Singler's Season

[dukelion]

I decided to start this thread to address the various talk about Singler's game this year.

Considering he was a pre-season AA his performance so far this year has been a bit of a let down but all in all I don't think there's reason to panic yet.

He's obviously forcing his offense a bit and is still a streaky shooter but he's been excellent on defense and also is averaging 7 boards a game at the SF postion which is pretty impressive.

Basically I'd like to see him defer a bit to Jon and Nolan and simply take what the D gives him. I'd also like him to post his man up a little bit more and focus on his mid range game.

As far as his 3pt % goes, if you recall last year he was in a pretty good slump and then finished strong at over 38%, not too bad for a high volume shooter.......but like I said he's pretty streaky.

All in all.....not to worried about his game and think he'll improve as the year goes along.

[DeBlueDevil]

Actually, I'm glad you decided to touch on this because I have been wondering what everyone thinks as well. I agree I think in the long run he will be fine. He is definitely better than what he has shown so far this year but I am not sure as to how much better he is. But it does still remain that he is a MAJOR part of our team and is still contributing ALOT in other aspects of the game outside of his shooting. But if we do expect to make a run at this thing we definitely need Kyle to step up a little bit more. My opinion his shooting will get better but I still don't see his game as a finished product yet. In my opinion depending on a HUGE improvement this year, I see his game as an unfinished product and I'd hope to see him in a Duke jersey for his Senior year.

[Devilsfan]

I think he'll be fine. He's still the second best player (to Scheyer) we have on this team. He seems to have hit a wall like he did last March. I thin playing him 30 mins a game with proper rests might help or maybe he's practicing too hard.

[Kedsy]

I think he'll be fine. He's still the second best player (to Scheyer) we have on this team. He seems to have hit a wall like he did last March. I thin playing him 30 mins a game with proper rests might help or maybe he's practicing too hard.

What "wall" did Kyle hit last March? He played every minute of he ACC tournament and averaged 18 and 8 in 3 games. Then he averaged 14 and 7 in three NCAAT games (and those numbers are artificially deflated because he only played 28 minutes in the first round game against Binghamton.

He's always been a streaky shooter, especially when he presses. In my opinion that's all that's going on now. Although I agree with those who say he should take what the defense gives him and not try to force everything.

[dukeblue42323]

I think it is less of him doing bad and more or other players doing well. Jon gets the ball a heck of a lot more this season that last seasons.. Reasons like that..

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Kyle should not be shooting 8 three pointers in a game, especially when he is struggling. Come on Kyle, be agressive with the ball!

[moonpie23]

there seems to be a transition from 4 to 3...i know he's SUPPOSED to play the 3 in the nba, but, i'm wondering if he was matched up against somewhat slower, less agile players in the 4 and now the opposing 3's are more on his level.

this could be over-thinking it, but, he does seem to be really forcing his game either cause he thinks the game is on his shoulders, or he's OVER-reaching to get his shot back.

[ccrazies_708]

Perhaps Devilsfan was talking about Kyle as a freshman, where it was a consensus that he hit the "freshman wall"

[NSDukeFan]

there seems to be a transition from 4 to 3...i know he's SUPPOSED to play the 3 in the nba, but, i'm wondering if he was matched up against somewhat slower, less agile players in the 4 and now the opposing 3's are more on his level.

this could be over-thinking it, but, he does seem to be really forcing his game either cause he thinks the game is on his shoulders, or he's OVER-reaching to get his shot back.

I think he is finding he can't blow by his defenders at the 3 as easily as the 4s and 5s that have been guarding him. The positive (and negative during a shooting slump) is that he probably finds he doesn't have too much difficulty shooting over his defender. I think he will find other ways to score over the smaller, quicker defenders he is facing as the season progresses. Until then, we will just have to live with his 15 ppg, 7 rpg, solid ball-handling and defense.

[greybeard]

Kyle lacks experience playing as a small forward and it shows. Knowing "what's good" or more importantly "what's coming" when on offense from the small forward position is an entirely different animal than playing from the perspective Kyle has played from since at Duke and I'd have to believe before.

The component parts might well all be present (I'm not entirely sure about that), but the court looks different and the way the defense presents is radically different when playing with a small forward on you and not the other team's second biggest big.

This is a major change that Kyle and the team are undertaking and figuring things out will take time. In the long run, Duke and especially Kyle will be the better for it.

In the meantime, I have said in a variety of contexts and believe that having him make most all his catches outside the 3 line is a mistake. Given the team's personnel, and the need to spread the floor, I do not think that posting up is the best alternative option, although I should think that the threat of that, Kyle's starting near the lane and coming up or wide for the catch and then facing up has a lot of merit. Getting to the basket from 15-17with options is a relative piece of cake compared to from beyond the 3, as is shooting after facing up.

Roaming out beyond 3 point line after scaring some people from inside it makes the 3 a lot easier, imo.

K seems to have this calculus concerning the benefits of shooting a 3 vs a 17 footer (but see Henderson last year) that apparently draws him away from an offense that routinely creates catches for Kyle inside the 3. That's why they pay him the big bucks.

In the meantime, experience is the only teacher and I have to believe that Kyle will get it more and more as the season progresses. "He not busy being born is busy dying." Bob Zimmerman.

Relax folks, the guy is a college student, the court is his laboratory, and this type learning can come in surprising clumps.

If you want finished products, watch movies; if you enjoy college basketball, root for Kyle and enjoy the ride. That's what I'm gonna do. Later,

Grey "the old, bald, fat guy who only thinks that he knows what he's talking about but sometimes is right" beard

[IBleedBlue]

I dont understand why this happens with pretty much every player. Kyle's first year when he played the center, everyone said he is supposed to play 4 and not 5. Now, he is playing at 3 and everyone says he is supposed to play 3 in the league.
I believe he is a power forward in the nba because of his height and range. He is 6'8" and has a very good three point shot to go with it. This is a typical nba 4.
And I personally think he can play either 3 or 4 seamlessly. This whole issue is more about us being patient than expecting lights out performances from him.

[ice-9]

He has the height but not the size to play the PF position in the NBA. I mean...I'm sure he can do a decent job at it, but his natural position is an SF. Maybe a combo SF/PF?

[Rudy]

Kyle is a very good player who does many great things on the court in every phase of the game I can think of, except that his jump shot is off significantly. Plus he's a hard worker on the floor. It's puzzling to us because we have seen him shoot so well the past two years. It's probably puzzling to him, too.

[Memphis Devil]

I'm not sure that I understand all of the angst over Kyle's play this year. Obviously, he could be shooting the ball better and certainly, he could be taking some better shots. But, he is averaging 15+ pts. and 7+ rebounds a game right now. Perhaps this all stems from everyone thinking that Kyle would have to be the one to replace the bulk of the scoring after the departure of Gerald. Perhaps we are having a hard time letting loose of our preseason excpectations for Kyle. Jon has increased his scoring by 5+ pts/game and Nolan has increased his scoring by 10+ pts/game. Last year G averaged 16.5 pts/game. Gerald's scoring has been accounted for, just not from the person we thought would be doing the scoring.

Instead of relishing in the improvement of Jon and Nolan (more so Nolan). We are wringing our hands over a kid averaging 15/7. We currently have 3 players averaging 15+ points/game. Is it reasonable or even logical to expect to have 3 players averaging 18+ points/game? How many teams in college basketball have ever had that type of production? My knowledge is limited, but I don't believe it has ever happened at Duke.

I guess that what I am trying to say is take a step back and look at what we have as a whole. We are 14-2 and ranked in the top 10. Our two losses have come at the hands of a Wisconsin team that not only shot lights out that game but has since proven to be a very good team, and a Georgia Tech team with two future NBA first rounders and refs that apparently call rugby games for a living. We have an All-American type player (just not the one everyone was expecting) and 3 All-ACC type players.

This ship is not sinking (not that anyone says it is).

Is Kyle capable of better? Yes. But, so are Mason and Miles. That, to me, is what makes this team so much fun to watch and root for. If the worst thing that Kyle does this year is average 15 and 7, I will be quite happy with that.

(On a side note, while I would never hope for any player to have a down year, the silver lining to Kyle only averaging 15/7 could be that his draft stock drops and he returns for his senior season and hopefully a national title defense.;))

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm not sure that I understand all of the angst over Kyle's play this year. Obviously, he could be shooting the ball better and certainly, he could be taking some better shots. But, he is averaging 15+ pts. and 7+ rebounds a game right now. Perhaps this all stems from everyone thinking that Kyle would have to be the one to replace the bulk of the scoring after the departure of Gerald. Perhaps we are having a hard time letting loose of our preseason excpectations for Kyle. Jon has increased his scoring by 5+ pts/game and Nolan has increased his scoring by 10+ pts/game. Last year G averaged 16.5 pts/game. Gerald's scoring has been accounted for, just not from the person we thought would be doing the scoring.

Instead of relishing in the improvement of Jon and Nolan (more so Nolan). We are wringing our hands over a kid averaging 15/7. We currently have 3 players averaging 15+ points/game. Is it reasonable or even logical to expect to have 3 players averaging 18+ points/game? How many teams in college basketball have ever had that type of production? My knowledge is limited, but I don't believe it has ever happened at Duke.

I guess that what I am trying to say is take a step back and look at what we have as a whole. We are 14-2 and ranked in the top 10. Our two losses have come at the hands of a Wisconsin team that not only shot lights out that game but has since proven to be a very good team, and a Georgia Tech team with two future NBA first rounders and refs that apparently call rugby games for a living. We have an All-American type player (just not the one everyone was expecting) and 3 All-ACC type players.

This ship is not sinking (not that anyone says it is).

Is Kyle capable of better? Yes. But, so are Mason and Miles. That, to me, is what makes this team so much fun to watch and root for. If the worst thing that Kyle does this year is average 15 and 7, I will be quite happy with that.

(On a side note, while I would never hope for any player to have a down year, the silver lining to Kyle only averaging 15/7 could be that his draft stock drops and he returns for his senior season and hopefully a national title defense.;))

I really like this guy. This is a damn good post. Needs to read by all. My favorite part is in bold.

Couldn't agree more. Well done, MemphisDevil. Take a bow

[phaedrus]

Obviously, he could be shooting the ball better and certainly, he could be taking some better shots. But, he is averaging 15+ pts. and 7+ rebounds a game right now.

You said it all right there. Kyle is playing well by almost any standards, but he's a player of immense talent, and if this team is going to be a great team, Kyle needs to play great. Last I looked he was shooting around 41%. I'm really excited about how the team is playing right now, and when Kyle can be a more efficient offensive player like he has been in the past, we'll be really special.

[Jeffrey]

I wager professionally and would bet serious money that Kyle's already solid stats are going to improve substantially during the remainder of the season. It appears to me that Kyle has a deep desire to win and the talent & skills to do it. Kyle's shooting is very likely to improve and very hard to guard with a substantially smaller SF.

Until then..... we play our best ball with Kyle on the floor, even when he is not shooting his best.

[miramar]

I wager professionally and would bet serious money that Kyle's already solid stats are going to improve substantially during the remainder of the season. It appears to me that Kyle has a deep desire to win and the talent & skills to do it. Kyle's shooting is very likely to improve and very hard to guard with a substantially smaller SF.

Until then..... we play our best ball with Kyle on the floor, even when he is not shooting his best.

Couldn't agree more. It was great to see Kyle scoring last night even though his outside shooting was off, and of course doing all the other things he does on defense, the boards, etc.

If we compare his shooting percentage in 2009 and 2010, there has only been a decline on threes and he has in fact improved on FTs and two pointers.

FT 71.3% & 77.3%
2PT 45.2% & 46.1%
3PT 38.3% and 33.8%

So Kyle probably should not take 8 threes in a game as he did against Tech, just as Jon should not take 13.

In the three ACC games, Singler is 3/14 (21.4%) and Scheyer is 7/27 (25.9%) on threes, but both figures are bound to improve significantly.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In the three ACC games, Singler is 3/14 (21.4%) and Scheyer is 7/27 (25.9%) on threes, but both figures are bound to improve significantly.

While I completely agree with you that their 3-pt shooting percentages will increase, I wanted to point out how impressive it was to beat a hungry, angry ACC team without the 3-pt shot. Our interior scoring, jump shot, offensive rebounds, and driving (thanks Nolan!) were really good.

If this continues, we won't need to rely as much on our 3-pt shooting. It's a great weapon to have (I love Bruce Pearl), but having a lethal 2-pt game really opens the doors.

[NSDukeFan]

Couldn't agree more. It was great to see Kyle scoring last night even though his outside shooting was off, and of course doing all the other things he does on defense, the boards, etc.

If we compare his shooting percentage in 2009 and 2010, there has only been a decline on threes and he has in fact improved on FTs and two pointers.

FT 71.3% & 77.3%
2PT 45.2% & 46.1%
3PT 38.3% and 33.8%

So Kyle probably should not take 8 threes in a game as he did against Tech, just as Jon should not take 13.

In the three ACC games, Singler is 3/14 (21.4%) and Scheyer is 7/27 (25.9%) on threes, but both figures are bound to improve significantly.

Just a reminder though that even if Kyle is only shooting 33% from three, that is an effective FG% of 50% which is very good. As you mentioned, I also expect this percentage to increase, but even if it doesn't, it's not so bad.

[Jeffrey]

Just a reminder though that even if Kyle is only shooting 33% from three, that is an effective FG% of 50% which is very good. As you mentioned, I also expect this percentage to increase, but even if it doesn't, it's not so bad.

Good point. Sometimes the obvious gets overlooked.

Taking this a level further.... has anyone seen stats on the percentage of missed 3's vs. 2's which result in offensive rebounds?

[COYS]

Good point. Sometimes the obvious gets overlooked.

Taking this a level further.... has anyone seen stats on the percentage of missed 3's vs. 2's which result in offensive rebounds?

On the other hand, missed threes can also lead to fast break points for the other team. I think Kyle should keep firing away when he's open, but it was good to see him have better shot selection last night.

[pfrduke]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

Well, there's also draft status. I don't know that anyone right now views him as a lottery pick if he leaves, given the way he's played so far this season (and the way some other players have shined). Maybe his play improves enough by the end of the year that he elevates himself to lottery status. Maybe he really just wants to leave, regardless of whether he's in the lottery, late first round, or even second round. I don't really know.

I'd compare him more to Ellington, Hansbrough, or Lawson - a guy who may want to leave if his draft status is high enough, but understands that an additional stellar year in college (particularly for a team that enjoys lots of team success) can elevate your draft status.

[pfrduke]

Following up on that, Draft Express currently forecasts Kyle at #24 this year (to OKC), and nbadraft.net has him at #24 next year. Take said projections with a large grain of salt (particularly since there's still half a season to go), but if he's still forecast to go late first this year by season's end, I would not at all be surprised to see him back.

[Hermy-own]

Following up on that, Draft Express currently forecasts Kyle at #24 this year (to OKC), and nbadraft.net has him at #24 next year. Take said projections with a large grain of salt (particularly since there's still half a season to go), but if he's still forecast to go late first this year by season's end, I would not at all be surprised to see him back.

You might be right. While I see Kyle's play improving slightly as the season goes on, especially in terms of shooting percentage, I don't expect him to break out in any big way. He is already averaging 16 and 7. He's definitely a competitive guy, and I'm sure he wants to win a National Championship. My theory that he was going to go pro was only based on K's early year comments that Kyle's schedule allowed him to work out like a pro (no classes until 11 AM). Now that his stock has dropped slightly from the beginning of the year, I hope he will consider coming back. If he becomes a lottery pick again, I expect to see him go, and I'll wish him well.

EDIT: Let's get this thread back on topic. I apologize for helping move the subject away from Austin Rivers. My thoughts on Rivers are that it's great that he's looking at Duke and I think Florida's season has to be hurting their recruitment. The positive signs are: His father appears to be very interested in Duke. Duke is a much better team than Florida. He had a great visit to Duke. The negative signs are: He did convince Brad Beal to go to Florida. It's possible he is showing interest in Duke because his dad wants him to, not because his heart is really into it. Overall... it's a tossup, IMO.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

I certainly would not blame Singler for leaving early; however, it will be interesting to see what he does. I think he would be turning down an excellent opportunity to get his jersey retired by leaving early (as well as a shot at a National Title).

[DUKIE V(A)]

I certainly would not blame Singler for leaving early; however, it will be interesting to see what he does. I think he would be turning down an excellent opportunity to get his jersey retired by leaving early (as well as a shot at a National Title).

Of course, he still has a shot at the National Title this season (but why not go for two straight).:D

[Houston]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

To be realistic there is less than a 50% chance that Singler will go pro. What position will he play? He's not an NBA 4 and he needs another year to prove he can play the 3 in the Big Boy League. Kyrie and and another year of maturity for Nolan and the Plumlees help his value. As was highlighted above, the 2010/2011 Devils should be playing in late March/early April.

[Kedsy]

To be realistic there is less than a 50% chance that Singler will go pro. What position will he play? He's not an NBA 4 and he needs another year to prove he can play the 3 in the Big Boy League. Kyrie and and another year of maturity for Nolan and the Plumlees help his value. As was highlighted above, the 2010/2011 Devils should be playing in late March/early April.

At this time last year, what was the chance that Gerald Henderson would go pro? He was an undersized 3, who didn't really have a good enough outside shot to be an NBA 2. The chances of Kyle leaving are about the same, in my opinion.

[rotogod00]

Not exactly sure why we're discussing Singler and his future at Duke on this thread, but for what it's worth, Chad Ford's most recent Top 100 (updated a couple of days ago) has Singler at 54. Here's his take:

"Jan 12 Update: After two years of doing a pretty good job of convincing skeptical scouts that he had NBA talent, Singler has been backsliding all season. Duke has moved him to small forward and his confidence and stroke have completely left him. In two of Singler's higher-profile games this year -- against Connecticut in late November and against Georgia Tech on Saturday -- he shot a combined 4-for-25 from the field and averaged just seven points. Clearly Singler looks uncomfortable in his new role at the 3. But scouts aren't cutting him much slack. Most teams see him as a 3, not a 4, at the next level. If he can't cut it in college, he won't cut it in the pros. Singler made his first appearance ever in our top 30 in mid-November. He's now slid out into the late 40s."

[MChambers]

I'd compare him more to Ellington, Hansbrough, or Lawson - a guy who may want to leave if his draft status is high enough, but understands that an additional stellar year in college (particularly for a team that enjoys lots of team success) can elevate your draft status.

Never compare a Duke guy to a UNC guy. Just isn't right.

[oldnavy]

At this time last year, what was the chance that Gerald Henderson would go pro? He was an undersized 3, who didn't really have a good enough outside shot to be an NBA 2. The chances of Kyle leaving are about the same, in my opinion.

It really isn't about what you have done that matters, it is about what you could possibly do. I think that Gerald at this point has or had a much greater ceiling than Kyle has. Not to disparage Kyle in any way, but he is going to be limited by his physical abilities more than G was IMO.

[Devilsfan]

G could have used another year. His family didn't seem desperate for the money. I hope he likes playing golf with old man jordan and riding the bench but I'm sure he enjoys the money.

[ice-9]

G could have used another year. His family didn't seem desperate for the money. I hope he likes playing golf with old man jordan and riding the bench but I'm sure he enjoys the money.

I know I would...

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Not exactly sure why we're discussing Singler and his future at Duke on this thread, but for what it's worth, Chad Ford's most recent Top 100 (updated a couple of days ago) has Singler at 54. Here's his take:

"Jan 12 Update: After two years of doing a pretty good job of convincing skeptical scouts that he had NBA talent, Singler has been backsliding all season. Duke has moved him to small forward and his confidence and stroke have completely left him. In two of Singler's higher-profile games this year -- against Connecticut in late November and against Georgia Tech on Saturday -- he shot a combined 4-for-25 from the field and averaged just seven points. Clearly Singler looks uncomfortable in his new role at the 3. But scouts aren't cutting him much slack. Most teams see him as a 3, not a 4, at the next level. If he can't cut it in college, he won't cut it in the pros. Singler made his first appearance ever in our top 30 in mid-November. He's now slid out into the late 40s."


Seems about right honestly. I do think it's a little low to take 2 games where you've struggled and combine them into one stat. You could say that the Wisconsin game and the Wake Forest game were just as high profile and he shined in those. But still, he is struggling and I wouldn't be salivating over him if I were an NBA scout.

[rotogod00]

Seems about right honestly. I do think it's a little low to take 2 games where you've struggled and combine them into one stat. You could say that the Wisconsin game and the Wake Forest game were just as high profile and he shined in those. But still, he is struggling and I wouldn't be salivating over him if I were an NBA scout.

agree with you that 2 games is way too small a sample size to normally judge a player, especially if they're outliers in his performance. but he has generally struggled all season and his limitations are what they are. his lack of athleticism is going to hurt him big time in the eyes of NBA teams. now, playing the small forward position at 6'9", if made up for it with lights out shooting, he'd probably be okay. but we all know he's very much a streaky shooter who's prone to force his shot.

[MarkD83]

The "draftability" of a player is not about their skill but about economics. The NBA draft is about supply and demand. The NBA GMs want as many players in the draft as possible so that they have more leverage. Gerald Henderson is a case in point from last year. He rides the pine for Charlotte but the NBA GMs wanted him in the draft so that they had more choices. By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.

With that being said...Can we talk about this in the off-season?

[sagegrouse]

The "draftability" of a player is not about their skill but about economics. The NBA draft is about supply and demand. The NBA GMs want as many players in the draft as possible so that they have more leverage. Gerald Henderson is a case in point from last year. He rides the pine for Charlotte but the NBA GMs wanted him in the draft so that they had more choices. By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.

With that being said...Can we talk about this in the off-season?

Given that there are a fixed number of lottery and first-round picks and given that there is a salary scale, I have no idea how you stuff more players into the first round or how the owners gain if more supposedly inferior players enter the draft. If Kyle becomes a lottery pick, someone else doesn't, and why should the owners and GMs prefer Kyle to a better player?

In other words, I have no idea what you are talking about.

sagegrouse
'BTW I think Kyle, even during his shooting slump, is an awesome presence during the game. And there is no one who works harder on the court. I expect he will play a long time in the NBA'

[77devil]

By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.


Not a chance unless he picks up his game substantially.

[rotogod00]

Given that there are a fixed number of lottery and first-round picks and given that there is a salary scale, I have no idea how you stuff more players into the first round or how the owners gain if more supposedly inferior players enter the draft. If Kyle becomes a lottery pick, someone else doesn't, and why should the owners and GMs prefer Kyle to a better player?

In other words, I have no idea what you are talking about.

sagegrouse
'BTW I think Kyle, even during his shooting slump, is an awesome presence during the game. And there is no one who works harder on the court. I expect he will play a long time in the NBA'

you and me both. a 2nd round talent is a 2nd round talent

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not a chance unless he picks up his game substantially.

Very very true. Singler is projected to go as a late first rounder. I haven't seen anywhere where he is a lottery pick. The way is playing, IMO, he shouldn't be a lottery pick. In the NBA, being absolutely versatile and doing the little things that Kyle does not classify as being "lottery pick material". That said, he will be a hell of a pick up for someone in the second half of the first round.

Because of this, I would be surprised if Kyle left early. Unless his game substantially improves this year, I really don't see Kyle leaving early.

[hq2]

In the NBA, Kyle's a 3. He has to have an NBA jump shot to play there, and this year he hasn't shown it. If I were a pro and drafted him, it would be with the knowledge that he has to work on it for a year. So, for everyone's sake, he's be better off working on it at Duke.

[slower]

Very very true. Singler is projected to go as a late first rounder. I haven't seen anywhere where he is a lottery pick. The way is playing, IMO, he shouldn't be a lottery pick. In the NBA, being absolutely versatile and doing the little things that Kyle does not classify as being "lottery pick material". That said, he will be a hell of a pick up for someone in the second half of the first round.

Because of this, I would be surprised if Kyle left early. Unless his game substantially improves this year, I really don't see Kyle leaving early.

1. I wonder, since Kyle has apparently adjusted his class schedule to accommodate "NBA plans", if he already mentally has his bags packed and what kind of mental obstacle it would be to commit to another year of academics.

2. Does he want to take another year of pounding and potential injury and not get paid for it?

NOTHING would make me happier than to have another year of Kyle, the greatest warrior I've seen wearing Duke blue. And if he DOES come back, does he move back to more of an inside role, (since we're losing Lance and Zoubs) or stay more on the perimeter? But that's getting ahead of things, I know.

One more (potential) question: IF Kyle comes back, how do you justify keeping him on the perimeter if Irving, Nolan, Dre and Seth prove to be superior shooters from range?

[CDu]

NOTHING would make me happier than to have another year of Kyle, the greatest warrior I've seen wearing Duke blue. And if he DOES come back, does he move back to more of an inside role, (since we're losing Lance and Zoubs) or stay more on the perimeter? But that's getting ahead of things, I know.

One more (potential) question: IF Kyle comes back, how do you justify keeping him on the perimeter if Irving, Nolan, Dre and Seth prove to be superior shooters from range?

If Singler returns, I would guess that he'd split his time between the 3 and 4. We'd have the Plumlees and Kelly to play the 5 (and some 4) and Hairston would play some 4. We'd also have Irving/Curry/Smith/Dawkins/Thornton to rotate at the perimeter - primarily at the 1 and 2, but some at the 3.

But despite that, offensively Singler would still be an "outside in" player. Singler has played primarily on the perimeter all three of his years at Duke. The only difference has been who has been guarding him. In his first two years, he was guarded by college 4s and 5s. This year, he's being guarded primarily by college 3s. Next year, he'd be guarded by 3s and 4s depending upon our lineup.

[houstondukie]

1. I wonder, since Kyle has apparently adjusted his class schedule to accommodate "NBA plans", if he already mentally has his bags packed and what kind of mental obstacle it would be to commit to another year of academics.

2. Does he want to take another year of pounding and potential injury and not get paid for it?

NOTHING would make me happier than to have another year of Kyle, the greatest warrior I've seen wearing Duke blue. And if he DOES come back, does he move back to more of an inside role, (since we're losing Lance and Zoubs) or stay more on the perimeter? But that's getting ahead of things, I know.

One more (potential) question: IF Kyle comes back, how do you justify keeping him on the perimeter if Irving, Nolan, Dre and Seth prove to be superior shooters from range?

While I agree with most that Kyle should come back, the fact that Coach K is going so hard after players like Roscoe Smith, Terrance Ross, Carrick Felix, Trey Zeigler, etc. makes me wonder. There are many other reasons for this that include Kyle coming back for his senior yr - added depth, etc, but it seems like K wouldn't mind adding more than one of these players, which makes me wonder even more that Kyle may indeed be going pro after this season regardless of his shortcomings.

[PhillyDuke]

Kyle's still a baller. He contributes a LOT to the team despite his shots not falling. They have him curling around the elbow a lot and taking a lot fade-aways and other shots while he's still moving away from the basket. He doesn't get a lot of looks where he can square his body. Those type of shots may not be for him.

He'll be alright, just watch!

[uh_no]

1. I wonder, since Kyle has apparently adjusted his class schedule to accommodate "NBA plans"

care to elaborate?

[johnb]

Singler's fun to watch, and he works hard on defense and is scrappy, and from what I can tell from tv is a very likable guy, but he isn't ready for the NBA until he can demonstrate a consistent ability to hit the contested 15 and 20 footers that he has been consistently missing this year. It's still only January, though, and all he really has to do is show the ability to dominate in the tournament to become a potential NBA starter (which is presumably what a 1st round pick is expected to eventually be). And it's not NBA flattery to say that he's second to Scheyer this year (or behind Mason in potential).

But if he doesn't really pick up steam, he might profit from an additional year learning the small forward spot as a Duke starter (as opposed to the 11th man for Oklahoma City) and continuing to work on his body in actual games and the Duke weight room rather than in practice and hotel gyms. Henderson's situation was different since he was mostly getting drafted because of athleticism, which wouldn't get better in a year (he's averaging under 3 points/game, btw).

[slower]

care to elaborate?

Wasn't it mentioned somewhere that he has no classes before (I think) 11AM so that he can work out in the morning? Of course, trying to eradicate early classes is a goal of MANY college students, isn't it? :D

I wasn't trying to read anything more into it than that - sorry if it implied something else. But I still wonder about the basic question I asked. If he has the mindset of "I'm going pro after this year", would it be hard to re-adjust mentally to the thought of one more year of classes? Just a thought.

Just to be clear - Kyle is one of my all-time top 5 Duke players and I am in NO way trying to say anything negative about him. I'd LOVE another year of him.

[RepoMan]

While I agree with most that Kyle should come back, the fact that Coach K is going so hard after players like Roscoe Smith, Terrance Ross, Carrick Felix, Trey Zeigler, etc. makes me wonder. There are many other reasons for this that include Kyle coming back for his senior yr - added depth, etc, but it seems like K wouldn't mind adding more than one of these players, which makes me wonder even more that Kyle may indeed be going pro after this season regardless of his shortcomings.

I suspect that, at the moment, neither Kyle nor K know whether Kyle will be back next year. I further suspect that, learning from past experience, K is recruiting based on an assumption that any and all of his best players might leave early.

[rotogod00]

While I agree with most that Kyle should come back, the fact that Coach K is going so hard after players like Roscoe Smith, Terrance Ross, Carrick Felix, Trey Zeigler, etc. makes me wonder. There are many other reasons for this that include Kyle coming back for his senior yr - added depth, etc, but it seems like K wouldn't mind adding more than one of these players, which makes me wonder even more that Kyle may indeed be going pro after this season regardless of his shortcomings.

not if he's not projected to go in the 1st round, he won't

[pfrduke]

not if he's not projected to go in the 1st round, he won't

Well, we don't really know that either. As others have surmised, he may have been on a 3-year plan the whole time, and may already have put all his eggs in the NBA basket. I mean, there were not a whole lot of us who expected Shavlik Randolph to leave after his junior season, but he did.

I'll certainly be more surprised if he leaves if the scout/gm/analyst consensus has him as a borderline first rounder, but I won't necessarily be shocked.

[MB in MD]

Count me among those that feel that as good a player as Kyle is for us, with his current game he is not an outstanding 3 prospect at the next level, nor would he be drafted high on the basis of upside. At the start of the year, I read an attribution from a scout (that I can't find anymore) that said Kyle's chance of a high draft position would be determined largely based on whether his 3 pt FG% started with a 4. I also think he needs to be stronger with the ball. Not saying he can't get there, but so far I don't see it.

Would an extra year help? I don't know. But I also don't see him staying unless we got to the Final 4 and lost and he felt he could make the difference next year.

[Sgt. Dingleberry]

I think several different posters have described the same thing regarding Kyle...

He's not a 4 in the NBA, but he doesn't have the jump shot to be sought after as a 3 yet...If he isn't athletic enough to beat college 3's off the dribble, it isn't going to suddently happen in the NBA...

This probably won't be a well received opinion, but Singler reminds me of Brian Cardinal who went to Purdue and has hung around the NBA for awhile...

It's all about the development of that long range jumper for Kyle...

[Bob Green]

One fact I haven't seen discussed in this thread is injuries. Kyle is currently hampered by a sprained wrist and earlier in the year he was banged up with an ankle injury. He has played through those injuries and is putting up some impressive numbers:

1. 7.3 rpg (leads team)
2. 23 steals (leads team)
3. 15 blocks (second on team)
4. 15.8 ppg (third on team)

https://www.nmnathletics.com//pdf4/667010.pdf?ATCLID=204874106&SPSID=22724&SPID=1845&DB_OEM_ID=4200

[Greg_Newton]

Kyle is an excellent rebounder and defender at the 3, and a very good shooter at times. However, his ballhandling and hands have gotten shaky to the point that I felt he was an offensive liability at the 3 last night. 12 points on 12 shots, 5 turnovers and 1 assist is a detrimental offensive stat line, and there will several other times he lost the ball and barely recovered it, disrupting the flow of the offense.

He has put up the occaisonal 20-point game, but not without 16-17 shots. He has shot 37% since the ACC "phase" began with an 0.67 A/TO ratio, and is getting 1.21 PPS for the year, the lowest of all of our starters (1.145 since the ACC phase).

IMHO, his role in the offense needs to be seriously rethunk. I don't like seeing him dribble on the perimeter, really, at all. I'd like to see him focus his energy on moving off the ball, using his size to get favorable position to catch the ball (posting up, yes, but also by cutting), and keeping the ball high and finishing in the lane while popping out for the 3 occaisonally. Maybe use him as a screener for some pick and pops. I'd also like to see him stay more vertical and controlled when driving, so he can use his height to get quick shots off over defenders and keep his options open. No need to bend forward so much and shrink himself to the defender's height.

He has considerable offensive skills... I just don't think they're currently being utilized in a way that is most effective and least detrimental to the team. Hopefully we figure out what that is as the season progresses.

[dukestheheat]

I do think that, for the most part, right now Kyle isn't showing he's ready to go to the league after this season (as a first-round pick). He's a super warrior for Duke and solid for the college game, but for his size and projected role in the pros, he is going to need to show considerable improvement and impact from here on out if he's going to get serious looks from the pros for a first-round draft spot.

dth.

[DevilHorns]

What I've noticed much more of late is how often Kyle gets blocked with a drive. He isn't athletic enough to soar over a big defender, and he isn't crafty enough (a la Jon Sheyer or Nolan Smith) to consistently alter his own shot and still put up a high % shot. I think he is much better 3-5 feet around the rim then taking it to the hole. I'm not sure how NBA scouts would interpret that, or if Im just picking up on something that really isnt there. What yall think?

[wilko]

I know Singler is a bit off the pace..

I tend to think that his shooting slump is due to busting tail on D.

He has a handle... he is one of 3 players that we really want dribbling right now. On D hes having to help Thomas, Zoubs (who cant move), and various Frosh and Soph's that blow assignments.

Give the guy a break, hes busting his tail.

[rotogod00]

What I've noticed much more of late is how often Kyle gets blocked with a drive. He isn't athletic enough to soar over a big defender, and he isn't crafty enough (a la Jon Sheyer or Nolan Smith) to consistently alter his own shot and still put up a high % shot. I think he is much better 3-5 feet around the rim then taking it to the hole. I'm not sure how NBA scouts would interpret that, or if Im just picking up on something that really isnt there. What yall think?

indeed he is; his problem, though, is at the next level, he's not going to play much down there. just not strong enough.

[devildownunder]

On the other hand, missed threes can also lead to fast break points for the other team. I think Kyle should keep firing away when he's open, but it was good to see him have better shot selection last night.

exactly, effeciency from 3pt range vs 2 is not accurately reflected by merely converting an equivalent percentage. There are disadvantages to the missed 3pt shot that don't exist for the missed 2. That's why you want 3pt shooters to be much closer to 40% for it to truly be a "plus" stat for your offense.

[dukelion]

Another reason Kyle would really benefit from staying four years is to really try and improve his handle.

He had great ball skills for a big man but they are just average for a perimeter player, in fact at times I've actually cringed when he drove the lane because you could sense that the ball would eventually be deflected and often times this year it has.

With that said I think he's finally figuring out how to be effective on the wing. He seems to be taking his man to the hoop more often by using his height to get a shot off in the paint.

A fourth year would really help him refine his game. Sitting on an NBA bench won't help him too much.

[CDu]

A fourth year would really help him refine his game. Sitting on an NBA bench won't help him too much.

I have to disagree with this. Practicing and playing against NBA players is probably the only way you can learn how to play at the NBA level. Duke is a very good place to play and learn, and the ACC has very talented opposition. But the level of competition just doesn't compare to what he'll see in the NBA. Further, having the ability to devote yourself full-time to developing your game (as opposed to being only a part-time basketball player while in school) is a big advantage in terms of development.

There are plenty of reasons why Singler should stay. But developing his game isn't one of them. He may be able to improve his draft stock by staying and having a more developed game next year than this year. But I absolutely believe he'd develop his game more in the NBA next year than in college.

[Kedsy]

I have to disagree with this. Practicing and playing against NBA players is probably the only way you can learn how to play at the NBA level. Duke is a very good place to play and learn, and the ACC has very talented opposition. But the level of competition just doesn't compare to what he'll see in the NBA. Further, having the ability to devote yourself full-time to developing your game (as opposed to being only a part-time basketball player while in school) is a big advantage in terms of development.

There are plenty of reasons why Singler should stay. But developing his game isn't one of them. He may be able to improve his draft stock by staying and having a more developed game next year than this year. But I absolutely believe he'd develop his game more in the NBA next year than in college.

I agree with this for the most part, especially with regards to shooting. After watching them in college, if Rodney Rogers and Patrick Ewing can become three-point threats in the NBA (which they did in their prime, at least to a certain extent), then I want a pitcher of whatever it is they're drinking up there.

But there is something you can get in college that you can't get in an NBA practice, and that is confidence. There is an intangible to most if not all top players where they truly believe they can't be stopped and thus they'll try things that an ordinary mortal wouldn't try -- and they succeed some percentage of the time, which obviously wouldn't have happened if they didn't have the confidence to make the move in the first place. Obviously I can't prove it, but there are players who leave college before they get to that lofty mental state and they'll never reach it while getting schooled in an NBA practice. Others have it coming out of high school so it doesn't matter when they enter the draft. I'm not sure Kyle has that yet, which is the only developmental reason I think he might be able to benefit from another year at Duke. Having said that, I think the determining factor for him will be projected draft position, and we won't know that until April.

[pfrduke]

I agree with this for the most part, especially with regards to shooting. After watching them in college, if Rodney Rogers and Patrick Ewing can become three-point threats in the NBA (which they did in their prime, at least to a certain extent), then I want a pitcher of whatever it is they're drinking up there.

This Patrick Ewing (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ewingpa01.html)? Who shot 15% from 3 on his career and never made more than 6 in a season?

Rodney Rogers shot 35% from 3 in college and then 35% from 3 in the NBA. He always had a decent outside shot.

[Kedsy]

This Patrick Ewing (http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ewingpa01.html)? Who shot 15% from 3 on his career and never made more than 6 in a season?

Rodney Rogers shot 35% from 3 in college and then 35% from 3 in the NBA. He always had a decent outside shot.

OK, perhaps I overspoke, but in college Ewing rarely if ever took a shot outside of two feet. The fact he could take a three point shot from NBA range and hit the rim was a major development.

Regarding Rogers I haven't looked up the stats, but my recollection of him at Wake is that he rarely took outside shots and in the NBA he took and hit a lot of them -- I think he had one game where he hit 7 or 8 three-pointers. And you have to remember how much farther the NBA line is than the college line. All I'm saying is NBA players develop their shots more effectively than most college players do.

[pfrduke]

OK, perhaps I overspoke, but in college Ewing rarely if ever took a shot outside of two feet. The fact he could take a three point shot from NBA range and hit the rim was a major development.

Regarding Rogers I haven't looked up the stats, but my recollection of him at Wake is that he rarely took outside shots and in the NBA he took and hit a lot of them -- I think he had one game where he hit 7 or 8 three-pointers. And you have to remember how much farther the NBA line is than the college line. All I'm saying is NBA players develop their shots more effectively than most college players do.

I certainly agree with the latter point - Ewing and Rogers may just not have been the best examples.

[Newton_14]

Coach K made some interesting points today on his daily DBR update on the radio. He talked about Kyle's game and stated they were really working to get Kyle better scoring opportunities with limited dribbling.

He specifically stated that one of the problems is Kyle is dribbling too far to create scoring opportunities and the approach they are trying to take is to get him the ball in positions on the floor where he can take 1 or 2 dribbles and be ready to pull the trigger.

He said that it was not that Kyle is a bad ball handler, but it is just not the best way to utilize his skills.

Something to look for in the next few games. I expect we will see more of Kyle coming off the little curls from the baseline flashing into or near the lane for catch and shoots or catch 1 or 2 dribbles and shoot. He emphasized that if Jon and Nolan handled the heavy lifting of dribbling/ball handling it would ease the pressure a bit on Kyle and put him in better situations.

I think if they make that a focal point and execute properly it will help Kyle be a more efficient scorer.

[jv001]

Coach K made some interesting points today on his daily DBR update on the radio. He talked about Kyle's game and stated they were really working to get Kyle better scoring opportunities with limited dribbling.

He specifically stated that one of the problems is Kyle is dribbling too far to create scoring opportunities and the approach they are trying to take is to get him the ball in positions on the floor where he can take 1 or 2 dribbles and be ready to pull the trigger.

He said that it was not that Kyle is a bad ball handler, but it is just not the best way to utilize his skills.

Something to look for in the next few games. I expect we will see more of Kyle coming off the little curls from the baseline flashing into or near the lane for catch and shoots or catch 1 or 2 dribbles and shoot.

I think if they make that a focal point and execute properly it will help Kyle be a more efficient scorer.

Based on Coach K's comments, we'll see Kyle taking less 3 point shots. This makes sense in that his confidence should go up and his stroke from 3 point territory should improve. Go Duke!

[Verga3]

Kyle is still adapting this year as has been mentioned. He is fine, and I predict he will have another strong body of work at the end of the day. I understand that he absolutely loves being a student-athlete at Duke in every way. One more year will significantly enhance his future draft position as a 3 (or 4) in the NBA. Nothing can replace a completed senior year at Duke. A chance to have your jersey hanging in Cameron certainly sounds great, but so does having one more year with Coach K and being able to enjoy your senior year at Duke University. Put into perspective, that can never be replicated.... I don't care how many zeros the NBA shows. Talk to Shane.

[devildownunder]

I'm not sure that I understand all of the angst over Kyle's play this year. Obviously, he could be shooting the ball better and certainly, he could be taking some better shots. But, he is averaging 15+ pts. and 7+ rebounds a game right now. Perhaps this all stems from everyone thinking that Kyle would have to be the one to replace the bulk of the scoring after the departure of Gerald. Perhaps we are having a hard time letting loose of our preseason excpectations for Kyle. Jon has increased his scoring by 5+ pts/game and Nolan has increased his scoring by 10+ pts/game. Last year G averaged 16.5 pts/game. Gerald's scoring has been accounted for, just not from the person we thought would be doing the scoring.

Instead of relishing in the improvement of Jon and Nolan (more so Nolan). We are wringing our hands over a kid averaging 15/7. We currently have 3 players averaging 15+ points/game. Is it reasonable or even logical to expect to have 3 players averaging 18+ points/game? How many teams in college basketball have ever had that type of production? My knowledge is limited, but I don't believe it has ever happened at Duke.

I guess that what I am trying to say is take a step back and look at what we have as a whole. We are 14-2 and ranked in the top 10. Our two losses have come at the hands of a Wisconsin team that not only shot lights out that game but has since proven to be a very good team, and a Georgia Tech team with two future NBA first rounders and refs that apparently call rugby games for a living. We have an All-American type player (just not the one everyone was expecting) and 3 All-ACC type players.

This ship is not sinking (not that anyone says it is).

Is Kyle capable of better? Yes. But, so are Mason and Miles. That, to me, is what makes this team so much fun to watch and root for. If the worst thing that Kyle does this year is average 15 and 7, I will be quite happy with that.

(On a side note, while I would never hope for any player to have a down year, the silver lining to Kyle only averaging 15/7 could be that his draft stock drops and he returns for his senior season and hopefully a national title defense.;))


There are several threads and countless posts about jon and nolan's progress this year -- all full of praise. I've made some of those posts myself. This thread is about Singler. It would seem to me that it would be natural for folks to want to see him look as good as he did last year, if not better. Since at times this year such has not been the case, people are naturally asking why. One of the main reasons this happens is because people realise that if we can get all of our talent operating at maximum efficiency, this team can have a magical season. And, yes, I do realize the guys are having a pretty darn good year as it is. In fact, Singler appears to be getting more comfortable these days. OUTSTANDING!

I really don't see what the problem is with discussing why a player may not be doing as well as you'd hoped. The guy's not getting skewered on the boards, by any means.

[Jackson]

I've always been a huge Kyle Singler fan. I think a lot of people here, myself included, see him as having the ability to be a special player. I think expectations are so high, that anything less than national POY or at least ACC POY kind of year seems like a bit of a disappointment.

[duke4life32182]

Kyle needs to post up and take 6-8 shots in the paint a game. He for the most part is taller than other teams 3's. He needs to start in the paint and work his way out as he gets in the flow of the game. Once teams start double teaming on him in the paint, other guys will get open and then he may create some space for himself on the outside, so that he hasn't got to force shots. He has started doing this lately and his game has become better. I believe his game is about to go up a level though. Once he realizes his size is a asset he will be even better.

[rotogod00]

Singler has dropped to 59 in Chad Ford's Top 100, with a "Second round to undrafted" projection

btw, Scheyer is 67 and MP2 is 73

[Kedsy]

Singler has dropped to 59 in Chad Ford's Top 100, with a "Second round to undrafted" projection

btw, Scheyer is 67 and MP2 is 73

Does that mean he thinks there's a chance MP2 would come out this year? I can't imagine that.

[rotogod00]

Does that mean he thinks there's a chance MP2 would come out this year? I can't imagine that.

No, since he's only 73

[Kedsy]

No, since he's only 73

Well, I get that, but why is he rated at all? I'm sure there are other underclassmen who are playing better than MP2 right now who aren't rated at all because there's no chance they'll come out (MP1, for example). Why isn't Mason in the same boat?

[rotogod00]

Well, I get that, but why is he rated at all? I'm sure there are other underclassmen who are playing better than MP2 right now who aren't rated at all because there's no chance they'll come out (MP1, for example). Why isn't Mason in the same boat?

list is based on what he hears from scouts and front office personnel of nba teams. mason apparently has more nba potential than MP1 and the like

[CDu]

Well, I get that, but why is he rated at all? I'm sure there are other underclassmen who are playing better than MP2 right now who aren't rated at all because there's no chance they'll come out (MP1, for example). Why isn't Mason in the same boat?

I wouldn't be surprised if Mason is on the radar simply because of his size, athleticism, raw skills, and hype (it doesn't hurt to have media types talking about you as Duke's most talented player). As you know, the NBA drafts on potential rather than performance. And a 6'10"/6'11" guy with decent ballhandling ability, a willingness to bang, and great leaping ability almost has to be on the radar.

[rotogod00]

I wouldn't be surprised if Mason is on the radar simply because of his size, athleticism, raw skills, and hype (it doesn't hurt to have media types talking about you as Duke's most talented player). As you know, the NBA drafts on potential rather than performance. And a 6'10"/6'11" guy with decent ballhandling ability, a willingness to bang, and great leaping ability almost has to be on the radar.

and there's this ;-)

[Kedsy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Mason is on the radar simply because of his size, athleticism, raw skills, and hype (it doesn't hurt to have media types talking about you as Duke's most talented player). As you know, the NBA drafts on potential rather than performance. And a 6'10"/6'11" guy with decent ballhandling ability, a willingness to bang, and great leaping ability almost has to be on the radar.

I understand he's on the radar. I just thought Chad Ford's list consisted of guys who had more than a zero percent chance of coming out, that's all.

[CDu]

I understand he's on the radar. I just thought Chad Ford's list consisted of guys who had more than a zero percent chance of coming out, that's all.

I doubt Ford really talks to the players (and I'm fairly sure the NBA scouts aren't allowed to talk to the players), so I'd imagine he doesn't have much of an idea on the likelihood of a player entering the draft. I think his lists are just based on what the NBA folks think of the players who could potentially declare. I'd be surprised if he really factors in "likeliness to declare" into his list at this point in the game. Maybe when April/May rolls around he'll take a closer look at that (when players start making statements about their intentions).

[superdave]

I think Chad Ford's sources are mostly scouts and GM's around the league.

This occasionally has bad consequences because he pushed Darko (#2 after LeBron, ahead of Bosh, Wade, Melo) although Ford apparently doesnt ever see guys like Darko play and does not himself have a scouting background.

[dukelion]

Hard to argue anything in the report.

Right now looks like Kyle is a late first to second rounder. They also make a good point about his shooting form and how it's curious why he doesn't shoot a higher percentage.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/NCAA-Weekly-Performers-2410-3388/

[greybeard]

I think that Kyle will benefit greatly in his draft position if he stays and has hurt his chances by pressing to much to score the ball this season.

First, the second point. It is rare to see Kyle catch and get rid of it. Perhaps that is by instruction; in fact, it might well be. I think that by always looking to score first Kyle in fact hurts his offensive effectiveness. Why? The game either has a flow or it doesn't; right now for Kyle, it doesn't. Getting rid of it and creating space, moving around without an intention of creating his next opportunity necessarily, might well be very helpful. Also, it is difficult for a defender to maintain intensity off the ball when he knows that a guy will one touch it to someone else and move.

Now the first second. Kyle will benefit in his offensive game because of the speed interjected into the offense by the incoming point, what's the kid's name, Irving? The kid will break down defenses, get the ball up court with greater tempo, and up the tempo at which Duke plays. I think that that will help Kyle's flow tremendously, cause him to see the ball coming from different and better angles, and be utilizing much more his ability to see the game.

Kyle is playing from a perspective right now that is entirely new to him, and there is a learning curve. I think it's a good thing if K is now committed to getting him catches inside the 3-line, and agree with the poster who said curls off inside screens for a 15-17 footer aka Rip Hamilton couldn't hurt.

Like many players used to playing small against bigs, and that would include Ryan, Kyle is used to building his game in a game from the inside out. Putting pressure on the defense to try to stop him from catching it mid range or even closer, hurting them when he does, and then, when he is in the flow of the game, drifting out for a 3 or 2, and then slipping near the baseline at 15 for a catch and shoot, then at the foul line extended a foot or two, for either a shot or a dribble or at most two to the rim, with enough left to vary his finishes.

The real problem for Kyle I think is a lack of real speed on the exterior, and a failure to create pressure at the rim through pass penetration, something we haven't seen since Shelden's day. Shelden, like the greats before him, Boozer and Brand to be specific, was a great one for getting position, holding it, and being able to finish while a defender tried in vain to get him off balance as he lengthened to score. We have yet to see pass-penetration to guys who have room, or pass penetration for guys to play the pivot and create ball movement by distributing to others.

In short, I do not like how this offense presents, and do not think that even getting Kyle closer looks will make a big enough difference to warrant his leaving early, when the prospects for a much more fluid flow to the offense is just around the corner.

Yes, I have been purposefully having fun with numbers; I write poorly but not this poorly usually. Just trying to keep your minds sharp.

[MChambers]

I've been thinking about Kyle's future, and trying to identify comparable players. One name that keeps popping up is Matt Harpring, who has had a pretty nice NBA career.

So I ran the comparable players tool at www.scacchoops.com and got, from more similar to less:

Brandon Costner 854.00
Chris Williams 846.24
Mike Dunleavy 824.36
KC Rivers 799.00
Gerald Henderson 798.41
Junior Burrough 797.76
Terence Morris 793.79
Julius Hodge 783.00
James Forrest 781.76
Trevor Booker 781.64
Len Bias 778.96
Jeff Allen 777.34
Matt Harpring 767.34
Grant Hill 759.32
Mark Alarie 758.38

Some interesting names on the list, to say the least.

[-bdbd]

I am seriously hoping Kyle stays to enjoy what could be a terrific Senior year (for Duke as well as him), and as the "main man" in our offense.

Duke willl clearly be a top-10 team next year, and assuming we get one of our primary wing targets remaining, should have FF potential.

He does seem to finally be hitting his stride a bit more recently. Let's hope that continues. Would like to see an early-March sort of peak...



:D

[Kedsy]

I've been thinking about Kyle's future, and trying to identify comparable players. One name that keeps popping up is Matt Harpring, who has had a pretty nice NBA career.

So I ran the comparable players tool at www.scacchoops.com and got, from more similar to less:

Brandon Costner 854.00
Chris Williams 846.24
Mike Dunleavy 824.36
KC Rivers 799.00
Gerald Henderson 798.41
Junior Burrough 797.76
Terence Morris 793.79
Julius Hodge 783.00
James Forrest 781.76
Trevor Booker 781.64
Len Bias 778.96
Jeff Allen 777.34
Matt Harpring 767.34
Grant Hill 759.32
Mark Alarie 758.38

Some interesting names on the list, to say the least.

What do they base it on? There aren't many players on that list whose games I would rate as similar to Kyle's.

[MChambers]

What do they base it on? There aren't many players on that list whose games I would rate as similar to Kyle's.

It's purely statistical. Explanation here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_Comparable_Description.asp

Some of the players are pretty good matches, I think (Harpring, Alarie, Dunleavy), but some seem terrible. But part of it may be how versatile Kyle is, so that he can seem similar to a power player like Junior Burrough or a wing like Julius Hodge.

[dukelion]

Well his 3pt% just went from 33% to 37% in a single game.

That's pretty impressive.

Kyle definitley seemed to be shooting quicker and in rythym.

The new motion offense seemed to give him more catch and shoot oppurtunities and he delivered big time.

Now it would be nice to see him do it on the road.

[greybeard]

I think that Kyle was playing in a more familiar role; beginning with catches much closer to the rim, attacking and drawing fouls, and then running from baseline, past screens to a catch behind the line, while executing an extraordinary turn into a shooting position, all of which works perfectly for him. This fits with what he kinows; he organizes his body to make this shift in momentum into a very familiar, reliable movement of ball and body from going away from the basket to going into shooting mode. An incredible athletic move that few can make and is very difficult to defend--the defender is trailing and would run him over if tried to seriously contest what for most would be an impossible shot. Offensive players feed off of doing that which exercises dominion and Kyle certainly did.

One would expect to see more of this inside out play to set up the rest of Kyle's game in the future. Whether Duke will still deploy with Kyle playing more like a classic three who catches beyond the line coming off an off the ball screen that brings him parellel to the basket, we'll see.

My suggestion is for Kyle to work on that aspect of his game from in close and in feigned slow motion, walk speed with no jumping, but making believe you are dribbling or moving without the ball at speed and from distance. The law of just noticeable differences that underlies most sensory, cognitive, and learning experiences operate on the principle that the lower the starting amplitude, the easier it is to notice the impact of slight differences. The feels and sequences that Kyle needs to find will be discernible in that context. Practicing, as I am sure he does, with repetitions done at hyper speed with the notion that slowing down will be easier is wrong headed for the type of learning that Kyle needs. Nevertheless, it is precisely the way high end trainers training high end athletes think progress can be made. While that might work for a person who already has a skill set and the already discovered and mastered the feels and associated skills that comprise a sequence, it is counterproductive for the type of learning that Kyle is after.

Yeah, I know, it sounds like old Grey slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Or, it just might be that in this instance my considerable experience with ,and serious study of, precisely such matters makes me sort of an expert. :o