MBB: Duke-FSU Pregame and In-Game Thread

[sagegrouse]

Here's a thread to post your thoughts for Wednesday's game against Florida State.

I have two questions:

1. Which of the four big men will shine on Wednesday night? It seems like a different one or two each game (kudos to LT for the last game). 7-1 Solomon Alabi is a skilled big man who will make a ton of money in the NBA, and Chris Singleton may be playing even better. Zoubs has been effective against Alabi in the past.

2. Is there any chance that Duke can begin the FSU game with the same offensive and defensive efficiency as in the 2nd half against the Tigers?

sagegrouse

[RoyalBlue08]

In Coach K's comments following the last game, he mentioned how often the ACC season comes down to which team is more rested and ready to go coming into the game. I had never given this much thought before, but hopefully given FSU had to play on Sunday and now has to travel to Durham will give Duke an advantage.

Go Duke!

[RainingThrees]

Zoubs could be a very important factor in this game. Last year he played good defense on Alabi and we need him to do it again. Even if he gets 0 points as long as Alabi can be contained, that is a successful night. On the offensive end, our guards could be affected by FSU's size, Nolan's teardrop is the perfect weapon against opposing bigs. i think Mason is going to get some pt to try to take Alabi to the perimeter and maybe get him in foul trouble.

[pfrduke]

FSU is a tough matchup for a team (like Duke) that has been having some recent struggles placing ball in basket. They're the toughest team in the country in terms of field goal % defense, and have length from the 2 through the 5 (plus starts guys at 3-5 who are taller than ours, one of the only teams where that will be the case). Offensive execution and getting good shots (rather than forced looks) will be a big key.

[camion]

In Coach K's comments following the last game, he mentioned how often the ACC season comes down to which team is more rested and ready to go coming into the game. I had never given this much thought before, but hopefully given FSU had to play on Sunday and now has to travel to Durham will give Duke an advantage.

Go Duke!

Not to look ahead, well okay it is looking ahead, but Georgetown will have 4 days off going into our game Saturday while we will have only two. Is this significant? Maybe, maybe not. Personally I'd rather have the extra two days to prepare and play at home.

[CDu]

FSU plays a bruising style. They rotate four guys who are 6'8" or taller at the 4 and 5 spots and often go with 3 big guys. They'll probably put Singleton and DeMercy on Singler, and have Alabi, Reid, and Gibson rotate at the 4/5 spots (along with some time for Singleton at the 4). On the perimeter, they have a couple of really good shooters (Dulkys and Snaer) and a couple of streaky shooters that can be dangerous when they get hot (Singleton and Kitchen). They don't, however, have a very dynamic offense, as only Kitchen has the ability to beat his man off the dribble.

They are a tall team across the board - Kitchen is the shortest of their regulars at 6'4" - and they play very physically defensively. If FSU has its way, it'll be an ugly game. They like to muck it up inside, where their height and physical style are to their advantage.

We've got a big edge in talent on the perimeter. If our post guys can control their fouls and not get killed on the glass (or with blocked shots), we should be in good shape. If we let their bigs have their way inside or if their outside shooting is on, it could be a tough game.

[DeBlueDevil]

Wow. I don't even know where to start with the importance of the next few games on the outcome of this season for us. The next 3 games (FSU,GTOWN, GT) will prove to be a huge test for our team and I think after these games we will truly know how good of a team we have. All 3 games will not lack a huge dose of physical play and deep down I truly believe this is the toughest stretch of games we have this season. If we can get out of these 3 games with a winning record of 3-0 or 2-1 that would be huge going into the games against BC and UNC. Can we hang in there and grind out 3 wins and ride the momentum the rest of the season? Or will we just get too beat up and have to deal with some tough losses and hope to find ourselves come tourny time?

With that said, we typically play ok against Alibi (spelling). I think that is key to this game. Thankfully we are at home and we tend to play better in our house so we will need to get the fans into the game early and weather the storm because FSU will most likely come out ready to play. In the end, I think if we can get good games out of the 3 S's and the big men continue to be consistent by platoon as they have so far, i see us getting out of this game with a tough W. Personally, I'd love to see the Plumlees have a great game we need them! But we absolutely have to match their toughness or else it may be a long game.

[jv001]

I hope to see our guys going to the free throw line more. As physical as FSU plays this might be the game that sees us getting some calls to go our way. Jon and Kyle have been mugged on a few occasions and we've had some ticky tack fouls called on us. I think we also see Jon come out of his shooting slump this game. Just got a feeling. Go Duke!

[duke4life32182]

Duke wins 82-70. They may have us in size, but that leads to us having more speed. Look for Nolan to have a big night and I think this is the game that Singler gets out of his funk. Go Duke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wait a sec - isn't this game at home? Duke is one of the best, if not the best, team at home this year. Perfect record. With crazies bored with not having a home game in a week and a half, they'll be pumped. I think the more important question is if FSU can match up the intensity of the crazies rather than if Duke's bigs can match with FSU's. I really think this will be a crazy game from the home front.

P.S. There is an awful, awful, awful looking movie coming out called 'The Crazies'. It's a remake. The few times I saw it I chuckled - thought of our crazies. They should have cast them in the movie - would have made it more appealling...

[Kedsy]

I think the fact that Florida State is so big and are used to being so much bigger than their opponents will help Duke. We're pretty much the same size as them, so their height doesn't give them the advantage they're used to, and not having that advantage could make them feel a little off-balance. I'm hoping that plus playing at Cameron might knock them back a bit at the beginning of the game. I'd much rather play a team like this than a small team that spreads the floor with four-out, one-in.

I'm looking for a big game from Kyle, as he gets to play against a bigger player and not the small, quick ones that seem to give him trouble.

On the other hand, I have an uneasy feeling about surprising performances from Michael Snaer and/or Xavier Gibson. Don't ask me why.

[roywhite]

I'm an optimist, but I think Duke wins this by a good margin. Get the lead early and FSU doesn't have the scoring punch to catch up IMO. Toney Douglas was a big-time scorer who didn't mind the pressure of playing in Cameron---don't think they have anybody like him now.

[MChambers]

I think the fact that Florida State is so big and are used to being so much bigger than their opponents will help Duke. We're pretty much the same size as them, so their height doesn't give them the advantage they're used to, and not having that advantage could make them feel a little off-balance. I'm hoping that plus playing at Cameron might knock them back a bit at the beginning of the game. I'd much rather play a team like this than a small team that spreads the floor with four-out, one-in.

I'm looking for a big game from Kyle, as he gets to play against a bigger player and not the small, quick ones that seem to give him trouble.

On the other hand, I have an uneasy feeling about surprising performances from Michael Snaer and/or Xavier Gibson. Don't ask me why.
At least about height. According to Pomeroy, Duke is #2 in Average Height and #8 in Effective Height, and FSU is #1 and #10 in these categories. (There are a lot of big teams in the ACC this year, BTW.)

From the little bit I've seen or heard, Gibson seems to make a lot of bonehead plays, but Snaer seems very talented.

[pfrduke]

Toney Douglas was a big-time scorer who didn't mind the pressure of playing in Cameron---don't think they have anybody like him now.

This is a good game for Duke to amp up the pressure on D a little bit. Kitchen is, I think, the only player on the roster with more assists than turnovers in ACC play, and FSU has had real turnover problems this year - in five conference games, they've turned it over more than 25% of their possessions 3 times, two of those being more than 30% of their possessions. On the season as a whole, they've had 10 of 19 games with more than 25% turnovers, and another 3 with more than 20%. Forcing turnovers and getting points in transition will be key to counteracting their half court defense, which is very good.

[SilkyJ]

I'm an optimist, but I think Duke wins this by a good margin. Get the lead early and FSU doesn't have the scoring punch to catch up IMO. Toney Douglas was a big-time scorer who didn't mind the pressure of playing in Cameron---don't think they have anybody like him now.

I find it so hard to try and predict games like this. This may be obvious, but its all about which Duke shows up: the one that guarded Tracy Smith and State or the one that guarded Clemson/Connecticut.

Its a wonder to me that we could shutdown UConn's big, athletic frontline and then give up all those point to an undersized state team...or at least a State team that was smaller than us.

I just want to see more progress out of MP1/2. Them playing well in March is the difference between Sweet 16 and FF, imo.

[jv001]

Something I would like to see from the Crazies against Fl ST. is for them to be Louddddddddddddddddddddd!.Concentrate on being loud more so than being creative. Everyone knows how clever our fans are, but I like it when they are loud from the tip off until the final horn sounds. I know Coach K has addressed this as well. When the Crazies are bringing their best game, the players feed off this. Wednesday's game would be a good start for our wild and crazy fans to really bring it. Go Duke!

[Bob Green]

We need to breakout of our 3-point shooting slump. Earlier in the year, we were shooting over 40% from behing the arc but we shot ~25% over the past five games. Knocking down some 3-pointers will be a key factor against the Seminoles.

[CDu]

I find it so hard to try and predict games like this. This may be obvious, but its all about which Duke shows up: the one that guarded Tracy Smith and State or the one that guarded Clemson/Connecticut.

Its a wonder to me that we could shutdown UConn's big, athletic frontline and then give up all those point to an undersized state team...or at least a State team that was smaller than us.

I think this had less to do with the size and more to do with the skillsets. NC State was able to spread the floor with shooters AND had two guards who could beat our guards off the dribble AND had a very talented big man. And they hit a ton of jumpshots. UConn didn't have anybody inside who could score, and they couldn't hit any shots. Clemson had one awesome player, but didn't have the perimeter threats to stretch the defense.

I think our team will do pretty well against teams that are big and like to crowd the lane. That's where the strength of our team lies - in our size. I think that, relatively speaking, we'll have trouble against teams that spread the floor and attack off the dribble and hit the 3s (think Villanova), because three of our bigs aren't great on-ball defenders, and aren't great at rotating from the perimeter to the post. In this case, we miss being able to play Singler at the 4 and Thomas at the 5, because they're better/more versatile defenders than the Plumlees (at least right now) and Zoubek.


I just want to see more progress out of MP1/2. Them playing well in March is the difference between Sweet 16 and FF, imo.

I agree. I think this team can do damage as is, but we'll be a lot better off if at least one and possibly both of the Plumlees to step up. As I said before, I think teams like Villanova and Texas give us matchup problems by spreading the floor. To combat that, we need to create matchup problems for them. And the key to that will be having guys like the Plumlees (who have higher ceilings than Thomas and Zoubek) to succeed. In other words, we need our mismatch advantages to outweigh the opponents' mismatch advantages.

[jv001]

I think this had less to do with the size and more to do with the skillsets. NC State was able to spread the floor with shooters AND had two guards who could beat our guards off the dribble AND had a very talented big man. And they hit a ton of jumpshots. UConn didn't have anybody inside who could score, and they couldn't hit any shots. Clemson had one awesome player, but didn't have the perimeter threats to stretch the defense.

I think our team will do pretty well against teams that are big and like to crowd the lane. That's where the strength of our team lies - in our size. I think that, relatively speaking, we'll have trouble against teams that spread the floor and attack off the dribble and hit the 3s (think Villanova), because three of our bigs aren't great on-ball defenders, and aren't great at rotating from the perimeter to the post. In this case, we miss being able to play Singler at the 4 and Thomas at the 5, because they're better/more versatile defenders than the Plumlees (at least right now) and Zoubek.



Have to agree that teams with good guard play give us trouble. Clemson and Uconn did not have that. Villanova, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse could give us big problems. But they could give most teams problems. The help defense will have to be very good for us to beat teams like those. The ACC does not have as many great guards this year. Thank God. So I think we win the ACC but could struggle in the NCAA tourney with a bad match up. Go Duke!

[lpd1982]

I have been watching waaay too much college basketball lately and I find it unsettling how differently each game is callled. And if it is hard for me to get in the flow of what's what, imagine how hard it must be for the players to figure out the rythm of each and every game. Fast whistles and everyone's in foul trouble and that could be tough for us on Wednesday. If the refs are letting the game reach its own level and we don't play tough at the outset, we could get behind. When the refs are even handed we seem to do best.

Not only within the ACC, but even from one of our games to the next the refs decision-making seems quite variable. Not whining, just saying inconsistant calls appear to me to be a factor in wins and losses and how we play as a team. Predicting a win and a big, loud, enthusiastic crowd.

And I meant 'affect'

[Hermy-own]

Have to agree that teams with good guard play give us trouble. Clemson and Uconn did not have that. Villanova, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse could give us big problems. But they could give most teams problems. The help defense will have to be very good for us to beat teams like those. The ACC does not have as many great guards this year. Thank God. So I think we win the ACC but could struggle in the NCAA tourney with a bad match up. Go Duke!

Personally, I think it is the presence of a versatile big man that gives us trouble. UConn's guards do have trouble with outside shooting, but they can certainly penetrate, which is our weakness. But whenever they went to the hoop, our big men swallowed them up. NC State was able to spread the court more, open up driving lanes, and run isolations for Smith down low. All because they could bring their 4 to the outside, and we had to guard his shot. I might be wrong about that analysis, but that is my theory.

In this game I look forward to a good game from Singler. His favorite move appears to be the drive to the lane, with a shot about 5-8 ft away. He should have more success getting by defenders his size, and I hope he can draw more fouls too. That is an area where he can really step up.

I also look forward to tough play by the Plumlee brothers. I would love to see an offensive explosion by them. There is no reason to expect one, but if they came to play against WF, they might against FSU as well. As posters above have said, our teams' ceiling is almost completely dependent upon them.

[Kedsy]

I think this had less to do with the size and more to do with the skillsets. NC State was able to spread the floor with shooters AND had two guards who could beat our guards off the dribble AND had a very talented big man. And they hit a ton of jumpshots. UConn didn't have anybody inside who could score, and they couldn't hit any shots. Clemson had one awesome player, but didn't have the perimeter threats to stretch the defense.


Personally, I think it is the presence of a versatile big man that gives us trouble. UConn's guards do have trouble with outside shooting, but they can certainly penetrate, which is our weakness. But whenever they went to the hoop, our big men swallowed them up. NC State was able to spread the court more, open up driving lanes, and run isolations for Smith down low. All because they could bring their 4 to the outside, and we had to guard his shot. I might be wrong about that analysis, but that is my theory.



Have to agree that teams with good guard play give us trouble. Clemson and Uconn did not have that. Villanova, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse could give us big problems. But they could give most teams problems. The help defense will have to be very good for us to beat teams like those. The ACC does not have as many great guards this year. Thank God. So I think we win the ACC but could struggle in the NCAA tourney with a bad match up. Go Duke!

I disagree that "good guard play" gives us trouble; nor do I think stopping guards who can penetrate is our weakness. Instead agree with CDu and with Hermy-own's other theory. UConn has outstanding, very quick guards, although they don't happen to shoot all that well. We have played a lot of teams with good or great guards and done fine against them. Conversely, in my opinion neither State's guards nor Wisconsin's guards were the best we've played against. But they had a lot of success due to the offensive style they played.

What appears to bother us is a four-out, one-in set, like Villanova, Wisconsin, and NC State all ran against us. Of course, to run such a set you need a couple of quick guards who can break down a defender one-on-one and you need one or two good shooting wings and also a hard-to-handle force down low.

Having explained all that, I want to give credit to CDu who first brought up this theory. I have given it some thought and I am totally on board with it. It explains so much that seemed mysterious before.



In this game I look forward to a good game from Singler. His favorite move appears to be the drive to the lane, with a shot about 5-8 ft away. He should have more success getting by defenders his size, and I hope he can draw more fouls too. That is an area where he can really step up.

I also look forward to tough play by the Plumlee brothers. I would love to see an offensive explosion by them. There is no reason to expect one, but if they came to play against WF, they might against FSU as well. As posters above have said, our teams' ceiling is almost completely dependent upon them.

I agree Singler should have a good game being guarded by someone his size. I agree it would be nice to see both Plumlees take another big step forward. Not sure I agree our ceiling is "almost completely dependent" on them, however, especially with regards to their offense. All I'd like to see is MP1 and especially MP2 playing good enough defense to stay on the floor for 15 or 20 minutes, and have them pick up a few offensive putbacks and alley-oop buckets. If that happens our ceiling is plenty high. Even if it doesn't, I think it's pretty high.

[weezie]

OT, but it's typical of Gtown to cave in their game immediately before they play us.
JT3 is one dope of a coach.

[sagegrouse]

FSU will be the only team Duke plays all season when we don't have a size advantage. It will be an interesting test for the Devils.

I suppose we will start with Miles on Alabi and LT on Singleton. Zoubs will clearly play Alabi when he is in the game, which should be early and often, given his past success.

I will be interested in seeing if our shooting returns. It would be great to see Kyle have a breakout game.

sagegrouse

Thoughts?

[concrete]

I think we will have a good game. There will be a generous rotation administered by Coach K and I see Dawkin and Kelly being productive in about 10 min each. Stellar defense by Zoubek and solid outing by LT will result in a W for Duke.

[ScreechTDX1847]

I just scored some tickets to the game :cool:

[sagegrouse]

Or some such.... C'mon guys and gals. At least keep this thread on the first page. This is the only opponent we need to worry about now.

The game is tonight. FSU is inherently dangerous. It looks like our fan base is totally distracted by UNC and UKy. I hope our team isn't.

I am looking for a breakout game by Singler. I have been impressed with his effort and team play all year but not his offensive efficiency. He and Scheyer got tagged for a bunch of TOs in the first half against Clemson, but they were near-perfect after intermission.

It will also be interesting to see if anyone on the FSU team can match up with Nolan.

sagegrouse
'Not surprised by the Clemson slide against BC, esp. w/o Demontez Stitt. This is a classic feast-or-famine team, depending on whether the supporting cast provides punch'

[le_modeliste]

It seems that Nolan's grandfather passed away in the last few days. :(

[94duke]

Or some such.... C'mon guys and gals. At least keep this thread on the first page. This is the only opponent we need to worry about now.

The game is tonight. FSU is inherently dangerous. It looks like our fan base is totally distracted by UNC and UKy. I hope our team isn't.

I am looking for a breakout game by Singler. I have been impressed with his effort and team play all year but not his offensive efficiency. He and Scheyer got tagged for a bunch of TOs in the first half against Clemson, but they were near-perfect after intermission.

It will also be interesting to see if anyone on the FSU team can match up with Nolan.

sagegrouse
'Not surprised by the Clemson slide against BC, esp. w/o Demontez Stitt. This is a classic feast-or-famine team, depending on whether the supporting cast provides punch'

Thanks for bringing this thread back to the top! Seriously, it's game night!

Our frontcourt will have its hands full tonight. The FSU bigs are solid.
Hopefully Earth, Wind, and Scheyer will be the difference in a Duke W!

[JDev]

I think it will help Duke that FSU's main defensive players and shotblockers are likely to be matched up on players that Duke does not typically rely on for scoring. Duke gets the vast majority of its points from the perimeter trio, and FSU's weakness is their guard play. Alabi and Singleton will be matched up on Lance and Miles to start, and with Mason and Zoubek as well. Duke obviously is much better when there is production from the bigs, but the main scorers will always be those perimeter guys.

[CDu]

I think we will have a good game. There will be a generous rotation administered by Coach K and I see Dawkin and Kelly being productive in about 10 min each. Stellar defense by Zoubek and solid outing by LT will result in a W for Duke.

I have trouble seeing Kelly get 10 minutes in this game. I see 3-5 for him. Dawkins I can see getting 8-12 minutes.

I think we match up well with FSU, so long as we don't get killed on the glass and they don't have an otherwordly shooting effort by their streaky perimeter shooters.

They'll make this a low-scoring dogfight if they can, because they don't have the offensive weapons to beat us in a high-scoring game. But if we can rebound well and create offense well (would help to turn them over because their bigs will clog the lane) we should be okay.

Scheyer has been (relatively) quiet of late. It'd be nice to see a bounce back game from him. It'd be nice if the Plumlees came up bigger as well.

[sagegrouse]

I have trouble seeing Kelly get 10 minutes in this game. I see 3-5 for him. Dawkins I can see getting 8-12 minutes.



Ryan Kelly has been getting on the court by the middle of the first half but not booking a lot of minutes. It is almost like K is saying, "Here's your chance, Ryan. Show us what you can do." I am an optimist -- one of these games it is going to click into place. Maybe tonight with a larger, less mobile player guarding him.

WRT to Andre's PT, I am just a bit confused. He looks good in spots and at times looks lost. He will get more court time as the year progresses, I believe. Tonight could be a good chance, in that he will probably be a lot quicker than the player guarding him.

sagegrouse

[duke4life32182]

I'll stick with my original prediction that tonight is when we see Singler start to put 2 and 2 together. The last few games he has had smaller people on him and has been driving to the basket. Look for his perimeter game and mid range game to be effective tonight. I look for him to have 20-25 pts on around 60% shooting with 8-10 boards. We need to amp our defense up and make them feel the pressure. The crazies will be rocking tonight. It'll be awesome baby with a capital A.

[CDu]

I will second sagegrouse's point earlier. I think it's frustrating that people are more interested in talking about UNC's win and UK's loss than our upcoming game.

[Duvall]

I think it's frustrating that people are more interested in talking about UNC's win and UK's loss than our upcoming game.

To be fair, those games have actually happened.

[superdave]

Two questions - do we make FSU's guards beat us with jumpers by packing the lane and letting Jon and Nolan play tough D? Could be a lot of rebounds for Kyle tonight coming from the wing.

And as other alluded to, Duke struggles against teams that empty the lane and put one big in the post - spread offense I guess. What works against that? It seems like we've had success with our rotations and switching.

[CDu]

Two questions - do we make FSU's guards beat us with jumpers by packing the lane and letting Jon and Nolan play tough D? Could be a lot of rebounds for Kyle tonight coming from the wing.

And as other alluded to, Duke struggles against teams that empty the lane and put one big in the post - spread offense I guess. What works against that? It seems like we've had success with our rotations and switching.

It's possible, although I suspect we'll try to play tight man-to-man defense at all the positions. We're a good rebounding team, and it's not like FSU is very quick/explosive around the basket. I'd be concerned about sagging off of streaky shooters and allowing them to get hot and gain confidence.

As for the "spread offense," I'm not sure that we've yet seen what works against it (at least not from Duke). We struggled against Villanova, we struggled against Wisconsin, and we struggled against NC State. The interesting thing is that our approach against Villanova was much different than our approach against Wisconsin and State, because we had such different personnel.

[brickey]

I will second sagegrouse's point earlier. I think it's frustrating that people are more interested in talking about UNC's win and UK's loss than our upcoming game.

Guilty as charged. Not sure why you're frustrated, though, as I'm not sure posting activity and interest levels correlate 1:1.

Color me foolish, but I'm just not as worried about this game as I was about our games at Clemson and State. The State game was a classic trap game, a game against an underrated opponent prior to our trip to Littlejohn (against perhaps an overrated one?). In this case, I'm not especially worried about K letting the team overlook another ACC game, against a very strong opponent no less, in favor of a high-profile out-of-conference game this weekend.

I admit, I haven't seen FSU play this year, but from what I've gleaned from kenpom.com, it looks like we match up pretty well with them as a whole. Kenpom currently rates us 1st in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency, while FSU rates 100th and 2nd, respectively. FSU's defensive rating (2nd) suggests that FSU will be the stoutest test our offense has faced thus far, but a handful of more-detailed kenpom stats temper my concern (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida%20St.):


1) As noted earlier in this thread, FSU really likes to pack it in on D, hence opponents' 37.3% fg% against on 2-pt buckets (ranks 1st nationally) and FSU's 19.1% block percentage. They also defend the FT line really well (opponents shoot only 62.3% from the stripe), which I'm not sure how to interpret, unless shooters are somehow distracted by Alabi's large dome parked just under the rim. FSU defends the three comparatively poorly (3-pt % against ranks 102nd). Despite recent shooting slumps from JS and KS, as a team, we're neither afraid nor incapable of making it rain from outside.

2) FSU's defense also generates a lot of steals (ranks 30th), which I presume generates a fair amount of offense for them. Fortunately, our handle is about as good as it gets (ranks 16th), unless we're playing State of course.

3) FSU's defensive rebounding is surprisingly poor -- opponents' offensive rebounding against (34.0% of opportunities) currently ranks 215th. Currently we rank 11th nationally in off. reb. %.

Of course, there's the other side of the court to worry about, but I think we tend to avoid lapses in defensive intensity better at home than we do on the road.

And with respect to individual match-ups, I'm with Hermy-own, Kedsy, et al, and expecting big things from KS this game. I also think having extra fouls to give inside will help; IIRC, foul trouble played prominently in at least one of our recent home losses to FSU.

I expect Robinson's kids will be highly motivated, well prepared, and undaunted by Cameron, and frankly no outcome in an ACC game would really surprise me at this point, but I think we have the tools and will to win this one.

[roywhite]

Not to be a "downer" here, but the 7:00 ESPN game preceeding our 9:00 game is Notre Dame vs Villanova, which to my mind has:

A high possibility of a physical, whistle-filled game which runs long
Which in turn leads me to start cussing out the Worldwide Leader for cutting out part of our game

Perhaps the Bristol folks will utilize ESPN News or one of their other spill-over channels.

[CDu]

Guilty as charged. Not sure why you're frustrated, though, as I'm not sure posting activity and interest levels correlate 1:1.

Color me foolish, but I'm just not as worried about this game as I was about our games at Clemson and State. The State game was a classic trap game, a game against an underrated opponent prior to our trip to Littlejohn (against perhaps an overrated one?). In this case, I'm not especially worried about K letting the team overlook another ACC game, against a very strong opponent no less, in favor of a high-profile out-of-conference game this weekend.

I admit, I haven't seen FSU play this year, but from what I've gleaned from kenpom.com, it looks like we match up pretty well with them as a whole. Kenpom currently rates us 1st in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency, while FSU rates 100th and 2nd, respectively. FSU's defensive rating (2nd) suggests that FSU will be the stoutest test our offense has faced thus far, but a handful of more-detailed kenpom stats temper my concern (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Florida%20St.):


1) As noted earlier in this thread, FSU really likes to pack it in on D, hence opponents' 37.3% fg% against on 2-pt buckets (ranks 1st nationally) and FSU's 19.1% block percentage. They also defend the FT line really well (opponents shoot only 62.3% from the stripe), which I'm not sure how to interpret, unless shooters are somehow distracted by Alabi's large dome parked just under the rim. FSU defends the three comparatively poorly (3-pt % against ranks 102nd). Despite recent shooting slumps from JS and KS, as a team, we're neither afraid nor incapable of making it rain from outside.

2) FSU's defense also generates a lot of steals (ranks 30th), which I presume generates a fair amount of offense for them. Fortunately, our handle is about as good as it gets (ranks 16th), unless we're playing State of course.

3) FSU's defensive rebounding is surprisingly poor -- opponents' offensive rebounding against (34.0% of opportunities) currently ranks 215th. Currently we rank 11th nationally in off. reb. %.

Of course, there's the other side of the court to worry about, but I think we tend to avoid lapses in defensive intensity better at home than we do on the road.

And with respect to individual match-ups, I'm with Hermy-own, Kedsy, et al, and expecting big things from KS this game. I also think having extra fouls to give inside will help; IIRC, foul trouble played prominently in at least one of our recent home losses to FSU.

I expect Robinson's kids will be highly motivated, well prepared, and undaunted by Cameron, and frankly no outcome in an ACC game would really surprise me at this point, but I think we have the tools and will to win this one.

Frustrated was probably too harsh a word. Sorry about that.

I agree with this analysis. I think we match up fairly well against them. The biggest danger I see is that if we're not hitting our threes and they are, it could get really interesting.

[mgtr]

I am worried about this game. However, I am worried before every Duke game -- even the exhibitions. OK, well, not the exhibitions. However, remember VCU -- we could (and maybe did) overlook them, and they bit us.
I think that once the ACC season begins, anything can happen. Example we all know, look at the records of UNC and UVa. Who would have guessed?
I think we have a good team, and this is a game we should win, but I am still worried.
My wife always says she hopes the game is close. Not me, I want a blowout (by us!) every game. We probably won't have many more of those this season, however.

[blueprofessor]

.

And with respect to individual match-ups, I'm with Hermy-own, Kedsy, et al, and expecting big things from KS this game. I also think having extra fouls to give inside will help; IIRC, foul trouble played prominently in at least one of our recent home losses to FSU.

I expect Robinson's kids will be highly motivated, well prepared, and undaunted by Cameron, and frankly no outcome in an ACC game would really surprise me at this point, but I think we have the tools and will to win this one.

Brickey is valiantly attempting to add another advantage for Duke tonight by restoring FSU's former coach (Robinson) in the place of that defensive maven Leonard Hamilton!
Nice try,brickey.
Best to all and to the Blue Devils in tonight's Ryan Reid-led rumble.
Blue Prof:):(

[moonpie23]

i don't stop worrying till the clock says triple-ought and we're ahead...

[airowe]

Let's go Duke!

I'd really like to see us put up a lot of points tonight. Hopefully we can force our tempo on F$U and get some easy points before their bigs get set.

My fearless prediction: 86 - 68.

[I_am_a_Blue_Devil]

I am really hoping to see Andre get into double digit points tonight. I agree with some other threads that having him play well and be a usable option will be a necessity come touney time if we want to survive and advance.

[Saratoga2]

We used Mason to help pressure the ball as it was brought in. He then rapidlly went down the floor and into a defensive position when the pressure didn't result in a turnover. I thought that approach has been highly ineffectie and has resulted in Mason being beat to a spot near the basket and also leaving him out of position. I would prefer dropping the pressure in favor of letting our big getting down the floor and in position to make his best defensive play.

[Cameron]

Could this Nova game being going any slower? Thank god we don't play on the deuce tonight, as the OK State game is just breaking now. That game won't end until 9:30.

I hate this scheduling by ESPN, but I'm typing against a losing battle here.

[91devil]

Really dislike following Big East games on ESPN!

This NOVA - ND game is running looooooong. I bet we miss the first five minutes of our game.

[Newton_14]

Bad news guys. The Nova/ND game is the one in front of our game and it is a foul fest. 24 fouls in the first half. The 2nd half just started and 4 more fouls have already been called. 17:35 to go and the game is close. Ugh.

Once we get to see our game, I am hoping for a bounce back game for Mason and Andre to go with a strong performance from the Big 3. We need all hands on deck playing well tonight.

Go Duke

[Cameron]

Looks like we all had the same thought at the same time. Screeeww ESPN.

[Newton_14]

Looks like we all had the same thought at the same time. Screeeww ESPN.

Yeah we did.....

2 hours is just not enough. (Beating head against wall) Hopefully they hold our tip until 9:10 or something.



And Bilas just said Taylor King is one of the best reserves in the country. Uh Ok Jay, if you say so. Or did the little voice in your ear tell you to say that? I like Taylor but that statement is quite the stretch imo

[-jk]

Yeah we did.....

2 hours is just not enough. (Beating head against wall) Hopefully they hold our tip until 9:10 or something.



And Bilas just said Taylor King is one of the best reserves in the country. Uh Ok Jay, if you say so. Or did the little voice in your ear tell you to say that? I like Taylor but that statement is quite the stretch imo

They won't hold the tip. Sorry.

-jk

[Cameron]

How come? They've held tips in the past. Many of times. At least by nine, 10 minutes.. But maybe those are just for marque matchups such as Maryland and Carolina.

[Duvall]

How come? They've held tips in the past. Many of times.

Why would we want them to hold the tip? It's already a late start.

[91devil]

They will probably hold it to about 907pm or so. I expect one of the upcoming breaks will show some of the shoot around with a clock showing time until tip.

Even with that delay, though, I expect us to miss the first few minutes of the game.

[Cameron]

Why would we want them to hold the tip? It's already a late start.


To watch them.

But life will go on I suppose if we miss a few minutes.

[riverside6]

you can follow live tempo-based stats for Duke/FSU here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/ViewHDGame.asp?hSchedule=3785

Starting lineups are now posted, and there are no surprises for either team.

[Duvall]

To watch them.


Well, yeah. But I think the team will be better off if the game tips on time, both tonight and on Saturday.

[diveonthefloor]

We need to breakout of our 3-point shooting slump. Earlier in the year, we were shooting over 40% from behing the arc but we shot ~25% over the past five games. Knocking down some 3-pointers will be a key factor against the Seminoles.

I was going to post the same thing and agree 100%....
We need to get open looks for Jon, Nolan, Kyle (and Andre?)....whether this is by effective ball screens, back screens, or drive and dishes....
We have not done a good job at getting open looks for 3 in the past few weeks.

[-jk]

Why would we want them to hold the tip? It's already a late start.

Amen. (And it's a long drive home to MD after the game...)

-jk

[91devil]

Okay, 910pm start. No whistles, no whammies, no stops!

[slower]

You're down by 20 points. Quit pressuring the inbounds pass and just let the freaking clock run out!

[striker219]

You're down by 20 points. Quit pressuring the inbounds pass and just let the freaking clock run out!

I love this post. By itself, nothing special. But just below your name? Perfect.

[Duvall]

Dawkins!

[superdave]

Who needed that one more, Andre or the posters on this board!?

[pfrduke]

Related to the (now-closed) Zoubek dunking thread, he's had two plays close to the rim so far tonight where he's converted layups through nifty post play where, if he tried to power it up for a dunk on first move, he'd have been blocked (or at best fouled).

[slower]

I love this post. By itself, nothing special. But just below your name? Perfect.

Who/What is "nickel nose"?

[-jk]

Who/What is "nickel nose"?

Pure, old school evil.

-jk

[Duvall]

Who/What is "nickel nose"?

The Great Enemy.

[slower]

Pure, old school evil.

-jk

El Deano?

[davekay1971]

Classic example of different personnel being a better fit for one game than for another. Dawkins: probably would have struggled against Clemson's press and wouldn't have had much chance to find an outside look...but against Fl State he's more able to contribute.

Still, nice to see him on the floor and playing.

[Cameron]

Who needed that one more, Andre or the posters on this board!?


I'm going with the posters on this board, lol. I know my heart skipped a beat when that tear drop was on its way down. Biggest shot of the night so far. I felt like I won a gold medal or something when it fell.

[DevilHorns]

Nolan Smith is taking a page from D Wade when it comes to those off the glass touches.

I absolutely cringe when any other player attempts a shot like that. But when its Nolan, I can sit relaxed, and enjoy my beer.

[Indoor66]

MOTM so far is Lance, without doubt.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

MOTM so far is Lance, without doubt.

I would actually go with Jon or Nolan. But i respect your opinion.

[roywhite]

Shulman, Vitale, and the ever present ESPN graphics are diving me nuts, but solid effort by the team. Let's start strong in the 2nd half and put this game away.

[superdave]

Our D at the beginning seemed to get FSU off their rhythm, or rather never allowed them to establish it. But we had a few breakdowns when we had switches on the perimeter.

We aint getting much from the Plums tonight offensively. Although Mason had a nice dish. Would love to see us feed the post and let someone go at Alabi just to take his temperature!

[DevilHorns]

Miles with the Fbomb!

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Miles with the Fbomb!

He's bleeding from the head so it's ok.

[DevilHorns]

He's bleeding from the head so it's ok.

Well obviously its ok. Its just funny how the camera caught that for the 2 seconds on him.

[DevilHorns]

Wow Zoubek got a charge?!??!? These refs may be paying attention for a change.

[pfrduke]

Related to the (now-closed) Zoubek dunking thread, he's had two plays close to the rim so far tonight where he's converted layups through nifty post play where, if he tried to power it up for a dunk on first move, he'd have been blocked (or at best fouled).

And, admittedly, Solomon Alabi missed a bunny layup where going up and dunking would have been the easier play.

[PSurprise]

Wow Zoubek got a charge?!??!? These refs may be paying attention for a change.

Of all of the bad calls on Zoubek, that call was quite bad as well. He was easily moving...Oh well, one makeup call for the 100s of bad ones on the big guy.

[FireOgilvie]

Singler would be a great boxer... it's impossible to knock him out.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Singler would be a great boxer... it's impossible to knock him out.

But he did get Knock down.

[duke09hms]

we're winning, but we're still taking too many 3s

does not bode well for the tournament . . . what happens when they don't fall and we're not experienced in forcing it into the post

[davekay1971]

Love Scheyer making FSU look like the Keystone cops.

Nice to see Singler finding his range.

Speaking of boxing, I think Plumlee was over on the bench saying, "Cut me, Mick..."

[davekay1971]

we're winning, but we're still taking too many 3s

does not bode well for the tournament . . . what happens when they don't fall and we're not experienced in forcing it into the post

Good God. We're playing a team with a GREAT front line, so we're using our superiority on the perimeter to win. I guess we should be forcing it into Zoubs and Thomas so they can practice having their shots blocked by Alabi. Fantastic idea. Alert Coach K.

[davekay1971]

OK...now we are doing too much sitting back and launching 3s. Looks like K thought so, too.

[duke09hms]

Good God. We're playing a team with a GREAT front line, so we're using our superiority on the perimeter to win. I guess we should be forcing it into Zoubs and Thomas so they can practice having their shots blocked by Alabi. Fantastic idea. Alert Coach K.

or instead of just passing it around the perimeter for a 3 pt shot, we can pass it into the post to make the defense react before kicking it back out or hitting a cutter

3 pt shots are good, but only with good ball movement

[FireOgilvie]

Florida State is really really impressive on defense.

[Kfanarmy]

Florida State is really really impressive on defense.

For the past 4 minutes or so Duke has abondoned the interior on offense, allowing FSU to play much more effectively on the outside.

[davekay1971]

or instead of just passing it around the perimeter for a 3 pt shot, we can pass it into the post to make the defense react before kicking it back out or hitting a cutter

3 pt shots are good, but only with good ball movement

Agree with that point entirely.

[Kfanarmy]

when did duke score last?

[Jderf]

It upsets me that Scheyer looked like he had no idea the shot clock was winding down...

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

It upsets me that Scheyer looked like he had no idea the shot clock was winding down...

While the crowd was counting it down for him. haha smh

[dairedevil]

Thank goodness Florida State is having a horrible night at the free throw line..

[dukeblue42323]

ESPN needs better announcers.. V is ok but it gets a little old

[dairedevil]

ESPN needs better announcers.. V is ok but it gets a little old

a little old??? I just tune him out most of the time. If I try to listen, he always seems to be talking about anything other than the game that's being played. At one point tonight, he was talking about Wofford. Really, Wofford? During an ACC game? That came after something about Calipari...so, I tuned out again. Not worth putting in the effort to make sense of what he was talking about.

[DevilHorns]

I hate to say this, but I think if this was away at FSU, we lose this game.

[FireOgilvie]

I hate to say this, but I think if this was away at FSU, we lose this game.

It's a good thing it's not.

[dairedevil]

First time Scheyer has taken a free throw tonight?

[DevilHorns]

I love it when we start the "go to hell carolina" chant at the end of a win. Its got to confuse the crap out of freshmen on opposing teams.

[91devil]

Have to say this was a game that FSU lost, not that Duke won. They were really sloppy. We were ripe for a loss tonight.