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airowe
03-10-2010, 08:29 AM
This team hasn't had a bad game (I know, subjective) since the Georgetown fiasco. Even in the Maryland game we played a solid 36 minutes where we could have hung with anyone. Sure, we've had some bad halves (Miami 1st half sticks out) but over a complete 40 minutes we've been putting together some really solid performances of late.

Do you think we're trending upwards now after the beatdown we dished out on Saturday or do you think we've already reached our peak and will plateau from here on out?

if you don't think we've peaked yet, where are some areas where you see room for improvement?

hq2
03-10-2010, 08:39 AM
Well obviously, there are always things we can do better, but at this stage of the season, it's hard to see us improving much. It would certainly be nice to have the big three look to dish more to the bigs when they drive, but it's tough to change ingrained habits now. At this point, we're pretty much whatever we're gonna be. We'll just have to play the way we are, and hope for the best. To paraphrase the great Donald Rumsfeld (^#%^@*!) you go into the NCAAs with the team you have, not the team you want.

CDu
03-10-2010, 08:42 AM
This team hasn't had a bad game (I know, subjective) since the Georgetown fiasco. Even in the Maryland game we played a solid 36 minutes where we could have hung with anyone. Sure, we've had some bad halves (Miami 1st half sticks out) but over a complete 40 minutes we've been putting together some really solid performances of late.

Do you think we're trending upwards now after the beatdown we dished out on Saturday or do you think we've already reached our peak and will plateau from here on out?

if you don't think we've peaked yet, where are some areas where you see room for improvement?

Well, I don't know if we're peaking or not, because we've played at a really high level for almost the entire season (with a few blips in January). November, December, and February were marked by fantastic play. But I do agree that we're playing at a very high level right now.

As far as areas for improvement. Well, going back to Jumbo's "Phase IV", I see three areas in which the team could get even stronger. Those areas would be in the play of Miles, Mason, and Dawkins.

The Plumlees have taken some steps back in February after looking like they were ready to break out as of the Wake game. Fortunately, we've gotten great contributions from Zoubek. But there will likely be some games in which Zoubek and Thomas get in foul trouble. In those games, it would be great if the Plumlees can step up. They don't need to become dominant players for us over the next month (though that would of course be terrific), but they just need to avoid some of the mistakes they've been making a lot in the last month.

Dawkins has played much better the past few games, and I'm very hopeful that this is a sign that he's going to re-emerge in March. If he can step up, that's just one more weapon from the perimeter to take a little bit of pressure off of the big three.

We can win a lot more games without either of these three stepping up. But those would be the areas in which we have the most room make an improvement.

DeBlueDevil
03-10-2010, 08:47 AM
Well, I don't know if we're peaking or not, because we've played at a really high level for almost the entire season (with a few blips in January). November, December, and February were marked by fantastic play. But I do agree that we're playing at a very high level right now.

As far as areas for improvement. Well, going back to Jumbo's "Phase IV", I see three areas in which the team could get even stronger. Those areas would be in the play of Miles, Mason, and Dawkins.

The Plumlees have taken some steps back in February after looking like they were ready to break out as of the Wake game. Fortunately, we've gotten great contributions from Zoubek. But there will likely be some games in which Zoubek and Thomas get in foul trouble. In those games, it would be great if the Plumlees can step up. They don't need to become dominant players for us over the next month (though that would of course be terrific), but they just need to avoid some of the mistakes they've been making a lot in the last month.

Dawkins has played much better the past few games, and I'm very hopeful that this is a sign that he's going to re-emerge in March. If he can step up, that's just one more weapon from the perimeter to take a little bit of pressure off of the big three.

We can win a lot more games without either of these three stepping up. But those would be the areas in which we have the most room make an improvement.
You read my mind...i totally agree...I think that the big 3 are right on time but a HUGE part of us having a great run this tournament will be the help we can provide those 3. If Zoubs and Lance keep doing their thing which I think they will and we can get some more production and quality minutes out of Miles, Mason, Andre, and Kelly. I think that will go a loooooong way towards a final four run. We'll see...

superdave
03-10-2010, 09:13 AM
We needed a 4th player to step up to add to our offense - Zoubek has done that with rebounding, screening without fouling and a few buckets per game.

Also, we needed to bring max defenseive effort every game. We have done that since NCSU and Gtown losses.

To make a further leap, the bench would have to chip in consistently on the scoring and do a little better than break even defensively.

CrazieDUMB
03-10-2010, 09:15 AM
The biggest thing for me isn't so much whether certain players will break out, but more whether we're going to have another defensive breakdown. Last year I feel like the Clemson game was a harbinger for the V'Nova, that we usually play well but sometimes our opponent hits the right formula of good passing and weakside cuts and we're just helpless. Maybe that's just revisionist history, as after the Clemson game I think most people thought it was an outlier and not necessarily indicative of how we might do in the tournament.

The weird thing is that the same thing is happening this year. We had a colossal breakdown against G'Town, which most people have kind of forgotten about since we've been playing so well in the 10 games since. We have the emergence of a player down the stretch (Zou, although last year it was E-Will) that's kind of distracting us from the fact that we don't know what's going to happen when we play a team with good passing guards who spread our defense.

Not trying to be gloom and doom, but this season feels strangely familiar to what happened last year. I don't think we've answered the question of what to do when a team goes 4-out 1-in and isn't intimidated by us playing the passing lanes. Hopefully K has fixed that in practice (he's too smart not to think about it).

duke4life32182
03-10-2010, 09:32 AM
Bench play could always get better.

dukeimac
03-10-2010, 09:57 AM
I think the true test of this team will come in the ACC championship game.

If they don't make the championship game, there should and will be some concern. I think, no believe they will be in that game.

If, no when, they get there they need to win convincingly. I saw the loss at Maryland coming. We played them in their most hostile environment, in one of our best rivalries and on senior night after a butt kicking at Duke. If Vasquez isn't a senior I think things are different. But Duke should be able to handle them on a neutral court. I take Duke by about at least 10.

If this game is a tight game there should and will be some concern. That is in their ability to make the final four.

I will just sit back and watch.

jv001
03-10-2010, 10:00 AM
If Miles, Mason and Dre play anywhere near their talent level, we will be a hard out in any tournament. We have seen glimpses of this but not on a consistent level. I watched the unc game again yesterday and some things I came away with:
Miles has great leaping ability but needs to catch the ball cleanly and make the play. If he can do that he will make some baskets.
Mason too many times gets beaten down court because he tries to slap the ball away from his man after he's been beaten off the dribble. Just get back on defense.
Andre has shown some life on his shot and according to Nolan makes baskets regularly in practice that are not outside shots. Let's hope he brings that to the games.
Haven't said much about Kelly as he's not getting much playing time, but he could spell any of our big guys for a minute here or there.
One final comment. What happens if Jon gets hot in the upcoming games, that would be a huge lift to the team.
I like what I see with this team and think the best is yet to come. Go Duke!

Indoor66
03-10-2010, 10:07 AM
If Miles, Mason and Dre play anywhere near their talent level, we will be a hard out in any tournament. We have seen glimpses of this but not on a consistent level. I watched the unc game again yesterday and some things I came away with:
Miles has great leaping ability but needs to catch the ball cleanly and make the play. If he can do that he will make some baskets.
Mason too many times gets beaten down court because he tries to slap the ball away from his man after he's been beaten off the dribble. Just get back on defense.
Andre has shown some life on his shot and according to Nolan makes baskets regularly in practice that are not outside shots. Let's hope he brings that to the games.
Haven't said much about Kelly as he's not getting much playing time, but he could spell any of our big guys for a minute here or there.
One final comment. What happens if Jon gets hot in the upcoming games, that would be a huge lift to the team.
I like what I see with this team and think the best is yet to come. Go Duke!

We are a hard out for any team now. If M, M & D have a breakout period during the coming tourneys we will win it all. We can win it all right now.

airowe
03-10-2010, 10:09 AM
If we can bring up our shooting percentages, especially our outside shooting, we are going to be a very tough out for anyone. For all the talk on how much we rely on the outside shot we haven't been shooting it well from there at a very high clip.

If Jon, Nolan, Kyle, and Andre can make around 1 more three a game over the next 9 games, that may just be too much to overcome for even our toughest opponents. When we're hitting early it opens up our offense so much

Luckily, we have Miles who hasn't missed a 3 yet this year. ;)

davekay1971
03-10-2010, 10:11 AM
Well, I don't know if we're peaking or not, because we've played at a really high level for almost the entire season (with a few blips in January). November, December, and February were marked by fantastic play. But I do agree that we're playing at a very high level right now.

As far as areas for improvement. Well, going back to Jumbo's "Phase IV", I see three areas in which the team could get even stronger. Those areas would be in the play of Miles, Mason, and Dawkins.

The Plumlees have taken some steps back in February after looking like they were ready to break out as of the Wake game. Fortunately, we've gotten great contributions from Zoubek. But there will likely be some games in which Zoubek and Thomas get in foul trouble. In those games, it would be great if the Plumlees can step up. They don't need to become dominant players for us over the next month (though that would of course be terrific), but they just need to avoid some of the mistakes they've been making a lot in the last month.

Dawkins has played much better the past few games, and I'm very hopeful that this is a sign that he's going to re-emerge in March. If he can step up, that's just one more weapon from the perimeter to take a little bit of pressure off of the big three.

We can win a lot more games without either of these three stepping up. But those would be the areas in which we have the most room make an improvement.

What he said...

cbnaylor
03-10-2010, 10:18 AM
To answer your question Airowe, by no means has Duke already peaked. Let me throw some stats your way. Duke has done an awful job with shooting the ball. Duke has only shot 50% or better in FIVE GAMES. All of those FIVE GAMES were during the beginning of the season. UNCG 59%, UNCC 53%, G. Webb 65%, Penn 60%, and Clemson 50%. That means, Duke hasn't even shot 50% or better during any of the ACC games since the first meeting against Clemson. So if Duke can shoot the ball better instead of between 39-44 percent, the sky is the limit to for this team. What's scary is the fact of how Duke has been winning by shooting this poorly. Give credit to Duke Defense.

CDu
03-10-2010, 10:18 AM
If we can bring up our shooting percentages, especially our outside shooting, we are going to be a very tough out for anyone. For all the talk on how much we rely on the outside shot we haven't been shooting it well from there at a very high clip.

If Jon, Nolan, Kyle, and Andre can make around 1 more three a game over the next 9 games, that may just be too much to overcome for even our toughest opponents. When we're hitting early it opens up our offense so much

Luckily, we have Miles who hasn't missed a 3 yet this year. ;)

Well, I'm not sure I completely agree here. In our last eight games we've shot the following from 3pt range:

UNC: 8-21 (38%)
Maryland: 10-27 (37%)
UVa: 7-18 (39%)
Tulsa: 4-12 (33%)
VT: 10-30 (33%)
Miami: 13-29 (45%)
Maryland: 5-15 (33%)
UNC: 9-18 (50%)

That's a total of 66-170, or 38.8%. That's right at our season average, which is a pretty good average. I don't know that we can realistically expect to shoot better than that from 3 over more than a game or so.

I'd say it's actually been our shooting INSIDE the arc (layups, mid-range shots, runners) that have been a bigger problem for us.

superdave
03-10-2010, 10:20 AM
It all depends on who we draw. We could matchup against Kansas pretty well but maybe not some teams with quicker guards - Kentucky, Nova, Wisco etc.

We're due to over-achieve in the post-season though, right?

Durhamrocks68
03-10-2010, 10:25 AM
Totally agree with CDu on the two-point shooting. It seems like we're missing some runners and jumpers that would really open up things if they started falling at a higher clip. Plus, any paint points we can get form the post will significantly improve our chances of advancing. Outside of Dre (and he's starting to come on), I'm quite pleased with out 3-ball attack.

airowe
03-10-2010, 10:28 AM
Well, I'm not sure I completely agree here. In our last eight games we've shot the following from 3pt range:

UNC: 8-21 (38%)
Maryland: 10-27 (37%)
UVa: 7-18 (39%)
Tulsa: 4-12 (33%)
VT: 10-30 (33%)
Miami: 13-29 (45%)
Maryland: 5-15 (33%)
UNC: 9-18 (50%)

That's a total of 66-170, or 38.8%. That's right at our season average, which is a pretty good average. I don't know that we can realistically expect to shoot better than that from 3 over more than a game or so.

I'd say it's actually been our shooting INSIDE the arc (layups, mid-range shots, runners) that have been a bigger problem for us.

I was talking out of my backside, obviously. Verbal diaROYa if you will. As you and cbnaylor pointed out, its our 2 point shooting that has a ton of room for improvement.

Mal
03-10-2010, 10:46 AM
I think at this point in the season, shooting percentages for the year are about what you should expect from here on out. Expecting to improve on those averages, built over 30 games, is basically "planning" on someone getting hot and no one going cold. That's not terribly likely. We're just not an exceptional shooting team this year. That's not to say that there's not a good chance Andre continues climbing back to where we saw him early in the year, before his world collapsed around him. That's a forseeable circumstance that would improve the team's overall shooting without needing Scheyer, Singler or Smith to find a marked hot streak while the other two stay at the same level. But I'm not going to count on it, only to be disappointed if it doesn't happen. I'd rather it be a pleasant surprise. :)

Anyway, I agree with the consensus here that the bench seems to be the key area where the team's overall play could be improved going in to the postseason. What sorts of contributions we get out of the 6-8 guys in the rotation will likely be determinative of whether we cruise in early round games or get into dogfights, and, should we advance, whether we have the weapons to overcome an equally well-regarded team later on. Having the Plumlees active inside and wearing down opposing bigs, or having Dawkins come on to toss in a couple bombs could really help limit the times where a perceived "bad matchup" issue with an opposing team actually turns into a legitimate problem on the court.

noyac
03-10-2010, 11:13 AM
Not trying to be gloom and doom, but this season feels strangely familiar to what happened last year. I don't think we've answered the question of what to do when a team goes 4-out 1-in and isn't intimidated by us playing the passing lanes. Hopefully K has fixed that in practice (he's too smart not to think about it).

I have to say your are right in some ways but last year we did not have the same inside presence that can help defensively. I think if our bigs keep playing such good help Defense then that can nullify some of the quick guards and there inside passing.

When it comes to the G'town game what I saw alot was people being late to help defensively which made it easy to drive and dish to a cutter for an easy layup. Since the G'town game I have seen so much focus on help defense that I have to think that Coach K went over that game film time and time again and showed the players what went wrong and how to adjust.

So I would have to say there are three obvious keys to our success.

1.) Big three keep playing how they are playing (avg. around 53 pts a game)
2.) Keep playing great help defense (oppents avg 59.9 pts a game over last ten games since G'town)
3.) Players other than Big three need to score at total of more than 15 points a game.

Kedsy
03-10-2010, 12:43 PM
It all depends on who we draw. We could matchup against Kansas pretty well but maybe not some teams with quicker guards - Kentucky, Nova, Wisco etc.

It's not quick guards who give us fits, and I don't put Kentucky in the same category as Villanova, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and NC State. The latter teams play the spread (4-out, 1-in) offense that negates our inside help defense and makes us vulnerable to penetrating guards. Kentucky really doesn't.

It's possible Wall is just too quick for any of our players to handle, but the key against Kentucky will be the ability of one of our bigs to step up and stop his drive with confidence that the second big will rotate over and prevent the easy dish and dunk. I actually like our chances better against Kentucky than against a lesser team who plays the dreaded 4-out, 1-in.

And, by the way, Sherron Collins is quicker than anybody on Villanova, Wisconsin, or Georgetown. I don't know how you think the quick guards on those latter teams could cause us problems but not Collins.

CDu
03-10-2010, 12:48 PM
It's not quick guards who give us fits, and I don't put Kentucky in the same category as Villanova, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and NC State. The latter teams play the spread (4-out, 1-in) offense that negates our inside help defense and makes us vulnerable to penetrating guards. Kentucky really doesn't.

It's possible Wall is just too quick for any of our players to handle, but the key against Kentucky will be the ability of one of our bigs to step up and stop his drive with confidence that the second big will rotate over and prevent the easy dish and dunk. I actually like our chances better against Kentucky than against a lesser team who plays the dreaded 4-out, 1-in.

And, by the way, Sherron Collins is quicker than anybody on Villanova, Wisconsin, or Georgetown. I don't know how you think the quick guards on those latter teams could cause us problems but not Collins.

Exactly. I'd also note that Kansas frequently plays the spread attack. So, in addition to the fact that Collins is very quick, they also present a potential style problem for us.

Kedsy
03-10-2010, 12:56 PM
I agree with most of what's been said on this thread. In order to be an outstanding team, some things just need to be maintained: defensive intensity, the level of Z's play, the stellar play by the three S's. It would be nice if our shooting percentage went up, but as long as it doesn't go down we should be OK. The question of whether or not we've learned to defend 4-out, 1-in offenses may determine how far we go in the tournament, but it is irrelevant to whether we've peaked or not.

Lance's ability to defend multiple positions allows us to show different looks on defense, which hopefully will help disrupt opposing offenses. The intriguing thing about our bench play is if Miles, Mason, and Andre can come in and defend adequately, they can do the same thing on offense. Getting meaningful minutes from them gives us so many different looks as a team. For example, a small lineup with Jon, Nolan, Andre, Kyle, and Miles has to be defended a lot differently than, e.g., Jon, Nolan, Kyle, Mason, and Z. If the bench players can be relied upon it makes it very difficult for an opponent to get into any rhythm on defense. And this is why we haven't peaked yet.

But as someone else said, I think Duke keeps playing for as long as our defense plays at a high level. The rest of it is all gravy.

ncexnyc
03-10-2010, 12:57 PM
Increased contributions from Mason, Miles, and Dre would go a long way in helping our chances for a deep in the tournament.

Of those 3, I'd say the most important player is Dre. I believe it's crucial we get about 7 or 8 pts a game from him in about 15 minutes of playing time. Basically, the points would mean we're getting scoring while the player Dre is subbing for is resting and the minutes mean that the Big 3 have gotten a decent blow during the game so they can be sharp at crunch time.

CDu
03-10-2010, 01:02 PM
Increased contributions from Mason, Miles, and Dre would go a long way in helping our chances for a deep in the tournament.

Of those 3, I'd say the most important player is Dre. I believe it's crucial we get about 7 or 8 pts a game from him in about 15 minutes of playing time. Basically, the points would mean we're getting scoring while the player Dre is subbing for is resting and the minutes mean that the Big 3 have gotten a decent blow during the game so they can be sharp at crunch time.

I think all three are very important. In fact, I might even say that the Plumlees are more important because of the propensity for Thomas and Zoubek to pick up fouls. I suspect that it's more likely we'll need the Plumlees to give us extended quality minutes than it will be for Dawkins to do so.

But I agree that having Dawkins able/ready to give us 15 minutes and 7-8 points would be a very welcome addition.

flyingdutchdevil
03-10-2010, 01:29 PM
I believe it's crucial we get about 7 or 8 pts a game from him in about 15 minutes of playing time.

Ummm...that's 19-21 points every 40 minutes. That's similar to our Big 3. I'd more than welcome that!!!

oldnavy
03-10-2010, 01:50 PM
It's not quick guards who give us fits, and I don't put Kentucky in the same category as Villanova, Wisconsin, Georgetown, and NC State. The latter teams play the spread (4-out, 1-in) offense that negates our inside help defense and makes us vulnerable to penetrating guards. Kentucky really doesn't.

It's possible Wall is just too quick for any of our players to handle, but the key against Kentucky will be the ability of one of our bigs to step up and stop his drive with confidence that the second big will rotate over and prevent the easy dish and dunk. I actually like our chances better against Kentucky than against a lesser team who plays the dreaded 4-out, 1-in.

And, by the way, Sherron Collins is quicker than anybody on Villanova, Wisconsin, or Georgetown. I don't know how you think the quick guards on those latter teams could cause us problems but not Collins.

I've acutally been impressed overall with how we have handled the 4-1 style this year. It still is difficult and gives us fits, but we seem to for whatever reason, playing off the guards a little, better help, etc... to have become much better at defending it.

CDu
03-10-2010, 01:53 PM
I've acutally been impressed overall with how we have handled the 4-1 style this year. It still is difficult and gives us fits, but we seem to for whatever reason, playing off the guards a little, better help, etc... to have become much better at defending it.

I disagree a bit. I think we've continued to struggle with it. I think we've just managed to not have to face it very much this year, as many/most of the teams in the ACC play two post guys.

Kedsy
03-10-2010, 01:54 PM
I've acutally been impressed overall with how we have handled the 4-1 style this year. It still is difficult and gives us fits, but we seem to for whatever reason, playing off the guards a little, better help, etc... to have become much better at defending it.

It's possible I've been too focused on the losses to Wisconsin, NC State, and Georgetown, where we played very poorly against that offensive style. But I'm having trouble thinking of a game this year where the opponent played primarily 4-out, 1-in and I thought we really had it covered. Which games are you remembering?

Saratoga2
03-10-2010, 03:09 PM
Thoughts going into the tournament
Possessions:
Going into the tournament, I was thinking about the basic concepts of basketball, and how this year’s Duke team measures up in important areas.
Both teams get the same number of possessions with the possible exception of taking the last shot at the end of the half. From these possessions each team commits turnovers and the net turnover margin provides more possessions for the one holding the margin.
There are many types of turnovers such as carrying the ball, forms of traveling, errant passes out of bounds or leading to steals, 5 second calls under defensive pressure, excess time to get the ball in bounds, moving screens, over and back, excess time in the lane, player losing control of the ball off their foot for instance and probably more not listed. While Duke isn’t particularly good this year at pressing to cause TO’s, it is very good in the set man for man defense. Duke is also very good at avoiding careless TO’s. We should hold up in the tournament in the TO measurement except against a team like Wisconsin, who has a very low incidence of TO’s.
Another area that impacts margin of possessions is the number of offensive fouls. These are essentially TO’s. Charging, hooking, pushing off and moving screens. This is an area where Duke had issues earlier in the year with both Singler and Smith getting charging calls while Zoubek and the Plumlee’s seemed to get the moving screens and a smaller incidence of hooking. Adjustments make during the year have cut down on Dukes offensive fouls and I think we should be as good as anyone we play in that regard. Offensive fouling should result in either a net zero or advantage for Duke.
The other area which impacts possessions is offensive rebounding. An edge here obviously provides additional possessions. With Zoubek coming on strongly and both Thomas and Singler also doing well in this area, we should maintain an advantage over most opponents.
Offensive efficiency:
What a team does with the possessions it has also determines the likelihood of winning. There are really 3 ways to score.
3 point shots taken times the shooting percentage times the number of shots taken
2 point shots times the shooting percentage times the number of shots taken
FT taken times the FT shooting percentage ( Percentage on the first of a 1 and 1 is another important measure that is harder to get from box scores)
Dukes 3 point shooting has only been okay of late, and we don’t get a lot of fast breaks and our Bigs can’t really be relied on to shoot a high percentage, so we are only average in my opinion, while our free throw shooting is very good, but we need to have more fouls shots taken. While our offensive efficiency as measured is better than most opponents, it could be an area of weakness against the better tournament teams.
Defensive Efficiency:
Defensively we need to cut down the opponents ability to shoot a high percentage by guarding the 3 point shooters well, limiting fast breaks and making it hard to score over our Bigs inside. Zoubek has done that well. We do tend to give up fast breaks when we shoot the 3 from the corner and miss.
Defensive fouls:
We need to avoid silly fouls for two reasons. Keep our better players in the game and also avoid giving an improved shooting percentage per possession.
It is never sensible to foul a 3 point shooter who might do 40% from the 3 point line and 75% from the charity stripe. It is also probably not good to foul a contested 2 point jump shooter, since the % from the line will probably be better than the shot taken. It might be sensible to foul on a dunk attempt, provided the dunk can be stopped. Fouling away from the basket where the opponent is in no position to threaten is a big mistake. In the past, Thomas and Zoubek, along with our new Bigs tended to have fouls of that type called. Thomas is still somewhat prone to those as is Mason. Zoubek is much better than he was at the beginning of the season.
Summary:
We need to be consistent and win the TO battle, while committing less offensive fouls than we draw and win the offensive rebounding battle. We also need to be efficient with our possessions while playing a tight defense. I prefer avoiding the press as we too often get burned. When we get back down court and set our defense, we are very tough to score on. We also need to be smart with our defensive fouls. Stay cool.
An experienced team, like Duke, with good guard play, superior offensive rebounding and a coordinated and proven defense will have a good chance of moving ahead in the tournament.

Classof06
03-10-2010, 04:30 PM
To answer your question Airowe, by no means has Duke already peaked. Let me throw some stats your way. Duke has done an awful job with shooting the ball. Duke has only shot 50% or better in FIVE GAMES. All of those FIVE GAMES were during the beginning of the season. UNCG 59%, UNCC 53%, G. Webb 65%, Penn 60%, and Clemson 50%. That means, Duke hasn't even shot 50% or better during any of the ACC games since the first meeting against Clemson. So if Duke can shoot the ball better instead of between 39-44 percent, the sky is the limit to for this team. What's scary is the fact of how Duke has been winning by shooting this poorly. Give credit to Duke Defense.

Thank you, I've been saying this all year. Saturday against UNC was one of four games (Gonzaga, vs. MD, @UVA, vs. UNC), where Duke has had everything clicking. Considering we're 26-5 and Co-ACC Champs, that really says a lot. Duke hasn't shot the ball well very many times at all this season, telling you just how well we've defended over the long haul.

I don't know if Duke is peaking, but they've come a long way. Responding to and erasing Maryland's 14-point 1st half lead in that atmosphere in College Park last week said more about this team's progress than anything. They were not capable of handling that in December and January.

If we can get more offensive contribution from Lance and the Plumlees, this team can most definitely get to a Final Four.

mike88
03-10-2010, 06:24 PM
Summary:
We need to be consistent and win the TO battle, while committing less offensive fouls than we draw and win the offensive rebounding battle. We also need to be efficient with our possessions while playing a tight defense. I prefer avoiding the press as we too often get burned. When we get back down court and set our defense, we are very tough to score on. We also need to be smart with our defensive fouls. Stay cool.
An experienced team, like Duke, with good guard play, superior offensive rebounding and a coordinated and proven defense will have a good chance of moving ahead in the tournament.

I agree with this assessment, and I hope we can do all of the above. I think that the one area that may not be sustainable is our offensive rebounding advantage. We saw in the UVA game that if a team focuses on blocking out and has good size, we won't be able to dominate the boards. That said, we need to control the defensive boards and not lose the overall rebounding battle. I am optimistic that the 3S's will continue to improve in their ability to play off each other and use picks to get good looks on the offensive end. Kyle, in particular, looks very comfortable right now with a variety of looks (3 point shot, pull-up, sweeping drives). Like others, my main concern is whether we will be able to maintain our defensive efficiency, particularly our ability to keep the other team from getting easy 2-point baskets- I think we are in good shape for stopping 3-point shooting.

-bdbd
03-10-2010, 08:05 PM
To answer your question Airowe, by no means has Duke already peaked. Let me throw some stats your way. Duke has done an awful job with shooting the ball. Duke has only shot 50% or better in FIVE GAMES. All of those FIVE GAMES were during the beginning of the season. UNCG 59%, UNCC 53%, G. Webb 65%, Penn 60%, and Clemson 50%. That means, Duke hasn't even shot 50% or better during any of the ACC games since the first meeting against Clemson. So if Duke can shoot the ball better instead of between 39-44 percent, the sky is the limit to for this team. What's scary is the fact of how Duke has been winning by shooting this poorly. Give credit to Duke Defense.
CBNAYLOR - I just don't see any trend towards that percentage improving. I hope it will, but don't see evidence to expect it yet. In the meantime we live by our O-rebounding on that end of the floor. And certainly we've played fairly consistent, strong D -- which is really important b/c, unlike other Duke NCAAT teams in recent years, if the shots arenn't falling you can still count on that D (and the rebounding on both ends). I see this team as much less "variable" than the perimeter teams of JJ, et al. Since we'll be a 1-2 seed, that gives me decent confidence that we should make it to the Elite-8 at least.


Well, I'm not sure I completely agree here. In our last eight games we've shot the following from 3pt range:

UNC: 8-21 (38%)
Maryland: 10-27 (37%)
UVa: 7-18 (39%)
Tulsa: 4-12 (33%)
VT: 10-30 (33%)
Miami: 13-29 (45%)
Maryland: 5-15 (33%)
UNC: 9-18 (50%)

That's a total of 66-170, or 38.8%. That's right at our season average, which is a pretty good average. I don't know that we can realistically expect to shoot better than that from 3 over more than a game or so.

I'd say it's actually been our shooting INSIDE the arc (layups, mid-range shots, runners) that have been a bigger problem for us.
That is a little deceptive though. If you throw out the 50% outlier vs UNC - playing at home against a spoiled bunch that couldn't be bothered to guard anybody - you've had one game in the last month where we reached 40%, and that was largely all in just the second half of that one I think. Our overall Offense hasn't been overwhelming, and the percentages haven't exactly been climbing over the last few weeks. But it does leave room for improvement...and now would be the time to start seeing that happen!!
I believe this is another area where we would be extremely well served by seeing 1-2 bench members getting hot (or even Lance or Zoubs).


Thank you, I've been saying this all year. Saturday against UNC was one of four games (Gonzaga, vs. MD, @UVA, vs. UNC), where Duke has had everything clicking. Considering we're 26-5 and Co-ACC Champs, that really says a lot. Duke hasn't shot the ball well very many times at all this season, telling you just how well we've defended over the long haul. ...I don't know if Duke is peaking, but they've come a long way. Responding to and erasing Maryland's 14-point 1st half lead in that atmosphere in College Park last week said more about this team's progress than anything. They were not capable of handling that in December and January. ...If we can get more offensive contribution from Lance and the Plumlees, this team can most definitely get to a Final Four.

We've "hit on all cyllinders" in more than just those four games, though those might be the most prominent ones. Think some of the Nov-Dec games. Think UCONN. But, importantly, I believe that we are seeing a team that is, more or less, generally improving as the season progresses. We are seeing strong upperclass leadership, which is keeping everyone focused and continuing to get better. I think a big letdown seems unlikely. Fingers crossed that we get a hot streak now out of Lance, Dre, Mason, or others. It is a really nice change, for once, to enter March feeling pretty darned confident that this team will make a major dent in the NCAAT!!!



P.S. That doesn't mean we necessarily win it all, but we be "in it" at least in every game that we play, and we have the confidence and experience to sway those close ones our way. There's an awful lot of teams out there that'd LOVE to be where we sit right now...

:rolleyes::cool::D

CDu
03-10-2010, 08:08 PM
That is a little deceptive though. If you throw out the 50% outlier vs UNC - playing at home against a spoiled bunch that couldn't be bothered to guard anybody - you've had one game in the last month where we reached 40%, and that was largely all in just the second half of that one I think. Our overall Offense hasn't been overwhelming, and the percentages haven't exactly been climbing over the last few weeks. But it does leave room for improvement...and now would be the time to start seeing that happen!!
I believe this is another area where we would be extremely well served by seeing 1-2 bench members getting hot (or even Lance or Zoubs).

It's not deceptive. 40% is a phenomenal 3pt %. That we have had only one game above that mark isn't a sign of bad shooting. Even if you take away the UNC game, we've shot 37.5% from 3 in the previous 7 games. That's really really good.

Can we have games in which we top 40%? Sure. But to say that we've struggled from 3pt range over the last month or so is not really correct. We've been pretty solid - at or near our season averages.

roywhite
03-10-2010, 08:10 PM
It's not deceptive. 40% is a phenomenal 3pt %. That we have had only one game above that mark isn't a sign of bad shooting. Even if you take away the UNC game, we've shot 37.5% from 3 in the previous 7 games. That's really really good.

That is good, I agree. The key stat on 3-pt shooting here is that for the season Duke is shooting roughly 39% from 3-pt, and Duke's opponents are shooting roughly 27% from 3-pt. Huge advantage.

CDu
03-10-2010, 08:15 PM
We've "hit on all cyllinders" in more than just those four games, though those might be the most prominent ones. Think some of the Nov-Dec games. Think UCONN.

Slight nitpick, but we definitely weren't hitting on all cylinders in the UConn game. In that game, we shot 30% from the field. That game actually represents our low-water mark for the season offensively (in terms of offensive efficiency).

MChambers
03-10-2010, 08:20 PM
Slight nitpick, but we definitely weren't hitting on all cylinders in the UConn game. In that game, we shot 30% from the field. That game actually represents our low-water mark for the season offensively (in terms of offensive efficiency).

I don't think we hit on all cylinders in the Gonzaga game. Our offense really struggled, especially in the first half. Defense was great, however.

CDu
03-10-2010, 08:25 PM
I don't think we hit on all cylinders in the Gonzaga game. Our offense really struggled, especially in the first half. Defense was great, however.

Agreed. Our offensive efficiency was pretty poor against Gonzaga. The Gonzaga game was our best defensive game of the season (by a WIDE margin).

In terms of offensive efficiency (excluding non-BCS teams), we've had our best games against BC, Maryland, ISU, Georgia Tech, and UNC.

Kedsy
03-10-2010, 09:52 PM
We saw in the UVA game that if a team focuses on blocking out and has good size, we won't be able to dominate the boards.

Perhaps, but if an opponent focuses on defensive rebounding it means they have to guard our big three with single coverage. Virginia may have neutralized us on the boards, but to do so they allowed our team to shoot 48% (our highest raw shooting percentage in our last 18 games). Jon and Kyle combined to shoot 58.3%. (There was also a little chicken and egg thing going on in that game, since our fewer missed shots necessarily led to fewer offensive rebounding opportunities.) I suspect in the NCAAT, most teams will try to ignore our big men in order to stop our big three, so our outstanding offensive rebounding should continue.

Indoor66
03-10-2010, 10:00 PM
Perhaps, but if an opponent focuses on defensive rebounding it means they have to guard our big three with single coverage. Virginia may have neutralized us on the boards, but to do so they allowed our team to shoot 48% (our highest raw shooting percentage in our last 18 games). Jon and Kyle combined to shoot 58.3%. (There was also a little chicken and egg thing going on in that game, since our fewer missed shots necessarily led to fewer offensive rebounding opportunities.) I suspect in the NCAAT, most teams will try to ignore our big men in order to stop our big three, so our outstanding offensive rebounding should continue.

Good analysis. Pick your poison.

mike88
03-10-2010, 10:13 PM
Perhaps, but if an opponent focuses on defensive rebounding it means they have to guard our big three with single coverage. Virginia may have neutralized us on the boards, but to do so they allowed our team to shoot 48% (our highest raw shooting percentage in our last 18 games). Jon and Kyle combined to shoot 58.3%. (There was also a little chicken and egg thing going on in that game, since our fewer missed shots necessarily led to fewer offensive rebounding opportunities.) I suspect in the NCAAT, most teams will try to ignore our big men in order to stop our big three, so our outstanding offensive rebounding should continue.

I completely agree. In fact, I would gladly sacrifice offensive rebounds for 3-point baskets! :D But of all the season trends, I expect that the offensive rebounding is not as likely to continue. I hope I am wrong and Zoubek and Lance walk away with lots of put-backs and a ring.

roywhite
03-10-2010, 10:24 PM
I completely agree. In fact, I would gladly sacrifice offensive rebounds for 3-point baskets! :D But of all the season trends, I expect that the offensive rebounding is not as likely to continue. I hope I am wrong and Zoubek and Lance walk away with lots of put-backs and a ring.

Not unusual to be nervous about some things going in to the Tournament, but senior experience counts for a lot. Jon, Lance, and Zoubs will all rise to the occasion IMO, and that certainly includes Lance and Zoubs on the boards.

Foul trouble in key games? Who knows, but we have the depth inside to offset that, certainly more so than in recent years.

ElSid
03-10-2010, 10:39 PM
i thought it was a good sign to see coach k go to an effective zone against maryland. that disrupted penetration and movement. we still managed to defend against threes well. i could see that coming in handy if we end up trying to deal with kentucky's quickness, for example. we can neutralize some of that athleticism by zoning and daring them to shoot more threes, which they don't do so well. so i'd say our defensive flexibility and coach k's willingness and ability to react lately represents an opportunity to improve.
otherwise, i tend to agree with everything that's been said. scheyer getting out of the mini-slump would help. continued inspired play by the other two of the big three.
as for the big guys...the plumlees need to watch game film of zoubek. the single best thing he's done is not foul stupidly. it's easy. just don't lower your arm over a certain point, get out of the way of the pick and roll guard in time, etc. The second biggest thing zoubek has done to improve is not bring the ball down to his knees on every rebound / put back attempt. i see both plumlee brothers having problems with this and hope they'll figure it out before second semester senior year like zoubek.