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JasonEvans
01-21-2010, 11:48 AM
In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2010&c=ACC)today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--


Team Proj. Record
Duke 12-4
Clemson 10-6
Ga Tech 9-7
Fla State 9-7
Wake 9-7
Maryland 9-7
Virginia 8-8
Va Tech 8-8
NC State 6-10
B.C. 5-11
Miami 5-11
UNC 5-11

--Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans

KyDevilinIL
01-21-2010, 11:51 AM
I still think Duke wins the league, and 12-4 at this point would make my day.

I have a hard time convincing myself UNC will finish either 5-11 or dead last in the league, much less both. I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

uncwdevil
01-21-2010, 11:54 AM
I would be ecstatic with that outcome for the conference.

I need to see us play better on the road before I can predict 12-4, though.

JasonEvans
01-21-2010, 11:54 AM
By the way, Ken points out in his blog that his method of predicting can cause there to be an inbalance in the projected records. A little checking shows that the ACC cannot finish the way he projects today because there aer 2 more wins than losses in his projections.

We will just have to pick a team to take 2 wins away from. Hmmmm, who should we pick?

--Jason " ;) " Evans

davekay1971
01-21-2010, 12:00 PM
The way we're playing on the road, anything better than 8-8 (8-0 at home, 0-8 on the road) is a good thing! :rolleyes:

In all seriousness, though, our team still has the best combination of chemistry, talent, and seniority in the conference right now. We SHOULD win the ACC this year. It's a fairly even conference, and the "doormats" (UVA, NCSU, and BC) have shown that they are anything but easy wins...so 12-4 may be tough for anyone this year. I expect the conference winner to have 10-11 wins, maybe see two or three teams at that level, then a big mess of 9-7 to 7-9 teams, and two or three in the 5-6 win range.

If we can bring the same focus and execution to our road games that we bring to Cameron, we could end up in the 12 win range. But it's got to start soon...like Saturday.

jipops
01-21-2010, 12:32 PM
My bet is that Maryland blows State out of the gym on Saturday.

I'd honestly take Clemson's proj record at 10-6 with the way we're playing on the road right now.

JDev
01-21-2010, 12:53 PM
My bet is that Maryland blows State out of the gym on Saturday.

I'd honestly take Clemson's proj record at 10-6 with the way we're playing on the road right now.

You are dead on about UM and NCSU. UM will smoke them. They haven't played as well as they did last night all year, and I would doubt they put together two such efforts in a row.

Anyway, I still think Duke will win the ACC, but I think 12-4 might be a bit much. That would have them closing 9-2, and that won't happen in this league. I would guess 11-5 is a little more likely.

NYDukie
01-21-2010, 12:54 PM
I could be wrong but if Pomeroy's outcome was to occur, there would be the possibility of a Duke-UNC quarterfinal after the play in games. Not something I would look forward to as a Duke fan!!!! Just sayinnnnnnn!!!!

MChambers
01-21-2010, 01:46 PM
I could be wrong but if Pomeroy's outcome was to occur, there would be the possibility of a Duke-UNC quarterfinal after the play in games. Not something I would look forward to as a Duke fan!!!! Just sayinnnnnnn!!!!

hasn't it happened before, when Doherty was UNC coach? I think that worked out okay.

Although I love Pomeroy's stats, I do find myself worrying that seemingly every year in the last five or so Duke tends to look great at www.kenpom.com in January, and then start dropping. Notice how far our defensive efficiency dropped yesterday? Down to 18th, which isn't typical for Duke.

uncwdevil
01-21-2010, 02:07 PM
Just poking around kenpom.com...it's interesting that he has Kentucky dropping 4 regular season games.

NYDukie
01-21-2010, 02:09 PM
hasn't it happened before, when Doherty was UNC coach? I think that worked out okay.

Although I love Pomeroy's stats, I do find myself worrying that seemingly every year in the last five or so Duke tends to look great at www.kenpom.com in January, and then start dropping. Notice how far our defensive efficiency dropped yesterday? Down to 18th, which isn't typical for Duke.

You are correct...just seems like a long time ago. It was 2002 and Duke was the #2 and UNC the #7 while Maryland was the #1. The last time there was a Duke-UNC ACC final was in 2001 when Duke won 79-53.

CameronDuke
01-21-2010, 02:12 PM
In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2010&c=ACC)today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--


Team Proj. Record
Duke 12-4
Clemson 10-6
Ga Tech 9-7
Fla State 9-7
Wake 9-7
Maryland 9-7
Virginia 8-8
Va Tech 8-8
NC State 6-10
B.C. 5-11
Miami 5-11
UNC 5-11

--Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans

I told someone last night after the debacle in Raleigh that Duke will go 11-5 in the ACC this year and even that was generous. I would take 12-4 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. I figure every road game is going to be a battle now that I have seen us tank at GT and NCSU, and I had NCSU penciled in as one of our less daunting road tests. I think @ Clemson, @ Maryland and @ Wake are questionable games for us at best and we could drop them fairly easily. That puts us at 5 losses in the conference, and @ UVA is no gimme either, especially if the JPJ Arena is sold out and there are 15,000 motivated fans against us. Realistically, I wouldn't be disappointed if we went 10-6, but for some reason my gut has Duke at 11-5 this year with losses @GT, @NCSU, @Clemson, @Virginia, and @Wake. I think we sweep Carolina but no way do they go 5-11. I say UNC goes 8-8, and UVA goes 12-4 to win the ACC. UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...

Duvall
01-21-2010, 02:20 PM
I told someone last night after the debacle in Raleigh that Duke will go 11-5 in the ACC this year and even that was generous. I would take 12-4 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. I figure every road game is going to be a battle now that I have seen us tank at GT and NCSU, and I had NCSU penciled in as one of our less daunting road tests. I think @ Clemson, @ Maryland and @ Wake are questionable games for us at best and we could drop them fairly easily. That puts us at 5 losses in the conference, and @ UVA is no gimme either, especially if the JPJ Arena is sold out and there are 15,000 motivated fans against us. Realistically, I wouldn't be disappointed if we went 10-6, but for some reason my gut has Duke at 11-5 this year with losses @GT, @NCSU, @Clemson, @Virginia, and @Wake. I think we sweep Carolina but no way do they go 5-11. I say UNC goes 8-8, and UVA goes 12-4 to win the ACC. UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...


I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.

pfrduke
01-21-2010, 02:21 PM
UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...

Actually, in adjusted terms, UVA has played the worst defense of any team in the ACC this year. Even in conference play, their defense has not been stellar - they essentially give up a point per possession (0.985, to be precise) to conference opponents. Their offense, by contrast, has been carrying the team - they're scoring 1.15 points per possession against ACC opponents. They've gotten it done somewhat by shooting well, but mostly by valuing the ball - the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).

pfrduke
01-21-2010, 02:22 PM
I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.

Why is it that so many people predict us losing games we won't even play? Is it really that hard to check the schedule?

CDu
01-21-2010, 02:27 PM
In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2010&c=ACC)today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--


Team Proj. Record
Duke 12-4
Clemson 10-6
Ga Tech 9-7
Fla State 9-7
Wake 9-7
Maryland 9-7
Virginia 8-8
Va Tech 8-8
NC State 6-10
B.C. 5-11
Miami 5-11
UNC 5-11

--Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans

Looking at our remaining schedule, I think 12-4 is doable (we don't have that many awful road games left. But we do play @Clemson, @Maryland, and @UNC, and we also have potentially tough home game against GT. We can only lose two of those and also have to get past Md, VT, @BC, @UVa, and FSU.

CameronDuke
01-21-2010, 02:32 PM
Actually, in adjusted terms, UVA has played the worst defense of any team in the ACC this year. Even in conference play, their defense has not been stellar - they essentially give up a point per possession (0.985, to be precise) to conference opponents. Their offense, by contrast, has been carrying the team - they're scoring 1.15 points per possession against ACC opponents. They've gotten it done somewhat by shooting well, but mostly by valuing the ball - the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).

UVA's defense looked a heck of a lot better against GT and NSCU than Duke's did and night and day different than how they played under Dave Leitao, just sayin'. Statiscally speaking, you are right, I agree with those numbers that they statistially have played the worst defense, but man do they play with more desire, motivation, and purpose under Bennett as compared with Leitao. It was actually sad how uninspired they looked at times last season on the defensive end. All things considered, they will win more than 8 games which Pomeroy has predicted. 10 wins EASILY for the Cavs this season.

weezie
01-21-2010, 02:32 PM
the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).

Their bubble will burst in Cville. No way Tony (handsome tho' he most certainly is) can sustain this pace. Just who has really played defense against them yet?

As the Playcaller pointed out, refs know about player history, and uva is likely a blank slate considering the past, what 10 years or so? Nobody has any traction there.

CameronDuke
01-21-2010, 02:33 PM
I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.

I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.

Duvall
01-21-2010, 02:35 PM
I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.

I remain confident in my predictions.

(Neither of those games is on the schedule this year.)

Bob Green
01-21-2010, 02:35 PM
I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.

Do yourself a favor and check the schedule. Duke does not play in Winston-Salem this year and Clemson does not play in Chapel Hill.

airowe
01-21-2010, 02:36 PM
I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.

Not (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/schedule?teamId=150). gonna (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/schedule?teamId=153). happen.

CameronDuke
01-21-2010, 02:38 PM
Ha, I was baited. This unbalanced schedule perplexes me sometimes in ways I can't even imagine. I guess I am wrong on this one, you are right my friend. I still believe that UNC won't lose to Clemson for another consecutive year in the Dean Dome, though:D

pfrduke
01-21-2010, 02:53 PM
UVA's defense looked a heck of a lot better against GT and NSCU than Duke's did and night and day different than how they played under Dave Leitao, just sayin'. Statiscally speaking, you are right, I agree with those numbers that they statistially have played the worst defense, but man do they play with more desire, motivation, and purpose under Bennett as compared with Leitao. It was actually sad how uninspired they looked at times last season on the defensive end. All things considered, they will win more than 8 games which Pomeroy has predicted. 10 wins EASILY for the Cavs this season.

Against Virginia, Georgia Tech scored 1.115 points per possession, shot .563 efg%, and turned the ball over on just 16% of its possessions. Against Duke, Georgia Tech scored 1.052 points per possession, shot .462 efg%, and turned the ball over on 22.2% of its possessions. Duke played much better defense against the Jackets than Virginia did. Virginia won because they played lights out on offense against GT, scoring 82 points in a 67 possession game.

W/r/t NC State, yes, Virginia played better defense than Duke. But don't mistake UVA for a good defensive team, because they aren't (regardless of the desire, motivation, and purpose they display while playing less-than-good defense).

CDu
01-21-2010, 02:53 PM
Why is it that so many people predict us losing games we won't even play? Is it really that hard to check the schedule?

I always get a chuckle when somebody posts an "I guarantee that team X won't lose at team Y's place" post (which obviously means that team X won't play at team Y's place), and then someone follows it up with an "I'll take that bet" type of response. I guess people still forget that unbalanced schedules means that teams don't play at everybody else's place in a season.

CDu
01-21-2010, 03:01 PM
Against Virginia, Georgia Tech scored 1.115 points per possession, shot .563 efg%, and turned the ball over on just 16% of its possessions. Against Duke, Georgia Tech scored 1.052 points per possession, shot .462 efg%, and turned the ball over on 22.2% of its possessions. Duke played much better defense against the Jackets than Virginia did. Virginia won because they played lights out on offense against GT, scoring 82 points in a 67 possession game.

W/r/t NC State, yes, Virginia played better defense than Duke. But don't mistake UVA for a good defensive team, because they aren't (regardless of the desire, motivation, and purpose they display while playing less-than-good defense).

Agreed. UVa isn't as bad as some thought before the season, but they aren't some defensive juggernaut. More accurately, they've benefited by playing only one road game (against an inconsistent team), one home game against a bad team, and one home game against a good team in which they shot amazingly well from the line. Their schedule gets much tougher.

But that GT game is hardly evidence of great defense by UVa. They allowed GT to shoot 51.6% from the field. They were fortunate to shoot 23-26 from the line in that game and to have GT shoot 3-11 from the line.

UVa had a fairly friendly first 3 games. Their schedule is much tougher on the back end, with seven more road games. I could easily see them losing 7-8 games in the ACC this year despite the hot start.

gumbomoop
01-21-2010, 05:19 PM
Looking at our remaining schedule, I think 12-4 is doable (we don't have that many awful road games left. But we do play @Clemson, @Maryland, and @UNC, and we also have potentially tough home game against GT. We can only lose two of those and also have to get past Md, VT, @BC, @UVa, and FSU.

I myself have sadly had to revise my Duke prediction downward from 13-3 to 11-5, and consider that optimistic. I'm pretty sure 11-5 gets top spot, so if you're right - and everyone hopes you are - that 12-4 is doable, then 11-5 seems realistically [rather than naively] optimistic. As Duke still appears to be the only team that might distance itself even slightly from the rest, we appear, despite the dismal game last eve, to be the only team for which 12-4 is even remotely conceivable, and for which even 11-5 seems doable. Every road win is gold, and many home games will not be cakewalks.

Admittedly, if our guys "do" 11-5 or 12-4, we posters will be in dumpsville 2-3 more times this season, and cheerfully at each other's throats with reckless abandon and sharp tongue. [The only thing that will save us from each other is 14-2, and even that only temporarily.] Lord knows what will happen should we ["we"!!] end up 10-6 and tied with, say Clemson and GTech. [UVa? Very difficult to believe. Ditto for UNC at 5-11, or even 7-9.]

I'd be genuinely interested to hear any opinion that some other team seems - just from where things stand right now - more likely than Duke to do 11-5 or 12-4.

smvalkyries
01-21-2010, 05:37 PM
Actually there are two more losses than wins in the Pomeroy projections- 95 wins, 97 losses. You need to change 1 loss to a win for someone to make it balance.
But then again I don't think Duke even offers a degree in accounting-

mike88
01-21-2010, 07:12 PM
Before ACC play began, I thought we would go 12-4 and 25-6 or 26-5 overall in the regular season (depending on the G'town result). At this point, I think 10-6 or 11-5 are more realistic, which I think will be good enough for a top 2-3 seed in the ACC tournament, and may even be enough to win the regular season. The Clemson game is a big one- if we win, I like our chances to win the conference; if we don't, we are going to have several teams bunched together throughout the rest of Jan and February. I don't see Virginia staying on top, despite their schedule; I will be interested to see if GT can continue to get better- I think they may have the most upside . . .

BlueintheFace
01-21-2010, 07:19 PM
I don't care where we finish so long as march features solid CONSISTENT play from the Plumlees

Kedsy
01-21-2010, 07:34 PM
Before ACC play began, I thought we would go 12-4 and 25-6 or 26-5 overall in the regular season (depending on the G'town result). At this point, I think 10-6 or 11-5 are more realistic, which I think will be good enough for a top 2-3 seed in the ACC tournament, and may even be enough to win the regular season. The Clemson game is a big one- if we win, I like our chances to win the conference; if we don't, we are going to have several teams bunched together throughout the rest of Jan and February. I don't see Virginia staying on top, despite their schedule; I will be interested to see if GT can continue to get better- I think they may have the most upside . . .

Obviously anything can happen, but Duke is (and has been all season) the best team in the ACC. It's hard for me to believe we should drop from a clear top dog to a "2-3 seed in the ACC tournament" due to one bad loss. Although obviously nobody can know for sure what the future holds.

CDu
01-22-2010, 10:47 AM
Obviously anything can happen, but Duke is (and has been all season) the best team in the ACC. It's hard for me to believe we should drop from a clear top dog to a "2-3 seed in the ACC tournament" due to one bad loss. Although obviously nobody can know for sure what the future holds.

I agree. Yes, we have a bad loss now. But so does GT (I'd argue two), and we already have a win against Clemson. If we beat Clemson this weekend, we're in the driver's seat. Maryland and UVa haven't played the tough games on their schedule yet, and we're better than both of them.

Could we end up a #2 or #3 seed? Sure. I could see Clemson or GT getting there. Heck, I could even see UNC bouncing back from a very tough start to the schedule and improving against a lighter back end of the schedule (aside from us). But I do believe we're still the favorites.

NSDukeFan
01-22-2010, 10:51 AM
I agree. Yes, we have a bad loss now. But so does GT (I'd argue two), and we already have a win against Clemson. If we beat Clemson this weekend, we're in the driver's seat. Maryland and UVa haven't played the tough games on their schedule yet, and we're better than both of them.

Could we end up a #2 or #3 seed? Sure. I could see Clemson or GT getting there. Heck, I could even see UNC bouncing back from a very tough start to the schedule and improving against a lighter back end of the schedule (aside from us). But I do believe we're still the favorites.

It all depends on Saturday.

CDu
01-22-2010, 11:00 AM
It all depends on Saturday.

Right. If we lose Saturday, then I think Clemson would have the edge. If we win, we remain the favorites.

mike88
01-22-2010, 07:49 PM
If we win Saturday, I think we are the favorites, assuming we can beat GT at Cameron and that we don't suffer any big upsets (like @ Miami or maybe even @Maryland); if we lose at Clemson, I have a very hard time seeing any clear favorite- it may come down to tie-breakers among teams at 10-6 or 11-5.

The ACC tournament this year should be great - every team seems capable of putting together a winning effort on any given day/night.

jv001
01-22-2010, 09:56 PM
Right. If we lose Saturday, then I think Clemson would have the edge. If we win, we remain the favorites.

I told my wife tonight(who knows little about sports) that tomorrow nights game is one of the most important games Duke has played outside of the NCAA tourney in a long time. If we win our confidence level should really be high. Most fans, including myself have talked about our high ceiling and how we are improving but the State game set us back a notch. We need to regain the mental edge we had leading up to the State game and it starts with the Plumlees. We need their athlectic butts on the court. We don't need them on the bench in foul trouble or in Coach K's dog house. Mason could be key to breaking Clemson's press. I look for the team to play well and come out with a win. Go Duke!

CameronDuke
02-06-2010, 12:35 PM
In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2010&c=ACC)today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--


Team Proj. Record
Duke 12-4
Clemson 10-6
Ga Tech 9-7
Fla State 9-7
Wake 9-7
Maryland 9-7
Virginia 8-8
Va Tech 8-8
NC State 6-10
B.C. 5-11
Miami 5-11
UNC 5-11

--Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans

Thought I'd bring this back up, but there is absolutely no way UVA goes 8-8 in the ACC this season. I think they finish first or second in the league at 11-5 or 12-4. They are 5-2 right now and are up at home vs. Wake Forest right now so it looks like they will be 6-2 after today. If people are still sleeping on UVA, it's time to wake up. They will give Duke fits in Charlottesville this season if they keep playing defense the way Tony Bennett demands. They are one of the best teams in the ACC this season I have seen, if not the best.

CDu
02-06-2010, 01:48 PM
Thought I'd bring this back up, but there is absolutely no way UVA goes 8-8 in the ACC this season. I think they finish first or second in the league at 11-5 or 12-4. They are 5-2 right now and are up at home vs. Wake Forest right now so it looks like they will be 6-2 after today. If people are still sleeping on UVA, it's time to wake up. They will give Duke fits in Charlottesville this season if they keep playing defense the way Tony Bennett demands. They are one of the best teams in the ACC this season I have seen, if not the best.

I wouldn't be so quick to hand them second in the ACC. They're currently down 52-48 with under 4 minutes to go against Wake. If they lose this, they'll be 5-3. And remember that the first half of their schedule was much easier than their second half. None of the rest of the games are gimmies. They have to play @VT, @Maryland, Duke, FSU, @Clemson, and Maryland. The only potential "easy" games are on the road at Miami and at BC. They could very easily fall short of 8 wins if they don't win today. Either way, I think 11-5 or 12-4 is optimistic given their second half of the schedule.

CameronDuke
02-06-2010, 03:01 PM
Well, they lost today to fall to 5-3 and now must go on the road to UMD and VT. Two tough games for sure so they could be staring 5-5 right in the eye, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them win at VT because VT stole one from them at UVA this year. Still, I think they are very good and am not sleeping on them at all. I'm not saying I am a fan of them though, so if they lost every game the rest of the way out and made me look like an idiot, I wouldn't be angry!

superdave
02-06-2010, 05:08 PM
I'd bet the two Virginia schools finish no better than .500 in conference.

CDu
02-06-2010, 05:21 PM
I'd bet the two Virginia schools finish no better than .500 in conference.

I'd be surprised if UVa gets to better than 9-7, but I think 8 or 9 wins is where they'll end up. I'd be surprised if they get less than 7, considering that they have games against BC and Miami still to go (albeit on the road). However, an 8-8 or 9-7 season would be an amazing result for a team from whom nobody expected anything.

I think VT gets to 7 or 8 wins, but wouldn't be surprised to see them end up at 6 wins.

blueprofessor
02-06-2010, 05:24 PM
1 Atlantic Coast Conference
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 Standings
Includes games through Friday, February 5
Team Overall Conf Proj Pomeroy AdjO AdjD AdjT Next Game
Duke 18-4 6-2 13-3 .9807 2 124.4 1 88.4 20 68.6 135 Sat, at 76 Boston College (W, 77-66, 85%)
Maryland 15-6 5-2 11-5 .9530 10 115.4 17 88.9 22 71.0 46 Sun, vs 59 North Carolina (W, 86-73, 87%)
Virginia 14-6 5-2 8-8 .8836 47 111.7 40 93.6 69 63.5 316 Sat, vs 32 Wake Forest (W, 66-64, 60%)
Wake Forest 15-5 5-3 9-7 .9073 32 106.0 100 86.9 9 71.3 39 Sat, at 47 Virginia (L, 66-64, 40%)
Virginia Tech 17-4 4-3 8-8 .8957 38 105.1 113 87.2 11 67.8 176 Sat, vs 19 Clemson (W, 64-63, 54%)
Clemson 16-6 4-4 8-8 .9319 19 106.6 88 84.9 4 70.1 73 Sat, at 38 Virginia Tech (L, 64-63, 46%)
Georgia Tech 16-6 4-4 9-7 .9318 20 109.9 53 87.6 14 70.2 71 Sat, vs 78 North Carolina St. (W, 74-64, 86%)
Florida St. 16-6 4-4 9-7 .9234 24 105.1 114 84.6 2 68.9 125 Sat, vs 62 Miami FL (W, 69-61, 80%)
Boston College 12-10 3-5 6-10 .8244 76 110.1 51 96.3 104 65.9 254 Sat, vs 2 Duke (L, 77-66, 15%)
North Carolina 13-9 2-5 5-11 .8566 59 109.4 62 93.7 70 73.9 11 Sun, at 10 Maryland (L, 86-73, 13%)
Miami FL 16-6 2-6 5-11 .8518 62 109.4 61 94.0 74 67.5 191 Sat, at 24 Florida St. (L, 69-61, 20%)
North Carolina St. 14-9 2-6 5-11 .8131 78 110.4 47 97.1 111 65.6 261 Sat, at 20 Georgia Tech (L, 74-64, 14%)

Best regards--Blueprofessor:D

mike88
02-06-2010, 06:01 PM
If we are going to finish 13-3, we will need to play better on the road. In conference play, we have lost to a good GT team and mediocre NC State team, beaten a good but not great Clemson team, and barely beaten a mediocre at best BC. The remaining games are (in my opinion), going to be more difficult than the first 4:

1) UNC- I expect UNC to play their best game of the ACC season Wednesday night. If we play very well, we will win, but an average effort or less won't get it done.

2) Miami- easiest remaining game- just need to take care of business

3) UVA- they will have a lot riding on this game - win and they will make the tournament; lose and they are on the bubble- this would be the 2nd biggest true win to date (after Clemson). . .

4) Maryland- hard to get a feel for this one now, but always a hard place to play and their team is playing well right now . . .

I would be happy with 2-2, ecstatic with 3-1, delirious with 4-0

-bdbd
02-07-2010, 12:34 AM
In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page (http://kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2010&c=ACC)today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--


Team Proj. Record
Duke 12-4
Clemson 10-6
Ga Tech 9-7
Fla State 9-7
Wake 9-7
Maryland 9-7
Virginia 8-8
Va Tech 8-8
NC State 6-10
B.C. 5-11
Miami 5-11
UNC 5-11

--Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans

I see Duke losing 4 or five - could easily see us losing 2 more ACC road games, such as @ College Park and/or @ Chapel Hell. In CIS, I particularly see challenges from NC, MD, and maybe VT. UVA in Charlottesville could surprise - can't believe how well thet've been competing!

I see the order of finish in the ACC being something like: Duke, then Wake, MD, GT, UVA/Clemson, FSU, NC/VPI, NCSU, BC, MIA. I think the over/under for teams in the NCAA is 6.5, though I lean towards seven currently. If Kerlina continues the current path, then they will miss. That is an extra incventive for them to beat us or MD -- a resume-booster for NCAA admission.

Regardless of league mediocrity, this is shaping up as a fun, competitivfe race this year. (I am going to be pissed if they get in based on reputation!)


:eek::mad:

NYC Duke Fan
02-07-2010, 07:40 AM
As so many have pointed out in threads it is very difficult to win on the road in the ACC this year.

No team has won more than 2 games on the road this year. Miami has not won once and UNC, NCState, BC, Clemson, Va Tech, and Georgia Tech have only won once.

Any explanation for it ?

Indoor66
02-07-2010, 08:34 AM
As so many have pointed out in threads it is very difficult to win on the road in the ACC this year.

No team has won more than 2 games on the road this year. Miami has not won once and UNC, NCState, BC, Clemson, Va Tech, and Georgia Tech have only won once.

Any explanation for it ?

Parity.

NYC Duke Fan
02-07-2010, 08:55 AM
Parity.

Or Mediocrity.

sagegrouse
02-07-2010, 09:02 AM
1 Atlantic Coast Conference
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 Standings
Includes games through Friday, February 5


Team Overall Conf Proj Pomeroy AdjO AdjD AdjT Next Game
Duke 18-4 6-2 13-3 .9807 2 124.4 1 88.4 20 68.6 135 Sat, at 76 Boston College (W, 77-66, 85%)
Maryland 15-6 5-2 11-5 .9530 10 115.4 17 88.9 22 71.0 46 Sun, vs 59 North Carolina (W, 86-73, 87%)
Virginia 14-6 5-2 8-8 .8836 47 111.7 40 93.6 69 63.5 316 Sat, vs 32 Wake Forest (W, 66-64, 60%)
Wake Forest 15-5 5-3 9-7 .9073 32 106.0 100 86.9 9 71.3 39 Sat, at 47 Virginia (L, 66-64, 40%)
Virginia Tech 17-4 4-3 8-8 .8957 38 105.1 113 87.2 11 67.8 176 Sat, vs 19 Clemson (W, 64-63, 54%)
Clemson 16-6 4-4 8-8 .9319 19 106.6 88 84.9 4 70.1 73 Sat, at 38 Virginia Tech (L, 64-63, 46%)
Georgia Tech 16-6 4-4 9-7 .9318 20 109.9 53 87.6 14 70.2 71 Sat, vs 78 North Carolina St. (W, 74-64, 86%)
Florida St. 16-6 4-4 9-7 .9234 24 105.1 114 84.6 2 68.9 125 Sat, vs 62 Miami FL (W, 69-61, 80%)
Boston College 12-10 3-5 6-10 .8244 76 110.1 51 96.3 104 65.9 254 Sat, vs 2 Duke (L, 77-66, 15%)
North Carolina 13-9 2-5 5-11 .8566 59 109.4 62 93.7 70 73.9 11 Sun, at 10 Maryland (L, 86-73, 13%)
Miami FL 16-6 2-6 5-11 .8518 62 109.4 61 94.0 74 67.5 191 Sat, at 24 Florida St. (L, 69-61, 20%)
North Carolina St. 14-9 2-6 5-11 .8131 78 110.4 47 97.1 111 65.6 261 Sat, at 20 Georgia Tech (L, 74-64, 14%)

Best regards--Blueprofessor:D

Here is a reformat of BP's table. Not perfect, but a little easier to read.

sagegrouse

davekay1971
02-07-2010, 09:13 AM
If we are going to finish 13-3, we will need to play better on the road. In conference play, we have lost to a good GT team and mediocre NC State team, beaten a good but not great Clemson team, and barely beaten a mediocre at best BC. The remaining games are (in my opinion), going to be more difficult than the first 4:

1) UNC- I expect UNC to play their best game of the ACC season Wednesday night. If we play very well, we will win, but an average effort or less won't get it done.

2) Miami- easiest remaining game- just need to take care of business

3) UVA- they will have a lot riding on this game - win and they will make the tournament; lose and they are on the bubble- this would be the 2nd biggest true win to date (after Clemson). . .

4) Maryland- hard to get a feel for this one now, but always a hard place to play and their team is playing well right now . . .

I would be happy with 2-2, ecstatic with 3-1, delirious with 4-0

I like this breakdown. I'm hopeful that we can hold serve at home this season, the above games, to me, are where we look to lock up the conference championship. I agree with your breakdown, and suspect that UVa and Md will be extremely challenging road games. Not only will UVa be playing for a NCAA bid, Maryland may be playing us for number 1 in the conference.

Of course, it all starts Wednesday night. The road game I care about the most. 9F, baby.

camion
02-07-2010, 09:20 AM
Or Mediocrity.

You keep saying that the ACC is mediocre. It isn't. The league doesn't have the expected teams at the top (Duke aside), but it's pretty darned good. Both Pomeroy and Sagarin have the ACC as the top rated league overall. Okay, but maybe the ACC doesn't have as many teams in the top ten or top 25. Actually it does if you don't just rely the press clippings. The ACC is comparable to the other conferences at the top and is better at the bottom. Parity is indeed an accurate description.

From Pomeroy's computer rankings here is how the various leagues sort out. Note that each of the other leagues has at least 4 teams that are worse that the worst team in the ACC.


Conference top 10 top 25 top 50 below 80
ACC 2 5 8 0
Big East 2 5 8 4
Big 12 3 5 6 5
Big 10 1 4 5 4
SEC 1 2 6 4
Pac 10 0 2 2 5

If the ACC is mediocre then so is every other conference in the nation.

Note1: The other top ten team for Pomeroy is Maryland.
Note2: The Pomeroy rankings do not include Saturday's games.

JasonEvans
02-07-2010, 02:25 PM
I love it when folks revive one of my older threads ;)

I think Virginia is about to really fall. I am impressed with their play so far this year and think Bennett is doing a fabulous job, but their remaining schedule is just murder. 5 of their 8 games left are on the road. They do get Miami and BC on the road, but no road win is a given in this league. Their homes games are Duke, FSU, and Maryland... no gimme there. A 3-5 or even 2-6 final 8 games is very possible. I think they have to go 4-4, getting them to 9-7 in the league, to have a shot at a post-season bid.

The team that I think could rise up more than expected is Va Tech. They've won 5 out of 6 including at Virginia and home wins over UNC and Clemson. They still have 2 games left with NC State and a game at BC-- two of those are on the road but I won't be at all surprised if they win all 3 of those games against the bottom of the conference. That means they just need a win at home over Virginia, Wake, or Maryland (or a much less likely road win at Duke or Ga Tech) to reach 9-7 in the conference. Heck, with some confidence and a good break or two, they might even get to 10-6 in the league and a bye in the first round of the ACC tourney. This team's leaders are all very experienced players (mostly juniors) and Malcolm Delaney is a first-team all-ACC player. Heck, Delaney, Landesberg, and Vazquez are Scheyer's biggest competition for POY in the conference. Don't sleep on the Hokies!

--Jason "I think Wake finishes second in the ACC, then Maryland, and VaTech or GaTech in 4th. Clemson, FSU, and Virginia fight for 2 NCAA spots" Evans

gumbomoop
02-08-2010, 09:34 AM
I agree with following [from today's ACC Roundup page]: "Maryland is the most coherent team in the ACC at this point. They understand their roles very well, they’re athletic, and they play together as well as any team we’ve seen this season. At this point, they have to, at the least, be considered no worse than the co-favorites to take the regular season."

"Coherent" seems just the right word for the Terps. Forgetting their truly awful fans, and concentrating only on their team, they're admirable, doing it with 3 experienced seniors [a major plus that I didn't fully take into account in preseason], a solid frosh big guy, and an excellent coach. They just dismantled the Heels; and however limited an accomplishment that is these days, it's an accomplishment we'd welcome with joyful, grateful hearts Wed eve. If the Terps get on a roll, they could get to 12-4.

Ditto, or more likely a roll to a possible 11-5 for Wake. I base this on their relatively weak schedule from here on out. Their frosh shooters have to help Aminu and Smith.

Duke? Still the most likely team to get to 11-5/12-4 and win or share reg season "title." Let's hope Pete Gillen was forever prophetic: "Duke is Duke."

Rivalry week, indeed.