Charting Duke vs. Virginia Tech

[Jumbo]

Well, it doesn't take the absolute ridiculous lineup stats below to realize that the bench just didn't bring it against Virginia Tech. And for the second straight game, there was a huge difference with Lance Thomas on and off the court, despite his quiet statistics. His defensive contributions just can't be measured. Everything else pretty much makes sense if you watched the game.

Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Lance Thomas 53-35 (+18)
Brian Zoubek 52-36 (+16)
Nolan Smith 67-53 (+14)
Jon Scheyer 67-55 (+12)
Kyle Singler 67-55 (+12)
Miles Plumlee 14-13 (+1)
Mason Plumlee 9-13 (-4)
Ryan Kelly 0-4 (-4)
Andre Dawkins 6-11 (-5)

Per 40 Minutes
Lance Thomas +24
Brian Zoubek +22.1
Nolan Smith +14.4
Jon Scheyer +12
Kyle Singler +12
Miles Plumlee +5
Mason Plumlee -26.7
Andre Dawkins -33.3
Ryan Kelly -80

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek (x4) 47-29 (+18)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x2) 5-0 (+5)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Zoubek 3-1 (+2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek 2-0 (+2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Miles 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles 4-5 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Mason 1-2 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (x2) 5-8 (-3)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Zoubek 0-4 (-4)

[loran16]

Well, it doesn't take the absolute ridiculous lineup stats below to realize that the bench just didn't bring it against Virginia Tech. And for the second straight game, there was a huge difference with Lance Thomas on and off the court, despite his quiet statistics. His defensive contributions just can't be measured. Everything else pretty much makes sense if you watched the game.

Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Lance Thomas 53-35 (+18)
Brian Zoubek 52-36 (+16)
Nolan Smith 67-53 (+14)
Jon Scheyer 67-55 (+12)
Kyle Singler 67-55 (+12)
Miles Plumlee 14-13 (+1)
Mason Plumlee 9-13 (-4)
Ryan Kelly 0-4 (-4)
Andre Dawkins 6-11 (-5)

Per 40 Minutes
Lance Thomas +24
Brian Zoubek +22.1
Nolan Smith +14.4
Jon Scheyer +12
Kyle Singler +12
Miles Plumlee +5
Mason Plumlee -26.7
Andre Dawkins -33.3
Ryan Kelly -80

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek (x4) 47-29 (+18)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x2) 5-0 (+5)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Zoubek 3-1 (+2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek 2-0 (+2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Miles 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles 4-5 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Mason 1-2 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (x2) 5-8 (-3)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Zoubek 0-4 (-4)

I won't disagree with your comments about last game, but well, Thomas got the benefit of playing a HUGE amount of time with the Big 4 (Triple S + Zoubek), during which he got +18 and he got +18 overall. Huge Minutes and a +/- equivalent to the +/- of one lineup doesn't tell us anything.

(+Mason, Miles, and Kelly got not enough minutes to show us much).

So I sort of think this time around that the +/- of Lance being the top is kind of just luck, rather than evidence of his skill. There's a reason the top 5 +/-s in this game are close...it's cuz they played near the whole game.

[Jumbo]

I won't disagree with your comments about last game, but well, Thomas got the benefit of playing a HUGE amount of time with the Big 4 (Triple S + Zoubek), during which he got +18 and he got +18 overall. Huge Minutes and a +/- equivalent to the +/- of one lineup doesn't tell us anything.

(+Mason, Miles, and Kelly got not enough minutes to show us much).

So I sort of think this time around that the +/- of Lance being the top is kind of just luck, rather than evidence of his skill. There's a reason the top 5 +/-s in this game are close...it's cuz they played near the whole game.

First of all, it's a bit much to decide Duke now has a Big 4. And it's worth noting that Duke had a positive plus/minus with Thomas/Miles as the 4/5 too. And none of that explains why Duke got outscored by 6 points when Thomas was on the bench. It's not as if Scheyer, Singler or Smith was out of the game at that time. The job Thomas did as a trail big to help contain Delaney and his effective switching on defense was absolutely critical.

[loran16]

First of all, it's a bit much to decide Duke now has a Big 4. And it's worth noting that Duke had a positive plus/minus with Thomas/Miles as the 4/5 too. And none of that explains why Duke got outscored by 6 points when Thomas was on the bench. It's not as if Scheyer, Singler or Smith was out of the game at that time. The job Thomas did as a trail big to help contain Delaney and his effective switching on defense was absolutely critical.

Like i said in the other thread, i believe lance played better than the other guys at the 4 today. But I'm not convinced that the bulk of his +/- greatness doesn't come due to having big minutes with the big 3 + Zoubek (who i optimistically hope will become the big 4). And the +/- doesn't suggest otherwise (yes without Zoo he had a + +/- in one lineup for a grand total of 5 points (2 shots). The sample size issues there are...wonderful, though it'd be easier if we had the minutes played of each lineup)

[ice-9]

Like i said in the other thread, i believe lance played better than the other guys at the 4 today. But I'm not convinced that the bulk of his +/- greatness doesn't come due to having big minutes with the big 3 + Zoubek (who i optimistically hope will become the big 4). And the +/- doesn't suggest otherwise (yes without Zoo he had a + +/- in one lineup for a grand total of 5 points (2 shots). The sample size issues there are...wonderful, though it'd be easier if we had the minutes played of each lineup)

Some numbers to ponder...

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, Singler: +16.

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, and Singler and Thomas: +20

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, and Singler without Thomas? -4

You ask whether Thomas benefited because he was playing with Scheyer, Smith and Singler. But shouldn't the better question be whether Scheyer, Smith and Singler benefited because of Thomas?

This is a team sport where the whole is greater than the sum of the pieces. One of those pieces is Thomas. His play was critical in this game.

[miramar]

I don't want to pile on anybody, but there is one quirk to the numbers.

If a player is in for a few minutes early in the half and gets two (or three) unnecessary fouls, he will be yanked pretty quickly. While those fouls may not lead to free throws at that point, it does mean that the other team will get to the bonus earlier and may end up with an extra four (or six) points in the half.

Those free throws are not reflected in the player's +/-, but he did in fact cost the team some points.

I guess the only solution is to stay around, learn to play the game, and become as efficient as Zoubs and Lance have towards the end of their careers.

[loran16]

Some numbers to ponder...

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, Singler: +16.

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, and Singler and Thomas: +20

All line-ups featuring Scheyer, Smith, and Singler without Thomas? -4

You ask whether Thomas benefited because he was playing with Scheyer, Smith and Singler. But shouldn't the better question be whether Scheyer, Smith and Singler benefited because of Thomas?

This is a team sport where the whole is greater than the sum of the pieces. One of those pieces is Thomas. His play was critical in this game.

As I've said, this analysis looks great...except it's a sample size issue. Lance was in the game for 30 Minutes...and 10 minutes for the others really isn't enough to judge a +/- by (to understand, you can easily remember in games this year when an opposing team will start making every shot...despite great Defense. So if a player is randomly in during that time, his +/- will get hurt, despite it not being his fault).

So once again it doesn't really say anything.

[ice-9]

I'm not sure I understand your logic. 10 minutes is plenty to judge on in a game of 40 minutes -- it's one quarter of data to examine what the team is like without Lance in the lineup for that particular game.

I think the fact that Coach K played Lance for 30 minutes despite a lot of depth at his position is also another strong indicator that Lance is doing something right on the court.

You say the numbers don't say anything -- but I wonder if what you meant is that they don't agree with what you think and therefore must be invalid.

Sorry if that sounded harsh, but I want to give Lance his due.