Charting Duke vs. Florida State

[Jumbo]

So there were two really interesting nuggets from the FSU game that illustrate both the value of plus/minus stats and the reasons why one-game sample sizes shouldn't be taken too seriously.

First, it's absolutely impossible to ignore the job done by the "Experience Lineup" of Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek. They outscored FSU 21-6, meaning all of Duke's other lineups got outscored by a point in total. And that group was consistent, getting three separate stints together, during which they outscored Florida State, 5-2, 7-2 and 9-2. That's impressive enough in different instances to take seriously.

On the flipside, Duke happened to go on a quick 7-0 spurt when Dawkins was in for Scheyer for 2 minutes in the first half, and played with the other 4 starters. Obviously, no one would suggest moving Scheyer to the bench in favor of Dawkins, or even wish Duke had used that lineup more often in this particular game. So, there's a prime reason why we can't read too much into single-game plus/minus stats. But, it's still fun stuff!

Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Lance Thomas 60-39 (+21)
Nolan Smith 70-52 (+18)
Kyle Singler 70-54 (+16)
Brian Zoubek 27-15 (+12)
Jon Scheyer 63-56 (+7)
Miles Plumlee 29-26 (+3)
Andre Dawkins 16-14 (+2)
Ryan Kelly 0-2 (-2)
Mason Plumlee 15-22 (-7)

Per 40 Minutes
Brian Zoubek +36.9
Lance Thomas +24
Nolan Smith +18.9
Kyle Singler +16.8
Andre Dawkins +8.9
Jon Scheyer +7.4
Miles Plumlee +6.3
Mason Plumlee -35
Ryan Kelly -40

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek (x3) 21-6 (+15)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Miles 7-0 (+7)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas (x2) 5-2 (+3)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Mason 5-3 (+2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Zoubek 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Kelly 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Thomas-Kelly-Miles 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Zoubek 6-7 (-1)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Mason 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Kelly-Mason-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Mason 4-8 (-4)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x7) 22-26 (-4)

[1999ballboy]

I actually think the most interesting part of these numbers is the fact that our starting lineup- which we used the most times (7)-came up 4 points behind FSU. Not sure why this was. Could be Miles having trouble defending Alabi. He got a few buckets (and Singleton too) from mismatches resulting from Miles going outside for help defense.

Hats off to the "experience lineup," though. Lance and Zoubs play really well together, and Lance has done a much better job of staying out of foul trouble which allows him to play these kinds of minutes. I'd actually like to see K go to this lineup more.

Along those lines, I wonder why he doesn't play the Plumlees together as much. They've played well together in other games. It would seem to make sense that, instead of pairing Lance with Miles and Zoubs with Mason, to use Lance/Zoubs and Miles/Mason more frequently. Go with the two pairs of post players that have the most experience playing with one another.

[Dukeface88]

Along those lines, I wonder why he doesn't play the Plumlees together as much. They've played well together in other games. It would seem to make sense that, instead of pairing Lance with Miles and Zoubs with Mason, to use Lance/Zoubs and Miles/Mason more frequently. Go with the two pairs of post players that have the most experience playing with one another.

There's a bit of a defensive drop off that occurs with both Plumlees in; I would guess K doesn't think they're consistent enough on offense to justify it, although they do show flashes (like the Wake game).

[CameronCrazy'11]

Zoubek was in just 13 minutes, yet 12 points out of our 14 point lead was built during those 13 minutes. WOW! Zoubek gets entirely too much crap from our fans.

[DukeCO2009]

Zoubek was in just 13 minutes, yet 12 points out of our 14 point lead was built during those 13 minutes. WOW! Zoubek gets entirely too much crap from our fans.

I can't help but think that a lot of Z's contributions are a product of circumstance--ie: his being on the court with other good players. He was, if I may, less than stellar tonight. While he had one huge tip-in, his work on the glass was weak and he once again played small. He's decent in spurts and fills his role nicely when his minutes are limited, but to say that he "gets entirely too much crap" is a bit off base if you've ever seen him play. Mason should absolutely get more minutes than Zoubek at this point in the season, just as Miles should have played more than Z last year. Aside from passing (which is debatable), there's not a single thing Brian does better than Mason right now. You can give me all the per-40 stats you want; I've seen quite enough of Brian's missed layup-->grab his own board (causing DBR to go balistic about his offensive rebounding prowess)-->get stripped/turn it over to put too much stock into them. As I said, Z is valuable when he fills his role, but when he plays enough minutes to foul out he's getting too much burn IMO.

[1999ballboy]

I can't help but think that a lot of Z's contributions are a product of circumstance--ie: his being on the court with other good players. He was, if I may, less than stellar tonight. While he had one huge tip-in, his work on the glass was weak and he once again played small. He's decent in spurts and fills his role nicely when his minutes are limited, but to say that he "gets entirely too much crap" is a bit off base if you've ever seen him play. Mason should absolutely get more minutes than Zoubek at this point in the season, just as Miles should have played more than Z last year. Aside from passing (which is debatable), there's not a single thing Brian does better than Mason right now. You can give me all the per-40 stats you want; I've seen quite enough of Brian's missed layup-->grab his own board (causing DBR to go balistic about his offensive rebounding prowess)-->get stripped/turn it over to put too much stock into them. As I said, Z is valuable when he fills his role, but when he plays enough minutes to foul out he's getting too much burn IMO.


All of the bolded parts of this are absolutely ridiculous. When our big 3 are playing 38 minutes apiece, then guess what? EVERYONE is on the court with other good players. You can dismiss the per-40 stats if you want, but they show one thing: results. When you say there's not a single thing Brian does better than Mason, how about producing results? Sorry, but in basketball, the ends DO justify the means. Everyone knows Zoubek has next to no athletic ability, while Mason is a beast. So what? Did you see Mason play tonight? He did not play very well at all. I see his potential just like everyone else, but it has yet to be developed, and contrary to popular belief, it CAN be developed in practice and the offseason (see Exhibit A: Miles last year vs. Miles this year). Speaking of Miles last year, we couldn't have played him more than 5 minutes a game if we tried because he got into foul trouble that quickly. He was worse than Zoubs. He also did not know how to give the ball up if he got it under the basket. He seemed to have the mentality of, I'm the post player, it ends with me no matter what. Zoubek, meanwhile, is a surprisingly good passer and has always been good at that. This year, I'm happy to say that Miles has improved a ton, as will Mason before next year. He's a freshman and will have LOTS of time to show what he can do, but for now, Zoubek is getting it done.

Can I add that it's really weird to call someone "off-base" for defending our own player from our own fans?

[pfrduke]

I can't help but think that a lot of Z's contributions are a product of circumstance--ie: his being on the court with other good players. He was, if I may, less than stellar tonight. While he had one huge tip-in, his work on the glass was weak and he once again played small. He's decent in spurts and fills his role nicely when his minutes are limited, but to say that he "gets entirely too much crap" is a bit off base if you've ever seen him play. Mason should absolutely get more minutes than Zoubek at this point in the season, just as Miles should have played more than Z last year. Aside from passing (which is debatable), there's not a single thing Brian does better than Mason right now. You can give me all the per-40 stats you want; I've seen quite enough of Brian's missed layup-->grab his own board (causing DBR to go balistic about his offensive rebounding prowess)-->get stripped/turn it over to put too much stock into them. As I said, Z is valuable when he fills his role, but when he plays enough minutes to foul out he's getting too much burn IMO.

There is so much of this that's incorrect it's hard to know where to start. But what the hey...

First, and simplest, Zoubek has 66 offensive rebounds on the season. Precisely 6 of those have been off his own misses. Even if you exclude those (not sure why you would, since even if you miss, it's better that you grab the rebound than not, but I'll play your game for argument's sake), he has the best offensive rebounding percentage of anyone in the ACC by a large margin. In raw terms this season, he has more offensive boards than Trevor Booker, Deon Thompson, Ed Davis, Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Dwayne Collins. They've all played at least 470 minutes; Brian has played 316. He's been a monster on the offensive glass all season long.

Second, Brian does essentially everything on defense better than Mason right now. It's not really debatable. He has a very intuitive sense of where to be on the court, how far to hedge, how to help, etc.

Third, Zoubek is shooting 62.2% from the field. That's good. Mason's shooting 45.2%. That's less good.

Fourth, Brian did more tonight than just the tip-in (which was a good play). He had two nice post plays early in the first half where he avoided shot blockers with good angles to the basket and pump fakes and converted layups. In 13 minutes, he was 3-4 from the floor, grabbed a couple offensive boards, and had 2 assists to his 1 turnover (the moving screen, which admittedly kills me every time he does it).

Finally, I've tracked +/- on a possession basis since Zoubek's freshman year. In every one of those seasons, the margin for the team while Brian is on the floor is better than the team's overall margin. That's been true both in ACC play and on the season overall. 4 years of the same data is mroe than just luck or playing with good players.

I'm beginning to think that Zoubek is the most under appreciated player we've had in a long while. Maybe it's because he looks a little clumsy. Maybe it's because he's not a power center. Maybe it's just because we assume any 7-footer should be an automatic 20/10 guy, and are disappointed that he's not. But the guy is an extremely valuable player for us, end of story.

[CrazieDUMB]

You know, I really like it when K goes to the four guard set of scheyer, dawkins, smith, and singler. While our lack of depth is certainly going to limit our chances at that lineup, it's great seeing us spread the floor with four capable scorers; I really think it opens up passing lanes and scoring opportunities. From the cumulative +/- page (thru second clemson game)


Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (x6) 19-7 (+12)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek (x14) 74-52 (+22)

Then again, maybe I'm just overly used to see guard-dominated lineups from Duke. Fun to watch.

[Jumbo]

I can't help but think that a lot of Z's contributions are a product of circumstance--ie: his being on the court with other good players. He was, if I may, less than stellar tonight. While he had one huge tip-in, his work on the glass was weak and he once again played small. He's decent in spurts and fills his role nicely when his minutes are limited, but to say that he "gets entirely too much crap" is a bit off base if you've ever seen him play. Mason should absolutely get more minutes than Zoubek at this point in the season, just as Miles should have played more than Z last year. Aside from passing (which is debatable), there's not a single thing Brian does better than Mason right now. You can give me all the per-40 stats you want; I've seen quite enough of Brian's missed layup-->grab his own board (causing DBR to go balistic about his offensive rebounding prowess)-->get stripped/turn it over to put too much stock into them. As I said, Z is valuable when he fills his role, but when he plays enough minutes to foul out he's getting too much burn IMO.

Other players were on the floor with the same "good players" as Zoubek, and the team didn't perform as well. That's been a season-long trend. I love Mason's potential, but "if you've watched," as you say, you'd know that Zoubek is better in the following areas:
-Rebounding (particulalry at the offensive end, where he's among the nation's best)
-Setting screens
-Defensive positioning
-Interior passing
-Effectively running Duke's sets

Those things are all critical in Duke's mission to function as a unit. I hope Mason will develop, but right now he's out of sync with what we're doing on both ends, which affects everyone else on the court. He's late to react, whether it's to help defense or to go set the right screen on offense. And he's also having a ton of trouble finishing on offense -- makes interesting moves, then throws up junk that clangs off the front rim. I think he can be a terrific player, but it's absolutely wrong to say he should be getting more minutes than Zoubek every game. Right now, K's approach is the right one with the 4 bigs -- rotate them frequentlyl and then go with the hot hand(s) at winning time.

[superdave]

You know, I really like it when K goes to the four guard set of scheyer, dawkins, smith, and singler. While our lack of depth is certainly going to limit our chances at that lineup, it's great seeing us spread the floor with four capable scorers; I really think it opens up passing lanes and scoring opportunities. From the cumulative +/- page (thru second clemson game)


Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (x6) 19-7 (+12)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek (x14) 74-52 (+22)

Then again, maybe I'm just overly used to see guard-dominated lineups from Duke. Fun to watch.

I believe the announcers (when not talking about unrelated matters) mentioned Leonard Hamilton's concern about Kyle at the 4, saying it was a bad matchup for FSU.

[sagegrouse]

Zoubek was in just 13 minutes, yet 12 points out of our 14 point lead was built during those 13 minutes. WOW! Zoubek gets entirely too much crap from our fans.

Well it is tempting to shout, "Zoubs should get more than 13 minutes!" But, of course, he fouled out in 13 minutes.

sagegrouse

[fuse]

Zoubek was in just 13 minutes, yet 12 points out of our 14 point lead was built during those 13 minutes. WOW! Zoubek gets entirely too much crap from our fans.

Amen. Not sure it bears out statistically but we were at our best when Zoubek was in the game from my view.

[MChambers]

Other players were on the floor with the same "good players" as Zoubek, and the team didn't perform as well. That's been a season-long trend. I love Mason's potential, but "if you've watched," as you say, you'd know that Zoubek is better in the following areas:
-Rebounding (particulalry at the offensive end, where he's among the nation's best)
-Setting screens
-Defensive positioning
-Interior passing
-Effectively running Duke's sets

Those things are all critical in Duke's mission to function as a unit. I hope Mason will develop, but right now he's out of sync with what we're doing on both ends, which affects everyone else on the court. He's late to react, whether it's to help defense or to go set the right screen on offense. And he's also having a ton of trouble finishing on offense -- makes interesting moves, then throws up junk that clangs off the front rim. I think he can be a terrific player, but it's absolutely wrong to say he should be getting more minutes than Zoubek every game. Right now, K's approach is the right one with the 4 bigs -- rotate them frequentlyl and then go with the hot hand(s) at winning time.

I remember one possession in the first half where Mason was trapping on the full court press. When FSU broke the press, he rushed back on defense, but went into the lane, where the other Duke big had an FSU big covered, and another FSU big (Reid or Singleton, I think) was wide open at the three point line. By the time, Mason realized his mistake, it was too late, and FSU had made an easy three.

He's hustling, but he's in the wrong spot as often as not.

His three point attempt was a line drive, with almost no chance of going in. He was wide open, but seemed to rush it.

He's obviously wonderfully talented and working hard, but so far it mostly isn't clicking. He looked great against Wake, however, and I keep hoping we'll see more of that.

[Kfanarmy]

I can't help but think that a lot of Z's contributions are a product of circumstance--ie: his being on the court with other good players. He was, if I may, less than stellar tonight....

For all of you who responded to this post with grace, I applaud you. It made me see red.

[miramar]

Zoubs is never going to get style points, but the +/- is useful precisely because it only counts the results. Besides, he has a rakish look with the beard, so he doesn't have to worry about style points.