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pfrduke
03-10-2010, 01:49 PM
To the extent UConn was on it, it's clearly off.

South Florida's last gasp is slipping away; if it doesn't beat Georgetown it has zero chance.

Butler helped out all bubble teams last night by TCOB in the Horizon finals.

pfrduke
03-10-2010, 04:41 PM
Marquette just finished off its 14th game this season that was decided by 5 or fewer points (they went 6-8 in such games), coming back to edge St. John's by 2. Given their combination of wins (Georgetown, Louisville by 21) and extremely close losses (FSU by 1, Nova by 2, at Nova by 2, at WV by 1, at Syracuse by 5, ND by 3 in overtime), and their 21-10, 12-7 record after today's game, they should be safely in if they weren't already.

On the statistical oddity note, I think Marquette and Kentucky are the only teams this season not to lose a game by double digits - as noted, 8 of Marquette's losses were by 5 or fewer, and they lost to Pitt by 7 and at Wisconsin by 9.

CDu
03-10-2010, 04:46 PM
Marquette just finished off its 14th game this season that was decided by 5 or fewer points (they went 6-8 in such games), coming back to edge St. John's by 2. Given their combination of wins (Georgetown, Louisville by 21) and extremely close losses (FSU by 1, Nova by 2, at Nova by 2, at WV by 1, at Syracuse by 5, ND by 3 in overtime), and their 21-10, 12-7 record after today's game, they should be safely in if they weren't already.

The losses today by SJU and USF probably kill any bubble chances those guys had.


On the statistical oddity note, I think Marquette and Kentucky are the only teams this season not to lose a game by double digits - as noted, 8 of Marquette's losses were by 5 or fewer, and they lost to Pitt by 7 and at Wisconsin by 9.

I believe that Kansas and Purdue also have not lost by double digits this year.

pfrduke
03-10-2010, 04:56 PM
I believe that Kansas and Purdue also have not lost by double digits this year.

Right you are; OK State had so thoroughly dominated that game against Kansas that I never realized it ended up as just an 8 point margin. And I had the MSU win over Purdue as an 11-point win in my head (54-43), when in reality it was 9 (53-44).

tbyers11
03-10-2010, 05:03 PM
Marquette just finished off its 14th game this season that was decided by 5 or fewer points (they went 6-8 in such games), coming back to edge St. John's by 2. Given their combination of wins (Georgetown, Louisville by 21) and extremely close losses (FSU by 1, Nova by 2, at Nova by 2, at WV by 1, at Syracuse by 5, ND by 3 in overtime), and their 21-10, 12-7 record after today's game, they should be safely in if they weren't already.

On the statistical oddity note, I think Marquette and Kentucky are the only teams this season not to lose a game by double digits - as noted, 8 of Marquette's losses were by 5 or fewer, and they lost to Pitt by 7 and at Wisconsin by 9.

Marquette's number of close games is amazing. Here's another one for you. New Mexico has played 10 games in which the final margin was 5 points or less. They are an astounding 10-0 in those games. All three of their losses were by at least 9 points.

pfrduke
03-10-2010, 05:16 PM
Missouri just laid a giant egg against Nebraska, losing by 15. They're probably still safe, but the margin is now very thin, and all they can do is sit and watch.

crimsonandblue
03-10-2010, 05:28 PM
Missouri just laid a giant egg against Nebraska, losing by 15. They're probably still safe, but the margin is now very thin, and all they can do is sit and watch.

What a shame.

SCMatt33
03-10-2010, 06:59 PM
Missouri just laid a giant egg against Nebraska, losing by 15. They're probably still safe, but the margin is now very thin, and all they can do is sit and watch.

The bubble is so bad that there is no way that Missouri is left out, but this will hurt their seeding and is probably good news for the middle of the ACC; Wake, Clemson, Florida St., and Va Tech, all of whom are projected to be seeded within a line or two of Missouri right now.

CDu
03-10-2010, 08:59 PM
It has been a good day for the non Big East bubble teams. USF and Seton Hall both lost. That's good for GT.

pfrduke
03-10-2010, 11:35 PM
It has been a good day for the non Big East bubble teams. USF and Seton Hall both lost. That's good for GT.

Louisville also dropped a game to Cincinnati. Despite having 20 wins (and 11 in conference) their resume is actually quite poor. Other than the 2 Syracuse wins (which, admittedly, are the best 2 wins of any bubble team), their next best win is a 2-point overtime victory over Notre Dame. Their non-conference slate was unimpressive; losses to Kentucky, UNLV, Western Carolina, and Charlotte, and their best non-con win is a toss-up between Western Kentucky, Morgan State, and App. State.

CDu
03-11-2010, 08:06 AM
Louisville also dropped a game to Cincinnati. Despite having 20 wins (and 11 in conference) their resume is actually quite poor. Other than the 2 Syracuse wins (which, admittedly, are the best 2 wins of any bubble team), their next best win is a 2-point overtime victory over Notre Dame. Their non-conference slate was unimpressive; losses to Kentucky, UNLV, Western Carolina, and Charlotte, and their best non-con win is a toss-up between Western Kentucky, Morgan State, and App. State.

As much as I agree that their resume is pretty soft, I think the two wins over Syracuse put Louisville safely in the field regardless of the Big East tourney. But I'm not terribly impressed by Louisville. I think they're just a team that matches up well with Syracuse (i.e., they understand how to play against zone defense).

JasonEvans
03-11-2010, 08:54 AM
As much as I agree that their resume is pretty soft, I think the two wins over Syracuse put Louisville safely in the field regardless of the Big East tourney. But I'm not terribly impressed by Louisville. I think they're just a team that matches up well with Syracuse (i.e., they understand how to play against zone defense).

Agreed-- they are 100% safe. Their RPI is 36 and their SOS is 4. They only have 1 "bad loss" to a team outside the top 100 in the RPI.

--Jason "2 wins over a top seed helps a LOT too" Evans

jipops
03-11-2010, 09:00 AM
As much as I agree that their resume is pretty soft, I think the two wins over Syracuse put Louisville safely in the field regardless of the Big East tourney. But I'm not terribly impressed by Louisville. I think they're just a team that matches up well with Syracuse (i.e., they understand how to play against zone defense).

And despite last night's loss I still think of them as a team I do NOT want Duke to face in the early rounds. They play mostly a 4 out - 1 in offensive set which has beat us up this season -see NC State and GTown.

pfrduke
03-11-2010, 06:56 PM
UAB's loss today probably leaves them on the outside looking in. They're in Lunardi's "next four out" (not sure if the current look reflects the loss or not).

PumpkinFunk
03-11-2010, 07:04 PM
UAB and Memphis both played their way out of the tourney today.

The team which could surprise and make it into the NCAA, which has been out of Bubble Watch lists for a while but has two wins which can't be matched by any ACC team is William & Mary - @Maryland (a loss which no ACC team matched) and @Wake (which was only matched by a certain team from down the road). Given how many bubble teams are playing their way off the bubble and how weak the bubble is, a William & Mary could sneak in as an 11 or 12 seed as one of the last teams in.

CDu
03-11-2010, 07:35 PM
GT trying hard to play their way off the bubble as well. They're down 7 right now and Favors has 2 early fouls. Luckily, all these other bubble teams are losing too.

CDu
03-11-2010, 07:40 PM
UNC on a 19-4 run. They look like a completely different team. They're hustling, they're moving well without the ball and passing well. GT is, on the other hand, playing like UNC has all season. It's not looking good for GT right now.

pfrduke
03-11-2010, 07:41 PM
UNC on a 19-4 run. They look like a completely different team. They're hustling, they're moving well without the ball and passing well. GT is, on the other hand, playing like UNC has all season. It's not looking good for GT right now.

Thankfully, they're only down 13 and there's still 24 minutes to play. Lots of time to turn it around.

CDu
03-11-2010, 07:43 PM
Thankfully, they're only down 13 and there's still 24 minutes to play. Lots of time to turn it around.

True. But I'm not sure GT has shown the patience or fortitude to make that type of comeback. Hopefully UNC remembers how they've played all season and falls apart.

juise
03-11-2010, 07:54 PM
True. But I'm not sure GT has shown the patience or fortitude to make that type of comeback.


And UNC has not shown the ability to take care of the ball this well (they are on pace for 8 TO's and they average 16/game). This game will truly be a test of who can best impose their... lack of will... on itself. I'm pulling for UNC's lack of will to shine through. :D

ACCBBallFan
03-11-2010, 08:19 PM
Yes, if these bubble teams keep losing, perhaps not only Herb's AZ state team but Romar's Washington Huskies may both get in as 12 seeds with Cal for 3 PAC 10 teams, which could also happen if UCLA upset Cal and wins the tourney.

SD St eeked out a one point win over Colorado St or they too would be out.

Though Lunardi does not, I still have Dayton in at his point, whether they beat Xavier or not

FL looking like it may take care of business vs Auburn.

ACCBBallFan
03-11-2010, 09:15 PM
Kent State loses in OVC but will still get an at large bid costing one bubble team as someone esle from OVC, probably Akron, who barely escaped in OT last night, gets the automatic bid

SCMatt33
03-11-2010, 09:22 PM
Kent State loses in OVC but will still get an at large bid costing one bubble team as someone esle from OVC, probably Akron, who barely escaped in OT last night, gets the automatic bid

Kent State has done NOTHING to earn an at large, their best win by far is home against UAB and they feature losses to Wisconsin Green Bay, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Buffalo, and today to Ohio. I know the bubble is bad, but it's not THAT bad.

ACCBBallFan
03-12-2010, 04:20 AM
Not saying Kent State is all that good, just nobody any better on the bubble. RPI was 42. will have to see how far they fall with the loss. BTW, my bad they are in MAC not OVC.

Besides UAB who played themselves off the bubble, Kent St has wins over tourney bound through crappy Wofford and Robert Morris and twice over now likely MAC champ Akron.

Dayton with an RPI of 51 needs to at least beat Xav to be in the discussion, but with AZ St loss to Johnnie Dawkins and Stanford, running out of candidates to pencil in unless ole MS or MS St come to life.

Just a lot of really bad bubble teams this year instead of deserving teams not making it in.

CDu
03-12-2010, 07:03 AM
Not saying Kent State is all that good, just nobody any better on the bubble. RPI was 42. will have to see how far they fall with the loss. BTW, my bad they are in MAC not OVC.

Besides UAB who played themselves off the bubble, Kent St has wins over tourney bound through crappy Wofford and Robert Morris and twice over now likely MAC champ Akron.

The UAB win is the only meaningful win Kent State has. Wins over Akron, Wofford, and Robert Morris aren't "good wins." When people talk about wins over tourney teams, they mean wins over teams good enough to get at-large bids. Beating a team that was only able to get a bid because they won a crappy conference doesn't constitute a good win.


Dayton with an RPI of 51 needs to at least beat Xav to be in the discussion, but with AZ St loss to Johnnie Dawkins and Stanford, running out of candidates to pencil in unless ole MS or MS St come to life.

Mississippi and MSU (along with Minnesota, ASU, and others) are already ahead of Kent State, and will remain so. The same is true for ASU, Memphis, and UAB. Just because those teams lost in their tournaments doesn't put them behind Kent State, who also lost early.


Just a lot of really bad bubble teams this year instead of deserving teams not making it in.

I completely agree there. This is certainly not the year to sell the idea of expanding the NCAA tournament, because none of the bubble teams really deserve to be there. It just won't be Kent State being one of those really bad bubble teams getting in.

pfrduke
03-12-2010, 10:46 AM
The only bubble Kent State is going to have an effect on is the NIT. They get the autobid to the NIT, making one fewer spot available for the Holes to slink into. There are now really only 24 at-large spots in the NIT, as 8 have been taken by regular season champions who did not win their tournament.

pfrduke
03-12-2010, 05:51 PM
Illinois helped themselves quite a bit with the win over Wisconsin today. I still don't really like their overall resume (19-13 record, 4 relatively bad losses (Utah, Bradley, Northwestern, Georgia), and losses in 5 out of 6 to finish the season), but the way the rest of the bubble has been crumbling, that win might have been enough.

Mississippi missed the chance to get a good statement win against Tennessee. My hunch is that they're on the outside looking in.

PumpkinFunk
03-12-2010, 09:58 PM
Miss St. probably just won their way in and may push Florida out. GT should be solidly in now, leaving the ACC with a near-certain 5 and 2 iffy ones (VT and Wake, though I think both will make it in despite each losing embarassingly to Miami). In other conferences, Rhode Island just knocked out St. Louis but isn't on firm ground yet, and UTEP most likely knocked out any chance of a surprise C-USA winner.

The bubble is shrinking faster than it needs to at this rate... lots of teams struggling, and you have to yet again wonder who this'll help, probably someone who hasn't played in a longer time.

SCMatt33
03-12-2010, 10:06 PM
Miss St. probably just won their way in and may push Florida out. GT should be solidly in now, leaving the ACC with a near-certain 5 and 2 iffy ones (VT and Wake, though I think both will make it in despite each losing embarassingly to Miami). In other conferences, Rhode Island just knocked out St. Louis but isn't on firm ground yet, and UTEP most likely knocked out any chance of a surprise C-USA winner.

The bubble is shrinking faster than it needs to at this rate... lots of teams struggling, and you have to yet again wonder who this'll help, probably someone who hasn't played in a longer time.

Wake has WAY too many good wins to be left out, both in and out of conference. What clinches them as a lock is that last 12 is no longer a factor. VaTech also should be in. There just aren't enough teams still playing who can pass them. This isn't a VaTech team with a bad SOS and 12 or 13 losses, it's one with a bad SOS and 8 losses.

Newton_14
03-12-2010, 11:27 PM
Wake has WAY too many good wins to be left out, both in and out of conference. What clinches them as a lock is that last 12 is no longer a factor. VaTech also should be in. There just aren't enough teams still playing who can pass them. This isn't a VaTech team with a bad SOS and 12 or 13 losses, it's one with a bad SOS and 8 losses.

As bad as the bubble teams are this year, can you imagine how bad it would be if there were 96 teams getting in this year? Would the ACC get all 12 teams in if that were the case?

Here's to hoping we never see that change come to fruition.

SCMatt33
03-13-2010, 12:23 AM
As bad as the bubble teams are this year, can you imagine how bad it would be if there were 96 teams getting in this year? Would the ACC get all 12 teams in if that were the case?

Here's to hoping we never see that change come to fruition.

The funny thing is that the expansion to 96 would essentially add in the current NIT minus one team. I have heard part of the expansion would be giving auto-bids to regular season champions (who currently get auto-bids to the NIT). So look at the NIT bubble to see who would be getting in. Currently, there are no ACC teams projected to make the NIT according to NIT-ology, but UNC and NC state were close, and Miami was on the radar. I suspect that NC state has played their way in and Miami will be close.