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View Full Version : Georgia Tech on the NCAAT bubble



rotogod00
03-06-2010, 08:57 PM
Heading into today's game, Tech was a "solid" 10 seed (according to Lunardi). But with the loss, they end 7-9 in conference. Do they need a W in the ACC Tourney to solidify their bid or are they still in with a loss?

JasonEvans
03-06-2010, 09:01 PM
Heading into today's game, Tech was a "solid" 10 seed (according to Lunardi). But with the loss, they end 7-9 in conference. Do they need a W in the ACC Tourney to solidify their bid or are they still in with a loss?

They unquestionably need 1 win.

If things break strangely in some of the conference tournaments and some other bubble teams finish strong, they may need 2 wins or at least a very good showing against Maryland (or Duke) in the ACC Quarters.

--Jason "Hewitt won't lose his job for this mediocre season, but he should" Evans

rotogod00
03-06-2010, 11:02 PM
well, if they do need a W, it'll be very sweet to do it against carolina!

gumbomoop
03-06-2010, 11:13 PM
Hard for me to imagine they don't need at least one win. I think they need 2. Easily, easily the 2 most disastrously disappointing teams in this season's ACC in the 7-10 game Thurs night. I think it's a straightforward statement of fact rather than piling on to say the coaches are tied for WCOY. Two teams that should be absolutely desperate to win, so it will be interesting to see if their play is intense, or pathetic.

SCMatt33
03-06-2010, 11:34 PM
I think that it's less that they need a win more than they can't afford a bad loss, which is the case if they don't win one. They have quality wins that a lot of other bubble teams don't have. The imbalanced schedule really makes conference record alone somewhat irrelevant. The five teams that Gtech played twice were Duke, Clemson, Wake, Florida State, and UNC. Four out of the five will more than likely be in the tourney and have a top 50 rpi, and UNC has the best rpi of the "bad" acc teams at 83. Also their only game against Maryland was on the road so out of the top 5 ACC teams as far as NCAA pecking order goes, they had to play every single one on the road. OOC, they have a top 50 win over Siena, plus a good win at Charlotte, and a respectable win over USC. Their only OOC losses came against Dayton in November and at Georgia, who seems to only beat good teams at home. The down side is that their only conference road win came at UNC (lol) and had losses at Miami and UVA.

At the end of the day though, there are two big reasons why Gtech is still in as of now.

1) The committee is no longer considering last 12 as a factor so their recent slide won't mean anything compared to if it were spread out.

2) There is no one better out their. Try and name a team currently on the outside who has a better resume. All of the teams that were close have taken worse losses than Gtech did this week. Look at Dayton losing at home to St. Louis (ok to lose to them, not at home), Miss St losing to Auburn, and Rhode Island losing to UMass.

gumbomoop
03-07-2010, 12:08 AM
There is no one better out their. Try and name a team currently on the outside who has a better resume. All of the teams that were close have taken worse losses than Gtech did this week. Look at Dayton losing at home to St. Louis (ok to lose to them, not at home), Miss St losing to Auburn, and Rhode Island losing to UMass.

I concede your point about other unimpressive resumes. But just to push GaT's situation a bit further, are you saying that if they lose to UNC, they're still in? If yes, that does prove your point! It's one thing to say maybe they need 2 wins [my speculation]; it's quite another to say they need no more wins, and can take a [very] bad loss.

Say they lose to UNC, and Rhode Is, Dayton, Miss St, UAB, UTEP, Wichita St, Minnesota do well in their respective tourneys, or Wash/Ariz St wins Pac 10, I'd put Cal in ahead of GaT.

I probably should be rooting for GaT, as it helps ACC, and involves another loss for the Heels, but their play has been so pathetic that I hate to see them in sort of by default.

roywhite
03-07-2010, 12:12 AM
Hard for me to imagine they don't need at least one win. I think they need 2. Easily, easily the 2 most disastrously disappointing teams in this season's ACC in the 7-10 game Thurs night. I think it's a straightforward statement of fact rather than piling on to say the coaches are tied for WCOY. Two teams that should be absolutely desperate to win, so it will be interesting to see if their play is intense, or pathetic.

Probably give that WCOY award to Paul Hewitt, for lifetime achievement if nothing else. Talk about doing less with more...

Watched parts of the VaTech--GaTech game today; talk about a rough game! I thought a hockey game was going to break out.

SCMatt33
03-07-2010, 12:31 AM
I concede your point about other unimpressive resumes. But just to push GaT's situation a bit further, are you saying that if they lose to UNC, they're still in? If yes, that does prove your point! It's one thing to say maybe they need 2 wins [my speculation]; it's quite another to say they need no more wins, and can take a [very] bad loss.

Say they lose to UNC, and Rhode Is, Dayton, Miss St, UAB, UTEP, Wichita St, Minnesota do well in their respective tourneys, or Wash/Ariz St wins Pac 10, I'd put Cal in ahead of GaT.

I probably should be rooting for GaT, as it helps ACC, and involves another loss for the Heels, but their play has been so pathetic that I hate to see them in sort of by default.

I didn't say that. The first thing I said was that they can't afford a bad loss. I was saying that other teams on the bubble need to pick up a quality win, and I don't think Gtech needs to do that. If they were theoretically playing a better team in the first round, they could lose, but since it's UNC with an rpi in the 80's, they can't afford that kind of L. If they lose their first game, they're in big trouble, but not out of the running if other teams continue to screw up as well and the bubble doesn't shrink. 1 win will more than likely put them in.

gumbomoop
03-07-2010, 12:57 AM
I didn't say that. The first thing I said was that they can't afford a bad loss. I was saying that other teams on the bubble need to pick up a quality win, and I don't think Gtech needs to do that. If they were theoretically playing a better team in the first round, they could lose, but since it's UNC with an rpi in the 80's, they can't afford that kind of L. If they lose their first game, they're in big trouble, but not out of the running if other teams continue to screw up as well and the bubble doesn't shrink. 1 win will more than likely put them in.

Yes, on review I see that I failed to read carefully enough the particular spin in that first sentence of your earlier post. So if they lose to UNC - a bad, bad loss - and still make the tourney, wow. If they lose, I sure hope some of the other bubble teams win a few, for GaT backing in to NCAAT in this scenario would be appalling.

SCMatt33
03-07-2010, 01:29 AM
Yes, on review I see that I failed to read carefully enough the particular spin in that first sentence of your earlier post. So if they lose to UNC - a bad, bad loss - and still make the tourney, wow. If they lose, I sure hope some of the other bubble teams win a few, for GaT backing in to NCAAT in this scenario would be appalling.

I know what you mean. That's just how bad the bubble is...and they want to EXPAND the tourney. Laughable.

brevity
03-07-2010, 05:07 AM
well, if they do need a W, it'll be very sweet to do it against carolina!

They may need 2 wins because beating Carolina is -- ahem -- not good enough of a win.

One thing I'm looking forward to hearing on Selection Sunday: a lack of complaints as to which deserving bubble teams were left out of the field. This year there are none. For the sake of filling up airtime, there'll probably be lame debates about why one mediocre team made it in instead of another.

CBS may need to take Billy Packer out of the rest home just for that.

dukeimac
03-07-2010, 09:49 AM
I think the history of the tournament has been that very VERY few teams, maybe 2 or 3, have made it to the dance when they finished with a losing conference record. If memory serves me right, many teams didn't make the dance when they finished .500 in conference and then lost their first conference tourney game.

I believe a few teams made it with a losing conference record, 2 or 3 teams, but that is when their conference is considered to be that strong. THe ACC is not considered a strong conference. Heck, VT is considered a bubble team or close to it and they have a much better conference record, 10-6. Heck Wake is considered out and if they win today they will finish 9-7. Notre Dame is considered a bubble team, they have a winning conference record and the Big East is considered a very good conference. So if ND is considered a bubble team or close to it with a winning conference record and playing in, what they consider, the best conference that doesn't hold much hope for anyone finishing at .500 or worse in their conference.

GT is out, with no chance of getting in unless the win the ACC tourney.

ice-9
03-07-2010, 09:52 AM
I think the history of the tournament has been that very VERY few teams, maybe 2 or 3, have made it to the dance when they finished with a losing conference record. If memory serves me right, many teams didn't make the dance when they finished .500 in conference and then lost their first conference tourney game.

I believe a few teams made it with a losing conference record, 2 or 3 teams, but that is when their conference is considered to be that strong. THe ACC is not considered a strong conference. Heck, VT is considered a bubble team or close to it and they have a much better conference record, 10-6. Heck Wake is considered out and if they win today they will finish 9-7. Notre Dame is considered a bubble team, they have a winning conference record and the Big East is considered a very good conference. So if ND is considered a bubble team or close to it with a winning conference record and playing in, what they consider, the best conference that doesn't hold much hope for anyone finishing at .500 or worse in their conference.

GT is out, with no chance of getting in unless the win the ACC tourney.


Uh, you might want to check out a few analysts' opinions on the bubble. Most have 7 ACC teams in, including VT, GT and WF.

If those three teams win at least one in the ACC tournament, they're safely in.

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 11:06 AM
as of this morning, lunardi has 22 bubble teams for 11 remaining spots. wake, v tech, and g tech occupy spots 2, 3, and 4 out of the 11. but i agree, g tech can't have a "bad" loss against carolina in the Tourney or they're out. win and they're in.

Olympic Fan
03-07-2010, 11:49 AM
I think the history of the tournament has been that very VERY few teams, maybe 2 or 3, have made it to the dance when they finished with a losing conference record. If memory serves me right, many teams didn't make the dance when they finished .500 in conference and then lost their first conference tourney game.

I believe a few teams made it with a losing conference record, 2 or 3 teams, but that is when their conference is considered to be that strong. THe ACC is not considered a strong conference. Heck, VT is considered a bubble team or close to it and they have a much better conference record, 10-6.

GT is out, with no chance of getting in unless the win the ACC tourney.

Sigh, how much misinformation can you pack in one paragraph?

"very, VERY few teams, maybe 2 or 3, have made it to the dance when they finished with a losing conference record"?

As a matter of fact, since the NCAA opened its field to more than two teams per conference in 1980, 14 ACC teams with losing conference records have gotten into the field as at large teams (not counting 6-8 NC State in 1987, which got in by winning the ACC Tournament) -- including 7-9 Maryland last year. Another 12 with .500 conference records have gotten in. 13 of those 14 teams finished two games below .500 in the ACC (including 6-8 Virginia in 1984, which lost its first ACC tourney game and reached the Final Four). Florida State -- just 6-10 in ACC play, got a bid in 1998.

That's just the ACC alone -- quite a few sub .500 teams from the other power conferences have also gotten in.

I don't know how many times we have to say this -- conference records are NOT a criteria that the selection committee considers. I know the ESPN talking heads have a hard time grasping this, but especially in the era of unbalanced conference schedules, conference records are meaningless.

Teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will be judged for the games they played -- in and out of conference. In many ways, Georgia Tech -- which played almost the toughest ACC lineup possible -- has a more imprssive conference record at 7-9 than Virginia Tech -- which played the weakest conference schedule possible -- does at 10-6. Overall, there's no question that Georgia Tech has played a significantly stronger schedule and has more quality wins than the Hokes. Will that be enough to overcome the difference between VPI's 23-7 record vs. Georgia Tech's 19-11 mark? I don't know -- the Hokies clearly helped themselves by winning in Atlanta Saturday.

I will say that as of Saturday night, both Lunardi and Palm -- the two best bracketologists in my humble opinion (and their most consistent success is guessing which teams get in and which teams don't) both had Georgia Tech in the field -- and not even among the last four in -- even after their loss to Virginia Tech.

Nobody is saying they are a lock. A loss to UNC in the ACC Tournament opener would hurt, although technically, it wouldn't be viewed as a bad loss (since UNC is still in the top 100).

But it's all in flux -- as somebody pointed out, Georgia Tech (and Wake and VPI) are battling teams like Notre Dame, Miss State, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, UConn, Arizona State, Dayton, St. Louis for the last few spots in the field. Which of those makes a deep tourney run? How many solid at large teams lose in their tournies, knocking one of the bubble teams off the bubble?

Clemson still has work to do. But they are still very much alive for an at large bid.

PS The idea that the ACC is "not considered a strong conference" is ludicrus -- you've been listening to Doug Gottlieb too much. The ACC is one of the top three leagues in all the computer rankings the committee will look at -- ahead of the mighty Big East in two of the three.

CDu
03-07-2010, 12:21 PM
Clemson still has work to do. But they are still very much alive for an at large bid.

I assume this was a typo (and you meant GT), as you didn't mention Clemson anywhere else. But with wins over Butler, Maryland, FSU (x2), and GT, 21 wins overall and no bad losses (one borderline one in BC), I think Clemson is pretty much a lock.

Olympic Fan
03-07-2010, 12:57 PM
I assume this was a typo (and you meant GT), as you didn't mention Clemson anywhere else. But with wins over Butler, Maryland, FSU (x2), and GT, 21 wins overall and no bad losses (one borderline one in BC), I think Clemson is pretty much a lock.

yep, it was a typo ... clemson is pretty safe after winning at fsu.

OldPhiKap
03-07-2010, 01:12 PM
Tech has beaten the Heels twice this year already, and has a big advantage on the inside. They should not make the tourney if they can't put the Heels away on Thursday.

As much fun as it is to pile on 'Ol Roy, Hewitt's incompetence is off the scale.

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 01:33 PM
Florida within 4 of Kentucky with 12 minutes to go. Yellow Jackets better root long and hard for the Cats to pull it out as the Gators are one of the teams Tech is fighting with for an at-large bid

rotogod00
03-07-2010, 02:14 PM
Kentucky survives, good news for Tech