Potential ACC Tiebreakers

[Olympic Fan]

Obviously, if Duke beats Maryland Wednesday night there's no drama left -- Duke clinches the ACC regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament ... no matter what happens Saturday against the also-ran team from down the road.

That's the fun way to go.

But I was looking at the updated standings and it struck me that we now have four teams tied for third (all 8-6 in the ACC); two teams tied for eighth (5-9) and three teams tied for 10th (4-10).

Going into the last week, nobody has a bye left -- everybody plays two games this week.

Okay, here's what I was thinking. If Maryland happens to win Wednesday, they will tie Duke in the standings, heading into the weekend games -- UNC at Duke Saturday and Maryland at Virginia Sunday. Call me crazy, but I kind of suspect Duke and Maryland will both win this weekend.

So what happens if both end up 13-3 in the ACC?

First, they share the regular season title ... ACC tiebreakers only apply to tournament seeding.

Second, it looks like most scenarios favor Duke to get the No. 1 seed.

Since the two would have split head-to-head, the next step is to go down the standings and take the teams one-by-one (or two-three at a time if they are tied) and compare records. The first time you get a clear win, that team wins the tiebreaker.

That's where the four-team tie comes in. Impossible to guess the final standings, but it's fair to suggest that:

Florida State 8-6
Clemson 8-6
Wake Forest 8-6
Virginia Tech 8-6

Will finish third, fourth, etc. -- in some other... The one other team with a chance to crack the top six is Georgia Tech at 7-7. The Jackets are the only danger for Duke.

Important point -- since the ACC adopted an unbalanced schedule, the rule is that 1-0 = 2-0 (and 0-1 = 0-2). That's important because Duke is 1-0 vs. Florida State and Maryland is 2-0 vs. the 'Noles. Both teams are 1-0 against Virginia Tech.

But Duke is 1-0 vs. Wake, while Maryland is 0-1 against the Deacs. And Duke is 2-0 against Clemson, while Maryland is 1-1 against the Tigers.

That means Duke wins any possible order or combination involving the current 8-6 teams.

But 7-7 Georgia Tech is our danger -- we were 1-1 against the Jackets; Maryland was 1-0. If Tech surges into third or into a tie for third (or even a tie for fifth if FSU and VPI are in third/fourth), then Maryland could win the tiebreaker.

None of the bottom five teams can figure in a Duke-Maryland tiebreaker ...

Anyway, it's to Duke's advantage if Clemson can beat Georgia Tech Tuesday night at Littlejohn. That would virtually guarantee Duke the top seed in the tournament (barring an unlikely 0-2 finish by the Devils).

Of course, we can avoid the whole mess by beating the Terps again. That's clearly ideal since it gives Duke sole possession of first place.

But figuring out the possibilities is fun too.

[Newton_14]

Obviously, if Duke beats Maryland Wednesday night there's no drama left -- Duke clinches the ACC regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament ... no matter what happens Saturday against the also-ran team from down the road.

That's the fun way to go.

But I was looking at the updated standings and it struck me that we now have four teams tied for third (all 8-6 in the ACC); two teams tied for eighth (5-9) and three teams tied for 10th (4-10).

Going into the last week, nobody has a bye left -- everybody plays two games this week.

Okay, here's what I was thinking. If Maryland happens to win Wednesday, they will tie Duke in the standings, heading into the weekend games -- UNC at Duke Saturday and Maryland at Virginia Sunday. Call me crazy, but I kind of suspect Duke and Maryland will both win this weekend.

So what happens if both end up 13-3 in the ACC?

First, they share the regular season title ... ACC tiebreakers only apply to tournament seeding.

Second, it looks like most scenarios favor Duke to get the No. 1 seed.

Since the two would have split head-to-head, the next step is to go down the standings and take the teams one-by-one (or two-three at a time if they are tied) and compare records. The first time you get a clear win, that team wins the tiebreaker.

That's where the four-team tie comes in. Impossible to guess the final standings, but it's fair to suggest that:

Florida State 8-6
Clemson 8-6
Wake Forest 8-6
Virginia Tech 8-6

Will finish third, fourth, etc. -- in some other... The one other team with a chance to crack the top six is Georgia Tech at 7-7. The Jackets are the only danger for Duke.

Important point -- since the ACC adopted an unbalanced schedule, the rule is that 1-0 = 2-0 (and 0-1 = 0-2). That's important because Duke is 1-0 vs. Florida State and Maryland is 2-0 vs. the 'Noles. Both teams are 1-0 against Virginia Tech.

But Duke is 1-0 vs. Wake, while Maryland is 0-1 against the Deacs. And Duke is 2-0 against Clemson, while Maryland is 1-1 against the Tigers.

That means Duke wins any possible order or combination involving the current 8-6 teams.

But 7-7 Georgia Tech is our danger -- we were 1-1 against the Jackets; Maryland was 1-0. If Tech surges into third or into a tie for third (or even a tie for fifth if FSU and VPI are in third/fourth), then Maryland could win the tiebreaker.

None of the bottom five teams can figure in a Duke-Maryland tiebreaker ...

Anyway, it's to Duke's advantage if Clemson can beat Georgia Tech Tuesday night at Littlejohn. That would virtually guarantee Duke the top seed in the tournament (barring an unlikely 0-2 finish by the Devils).

Of course, we can avoid the whole mess by beating the Terps again. That's clearly ideal since it gives Duke sole possession of first place.

But figuring out the possibilities is fun too.

Thanks for posting this. Good write up. I had not checked to see how the tiebreakers would impact us should we somehow not get the win Wed. I like Clemson's chances to get the win at home against GT. Clemson stole one on the road today against FSU. Would love for the tigers to take it home and finish 3rd in the standings.

[airowe]

Let's go Tigers!

[-bdbd]

Good summary Olympic. I was wondering about just that thing. I like our odds (even though I'm more worried about securing a 1 seed in the NCAA's now, than the ACCT). Of course I vote we just take care of business in the idyllic confines of Comcast Ctr., and it becomes real easy to figure out. Good thing that gentlemanly team and their fans won't be very excited about us coming to town... :rolleyes:

Go Clemson!


:D :D :D

[El_Diablo]

Thanks for all that research and analysis! I was wondering how a potential tie would be broken. Hopefully we render all your hard work moot though. :D

[loldevilz]

It's really unfortunate that both our regular season title and #1 seed depend on a game at Maryland. I suppose for the first time we will see what the Gods have in store for this Duke team.

[VaDukie]

In years past I've seen someone post a chart mapping out all possible seed implications around the last week of the regular season, although I guess it would only work when every team has played 15 games. Anyone else remember this/know who created it?

[Faustus]

There is also another angle to this massive logjam in the middle situation (and yet another reason to hate the conference expansion). If the season were to end tonight (or if everyone treads water the final two games) there would be a four way tie for third place. Now the top four teams in the standings receive byes for the first round of conference play, which is a HUGE advantage to have gained (and we've GOT one, happily). But, uh-oh... there would be SIX teams deserving those four prized spots and thus two of the four third place teams (I don't know all the remaining match-ups but I suspect it's certainly possible) would under the current rules be demoted to an extra round of tournament play, making it far more difficult for them to win it. This seems grossly unfair to me, but there would be no avoiding it, and the tie-breaker mess among four teams could be epic. I do loathe expansion...

[pfrduke]

Obviously, if Duke beats Maryland Wednesday night there's no drama left -- Duke clinches the ACC regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament ... no matter what happens Saturday against the also-ran team from down the road.

That's the fun way to go.

But I was looking at the updated standings and it struck me that we now have four teams tied for third (all 8-6 in the ACC); two teams tied for eighth (5-9) and three teams tied for 10th (4-10).

Going into the last week, nobody has a bye left -- everybody plays two games this week.

Okay, here's what I was thinking. If Maryland happens to win Wednesday, they will tie Duke in the standings, heading into the weekend games -- UNC at Duke Saturday and Maryland at Virginia Sunday. Call me crazy, but I kind of suspect Duke and Maryland will both win this weekend.

So what happens if both end up 13-3 in the ACC?

First, they share the regular season title ... ACC tiebreakers only apply to tournament seeding.

Second, it looks like most scenarios favor Duke to get the No. 1 seed.

Since the two would have split head-to-head, the next step is to go down the standings and take the teams one-by-one (or two-three at a time if they are tied) and compare records. The first time you get a clear win, that team wins the tiebreaker.

That's where the four-team tie comes in. Impossible to guess the final standings, but it's fair to suggest that:

Florida State 8-6
Clemson 8-6
Wake Forest 8-6
Virginia Tech 8-6

Will finish third, fourth, etc. -- in some other... The one other team with a chance to crack the top six is Georgia Tech at 7-7. The Jackets are the only danger for Duke.

Important point -- since the ACC adopted an unbalanced schedule, the rule is that 1-0 = 2-0 (and 0-1 = 0-2). That's important because Duke is 1-0 vs. Florida State and Maryland is 2-0 vs. the 'Noles. Both teams are 1-0 against Virginia Tech.

But Duke is 1-0 vs. Wake, while Maryland is 0-1 against the Deacs. And Duke is 2-0 against Clemson, while Maryland is 1-1 against the Tigers.

That means Duke wins any possible order or combination involving the current 8-6 teams.

But 7-7 Georgia Tech is our danger -- we were 1-1 against the Jackets; Maryland was 1-0. If Tech surges into third or into a tie for third (or even a tie for fifth if FSU and VPI are in third/fourth), then Maryland could win the tiebreaker.

None of the bottom five teams can figure in a Duke-Maryland tiebreaker ...

Anyway, it's to Duke's advantage if Clemson can beat Georgia Tech Tuesday night at Littlejohn. That would virtually guarantee Duke the top seed in the tournament (barring an unlikely 0-2 finish by the Devils).

Of course, we can avoid the whole mess by beating the Terps again. That's clearly ideal since it gives Duke sole possession of first place.

But figuring out the possibilities is fun too.

The short way of saying this is that as long as Clemson or Wake finishes ahead of Georgia Tech, we win the tiebreak.

Although, do the tiebreaks come into play in figuring out the tiebreaks? That is, what happens if Duke and Maryland have the same record, and Georgia Tech and Clemson have the same record. Whose tiebreak do they figure out first when determining the seedings? Or would they both be combined (i.e., we went 3-1 against Clemson and GT, Maryand went 2-1, so we win the tiebreak)?

[Duvall]

The short way of saying this is that as long as Clemson or Wake finishes ahead of Georgia Tech, we win the tiebreak.

Although, do the tiebreaks come into play in figuring out the tiebreaks? That is, what happens if Duke and Maryland have the same record, and Georgia Tech and Clemson have the same record. Whose tiebreak do they figure out first when determining the seedings? Or would they both be combined (i.e., we went 3-1 against Clemson and GT, Maryand went 2-1, so we win the tiebreak)?

Combined. It's the aggregate record against the teams tied in that spot.

And yes, this makes no sense with unbalanced schedules.

ETA: Seeding procedures (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html)

[pfrduke]

Combined. It's the aggregate record against the teams tied in that spot.

And yes, this makes no sense with unbalanced schedules.

ETA: Seeding procedures (http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022607aaa.html)

So the answer then is that as long as either Clemson or Wake finishes either ahead of or tied with Georgia Tech, we win the tiebreak. The only way we don't win it is if GT goes 2-0 and both Clemson and Wake go 0-2 to finish the week. But that's not possible, since Clemson plays Wake, so one of them is guaranteed to get to 9 wins. We've already secured the tiebreak, I think.

[cptnflash]

Awesome work Olympic. I don't have much to add, except that if you're willing to assume we beat UNC fairly easily in the season finale (which I am), then the Maryland game is really about a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. I think if we win on Wednesday, it's ours. We would finish the regular season on a 10 game winning streak, we would win an extremely competitive conference (and the best in the country according to Pomeroy) by a minimum of 2 games, and we would almost certainly advance to at least the semis in the ACC tournament because we'd have four days to rest before playing a tired non-NCAA team on Friday. Given the losses recently sustained by other top teams, I think it would be impossible to deny us a #1 seed at that point. I've been rooting for MD to lose for three weeks now, but in retrospect I'm actually glad they didn't. They will almost certainly be ranked tomorrow morning and the opportunity to beat them on the road is a chance to record the marquee win that some claim we're still missing.

Make no mistake... the MD game is our ticket to the Final Four.

[Kedsy]

Awesome work Olympic. I don't have much to add, except that if you're willing to assume we beat UNC fairly easily in the season finale (which I am), then the Maryland game is really about a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. I think if we win on Wednesday, it's ours. We would finish the regular season on a 10 game winning streak, we would win an extremely competitive conference (and the best in the country according to Pomeroy) by a minimum of 2 games, and we would almost certainly advance to at least the semis in the ACC tournament because we'd have four days to rest before playing a tired non-NCAA team on Friday. Given the losses recently sustained by other top teams, I think it would be impossible to deny us a #1 seed at that point. I've been rooting for MD to lose for three weeks now, but in retrospect I'm actually glad they didn't. They will almost certainly be ranked tomorrow morning and the opportunity to beat them on the road is a chance to record the marquee win that some claim we're still missing.

Make no mistake... the MD game is our ticket to the Final Four.

If we don't win the ACC tourney, I'll be very surprised to get a #1 seed. Hopefully, we'll win out going into Selection Sunday, so we won't have to find out which of us is right.

[gw67]

Good work Olympic. I had no idea how they figured those things out for the unbalanced schedule and I would not have looked it up. Frankly, the ACCT doesn't hold a lot of interest for me this year. The two teams that I root for, Devils and Terps, are solidly into the NCAAT and I could care less about their seeding. Like the VT-Md game, I hope both teams give us a good show on Wednesday.

"Good thing that gentlemanly team and their fans won't be very excited about us coming to town... "

-bdbd,

I realize that you were jesting but a putdown of their players is not justified, IMO. The players seem like a good group. They don't play like thugs and have been on the receiving end of elbows, hard fouls and nastiness of fans during the games I've watched. A chunk of their fans deserve all the scorn they receive.

gw67

[james]

Obviously, if Duke beats Maryland Wednesday night there's no drama left -- Duke clinches the ACC regular season title and the top seed in the ACC Tournament ... no matter what happens Saturday against the also-ran team from down the road.

That's the fun way to go.

But I was looking at the updated standings and it struck me that we now have four teams tied for third (all 8-6 in the ACC); two teams tied for eighth (5-9) and three teams tied for 10th (4-10).

Going into the last week, nobody has a bye left -- everybody plays two games this week.

Okay, here's what I was thinking. If Maryland happens to win Wednesday, they will tie Duke in the standings, heading into the weekend games -- UNC at Duke Saturday and Maryland at Virginia Sunday. Call me crazy, but I kind of suspect Duke and Maryland will both win this weekend.

So what happens if both end up 13-3 in the ACC?

First, they share the regular season title ... ACC tiebreakers only apply to tournament seeding.

Second, it looks like most scenarios favor Duke to get the No. 1 seed.

Since the two would have split head-to-head, the next step is to go down the standings and take the teams one-by-one (or two-three at a time if they are tied) and compare records. The first time you get a clear win, that team wins the tiebreaker.

That's where the four-team tie comes in. Impossible to guess the final standings, but it's fair to suggest that:

Florida State 8-6
Clemson 8-6
Wake Forest 8-6
Virginia Tech 8-6

Will finish third, fourth, etc. -- in some other... The one other team with a chance to crack the top six is Georgia Tech at 7-7. The Jackets are the only danger for Duke.

Important point -- since the ACC adopted an unbalanced schedule, the rule is that 1-0 = 2-0 (and 0-1 = 0-2). That's important because Duke is 1-0 vs. Florida State and Maryland is 2-0 vs. the 'Noles. Both teams are 1-0 against Virginia Tech.

But Duke is 1-0 vs. Wake, while Maryland is 0-1 against the Deacs. And Duke is 2-0 against Clemson, while Maryland is 1-1 against the Tigers.

That means Duke wins any possible order or combination involving the current 8-6 teams.

But 7-7 Georgia Tech is our danger -- we were 1-1 against the Jackets; Maryland was 1-0. If Tech surges into third or into a tie for third (or even a tie for fifth if FSU and VPI are in third/fourth), then Maryland could win the tiebreaker.

None of the bottom five teams can figure in a Duke-Maryland tiebreaker ...

Anyway, it's to Duke's advantage if Clemson can beat Georgia Tech Tuesday night at Littlejohn. That would virtually guarantee Duke the top seed in the tournament (barring an unlikely 0-2 finish by the Devils).

Of course, we can avoid the whole mess by beating the Terps again. That's clearly ideal since it gives Duke sole possession of first place.

But figuring out the possibilities is fun too.

There are 4096 different ways the next 12 games can end up. In 3520 of them, Duke gets the top seed.

This is what my site calculates: http://www.accseeds.info/2010/ACC.html

(At this point, it is very big, as all 4096 combinations are listed.)

[Matches]

So bottom line, unless we go 0-2 this week we are assured of the #1 seed in the ACC tournament.

If we go 0-2 and Maryland goes 2-0, they'd be #1 and we'd be #2.

[MulletMan]

There are 4096 different ways the next 12 games can end up. In 3520 of them, Duke gets the top seed.

This is what my site calculates: http://www.accseeds.info/2010/ACC.html

(At this point, it is very big, as all 4096 combinations are listed.)

HOLY SH*@!!!!! :eek:

That's fun.

Can you embed that table at the very bottom into a post here?

[pfrduke]

There are 4096 different ways the next 12 games can end up. In 3520 of them, Duke gets the top seed.

This is what my site calculates: http://www.accseeds.info/2010/ACC.html

(At this point, it is very big, as all 4096 combinations are listed.)

I took a quick perusal of the site, and it looked like the only scenario you had listed where Duke finished with the second seed despite finishing with the same record as Maryland is if Clemson, VT, GT, and FSU tie at 9-7. I think we still have the tiebreaker there, though, because both teams are 5-1 against that group (Duke = 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0; Maryland = 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0), and then we have the better record against the next team (Wake). Am I missing something?

[pfrduke]

I took a quick perusal of the site, and it looked like the only scenario you had listed where Duke finished with the second seed despite finishing with the same record as Maryland is if Clemson, VT, GT, and FSU tie at 9-7. I think we still have the tiebreaker there, though, because both teams are 5-1 against that group (Duke = 2-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0; Maryland = 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0), and then we have the better record against the next team (Wake). Am I missing something?

Ditto where you have Clemson, GT, and FSU tied at 9-7. Our record against that group is identical to Maryland's against that group, and we have a better record against the VT/WF combo than Maryland does.

[james]

Good catch.

When I added the Atlantic 10, that introduced a small bug. The Atlantic 10 (and Conference USA) have a different approach to the 1-0/2-0 than the ACC; whereas the ACC (and Big East, and other BCS conferences) treat those as the same, in the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA, 2-0 is considered better than 1-0. When I added the analysis for those conferences, I revamped some of the code for looking at tie resolution to try to speed it up, and introduced a bug in resolving ties when examining more than 3 teams to resolve two teams.

Anyway, that's fixed. There are now 3584 combinations out of 4096.

A question to consider: Is the ACC's tiebreaker the best way to break ties? If you go up one level, to http://www.accseeds.info/2010/ I have the tiebreakers for nine conferences (ACC, Atlantic Ten, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Pacific Ten, Southeastern.) There are subtle differences between many of them. Which do you think is better?

At the end of the season, I may try running the program using different conference tiebreakers on the ACC data, just to see how it might be different.

[hurleyfor3]

A question to consider: Is the ACC's tiebreaker the best way to break ties? If you go up one level, to http://www.accseeds.info/2010/ I have the tiebreakers for nine conferences (ACC, Atlantic Ten, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, Pacific Ten, Southeastern.) There are subtle differences between many of them. Which do you think is better?


I'd get rid of the ladder system, which most conferences seem to use in some form, and introduce some sort of overall strength-of-victory system. Say, overall won-lost record within the conference of teams defeated. (Everyone plays 16 games, so this can be reduced to simply adding the conference games won of teams you've defeated, doublecounting teams you've swept.)

This incorporates the "beating good teams helps" element of the ladder while also considering that the unbalanced schedule does not give every team an equal opportunity against every other.

Then flip a coin. It's just seeding, after all.

[CDu]

I'd get rid of the ladder system, which most conferences seem to use in some form, and introduce some sort of overall strength-of-victory system. Say, overall won-lost record within the conference of teams defeated. (Everyone plays 16 games, so this can be reduced to simply adding the conference games won of teams you've defeated, doublecounting teams you've swept.)

This incorporates the "beating good teams helps" element of the ladder while also considering that the unbalanced schedule does not give every team an equal opportunity against every other.

Then flip a coin. It's just seeding, after all.

The potential problem with the "beating good teams" theroy is that if you beat better teams, you probably lost to weaker teams (in order to wind up with the same record). Obviously, with unbalanced schedules, this isn't always true, but I don't think you should completely devalue not losing to bad teams. So instead, I might suggest just taking the overall number of wins by all of your conference opponents as a tiebreaker. This would better capture the overall strength of the schedule faced by the tying teams. If you tie a team in the standings but played a tougher schedule, you win the tie.

[hurleyfor3]

Obviously, with unbalanced schedules, this isn't always true, but I don't think you should completely devalue not losing to bad teams.

This sentence contains so many negatives that my head exploded trying to parse it. Don't... devalue... bad... isn't true... *boom*


So instead, I might suggest just taking the overall number of wins by all of your conference opponents as a tiebreaker. This would better capture the overall strength of the schedule faced by the tying teams. If you tie a team in the standings but played a tougher schedule, you win the tie.

OK, that's simpler conceptually, but requires just as much if not a little more math as my suggestion. Works for me, though.

[MarkD83]

If Clemson wins and goes to 9-6 and GT goes to 7-8, does that mean Duke clinches a tie for the Regular Season Championship?

Go Duke!!!!!

(Sorry Duke still needs a win)

[Newton_14]

If Clemson wins and goes to 9-6 and GT goes to 7-8, does that mean Duke clinches a tie for the Regular Season Championship?

Go Duke!!!!!

(Sorry Duke still needs a win)

I think tonights Clemson win pretty much did it, providing of course we get a least 1 win this week.

[CDu]

If Clemson wins and goes to 9-6 and GT goes to 7-8, does that mean Duke clinches a tie for the Regular Season Championship?

Go Duke!!!!!

(Sorry Duke still needs a win)

Pretty sure that Clemson's win was irrelevant with regards to the Regular Season Championship. I don't believe the ACC has tiebreakers for that. You're just a co-regular season champ.

It does, I believe, have seeding implications. If we win one of our last two, we'll be the top seed in the ACC tournament, because GT can now not finish as high as Clemson, and we have a better record versus Clemson than Maryland does.

[CDu]

This sentence contains so many negatives that my head exploded trying to parse it. Don't... devalue... bad... isn't true... *boom*

I just meant that avoiding losses to bad teams should be considered as well. Sorry for the admittedly tortured English!


OK, that's simpler conceptually, but requires just as much if not a little more math as my suggestion. Works for me, though.

Yeah, they both require minimal math (just some addition).

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, 10 ACC games to play and there are some amazingly important positions that are yet to be determined. Just to repeat, there are no tiebreakers for th regular season title. We're only talking tournment seed here. Let's see:

(1) First place -- Obviously, Duke can clinch both the regular season title and the No. 1 seed by beating Maryland tonight. Even if the Devils lose, they can clinch the No. 1 seed by beating UNC Saturday or if Virginia upsets Maryland Saturday. Clemson's victory over Georgia Tech Tuesday night means that Duke wins every potential tiebreaker -- Maryland's only chance to be the No. 1 seed is to win the title outright. The Terps can't fall farther than the No. 2 seed.

(2) The four first-day ACC tourney byes: Duke and Maryland have two byes clinched -- Clemson, Va Tech, FSU and Wake are all vying for the other two. Georgia Tech is almost out -- it's possible that they could still get in a four place tie at 8-8, but it would take a bizarre combination of outcomes to do that. Clemson has the temporary edge. But FSU (Wake in Tallahassee; at Miami), Wake (at FSU, Clemson at home) and Va Tech (NC State at home; at Ga Tech) could all get in the mix. We could still have a 3-way tie at 10-6 or a four-way tie at 9-7. Stay tuned -- this one gets a lot clearer after tonight.

(3) The 8-9 battle -- any of the five bottom teams except Miami could still get into this game. Realistically, the winner of tonight's Virginia at Boston College game will be in the driver's seat at 6-9. The loser will be 5-10 along with UNC ... N.C. State could also get to 5-10, but they have to win at Va Tech. UNC loses the tiebreaker to either Virginia or BC if they tie at 5-11. UNC could get into the 8-9 game by upsetting Duke Saturday or if (1) Virginia beats BC tonight, (2) NC State loses to VPI tonight; then (3) NC State beats BC Saturday -- that leaves UNC-State-BC all at 5-11, but UNC would win the 3-way tiebreaker by virtue of its 2-wins over NC State (they would be 2-1 against the other two; BC would be 1-1; NC State would be 1-2). If BC beats Virginia, then Virginia gets into the three-team tie at 5-11, then Virginia wins the 3-way (3-0 vs. the other two; UNC 2-1; NC State 0-3). If Miami beats FSU to get to into the tiebreaker mix, UNC would win if it is Miami, UNC, State and BC; Virginia would win if it is Miami, State, UNC and Virginia.

Whew! Basically it comes down to (a) the winner of tonight's Virginia-BC is almost certainly in (not mathmatically, but realistically) and (2) UNC needs for NC State to get into the tiebreaker for ninth place and for Virginia to stay out of that tiebreaker -- they should pull very hard for the Cavs tonight at BC.

(4) The race for DFL (12th place) -- Sad to say that UNC's two-game winning streak has saved them from DFL and guaranteed that they will get to play in next year's ACC-Big Ten Challenge. They could still tie for the worst record in the ACC, but Miami can't do better than tie with the Heels and UNC has the tiebreaker over them. UNC also has the tiebreaker over NC State ... and NC State has the tiebreaker over Miami. There might be some bizarre set of tied combos that could keep Miami out of DFL, but I can't find it. They can clinch the outright worse record by losing to FSU.

It will be a lot more clear -- but still not settled in a lot of cases after tonight's four games. Back to you then.

[james]

The potential problem with the "beating good teams" theroy is that if you beat better teams, you probably lost to weaker teams (in order to wind up with the same record). Obviously, with unbalanced schedules, this isn't always true, but I don't think you should completely devalue not losing to bad teams. So instead, I might suggest just taking the overall number of wins by all of your conference opponents as a tiebreaker. This would better capture the overall strength of the schedule faced by the tying teams. If you tie a team in the standings but played a tougher schedule, you win the tie.

This is what the MVC does for a tiebreaker. They give a "power rating" for a win based on the final positions of each team, and whether the win was home or away. The team with the higher power rating wins the tiebreaker.

In a sense, a better method might be an intra-conference RPI. I've been calculating that, it takes into account a team's opponent's records, and the records of their opponents. For an unbalanced schedule, it is interesting.

[james]

There might be some bizarre set of tied combos that could keep Miami out of DFL, but I can't find it. They can clinch the outright worse record by losing to FSU.

Miami has the tiebreaker over Virginia, and in the case of a four way tie at 5-11, NC State is the big loser.

[Olympic Fan]

Miami has the tiebreaker over Virginia, and in the case of a four way tie at 5-11, NC State is the big loser.

Wow, you are right. If UNC, NC State, Miami and Virginia all tie at 5-11 ... then UNC and Virginia are 3-1; Miami is 1-3 and NC State is 1-4 ... I THINK in that situation, it would be No. 9 Virginia; No. 10 UNC (when the head-to-head among the group yields another tie, then you look at those two teams as if it were a two-way tie ... and Virginia would win by virtue of the head-to-head); No. 11 Miami and No. 12 NC State.

And, of course, Miami could beat FSU, while NC States loses its final two, in which case the Pack would actually have the worst record (4-12) with no tiebreakers needed.

PS I also think using a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker instead of the ladder would be a more fair way to do it. I'm not sure whether the current system, which penalizes you for losing only to the better teams, makes sense. But it would be easy to figure the record of a team's opponent (counting the home-and-homes twice) and reward the one who played the toughest opponents. Anyone who loses a tiebreaker to Virginia Tech this year -- when they played the weakest ACC schedule it is possible to play -- should be royally p****d off.

[hurleyfor3]

I just don't want unc to finish 9th. If we're the #1 this portends a Friday Duke/unc matchup in the tournament. There's nothing bad about beating unc three times, but the more times you play them the more likely they'd come to play like they're UNLV 1990, and it would make Friday afternoon ACC Tournament tickets more expensive.

Now if we lose to unc this weekend and end up a 2 seed... well, we deserve that fate.

[hurleyfor3]

Anyone who loses a tiebreaker to Virginia Tech this year -- when they played the weakest ACC schedule it is possible to play -- should be royally p****d off.

That's not anywhere near as ignominious as losing a tiebreaker to unc.

[Olympic Fan]

I just don't want unc to finish 9th. If we're the #1 this portends a Friday Duke/unc matchup in the tournament. There's nothing bad about beating unc three times, but the more times you play them the more likely they'd come to play like they're UNLV 1990, and it would make Friday afternoon ACC Tournament tickets more expensive.


I actually have exactly the opposite opinion. I'd LOVE to see UNC finish 9th (as long as it didn't involve beating Duke in the regular season finale). If that were to happen, I'd pull for the Heels Thursday for the chance to beat them a third time this year.

I know the "never pull for UNC" mantra, but to me, getting another chance to kick them when they are down trumps that. I'd LOVE the chance to rip the Heels for a third time in a season -- and the second time in six days!

[coot]

Ok, what stars need to line up with the sun for Duke to get the #1 seed? Anyone got it figured out yet?

[CDu]

Ok, what stars need to line up with the sun for Duke to get the #1 seed? Anyone got it figured out yet?

It's pretty simple. Either a Duke win or a Maryland loss gets us the #1 seed. We have all of the tiebreakers against Maryland.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow!

Six ACC games left and not a single spot on the seeding chart is set. One game left for everybody. Looking down the new standings.

(1) Duke and Maryland tied at 12-3. Duke wins every possible tiebreaker, so Maryland's only chance to claim the No. 1 seed is to win at Virginia while Duke loses at home to North Carolina. And, conversely, Duke's only chance to win the regular season title outright is to beat UNC while Virginia upsets the Terps.

Neither team can do worse than the No. 2 seed.

(2) Three teams tied at 9-6 (Clemson, FSU and Va Tech) with Wake at 8-7. The Deacs (Clemson at home) could finish in a four-way tie for third or could potentially be as low as No. 7 if they lose and 7-8 Georgia Tech (now No. 7) beats Va Tech at home and Duke ends up winning the regular season title.

But's tough to sort out the three third-place teams. Clemson (at Wake), FSU (at Miami) and VPI (at Georgia Tech) are all on the road this weekend. If they remained tied (without Wake in the mix), they will finish No. 3 Clemson, No. 4 VPI and No. 5 FSU. In the case of two-way ties, Clemson>FSU; FSU>VPI; VPI>Clemson.

(3) I tried every way I could think of to get UNC into the 8-9 game (so we could beat them for a third time), but the only scenario that involves UNC getting as high as ninth, means they beat Duke and Maryland beats Virginia -- which would put Duke in the other bracket.

UNC's biggest problem is that they are one-game behind No. 8 BC (which owns the tiebreaker over them) and tied with Virginia at No. 9 -- but Virginia also has the tiebreaker.

Now, BC is at NC State and there's a good chance to that NC State could win to get to 5-11 and tie UNC and Virginia (if they both lose) for ninth place. But Virginia still wins the 3-way tiebreaker. UNC then gets 10th and NC State 11th.

The big mess would be in Virginia and UNC lose, while NC State and Miami (FSU at home) win. That creates a four-way tie for ninth that breaks down No. 9 Virginia (4-1 vs. the other three); No. 10 UNC (3-1 against the other three); No. 11 Miami (1-3); No. 12 NC State (1-4).

The only way NC State escapes the last seed is to finish with a better record than Miami or to finish in a two-way tie with the 'Canes (THAT tiebreaker, State wins).

[james]

Wow!

Six ACC games left and not a single spot on the seeding chart is set. One game left for everybody. Looking down the new standings.

I bed to differ. Boston College has locked in the 8 seed. If they win, they are 7-9. The only possible other 7-9 is Georgia Tech, and they lose that tiebreaker. If they lose, they are 6-10. The only possible 6-10's are UNC and Virginia. BC swept both, so wins any tiebreakers there.

Interestingly, Clemson can finish 3rd, 4th or 6th, but they can't finish 5th. If
Wake beats Clemson, both are 9-7, and 5th-6th is 9-7. If Florida State wins and Virginia Tech wins, then it is a head-to-head, Wake is 5th and Clemson is 6th. If FSU wins and VPI loses, VPI, Wake, and Clemson have a three way tie. VPI is 2-0 head to head, Wake 1-1, Clemson 0-2. If FSU loses and VPI wins, the three way is Clemson 2-1 Wake 1-1 FSU 1-2. If FSU and VPI both lose, it is a four way: VPI 2-1 Clemson 2-2 FSU 2-2 Wake 1-2: Clemson and FSU resolved with Clemson 2-0 head to head with FSU.



(1) Duke and Maryland tied at 12-3. Duke wins every possible tiebreaker, so Maryland's only chance to claim the No. 1 seed is to win at Virginia while Duke loses at home to North Carolina. And, conversely, Duke's only chance to win the regular season title outright is to beat UNC while Virginia upsets the Terps.

Neither team can do worse than the No. 2 seed.

(2) Three teams tied at 9-6 (Clemson, FSU and Va Tech) with Wake at 8-7. The Deacs (Clemson at home) could finish in a four-way tie for third or could potentially be as low as No. 7 if they lose and 7-8 Georgia Tech (now No. 7) beats Va Tech at home and Duke ends up winning the regular season title.

But's tough to sort out the three third-place teams. Clemson (at Wake), FSU (at Miami) and VPI (at Georgia Tech) are all on the road this weekend. If they remained tied (without Wake in the mix), they will finish No. 3 Clemson, No. 4 VPI and No. 5 FSU. In the case of two-way ties, Clemson>FSU; FSU>VPI; VPI>Clemson.

(3) I tried every way I could think of to get UNC into the 8-9 game (so we could beat them for a third time), but the only scenario that involves UNC getting as high as ninth, means they beat Duke and Maryland beats Virginia -- which would put Duke in the other bracket.

UNC's biggest problem is that they are one-game behind No. 8 BC (which owns the tiebreaker over them) and tied with Virginia at No. 9 -- but Virginia also has the tiebreaker.

Now, BC is at NC State and there's a good chance to that NC State could win to get to 5-11 and tie UNC and Virginia (if they both lose) for ninth place. But Virginia still wins the 3-way tiebreaker. UNC then gets 10th and NC State 11th.

The big mess would be in Virginia and UNC lose, while NC State and Miami (FSU at home) win. That creates a four-way tie for ninth that breaks down No. 9 Virginia (4-1 vs. the other three); No. 10 UNC (3-1 against the other three); No. 11 Miami (1-3); No. 12 NC State (1-4).

The only way NC State escapes the last seed is to finish with a better record than Miami or to finish in a two-way tie with the 'Canes (THAT tiebreaker, State wins).

[Olympic Fan]

Well, Saturday's first two games helped shape up the bottom of the bracket a little bit, but it's now certain that we won't know the crucial 3-5 spots until after Sunday's Clemson at Wake game at 5 p.m.

FSU's win at Miami keeps them alive for the Thursday bye, but they still lose tiebreakers with VPI and Clemson, so they need for one of them to lose.

Miami's loss does guarantee the 'Canes the No. 12 seed in the tourney. It also locks NC State into the No. 11 seed, no matter what they do Sunday.

As James corrected me earlier, BC was already locked into the No. 8 slot.

If Duke wins tonight, Virginia gets No. 9 and UNC is at No. 10. If the Tar Heels win, they get No. 9 and Virginia will be No. 10.

Georgia Tech is fighting right now to get to 8-8. But Maryland's win means that the Jackets are locked into the No. 7 seed.

If they end up losing to the Hokies, they are locked into seventh place. Even if they beat VPI, the best they can do is tie Wake for sixth (if Wake loses to Clemson tomorrow).

Since Wake and Tech split two games, you'd have to do the ladder to break the tie. Wake (1-1 vs. Maryland and Duke) would still edge Georgia Tech (1-2 vs. Maryland and Duke) if Duke wins tonight. If UNC upsets Duke, then Wake still wins the tiebreaker with Ga Tech due to their win vs. Maryland).

To sum up: as of 5:15 pm, we know:

No. 7 Georgia Tech
No. 8 Boston College

No. 11 NC State
No. 12 Miami

I'll get back to you when we have a Ga Tech-VPI winner (which won't matter to Ga Tech's seed, but could have a big impact for the Hokies).

[CDu]

Well, Saturday's first two games helped shape up the bottom of the bracket a little bit, but it's now certain that we won't know the crucial 3-5 spots until after Sunday's Clemson at Wake game at 5 p.m.

FSU's win at Miami keeps them alive for the Thursday bye, but they still lose tiebreakers with VPI and Clemson, so they need for one of them to lose.

Miami's loss does guarantee the 'Canes the No. 12 seed in the tourney. It also locks NC State into the No. 11 seed, no matter what they do Sunday.

As James corrected me earlier, BC was already locked into the No. 8 slot.

If Duke wins tonight, Virginia gets No. 9 and UNC is at No. 10. If the Tar Heels win, they get No. 9 and Virginia will be No. 10.

Georgia Tech is fighting right now to get to 8-8. But Maryland's win means that the Jackets are locked into the No. 7 seed.

If they end up losing to the Hokies, they are locked into seventh place. Even if they beat VPI, the best they can do is tie Wake for sixth (if Wake loses to Clemson tomorrow).

Since Wake and Tech split two games, you'd have to do the ladder to break the tie. Wake (1-1 vs. Maryland and Duke) would still edge Georgia Tech (1-2 vs. Maryland and Duke) if Duke wins tonight. If UNC upsets Duke, then Wake still wins the tiebreaker with Ga Tech due to their win vs. Maryland).

To sum up: as of 5:15 pm, we know:

No. 7 Georgia Tech
No. 8 Boston College

No. 11 NC State
No. 12 Miami

I'll get back to you when we have a Ga Tech-VPI winner (which won't matter to Ga Tech's seed, but could have a big impact for the Hokies).

For obvious reasons, we need to win tonight. It'd mean a sweep of UNC. It would give us the regular season title. And it would give us a first round matchup against UVa or BC, which is much nicer than GT.

But on top of that, winning tonight would have the added bonus of increasing the degree of difficulty for UNC in the tourney from insurmountable to really insurmountable. To win, they'd almost certainly have to beat four NCAA tourney teams in four days.

If we lose, then UNC gets BC and then Maryland. Not an easy path, but I think it's certainly easier than going through the tourney as the #10 seed.

[Olympic Fan]

... after blowing most of a 17-point second half lead. Still, a win is a win and this one guarantees the Hokies a first round bye in the ACC Tournament.

The other bye goes to Clemson if they win at Wake ... to FSU if Wake wins Sunday in Winston-Salem.

I just noticed that whatever happens tonight, UNC will have to beat Maryland Friday in the tournament to make a deep run. If the Heels win tonight, then Maryland is the No. 1 seed and UNC is No. 9. If Duke wins, then Maryland is the No. 2 seed and UNC is No. 10.

This, no matter what happens tonight, if UNC wins Thursday in the tournament, they have to face Maryland on Friday!

[RoyalBlue08]

... after blowing most of a 17-point second half lead. Still, a win is a win and this one guarantees the Hokies a first round bye in the ACC Tournament.

The other bye goes to Clemson if they win at Wake ... to FSU if Wake wins Sunday in Winston-Salem.

I just noticed that whatever happens tonight, UNC will have to beat Maryland Friday in the tournament to make a deep run. If the Heels win tonight, then Maryland is the No. 1 seed and UNC is No. 9. If Duke wins, then Maryland is the No. 2 seed and UNC is No. 10.

This, no matter what happens tonight, if UNC wins Thursday in the tournament, they have to face Maryland on Friday!

That is a rather interesting quirk. I gotta say I'm glad we don't have to worry about a third UNC game this year. They are probably the most dangerous of the 7-10 seeded teams and it is always such an emotional game, that I wouldn't want to have to play a game like that for the first of potentially three games in three days.

[Bob Green]

I gotta say I'm glad we don't have to worry about a third UNC game this year.

Carolina hasn't lost in the ACCT yet. I caution you to remember one of the basic tenets of being a sports fan: respect your opponent.

[gumbomoop]

Carolina hasn't lost in the ACCT yet. I caution you to remember one of the basic tenets of being a sports fan: respect your opponent.

A fairminded point and useful reminder.

It is fair as well to note that UNC has not been respectable in '10, principally because they have exhibited no self-respect. None.

I was among the very last to give up on the Heels, and I was proven wrong repeatedly. So, yes, I'll concede that if the Heels heal quickly, play passionately, and correct, near-miraculously, their several striking weaknesses, they could win some games in ACCT.

But, they have not thus far earned anyone's respect, including that of their own fans, or, as it turns out, their coach. A shocking season for the Heels, one to forget.

[Olympic Fan]

Sorry, I didn't get to post last night after I got home from the game. But just to update the seedings of the tournament. Going into today's final two ACC games, we know eight of the 12 seedings -- four will be determined by the Clemson at Wake game at 5 p.m. (the State-BC game at 2 p.m. is meaningless for seeding purposes).

What we know:
1. Duke
2. Maryland

7. Georgia Tech
8. Boston College
9. Virginia
10. UNC
11. N.C. State
12. Miami (which misses the ACC/Big 10 Challenge next year)

What we don't know is the seeding for:

10-6 Virginia Tech
10-6 FSU
9-6 Clemson
8-7 Wke Forest

Now, Virginia Tech is guaranteed a bye. They'll be the No. 3 seed if Wake beats Clemson (they win the head-to-head with FSU) and the No. 4 seed if Clemson beats Wake (they finish second in a three-way tiebreaker with Clemson and FSU).

Clemson is in the very odd position of being either the No. 3 seed if they beat Wake or the No. 6 seed if they lose to Wake (this is the only game between the two, so the win would give Wake the tiebreaker)

FSU is the No. 4 seed -- and wins that all-important bye -- if Wake beats Clemson, but if Clemson wins, the 'Noles finish third in the three-way tiebreaker and wind up in fifth place.

Wake gets fifth place if it beats Clemson ... sixth place if the Deacs lose to the Tigers.

The interesting thing from Duke's point of view is that the Devils will almost certainly face Boston College Friday (Virginia is reeling, especially after losing Landesberg). Saturday's semifinal opponent is still up for grabs. If Wake wins today, then FSU-Wake are in the 4-5 game that should produce our semifinal opponent ... if Clemson wins today, then VPI-FSU are in the 4-5 game.

No matter what happens today, Clemson is in the other bracket, along with Maryland and UNC.

PS Bob, I understand about respect, but I'd kill for another shot at UNC this season. You don't get too many chances to kick them when they are down -- but they are definitely down and I would love another kick.

Alas, I'll be surprised if they survive Georgia Tech on Thursday (and no way they get NIT at 16-16). I'd be stunned if they upset the Jackets and then upset Maryland in Friday's quarterfinals.

[gumbomoop]

Now, Virginia Tech is guaranteed a bye. They'll be the No. 3 seed if Wake beats Clemson (they win the head-to-head with FSU) and the No. 4 seed if Clemson beats Wake (they finish second in a three-way tiebreaker with Clemson and FSU).today, Clemson is in the other bracket, along with Maryland and UNC.

OF, you've done yeoman's work on all this, but I thought FSU has tiebreaker with VT, as FSU won their only match.

Help.

[CDu]

OF, you've done yeoman's work on all this, but I thought FSU has tiebreaker with VT, as FSU won their only match.

Help.

Yes, FSU owns a head-to-head tiebreaker with VT, but hat wouldn't prevent VT from getting a bye (they'd be the 4th seed). If there's a 3-way tie, then FSU has the worst record of the three head-to-head (as they lost twice to Clemson). So VT would be seeded ahead of FSU in the event of a three-way tie. So either way, they get a bye. Basically, VT is the #4 seed in either scenario today.

[Olympic Fan]

OF, you've done yeoman's work on all this, but I thought FSU has tiebreaker with VT, as FSU won their only match.

Help.

My mistake ... you are right. If Clemson loses to Wake, FSU gets third and VPI gets fourth.

Hmmm, I am right that if Clemson wins and creates a three-way tie for third, then Clemson is third, VPI 4th and FSU 5th.

So I guess VPI is locked into the No. 4 seed, no matter what happens today.

Clemson is 3rd (with a win) or 6th (with a loss). FSU is third (with a Wake win) or 5th (with a Clemson win).

Thanks for the correction.

[gumbomoop]

Yes, FSU owns a head-to-head tiebreaker with VT, but hat wouldn't prevent VT from getting a bye (they'd be the 4th seed). If there's a 3-way tie, then FSU has the worst record of the three head-to-head (as they lost twice to Clemson). So VT would be seeded ahead of FSU in the event of a three-way tie. So either way, they get a bye. Basically, VT is the #4 seed in either scenario today.

CDu, you and OF have my head spinning.

To clarify: my questioning OF concerned only the reference to VT having tiebreaker v. FSU, in event Wake beats Clemson. My understanding is that if Wake wins, that surely means only FSU and VT tie for 3d at 10-6, and since FSU gets tiebreaker if they tie only with VT, in that specific scenario, FSU is 3, VT 4.

If Clemson wins,....... one of you 2 will explain it to me soon enough. My head spins. Still giddy, of course, from last night.

[CDu]

CDu, you and OF have my head spinning.

To clarify: my questioning OF concerned only the reference to VT having tiebreaker v. FSU, in event Wake beats Clemson. My understanding is that if Wake wins, that surely means only FSU and VT tie for 3d at 10-6, and since FSU gets tiebreaker if they tie only with VT, in that specific scenario, FSU is 3, VT 4.

If Clemson wins,....... one of you 2 will explain it to me soon enough. My head spins. Still giddy, of course, from last night.

You are/were correct - I was just adding to that. FSU wins the tiebreaker with VT if Clemson loses today (that's what I implied). If Clemson wins today, FSU loses the 3-way tiebreaker and finishes 5th. Either way, VT finishes 4th. My only additional point was to clarify that VT gets a bye either way.

[CDu]

I'm trying to decide for whom to cheer today. I don't know if I'd prefer a potential Clemson/VT semifinal (if we beat BC/UVa of course) or an FSU/VT semifinal. I honestly can't decide. Part of me thinks Clemson is the better matchup because we handle the press well and have a big size advantage, whereas FSU is tougher in the half-court defense. But the other part of me can't shake the memory of last year's debacle at Clemson.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm trying to decide for whom to cheer today. I don't know if I'd prefer a potential Clemson/VT semifinal (if we beat BC/UVa of course) or an FSU/VT semifinal. I honestly can't decide. Part of me thinks Clemson is the better matchup because we handle the press well and have a big size advantage, whereas FSU is tougher in the half-court defense. But the other part of me can't shake the memory of last year's debacle at Clemson.

Don't mean to make your head spin any more, but no matter what happens today, Clemson can't be a potential semifinal opponent for Duke -- they are either No. 3 or No. 6 -- and both are in the other bracket.

If you want a rooting interest in the Clemson at Wake game look at it this way. If Clemson wins, the 4-5 seeds (which ought to produce Duke's semifinal foe) will be No. 4 Va Tech and No. 5 FSU. If Wake wins today, it will be No. 4 Va Tech and No. 5 Wake.

Va Tech is a possibility either way. You just need to decide whether you want to see FSU or Wake as a potential Saturday afternoon opponent.

If you'd prefer FSU, pull for Clemson today. If you'd prefer Wake, pull for Wake.

Frankly, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. Wake is currently in a tailspin, but if they beat Clemson today, then mop the floor with Miami Thursday, then beat VPI Friday -- what they'd have to do to reach the semifinals against Duke -- then I'd say they were hot again. If it's FSU, they've won their last two and five of the last six, plus they'd also have to beat Miami and VPI to reach the semifinals.

So either way, we'd be getting a pretty tough foe.

[MChambers]

I like Purnell. I also think Clemson is a tough matchup for Maryland.

I'm not too worried about who we play, although I'd like to avoid a team that is physical to the point of causing injury (e.g., GT and Wake).

[pfrduke]

Don't mean to make your head spin any more, but no matter what happens today, Clemson can't be a potential semifinal opponent for Duke -- they are either No. 3 or No. 6 -- and both are in the other bracket.

If you want a rooting interest in the Clemson at Wake game look at it this way. If Clemson wins, the 4-5 seeds (which ought to produce Duke's semifinal foe) will be No. 4 Va Tech and No. 5 FSU. If Wake wins today, it will be No. 4 Va Tech and No. 5 Wake.

Va Tech is a possibility either way. You just need to decide whether you want to see FSU or Wake as a potential Saturday afternoon opponent.

If you'd prefer FSU, pull for Clemson today. If you'd prefer Wake, pull for Wake.

Frankly, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. Wake is currently in a tailspin, but if they beat Clemson today, then mop the floor with Miami Thursday, then beat VPI Friday -- what they'd have to do to reach the semifinals against Duke -- then I'd say they were hot again. If it's FSU, they've won their last two and five of the last six, plus they'd also have to beat Miami and VPI to reach the semifinals.

So either way, we'd be getting a pretty tough foe.

I'd prefer playing Wake to playing FSU. Actually, I'd prefer playing VT to playing FSU, as I think VT would beat Wake, but not FSU.

[CDu]

Don't mean to make your head spin any more, but no matter what happens today, Clemson can't be a potential semifinal opponent for Duke -- they are either No. 3 or No. 6 -- and both are in the other bracket.


You're right - I knew that. I don't know what I was thinking (probably not thinking - just discussing too quickly). Insert Wake instead of Clemson. Same dilemma. Wake has more chance to get hot offensively than FSU. But FSU is better defensively. And Wake can certainly lay an egg offensively. Basically, their two UNC games show the potential good and bad from Wake.

[Bob Green]

PS Bob, I understand about respect, but I'd kill for another shot at UNC this season. You don't get too many chances to kick them when they are down -- but they are definitely down and I would love another kick.

Agreed. I would love to play UNC again. My interpretation of RoyalBlue08's original post was that there was no way we would play Carolina again. I agree with you the Heels stand little chance of surviving GT and Maryland, however, it is possible. That was all I was saying.

[MChambers]

Agreed. I would love to play UNC again. My interpretation of RoyalBlue08's original post was that there was no way we would play Carolina again. I agree with you the Heels stand little chance of surviving GT and Maryland, however, it is possible. That was all I was saying.

The Heels would also have to survive a third game before playing us again. Not gonna happen.

[CDu]

So it's official:

Our path is:
Friday: BC/UVa
Saturday (if applicable): winner of VT/(winner of Wake/Miami)
Sunday (if applicable): winner of the other half of the bracket

That's probably the best draw we could have hoped for. Let's take advantage of it.

[MChambers]

So it's official:

Our path is:
Friday: BC/UVa
Saturday (if applicable): winner of VT/(winner of Wake/Miami)
Sunday (if applicable): winner of the other half of the bracket

That's probably the best draw we could have hoped for. Let's take advantage of it.

I like having Maryland, Clemson, and FSU in the other half of the bracket. I'd like to avoid Wake, because of the physical nature of the game they play, but I suspect they won't get by VT. It will be close, however. If we do play Wake, it will be their third game in three days, which has to be an advantage for Duke.

Of course, Duke needs to take care of the BC/UVA winner first.

[CDu]

I like having Maryland, Clemson, and FSU in the other half of the bracket. I'd like to avoid Wake, because of the physical nature of the game they play, but I suspect they won't get by VT. It will be close, however. If we do play Wake, it will be their third game in three days, which has to be an advantage for Duke.

Of course, Duke needs to take care of the BC/UVA winner first.

Yeah, if we get Wake, they'll be on very tired legs. I may actually prefer that to a less-tired VT team (who also plays pretty physically). That's of course assuming that a Collins-less Miami doesn't shock the world and beat both Wake and VT.

But having to potentially face only one of Maryland, FSU, Clemson, and GT is nice.

I will say that BC could be tough. They gave us fits for the first half in Cameron and the second half in BC. And they'd be familiar with the court, having already played a game on Thursday. Of course, that game at BC could just have been a function of fatigue setting in, having played a tough game just two days before.

[HokieEngineer]

Yeah, if we get Wake, they'll be on very tired legs. I may actually prefer that to a less-tired VT team (who also plays pretty physically). That's of course assuming that a Collins-less Miami doesn't shock the world and beat both Wake and VT.

But having to potentially face only one of Maryland, FSU, Clemson, and GT is nice.

I will say that BC could be tough. They gave us fits for the first half in Cameron and the second half in BC. And they'd be familiar with the court, having already played a game on Thursday. Of course, that game at BC could just have been a function of fatigue setting in, having played a tough game just two days before.

I think this sets up as a great ACC tournament. Duke and Maryland have clearly had the best seasons in the league, but nothing looks "easy" in the tournament. (I would not look forward to a game against BC right now.)

[VAGentleman05]

I think this sets up as a great ACC tournament. Duke and Maryland have clearly had the best seasons in the league, but nothing looks "easy" in the tournament. (I would not look forward to a game against BC right now.)

I agree. I'm very much looking forward to being in Gboro next weekend. MUCH better venue and tourney field than last year, IMO.

[pfrduke]

Yeah, if we get Wake, they'll be on very tired legs. I may actually prefer that to a less-tired VT team (who also plays pretty physically). That's of course assuming that a Collins-less Miami doesn't shock the world and beat both Wake and VT.

But having to potentially face only one of Maryland, FSU, Clemson, and GT is nice.

I will say that BC could be tough. They gave us fits for the first half in Cameron and the second half in BC. And they'd be familiar with the court, having already played a game on Thursday. Of course, that game at BC could just have been a function of fatigue setting in, having played a tough game just two days before.

Depending on how you calculate it, all four of the 5 best teams in the conference not named Duke (Maryland, Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech in that order) are in the bottom half of the bracket. That's an extremely favorable draw.

BC always plays us tough. But I'm not yet ready to give up on the Landesberg-less Cavaliers. They showed a lot of fight against the Terps, and BC didn't show much against State today.

[james]

Since I have the program, I decided to run the tiebreakers on the ACC
results using the different tiebreaker rules for different conferences.

Every conference uses head to head as the first tiebreaker. For the
ACC this year, that resolved every tiebreaker except Duke and Maryland.
These teams were resolved using the ladder. Both teams swept Florida
State and Virginia Tech (tied for third.) Since Duke swept Clemson
and Wake Forest (tied for fifth) and Maryland lost to Clemson and
Wake Forest, Duke won the tiebreaker at that step of the ladder.

The Big East has the same rules as the ACC. The Big Ten and Pac Ten
have the same ladder approach, but add another tiebreaker in case
the ladder does not resolve. Since the ladder resolved, the Big Ten
and Pac Ten rules would have the same result.

The Atlantic Ten and Conference USA have a big difference: While the
BCS conferences resolve ties by percentage, (ie, 1-0 is the same as
2-0), these conferences resolve the ties by "Games behind." Since
Maryland played Florida State twice, Maryland was 3-0 against the
tied teams in third, and Duke was 2-0: enough to give the edge to
Maryland in those tiebreakers.

The Missouri Valley Conference does not use a ladder. Instead, they
calculate a power rating based on where the game was won and where the
teams finished. Extrapolating the power values to a 12 team league,
Duke's power rating would be 162, and Maryland would be 156. In
this case, the results ended up the same.

The SEC rules split the conference into two divisions. Since there
aren't two proper divisions in ACC basketball, I split the conference
based on football divisions. The first tiebreaker is head to head,
followed by division record. Both ties were resolved, 1-0, head to
head. In a true SEC schedule, both pairs of teams would have played
twice.

Similarly, a Big Twelve tiebreaker was not possible to calculate, as
it assumes the schedule in the program.

All three efforts (A10, MVC, SEC) are on ACCSeeds:
http://www/accseeds.info/2010/

[james]

My program also looked at strength of schedule.

I remove a team's results from the opponent's record, and then sum up the opponents' records (counting teams played twice twice) to get a plus/minus number to show schedule strength. This year, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest tied at -26 for the weakest schedule in the ACC. This is also the weakest schedule in ACC history. Duke's schedule was +6, and Maryland's was +10.
Hardest schedule was Clemson's, at +18. Hardest ever was Duke's in 2005 and 2009, both were +20.

I also calculated an intra-conference RPI, which allegedly takes into account the opponent's strength of schedule. Clemson again looks good and Wake looks weak.

[airowe]

All three efforts (A10, MVC, SEC) are on ACCSeeds:
http://www/accseeds.info/2010/

Fixed link: http://www.accseeds.info/2010/