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rotogod00
03-06-2010, 10:39 PM
We're back atop the West bracket

ACC locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State
Also in: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

And as far as Tech's chances of getting in, there are 7 teams after them in his S-Curve

hotbutteredseoul
03-07-2010, 06:42 AM
People will play themselves ahead of Ga. Tech unless they win at least one in the tourney.

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 07:42 AM
Well, not exactly sure what could've changed overnight but, as of 8 AM Sunday, Lunardi actually still has Kansas St. (yes, they of the 2 losses this week) on the top line.

dukeimac
03-07-2010, 08:04 AM
I believe the final number one seed comes down Ohio State and Duke.

With K State loss, at home, they definitely fall below Duke.

I think that if Ohio State wins their tournament they should get the final number 1 seed, only because of the late set back in Maryland. Duke should be ranked 5th and will have to play into the ACC championship game and Ohio State needs to get beat.

By the way, I think the loss to Maryland could be a blessing in disguise. Players will be more focuses, as we saw last night.

Rich
03-07-2010, 08:10 AM
One seed or two seed doesn't matter, IMHO. It's all about matchups (and a little luck). I think Vitale mentioned that K said this as well. K said he doesn't care whether we're a 1 or 2 seed and won't know if he's happy with the tourney seedings until he sees who we play.

77devil
03-07-2010, 08:54 AM
Well, not exactly sure what could've changed overnight but, as of 8 AM Sunday, Lunardi actually still has Kansas St. (yes, they of the 2 losses this week) on the top line.

Hasn't been updatd since Friday.


One seed or two seed doesn't matter, IMHO. It's all about matchups (and a little luck). I think Vitale mentioned that K said this as well. K said he doesn't care whether we're a 1 or 2 seed and won't know if he's happy with the tourney seedings until he sees who we play.

Both are important and related. More likely to avoid a bad match up earlier in the tournament as a one seed. This has been discusses extensively in the Bid for a One Seed thread.

moonpie23
03-07-2010, 09:33 AM
i wonder what derrick favors is thinking....

77devil
03-07-2010, 09:38 AM
i wonder what derrick favors is thinking....

What kind of car will I buy with my signing bonus?;)

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 09:53 AM
Hasn't been updatd since Friday.



Both are important and related. More likely to avoid a bad match up earlier in the tournament as a one seed. This has been discusses extensively in the Bid for a One Seed thread.

his Bracket Math was updated this morning, thanks

Deslok
03-07-2010, 10:12 AM
Presuming we win our first game in the ACC tourney, I think there is only one big threat to our being a one seed. And that's Purdue. They have all the requisite numbers for a #1 seed. They just lost their best player for the season though. But if they could still manage to win the Big 10/11 tourney, I can't see denying them a 1 seed. But that's a tall task(would be tough even with a healthy Hummel). The only other team I see with even a chance of taking it from us, would be West Virginia if they could romp through the Big East tourney, following their big road win at Nova. Kansas St, New Mexico, BYU, Villanova, and yes Ohio St simply don't have the resume with big wins or gaudy enough record to take a 1 seed. So it really seems to be Duke's to lose right now.

pfrduke
03-07-2010, 10:50 AM
his Bracket Math was updated this morning, thanks

Relevant link:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/5477/bracketology-as-of-11-p-m-saturday

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 12:17 PM
Relevant link:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/5477/bracketology-as-of-11-p-m-saturday

this was updated this morning, behind the insider wall. what i've written this morning pertains to this update

A-Tex Devil
03-07-2010, 12:26 PM
If WVU wins out and we don't win the ACC tourney, they will jump us. If we make the ACC tourney finals we are guaranteed that one seed unless WVU or maybe OSU wins their tourney.

Exiled_Devil
03-07-2010, 12:27 PM
Well, not exactly sure what could've changed overnight but, as of 8 AM Sunday, Lunardi actually still has Kansas St. (yes, they of the 2 losses this week) on the top line.

As a point of information, he put Duke up on the top line last night at 11.

Which makes the change back to KState even stranger.

CDu
03-07-2010, 12:30 PM
As a point of information, he put Duke up on the top line last night at 11.

Which makes the change back to KState even stranger.

I think this was addressed as simply a case of not having updated the website yet. He didn't switch back to KSU - he just hadn't updated that yet.

Truth
03-07-2010, 12:35 PM
I think this was addressed as simply a case of not having updated the website yet. He didn't switch back to KSU - he just hadn't updated that yet.

I don't think it's an update issue. Lunardi actually says: "Although Kansas State and Syracuse lost Saturday and Duke won big over North Carolina, I still have these four schools on the No. 1 line as of now."

And Duke isn't there... strange.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=497320 (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=4973200)

77devil
03-07-2010, 08:31 PM
Duke back as the 1 seed in the West in the Sunday evening update and this morning's update that had KS on top has been changed.

burnspbesq
03-07-2010, 10:34 PM
Never thought I'd see the Mountain West in position to get four teams in, while the Pac-10 may only get one.

ChicagoCrazy84
03-07-2010, 11:12 PM
Never thought I'd see the Mountain West in position to get four teams in, while the Pac-10 may only get one.

I was thinking the same thing. Props to the Mountain West though. Nice to see them get recognition when they dont get the deserved recognition in the BCS :D

jipops
03-09-2010, 01:52 PM
The current bracketology has a possible 2nd round meeting between Duke and Louisville out in the West. I would personally not like for Duke to have any part of a Big East team in the 2nd round, especially a team that I believe may be better than their record. This same Louisville team has swept Syracuse. Certainly they are better than an 8 seed?

IBleedBlue
03-09-2010, 01:58 PM
Well, even if you looked at other brackets, we are meeting one big east team at some point.
I would rather play Louisville seeded 8th than play WVU or Villanova. I think they are more dangerous than Louisville.
And our team has shown great composure this year handling the full court pressure (clemson twice) and scoring against it.

hurleyfor3
03-09-2010, 02:02 PM
My candidate for "most reminiscence-inspiring second round opponent" is Unlv. Check their record, they're perfect for a 7/10 or 8/9 game.

cbnaylor
03-09-2010, 02:17 PM
I agree, I'm not fond of Duke facing any big east team. Maybe since this year is the year to break trends, we will finally snap a losing streak to big east opponents in the tourney.

Memphis Devil
03-09-2010, 02:26 PM
The current bracketology has a possible 2nd round meeting between Duke and Louisville out in the West. I would personally not like for Duke to have any part of a Big East team in the 2nd round, especially a team that I believe may be better than their record. This same Louisville team has swept Syracuse. Certainly they are better than an 8 seed?

I don't think that they are better than an 8th seed. If you look at their record, their next best win was at UConn. I think the games against the 'Cuse can be written off to a perfect storm type of event. Don't forget that this was a team that lost at Marquette by 21 coming into the 'Cuse game. Also, this team was on the bubble without the second win against the 'Cuse and a good showing in the Big East tourney. Maybe they are as high as a 6th seed, but 8 seems pretty fair to me.

jimsumner
03-09-2010, 02:29 PM
For the record, Duke has a two-game NCAAT losing streak v. the Big East.

If I had my druthers, I wouldn't want to meet Louisville in the second round, either. But Duke might have to beat a BE bully somewhere along the line. I rather suspect Duke would love a chance to play WVU or Nova in the Elite Eight. Exorcise some demons and get some payback.

A-Tex Devil
03-09-2010, 02:43 PM
For the record, Duke has a two-game NCAAT losing streak v. the Big East.

If I had my druthers, I wouldn't want to meet Louisville in the second round, either. But Duke might have to beat a BE bully somewhere along the line. I rather suspect Duke would love a chance to play WVU or Nova in the Elite Eight. Exorcise some demons and get some payback.

I would love to beat 'Nova, but talk about a team that is a horrible matchup for us. Unless we run some matchup zone (similar to what MD was running against us in the first half) and destroy the offensive glass, I'd be pessimistic.

WVU is not as bad of a matchup. Their offensive is heavily dependent on 3s, which we defend well. If Thomas/Zoubek could contain Ebanks, I think we could hold our own just fine.

I'm not worried about Lousiville in that we should handle them. If we can't beat an 8 seed (and they are a true 8 seed), then we are overrated and the ACC is garbage this year.

Troublemaker
03-09-2010, 02:48 PM
The current bracketology has a possible 2nd round meeting between Duke and Louisville out in the West. I would personally not like for Duke to have any part of a Big East team in the 2nd round, especially a team that I believe may be better than their record. This same Louisville team has swept Syracuse. Certainly they are better than an 8 seed?

I agree with you. And it is examples like this that remind me not to become too invested in rooting for a 1 seed. I want a 1 seed, yes, but the value of getting a 1 seed is almost entirely in being able to avoid a matchup with Kentucky, Kansas, and Syracuse until the Final Four. That's not insignificant, but since Duke hasn't advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2004, I find myself more interested in finding out whom our potential first, second, and third round opponents would be this season.

I truly wouldn't mind a tough Elite 8 or Final 4 matchup. I think if Duke advances that deep into the tournament, it would be a joyous occasion regardless of whom the upcoming opponent would be. What would really annoy me, though, would be running into tough early round matchups that reduce Duke's chances to advance deep. And I think we can run into those tough matchups just as easily as a 1 seed as we could as a 2 seed. I mean, Louisville could be an 8 seed, Texas could be an 8 seed, Wisconsin (Pomeroy's #3 team) could be a 4 seed, and so on. It's just luck. The marginal advantages of being a 1 seed as opposed to a 2 seed manifest themselves better over the course of several years and several brackets. In the case of any single year or single bracket (like the upcoming 2010 NCAA tournament), there is a lot of luck and variability involved in bracketing.

All I'm saying is, I'm trying not to get too caught up in a fervent desire for a 1 seed.

A-Tex Devil
03-09-2010, 03:07 PM
I agree with you. And it is examples like this that remind me not to become too invested in rooting for a 1 seed. I want a 1 seed, yes, but the value of getting a 1 seed is almost entirely in being able to avoid a matchup with Kentucky, Kansas, and Syracuse until the Final Four. That's not insignificant, but since Duke hasn't advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2004, I find myself more interested in finding out whom our potential first, second, and third round opponents would be this season.


I tend to agree that any round (after round 1) could be a loss if it's a bad matchup or we don't show up, but the main reason I want a 1 seed is that not only do we not have to face a 1 seed until the final four, more importantly, we don't have to face a 2/3 seed until the Elite 8.

I know our 1 v 4/5 luck hasn't been great recently, but the path is markedly easier. It's all about edges. 4 and 5 seeds are more likely to get knocked off than 2/3 seeds, the 16/1 game is significantly easier than 15/2. I think the gap between 4/5 seeds and 2/3 seeds has closed in the last 2 weeks, but I also think it's still wider than normal.

Troublemaker
03-09-2010, 03:20 PM
I'm not worried about Lousiville in that we should handle them. If we can't beat an 8 seed (and they are a true 8 seed), then we are overrated and the ACC is garbage this year.

Well, Duke would be a favorite against any 8 or 9 seed. But there's still a difference between being a 70% favorite and a 90% favorite, i.e. the difference between facing a "bad" second round matchup and a "good" one. Of course, I'm pulling those percentages out of thin air; I don't know what Duke's true odds are vs. Louisville or vs. a typical second round opponent (and others might disagree entirely and think Louisville is a weak second round opponent compared to the "average" option). I'm just saying, not all 8 seeds are created equal.


I tend to agree that any round (after round 1) could be a loss if it's a bad matchup or we don't show up, but the main reason I want a 1 seed is that not only do we not have to face a 1 seed until the final four, more importantly, we don't have to face a 2/3 seed until the Elite 8.

I know our 1 v 4/5 luck hasn't been great recently, but the path is markedly easier. It's all about edges. 4 and 5 seeds are more likely to get knocked off than 2/3 seeds, the 16/1 game is significantly easier than 15/2. I think the gap between 4/5 seeds and 2/3 seeds has closed in the last 2 weeks, but I also think it's still wider than normal.

I think the gap between the 3 seed and the 4/5 seeds is tenuous. I mean, it could exist, but it just depends on how individual teams are seeded. Pitt could be a 3 seed, and Michigan St. could be a 4 seed, for example (but again, this is quite subjective -- some may prefer to face MSU rather than Pitt).

Keep in mind also that a 3 seed is more likely to get upset than BOTH the 4 seed and the 5 seed together. That is, if you're a 2 seed, your odds of facing a 6 seed or lower in the Sweet 16 are better than if you're a 1 seed (because only one team, the 3 seed, has to get upset rather than two teams, both the 4 and the 5 seeds).

Greg_Newton
03-09-2010, 03:30 PM
The eternal question... what do you do with a team with weak season-long results but is clearly a very good team come March? If you seed them too low, it's not fair to the teams they play in early rounds. If you seed them too high, it trivializes the whole regular season and isn't fair to teams that took care of business earlier in the season.

I tend to think you earn your seeding by what you accomplish in the regular season - otherwise, what's the point in keeping score until March? Still, sucks for whoever has to face Louisville in the 2nd round...

Tim1515
03-09-2010, 03:31 PM
Duke does not need to win the ACC tournament for a #1 seed...they just need to make it there. It has been said in the past that the seeds are determined before the last round of games finish on Sunday.

Even if OSU and WV make their title game i think Duke would be #1 if they made theirs based on RPI and SOS being higher...it is hard to argue against that.

juise
03-09-2010, 04:27 PM
I'm just saying, not all 8 seeds are created equal.

I completely agree with this. I would much rather face a medium-talent team that lived up to their potential (Cal, UNLV, Northern Iowa) than a very talented team that has been streaky or underachieving (Texas, Louisville). That talent always seems to find its focus when it faces Duke.

juise
03-09-2010, 07:08 PM
Having said that, Charlotte beat Louisville (@UL) by 22 and Duke beat Charlotte by 42. The transitive property never fails! :D

CDu
03-09-2010, 07:16 PM
The eternal question... what do you do with a team with weak season-long results but is clearly a very good team come March? If you seed them too low, it's not fair to the teams they play in early rounds. If you seed them too high, it trivializes the whole regular season and isn't fair to teams that took care of business earlier in the season.

I tend to think you earn your seeding by what you accomplish in the regular season - otherwise, what's the point in keeping score until March? Still, sucks for whoever has to face Louisville in the 2nd round...

I don't really think Louisville is that great. Sure, they beat Syracuse. But I think that's more a matchups thing than anything else. Pitino coaches zone defense, so he knows how to defend zone defense. That's a big part of why they've beaten Syracuse the last six times they've faced Syracuse.

Aside from the Syracuse wins, Louisville has the following losses in in the last four weeks:
19 point loss at St John's
10 point loss vs Georgetown (home)
21 point loss at Marquette

That's not exactly evidence to me that they're peaking at the right time. I think it's more evidence that the Syracuse wins are just good matchups for Louisville and/or bad games by Syracuse.

sagegrouse
03-09-2010, 09:06 PM
Duke does not need to win the ACC tournament for a #1 seed...they just need to make it there. It has been said in the past that the seeds are determined before the last round of games finish on Sunday.

.

I don't believe a word of it. It is fairly trivial to work out excursions for the two major conferences that won't get settled until Sunday PM: ACC and the even later Big Ten. If Duke loses, you just swap a #2 for a #1 and let the #2 in its regional become the #1.

The Big Ten becomes more of a challenge, in that the rankings are so fluid among the top teams. With Duke, less so.

sagegrouse
'And, of course, if we lose Friday or Saturday, all bets are off'

Turk
03-09-2010, 09:47 PM
1. Lunardi just had a chat wrap where he said years ago The Committee. used to finish the top of the bracket before the Sunday tourney games were finished, but now they keep multiple versions that handle the possible combinations. So that shouldn't be an issue.

2. For the sake of discussion, let's say the Devils avoid a bad loss and get to the ACC finals. Suppose someone (e.g. Ohio State?) runs the table in their tournament and passes Duke for the last #1. I'd expect Duke to be no worse than the highest #2 seed on the S-curve. There should be hardly any difference between the two draws. The other thing to keep in mind is that The Committee can move a team plus or minus one line on the S-curve to handle all the seeding / placement rules, so there is a bit of luck involved.