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Jumbo
03-11-2010, 07:12 PM
Welcome to Phase V: The ACC Tournament! It's a short phase even if Duke reaches the finals -- three games in three days. And it could be even shorter, obviously, if things don't work out. But it's also a great opportunity for growth/learning. Remember that in last year's ACC Tourney, Nolan Smith got back into a rhythm after a midseason slump and then a concussion, and really became a more important player down the stretch than Elliot Williams. With that in mind, here's what I'll be wondering about during this period.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
Are you guys sensing a theme yet?

2) Can Duke get easy baskets?
One of the things that has gone under the radar a bit is that Coach K has slowed this team down more in ACC play. In OOC games, Duke has averaged 70.3 possessions per game. Against ACC opponents, that has slowed to 65.8. That's a big difference. This is obviously by design -- Coach K is calling more sets, having Scheyer walk the ball up the court, etc., because this team (particularly the starting five) seems built for half-court basketball. A consequence of that, though, has been easy baskets. It will be interesting to see if, under tourney pressure, Coach K further tightens the reins and discourages fast breaks, particularly in light of the trouble Duke's had in transition defense. If that happens, though, that places an even heavier burden on Earth, Wind and Scheyer to execute in the half-court, with thelp from the Brian Zoubek Screening Experience.

3) Can Duke's transition defense improve?
I'm looking directly at you, Plumlee brothers. To go along with Question 2, if Duke is going to be a superior half-court, defense/rebounding team, it can't let teams leak out, especially given the fact that we crash the offensive boards hard. Most guys are doing their job in terms of getting back, but as we all saw for a while (and as Coach K then illustrated against UNC), Mason and Miles have not been as good in this area. They must hustle back on D every single play.

4) Is there a surprise performer ready to emerge in Greensboro?
We've seen this before -- Coach K has given guys more run in the ACC Tourney. Granted, he played Singler and Scheyer virtually the entire game each night last year, but the year before, he was making Blue Team/White Team subs. And other guys, from Daniel Ewing to Nolan Smith, have stepped up and contributed. This year, the list of possible surprises is small -- basically the Plumlee brothers and Andre Dawkins. But three games (hopefully) in three days is a great opportunity for a young player to find a rhythm.

5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
We've been through this conversation in different threads, speculating about a cause. Is it whatever back injury Coach K mentioned? The lack of calls on his drives? Anticipating fouls that aren't coming? Either way, in his last six games, Scheyer is shooting just .313 from the field and .358 from 3-point range. We all know he's better than that. We also know he was great in last year's ACC Tourney. Seems like the perfect time to find his stroke again.

6) Speaking of shooting, how will Duke look on a neutral floor?
K has said -- a bunch of times -- that this is not a great shooting team (despite it's high offensifve efficiency rating) and that it will rely on defense and rebounding to win. That said, it has the potential to be a terrific shooting team on a given night. And we've talked for a while about Duke's home/road splits, so it will be an interesting test to play on a neutral court for the first time in a while. How will the rims look from deep?

7) Has Brian Zoubek earned respect?
I suspect I'll be asking the same question in the next phase, too, but I mean this in a couple of different ways. First and foremost, I'm looking at the refs. He has played consistently well for a good stretch now. Does that earn him the benefit of the doubt on some of those ticky-tack calls that have plagued him throughout his career? Because Duke needs him on the court as much as possible. And what about from opponents? Will they start to change their defensive game plans to keep him off the offensive boards? If so, what opportunities will that create for Duke that weren't available before? There's always a trade-off. And, finally, what about from his teammates? In Duke's offense, his biggest job is to screen and chase boards, and those are critical jobs -- people pay way too much attention to who takes a shot, rather than to how a shot is created. That said, that jump hook on the baseline sure was nice, and he's been more confident with the ball. Will his teammates trust him a bit more to feed him the ball in scoring position?

8) Will Nolan Smith see the light?
His passing/court vision has been a crazy line graph all season. It started out poorly, peaked around late December/early January and has declined recently. He's missing open guys on drive-and-kick opportunities. For this team to reach its full potential, he must resist the urge to force floaters and keep his head up and find the open man. I think Singler had as big a problem in this area until very recently, when he has taken really good shots off his middle drives (either pullups or sweeping runners that look very comfortable for him) while stopping early enough when he's doubled to find an open teammate. He can still get much better, but I'm seeing improvement. But Nolan is obviously the quickest player on the team, and if he could just make a slightly better commitment to sharing the basketball, the team would be even better.

9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
Duke will have had five off days between the Carolina game and tomorrow's opener against UVA. That's a ton of time during a college season, and plenty of opportunity for K to tweak the team's execution. We've already seen some changes at various points in the year -- more motion, etc. One I've followed closely is running Kyle into the post. I called for it earlier in the year, and we've seen it much more in the second half of the season. Against Maryland, when things were tight, Duke wen there a lot. I wonder if K will design some new sets to get him the ball on the block against smaller players. Similarly, I wonder if K will throw in a few new options for the smaller lineup with Dawkins in the game and Kyle at the 4, now that Andre has worked his way back into the rotation. It will be nice to have that lineup as a more viable option if we're struggling, facing a smaller, quicker team or matching up against a zone.

Finally, it's tough because we've seen all these teams before. The good news is that Duke has proven that it can play against teams with size, because there are so many ACC teams with big front lines this year. The bad news is Duke still hasn't had much of a chance to go against teams who can really spread the floor at every position. Maryland and NC State might be the closest thing to that in the ACC, and we saw that against Wisconsin, too. Those types of teams concern me in the NCAA Tourney (amazing how much things can change in a year) and it would just be interesting to see Duke go up against a team like that before the Big Dance. Unfortunately, the ACC Tourney doesn't allow for that opportunity. So, instead, let's go out and get a trophy. To win the Preseason NIT, Regular Season ACC Title and ACC Tourney Title would be an incredible accomplishment. Obviously, we're all looking at something bigger down the road, but this is an important event and a great opportunity for this team to cement a lasting legacy. So let's go get 'em.

ACCBBallFan
03-11-2010, 08:11 PM
With UVA severely undermanned without Landesberg and Baker, perhaps coach K can save the new wrinkles for the other two games to truly catch somebody by surprise.

VA Tech caught a break not having to play Wake, but Miami instead.

That bottom bracket with MD, FSU, Clemson, GA Tech and UNC tonight in first half at least until GA Tech 7-0 run to start second half,looks much tougher. So a new wrinkle for the survivor in the ACC finals would come in handy.

superdave
03-11-2010, 08:29 PM
Thanks, Jumbo. Always thoughtful...

I keep pinching myself to see if Zoubek's leap is permanent. It appears to be. He's playing with better footwork on both screens and post moves, while not pushing and reaching. Here's hoping he rubs off on the Plums!

As for Mason and Miles, transition D is a big deal. We are such a tough half court D team that you can tell when coaches decide to push the tempo so we cannot set up. Those two guys will get minutes, but the minutes wont be quality without help side D and getting back in transition. They seem to understand that based on recent news articles.

Finally, I think Jon's shooting % is very important, but could it be evidence of both bad rhythm to start games and tired legs at the end? Or is it just a mini-slump like last year? My recommendation is to always get in the lane and draw fouls whenever the jumper is not falling.

Super "We still have not peaked yet" Dave

jv001
03-11-2010, 10:09 PM
Two things I expect to see in the ACC Tournament:
1. Jon will get hot just like last year.
2. Surprise player will be Andre with a big game before the tourney's over.
Go Duke!

Verga3
03-11-2010, 10:50 PM
Insightful and relavent as usual, Jumbo. Nice post.

1. Stay Healthy? Fingers crossed....this is key.

2. Easy Baskets? Predict Duke D will create many fastbreak opportunities.

3. Improve Transition D? Agreed. Miles and Mason will need to get back.

4. Greensboro Surprise Performer? Miles....because Zoubs is no longer a surprise.

5. Jon's Stroke? Even if he comes in at 40%, believe we will be okay given his supporting cast, and the fact that he adds so much more in leadership and guts on the floor.

6. Greensboro Sightlines (shooting)? Have heard from more than one source how much we like playing in the Greensboro Coliseum, neutral court or not.

7. Is Zoubek Respected? Most definitely. If he stays out of early foul trouble, as he has of late, we are tough to beat.

8. Nolan Assists? Like his penetration and agree he needs his head on a swivel, but love to see him finish. At this point in the year I have no alternative but to trust Nolan.....and I do.

9. Coach K Wrinkles? Completely agree with your comments on continuing to flash Kyle through the post and utilizing Dre with Kyle at the 4. This will potentially deepen our go-to sets as we move into post-season....and the more impact Dre has, the better we will be.

GO DUKE!!!

sagegrouse
03-11-2010, 11:53 PM
Jumbo et al.:

It seems to me that ACC teams used the full court press against Duke, trying to take 15 seconds off the clock and limit the chance to work the offense. It also tended to result with the speedy Nolan handling the ball rather than the surer Jon. This tactic also limits the number of Duke possessions.

Am I imagining this, or is this one reason that the number of possessions declined?

sagegrouse

Jumbo
03-12-2010, 12:43 AM
Jumbo et al.:

It seems to me that ACC teams used the full court press against Duke, trying to take 15 seconds off the clock and limit the chance to work the offense. It also tended to result with the speedy Nolan handling the ball rather than the surer Jon. This tactic also limits the number of Duke possessions.

Am I imagining this, or is this one reason that the number of possessions declined?

sagegrouse

It's interesting that a tactic associated with playing fast (pressing and trapping) can, in fact, slow a team down. Indeed, a number of ACC teams have tried various types of pressure against Duke, but I don't think the goal has been to slow Duke down. It's been more about taxing Duke's thin backcourt. Granted, this strategy may have limited possessions, but I think Duke would have looked to play a half-court game anyway.

Dukeface88
03-12-2010, 01:49 AM
I think Dre is poised for a breakout. He's playing better D, and his shot finally seems to be coming back. He's 6-10 from the field over the last three games. The last time he hit two in one game was against Penn; he's now done it for three games in a row. If he does get on a hot streak though, it's hard to say where he'd get minutes from.

Bob Green
03-12-2010, 04:59 AM
Welcome to Phase V: The ACC Tournament! It's a short phase even if Duke reaches the finals -- three games in three days.

I absolutely love the ACC Tournament and hope we win the title. This three game phase is a critical phase, which will validate this team's successful regular season and simultaneously prepare us for the Big Dance.


1) Can Duke stay healthy?

The importance of this theme is illuminated by a great big spotlight - the injury to Syracuse's Arinze Onuaku in their loss to Georgetown. We need to continue to avoid the injury bug.


2) Can Duke get easy baskets?
It will be interesting to see if, under tourney pressure, Coach K further tightens the reins and discourages fast breaks, particularly in light of the trouble Duke's had in transition defense. If that happens, though, that places an even heavier burden on Earth, Wind and Scheyer to execute in the half-court, with help from the Brian Zoubek Screening Experience.

I have extreme confidence in our starting five due to their experience. Duke has the most experience in its starting line-up of any team inthe ACC. However, I really hope Coach K doesn't discourage fast breaks. I want us to play under control, and I have no problem with the strategy of beating the press and then slowing into a half court set rather than attempting to push to score, but we need to run with the ball when the opportunity presents itself. While we don't need to go out and try to run our opponent out of the gym, we cannot go out and completely avoid uptempo play.


3) Can Duke's transition defense improve?
I'm looking directly at you, Plumlee brothers....They must hustle back on D every single play.

We need the Plumlee brothers on the court! They are athletic and skilled and the key components to our depth. However, transition defense is a problem with the Plumlees and it needs to be resolved sooner rather than later. Miles and Mason are both players who can score points and rebound but they haven't completely "got it" yet in regard to defense and especially transition defense. We cannot afford to get beat in transition now that tournament time has arrived and the Plumlees "getting it" is an essentially element if we are going to be successful in the post season.


4) Is there a surprise performer ready to emerge in Greensboro?
We've seen this before -- Coach K has given guys more run in the ACC Tourney.

Well we have no shortage of potential suprise performers. Zoubek erupting with back-to-back-to-back double-double games, Dawkins stroking it from behind the arc three games in a row, or the Plumlees playing like they did against Wake Forest are all realistic possibilities.


5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
Seems like the perfect time to find his stroke again.

Scheyer was the ACCT MOP last year and it wouldn't suprise me if he puts together three great games again this season. It is crunch time, the games are getting tougher, and I'm confident Scheyer will respond with some gutty performances.


6) Speaking of shooting, how will Duke look on a neutral floor?
K has said -- a bunch of times -- that this is not a great shooting team....How will the rims look from deep?

The good news is we were 4-0 on neutral courts during the regular season. The bad news is we shot .398 from the field (100/251) in those four games. That is 4.5 percentage points behind our regular season field goal percentage of .443 (836/1887). I'd really be happy to see us shoot good in Greensboro.


7) Has Brian Zoubek earned respect?
First and foremost, I'm looking at the refs.... Does that earn him the benefit of the doubt on some of those ticky-tack calls that have plagued him throughout his career?.... And what about from opponents? Will they start to change their defensive game plans to keep him off the offensive boards?....And, finally, what about from his teammates?....Will his teammates trust him a bit more to feed him the ball in scoring position?

The emergence of Zoubek this year provides Duke with a dominant inside presence. He has become a rebounding machine who gives Duke bonus possessions through his work on the offensive glass so it is imperative he stay out of serious foul trouble and on the court. Defensively, Zoubek's block off Deon Thompson's shot at about the 18:00 minute mark of the second half illustrates his poetential to influence the game. Offensively, he mainly scores points via putbacks but he can score via good movement of the ball. Singler and Zoubek combined for a very nice baseline drive and dish to the low post against Carolina at about the 16:50 minute mark. I believe it is important for Zoubek to score the ball off of passes as well as putbacks in order for him to maximize his impact on the offensive end of the court.


8) Will Nolan Smith see the light?
For this team to reach its full potential, he must resist the urge to force floaters and keep his head up and find the open man.

My perception is Duke looks at its best in the games in which Smith excells. This is strictly a qualitative analysis as I haven't (and I'm not going to) compared statistics and attempted to quantitatively substantiate my perception. In order for Duke to dominate, Smith needs to be at the top of his game.


9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
Duke will have had five off days between the Carolina game and tomorrow's opener against UVA. That's a ton of time during a college season....I wonder if K will throw in a few new options for the smaller lineup with Dawkins in the game and Kyle at the 4, now that Andre has worked his way back into the rotation.

Dawkins seems to have found his stroke in recent games and that is great news for Duke. He has shown he can be a deadly shooter and his defensive performance has been solid the past few games. The next improvement Dawkins needs to make (and maybe he has already made it) is his handle. I desire to see Duke play Dawkins with Singler at the 4 anytime our opponent tries to run a fullcourt press. With his long range stroke and ability to get to the rim, Dawkins can be a key component against a pressing opponent if his handle can hold up. More Dawkins is the wrinkle I hope to see the next three games.

Saratoga2
03-12-2010, 08:00 AM
One strategy that I thought resulted in giving up easy baskets and fouls to opponents was the use of a press to try to turn opponents over. One of our approaches was to use Mason in the opponents end to assist our guards, presumably due to his length and quickness. We also used Lance and at times both Singler and Miles. It didn't work well, as the press was broken and we were faciing 3 on 2 situations where we were frequently beat or had to foul. Perhaps that is where some of the issues that Mason and Miles have getting back on defense originated. We are too good at the half court defense and rebounding to try to press. In addition, that puts extra stress on our backcourt. My preferred approach is for our guards to apply moderate pressure as the ball is brought up, without opening ourselves up to fast breaks or disadvantage situations.

As far as Scheyers shooting goes, he has missed a lot of shots inside and has been the one taking the desperation shots in many cases. His 3 point shooting has suffered but not as much as inside. I don't know what has been going on with him, but we do need a reasonable shooting percentage from him to go far in the tournaments.

NSDukeFan
03-12-2010, 09:39 AM
It's interesting that a tactic associated with playing fast (pressing and trapping) can, in fact, slow a team down. Indeed, a number of ACC teams have tried various types of pressure against Duke, but I don't think the goal has been to slow Duke down. It's been more about taxing Duke's thin backcourt. Granted, this strategy may have limited possessions, but I think Duke would have looked to play a half-court game anyway.
I think this has been a strategy from the coaching staff. The most obvious example was the Clemson game, but I think most games where the team has been pressed, they have become more deliberate on offense to make sure of a good shot each time, even if there were advantage situations (3-on-2, especially.)

One strategy that I thought resulted in giving up easy baskets and fouls to opponents was the use of a press to try to turn opponents over. One of our approaches was to use Mason in the opponents end to assist our guards, presumably due to his length and quickness. We also used Lance and at times both Singler and Miles. It didn't work well, as the press was broken and we were faciing 3 on 2 situations where we were frequently beat or had to foul. Perhaps that is where some of the issues that Mason and Miles have getting back on defense originated. We are too good at the half court defense and rebounding to try to press. In addition, that puts extra stress on our backcourt. My preferred approach is for our guards to apply moderate pressure as the ball is brought up, without opening ourselves up to fast breaks or disadvantage situations.

I agree in that the team didn't create a lot of turnovers from pressure and Mason earlier in the year had difficulty getting back from his lead position in the press. My impression has been that Mason is much better defending from the top of the press now and that hasn't been the situation where he has had trouble getting back defensively. I also don't recall too many situations where teams have scored quickly off of the press. I recall more situations of teams scoring quickly off missed shots more so than when we have been pressing.

I absolutely love the ACC Tournament and hope we win the title. This three game phase is a critical phase, which will validate this team's successful regular season and simultaneously prepare us for the Big Dance.

I agree. This is a great time of year.



1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I think Bob highlighted this well, and the Robbie Hummel injury is another great example of the importance of point #1.



2) Can Duke get easy baskets?
I hope so, but don't have great expectations for a lot of transition hoops at this point of the year. Jon does clearly look to push off rebounds and even off made baskets, but the team hasn't seemed to get too many opportunities this way as seen by the lower number of possesions per game. Fortunately, I do have great confidence in Nolan and Jon making good decisions on the break. If there aren't too many fast break chances (most teams defend in transition better this time of year), hopefully the team gets its easy chances from great offensive rebounding as highlighted by
the Brian Zoubek Screening Experience. (I like that line.)



3) Can Duke's transition defense improve?
I think the Plumlees are getting better at help-side D and have a greater awareness of where to be on the floor. The problem of course is that this time of year, possessions become even more important and mistakes in getting back or missing a rotation are highlighted. Hopefully, our most athletic big men can improve their defensive consistency so they can provide some shot blocking, shot altering, alley-ooping, offensive rebounding, occasional scoring presence.

4) Is there a surprise performer ready to emerge in Greensboro?
I think we are all hoping to see our young guys have a good tournament. The talent is there and we know they will be good to great players and it would be great to see some more of that this year.


5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
Even when Jon isn't shooting his best, he seems to have a tendency to hit a big shot when we need it. I have confidence Jon will have another great tournament. Except for one game (Villanova), Jon seems to play well at the end of the year.


6) Speaking of shooting, how will Duke look on a neutral floor?
Fortunately, we have played well on neutral courts this year, but that has been more due to great defense and rebounding. It would be nice to be able to add solid shooting to this list.


7) Has Brian Zoubek earned respect?
I think the respect Brian has earned from the refs has, unfortunately, been a large part of his turnaround. He has been given a little more latitude and hasn't been called for as many cheap fouls as earlier in the year. I would say this may be one of the biggest keys for the rest of the season. Can Brian play physical and stay on the floor? If this is the case, our team is much stronger. I also like that he has been getting touches in the post and makes good decisions from there. I hope this continues and even increases. If he is running around all over the place, setting screens and going after all the rebounds, I think he deserves a few touches in the post as well.


8) Will Nolan Smith see the light?
He moves the ball really well from the perimeter, hopefully he will make some nice passes and good decisions on his drives.


9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
Isn't it nice to be considering this as opposed to some other schools where if the personnel don't match the system a poor season could result? I look forward to some new wrinkles in, hopefully, the next 9 games.


The bad news is Duke still hasn't had much of a chance to go against teams who can really spread the floor at every position. Maryland and NC State might be the closest thing to that in the ACC, and we saw that against Wisconsin, too. Those types of teams concern me in the NCAA Tourney (amazing how much things can change in a year) and it would just be interesting to see Duke go up against a team like that before the Big Dance.
I wonder how many teams have 4 players who can shoot from the perimeter going forward? I wonder how the team will prepare for teams with a perimeter shooting big man who can handle the ball on a team with some quick guards who can penetrate and shoot? I don't know if there are many teams that meet that criteria, but certainly Wisconsin and Georgetown do. [/QUOTE]
So, instead, let's go out and get a trophy. To win the Preseason NIT, Regular Season ACC Title and ACC Tourney Title would be an incredible accomplishment. Obviously, we're all looking at something bigger down the road, but this is an important event and a great opportunity for this team to cement a lasting legacy. So let's go get 'em.[/QUOTE]
Agree completely. It's been a great season so far and some hardware would make it even better.

MChambers
03-12-2010, 09:58 AM
One strategy that I thought resulted in giving up easy baskets and fouls to opponents was the use of a press to try to turn opponents over. One of our approaches was to use Mason in the opponents end to assist our guards, presumably due to his length and quickness. We also used Lance and at times both Singler and Miles. It didn't work well, as the press was broken and we were faciing 3 on 2 situations where we were frequently beat or had to foul. Perhaps that is where some of the issues that Mason and Miles have getting back on defense originated. We are too good at the half court defense and rebounding to try to press. In addition, that puts extra stress on our backcourt. My preferred approach is for our guards to apply moderate pressure as the ball is brought up, without opening ourselves up to fast breaks or disadvantage situations.
I've almost never been impressed with Duke's full court press, except for a brief period in 1999. I think we've always been much effective in half court. Don't know why we aren't better at full court pressure, but I don't really think it matters, as long as we don't try it too often.

mehmattski
03-12-2010, 11:05 AM
I think the respect Brian has earned from the refs has, unfortunately, been a large part of his turnaround. He has been given a little more latitude and hasn't been called for as many cheap fouls as earlier in the year. I would say this may be one of the biggest keys for the rest of the season. Can Brian play physical and stay on the floor? If this is the case, our team is much stronger. I also like that he has been getting touches in the post and makes good decisions from there. I hope this continues and even increases. If he is running around all over the place, setting screens and going after all the rebounds, I think he deserves a few touches in the post as well.


I think this is pretty unfair. Zoubek's ability to stay mobile on offense and his offensive rebounding abilities have been there this whole season. It's true that his reduction in fouls has resulted in being a much bigger part of Duke's success, since he's been on the floor more.

However, I think the foul reduction has been a solid, conscious improvement on Brian's part. He has improved his positioning under the basket, resulting in fewer "over the back" calls on rebounds. He has improved his positioning on screens, resulting in fewer moving pick violations. In fact, my observations have been that the ticky-tack fouls have not stopped, and he is called for fouls when his man drags him out to the perimeter and then tries to drive past Zoubek.

Those kinds of plays are still Brian's weakness, but the improvement we have seen in the big guy is almost certainly due to an effort to reduce the obvious fouls. Putting it on the refs is a disservice to that effort.

NSDukeFan
03-12-2010, 11:13 AM
I think this is pretty unfair. Zoubek's ability to stay mobile on offense and his offensive rebounding abilities have been there this whole season. It's true that his reduction in fouls has resulted in being a much bigger part of Duke's success, since he's been on the floor more.

However, I think the foul reduction has been a solid, conscious improvement on Brian's part. He has improved his positioning under the basket, resulting in fewer "over the back" calls on rebounds. He has improved his positioning on screens, resulting in fewer moving pick violations. In fact, my observations have been that the ticky-tack fouls have not stopped, and he is called for fouls when his man drags him out to the perimeter and then tries to drive past Zoubek.

Those kinds of plays are still Brian's weakness, but the improvement we have seen in the big guy is almost certainly due to an effort to reduce the obvious fouls. Putting it on the refs is a disservice to that effort.

I guess I didn't word that well, but I thought Brian didn't deserve a lot of the fouls he was getting earlier in the year and think he may have been able to contribute earlier in the season if he hadn't been called for some less than obvious fouls of "there was contact and he is the biggest guy, it must be his foul." I don't doubt that he has made an effort to be in better position and feel his foot movement has been greatly improved, but I still cringe whenever I hear the whistle and Brian is nearby as I feel he has been called for way more than his share of cheap fouls, that were not always deserved. I also think he should have a few more charge calls his way this year, where he seems to have clearly established position, outside any theoretical dotted line, prior to an offensive player jumping, and still gotten a blocking call. Frustrating.

JamminJoe
03-12-2010, 11:32 AM
Great analysis, although I'm surprised to not see any mention of the potential 3 games in 3 days possibility, although that issue does get beaten to death all the time. We're gonna need Andre to step up and provide steady minutes in each game. I actually feel pretty good with Duke's inside game with Zoubek just playing incredible ball lately and the fact that we just need one of Lance, Miles, or Mason to make a decent contribution per game.

It feels great this year to not have had the February slump. We didn't have this last year either, but this time last year Scheyer was still a newbie at the point. Let's go Duke!

greybeard
03-12-2010, 11:54 AM
I think that Zoubek's increased performance is due in significant part to some screening schemes that the coaches have deployed. They seem to change, not necessarily from game to game, but maybe that often. A tribute to the coaches and all the players, especially Z, but also the others whose movements are changed due to changed sequences.

"Changed sequences" in my parlance include a change in the angle of a screen for someone in the corner/wing position, and also its placement. For example, one game, the little might drift toward the corner and come in toward the basket slightly and the screen might be a foot or two away on an angle that permits a near roll towards the paint for a pull up or layup. Z will then rotate up top, sometimes immediately to a high/tight screen, sometimes to pause at the foul line, etc.

This, to me, is one of the more extraordinary aspects of Duke's season. I have seen nothing like it in my years of watching basketball. Maybe the wild man late in his career in Chicago but that was a small part of the Bull's offense. Here, the screen game is integral to most everything Duke does.

If Z gets the respect from the refs that he deserves, Duke is very, very formidable.

BTW, I think that Miles gets some awful, I mean truly awful calls against him when he has the ball and makes a move. I mean awful. Refs, players don't have to earn fair treatment; it's your job. Do it!

Kedsy
03-12-2010, 11:55 AM
I desire to see Duke play Dawkins with Singler at the 4 anytime our opponent tries to run a fullcourt press. With his long range stroke and ability to get to the rim, Dawkins can be a key component against a pressing opponent if his handle can hold up.

I really like the three-guards and Kyle at the 4 to give us a very different offensive look than our usual. However, facing a full-court press is one situation where I think Lance has to be on the floor. He has done so well helping to break the press this season; I wouldn't replace him with a freshman.

NSDukeFan
03-12-2010, 12:03 PM
I really like the three-guards and Kyle at the 4 to give us a very different offensive look than our usual. However, facing a full-court press is one situation where I think Lance has to be on the floor. He has done so well helping to break the press this season; I wouldn't replace him with a freshman.

I think this is one area that Mason has been pretty solid in as well. I think Mason has mostly made good decisions when we have been pressed and he has been in.

mike88
03-13-2010, 04:25 AM
I think the key to us winning Saturday and Sunday will be whether Nolan and Kyle can have a breakout offensive performance. I am counting on Jon to handle the ball, minimize turnovers, get assists and hit open shots. But I think either Nolan or Kyle will need to step up with a big game for us to curt down the nets.

Saratoga2
03-13-2010, 07:25 AM
I think Scheyer needs to get his shooting percentage up. Some have said the wear and tear of the season has tired him. I don't really buy into that but do think he looked tired during the game. That might have come from a bad night's sleep, worry over school work or many other possibilities. I also think that players can get into a feeling of negativity which can result in a slump. It happens all the time in baseball. Positive thinking begets positive results. It may also be troubling Scheyer since his slump has persisted.

As far as Miles is concerned, he still has trouble catching the ball in traffic down low. I also don't like the way Miles and Mason tend to slap the rebounds out rather than bring them down with two hands. We lost most of the ones that we slapped out with one leading to a fast break. They are still gaining confidence and clearly have a lot of improvements needed ahead.

Jumbo
03-15-2010, 01:23 AM
I'll try to get to Phase VI at some point on Monday, but first it's time for a quick look back at Phase V.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
Well, there was one flying Singler, another gimpy wrist (LT), whatever is bothering Scheyer(?), but the bottom line is everyone is still playing. That's all we can ask for.

2) Can Duke get easy baskets?
We didn't see that much in the ACC Tourney. Duke played a methodical, half-court game for the most part, occasionally turning live-ball turnovers into buckets. But Duke had to work for its points.

3) Can Duke's transition defense improve?
Yes, by and large it was much better. In particular, the Plumlees did a better job of getting back, which had been the biggest issue.

4) Is there a surprise performer ready to emerge in Greensboro?
This might have been the best part of the ACC Tourney. Miles and Mason both played better than the had in a while. And Andre Dawkins is far from a consistent performer, but he did enough -- especially his brief spurt against G-Tech today -- to show that he can come through in a pinch if needed.

5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
Not yet. I have no idea what is going on. I don't buy "fatigue" as the issue, because he's never tired before late in the season (including last year, when he logged similarly heavy minutes) and he has that ridiculous VO2 Max score. Wish there was an easy answer, but I sure don't have one.

6) Speaking of shooting, how will Duke look on a neutral floor?
Duke still isn't connecting consistently from the outside. So the question then becomes whether this i just what we need to expect, or whether we should be excited about the fact that Duke can keep gutting out wins despite poor shooting and start to dream about everything coming together at the right moment.

7) Has Brian Zoubek earned respect?
I think so. Sure, he got in foul trouble in the first game, but for the most part the refs weren't calling him from ticky-tack stuff, his teammates trusted him (even though he wasn't given many scoring opportunities) and he seemed to draw more focus from the opposition.

8) Will Nolan Smith see the light?
I'm still not sure about this. His vision comes and goes in spurts. He still pounds the ball into the floor more than I'd like and still misses open teammates, but then he'll make the right kick and it will lead to a basket. He's not all the way there yet, but I still hope it's coming.

9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
I didn't see a lot of new stuff, except for the fact that K was willing to trust Dawkins for a longer stretch, used Mason and Miles late in the game and went with a bit more aggressive full-court D against Tech in spurts which helped make their turnover problems worse. As far as new offensive sets, though, nothing really stood out.

SCMatt33
03-15-2010, 02:00 AM
4) Is there a surprise performer ready to emerge in Greensboro?
This might have been the best part of the ACC Tourney. Miles and Mason both played better than the had in a while. And Andre Dawkins is far from a consistent performer, but he did enough -- especially his brief spurt against G-Tech today -- to show that he can come through in a pinch if needed.

5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
Not yet. I have no idea what is going on. I don't buy "fatigue" as the issue, because he's never tired before late in the season (including last year, when he logged similarly heavy minutes) and he has that ridiculous VO2 Max score. Wish there was an easy answer, but I sure don't have one.

7) Has Brian Zoubek earned respect?
I think so. Sure, he got in foul trouble in the first game, but for the most part the refs weren't calling him from ticky-tack stuff, his teammates trusted him (even though he wasn't given many scoring opportunities) and he seemed to draw more focus from the opposition.

9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
I didn't see a lot of new stuff, except for the fact that K was willing to trust Dawkins for a longer stretch, used Mason and Miles late in the game and went with a bit more aggressive full-court D against Tech in spurts which helped make their turnover problems worse. As far as new offensive sets, though, nothing really stood out.

4/9) I think the Plumlee's definitely looked a lot better this weekend (especially against GTech) than they had in a while. I think the reason, however, is better matchups. I just think that in general, the Plumlees are better against athletic big guys like Lawal and Favors compared to Thomas/Zoubek. Thomas and Zoubek have been much better against smaller teams and teams with more traditional big guys. Down the stretch this year, we played a lot of teams that fit the Thomas/Zoubek mold, UVA, Maryland, UNC (w/o Ed Davis) that made it look like the Plumlees were just playing bad, when I think that they just haven't learned how to dial it back against those kinds of teams. Against the big, athletic guys, it becomes necessary to go all out for block and make the bigger plays, which Lance and Z sometimes can't do. If we happen to make the elite 8 say and play Nova, we will see more Lance and Z than if we play Baylor for instance.

5) I tend to agree that fatigue is generally not a huge issue, but I will say that Scheyer has carried a heavier load this year, even if his minutes aren't much different. More concerning to me than just Scheyer, though, is that at the end of 5 of the six halves played this weekend (the second half against UVA is the exception), it was Duke's opponent controlling the game and making runs, with Duke just hanging on. I don't care what anyone thinks the reason is or isn't, this is a problem either way. I'd imagine that we might not be able to hold off such runs if we had been playing better teams this weekend.

7) I'm really glad to see Zoubek earning more respect on the court, and I think it stems first and foremost from his own confidence. When Zoubek is confident in his movements, it no longer "looks" like he is fouling, and he has earned respect from the refs because of it.

mehmattski
03-15-2010, 10:45 AM
9) What new wrinkles will Coach K add?
I didn't see a lot of new stuff, except for the fact that K was willing to trust Dawkins for a longer stretch, used Mason and Miles late in the game and went with a bit more aggressive full-court D against Tech in spurts which helped make their turnover problems worse. As far as new offensive sets, though, nothing really stood out.

I did see one new wrinkle: Brian Zoubek in the high post. In previous games with The New Zoubek™, the big guy would set a screen at the top of the key and then roll off into rebounding position. On multiple possessions during the G-Tech game, Zoubek would be in high screen position, but then he would receive a pass from Scheyer or Smith. This is a big departure from how the offense was run previously.

Now, Zoubek must look for a pass before he can peel out into rebounding position. On at least two of these possessions, the man he passed to shot the ball quickly, and Zoubek was left boxing out a guard, while Favors grabbed an easy rebound over one of our less-skilled rebounders. Zoubek still came away with four offensive rebounds in this game, but it was not nearly as many as he had been getting. I believe some of that to be due to Favors' defensive rebounding ability, but I believe Zoubek's altered role also was a factor.

mike88
03-15-2010, 06:31 PM
5) Can Jon Scheyer find his shooting efficiency again?
Not yet. I have no idea what is going on. I don't buy "fatigue" as the issue, because he's never tired before late in the season (including last year, when he logged similarly heavy minutes) and he has that ridiculous VO2 Max score. Wish there was an easy answer, but I sure don't have one.

6) Speaking of shooting, how will Duke look on a neutral floor?
Duke still isn't connecting consistently from the outside. So the question then becomes whether this i just what we need to expect, or whether we should be excited about the fact that Duke can keep gutting out wins despite poor shooting and start to dream about everything coming together at the right moment.


8) Will Nolan Smith see the light?
I'm still not sure about this. His vision comes and goes in spurts. He still pounds the ball into the floor more than I'd like and still misses open teammates, but then he'll make the right kick and it will lead to a basket. He's not all the way there yet, but I still hope it's coming.




I have yet to hear that Jon is/was sick or injured, but Duke doesn't always make such things public. It is also possible that there is a degree of mental and emotional fatigue that comes with the long season and the large responsibility that rests on Jon's shoulders. We forget sometimes because he handles it so well, but it is an immense responsibility, especially when you are a senior and you know that the season can end quickly for you and your teammates based on whether you have a good day or not. I am so impressed with Jon's resiliency- few players (at Duke or otherwise) could have stepped up like he did on his last 3 vs GT.

We also need to give credit to other teams' defenses- by this point, they all know that defending Jon is a top priority, and we have faced some pretty good defensive teams recently. I hope this week brings some rest for Jon and everyone else, and that Friday's game is not too stressful, as we will need all our energy for Sunday (and all the other games afterwards).

In terms of shooting, I think we are seeing about what we are going to get, but it would be great if all of our big three could get hot at the same time. If that doesn't happen, we really need Kyle and Nolan to be able to create for us. I think we will advance as far as they can carry us offensively.

Greg_Newton
03-15-2010, 07:27 PM
In my mind, the two biggest question marks for the final phase are Jon and Miles.

Jon could either be the attacking, one-step-ahead, playmaking, readmaking, deadeye, All-American level performer we know he can be... or he can be a slow-moving, tentative, sterotypical white guard that brings the ball up and doesn't add much to the offense but off-the-ball movement and a decent shot. I get the feeling Jon really, really wants to prove the doubters wrong and make a run in the tournament, so hopefully he'll get over what's ailling him and unleash one final stretch of brilliance on us.

(BTW, this is one example of when I really dislike Duke's super-secrecy policy. If I'm Jon, I would like my millions of fans and critics to have some awareness that I'm valiantly playing through sickness or pain rather than just not trying very hard. And honestly, what could it hurt? IMO, it's asking him to carry an unnecessary burden.)

Miles may not even be a question mark anymore, but it's sure tough to watch what's happening to him. The good news is he's really cut down on the cringeworthy defensive mistakes - he plays much more with his feet rather than upper body these days, and doesn't have as many lackadaisical moments where he floats around or doesn't get back. The bad news is that his former strengths seem to have disappeared... he's fumbling the ball too much to finish effectively, seems to have given up all attemps at interior moves, and is no longer a shotblocking threat.

This last development is the most confusing/troubling to me... he has the tools to be a quite intimidating weakside presence (and was on his way earlier in the season), but he doesn't even try anymore. Maybe he's just been drilled by the staff about giving up weakside rebounding position or something... I sure hope not, because if he's in the game, I want him trying to own the lane. He's not Lance Thomas; he needs to play to his strengths.

superdave
03-15-2010, 07:28 PM
In terms of shooting, I think we are seeing about what we are going to get, but it would be great if all of our big three could get hot at the same time. If that doesn't happen, we really need Kyle and Nolan to be able to create for us. I think we will advance as far as they can carry us offensively.

When the jumpers arent falling, we need to get to the rim. Kyle was exceptional at this against GT.

78Devil
03-15-2010, 07:39 PM
All of these posts sort of point to the same conundrum I've been thinking about --

On the one hand I would say we are indeed playing "better" in the last few weeks, as many people (including Coach K) have said, since we have seen Kyle come alive, Nolan step up in clutch situations,and decent albeit tentative improvement from Plumlees and Andre. And Zoub seems to be making progress on avoiding fouls.

On the other hand, we seem to be shooting poorly, especially Jon. And we've also seen in the last few weeks that those missed 3 point rebounds don't always fall into our hands, even if Zoub is in the right place.

So while I am encouraged that we have the depth to go far in the tournament, I don't think we will do so unless Jon's shooting percentage goes back up. I don't buy that its better defense on him. He's been missing even with good looks at the basket. Let's hope it is some degree of tiredness and not injury or a crisis of confidence. He can rest this week, but confidence just doesn't come back that easily.

MChambers
03-15-2010, 08:17 PM
I get the feeling Jon really, really wants to prove the doubters wrong and make a run in the tournament, so hopefully he'll get over what's ailling him and unleash one final stretch of brilliance on us.
From what we've seen and heard, Jon just wants to win and will do whatever it takes. I'm sure he knows that he hasn't been as effective recently and that is affecting the team's chances of going far.

mike88
03-15-2010, 08:42 PM
I am not sure we should expect a big change in Jon's shooting %. It is complicated b/c we have several things changing at once:

1) no more home games- Jon (and the rest of the team) shoot better at home than on neutral courts

2) better, more focused opponents - after the first round or two, we will see good-great defenses who will prepare for us and probably not give up many easy looks

3) the possibility of physical and emotional fatigue

If you look at Jon's shooting % after Jan 1, he is about a 33% shooter. I hope he has a couple of big shooting games, but I wouldn't count on that, and I don't think we need that per se to win. Jon does need to play great defense, continue to handle the ball without turning it over, and hit open shots and free throws. If he just does that, I think Nolan and Kyle can step up enough for us offensively.

I would say the key is Nolan, because if he is on, other teams can't focus on Kyle, and our offense is in great shape. If Nolan is off, then I expect a lot of doubling Kyle, staying home on Jon, and forcing Lance or Z to put the ball in the basket.

Newton_14
03-15-2010, 09:38 PM
In my mind, the two biggest question marks for the final phase are Jon and Miles.

Miles may not even be a question mark anymore, but it's sure tough to watch what's happening to him. The good news is he's really cut down on the cringeworthy defensive mistakes - he plays much more with his feet rather than upper body these days, and doesn't have as many lackadaisical moments where he floats around or doesn't get back. The bad news is that his former strengths seem to have disappeared... he's fumbling the ball too much to finish effectively, seems to have given up all attemps at interior moves, and is no longer a shotblocking threat.

This last development is the most confusing/troubling to me... he has the tools to be a quite intimidating weakside presence (and was on his way earlier in the season), but he doesn't even try anymore. Maybe he's just been drilled by the staff about giving up weakside rebounding position or something... I sure hope not, because if he's in the game, I want him trying to own the lane. He's not Lance Thomas; he needs to play to his strengths.

Sorry ahead of time for the long post, but I am the unofficial leader of the Miles Plumlee Fan Club and you hit on a subject I would love to discuss so bear with me on this one.


Your take on Miles is interesting and similar to mine. In the Nov/Dec games against both good and lesser competition, I noticed that Miles was so keen on blocking shots, his footwork and positioning on defense was not good. If you look at some of those games, when Miles' man had the ball in the post working a post move, Miles feet were close together and he was literally chop stepping, gathering himself to rise and block the shot into the 10th row. He got away with it against the lesser teams and even against UConn, (which I guess we now have to consider UConn a lesser team too) and he was blocking a lot of shots.

But I knew once we got into conference play against top big men he would have to change or it would be bad. Well, early in Conference play, low and behold he did change. I thought he totally changed his focus and really worked at his positioning, footwork, and he got better on defense, BUT, at a price. The shotblocker was gone. I felt he had over rotated and was so focused on getting his positioning and help assignments correct he forgot about shotblocking. I knew the coaches were likely drilling the positioning/help/etc parts into him as he really needed that, but it seemed to have come with a price.

Then came the Wake game, where he put it all together and had the career game on both ends of the floor. But as we have all seen, since that game he has struggled mightily to do any of the above consistently. I hated to see that for him and for the impact I know he can have on the team when playing well.

Good news is, I thought he played much better in the tourney and hopefully can build on that in the Big Tourney. We need that early January Miles back with the shotblocking package added in. And I still wish like heck that on that play yesterday where he caught it in the high post, turned, faced up, pumped faked and went to the hole, that he would have chosen to dunk it. It was there for the taking too. That could have been an inspiring play for him.

Let's hope he builds on his play from the ACC Tourney. I know he has it in him..

Greg_Newton
03-16-2010, 04:34 PM
Your take on Miles is interesting and similar to mine. In the Nov/Dec games against both good and lesser competition, I noticed that Miles was so keen on blocking shots, his footwork and positioning on defense was not good. If you look at some of those games, when Miles' man had the ball in the post working a post move, Miles feet were close together and he was literally chop stepping, gathering himself to rise and block the shot into the 10th row. He got away with it against the lesser teams and even against UConn, (which I guess we now have to consider UConn a lesser team too) and he was blocking a lot of shots.

But I knew once we got into conference play against top big men he would have to change or it would be bad. Well, early in Conference play, low and behold he did change. I thought he totally changed his focus and really worked at his positioning, footwork, and he got better on defense, BUT, at a price. The shotblocker was gone. I felt he had over rotated and was so focused on getting his positioning and help assignments correct he forgot about shotblocking. I knew the coaches were likely drilling the positioning/help/etc parts into him as he really needed that, but it seemed to have come with a price.

Yeah, this is about how it's looked to me too. I think he's doing much better on on-ball defense, and has been closing off driving lanes better when the offensive player is coming in completely unimpeded. However, there are pretty much two scenarios where I wish he would just be decisive and jump up and erase the shot though: a) when the offensive player is attempting a shot around the rim while the defender is still around him (thus impeding his passing vision), and b) when he's too late to cut off a driving lane but is in position to challenge an otherwise open dunk or layup.

It's point B that is especially confusing to me. Point A is hopefully just something that will come with time... when he stops having to think about his rotations so much, he may feel more confident making weakside reads. But it's strikes me as quite bizarre how he will now rotate over to the correct position to rise up and challenge an incoming dunker/layupper, and then... just... not jump. He literally just stands there, maybe puts a forearm into the guy, and watches him soar over him.

I love the guy, but come on man! You're 6'10 with a 45" vertical, for gosh sakes! :D Hopefully he remembers what a dominant athlete he is, and regains the confidence needed to assert himself into plays... if not this year, then please, next year.