Realistically, where do we end up the year?

[Lord Ash]

Howdy all!

Well, the first Carolina game is, to me, a sign that March is on its way!

So, while we still have some games left to go, and then the ACC Tourney, I did want to ask... with things as they currently are, what do you think our Duke team will realistically achieve this year in the NCAA tourney? I would love to hear thoughts a little bit before the end of the year, to get a feel for how people believe this team will grow and develop with the time that is left, and how far we will go.

[duke4life32182]

Always dream big.

[Lord Ash]

You are missing the point. This isn't a "dream" poll; hence, the repeated use of words like "realistic." This is a "As a basketball fan and someone who has followed Duke closely this year, how do you think we will REALISTICALLY finish?"

Two totally different things.

[duke4life32182]

Chill out grouch. Realistically I see a lot of inconsistent basketball being played by all teams in NCAA. Who do you see as National Champs? I REALISTICALLY say that Duke will win the National Championship, why do I say this, b/c Duke can get all three players playing at the same level (Scheyer, Singler and Smith) and some others stepping up, I feel we are better than anybody in the country. LT injury will force some of our bench players to play more minutes that will become valuable over the course of the next month+. Duke still hasn't hit its stride yet, like they are saving something. A lot better than in the past when we peaked in the first two months. We have just as much a realistic chance as any other team. :D Guess what though, I'm gonna keep dreaming big, but I also think we will win the national championship. That is my opinnion, you can't make it for me.

[InSpades]

I'm disappointed in all but 1 of you who voted thus far.

[CDu]

I think it's really impossible to guess, because I think matchups are going to play a huge role. I really think that one of the big keys to our tournament success will be getting a draw that doesn't put us up against a bunch of teams that play the 4-out, 1-in style of offense. I think that type of team gives our two-big lineup a lot of trouble.

[duke4life32182]

Looks like I'm not the only one thinking we are going all the way.

[duke4life32182]

Thank you inspades.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm pretty confident we'll go farther in the tournament than unc will.

[wilson]

I'm pretty confident we'll go farther in the tournament than unc will.How long before Roy tells us he doesn't care about that tournament either?

[OldSchool]

Still lots of games left.

Bigger and consistent contributions from Mason and Andre will show up as the season winds down and will be the extra oomph the team needs to match up with the Kansases, Villanovas, Kentuckys and Syracuses of the world, and with the three-headed veteran scoring attack, Duke cuts down the nets.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I say round of 8. I could also seeing us exiting (again, sigh) in the 16, or making it to the FF. It's hard to tell which team will show up on game night...but I do like our recent improvements. From a team that couldn't win on the road to getting it done 3 of our last 4 outings is solid. The uncertainty is what makes this group exciting and fun..albeit frustrating as well. But hey...I'll take it. (I know a few folks in chapel hell who WISH they could)

[rhcpflea99]

I always believe Duke has a chance to win NCAA title. No doubt in my mind if Duke plays to it's potential Duke would win the title. With that said, can Duke beat a good team on a bad day? Good teams find a way to win on a bad day.

[uncwdevil]

I think right now we are between an Elite 8 team and a Sweet 16 team.

I voted Elite 8 since I think we are due to outperform our expectations this year, if only slightly.

[ajgoodfella7]

Realistically I think a trip to the elite 8 is fathomable. I think for Duke to go farther will depend on 2 main things:

1. Obviously certain matchups will be better then others and I would think a team that has supreme athletes could give us trouble.

2. This team will only go as far as Scheyer, Smith and Singler carry us. To realistically have a shot to get to the final 4 we will need some great performances from those 3 in particular.

[Richard Berg]

Voted FF. But CDu has it right -- it could easily swing two rounds in either direction depending on matchups. By the same token, even if we get a bad draw, Kyle might go 8/10 from 3pt again (or their best scorer might have a JJ-vs-LSU night).

[DevilHorns]

PTI today:

Wilbon gives us 20% chance to make the 4.

Kornheiser gives us 18% chance to make the 4.

I think thats more generous that I thought they'd be...

[BD80]

I'd say a better than 50% chance that our season will end with a loss.

But I'm an optimist!

[rthomas]

This is sort of a stupid thing to speculate about. I was at Duke for 87-95 and for the most part no one ever thought we would make final four. Yet history says different. Year after year. Would I pick that we'll make FF this year? no. So what? it's the run that makes it. Short little tournaments. We can do this. I always have faith. I learned during the time I was there. If we congeal, become a real team, make a run. It can happen and has happened for us - when we shouldn't, but did. It takes the Jello.

lol. That's what makes it fun.

[devildownunder]

I think right now we are between an Elite 8 team and a Sweet 16 team.

I voted Elite 8 since I think we are due to outperform our expectations this year, if only slightly.


I think this is correct. Lots of things could lead to overreach or (let's hope not) underperformance but looking at things objectively, this is about where we are. Things can change.

[hq2]

This is sort of a stupid thing to speculate about. I was at Duke for 87-95 and for the most part no one ever thought we would make final four. Yet history says different. Year after year. Would I pick that we'll make FF this year? no. So what? it's the run that makes it. Short little tournaments. We can do this. I always have faith. I learned during the time I was there. If we congeal, become a real team, make a run. It can happen and has happened for us - when we shouldn't, but did. It takes the Jello.

Yes, that was the peak era. During that time, Duke made the final Four four times when they should have (89,91,92,94) and 2 times when they shouldn't have (88 and 90). The last two years are instructive in that they show that matchups and/or luck and clutch play can make a difference. The '88 team beat Temple in a game where John Cheney let Mark Macon keep shooting (6 for 27) with the national defensive player of the year (Billy King) on him, even though he had two frontcourt players in Tim Perry and Ramon Rivas who could score effectively. The '90 team won on Laettner's first shot, a game which could have gone either way. The point is that matchups and luck can make a huge difference. With a little of both, this team could do it, but it won't if it has to play a Georgetown type (big frontcourt, quick/deep backcourt) team.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I was almost surprised that so many others voted with me! And everyone who has read this board for a few years knows how I voted! :D:D:D:D

[CameronBornAndBred]

I was at Duke for 87-95 and for the most part no one ever thought we would make final four.
In his post game comments last night, K compared this team to one of his later 80's teams. I thought that was interesting.

[coot]

I voted round of 8, but I think with improvements on the inside offensively, we can get to final four and see what happens. Note: I also vote that UNC will go out in the ACC tournament round one, and that'll be the end of season.

[RoyalBlue08]

One of my favorite quotes often attributed to Bill Parcells is "You are what your record says you are." I couldn't agree more. Based on Duke's current body of work, we are somewhere around the 7-9th best team in the country, as have been accurately ranked as such by the polls. So I voted for Elite 8, because that is what the 8th best team in the country would do on average. But we all know that the top 8 teams never make the elite 8. And the four best teams almost never make the final four. And the best team doesn't always win. So expectations are fun to talk about I guess, but for a one and done tournament with such a big luck factor, what your team would accomplish on average isn't really that important honestly. I prefer to think about what is possible. It is possible we lose in the second round (I highly doubt we can lose in the first round unless we drop enough games between now and then to lower our seed significantly). I think we are easily a good enough team to make the second weekend, but who knows, maybe we have a bad game or run into a tough matchup. It's also possible we win the whole thing. I also don't think we are the best team in the country, but who knows, maybe it falls our way and the other top teams are upset or we pull off an upset or two. This is what makes the tournament so exciting. So many fan bases have a reason to be optimistic. Almost anything can happen. I would just caution people to avoid trashing our players or coaches or whomever if we happen not to meet your predetermined expectations.

[tele]

RPI says 4 right now, so realistically that would be final 4 for Duke. I think this team can still get a lot better. Teams that get hot and make a run are the ones that wind up winning it. That isn't an easy thing to do when you play in the ACC and have to grind out wins during the regular season. But if you make it through the regular season healthy, and your team comes together at the right time, then you can have as realistic a chance to win it all as anyone. I think Duke can win it all, and I'm looking forward to watching to see if they do. I'd like to see more of that small lineup too as the season progresses(s,s,s,d,mp2).

[sagegrouse]

I was almost surprised that so many others voted with me! And everyone who has read this board for a few years knows how I voted!

Ozzie:

Leadership is an under-rated virtue. :D:D

I look forward to my first trip to Indianapolis and some serious partying Monday night.

I like the fact that our team seems to be getting tougher and tougher as the season goes along.

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

I think the most realistic guess is Final Eight for this team, but historical patterns suggest this is a Final Four team, and it has that sort of feel for me, so that's how I voted.

Ultimately, however, CDu is right that it all depends on matchups. If we face a team that plays the spread offense (4-out, 1-in) and executes well, our odds get a lot longer.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, I know this means nothing and yes, I understand one year does not affect the next, but I still think this is kinda cool:

2006-2007: 1st round
2007-2008: 2nd round
2008-2009: Sweet 16
2009-2010: ???, but see a pattern?

I think we have huge potential to get past the Sweet 16 and even the Elite Eight, but, as smart folk, you gotta look at the pattern...

[sivartrenrag]

I voted for National Champs. The players need it, the coach needs it, the fans need it. It will happen. I feel something special about this particular group of players and I think they'll get it done.

Not only that, but I don't think there is a supremely dominant team out there right now. I feel like we have the ability to beat Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova, etc on any given night.

[sweetchiba51]

I pick us every year to win it all, and I'm not about to change this! Go Duke!!

[Lord Ash]

Hm... I am surprised that some people have SUCH high expectations. I chose the round of 16... while I think we are good, I have not seen as much development from the big guys as I had hoped, and I am afraid that, come tourney time, we may hit a team that is playing very well and is able to force The Big Three into a sub-par night... if two of them are off, I think at tourney time we won't win:(

And I want to be clear; I am not "grumpy." I just do not intend this thread to be a cheerleader thread, which there are plenty of. As a former Blue Devil myself, and having had my first career be in sports, I am perfectly capable of viewing even my favorite team both from the Tent #1 perspective AS WELL AS from less emotional, oft-more-realistic view as well. I am not looking at it like a coach, whose goal should ALWAYS be a title, but rather as someone who has seen a lot of basketball and who is making a reasonable guess at, all other things even, we will end up.

Think of it this way; if you were in a basketball pool, and you would make ten million dollars if you won, where would you pick us to finish the year?

[dairedevil]

had a column yesterday in the AJC where he predicted Duke to exit early - possibly first round. He also thinks GA Tech is a final four team.

This is the same guy who said he was stupid when he picked GT over Duke in Cameron...see a pattern? He really, really doesn't like Duke, but then he's a Kentucky graduate, so what do you expect?

My feelings? This year is wide open, and Duke has as good of a chance as anyone to go far in the tourney. As most say, it will depend on matchups, that the big three do what they are capable of for each game, and that the others can be effective in their roles - defense, additional scoring, creating scoring opportunities for the 3. It could be very, very fun to watch, and it could also be another heartbreaking finish. Of course, I'd much rather have a heartbreaking loss in the championship game rather than round 1 since I would be able to put a perspective that the team overachieved expectations rather than that they once again disappointed.

[Lord Ash]

Just thought I would bump this back up again, because it is fun to look back and see where expectations were, and where we are now.



And is it too late to change my vote? Mod?

:)

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I also find it fun reading these old threads about where we would be right now, in the tourny.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm pretty confident we'll go farther in the tournament than unc will.

Well, I was right about that.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I've never been happier to be wrong.