Minutes Distribution/Bench Depth/Fatigue Issues

[Billy Dat]

Since this is a topic that gets discussed in many other threads, I wanted to do some data mining for myself and offer it to the group for discussion in one thread.

I looked at, roughly, the top 10 teams in terms of the following:
-Avg minutes per game by the top 3 (to compare to our top 3)
-# of players averaging 20+ MPG
-# of players averaging 10+ MPG

I tend to side with those who feel the fatigue factor is either not an issue or one more easily remedied by scaling back the intensity during practice. But, I'd never seen the data organized in one place so I thought I'd put it out for discussion.


Team..........Avg Minutes Top 3.....Players Avg 10+ MPG.....Players Averaging 20+ MPG
Duke....................35....................8... ................................4
West Virginia.........32.5.................10.......... ........................5
Gonzaga...............32.2..................7..... .............................5
Pitt......................31.8.................10. .................................7
Kentucky..............31.7...................9.... ..............................5
Syracuse..............29.5...................9.... ...............................7
Kansas State........28.6....................9............ .......................5
Villanova...............28.4....................9. ..................................6
Kansas..................28.2.....................8 .................................6
Michigan State........27.2....................7............ ......................7
Texas....................26.8...................10 ..................................5
Tennessee..............26.1...................11.. ................................5

This is full year data which includes a lot of early season blowouts for each team and doesn't reflect more recent game trends. I've got this data in a spreadsheet if anyone is interested in seeing other cuts or sorts.

[DukeUsul]

The other question the data doesn't present is how many of these teams have very very little backcourt depth to provide relief to their starting guards?

[houstondukie]

Since this is a topic that gets discussed in many other threads, I wanted to do some data mining for myself and offer it to the group for discussion in one thread.

I looked at, roughly, the top 10 teams in terms of the following:
-Avg minutes per game by the top 3 (to compare to our top 3)
-# of players averaging 20+ MPG
-# of players averaging 10+ MPG

I tend to side with those who feel the fatigue factor is either not an issue or one more easily remedied by scaling back the intensity during practice. But, I'd never seen the data organized in one place so I thought I'd put it out for discussion.


Team..........Avg Minutes Top 3.....Players Avg 10+ MPG.....Players Averaging 20+ MPG
Duke....................35....................8... ................................4
West Virginia.........32.5.................10.......... ........................5
Gonzaga...............32.2..................7..... .............................5
Pitt......................31.8.................10. .................................7
Kentucky..............31.7...................9.... ..............................5
Syracuse..............29.5...................9.... ...............................7
Kansas State........28.6....................9............ .......................5
Villanova...............28.4....................9. ..................................6
Kansas..................28.2.....................8 .................................6
Michigan State........27.2....................7............ ......................7
Texas....................26.8...................10 ..................................5
Tennessee..............26.1...................11.. ................................5

This is full year data which includes a lot of early season blowouts for each team and doesn't reflect more recent game trends. I've got this data in a spreadsheet if anyone is interested in seeing other cuts or sorts.

Nice post.

Didn't see Georgetown on your list, who has the thinnest bench in the country IMO. But even their top 3 (Monroe, Wright, Freeman) average less than Duke's:

Avg. Min. Top 3: 33.6
Players Avg. 10+ min: 6
Players Avg. 20+ min: 6

[Matches]

I think you really have to get closer to the end of the season for the stats to be particularly meaningful, because of the early-season blowouts you mention. At this point they're still a fairly high percentage of the team's total number of games, and they skew the stats quite a bit.

[houstondukie]

I think you really have to get closer to the end of the season for the stats to be particularly meaningful, because of the early-season blowouts you mention. At this point they're still a fairly high percentage of the team's total number of games, and they skew the stats quite a bit.

That's true, however, in the case of Duke's big 3, I expect the avg. min. played to increase as the season progresses.

[Billy Dat]

I want to also look at these stats for the top ranked teams at the end of last season but that may have to wait until I put in some more time, today, at the job that pays my bills.

[buckshot]

I think you really have to get closer to the end of the season for the stats to be particularly meaningful, because of the early-season blowouts you mention. At this point they're still a fairly high percentage of the team's total number of games, and they skew the stats quite a bit.

Duke has had quite a few blowouts as well. Probalby just as many or more than some of these other teams. This might be a better reflection of how the coaching staff manages a blowout.

[uh_no]

Didn't see Georgetown on your list, who has the thinnest bench in the country IMO. But even their top 3 (Monroe, Wright, Freeman) average less than Duke's:



uconn?

[jv001]

The other question the data doesn't present is how many of these teams have very very little backcourt depth to provide relief to their starting guards?
Great post!
It just happens our big 3 are our perimeter guys. We have marginal depth at best at these positions. Dawkins and Kelly. Maybe Mason will be there sooner or later. Just not ready now. Dawkins is injured and lacks confidence at this point in the season. Kelly can't defend the 3's in the ACC. So Coach K has to mix and match the best he can. He has done a great job this year in doing just that. As long as we stay out of foul trouble, the big 3 will get 32-35 minutes. Let's hope we stay out of foul trouble and Dre gets healthy and regains his confidence. Go Duke!

[mapei]

I was actually surprised that the Hoyas' big three didn't log even more average minutes per game. Against Pitt, UConn, and Villanova, for example, all of the GU big 3 played over 35 minutes in each, except for Chris Wright against Villanova, when he had foul trouble.

Gtown's 6th and 7th men, Hollis Thompson and Jerrelle Bennimon, are coming along nicely as subs, but JT3 likes a short bench and there is no question that the starters are significantly better. Many of us who follow the team are surprised that Henry Sims isn't playing more, since he shows well when he does, but in some games he doesn't get in at all.

[camion]

Fatigue might be a problem, but remember that correlation doesn't mean causation. If we have an off game is it always fatigue that is the cause? How can we tell?

What other factors might contribute to a loss? Is there any way to tell if a defeat at the end of the year had fatigue as a major factor rather than some other factor like playing a better team?

[Matches]

What other factors might contribute to a loss? Is there any way to tell if a defeat at the end of the year had fatigue as a major factor rather than some other factor like playing a better team?

It's like art - you know it when you see it. JJ looked noticeably fatigued at the end of the '06 season, for example. You could just see he was a half-step slower than he had been earlier in the year. Kyle likewise looked beat-up and run-down at the end of the '08 season.

And sure - there are PLENTY of other things that might contribute to a loss.

[MChambers]

I was actually surprised that the Hoyas' big three didn't log even more average minutes per game. Against Pitt, UConn, and Villanova, for example, all of the GU big 3 played over 35 minutes in each, except for Chris Wright against Villanova, when he had foul trouble.

Gtown's 6th and 7th men, Hollis Thompson and Jerrelle Bennimon, are coming along nicely as subs, but JT3 likes a short bench and there is no question that the starters are significantly better. Many of us who follow the team are surprised that Henry Sims isn't playing more, since he shows well when he does, but in some games he doesn't get in at all.

Pomeroy analyzes bench use statistically, although not by your first three players, by your first five instead. UConn is flat out last at 347; Georgetown is close behind at 344. Duke is at 286. Wake is 295; Maryland is 279. UNC has a wonderful bench, 45th most minutes in the country.

If someone really wants to think about this analytically, rather than shooting from the hip (but this is a BBS after all), you could see how highly ranked teams do the rest of the year, sorted by bench minutes. Of course, this could be affected by injuries. We all know Duke will be in trouble if it has serious injuries.

[BD80]

Nice post.

Didn't see Georgetown on your list, who has the thinnest bench in the country IMO. ...

Thinner than Henson, Zeller and the Wear brothers? They must not need a bench, a single seat would suffice.

[SCMatt33]

Team..........Avg Minutes Top 3.....Players Avg 10+ MPG.....Players Averaging 20+ MPG
Duke....................35....................8... ................................4
West Virginia.........32.5.................10.......... ........................5
Gonzaga...............32.2..................7..... .............................5
Pitt......................31.8.................10. .................................7
Kentucky..............31.7...................9.... ..............................5
Syracuse..............29.5...................9.... ...............................7
Kansas State........28.6....................9............ .......................5
Villanova...............28.4....................9. ..................................6
Kansas..................28.2.....................8 .................................6
Michigan State........27.2....................7............ ......................7
Texas....................26.8...................10 ..................................5
Tennessee..............26.1...................11.. ................................5


Just wanted to highlight a few things about these numbers. For Pitt and Tennessee, injuries and suspensions have caused many of these numbers. Pitt was without a couple players until mid-December and Tennessee's player issues are well documented. FWIW, Texas has been blasted in the media recently for going to the other end and giving too many players minutes and not having a set rotation. If our numbers stay where they are, which would mean that Dawkins gets more time than he's been getting, we should be fine. I don't see where Kelly getting over 10 min/game the rest of the way will help us that much.

If Dre can work on his D and get into games consistently, there's nothing more to ask for. In any one game, I'm fine with him not getting on the floor because Duke is better with the three S's on the floor at one time, but that doesn't need to happen (and it hasn't been happening) every night. I just wouldn't want to see us get into that rut.

[houstondukie]

Just wanted to highlight a few things about these numbers. For Pitt and Tennessee, injuries and suspensions have caused many of these numbers. Pitt was without a couple players until mid-December and Tennessee's player issues are well documented. FWIW, Texas has been blasted in the media recently for going to the other end and giving too many players minutes and not having a set rotation. If our numbers stay where they are, which would mean that Dawkins gets more time than he's been getting, we should be fine. I don't see where Kelly getting over 10 min/game the rest of the way will help us that much.

If Dre can work on his D and get into games consistently, there's nothing more to ask for. In any one game, I'm fine with him not getting on the floor because Duke is better with the three S's on the floor at one time, but that doesn't need to happen (and it hasn't been happening) every night. I just wouldn't want to see us get into that rut.

I absolutely agree. If Andre Dawkins can give us 15-20 minutes of quality play (allowing the 3 S's 5-7 min. of rest each game), we will be fine.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

1) a)
1) b)
http://www.duke.edu/~bct1/images/DBRHPR7.1asPDF.pdf

And as always, 9F! :D

[BD80]

That basterd Coach K's evil infuence is spreading!

http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2010-01-25/notre-dame-coach-brey-willing-ride-his-starters-long-way

It is well known that Brey is a K disciple, and he played his starters 176 out of the 200 minute game against DePaul. DEPAUL!!!

Brey's starters averaged 35.2 minutes, and Brey refuses to apologize!

How do these dumb coaches get such good, high paying jobs?

How can ADs be so dumb to keep these coaches employed when there are so many coaches available that are so much brighter right here on these boards?

Of course I am being sarcastic (which shouldn't bear mentioning, but I once got sent to sit in the DBR corner for being similarly sarcastic without so expressly stating).

What I don't understand is what those complaining about playing time believe Coach K's motives are for not playing the bench more. The staff carefully monitor playing time. Coach K is obviously trying to give the team the best chance of winning a National Championship, and, in tournament games, it is likely that the key players will play 36-40 minutes. Why have it be different in the regular season?

As for Kyle looking so worn down two years ago, isn't that when he and much of the team came down with the flu during the tournament?

[dukestheheat]

That is great information and I appreciate you putting in the time to formulate that.

I don't think Duke is tired; Duke got beat by three teams that, in those particular games and at those times, were better.

dth.

[Regenman]

Wow, I can reply with an equal amount of sarcasm.

How are those Coach K disciples doing in the ranks???

Snyder (out)
Brey
Amaker (out at Michigan--now at Harvard)
O'Toole (out at Fairfield)
Dawkins

Brey has been to the NIT 4 out of the last 6 years and he's your posterchild? I'm wondering if your sarcasm is actually sarcasm directed at sarcasm (otherwise, it's just loopy).

[Troublemaker]

There's no doubt, our big 3 plays tons of minutes that no other team's top 3 players have to deal with. Part of that, of course, is having only one backup guard on the team. While I believe our big 3 has been trained to play those kinds of minutes and will be fine later on in the season, I do hope to see Andre get 10-12 minutes consistently in ACC play. Not necessarily to rest the big 3 but because you want to give him a chance every game to heat up his shot. Some games, he won't be hitting, but some games, he'll catch fire and maybe swing the outcome. He was within range of stealing the Wisconsin game, for example, when Duke really had no business coming even close to winning that game the way the two teams played. I do think his total lack of playing time against Clemson was a one-time thing and matchup specific (weak ball-handler going against a press on the road).

[Delaware]

Wow, I can reply with an equal amount of sarcasm.

How are those Coach K disciples doing in the ranks???

Snyder (out)
Brey
Amaker (out at Michigan--now at Harvard)
O'Toole (out at Fairfield)
Dawkins

Brey has been to the NIT 4 out of the last 6 years and he's your posterchild? I'm wondering if your sarcasm is actually sarcasm directed at sarcasm (otherwise, it's just loopy).


I think you ought to rethink Brey's success at ND. A look at the facts:
- He has taken them to 5 NCAA tourney's in the last 9 years that he has been head coach (00 to 09). ND could get a bid this year as well.. 6 in 10 years.
- In the ten years (90 to 99) before that (with "Doh" for one year, btw)... 1 time.
- In the golden years of Digger Phelps' last 10 years (81 to 90).... 7 (about the same as Brey).

You have to consider the program you are describing before throwing stones.

[BD80]

Wow, I can reply with an equal amount of sarcasm.

How are those Coach K disciples doing in the ranks???

Snyder (out)
Brey
Amaker (out at Michigan--now at Harvard)
O'Toole (out at Fairfield)
Dawkins

Brey has been to the NIT 4 out of the last 6 years and he's your posterchild? I'm wondering if your sarcasm is actually sarcasm directed at sarcasm (otherwise, it's just loopy).

Awfully selective in your facts.

Brey has been to the NCAA tourney 2 out of the last 3 years, and 5 of the 9 years he has been at ND. ND hadn't been to the tourney for the 11 years before Brey arrived. Brey was (Skip Prosser)Man of the Year 2008, and Big East Coach of the year 2007 and 2008.

Snyder is the reigning Coach of the year in the NBDL. OK, not great, but he's still coaching.

O'Toole was at Duke for just 2 years, but made a living coaching for 18 years, was Coach of the year in the MAAC, and is now a sportscaster.

Dawkins, first head coaching job is at Stanford, a great coaching gig, and currently a game out of first place in the PAC10 (everybody is a game out of 1st in the PAC10).

Amaker, has Harvard (did you say Harvard?) YES HARVARD in the top 25, while Beilein is proving that Amaker did a fantastic job turning around a scandal riddled program at Michigan with third rate facilities.

You might consider adding Coach Capel who spent 4 years with Coach K and who implements much of Coach K's coaching philosophy.

But obviously my sarcasm missed its target, it was meant to highlight that these kids can and do play 35+ minutes in games.

Interesting you chose not to enlighten us as to Coach K's nefarious intent in keeping Andre or Ryan or Mason on the bench.

[NSDukeFan]

Awfully selective in your facts.

Brey has been to the NCAA tourney 2 out of the last 3 years, and 5 of the 9 years he has been at ND. ND hadn't been to the tourney for the 11 years before Brey arrived. Brey was (Skip Prosser)Man of the Year 2008, and Big East Coach of the year 2007 and 2008.

Snyder is the reigning Coach of the year in the NBDL. OK, not great, but he's still coaching.

O'Toole was at Duke for just 2 years, but made a living coaching for 18 years, was Coach of the year in the MAAC, and is now a sportscaster.

Dawkins, first head coaching job is at Stanford, a great coaching gig, and currently a game out of first place in the PAC10 (everybody is a game out of 1st in the PAC10).

Amaker, has Harvard (did you say Harvard?) YES HARVARD in the top 25, while Beilein is proving that Amaker did a fantastic job turning around a scandal riddled program at Michigan with third rate facilities.

You might consider adding Coach Capel who spent 4 years with Coach K and who implements much of Coach K's coaching philosophy.

But obviously my sarcasm missed its target, it was meant to highlight that these kids can and do play 35+ minutes in games.

Interesting you chose not to enlighten us as to Coach K's nefarious intent in keeping Andre or Ryan or Mason on the bench.

Very nice response. I was thinking the same, or similar, but you replied better than I could have.

[duke23]

Wanted to note that Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins both played 39 minutes for Cuse, while Freeman played 39, Wright played 37, and Clark played 33 for G'Town (Monroe only played 28 but fouled out with 6:27 to go).

And Cuse was up by double digits for the last 13 minutes of the game, up by 18 with 2 minutes left. What are Jim Boeheim and JT III thinking??? :rolleyes:

[Regenman]

Wow, Coach K gets full credit for Capel's coaching development? Nice try.

Coaching is about what have you done for me lately but I guess with this crowd you can start off hot and then get fired and not take any heat for your bad seasons.

Snyder was hot and he's out.

Amaker was hot and he's now at Harvard after Michigan (or are you saying that's a promotion?)

O'Toole's contract was not extended by Fairfield in 2006.

O'Toole's own quote:

''We had to do better,'' O'Toole said. ''I'm aware of that. I'm grateful for the opportunity Fairfield gave me 20-some odd years ago and this past chance.

So we're left with Dawkins (10-9, 4-3 in the Pac-10). The Pac 10 is so weak there's talk about only one bid for them.

Even if I give you Brey, are you saying these two coaches are Coach K's current legacy? Are you using that to beef up your "argument" about minutes? BTW, if I use your Brey logic, how about this one "ND wasn't in the NCAAs last year" instead of saying he was 2 out of the last 3. I can play this game some more.

Talk about being selective with your facts......

I got your sarcasm.

PS I didn't start this thread about the bench. I'm just attacking the logic of using Brey as a benchmark

PPS Oh, I forgot to mention David Henderson (out at Delaware)

[tele]

To me the remarkable thing isn't that the more experienced and better players are getting more of the minutes, it's that these players can get all these minutes and avoid getting into foul trouble and having to sit to keep from fouling out. that isn't easy to do

[camion]

To me the remarkable thing isn't that the more experienced and better players are getting more of the minutes, it's that these players can get all these minutes and avoid getting into foul trouble and having to sit to keep from fouling out. that isn't easy to do

Perhaps they can avoid fouls because they're better and more experienced.

[CDu]

Amaker, has Harvard (did you say Harvard?) YES HARVARD in the top 25, while Beilein is proving that Amaker did a fantastic job turning around a scandal riddled program at Michigan with third rate facilities.

I realize this is nitpicky, but your statement here is is not correct. Harvard is not in the Top-25. They simply received a single Top-25 vote. And I'm not entirely sure why they received that vote, as they're 13-3 with only a win over a bad BC team on their resume.


Interesting you chose not to enlighten us as to Coach K's nefarious intent in keeping Andre or Ryan or Mason on the bench.

I don't think most people believe that Coach K has nefarious intentions by not playing the freshmen more. I think that for many the concern is that these players don't get the chance to develop in game situations, and that may put a ceiling on the team's capabilities come tournament time.

I've swayed to both sides of this issue over time, and honestly I'm not sure where I fall now. But I get annoyed when people misrepresent the argument. One can disagree with something Coach K does without (1) thinking Coach K is a bad coach and (2) thinking Coach K has evil intentions.

[DukeVu]

Coach Capel is the son of a Very successful Basketball Coach which probably has more influence on his coaching. Also, I do not see any schools pressing to hire Wojo and/or Collins.

[miramar]

I want to also look at these stats for the top ranked teams at the end of last season but that may have to wait until I put in some more time, today, at the job that pays my bills.

I'm afraid that we're going to have to sit down and have a little talk about your priorities...

[davekay1971]

Wow, I can reply with an equal amount of sarcasm.

How are those Coach K disciples doing in the ranks???

Snyder (out)
Brey
Amaker (out at Michigan--now at Harvard)
O'Toole (out at Fairfield)
Dawkins

Brey has been to the NIT 4 out of the last 6 years and he's your posterchild? I'm wondering if your sarcasm is actually sarcasm directed at sarcasm (otherwise, it's just loopy).

Sarcasm or not, I can't imagine how your post is remotely related to this thread. The post you were responding to referenced Brey's use (or lack thereof) of his bench, but you're going down the tangent of whether or not Coach K develops his assistants into decent head coaching candidates. This is a subject well discussed on illustrious places such as TwerpNet and IC. We could certainly start a thread on the subject and have a lively discussion about it. However, given that this thread is about minutes, bench use, and fatigue, do you have any thoughts on whether or not Coach K is using his bench adequately or whether his use of minutes is setting the team up for fatigue issues in March? And, if so, how would you recommend redistributing the perimeter minutes to prevent this problem? Would you be willing to possibly lose a couple more regular season games to give Andre (who we all love, but, at this point, represents a stepdown in offensive and defensive productivity compared to Nolan and Jon) more minutes, taking those minutes away from Nolan and Jon.

In short, can we stay on point?

[Jeffrey]

Also, I do not see any schools pressing to hire Wojo and/or Collins.

Do you really believe this?

[Jeffrey]

IMO, fatigue is a major concern. I doubt other coaches would be discussing this issue, during 2nd half TO's, if they also did not consider it a major issue for Duke. I'd like to see Andre get more high pressure minutes, even if it means losing some close games before March.

[dukeblue42323]

the New York Knicks and Mike D'Antoni do the same thing.. it doesn't work well for the Knicks because they don't have a good 8 players to play. With Duke it works great and I"m a huge fan of it. I wonder if D'Antoni changed K's coaching style a little while at the Olympics?

[pfrduke]

IMO, fatigue is a major concern. I doubt other coaches would be discussing this issue, during 2nd half TO's, if they also did not consider it a major issue for Duke. I'd like to see Andre get more high pressure minutes, even if it means losing some close games before March.

Well, I'm not sure Oliver Purnell was right about it. If anyone looked gassed at the end of that game, it was Clemson, not Duke. Those coaches that think fatigue is a "major issue" for us may not actually be right.

[DukeUsul]

Well, I'm not sure Oliver Purnell was right about it. If anyone looked gassed at the end of that game, it was Clemson, not Duke. Those coaches that think fatigue is a "major issue" for us may not actually be right.

I think if you look back to the Wake game, you'll also see that our guys were not the ones huffing for breath at the end of the game.

[bcato]

We got a kick out of that coaching strategy....sure glad I'm not having to tell my team to play hard because the other team is going to get tired and then we'll get them. I hope mre coaches resort to that 'strategy'



IMO, fatigue is a major concern. I doubt other coaches would be discussing this issue, during 2nd half TO's, if they also did not consider it a major issue for Duke. I'd like to see Andre get more high pressure minutes, even if it means losing some close games before March.

[J_C_Steel]

Here's another factor.

Duke plays a TON of televised games. Almost all of them, in fact. And TV games have more and longer timeouts, giving the starters more rest. Hopefully this will help, but I do worry about the grind of the ACC schedule on the "Big Three" (or "Earth, Wind and Scheyer" -- JasonEvans).

[roywhite]

Well, I'm not sure Oliver Purnell was right about it. If anyone looked gassed at the end of that game, it was Clemson, not Duke. Those coaches that think fatigue is a "major issue" for us may not actually be right.

Wouldn't we expect fatigue to show up in the second half in areas like shooting and ball handling?

Second half stats for Duke vs Clemson

Clemson
38.5% FG 5 turnovers 1 steal

Duke
50% FG 2 turnovers 4 steals

[KyDevilinIL]

For kids this age, mental fatigue is, in my opinion, more likely to cause problems than physical fatigue. Duke gets long TV timeouts throughout the season, but once the NCAAT comes around, the timeouts are absolutely interminable. Those who've been to the NCAAT in person have a better understanding of how ludicrously long tourney timeouts are. So Duke gets a ton of in-game rest. More so over the course of a season, I would suspect, than about 90 percent of the rest of college basketball.

But a tired brain can trick the whole body into feeling sluggish. I thought that's what happened with J.J. against LSU. Sure, Shelden kept us in it with 23 points, but J.J. had the weight of the world on his shoulders that game. And every miss made it heavier and heavier. Just my opinion.

Same thing against West Virginia in 08. With nowhere to go down low, the shooters kept firing and firing, knowing their jumpers were the team's only hope. That's tough. Heavy legs are certainly a detriment in shooting; minds saddled with the fear of missing might be worse.

We might not generate much low-post scoring from our bigs on a consistent basis this year. But I gotta believe our offensive rebounding and what seems to be improved second-chance scoring is a load off our shooters' minds. Jon and Kyle might be in a long-range slump right now, but I think they're more likely to come out of it knowing that a miss doesn't necessarily mean an empty possession.

I hope so at least.

[UrinalCake]

If anyone looked gassed at the end of that game, it was Clemson, not Duke. Those coaches that think fatigue is a "major issue" for us may not actually be right.

Yeah, even AFTER the game during the post-game press conference, Purnell was lamenting that "we had Duke where we wanted them, they were tired," yet they still lost the game. It appears that other coaches THINK they can beat Duke by wearing us down, but in the process Purnell took his own team out of what they wanted to do. Hopefully this myth about Duke getting tired is one that will continue to be used to our advantage moving forward.

[BD80]

I realize this is nitpicky, but your statement here is is not correct. Harvard is not in the Top-25. They simply received a single Top-25 vote. And I'm not entirely sure why they received that vote, as they're 13-3 with only a win over a bad BC team on their resume.

How dare you interrupt me with facts when I was on a roll! I'll bet you were there picking nits when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!


I don't think most people believe that Coach K has nefarious intentions by not playing the freshmen more. I think that for many the concern is that these players don't get the chance to develop in game situations, and that may put a ceiling on the team's capabilities come tournament time.

I've swayed to both sides of this issue over time, and honestly I'm not sure where I fall now. But I get annoyed when people misrepresent the argument. One can disagree with something Coach K does without (1) thinking Coach K is a bad coach and (2) thinking Coach K has evil intentions.

Ah, reasonable discussion, it almost seems like we should have a separate board for that!

Frankly, I would also like seeing the frosh in more, but I think Coach K sees the game at so many levels deeper than I.

An example: when Nolan picked up two quick fouls, I was thinking that it would be a good spot for Andre (ankle willing). But then I thought about the potential impact on the game if he made a quick turnover or committed a couple of quick fouls. If he turns the ball over, Clemson would then have hounded him mercilessly any time he touched the ball, and we could have been headed toward a blow-out like last year. I believe that Coach K understands the importance of each possession, particularly with respect to momentum and game flow.

I also believe that Coach K wants his best players to be used to making good basketball decisions and plays in games when they have played 35+ minutes. Our best guys will be used to dealing with fatigue and making free throws or inbound passes, making winning plays.

Sorry if I seemed peevish, it was not directed at you. I do get irked at those who attack Coach K. Saying that not playing the frosh an extra 10 minutes out of 200 causes player fatigue at the end of the year is in my mind ridiculous and accusing Coach K of being a poor coach.

Discussing the impact of playing time vs player development is interesting. It would be interesting to get input from the staff on that issue.

[hq2]

I think player development, especially with Andre, is a real issue. He needs to be playing enough that he gets his confidence in his shot back, and feels he can play hard without K pulling him if he makes a mistake. What's going to happen if he doesn't get in games more is that he won't be there when we need him; namely, we will have games where one or more of the S's either shoot badly, get tired, foul out, or some combination thereof. If Andre isn't ready to step up when it matters, those games may be lost, and quite possibly lost in the NCAAs. That's the real issue.

[roywhite]

I think player development, especially with Andre, is a real issue. He needs to be playing enough that he gets his confidence in his shot back, and feels he can play hard without K pulling him if he makes a mistake. What's going to happen if he doesn't get in games more is that he won't be there when we need him; namely, we will have games where one or more of the S's either shoot badly, get tired, foul out, or some combination thereof. If Andre isn't ready to step up when it matters, those games may be lost, and quite possibly lost in the NCAAs. That's the real issue.

Is there someone better than Coach K and his staff to make these decisions about playing time and player development?

[jv001]

For kids this age, mental fatigue is, in my opinion, more likely to cause problems than physical fatigue. Duke gets long TV timeouts throughout the season, but once the NCAAT comes around, the timeouts are absolutely interminable. Those who've been to the NCAAT in person have a better understanding of how ludicrously long tourney timeouts are. So Duke gets a ton of in-game rest. More so over the course of a season, I would suspect, than about 90 percent of the rest of college basketball.

But a tired brain can trick the whole body into feeling sluggish. I thought that's what happened with J.J. against LSU. Sure, Shelden kept us in it with 23 points, but J.J. had the weight of the world on his shoulders that game. And every miss made it heavier and heavier. Just my opinion.

Same thing against West Virginia in 08. With nowhere to go down low, the shooters kept firing and firing, knowing their jumpers were the team's only hope. That's tough. Heavy legs are certainly a detriment in shooting; minds saddled with the fear of missing might be worse.

We might not generate much low-post scoring from our bigs on a consistent basis this year. But I gotta believe our offensive rebounding and what seems to be improved second-chance scoring is a load off our shooters' minds. Jon and Kyle might be in a long-range slump right now, but I think they're more likely to come out of it knowing that a miss doesn't necessarily mean an empty possession.

I hope so at least.

This is a good observation regarding mental fatigue vs. physical fatigue. JJ's case is a good example as Kydevil points out. Another jump shooter who I thought was mentally tired was Langdon. He wasn't terrible shooting the ball against uconn(I think that's right), but he did'nt shoot like he normally did. Kyle became tired only because of the physical play of guarding the big guys. It wasn't the minutes played that made him tired. It was the pounding he took. Looks like we will have this discussion until we have ten players of equal ability. Then maybe we'll see a 10 man rotation. Go Duke!

[tbyers11]

This is a good observation regarding mental fatigue vs. physical fatigue. JJ's case is a good example as Kydevil points out. Another jump shooter who I thought was mentally tired was Langdon. He wasn't terrible shooting the ball against uconn(I think that's right), but he did'nt shoot like he normally did. Kyle became tired only because of the physical play of guarding the big guys. It wasn't the minutes played that made him tired. It was the pounding he took. Looks like we will have this discussion until we have ten players of equal ability. Then maybe we'll see a 10 man rotation. Go Duke!

Overall, I agree that mental fatigue affects jump shooting players (and teams) more than teams who feed the post or drive to the basket alot. The pressure of the career scoring mark and the fact that he knew that the team needed him to score at least 25 because of the dearth of offensive options besides Shelden really did seem to wear on JJ at the end of 2006.

However, Trajan actually shot really well in the 99 NCAA tourney, except for the Mich St national semifinal
7-15 (5-10 3pt) and 6-7 FT for 25 UConn (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990329).
3-9 (1-4 3pt) and 0-1 FT for 7 Mich St (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990327)
6-7 (5-6 3pt) and 6-8 FT for 23 Temple (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990321)
9-14 (4-6 3pt) and 2-2 FT for 24 SW MO St (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990319)
4-9 (2-6 3pt) and 2-2 FT for 12 Tulsa (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990314)

I don't remember him looking mentally beat either, but then again we beat everyone so handily that year (until the Final Four) there wasn't much pressure.

Then again he didn't play in the ACC tourney semis or final or the first round game against FAMU because of an injury suffered against UVa, so maybe the rest helped :D

[DukeUsul]

Overall, I agree that mental fatigue affects jump shooting players (and teams) more than teams who feed the post or drive to the basket alot. The pressure of the career scoring mark and the fact that he knew that the team needed him to score at least 25 because of the dearth of offensive options besides Shelden really did seem to wear on JJ at the end of 2006.

However, Trajan actually shot really well in the 99 NCAA tourney, except for the Mich St national semifinal
7-15 (5-10 3pt) and 6-7 FT for 25 UConn (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990329).
3-9 (1-4 3pt) and 0-1 FT for 7 Mich St (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990327)
6-7 (5-6 3pt) and 6-8 FT for 23 Temple (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990321)
9-14 (4-6 3pt) and 2-2 FT for 24 SW MO St (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990319)
4-9 (2-6 3pt) and 2-2 FT for 12 Tulsa (http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/games/boxscore.php?gameid=19990314)

I don't remember him looking mentally beat either, but then again we beat everyone so handily that year (until the Final Four) there wasn't much pressure.

Then again he didn't play in the ACC tourney semis or final or the first round game against FAMU because of an injury suffered against UVa, so maybe the rest helped :D

Trajan was the only reason we were even competitive in that game (Elton also was solid). Even though he was responsible for the last two turnovers, I can understand K giving him the ball since he was the one who was carrying us.

[Mcluhan]

Trajan was the only reason we were even competitive in that game (Elton also was solid). Even though he was responsible for the last two turnovers, I can understand K giving him the ball since he was the one who was carrying us.

Unfortunately, Avery should have been the one to bring the ball up and make a decision.

[hq2]

To refresh your memory about that game; no he shouldn't have. The Uconn player defending was Ricky Moore, who was William Avery's childhood hero in his hometown. Moore had Avery completely psyched out in that game. There is no way Avery would have gotten a shot off in that situation with Moore guarding him. Langdon was the only option Duke had at that time. Score that for K for recognizing that.

[UrinalCake]

Wow, talk about going off on a tangent. That 99 loss was by far the hardest defeat for me to take in all sports, ever. A good friend of mine was going through a divorce at the time, yet I think he was more upset at the loss.

Getting back on point, I think the experience of the big three should be taken into consideration as well. Playing a senior 38 minutes a game is different from playing a freshman. These guys have been through it before and will be fine.

[concrete]

To refresh your memory about that game; no he shouldn't have. The Uconn player defending was Ricky Moore, who was William Avery's childhood hero in his hometown. Moore had Avery completely psyched out in that game. There is no way Avery would have gotten a shot off in that situation with Moore guarding him. Langdon was the only option Duke had at that time. Score that for K for recognizing that.



are you serious? Cmon, Avery was the PG ...he was the best ball handler and distributor. K should have had faith in his team and let Avery bring the ball up and do what he does best.

I'm not saying Coach made a horrible call, but that's like having Redick bring the ball up and try to create his own shot. That's not the best play call he could have made.

[concrete]

and I'll add this...if Maggette would have played more than 11 minutes...Duke might have won that game. I know shoulda, coulda, woulda...no one else on the floor played well offensively outside of Brand (who was DT'd the entire game) and Langdon. Maggette played well in his limited time and probably was the best talent on the floor

[Duvall]

and I'll add this...if Maggette would have played more than 11 minutes...Duke might have won that game. I know shoulda, coulda, woulda...no one else on the floor played well offensively outside of Brand (who was DT'd the entire game) and Langdon. Maggette played well in his limited time and probably was the best talent on the floor

Is this a new category for the Pocket Reference Guide? "Krzyzewski Koaching Koncerns (Historical)"?

[Verga3]

Since this is a topic that gets discussed in many other threads, I wanted to do some data mining for myself and offer it to the group for discussion in one thread.

I looked at, roughly, the top 10 teams in terms of the following:
-Avg minutes per game by the top 3 (to compare to our top 3)
-# of players averaging 20+ MPG
-# of players averaging 10+ MPG

I tend to side with those who feel the fatigue factor is either not an issue or one more easily remedied by scaling back the intensity during practice. But, I'd never seen the data organized in one place so I thought I'd put it out for discussion.


Team..........Avg Minutes Top 3.....Players Avg 10+ MPG.....Players Averaging 20+ MPG
Duke....................35....................8... ................................4
West Virginia.........32.5.................10.......... ........................5
Gonzaga...............32.2..................7..... .............................5
Pitt......................31.8.................10. .................................7
Kentucky..............31.7...................9.... ..............................5
Syracuse..............29.5...................9.... ...............................7
Kansas State........28.6....................9............ .......................5
Villanova...............28.4....................9. ..................................6
Kansas..................28.2.....................8 .................................6
Michigan State........27.2....................7............ ......................7
Texas....................26.8...................10 ..................................5
Tennessee..............26.1...................11.. ................................5

This is full year data which includes a lot of early season blowouts for each team and doesn't reflect more recent game trends. I've got this data in a spreadsheet if anyone is interested in seeing other cuts or sorts.


I believe Coach K and his assistants have managed games and PT well through the years. Every team's dynamic is different AND you have to coach each game as it unfolds. Our Coach has done pretty well through the years. We shouldn't overthink the PT thing. Who knows where we will land at year-end......too many variables. You can compare any prior season, but here is the data from our National Championship seasons:

...............Top 3 Avg MPG....Avg 10+ MPG....Avg 20+ MPG

90-91..............29.8....................9......... ...........6
91-92..............32.2....................7......... ...........6
00-01..............32.0....................8......... ...........6

[_Gary]

are you serious? Cmon, Avery was the PG ...he was the best ball handler and distributor. K should have had faith in his team and let Avery bring the ball up and do what he does best.

I'm not saying Coach made a horrible call, but that's like having Redick bring the ball up and try to create his own shot. That's not the best play call he could have made.


You're absolutely correct on all accounts. Look, I loved Trajan as much as anyone, but the fact is he was not the best choice to try and dribble upcourt under pressure and get a shot off with only a few seconds left. The ball should have been in Avery's hand at that point. He was easily our best dribbler and he was pretty darned good with those floater shots. I'll never agree with Coach K on that one (God forgive me).

[hq2]

and I'll add this...if Maggette would have played more than 11 minutes...Duke might have won that game. I know shoulda, coulda, woulda...no one else on the floor played well offensively outside of Brand (who was DT'd the entire game) and Langdon. Maggette played well in his limited time and probably was the best talent on the floor

Actually, this post goes to the heart of this year's situation as well. This team is somewhat similar to the '99 team in two ways; they had a deep and strong frontcourt, and the backcourt bench was weak. The '99 backcourt starting running out of gas down the stretch in that game. We need to have Andre playing more minutes in order to avoid the same situation that was faced that year, and so he'll be ready in the close games when we need him.

[Duvall]

The '99 backcourt starting running out of gas down the stretch in that game.

Sure, if by "running out of gas" you mean getting disrupted by the National Defensive Player of the Year.

Come on, people.

[concrete]

Sure, if by "running out of gas" you mean getting disrupted by the National Defensive Player of the Year.

Come on, people.

I agree with this, not your other sly reference above :)

UCONN played great defense. Trajan shot well and Brand was Double Teamed almost the entire game. Avery didn't play great shooting the ball, so i think if Maggette came in for Chris or even Battier more than the 11 minutes, we might have gotten a few more buckets. I'm convinced no one on the floor could guard Maggette...he was a man even as freshmen.

[Jeffrey]

UCONN played great defense. Trajan shot well and Brand was Double Teamed almost the entire game. Avery didn't play great shooting the ball, so i think if Maggette came in for Chris or even Battier more than the 11 minutes, we might have gotten a few more buckets. I'm convinced no one on the floor could guard Maggette...he was a man even as freshmen.

IIRC, the words were f... Magette.

[Jeffrey]

For kids this age, mental fatigue is, in my opinion, more likely to cause problems than physical fatigue.

IMO, that's the fatigue concern.

[Kedsy]

IMO, that's the fatigue concern.

But if the true problem is mental fatigue, will 3 to 5 fewer minutes a game for the top few players do anything at all to help solve that concern?

[concrete]

IIRC, the words were f... Magette.

lol...those words were made in pain and hurt. He's been one of the brightest and consistent pro's that came out of Duke.

[Jeffrey]

But if the true problem is mental fatigue, will 3 to 5 fewer minutes a game for the top few players do anything at all to help solve that concern?

Would feeling more confident that another player (such as Andre) is ready for prime time minutes decrease the pressure they may place on themselves in March?

[Jeffrey]

lol...those words were made in pain and hurt. He's been one of the brightest and consistent pro's that came out of Duke.

I was referencing a different statement.

[sagegrouse]

are you serious? Cmon, Avery was the PG ...he was the best ball handler and distributor. K should have had faith in his team and let Avery bring the ball up and do what he does best.

I'm not saying Coach made a horrible call, but that's like having Redick bring the ball up and try to create his own shot. That's not the best play call he could have made.

This was a really tough lost, inasmuch as I expected Duke to win easily.

My recollection of the game is as follows:

1. UConn got hot early (Moore?) and was up by ten. That, as it turns out, was a game changer.

2. Elton looked like he was triple-teamed and didn't do a good job of passing to the open man.

3. I thought before the final play that Maggette should have been on the court. No one on UConn could guard him (and they still can't). He gets a shot within eight feet, and Brand makes the putback.

4. Trajan should never have kept the ball and tried to make a move. That wasn't what K wanted (and it sure as heck wasn't what I wanted).

5. I continue to be troubled by scuttlebutt about partying the night before the game. I was in bed by eleven on Sunday, and I sure as heck don't see why the entire team wasn't.

6. Tampa-St. Pete is the best setting for the FF I have ever been to. We found some great beaches and islands to explore. Ybor city is a wonderful place to hang out. We went to a baseball game in Sarasota and, if we had gone sooner, could have played golf and booked a fishing trip.

7. Tropicana field is a total joke. Give me the much-maligned Metrodome any day.

8. Florida in early April is an impossible last-minute destination because of the college spring vacations. You really had to take a risk and book flights ahead of time. We didn't and had to drive from DC to Durham to take the Duke charter, which was the worst-planned excursion I have, ever been on.

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Would feeling more confident that another player (such as Andre) is ready for prime time minutes decrease the pressure they may place on themselves in March?

I suppose it's possible, but I doubt it because they see him in practice every day. I think the players have different views of the readiness of their teammates than we do. I don't believe that a few extra minutes of game time would change their minds about Andre's (or any other teammate's) abilities.

[Jeffrey]

I suppose it's possible, but I doubt it because they see him in practice every day. I think the players have different views of the readiness of their teammates than we do. I don't believe that a few extra minutes of game time would change their minds about Andre's (or any other teammate's) abilities.

Do you believe that practice time is the equivalent of game time experience? Do you think the players believe it is?

[camion]

Do you believe that practice time is the equivalent of game time experience? Do you think the players believe it is?

Do you believe that game experience is all that matters and we should throw kids out there who aren't ready?

Oh, and have you stopped beating you wife?




Sometimes the phrasing of a question invites simplistic and misleading responses.

[Kedsy]

Do you believe that practice time is the equivalent of game time experience? Do you think the players believe it is?

I don't think it's the same. I think the players value playing time in the game for themselves much more than playing time in practice. However, I also think when the players think about the skills and readiness of their teammates then practices and games are equivalent, or possibly practice counts even more because in practice they see their teammates perform a larger number of times and for longer periods.

I remember a story I heard back in 1993 or 1994. I heard it second hand, but it originated with one of the players, and the story was whenever Grant Hill took the ball to the hoop in practice, he was always looking over his shoulder for Tony Moore to come over and block his shot. The player who told the story was sure that Tony Moore would soon be playing big minutes and he would be a revelation when it happened.

Of course, Tony Moore never ended up making the rotation for Duke, but your question is what the players believe. And my impression is that with regard to player perception of their teammates, practice performances count as much or more than games, especially when evaluating the guys who don't see a lot of game minutes.

[BlueintheFace]

Also, I do not see any schools pressing to hire Wojo and/or Collins.

hahahahhaaha

You do not see a lot of things. Trust me, that doesn't mean a lot

[hq2]

Response to Camion:

No, but we need them to be ready, so they can do something when it matters.
Getting back to '99; Maggette was an incredible physical talent, but also a very poor decision maker; he had a tendency to put up bad shots and to throw the ball away. He was not someone you wanted with the ball when the game was on the line.

I don't think K wants Andre to have it when the game's on the line. But I do think he needs to be out there enough to give us quality minutes in big games, so that the big three can have the energy left to get it done when it matters. That's what we need. And don't think fatigue in big games doesn't matter; in the '86 title game, Alarie and Henderson were dead tired down the stretch and clanked a lot of shots. That's one reason Duke lost that game.

[Jeffrey]

Do you believe that game experience is all that matters and we should throw kids out there who aren't ready?

Oh, and have you stopped beating you wife?


When did I imply that game experience is all that matters?

When did I say I beat my wife?

[Jeffrey]

I don't think it's the same. I think the players value playing time in the game for themselves much more than playing time in practice. However, I also think when the players think about the skills and readiness of their teammates then practices and games are equivalent, or possibly practice counts even more because in practice they see their teammates perform a larger number of times and for longer periods.

I remember a story I heard back in 1993 or 1994. I heard it second hand, but it originated with one of the players, and the story was whenever Grant Hill took the ball to the hoop in practice, he was always looking over his shoulder for Tony Moore to come over and block his shot. The player who told the story was sure that Tony Moore would soon be playing big minutes and he would be a revelation when it happened.

Of course, Tony Moore never ended up making the rotation for Duke, but your question is what the players believe. And my impression is that with regard to player perception of their teammates, practice performances count as much or more than games, especially when evaluating the guys who don't see a lot of game minutes.

I have a different impression of the value of game time experience. I think it reveals things that practice time may not and is a much better representation of how the player will perform during games.

I run a financial institution that has cash at some locations. We have substantial robbery training, since my primary concern is human safety. We bring in local police officers, with actual weapons, to conduct the training. We ask for volunteers and conduct simulated robberies. Usually, the volunteers perform well even with guns in their faces. Unfortunately, their performance during actual robberies is sometimes completely different.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Response to Camion:

I don't think K wants Andre to have it when the game's on the line.

Andre was in the game late for every lost we had due to his sweet stroke.

[Kedsy]

I have a different impression of the value of game time experience. I think it reveals things that practice time may not and is a much better representation of how the player will perform during games.

I run a financial institution that has cash at some locations. We have substantial robbery training since my primary concern is human safety. We bring in local police officers with actual weapons to conduct the training. We ask for volunteers and conduct simulated robberies. Usually, the volunteers perform well even with guns in their faces. Unfortunately, their performance during actual robberies is sometimes completely different.

There is truth in what you say here. But the question we've been discussing is:


Would feeling more confident that another player (such as Andre) is ready for prime time minutes decrease the pressure they may place on themselves in March?

And for this question, whether you and I think there's a difference between practice and game experience is largely irrelevant. My response to this question is that in my opinion because of what they see in practice, the players would not feel more (or less) confident in Andre if he played a few more game minutes, and thus him playing a few more game minutes now will not reduce the pressure or mental fatigue the other players may feel later.

[CDu]

I have a different impression of the value of game time experience. I think it reveals things that practice time may not and is a much better representation of how the player will perform during games.

I think the bigger difference between practice and game situations is that practice provides a very limited range of matchup scenarios that may not be reflective of game play. This is especially true this year. For example, we can't really create a scenario in which we face three quick guards, because we only have four ACC-level guards in practice (including Curry). And we can't create a situation in which we face two quick bigs, because we only have one (Thomas). Similarly, we can't create the situation where we have a dominant offensive big man, because we don't have one.

Now, I don't know how important that is, but I do think it's a relevant difference.

[Jeffrey]

Would feeling more confident that another player (such as Andre) is ready for prime time minutes decrease the pressure they may place on themselves in March?


And for this question, whether you and I think there's a difference between practice and game experience is largely irrelevant. My response to this question is that in my opinion because of what they see in practice, the players would not feel more (or less) confident in Andre if he played a few more game minutes, and thus him playing a few more game minutes now will not reduce the pressure or mental fatigue the other players may feel later.

I think our key players would be more confident of Andre's ability to succeed during crunch time if they repeatedly saw him doing so. There should be minimal doubt that Andre "is ready for prime time minutes" if Andre repeatedly succeeds during "prime time minutes".

[Kedsy]

I think our key players would be more confident of Andre's ability to succeed during crunch time if they repeatedly saw him doing so.

Possibly. But giving him more crunch time minutes doesn't guarantee that. He's a freshman. What if they saw him tighten up in the clutch a few times? Would their confidence decrease? Would they be more or less likely to trust him than if they'd seen him hit winning shots in practice games but never saw him one way or the other in a real game?

And do you really think this would decrease the big three's mental fatigue at the end of the year?

[Jeffrey]

I think the bigger difference between practice and game situations is that practice provides a very limited range of matchup scenarios that may not be reflective of game play. This is especially true this year. For example, we can't really create a scenario in which we face three quick guards, because we only have four ACC-level guards in practice (including Curry). And we can't create a situation in which we face two quick bigs, because we only have one (Thomas). Similarly, we can't create the situation where we have a dominant offensive big man, because we don't have one.

Now, I don't know how important that is, but I do think it's a relevant difference.

Agreed. I think the differences are many and substantial.

[CDu]

Agreed. I think the differences are many and material.

I agree with that. I don't particularly agree that the differences have any impact on the mental fatigue of the big three though.

I think the more relevant issue is whether or not the difference between practice experience and game experience results in a player who is not prepared if needed in a late-season game.

I definitely don't buy into the "players who average 38 minutes are more fatigued physically/mentally at the end of the year than if they played 33 minutes" argument. I might buy into the "players need more game time to be game-ready come tournament time" argument. But that's a different debate.

[NSDukeFan]

Reading through this thread, I find it amazing how some of our 18-22 year old players happen to all of a sudden get exhausted in the final game we play during the year that results in a loss. They appear to have been fit, healthy, and full of energy until that fateful game. Just an interesting observation. Hopefully it happens just after the championship game this year.

[Jeffrey]

Possibly. But giving him more crunch time minutes doesn't guarantee that. He's a freshman. What if they saw him tighten up in the clutch a few times? Would their confidence decrease? Would they be more or less likely to trust him than if they'd seen him hit winning shots in practice games but never saw him one way or the other in a real game?

IMO, that's why you give him key minutes now and make him an experienced (game and crunch time) freshman by March.


And do you really think this would decrease the big three's mental fatigue at the end of the year?

Yes, all the weight would not be only on their shoulders. Andre would have proven he is ready for prime time.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Agreed. I think the differences are many and substantial.

Really? We are spending all this time discussing the effect of a handful of minutes of game time and the effect on the players?

These are 18 year old kids. When I was 18, I was playing about 4 hours of basketball a day on a regular basis. These kids are in tip-top shape with excellent conditioning programs and have 4 hours of game time a week.

I cannot believe that the difference between 27 minutes a game and 33 minutes a game is going to determine our season...

[pfrduke]

Really? We are spending all this time discussing the effect of a handful of minutes of game time and the effect on the players?

These are 18 year old kids. When I was 18, I was playing about 4 hours of basketball a day on a regular basis. These kids are in tip-top shape with excellent conditioning programs and have 4 hours of game time a week.

I cannot believe that the difference between 27 minutes a game and 33 minutes a game is going to determine our season...

I certainly won't presume to speak for the poster you quote, but my read of his comment was a reference to a difference between practice conditions/performance and game conditions/performance, and saying that the former isn't necessarily a good proxy for the latter.

[Jeffrey]

I certainly won't presume to speak for the poster you quote, but my read of his comment was a reference to a difference between practice conditions/performance and game conditions/performance, and saying that the former isn't necessarily a good proxy for the latter.

Thanks for the accurate clarification.

[camion]

When did I imply that game experience is all that matters?

When did I say I beat my wife?

When did Kedsy imply that practice time is the equivalent of game time experience? When did Kedsy imply the players believe it is?

[Jeffrey]

When did Kedsy imply that practice time is the equivalent of game time experience? When did Kedsy imply the players believe it is?

I think Kedsy and I are communicating effectively and having a very nice discussion. I always enjoy and value Kedsy's opinion.

[hughgs]

I think our key players would be more confident of Andre's ability to succeed during crunch time if they repeatedly saw him doing so. There should be minimal doubt that Andre "is ready for prime time minutes" if Andre repeatedly succeeds during "prime time minutes".

But, isn't there some sort of progression in being confident in someone's abilities? I would first want to be confident that someone could perform in a limited setting. Then, I would want to see how he does in a game situation.

If you agree with the idea of a progression in confidence levels then I can only see two possibilities: either the coaches don't think that Andre is ready for "prime time" or the coaches are stifling his basketball growth.

[Indoor66]

BuIf you agree with the idea of a progression in confidence levels then I can only see two possibilities: either the coaches don't think that Andre is ready for "prime time" or the coaches are stifling his basketball growth.

If you believe the latter, then you should probably find a different program to follow, at least until the present coaching staff is replaced. If you believe it is the former, then that is what we pay the staff to evaluate and decide.

[Jeffrey]

But, isn't there some sort of progression in being confident in someone's abilities? I would first want to be confident that someone could perform in a limited setting. Then, I would want to see how he does in a game situation.

If you agree with the idea of a progression in confidence levels then I can only see two possibilities: either the coaches don't think that Andre is ready for "prime time" or the coaches are stifling his basketball growth.

I "agree with the idea of a progression in confidence levels". As a leader, it's a strong desire I work hard to attain. Unfortunately, there are times when my team experiences unexpected departures (our version of EWill) and I decide to place a rookie in a key position. It's not easy on my team, and we may take a couple losses along the way, but in the long-run our team is stronger and better due to the decision. My only other option is to risk burning out my key team members by placing more and more demands upon them. I've done that before and it's usually been a bad long-term approach.

[hughgs]

If you believe the latter, then you should probably find a different program to follow, at least until the present coaching staff is replaced. If you believe it is the former, then that is what we pay the staff to evaluate and decide.

I hope you're not directing your comment to me.

If you read my post carefully, you'll notice that I only state the two possibilities. I very carefully avoided trying to state my beliefs in this matter.

[hughgs]

I "agree with the idea of a progression in confidence levels". As a leader, it's a strong desire I work hard to attain. Unfortunately, there are times when my team experiences unexpected departures (our version of EWill) and I decide to place a rookie in a key position. It's not easy on my team, and we may take a couple losses along the way, but in the long-run our team is stronger and better due to the decision. My only other option is to risk burning out my key team members by placing more and more demands upon them. I've done that before and it's usually been a bad long-term approach.

While that is one management style there are others. But, in essence you're saying that you believe that the coaching staff is hurting both the team development and the development of key players by not playing Andre during "prime time".

Do you really think that's what the coaching staff is doing?

[Jeffrey]

I hope you're not directing your comment to me.

If you read my post carefully, you'll notice that I only state the two possibilities. I very carefully avoided trying to state my beliefs in this matter.

I feel confident the comment was sent my direction. Indoor66 is a nice guy who makes his comments as kindly as possible.

[Jeffrey]

While that is one management style there are others. But, in essence you're saying that you believe that the coaching staff is hurting both the team development and the development of key players by not playing Andre during "prime time".

Do you really think that's what the coaching staff is doing?

That's not exactly what I'm saying and I disagree with the second piece of your comment. How is the coaching staff hurting "the development of key players by not playing Andre during "prime time" "? Are you currently labeling Andre a "key player"?

I'll stop attempting tact. I believe that K is very bothered by Andre's D and demands substantial improvement in practice before he will start seeing substantial PT. I doubt Andre's D will improve substantially in the next two weeks. I doubt Andre will see a lot of "prime time" before March. If we have guard injuries or foul trouble during single elimination, then we're very exposed. I've been saying it before the season began..... IMO, the loss of EWill was very substantial and puts us in a difficult situation during single elimination. IMO, Andre is our best answer. It appears our much more knowledgeable coaching staff has concluded Andre is not going to be the answer and they're taking their chances with guard injuries or foul trouble during single elimination. IMO, doing such places more pressure on our key players and increases the probability of mental fatigue.

[MarkD83]

I have not read the whole thread, but I beileve it is best to look at the circumstances around the Clemson game which is what is making people "panic" about playing time.

The Clemson game was key to Duke's entire regular season. They needed their first road win and it was against a top 25 team. A loss would hurt team confidence and make a regular season championship and a high NCAA seed difficult to acheive. In addition the biggest key to a deep run in the NCAAs is a high seed.

With that being the background you keep your best three players on the floor as much as possible in critical games. These three players happen to be our perimeter players. In addition Clemson's strength is the front court so that is where you want to substitute players. This all (at least for the Clemson game) made Andre the odd man out. The optimist in me actually sees the Clemson game as a good thing for player development because Ryan Kelly saw playing time in both halves and it is in the frontcourt where Duke needed substitutes.

[MarkD83]

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2010/jan/26/senior-point-guards-the-key/

Just to let you know what the coaching staff is thinking, see the comments in this article that Coach K is resting Singler, Schyer and Smith during practice.

[Hermy-own]

If you believe the latter, then you should probably find a different program to follow, at least until the present coaching staff is replaced. If you believe it is the former, then that is what we pay the staff to evaluate and decide.

IMO, this quote is unnecessarily hostile and inappropriate. It is the classic 'blindly trust the coaching staff or you're just a troller' response. This is a message board, people are allowed to voice their own opinions, and telling someone to stop supporting Duke is going WAY overboard.

On the minutes topic, I subscribe to the group that believes there is a difference between 33 minutes and 40 minutes of playing time. Physically there isn't much difference, but mentally guys like Kyle sometimes feel the need to put the team on their back.

Actually, I'll be honest: I don't know what it was, but last March our stars looked mentally tired, under pressure, and felt the need to carry the team. At least that is how they looked to me. I don't believe our team played 'relaxed' basketball. I don't know whether the minutes were what created that. I don't even know if it's true. But that is how it looked to me over the tv.

I think the knowledge that the team isn't 100% dependent on you, the ability to go to the bench and just unwind for a few minutes a game can really help a player. It also keeps a culture of accountability - if Andre plays well in a game, then he will actually play more minutes. And if one of the big 3 play badly, they may actually player fewer minutes (still 25-30, just fewer).

Obviously the coaching staff is more knowledgeable than me. Obviously they know what they are doing. But this is a message board, and I just voiced my opinion. I welcome comments and criticism.

[pfrduke]

Actually, I'll be honest: I don't know what it was, but last March our stars looked mentally tired, under pressure, and felt the need to carry the team. At least that is how they looked to me. I don't believe our team played 'relaxed' basketball. I don't know whether the minutes were what created that. I don't even know if it's true. But that is how it looked to me over the tv.

How often do losing teams look like they're playing relaxed basketball? I wonder how much our memories of the team looking pressured and mentally tired comes from the enduring memory of the fact that we lost (and, last season especially, didn't look good doing it).

FWIW, I thought we looked super-energized and loose against FSU in the ACC title game; not tight or mentally stressed in any way. That was a game where the team really looked like they were enjoying themselves. I thought we looked frustrated during the Villanova game. I do think we went into a bit of panic mode in that game, but I'm not sure it was because of mental fatigue; I attribute it more to getting our butts roundly kicked.

[Verga3]

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/2010/jan/26/senior-point-guards-the-key/

Just to let you know what the coaching staff is thinking, see the comments in this article that Coach K is resting Singler, Schyer and Smith during practice.

Trust Coach K on PT. He knows more than I do about his team.

[hughgs]

That's not exactly what I'm saying and I disagree with the second piece of your comment. How is the coaching staff hurting "the development of key players by not playing Andre during "prime time" "? Are you currently labeling Andre a "key player"?

My response is a direct commentary on your post. You stated that

"... but in the long-run our team is stronger and better due to the decision. My only other option is to risk burning out my key team members by placing more and more demands upon them. I've done that before and it's usually been a bad long-term approach."

In the context of the discussion Andre is the rookie and Singler, Scheyer, and Smith are the key players. So, not playing Andre doesn't make the team better and hence, your analogy implies that the coaching staff's actions actually hurts the team.


I'll stop attempting tact. I believe that K is very bothered by Andre's D and demands substantial improvement in practice before he will start seeing substantial PT. I doubt Andre's D will improve substantially in the next two weeks. I doubt Andre will see a lot of "prime time" before March. If we have guard injuries or foul trouble during single elimination, then we're very exposed. I've been saying it before the season began..... IMO, the loss of EWill was very substantial and puts us in a difficult situation during single elimination. IMO, Andre is our best answer. It appears our much more knowledgeable coaching staff has concluded Andre is not going to be the answer and they're taking their chances with guard injuries or foul trouble during single elimination. IMO, doing such places more pressure on our key players and increases the probability of mental fatigue.

I don't know why thought this wasn't tactful. I don't necessarily agree with your original premise, but you've laid out a cogent argument which sounds very different than what I originally responded to.

[Hermy-own]

How often do losing teams look like they're playing relaxed basketball? I wonder how much our memories of the team looking pressured and mentally tired comes from the enduring memory of the fact that we lost (and, last season especially, didn't look good doing it).

FWIW, I thought we looked super-energized and loose against FSU in the ACC title game; not tight or mentally stressed in any way. That was a game where the team really looked like they were enjoying themselves. I thought we looked frustrated during the Villanova game. I do think we went into a bit of panic mode in that game, but I'm not sure it was because of mental fatigue; I attribute it more to getting our butts roundly kicked.

Fair point. You are probably right. I'm also very encouraged watching this game.

[Dukeface88]

How often do losing teams look like they're playing relaxed basketball? I wonder how much our memories of the team looking pressured and mentally tired comes from the enduring memory of the fact that we lost (and, last season especially, didn't look good doing it).

FWIW, I thought we looked super-energized and loose against FSU in the ACC title game; not tight or mentally stressed in any way. That was a game where the team really looked like they were enjoying themselves. I thought we looked frustrated during the Villanova game. I do think we went into a bit of panic mode in that game, but I'm not sure it was because of mental fatigue; I attribute it more to getting our butts roundly kicked.

This.

Remember: correlation does not imply causation. You must always consider that the causation is reversed (the team looks tired and stressed because they're losing), or that both are caused by some other factor (the other team may be more athletic than us, which is causing us to both be tired and to lose).

On a side note, I think the team is much better conditioned this year than last. Last year, we tended to jump out to an early lead and then the other team chipped away at it. That generally hasn't happened this year, and several games were very close during the first half where we exploded in the second, something that generally didn't happen last year. I think this is a good indication for fatigue level in March