mepanchin
05-13-2007, 04:04 PM
I recently read a book referenced on Pomeroy's site called Basketball on Paper by a guy named Dean Oliver. Mr. Oliver is a very bright engineer who develops astute statistical models of estimating the offensive and defensive performance of individual players. I'm currently in the process of applying his formulas to Duke teams going back to 1987 (when goduke.com's stats site stops listing detailed individual stats), but I wanted to suggest that others take up the cause with me and, for this coming season, record the relevant defensive statistics (since the relevant offensive ones are easy to come by).
The relevant statistics are:
- Forced field goal misses (FM) - recorded as each time a particular player's man misses a shot. Blocks are added to these to create total forced field goal misses. When an unguarded man misses a shot, it is a team FM. When a help defender comes over to help cause an offensive player to miss, then both the main defender and the help defender get half a FM.
- Forced turnovers (FTO) - When a defensive player forces an offensive player to commit a turnover. This is separated into Steals and Forced turnovers and combine into Total Forced Turnovers.
- Forced free throw misses (FFTA) - when a defender fouls an offensive player who then misses free throws.
- Allowed field goals (DFGM) - When a defender's man scores on him.
- Allowed free throws (DFTM) - When a defender fouls a man who then makes free throws.
Add fouls, blocks, steals and defensive rebounds and you have a fairly robust defensive statsheet that can be used to (pretty accurately) derive a good rating and stop percentage for individual players.
So, for this upcoming season, I am going to do my best to record these stats for each Duke game, but more people should join me so we make sure we are keeping the most accurate stats we can. This will really give us a good picture of how well our players are defending without just using our perception which can betray us.
Anyone interested?
The relevant statistics are:
- Forced field goal misses (FM) - recorded as each time a particular player's man misses a shot. Blocks are added to these to create total forced field goal misses. When an unguarded man misses a shot, it is a team FM. When a help defender comes over to help cause an offensive player to miss, then both the main defender and the help defender get half a FM.
- Forced turnovers (FTO) - When a defensive player forces an offensive player to commit a turnover. This is separated into Steals and Forced turnovers and combine into Total Forced Turnovers.
- Forced free throw misses (FFTA) - when a defender fouls an offensive player who then misses free throws.
- Allowed field goals (DFGM) - When a defender's man scores on him.
- Allowed free throws (DFTM) - When a defender fouls a man who then makes free throws.
Add fouls, blocks, steals and defensive rebounds and you have a fairly robust defensive statsheet that can be used to (pretty accurately) derive a good rating and stop percentage for individual players.
So, for this upcoming season, I am going to do my best to record these stats for each Duke game, but more people should join me so we make sure we are keeping the most accurate stats we can. This will really give us a good picture of how well our players are defending without just using our perception which can betray us.
Anyone interested?