things have to improve. And Nova probably isn't as good this year.

OldSchool
03-16-2010, 01:59 AM
2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
I hate rumors and speculation. I don't believe for a second that he was sick at the ACC tourney, and have no idea how that started. Then again, somehow after the loss to West Virginia in 2008, people became convinced that the whole team had the flu because Coach K was sick -- that ended up being a complete myth.
You guys also know that I don't buy the fatigue argument. Scheyer is just in too good shape, with a ridiculous VO2 max score, to suddenly be exhausted.
But something is definitely wrong. The best way to put it is that he just doesn't look like himself, and that was particularly true in the ACC tourney. He's not moving the same way. His mechanics look off on his shot. His ball handling is a bit shakier. Even his FT shooting has been off by his standards.
The only piece of remotely hard evidence we have to go on is Coach K's comment from a few weeks ago about some kind of a back injury. I don't know what's up with that, but I do know that I never like hearing about back problems, because they have a tendency to linger. And maybe that explains why I feel like he's moving differently. At the risk of going too far off track, I'll throw this to our resident body expert, Greybeard, and ask about his comment that Jon seemed to be "dragging his left leg," and whether that could really stem from a back problem.
Hopefully, of course, this is nothing physical. Of course that means that things are mental, and in some ways, that's a tougher problem to fix. The bottom line is that Duke needs Jon Scheyer to play like Jon Scheyer soon, to really succeed in the NCAA tournament. And I'm hoping that the first-round game will be easy enough for him to get his feet back under him, and maybe even break out, Gardner-Webb style. If he could get back to the way he looked at that time of the year, when he was controlling the game in all facets of basketball, things would be really, really good. And speaking of which ...

I have not bought the physical fatigue argument, but I do have a concern about mental fatigue.

I believe there is somewhat of an emotional fatigue potential with such a long season and so much pressure on Jon in particular as a senior, the point guard and scoring leader. And not even so much pressure by others but pressure that Jon is placing on himself to achieve the team's goals for this season.

He handles it magnificently, but the season is a long series of stressful, high-pressure games, including several in pre-conference play and pretty much every ACC game, especially the road games.

My advice: Take a couple or three days off from thinking about basketball. Do something mentally different and refreshing, like go bowling or play a new video game or read an interesting book.

Play loose and alert and hard and enjoy it. That is the most one can do, and ultimately the result is in the hands of the Almighty anyway. Control what you can control, and release yourself from the burden of things beyond your control.

Now back to basketball. I think the critical success factor for Duke in this tournament will be help defense and transition defense. If everyone, especially the Plumlees and Andre, can focus like a laser beam on immediate help rotations and recovery and hustling on transition defense, I expect that with our depth and three-headed scoring potential we will be in a good position for success against any opponent.

sagegrouse
03-16-2010, 10:01 AM
2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
I hate rumors and speculation. ...
But something is definitely wrong. The best way to put it is that he just doesn't look like himself, and that was particularly true in the ACC tourney. He's not moving the same way. His mechanics look off on his shot. His ball handling is a bit shakier. Even his FT shooting has been off by his standards.



I am not worried in the least. Scheyer is a Point Guard, an enabler on offense, and the a guy that scores when he has to. With Kyle playing like a 1st team A-A, there is not nearly as much need for Jon to try and carry the team.

His shooting has been off a bit, but that's the way it goes. He seems to make them when he has to.

sagegrouse

superdave
03-16-2010, 12:44 PM
Defense is our bread and butter. I do think you will see orange and zone for 2-3 possessions at a time when/if we get deeper into the tournament. It's a great change of pace if we're not matching up well, one guy is beating us too much or if the pace is being dictated to us.

To the extent our bench can play D effectively, we can and should be within striking distance of every team in the country. I dont see us losing in a blow out if our D is there.

On offense, Kyle has really carried the team for stretches lately, and I expect that to continue which helps Jon. Andre and Zoubek are the two guys whose points will be needed to beat equal or better teams.

I am still deathly afraid of teams with strong guards who can spread us out.

Wander
03-16-2010, 12:57 PM
With Kyle playing like a 1st team A-A, there is not nearly as much need for Jon to try and carry the team.

I don't really agree. Singler IS playing like an All-American right now, but to win games against the really good opponents, we're going to need more than just Singler and a bunch of complimentary scorers. We'll need Scheyer and Nolan to be effective scorers as much as ever. Balance among those three is what got us where we are.

The fact that Scheyer was surprisingly bad at controlling a few end-of-shot-clock situations during the tournament makes me think that there's no physical problem, and that he just had a poor stretch of games for no particular reason. Hopefully that changes with a few days rest and an easy first round opponent.

Durhamrocks68
03-16-2010, 01:05 PM
I think Jon is the key. For whatever reason, he has been in a bit of a slump over the last few weeks. As always, he's playing hard, but he doesn't seem to be be as locked in as he was earlier in the year. Hopefully, that last HUGE shot he hit has got him confident and ready for an amazing last-run in the NCAAs. If he gets back to playing like he was earlier in the year, Duke can make the FF.

Saratoga2
03-16-2010, 01:36 PM
I agree that Jon's game has deteriorated in the last part of the season and the ACC tournament. Probably the defense and intensity that Scheyer has had to deal with has increased. Also, in away games, there is the unfamiliar court. Both may play a part, but since most aspects of his game have deteriorated a little, I also wonder what is going on with him. I also think back to last year and realize that his game and shooting was down a little at the end of the season. Maybe that is just my bad memory, but that is how I remember it.

The thing most striking is his lack of expression. Maybe the grind on him of leading the team is taking an emotional toll. Some sports psychologist or other qualified person might offer an insight in that area.

My hope is that he is really given rest and time away from BB until at least Thursday. We need Jon at his sharpest to advance through the really tough teams.

Other: I have seen Andre growing in skill and confidence during the last couple of weeks. Obviously, coach K sees that too. Yes, there still are defensive lapses, but not as often. He also might take a bad shot from time to time, but he may also have learned from watching tape of that. Mason and Miles both played harder but still made mistakes and in addition, Miles has a lot of trouble catching the ball. He seems to be thinking what move to make rather than that he first must secure the ball. I don't think he lacks hand eye co-ordination or is weak with the ball, just rushing things. Both Miles and Mason can really help this team and are on the verge of doing so.

MChambers
03-16-2010, 01:43 PM
I also think back to last year and realize that his game and shooting was down a little at the end of the season. Maybe that is just my bad memory, but that is how I remember it.
I think your memory is a little off, since he was MOP of the ACC tournament, as I recall.

CDu
03-16-2010, 01:48 PM
I think your memory is a little off, since he was MOP of the ACC tournament, as I recall.

Yeah, Scheyer's massive shooting slump was in the middle of the season.

sagegrouse
03-16-2010, 02:07 PM
I don't really agree. Singler IS playing like an All-American right now, but to win games against the really good opponents, we're going to need more than just Singler and a bunch of complimentary scorers. ....

My point was different -- even if poorly expressed. Is this better?

"With Kyle playing like a 1st team A-A, there is not nearly as much opportunity for Jon to ... carry the team."

This is more nearly what I meant. While the PG is not the scorer of last resort, if Kyle and Nolan are on a tear, then he takes more of a role in distributing the ball.

However, I am impressed that everyone else here seems to believe that Jon is in a slump. Although first-team All-Tournament ain't too bad.

sagegrouse

CDu
03-16-2010, 02:16 PM
My point was different -- even if poorly expressed. Is this better?

"With Kyle playing like a 1st team A-A, there is not nearly as much opportunity for Jon to ... carry the team."

This is more nearly what I meant. While the PG is not the scorer of last resort, if Kyle and Nolan are on a tear, then he takes more of a role in distributing the ball.

However, I am impressed that everyone else here seems to believe that Jon is in a slump. Although first-team All-Tournament ain't too bad.

sagegrouse

The concern is that Scheyer didn't really take on an expanded role of distributing the ball in the ACC tourney. In fact, in the GT game, he played even more OFF the ball than usual, with Smith taking on more of the primary ballhandling duties.

That, combined with the shaky dribbling, some sloppy passes, and of course the low shooting percentage, is what led me to be concerned about either sickness or injury. To be honest, I'm not sure whether I hope it is physical or mental, as I don't know which would be easier to fix. If it was just a bad cold, that'd be the best, as then he'd probably be over it by Friday. But if its a back injury or something mental, who knows?

And even with Singler being at A-A level, there has been (and will continue to be) plenty of opportunity for Scheyer to take on a major scoring role. This can be evidenced by the fact that Scheyer took 17, 10 and 13 shots in the ACC tournament.

As for believing or not believing Scheyer is in a slump, I don't see how you can reasonably conclude other than that he's slumping. He's shot 33% or worse from the field in 7 of his last 9 games, and has only been above 40% in one of his last 8 games. Now, because he's such a terrific player (and in part because he's a high-volume player for us), he's managed to remain an effective player and still score 15+ points most nights. But he's most certainly been in a slump in terms of FG% (31.7%) and scoring efficiency (1.09 pps).

Jumbo
03-16-2010, 06:04 PM
I have not bought the physical fatigue argument, but I do have a concern about mental fatigue.

I believe there is somewhat of an emotional fatigue potential with such a long season and so much pressure on Jon in particular as a senior, the point guard and scoring leader. And not even so much pressure by others but pressure that Jon is placing on himself to achieve the team's goals for this season.

He handles it magnificently, but the season is a long series of stressful, high-pressure games, including several in pre-conference play and pretty much every ACC game, especially the road games.

My advice: Take a couple or three days off from thinking about basketball. Do something mentally different and refreshing, like go bowling or play a new video game or read an interesting book.

Play loose and alert and hard and enjoy it. That is the most one can do, and ultimately the result is in the hands of the Almighty anyway. Control what you can control, and release yourself from the burden of things beyond your control.

Now back to basketball. I think the critical success factor for Duke in this tournament will be help defense and transition defense. If everyone, especially the Plumlees and Andre, can focus like a laser beam on immediate help rotations and recovery and hustling on transition defense, I expect that with our depth and three-headed scoring potential we will be in a good position for success against any opponent.

I don't think mental fatigue can account for the fact that he literally looks different in his movements on the court. The mechanics of his shot seem off, he's not moving as much without the ball, his ball-handling is a little shakier, he's not jumping the passing lanes with his usual quickness and anticipation. He just looks ... "off." No other way to really phrase it. And we absolutely need Scheyer, Singler and Smith at the top of their games to be a great team.

Greg_Newton
03-16-2010, 06:25 PM
I don't think mental fatigue can account for the fact that he literally looks different in his movements on the court. The mechanics of his shot seem off, he's not moving as much without the ball, his ball-handling is a little shakier, he's not jumping the passing lanes with his usual quickness and anticipation. He just looks ... "off." No other way to really phrase it. And we absolutely need Scheyer, Singler and Smith at the top of their games to be a great team.

I'm curious - maybe I'm going crazy - but it did it seem to anybody else like Scheyer was moving like his old self for the first ~3 minutes of the GT game? He just seemed to have that extra gear and one-step-ahead-of-the-action quality back for a couple minutes, then it disappeared. Maybe I was seeing things.

I still think the most likely issue is a nagging lower back problem. It would affect all of the above areas, and could also account for how he could "turn it on" for short stretches when we really need it. But most of all, he just looks like someone who's playing through lower-back pain... the way he never really fully extends in a sprint or explodes/twists in a fast-twitchy kind of way anymore.

Hopefully he's just saving himself for the tournament... or something...

YourLandlord
03-16-2010, 06:26 PM
I don't think mental fatigue can account for the fact that he literally looks different in his movements on the court. The mechanics of his shot seem off, he's not moving as much without the ball, his ball-handling is a little shakier, he's not jumping the passing lanes with his usual quickness and anticipation. He just looks ... "off." No other way to really phrase it. And we absolutely need Scheyer, Singler and Smith at the top of their games to be a great team.
Wouldn't a variety of symptoms in many different areas be indicative of mental fatigue? After all, your brain controls everything -- your decisions, your movement, etc. Mechanics of his shot because he's thinking about his struggles or other game stuff, not thinking of good moves to make, not anticipating jumping passing lanes, etc.

MChambers
03-16-2010, 06:57 PM
Wouldn't a variety of symptoms in many different areas be indicative of mental fatigue? After all, your brain controls everything -- your decisions, your movement, etc. Mechanics of his shot because he's thinking about his struggles or other game stuff, not thinking of good moves to make, not anticipating jumping passing lanes, etc.

It would be, but Jon has always done a great job with the mental part of the game (except for that silly second foul against Miami). He still is playing great defense, too.

That awkward layup against Miami makes me think it's physical. Let's hope a few days off work wonders.

WiJoe
03-16-2010, 07:16 PM
Great job Jumbo. Really good perspective.

Saw in the Chicago Tribune sports "Around Town" column that Jon and Kyle were seen at a breakfast place in Deerfield (pretty close to Jon's home), presumably yesterday (Monday, maybe 16 hours after selection show). I find this VERY hard to believe.

Anybody think this likely?

:eek:

Jumbo
03-16-2010, 08:40 PM
Great job Jumbo. Really good perspective.

Saw in the Chicago Tribune sports "Around Town" column that Jon and Kyle were seen at a breakfast place in Deerfield (pretty close to Jon's home), presumably yesterday (Monday, maybe 16 hours after selection show). I find this VERY hard to believe.

Anybody think this likely?

:eek:

Yeah, that makes absolutely no sense. There's no way the players went home.

Newton_14
03-16-2010, 10:15 PM
It's hard to believe we've reached this point in the season, but the NCAA tourney always has a way of sneaking up on you. And so it is that it's time to discuss Phase VI, which we'll define as the opening (extended) weekend of the NCAA tournament. It's tempting, since we know Duke's potential opponents, to focus on game-specific stuff and keys to particular victories. But I want to keep this in the spirit that I've always done the Phase posts -- bigger picture questions. That said, if Duke is fortunate enough to advance through the first two rounds and into the second weekend of the tournament, I imagine some questions will be repeated. And certainly the first one will, because it's been in that spot all year.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I think you all realize that, by now, I view this as a pretty important factor with this team.

2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
I hate rumors and speculation. I don't believe for a second that he was sick at the ACC tourney, and have no idea how that started. Then again, somehow after the loss to West Virginia in 2008, people became convinced that the whole team had the flu because Coach K was sick -- that ended up being a complete myth.
You guys also know that I don't buy the fatigue argument. Scheyer is just in too good shape, with a ridiculous VO2 max score, to suddenly be exhausted.
But something is definitely wrong. The best way to put it is that he just doesn't look like himself, and that was particularly true in the ACC tourney. He's not moving the same way. His mechanics look off on his shot. His ball handling is a bit shakier. Even his FT shooting has been off by his standards.
The only piece of remotely hard evidence we have to go on is Coach K's comment from a few weeks ago about some kind of a back injury. I don't know what's up with that, but I do know that I never like hearing about back problems, because they have a tendency to linger. And maybe that explains why I feel like he's moving differently. At the risk of going too far off track, I'll throw this to our resident body expert, Greybeard, and ask about his comment that Jon seemed to be "dragging his left leg," and whether that could really stem from a back problem.
Hopefully, of course, this is nothing physical. Of course that means that things are mental, and in some ways, that's a tougher problem to fix. The bottom line is that Duke needs Jon Scheyer to play like Jon Scheyer soon, to really succeed in the NCAA tournament. And I'm hoping that the first-round game will be easy enough for him to get his feet back under him, and maybe even break out, Gardner-Webb style. If he could get back to the way he looked at that time of the year, when he was controlling the game in all facets of basketball, things would be really, really good. And speaking of which ...

3) Can Duke turn it's first-round game into a rout early?
I think that's really important for several reasons. The first, obviously, is our sanity as fans -- I can hardly handle the anxiety of the tournament anymore as is, and I don't need that kind of pressure in the first round. Belmont and VCU were enough for a lifetime. Secondly, it would be great to send a message early that we're ready to kick butt and take names. Thirdly, a blowout could only add to the team's developing confidence, and would allow guys like the Plumlees and Andre Dawkins, in particular, to get their feet wet without a lot of game pressure. And, hopefully, it could get our shooters on a roll. Finally, for those who believe in such things as the importance of game minutes on fatigue, it could buy the players some rest. Me? I don't think playing time matters at all. But being able to rest guys can't be a bad thing, either, and obviously helps prevent against injuries.

4) How will the games be called?
I imagine this will be an issue for as long as Duke is in the tournament. There are three key areas where I will be anxious to watch what the refs do, and whether (if Duke is able to advance to the second round) there is any consistency from game to game. The first, obviously, is everything Brian Zoubek does. Will the refs target him on his screens? Nail him going for rebounds? Or will they realize -- as the ACC refs finally seemed to understand late in the year -- that just because he's taller than everyone, it doesn't mean he's fouling them.
The next issue is what happens when Duke's guards attack the basket. We've been lamenting all season that Scheyer isn't getting the calls on drives he used to get. Will that change with some less familiar refs? If he -- and Nolan and Kyle -- can get to the line on some of those drives where there's contact but not always a call, that will really help. Just look what Kyle's attacking style meant against Georgia Tech.
Finally, I'm also interested in how they call the three perimeter players on D, particularly Nolan. He's strong and quick, but lately has found himself in a bit of foul trouble. So, too, has Kyle. Needless to say, all three of those guys have to avoid foul issues, but they also have to play great defense, and that means being physical at times. It will be interesting to see how much contact they're allowed on the perimeter.

5) Are the Plumlees (and Dawkins) on a legit upswing?
Every time I want to believe that they've turned a corner and won't look back, they regress a bit. But I was really encouraged by what I saw out of all three guys in the ACC tournament. I don't expect consistent performances from all three guys from game to game. But I hope we've reached a point where at least one can bring it every night and give Duke a different option off the bench. Duke was a legit 8-deep against Georgia Tech, and more importantly, had a variety of options to throw at the other team. If these guys continue to get better at doing the simple things (hustling back in transition, focusing on defensive assignments, screening), the bigger things will come. And Duke can continue to get better.

6) How quickly will Coach K be willing to make major adjustments?
If Duke is struggling on D, will he be quicker to go "Orange" than in the regular season? Will he be more willing to change assignemnts? If Duke is having trouble scoring, will he go to the small lineup with Andre in the game and Kyle at the 4 more liberally? Will he run some different sets? Exploit Kyle (or even Jon) in the post? K is a loyal guy, and tends to stick with what has worked all year. I hope Duke plays so well that we never even have to see him adjust. But if things aren't working as planned, I'm interested to see how willing he is to alter the game plan.

7) How will the team react under intense game pressure?
Scheyer's shot against Georgia Tech was a good sign. But the previous few possessions weren't, nor was the late-game defense. Who will step up and make it a mission to get a stop? And at the other end, I'm not concerned about a guy wanting to take a shot -- because clealry Jon, Kyle and Nolan all have that gusto in them. I'm concerned about the team's discipline in running their sets well, moving the ball in tight scenarios, working to get the best shot possible. Guys have a tendency to try to do things themselves in those situations; I want these guys to trust each other and make plays for one another in tight spots.

8) Has conference play masked what this Duke team really is?
That's a strange thing to say, I know. But other than the Tulsa game, Duke has played familiar faces for a long stretch now. Sometimes that makes a team look better, sometimes worse. And we really don't know how good the ACC is. But I do know that the ACC had a lot of similar teams this year -- physical, plenty of size in the post, not a ton of great guards, not much ability to spread the floor at every position. And, as a result, it's a little tougher to picture how Duke will match up against certain teams in the tourney. We all have a pretty good picture of what Duke looks like by now, but I'm wondering how similar that will be against non-conference opponents at this point in the season, and whether Duke can impose its will on the opposition, rather than the other way around.

I have plenty of other thoughts and concerns, but let's stick with these for now. Go Duke!

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
This is critical, and will be to the end. Keep holding our collective breath!

2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
Well, the best thing about this is he found a way to contribute despite the struggles. But had Jon been on his game, all 3 of those ACC Tourney games would have been blowouts. I have believed for a couple of weeks now that it is the back. The best piece of evidence I have to offer to base my thinking on is Jon's early shot attempts in the UVA game. We were no more than 5 or 6 minutes into that game, fresh off of a 5 day rest and he got absolutely no lift at all on his first two 3point attempts. No way that was fatigue no matter what Mr Elmore thinks. I suffered from a mysterious lower back injury my Sr year in High School and trust me it impacts everything you try to do on a basketball court. It would come and go without warning, and for me it lasted about 2 weeks during that season and then went away as mysteriously as it came. I made it through the rest of that basketball and baseball seasons and it came back again during summer baseball. Hopefully if Jon has something similar it will go away for him with whatever treatment they have him on and he can make it through 6 games.


4) How will the games be called?
It is very important for the refs to call Zoubs the way he has been called down the stretch and not pick on him with ticky tack stuff. I think we benefit if the refs let'em play and let players decide games. The more physical the better. We thrive in games like that.

5) Are the Plumlees (and Dawkins) on a legit upswing?
I was very encouraged by all 3 in the ACC tourney. Mason driving the length of the floor and hitting Miles for the lob dunk was sweet. He made it look so easy and effortless. All 3 played better defense and cut down on the mistakes. And all 3 can help this team take it up a level or two very easily even if we just get a wee little bit of extra offense from all 3 and good rebounding, defense, and shotblocking from Mason and Miles. Should either one have a "breakout" performance in any of the games to compliment the upperclassmen this team would be extremely difficult to beat.


7) How will the team react under intense game pressure?
Aside from the bad execution on offense milking the clock late in the games, I was very impressed with how the entire team managed the pressure of the tourney. That is a really good sign heading into the Big One. I was especially impressed with the Miami game. The 17-2 run was brutal. Everything was going against them. The refs were horrible, and they could not get a call to go their way on either end of the court. Miami was knocking down shots and hit the all important momentum building 3 at the half to take the lead. Our guys responded really well coming out of halftime. Even though we could never fully put them away rout style by like 15 or more (and as I said above, with a normal Jon we do) we held Miami off and got the job done.

Our guys have now been tested, hard, on a neutral court, in a tournament setting. They are well prepared to handle the upcoming game pressure that will surely come.

3) Can Duke turn it's first-round game into a rout early?
I wanted to address this one last. I am very glad to see that it is not just me. I have been shell-shocked since the Belmont game. Even the ACC tourney games were hard. Last year at the 4 minute mark of the Texas game for the first time ever I had to walk away from the TV and go to another room. As for the Nova game, I did not make it past halftime. I think we all need, in a very big way, a nice deep run in this tourney with a few blowouts in the early games. We are all sick to death of hearing about the struggles since 2004 from the media and when some were hoping for a 2 seed just so it would be less heat if we were upset early again, it is time for a good dose of medicine. And the best possible medicine is huge Duke wins in the early games and 4 straight double figure wins to make the Final 4. I am glad we got the 1 Seed and I hope the team is ready to rock and the deep run comes to fruition. I don't care how our bracket shakes out and if it goes like the ACC tourney and the better teams lose before reaching us, well great. Works for me.

An early rout in game 1 will do wonders for the team and for us. Bring it on!

mike88
03-16-2010, 10:30 PM
3) Can Duke turn it's first-round game into a rout early?
I wanted to address this one last. I am very glad to see that it is not just me. I have been shell-shocked since the Belmont game. Even the ACC tourney games were hard. Last year at the 4 minute mark of the Texas game for the first time ever I had to walk away from the TV and go to another room. As for the Nova game, I did not make it past halftime. I think we all need, in a very big way, a nice deep run in this tourney with a few blowouts in the early games. We are all sick to death of hearing about the struggles since 2004 from the media and when some were hoping for a 2 seed just so it would be less heat if we were upset early again, it is time for a good dose of medicine. And the best possible medicine is huge Duke wins in the early games and 4 straight double figure wins to make the Final 4. I am glad we got the 1 Seed and I hope the team is ready to rock and the deep run comes to fruition. I don't care how our bracket shakes out and if it goes like the ACC tourney and the better teams lose before reaching us, well great. Works for me.

An early rout in game 1 will do wonders for the team and for us. Bring it on!

I expect a relatively low stress first game, but after that, I don't think we have seen anything this year that would indicate we can expect any more blow-outs or even "easy" victories -- away from Cameron, that is just not how we have played this year, and our opponents from the second round on will be as good as any other team we have played and beaten at neutral sites or away.

Newton_14
03-16-2010, 10:42 PM
I expect a relatively low stress first game, but after that, I don't think we have seen anything this year that would indicate we can expect any more blow-outs or even "easy" victories -- away from Cameron, that is just not how we have played this year, and our opponents from the second round on will be as good as any other team we have played and beaten at neutral sites or away.

Well we did beat Gonzaga by 40 on a neutral court, so that is one small piece of evidence. And we also beat UConn, Iowa St, and Arizona St by good margins on a neutral court as well. The ACC Tourney games were all close ones for sure.

I think their is evidence on both sides of that coin. It mainly depends on the shooting to be honest. If we play defense the way we have down the stretch we will be in every game. If we play that defense and shoot the ball well it swings toward much easier wins. I certainly don't expect "easy" wins after game 1. That is not what I was saying. But it could certainly happen if the strong defense is there and shots are falling.

mike88
03-16-2010, 11:17 PM
Well we did beat Gonzaga by 40 on a neutral court, so that is one small piece of evidence. And we also beat UConn, Iowa St, and Arizona St by good margins on a neutral court as well. The ACC Tourney games were all close ones for sure.

I think their is evidence on both sides of that coin. It mainly depends on the shooting to be honest. If we play defense the way we have down the stretch we will be in every game. If we play that defense and shoot the ball well it swings toward much easier wins. I certainly don't expect "easy" wins after game 1. That is not what I was saying. But it could certainly happen if the strong defense is there and shots are falling.

Gonzaga was certainly a dominant performance, although I might argue they are weaker than their 8 seed suggests. Other than that, the other three games that you cite were against teams that did not make the tournament and are not as good as the teams that are current 8/9 seeds - we just haven't played many games against good teams on neutral courts- GT in the ACC finals is probably the best example. But you never know . . . I would love a 15 point win in Round 2, but I am not expecting it. I would prefer, however, if it didn't come down the last possession!

duk3
03-16-2010, 11:18 PM
i too think that jon doesn't look quite like he did earlier in the season, and while i would think that it might be the sore back that was mentioned not too long ago, two recent interviews with coach k speak otherwise.

right before the north carolina game he said that jon had played with a sore back for a few weeks but that it is better now. he said that he didn't talk about it because he didn't want jon to have it in his head that the sore back would affect his play and also because he didn't want to opponents to know that jon had a sore back. if the back was still sore, i think that coach k would have just kept on not talking about it rather than specifically mentioning it.

the second time he talked about jon, this time about his shooting in the acc tournament, was today at the media availability where he opened by saying that they are healthy. he said that based on tape he watched of the games with jon, that he noticed that there was nothing wrong with the shot, but perhaps preparation, not practice or anything just the way he was preparing himself within the course of the game to shoot the ball, was his issue. he cited the times that he had nothing to focus on but shooting were the times that he was most accurate. he also dismissed the tired legs theory because he made the shots at the end.

i know that this doesn't mean that jon's back isn't bothering him for sure, but it is some information that gives evidence to another cause.

however, i also agree with those who say that he just looks tighter. and jumbo, to the question as to whether a back problem, and lower in particular, can cause you to drag your leg, it most certainly can. i have had multiple family members with herniated discs which have pushed on the sciatic nerve, which can cause pain of different levels of severity or numbness in either or both legs which can cause the person to drag the leg that is affected. i am not suggesting this is what happened with jon, but even muscle constriction can put pressure on the sciatic nerve and cause the same leg issues.

my apologies for long post, i didn't set out to say this in so many words, but i just wanted to add my two cents to the jon issue, a player that i like to watch and truly hope gets back on track

Spam Filter
03-16-2010, 11:52 PM
For me, 8 is the biggest question mark.

The ACC simply did not have a lot of great guards this year. Particular the kind that can break down defense off the dribble.

I think this masked a lot of our deficiencies. We still have issues with this and with transition defense. Can we actually contain a team with quick perimeter players who are play makers?

I have my doubts.

Kedsy
03-17-2010, 12:00 AM
For me, 8 is the biggest question mark.

The ACC simply did not have a lot of great guards this year. Particular the kind that can break down defense off the dribble.

I think this masked a lot of our deficiencies. We still have issues with this and with transition defense. Can we actually contain a team with quick perimeter players who are play makers?

I have my doubts.

Well we beat Wake Forest, UConn, and Miami (twice), and these three teams all have guards as quick as any we'll encounter before the Final Four, so I disagree that quick perimeter players are a problem area for us this year. I've said it approximately 14291 times, but I remain convinced it is a style of play issue (4-out, 1-in) and not a quickness of guards issue.

Wander
03-17-2010, 12:04 AM
Well we beat Wake Forest, UConn, and Miami (twice)

Those are two non-tournament teams, and one borderline tournament team with one quick guard who can't shoot. They're nothing compared to what Baylor or Villanova would throw at us.

But, if you switch "before the Final Four" to "before the Elite 8," I'd totally agree with you.

Spam Filter
03-17-2010, 12:08 AM
They're quick, but they aren't that good.

2 of those teams didn't make the tourney and one is a 10 seed.

I am talking about upper echelon teams with guards who are quick and are play makers.

And I do not necessarily disagree with your 4 out in 1 argument. But the reason that style of play creates problem for us is that we have to send one of our bigs out to guard on the perimeter, opening up the inside of dribble drives.

One of the reason dribble penetration hasn't hurt us as much as years past is because when they get past our perimeter we have 2 tall players waiting for them inside bothering their shots.

Basically any team that has 4s and 5s who can make 15 jumpers and force our big men to go out and guard them is going to give us problems.

Kedsy
03-17-2010, 12:12 AM
Those are two non-tournament teams, and one borderline tournament team with one quick guard who can't shoot. They're nothing compared to what Baylor or Villanova would throw at us.

But, if you switch "before the Final Four" to "before the Elite 8," I'd totally agree with you.

Well, I was going to say that, and I changed it to Final Four because I wasn't suggesting Wake, UConn or Miami are as good as anyone we'll face in the tournament (other than APB), just that they have very quick guards.

For the past five years before this year, quick penetrating guards were our problem; it's hard to deny that. But if people continue to say it's true this year they simply aren't paying attention, because it isn't. The fact is none of our losses this season came at the hands of teams with super-quick guards. It's just another anti-Duke myth.

Kedsy
03-17-2010, 12:16 AM
Basically any team that has 4s and 5s who can make 15 jumpers and force our big men to go out and guard them is going to give us problems.

Well, I'm not sure about 15 feet (might be true, might not), but I'd definitely agree if you said 18 feet. But who among our potential opponents has 4s and 5s who can do that regularly?

pfrduke
03-17-2010, 12:17 AM
Well, I'm not sure about 15 feet (might be true, might not), but I'd definitely agree if you said 18 feet. But who among our potential opponents has 4s and 5s who can do that regularly?

Cal.

Kedsy
03-17-2010, 12:18 AM
They're quick, but they aren't that good.

That's true, but NC State is neither good nor particularly quick. Yet they beat us handily. They do have something in common with Georgetown, Wisconsin, and last year's Villanova team, however. And that's why I don't think quick guards are the problem.

Kedsy
03-17-2010, 12:19 AM
Cal.

Which makes me wonder why everyone is so afraid of Louisville. That 8/9 game could be a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment.

pfrduke
03-17-2010, 12:20 AM
Cal.

To elaborate, they spend a not insignificant amount of time with Theo Robertson, a 44.4% 3-point shooter, as the 4 (with Randle, Gutierrez, and Christopher) and Boykin or Amoke as the 5. That's a severely undersized lineup, but they run with it. It'll be a big matchup issue on both sides of the court.

pfrduke
03-17-2010, 12:23 AM
Which makes me wonder why everyone is so afraid of Louisville. That 8/9 game could be a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment.

I think we could match-up ok with Cal. Thomas would be the key - he can guard Robertson/Christopher on the perimeter just fine, but I'm not sure Mason can. If he got in foul trouble, it would really change how we played.

Alternatively, if Dawkins has his game on, we can simply match them more traditionally and play 10-15 minutes with Kyle at the 4.

Spam Filter
03-17-2010, 12:24 AM
Cal worries me a lot.

CDu
03-17-2010, 09:02 AM
I think we could match-up ok with Cal. Thomas would be the key - he can guard Robertson/Christopher on the perimeter just fine, but I'm not sure Mason can. If he got in foul trouble, it would really change how we played.

Alternatively, if Dawkins has his game on, we can simply match them more traditionally and play 10-15 minutes with Kyle at the 4.

The issue isn't necessarily the ability to guard the face-up 4 (or face-up 5). It's the lack of the extra defender/rebounder around the basket.

One of the main reasons (and someone else noted this as well) that the 4-out, 1-in gives us trouble is because it leaves us more exposed to dribble penetration. Against teams who play 2 post guys, we have two big bodies crowding the lane defensively if someone drives. Against a 4-out, 1-in strategy, there is only one defender protecting the rim.

Thomas can certainly defend Robertson, and Boykin isn't a Tracy Smith-like problem on the blocks. But the concern is that by pulling Robertson (and thus Thomas) away from the basket, it's easier for Randle (who is VERY quick and talented) and Christopher (also very good) more room to work to attack off the dribble.

This is a big part of why (along with Smith having a great performance) we lost to NC State. They spread the floor and Degand and Gonzalez were regularly able to get into the lane.

CDu
03-17-2010, 09:09 AM
Which makes me wonder why everyone is so afraid of Louisville. That 8/9 game could be a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment.

I think Cal is definitely the bigger concern. They're a MUCH better offensive team than Louisville, and they play the style that gives us trouble. Their offense would almost certainly give us trouble unless they have a bad shooting night.

However, it's important to note that they'd probably not be able to keep us from scoring either. They don't rebound, and they don't defend terribly well. We'd have a huge size advantage, and would probably get lots of second-chance opportunities.

So a game with Cal would likely be a fairly high-scoring matchup.

I think Louisville is the better matchup. Cal has the two best offensive players of the two teams and has more weapons in general (though Louisville has the best interior player), and Cal has the type of offense that gives us trouble. And Louisville rebounds even worse than Cal.

greybeard
03-17-2010, 10:15 AM
I'm curious - maybe I'm going crazy - but it did it seem to anybody else like Scheyer was moving like his old self for the first ~3 minutes of the GT game? He just seemed to have that extra gear and one-step-ahead-of-the-action quality back for a couple minutes, then it disappeared. Maybe I was seeing things.

I still think the most likely issue is a nagging lower back problem. It would affect all of the above areas, and could also account for how he could "turn it on" for short stretches when we really need it. But most of all, he just looks like someone who's playing through lower-back pain... the way he never really fully extends in a sprint or explodes/twists in a fast-twitchy kind of way anymore.

Hopefully he's just saving himself for the tournament... or something...

I'm not so sure that it is painful as such, but something is out of whack, stuck on his left side. Saw it rather plainly in the Tech game, like when he moved his pelvis to move his left leg it looked effortful, purposeful, out of sync. Undoubtedly does not feel good, might even ache a bit, but we have not seen one grimace from the guy which makes me believe it is not the type of thing that produces any sharp spikes. From my own experiences, when something is out of whack like that it can be very annoying, and to perform through it requires lots of concentration. Yes physical and mental accuity are of one piece and it has to be mentally fatiguing--everything he does requires more attention than normal.

RepoMan
03-22-2010, 09:48 AM
I am very glad that we have yet another Phase to discuss.

Jumbo
03-24-2010, 03:27 PM
Before looking ahead to Phase VII (yay!), it's time to look back at the questions posed before Phase VI.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
Some guys are still banged up a bit, but thankfully it seems like no one suffered any kind of a new injury, and everyone is still in the lineup. Keep knocking on wood.

2) What's up with Jon Scheyer?
There's an entire thread devoted to this issue, so there's no point in delving in deeply here. Obviously, though, after shooting pretty well against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the Cal game was not a fun time for Jon and his jump shot. Here's hoping he turns things around this weekend.

3) Can Duke turn its first-round game into a rout early?
Yes! And I think it helped illluminate some things with the younger guys, which I'll get to in a bit.

4) How will the games be called?
So far, pretty loosely. I'm most concerned about Zoubek, and he was allowed to do his thing on the boards for the most part. I don't think he was called for a single moving screen. It could change at any point, but the early signs were promising. Duke was playing small teams, though, so it'll be interesting to see what happens if Duke matches up with a team with more size, one that attacks the rim relentlessly or one that has quick, phyisical guards who like to pressure the perimeter (and maybe clutch and grab, too).

5) Are the Plumlees (and Dawkins) on a legit upswing?
Miles: Definitely. Mason: Somewhat. Andre: Not really.
Miles has done an excellent job on the defensive boards -- not just establishing position but really elevating to grab the ball at its apex. He is doing a better job of recognizing his team defensive responsibilities. He's hustling back in transition D much better. And on offense, I'm comfortable with his shooting midrange jumpers now. Mason has made the same transition D/defensive rebounding strides as his brother. He's still a bit lost on offense and isn't quite as in tune with his defensive responsibilities either, but overall, he is doing much better job of adapting to his role and playing it to the best of his abilities. Andre obviously had a rough outing against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and the quickness/strength/experience of Cal's perimeter players made that a terrible matchup for him. Like the other two guys, he needs to simplify the game. In Dawkins' case, that means hitting open jump shots and defending with great concentration and attention. He doesn't have to attack the rim unless there's a wide open path to the basket.

6) How quickly will Coach K be willing to make major adjustments?
Thankfully, we never had to find out an answer to this.

7) How will the team react under intense game pressure?
This is basically the same deal as the question above. The closest we came to an answer was when Cal cut the lead to 7 early in the second half. And Duke responded with back-to-back baskets by Brian Zoubek, the first of which was a tip-in.

8) Has conference play masked what this Duke team really is?
In an odd way, that's definitely true. Duke faced so many similar teams in the ACC -- plenty of size, so-so guards -- that we were all afraid of what might happen against a team that could spread and drive and pressure the ball. Instead, as I mentioned, Duke imposed its will, and our size advantage looked even bigger than we realized. Suddenly, multiple guys were scoring on the block. Lance Thomas was making plays going to the basket. The interior passing was good, highlighted by that great cut by Singler to catch a beautiful dish by Lance for an easy layup. I though Cal's offense would test us, but our D was as strong as ever. Granted, Duke will have to beat better teams than Cal to win a title, but the first weekend was a really nice first step. This team keeps getting better, and was already better than many people realized.

I'll be back with Phase VII later today.