How Will Duke Be Better Next Year?

[NYC Duke Fan]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

[Matches]

It really comes down to whether Singler and Smith stick around. If they do, we have an excellent shot of being very very good in 2011.

[Duvall]

Any thoughts?

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

[RoyalBlue08]

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

I agree. I think it is time for UNC to talk about next year and for us to get excited for some March Madness.

[Classof06]

I think the idea that UNC will suddenly become dramatically better next year is a joke. They lose Thompson and Ginyard, and will most likely lose Ed Davis as well.

UNC might not be at the bottom of the ACC next year, but to assume they'll be back to contending for Final 4s is wrong. The only thing that might save UNC next year is if Harrison Barnes is just all-world. Even if that is the case, this team will still have sizable flaws.

[jimsumner]

" I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke."

Elliott Williams started down the stretch last season. Kyle Singler was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2008 and Smith and King contributed off the bench. Scheyer scored in double figures in '07 and the other three freshmen played. Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists in '06 and McRoberts also started.

So, I'm confused as to which "past few years" you are referring.

And yes, the freshmen-never-play-at-Duke myth is one of my pet peeves. And it is a myth.

[dukelifer]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

Well your assumption is that the "experts" know what they are saying. The "experts" picked UNC to be #4 in the country pre-season because they thought they had a strong core of players who played significant minutes last year and an excellent recruiting class with multiple McDonald All Americans. The point is we do not know- nor do the experts how teams will gel and how well Frosh will adjust. We do know that Duke will be different next year- and the new players bring some different skill sets. It is K's job to make that all work as a team.

[MChambers]

Elliott Williams started down the stretch last season. Kyle Singler was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2008 and Smith and King contributed off the bench. Scheyer scored in double figures in '07 and the other three freshmen played. Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists in '06 and McRoberts also started.

So, I'm confused as to which "past few years" you are referring.

And yes, the freshmen-never-play-at-Duke myth is one of my pet peeves. And it is a myth.

And go back further and tell me about Brand, Battier, Williams, and so on. It is a total myth.

[CDu]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

[MChambers]

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

I'd add more extended pressure defense, as we likely will be a lot deeper on the perimeter.

[DUKIECB]

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

I'm all for supporting this years team with unrivaled enthusiasm but this notion that we are not even allowed to discuss next year is in my opinion stupid. The forum is for Duke basketball, it doesn't say Duke basketball 2009-2010 season.

Obviously there are many variables that no one has any of the answers to. Do Singler or Smith leave early, what will Kyrie's impact as a freshman be and how will returning players improve from this year to next?

I think if we can catch a break or two (Singler and Smith stay, Irving has a decent impact and other players show moderate improvement) we have the chance to be really good.

If no one leaves early the roster would be:

Senior

Kyle Singler
Nolan Smith

Junior

Miles Plumlee

Sophomore

Mason Plumlee
Andre Dawkins
Ryan Kelly
Seth Curry

Freshman

Kyrie Irving
Joshua Hairston
Tyler Thornton

I like the fact that we will be a very balanced team with the capability to score from every position. This is something we have lacked over the last few years. With the more experienced Plumlees down low, the plethora of 2/3 players and a super athletic point guard who can penetrate and score or dish to those wings, it could be the most balanced Duke team since 2001. Will they be as good as that team? I doubt it but they could be close.

To answer the original posters' question, I think next years team could be good enough to win a championship and possibly one of the favorites to do so.

[DeBlueDevil]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?
I agree how good we will be next year does depend largely on Singler and Smith sticking around (which I believe they will). I do agree that Irving may not be as good as Scheyer next year however I do think we will be a little better with him at the point. Now before everyone jumps on me and says I'm crazy just hear me out. If you take a look at this team this year and even the game last night. Could you imagine how much better we would be and even how much easier it would have been to win that game last night if we would have had someone like Kyrie to drive the lane and create much easier shots for Nolan, Kyle, and even some set up dunks for Mason? Not that we don't get shots now but I just believe that this is what Kyrie and Ty Thornton will bring to the table.

They won't be anywhere near as experienced and heady as Jon (which not many in the country are) but they will be able to drive past defenders and kick to an open, Seth, Nolan, Andre, Kyle, and Kelly and set up alley-opp dunks for the Plumlees and Hairston. With good D and consistent offense...next years team will be considerably better....but as you said before that largely depends on having Nolan and Kyle.

As for the heels...I agree with a previous post that once they lose Thompson and Ginyard and perhaps Ed Davis (who I think is more likely to leave then Singler) they will have big shoes to fill. I think the Plumlees are definitely better than the Wear twins and Zeller just hasn't proven to me he is going to be as good as they say he will be (a somewhat next Psycho T)...i just don't see it. Barnes may be pretty good as well as the other recruits but I like our lineup against theirs all day especially with the experience of Nolan and Kyle of they return.

[Kedsy]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?


First of all, I agree that we should be focusing on this year not next. However, I also believe it's not an outrageous thing to do both simultaneously.

Regarding UNC, I suppose it's possible that Barnes goes Carmelo on us, but I doubt it. They'll be better than this year but I'll be very surprised if they're a top 5 (or even top 10) team by the end of the year. The key will be how quickly their freshmen can contribute and how much improvement do they get from Strickland and Henson. No matter how you slice it, they'll be an incredibly young team.

When it comes to Duke, I would warn against linear thinking. Just because a large part of our personnel is the same it doesn't mean the team is the same. Take this year compared to last year, for example. After 2009, we lost our supposed best player (G) as well as our most athletic defender (Elliot), our most versatile defender (Dave McClure), and our senior leader (Greg). We replaced them with three freshmen who don't play all that much. But we appear to be a much better team -- how is that possible? First of all, at the college level players improved dramatically from year to year. With the possible exception of Kyle, is there even one player on the team who could be called the same player as last year? I'd say no, and IMO this phenomenon will repeat next year for all our returning players.

The second reason is the mixture of personnel and style of play. This year with Lance, Miles, and Z improved enough to be big contributors along with Mason and Ryan adding their skills to the mix, we are a MUCH bigger and better rebounding team than we were last year. We're playing a different offense and a different defense than last year, and since both the offensive and defensive schemes are designed around the team's strengths, it minimizes the losses of players like G and Elliot who might not have fit so well into this year's style of play.

Next year, Kyrie may not be "better" than Jon, but he's a completely different type of player. Adding Seth doesn't just add another shooter but adds another type of player we don't have on this year's roster. Next year, with Kyrie leading the show, we'll be a very fast, up-and-down team. The Plumlees will be scoring all sorts of fast break dunks that they don't have too much of an opportunity to cash in on this year. Kyrie and Nolan will slash up opposing defenses, leaving Seth and Andre wide open for myriad threes; Ryan will (hopefully) be strong enough to play inside and difficult for a big guy to guard on the perimeter. We will be one of the top 5 offenses in the country, and that's without even considering whether Kyle returns or whether Josh and Tyler (and/or whoever else we get, like Carrick Felix) can contribute a whole lot. It'll just be a whole different team, at least on offense. And it'll be different on defense, too. Assuming Mason and Miles don't commit so many stupid fouls, and Ryan gets strong enough to defend inside, between them and Josh H we should have good, athletic interior defense with multiple shot-blocking presences. Our perimeter defense, between Kyrie, Seth, Nolan, and a presumably improved Andre will be the quickest we've seen in Durham at least since 2004 and probably since 2002. Again this is not even including Kyle or Tyler or a possible athletic wing like Felix, and again it will be a completely different look and feel than this year's defense.

We will have a very different team next year, despite the similarities in personnel. We will have a very good team. Now, back to this year.

Finally, it's "Thornton," not "Thorton." IIRC, this is not the first time you've made that particular typo.

[devilboomer]

Hard to say whether Irving will be an upgrade/downgrade from Scheyer.

Scheyer is remarkably consistent, a great leader, and makes few mistakes. To be blunt, without him Duke basketball would have been a much darker chapter over the last few years. He's a stud. But when we play very athletic and physical teams, Scheyer often bears a large part of the blame for a loss. Puts up silly shots, flails around in the paint anticipating fouls, gets trapped too easily, etc...

Irving as a freshman will be inconsistent and undoubtedly make mistakes (every freshman does, even Jay Williams, Battier, Singler, etc...). But what we do get is an athletic playmaker who will shine when challenged by more physical and athletic teams. We might have more losses overall with Irving, but I'd wager that we'll get further in the tournament.

Either way, I would take Scheyer or Irving in a heartbeat. I'm just sad that they won't get to play together.

Next year's Duke >> this year's Duke.

Kyrie
Smith
Singler
Plumlee
Plumlee

It's going to be awesome.

[Baxter the Lab]

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.





Irving might not match Scheyer's stats, but he will make everyone around him that much better. Jon has not necessarily excelled at creating easy buckets for others. Kyrie is going to do just that.

Hairston is going to be better than anyone realizes.

Regardless of Singler's decision, next year's team will absolutely be better than this year's.

[loldevilz]

I really doubt that Miles Plumlee will start next season. K seems to think that Ryan Kelly will be a great player so I expect him in the line up.

Irving is supposed to be the next Jay Williams and I expect his development will determine how good next years team is.

Singler and Smith have to stay.

I think Curry will be a big factor. Many say that he is the best player in practice.

I expect the starters to be
Irving
Smith
Singler
Kelly
Ma. Plumlee

[OldSchool]

Kedsy, good analysis of next year's team.

They could be outstanding offensively.

A big variable will be how much work Andre and Ryan do in the off-season to get stronger and become better defenders.

If Andre can get strong enough and savvy enough to play good defense against the ACC's small forwards, then a three-guard offense led by Kyrie at point, Nolan at the two and Andre at the three with Seth getting starter's equivalent minutes could be amazing.

I don't think one can compare Jon and Kyrie. Jon imposes his will on the game by setting the pace and diligently working the offense to find a crack in the defense or exploit a mistake by the defense here and there. Kyrie I expect will be more explosive and we will probably run a lot more. With Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Kyle and Mason on the floor, we will go back to the strong over-play defensively and look to get lots of run-outs in transition. Could be one of Duke's highest scoring offenses.

Can Kyrie play D? Anyone know?

[oldnavy]

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

Of course you are correct. No way to predict the future, BUT I would expect that we are going to be really good next year with the addition of Curry, Irving, Hairston and Thorton to an already very good returning nucleus. Replacing the seniors will be hard, especially Scheyer, but the pieces will be there.

[Olympic Fan]

You guys have done a good job detailing why/how Duke will be better next year. I agree -- provided Singler returns for his senior year. You just don't realize the impact Irving -- an elite level point guard -- is going to have.

But nobody's looked at the other side of the equation -- how much better will UNC really be?

They're adding a GREAT pair of wings in Barnes and Bullock. With Graves back and Strickland and McDonald a year older, they'll be strong at a position they are weak this season.

They won't have the kind of jet point guard that Roy's best teams have (like Felton and Lawson or Jacque Vaughn at Kansas). Drew is an okay player who will probably make less mistakes as a junior ... and he'll have more options with Barnes and Bullock on the wing. Not sure Marshall is a real upgrade -- he's a polished, excellent passer, but physically, he's pretty average. They'll be deeper at the point with Drew/Marshall but I think the most improvement will be Drew's added experience.

But the real question mark is up front. Thompson will be gone and so will Davis, who is a lock NBA early entry. There's even a reasonable chance to John Henson will make the jump too (Chad Forde still has him a projected top 15 pick in the NBA draft -- that was as of 10 days ago).

That could leave Tyler Zeller and the Wear brothers as UNC's entire post presence. I think Zeller is a nice player, but no bull in the paint. The Wear brothers are complementary players. Even if Henson returns, they'll be much weaker in the post than this year.

Overall? They're better -- much better on the wing, a little better at point and weaker in the post. Are they good enough to make a quantum leap? That depends on (1) How good Barnes is as a freshman; (2) Whether Henson returns and realizes his potential.

Talked to a national writer last night who is very plugged into the prep recruiting scene. Said he doesn't think much of Marshall (he said if Roy had it to do again, he wouldn't have given Marshall the early offer -- the kid has had a terrible senior year) ... and loves Irving (called him the second coming of Jason Williams). Suggested that Irving has more impact that Barnes next year.

If that happens, Duke is still better than UNC next year -- whether Kyle returns or not.

Carolina should be better ... but then, they should be better this year than they are.

PS It's kind of funny, but last fall when the Barnes recruitment came down to the wire, the perception was that Duke had to get him to reverse UNC's dominance of the series. Now, it's obvious that Barnes is UNC's one hope of regaining parity with Duke in the rivalry!

[Maxwell1977]

Once again NYC Duke Fan has something negative to say about the Duke BB team. It's especially odd when it comes on the day after a major victor. But then he/she almost always posts something negative about Duke BB. Quite a fan!

[jimrowe0]

Can Kyrie play D? Anyone know?

Kyrie has been noted for his defense effort. I think that with the summer and building into the beginning of the season he will be a good defender. It really just depends on how he can adjust to the pace of college basketball compared to high school.

[CDu]

Of course you are correct. No way to predict the future, BUT I would expect that we are going to be really good next year with the addition of Curry, Irving, Hairston and Thorton to an already very good returning nucleus. Replacing the seniors will be hard, especially Scheyer, but the pieces will be there.

I agree. I think/hope that Singler and Smith will stay, which gives us something to build around. I don't think that Irving or Curry individually will make up for Scheyer, but I think/hope that the combination of those two and the improvement of Smith, Dawkins, and Singler will make our 1-3 spots very strong again next year. And I think/hope the development of the Plumlees, Kelly, and Singler (and hopefully the ability of Hairston) will offset the loss of Thomas and Zoubek. Whether we're better or not will depend on the degree of these things, obviously.

[licc85]

I think the idea that UNC will suddenly become dramatically better next year is a joke.

I agree with this. Even if Barnes is incredible, which is very possible, who is going to help him? Henson and McDonald are both busts as far as I'm concerned. (Thank goodness McDonald took their offer instead of ours.) Ed Davis is a surefure top 5 pick, and he would be an idiot to not leave. That could possibly leave the offense in the hands of 3 freshmen: barnes, marshall, and bullock. I could see them being good in 2 years, but don't count on them beating us next year.

[jimrowe0]

I agree. I think/hope that Singler and Smith will stay, which gives us something to build around. I don't think that Irving or Curry individually will make up for Scheyer, but I think/hope that the combination of those two and the improvement of Smith, Dawkins, and Singler will make our 1-3 spots very strong again next year. And I think/hope the development of the Plumlees, Kelly, and Singler (and hopefully the ability of Hairston) will offset the loss of Thomas and Zoubek. Whether we're better or not will depend on the degree of these things, obviously.


I agree that Singler and Smith are both likely staying. I love Scheyer, but I think Curry is going to light it up next year and Irving will provide some dribble penetration that we are lacking from Scheyer. Also, Mason and Ryan's development will be key as well through the end of this year into next years team. Whether the Singler and Smith stay and the freshman's development between now and next year are the keys. Irving is going to be great, but how will he adjust to college ball is a question mark as well.

[Jumbo]

I have a thought: Who cares?
Thanks, I'll be here all week. Tip the bartender. ;)

[Scorp4me]

Was it Bilas I caught recently discussing this very issue? During a recent game or after a game or half time of a game, I forget. But whoever it was asserted that he saw Carolina to be worse next year and Duke to be better. Whether you believe that or not...this is definitely a strange thread.

[ScreechTDX1847]

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless response to this thread. As someone said before, speculating is part of the fun of ebing a fan. Thanks for your input.

[whereinthehellami]

With no NBA departures Duke-unc could look like:

Duke
Irving 6-1 FR
Smith 6-2 SR
Singler 6-8 SR
Ma Plumlee 6-10 SO
Mi Plumlee 6-10 JR

Curry 6-0 SO
Dawkins 6-4 SO
Kelly 6-10 SO

Unc
Drew 6-2 SO
Bullock 6-6 FR
Barnes 6-6 FR
Davis 6-10 JR
Zeller 7-0 JR

Strickland 6-3 SO
Henson 6-10 SO
Graves 6-6 SR
Wear 1 6-10 SO
Marshall 6-3 FR

While the above doesn't count departures, there definately will be some. I wouldn't count out some UNC transfers either. I also only included guys that could start in the above lists. I think both teams will play alot different than they do this year.

Duke will have a PG who is quick, athletic, and excels in transition. There should be alot of easy hoops next year. Coach K can also go big/small depending on the lineup. There will be alot of options.

UNC will be a team in transition. Two of its best players will be freshman. Bullock and Barnes can both hit outside shots and get to the rim at will. Drew will loook alot better with the influx of athletic wings. While i wish Barnes to be a bust, the kid is about as sure a thing as there is. He has a mixed tape out their now that is just sick. He is effortless and explosive while either shooting 3s or the dunk shot. Chemistry could be a big issue for UNC next year. And we now how well Roy deals with that. Back up the buses, Roy goin to work!

[Richard Berg]

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.
Good post. I think you missed an important downside though:
5. we can't replace the interior presence of Zoubek + Thomas. We've already had a couple games this year where the loss of an important rebound, block, intimidated/altered shot, or drawn charge would have put our victory in doubt.

We all know that the Plumlees will add dynamism & energy to the frontcourt. We all hope that they (especially Mason) will help fill the scoring gap left by Scheyer. But it's completely unclear what our defense & OR% will look like once rotations + fouls are factored in. (Zoubek + Thomas = 41mpg to make up) Big men -- even very talented big men -- frequently don't figure those things out for years.

For better or worse, the next few weeks (sans Lance) will tell us a lot...

[Kedsy]

With no NBA departures Duke-unc could look like:

Duke
Irving 6-1 FR
Smith 6-2 SR
Singler 6-8 SR
Ma Plumlee 6-10 SO
Mi Plumlee 6-10 JR

Curry 6-0 SO
Dawkins 6-4 SO
Kelly 6-10 SO

Duke will also have Hairston, Thornton, and possibly either Felix or Zeigler. I would bet at least one or two of those guys will see decent minutes next year for us.

[CDu]

I agree with this. Even if Barnes is incredible, which is very possible, who is going to help him? Henson and McDonald are both busts as far as I'm concerned. (Thank goodness McDonald took their offer instead of ours.) Ed Davis is a surefure top 5 pick, and he would be an idiot to not leave. That could possibly leave the offense in the hands of 3 freshmen: barnes, marshall, and bullock. I could see them being good in 2 years, but don't count on them beating us next year.

I completely disagree with statements like this. I refuse to write off players after only one season of college ball. Have Henson and McDonald performed as well as people expected them to perform? Obviously not. Are their college careers over? No.

If we can expect our guys to improve between now and then, I think it's only fair to expect the same from UNC's guys. Maybe they develop into the players everyone thought they'd be next year (and maybe not). But concluding that they're busts is REALLY jumping the gun.

UNC has the chance to be much better next year as well. It all depends on who stays, what the freshmen bring, and how much the returning players develop.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Plumlees. I think they will be a huge factor (pun intended) and will have improved a lot. They are both starting to get it, and with a point guard who can effectively drive and dish, that will be huge. You can't replace Scheyer's leadership and scoring touch with a freshman (but Nolan can easily fill that leadership position, I believe), but Scheyer isn't as "true" a point guard - he's a guard.

I like this team a lot, but I think next year will be a great team - great starters, depth at basically every single position, athleticism, leadership (Nolan and Singler next year, come on!)... wow! Of course, this is all based on Nolan and Singler staying, which I think will certainly happen.

Last point: to reiterate what Screech said, why do people get so upset when we talk about the future of Duke basketball? A forum is a platform for fans to talk about the past, present, and future of a sport. And what I find really funny is that people actually take the time to write about NOT posting about Duke's future. Sad...

[ACCBBallFan]

Good post. I think you missed an important downside though:
5. we can't replace the interior presence of Zoubek + Thomas. We've already had a couple games this year where the loss of an important rebound, block, intimidated/altered shot, or drawn charge would have put our victory in doubt.

We all know that the Plumlees will add dynamism & energy to the frontcourt. We all hope that they (especially Mason) will help fill the scoring gap left by Scheyer. But it's completely unclear what our defense & OR% will look like once rotations + fouls are factored in. (Zoubek + Thomas = 41mpg to make up) Big men -- even very talented big men -- frequently don't figure those things out for years.

For better or worse, the next few weeks (sans Lance) will tell us a lot...
You make a good point that the Plumlees will have to forego some of their propensity to go for highlight reel blocks to stay out of foul trouble. Until Lance was injured Duke could afford to play very aggressively on defense as Zoubs and Lance have a different set of equally effective plus/minus skills than the brothers Plumleee, with a high potential Kelly in reserve.

Next year Kelly gets more PT and Hairston is the high potential freshman apprentice.

Plan B would be to do more 3 guard lineups with Singler at the 4 if necessary (more likely two WfFs though on offense and just defend the PF more) this year and next. With Irving, Thornton and Curry eligible, and only Scheyer leaving, Duke will no longer be so thin on guards.

Thorton and Nolan paired at guard spots on occasion can crank up the pressure defense, and Irving, Dawkins, Kelly and Curry more than make up for loss of Scheyer long ball, all assuming Singler stays, and have both Kyrie and Nolan to penetrate.

With so much quality guard depth, the players will be fresher and can go harder without having to conserve energy to play 38 or more minutes.

Last time I looked at NBADraft.net Kyle was not in next year's draft and #32 his senior year, while Davis was 7 or #8.

[Starter]

There's no question in my mind they'll be better next season. I'm about as big a Scheyer fan as you'll find, but I've been to a few of Irving's games and I can't wait to see him with the keys to the offense next season. (Yes, he can play defense) You can't just compare Scheyer to Irving as a player, you have to take the backcourt on the whole. Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins is what we have now, and Dawkins barely plays. Next year, Smith-Irving-Curry-Dawkins will be far more balanced. Presumably, Dawkins will improve as a player and get past some of the issues, both on-court and off, that have limited him this season.

Besides, you can't just consider one player against the player that replaces him when judging the value of teams. Would you have thought Syracuse would have been better this year after losing a backcourt of Flynn and Devendorf? No, but they added Wesley Johnson and became a more well-rounded team. (Plus, they still have J.J. Redick's cousin)

I honestly feel as if Curry is often overlooked or downplayed by Duke fans, but I'm extremely excited about him. Recall his 20 ppg average as a freshman, including two big-time games against ACC opponents, and then consider his brother's recent 36-10-13 game and the fact that Steph is averaging around 20 ppg in 2010. I'm probably the most eager to watch him next season of any of our players; in terms of creating his own shot, he's unique when considering the type of talent we've had recently.

Singler probably isn't going anywhere, though a big tournament could conceivably change that. But I anticipate we'll see him back next year. And they'll be loaded.

[flyingdutchdevil]

There's no question in my mind they'll be better next season. I'm about as big a Scheyer fan as you'll find, but I've been to a few of Irving's games and I can't wait to see him with the keys to the offense next season. (Yes, he can play defense) You can't just compare Scheyer to Irving as a player, you have to take the backcourt on the whole. Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins is what we have now, and Dawkins barely plays. Next year, Smith-Irving-Curry-Dawkins will be far more balanced. Presumably, Dawkins will improve as a player and get past some of the issues, both on-court and off, that have limited him this season.

Besides, you can't just consider one player against the player that replaces him when judging the value of teams. Would you have thought Syracuse would have been better this year after losing a backcourt of Flynn and Devendorf? No, but they added Wesley Johnson and became a more well-rounded team. (Plus, they still have J.J. Redick's cousin)

I honestly feel as if Curry is often overlooked or downplayed by Duke fans, but I'm extremely excited about him. Recall his 20 ppg average as a freshman, including two big-time games against ACC opponents, and then consider his brother's recent 36-10-13 game and the fact that Steph is averaging around 20 ppg in 2010. I'm probably the most eager to watch him next season of any of our players; in terms of creating his own shot, he's unique when considering the type of talent we've had recently.

Singler probably isn't going anywhere, though a big tournament could conceivably change that. But I anticipate we'll see him back next year. And they'll be loaded.

I basically agree with everything here. Scheyer isn't replaceable - that's correct. But a better Nolan (which is a very scary thought, mind you), a dribble-drive-dish PG, a combo guard who can score a lot of points, a 3-point specialist who will improve greatly in the off-season, and a backup defensive point guard is a scary combination.

Due to our depth, we can't really play that many types of offense that often (we have and can play Singler at the 4, but it doesn't happen that much. Also, doing that means that no one is in foul trouble). Next year, we can play an enormous variety - Kyle at the 3, Kyle at the 4, never a Kyle at the 2 (which is a good thing, IMO), Kyle at the 5, small guard line-up, big guard line-up, lots of big men line-up - it'll be like those action figures where you can interchange the limbs and equipment to make change it's persona (okay, bad example, but you get my point).

Loving this year, and really looking forward to next year.

[1Devil]

I love Nolan Smith...one of my favorite players. But people suggesting he might not return next year must be crazy. Where's he going to go?

I'm sure Singler will be back too after a season which has been good but maybe not NBA great. If Singler's not back, we're really going to have an issue guarding some forwards next year.

[whereinthehellami]

Duke will also have Hairston, Thornton, and possibly either Felix or Zeigler. I would bet at least one or two of those guys will see decent minutes next year for us.

While those guys will get minutes I only included ones that will get major minutes/start on a regular basis. Didn't include McDonald and a Wear on the other side either.


I completely disagree with statements like this. I refuse to write off players after only one season of college ball. Have Henson and McDonald performed as well as people expected them to perform? Obviously not. Are their college careers over? No.

I agree with you on Henson. I have seen some sparks from him this year. I could see him putting it together next year. Especially if he gets closer to the basket and uses that extreme lenght. He could be incredible on the baseline and backside.

McDonald looks like the odd man out to me. I'm not sure who he takes time from next year. I think he gets pushed further out of the picture and am not sure he will be okay with that. This would be the off-season to transfer. I see him as a guy Roy took to keep away from Coach K.


I basically agree with everything here. Scheyer isn't replaceable - that's correct. But a better Nolan (which is a very scary thought, mind you), a dribble-drive-dish PG, a combo guard who can score a lot of points, a 3-point specialist who will improve greatly in the off-season, and a backup defensive point guard is a scary combination.

There isn't always alot of improvement of players from their junior to senior years. Some guys have reached their potential and maximized all that they can. They are what they are. Not saying that would be the case with Nolan and Kyle but I wouldn't go counting any chickens either.

[jimsumner]

"There isn't always alot of improvement of players from their junior to senior years."

Correct. Not always. Fortunately for Duke, Jon Scheyer missed the memo. Note also the junior-senior jumps made by Kevin Strickland, Alaa Abdelnaby, Phil Henderson, Tony Lang, Chris Collins, Roshown McLeod, Chris Carrawell, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, DeMarcus Nelson and others.

So, we shouldn't discount the possibility either.

[flyingdutchdevil]

"There isn't always alot of improvement of players from their junior to senior years."

Correct. Not always. Fortunately for Duke, Jon Scheyer missed the memo. Note also the junior-senior jumps made by Kevin Strickland, Alaa Abdelnaby, Phil Henderson, Tony Lang, Chris Collins, Roshown McLeod, Chris Carrawell, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, DeMarcus Nelson and others.

So, we shouldn't discount the possibility either.

I think you forgot one of the most noticeable - Redick. While Redick sophomore-junior was a jump in numbers, junior-senior was a jump from really good scorer to absolutely college baller.

[DevilHorns]

I think an overlooked feature of next team will be Josh Hairston. With Thomas and Zoubs gone, the plumlees will get the nod, with kelly helping out on the 4 when needed, and singler (if he stays) sliding down to the 4 at times. Hairston has the possibility to really shine as a back up, and log valuable minutes. Im not sure how college ready Hairston is but he may have to shape up fast. We also may land an athletic wing that can slide to the 4 when needed, but who knows.

[Neals384]

With no NBA departures Duke-unc could look like:


Unc
Drew 6-2 SO
Bullock 6-6 FR
Barnes 6-6 FR
Davis 6-10 JR
Zeller 7-0 JR

Strickland 6-3 SO
Henson 6-10 SO
Graves 6-6 SR
Wear 1 6-10 SO
Marshall 6-3 FR



Drew II will be a junior next year. He's a soph this year. He just plays like a frosh

[Olympic Fan]

"There isn't always alot of improvement of players from their junior to senior years."

Correct. Not always. Fortunately for Duke, Jon Scheyer missed the memo. Note also the junior-senior jumps made by Kevin Strickland, Alaa Abdelnaby, Phil Henderson, Tony Lang, Chris Collins, Roshown McLeod, Chris Carrawell, Dahntay Jones, Daniel Ewing, DeMarcus Nelson and others.

So, we shouldn't discount the possibility either.

Jim, good post ... just like to point out that this year is going to be the second time in three years that Duke will have a senior make first-team All-ACC without ever being even third-team All-ACC in his first three seasons -- Scheyer and DeMarcus Nelson in 2008.

It's also happened recently with Zabian Dowdell at Virginia Tech. Both Josh Howard of Wake and Chris Carrawell of Duke went from a career best third team All-ACC in their first three years to ACC player of the year as seniors.

[MChambers]

You guys have done a good job detailing why/how Duke will be better next year. I agree -- provided Singler returns for his senior year. You just don't realize the impact Irving -- an elite level point guard -- is going to have.

But nobody's looked at the other side of the equation -- how much better will UNC really be?

They're adding a GREAT pair of wings in Barnes and Bullock. With Graves back and Strickland and McDonald a year older, they'll be strong at a position they are weak this season.

They won't have the kind of jet point guard that Roy's best teams have (like Felton and Lawson or Jacque Vaughn at Kansas). Drew is an okay player who will probably make less mistakes as a junior ... and he'll have more options with Barnes and Bullock on the wing. Not sure Marshall is a real upgrade -- he's a polished, excellent passer, but physically, he's pretty average. They'll be deeper at the point with Drew/Marshall but I think the most improvement will be Drew's added experience.

But the real question mark is up front. Thompson will be gone and so will Davis, who is a lock NBA early entry. There's even a reasonable chance to John Henson will make the jump too (Chad Forde still has him a projected top 15 pick in the NBA draft -- that was as of 10 days ago).

That could leave Tyler Zeller and the Wear brothers as UNC's entire post presence. I think Zeller is a nice player, but no bull in the paint. The Wear brothers are complementary players. Even if Henson returns, they'll be much weaker in the post than this year.

Overall? They're better -- much better on the wing, a little better at point and weaker in the post. Are they good enough to make a quantum leap? That depends on (1) How good Barnes is as a freshman; (2) Whether Henson returns and realizes his potential.

Talked to a national writer last night who is very plugged into the prep recruiting scene. Said he doesn't think much of Marshall (he said if Roy had it to do again, he wouldn't have given Marshall the early offer -- the kid has had a terrible senior year) ... and loves Irving (called him the second coming of Jason Williams). Suggested that Irving has more impact that Barnes next year.

If that happens, Duke is still better than UNC next year -- whether Kyle returns or not.

Carolina should be better ... but then, they should be better this year than they are.

PS It's kind of funny, but last fall when the Barnes recruitment came down to the wire, the perception was that Duke had to get him to reverse UNC's dominance of the series. Now, it's obvious that Barnes is UNC's one hope of regaining parity with Duke in the rivalry!

I agree that Carolina should be better, except that it seems to me they are likely to have another ill-fitting roster, especially if Henson leaves. If Henson leaves, they have 3 bigs, all of whom are fine, but none of whom are dominant or like to bang.

They have an excess of wings. How will Graves, Strickland, and McDonald like being on the bench behind Barnes and Bullock? Graves in particular may never get off the bench.

At point, they've got two decent players, but it's not at all clear to me that they fit with Ol' Roy's inflexible system of run, run, run.

It's kind of fun to contemplate.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree that Carolina should be better, except that it seems to me they are likely to have another ill-fitting roster, especially if Henson leaves. If Henson leaves, they have 3 bigs, all of whom are fine, but none of whom are dominant or like to bang.

They have an excess of wings. How will Graves, Strickland, and McDonald like being on the bench behind Barnes and Bullock? Graves in particular may never get off the bench.

At point, they've got two decent players, but it's not at all clear to me that they fit with Ol' Roy's inflexible system of run, run, run.

It's kind of fun to contemplate. Yep, if Henson along with Davis plays the potential card, Harrison Barnes who wants to play some 2, may end up at the 4, because the then senior Graves can light it up and played Barnes even on his visit. Maybe Graves because of his bulk would be the nominal 4.

Singler too may play more 4 than 3 but in both teams' case will be more case of playing two WFs than a SF and a PF.

So Zeller/Plumlee is a push as are Singler/Barnes with Barnes perhaps more skilled but Kyle more experienced. Nolan gets an experience edge over Bullock/Strickland and Kyrie Irving/Tyler Thornton more than counterbalance Kendall Marshall and Larry Drew II.

Both teams would have a strong bench with Curry, Dawkins, a Plumlee, Kelly, Hairston and Thornton in dark blue and Marshall/Drew, Strickland/Bullock, McDonald, Wears, Watts et al in lighter shade of blue, but PG and experience/leadership edge to Duke.

[jipops]

Yep, if Henson along with Davis plays the potential card, Harrison Barnes who wants to play some 2, may end up at the 4, because the then senior Graves can light it up and played Barnes even on his visit. Maybe Graves because of his bulk would be the nominal 4.

Singler too may play more 4 than 3 but in both teams' case will be more case of playing two WFs than a SF and a PF.

So Zeller/Plumlee is a push as are Singler/Barnes with Barnes perhaps more skilled but Kyle more experienced. Nolan gets an experience edge over Bullock/Strickland and Kyrie Irving/Tyler Thornton more than counterbalance Kendall Marshall and Larry Drew II.

Both teams would have a strong bench with Curry, Dawkins, a Plumlee, Kelly, Hairston and Thornton in dark blue and Marshall/Drew, Strickland/Bullock, McDonald, Wears, Watts et al in lighter shade of blue, but PG and experience/leadership edge to Duke.

There is zero chance that Henson is leaving, I'd bank on that. And given Davis' recent injury, likelihood may be lessened that he leaves as well. UNC will likely have overwhelming talent and athleticism at every position next season. We should have a decent bit of experience on our end as well as strong guard play. If Singler decides to stay (which I'd guess is 50/50) then we have a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams.

[Daniel tosh]

Does anyone else besides me think that we will be weaker/unexperienced in the post next year?

[Dukeface88]

Does anyone else besides me think that we will be weaker/unexperienced in the post next year?

There's really too many variables to make a good prediction. Experience wise, it depends on how much we see Kyle at the 4 (which itself probably depends on how Andre develops and whether we pick up Ziegler or Felix). AbIn terms of ability, it also involves the progress of the Plumlees, how much strength Kelly gains over the offseason and how Hairston adjusts to college play. There's a lot of unknowns, and I'd agree that it will be a question mark going in to next season. If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess that we'll be better on the offensive end and worse on the defensive end compared to this year. Whether it will be a net gain, loss or a wash is hard to say.

[CDu]

Does anyone else besides me think that we will be weaker/unexperienced in the post next year?

Well, we will be certainly less experienced in the post next year, as we lose a 4-year starter and another senior. There's really no way of knowing whether we'll be weaker. Who knows for sure how much the Plumlees and Kelly will improve? Who knows how good Hairston will be?

It could be (though I think it's highly unlikely) that the Plumlees and Kelly are no better than they are this year. In that scenario, then it's likely that we'd be worse as a team. It could also be that the Plumlees and Kelly make substantial improvements to their games over the summer and we have a much stronger post trio than this year (along with Singler and Hairston filling out the rest of the 4/5 minutes).

[licc85]

I think an overlooked feature of next team will be Josh Hairston. With Thomas and Zoubs gone, the plumlees will get the nod, with kelly helping out on the 4 when needed, and singler (if he stays) sliding down to the 4 at times. Hairston has the possibility to really shine as a back up, and log valuable minutes. Im not sure how college ready Hairston is but he may have to shape up fast. We also may land an athletic wing that can slide to the 4 when needed, but who knows.

This is a very valid point, I've seen recent videos of him and he just keeps getting better and better. All the talk of him becoming another lance thomas is completely unfounded. This guy has a superb jump shot which he has added to his game this season, and finishes above the rim, which is one major knock on Thomas. His biggest weakness right now from what I've seen/heard is his post defense and rebounding in traffic, but that will improve when he hits the weight room this offseason. I expect big things from Hairston, and I think a lot of scouts underrate him, he should have been a McDs AA.

[sagegrouse]

I am probably the tenth guy or gal to say this, but:

Yawn.

This is a June topic when there is nothing else to discuss.

sagegrouse