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houstondukie
01-08-2010, 03:05 PM
I actually think UNC is better this season compared to next season. Yes, they have a very talented recruiting class coming in with Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall, but they are losing Marcus Ginyard (senior), Deon Thompson (senior), and Ed Davis (lottery pick). Here's a look at UNC's projected lineup next season:

PG Larry Drew Jr.
SG Dexter Strickland So.
SF Harrison Barnes Fr.
PF John Henson So.
C Tyler Zeller Jr.

Bench:
PG Kendall Marshall Fr.
SG Reggie Bullock Fr.
SG Leslie McDonald So.
SF Will Graves Sr.
PF David Wear So.
PF Travis Wear So.

If John Henson does not improve significantly by next year, UNC's frontcourt will be awful. Ironically, UNC needed Barnes more than Duke. Roy's 2009 recruiting class looks like a huge flop.

Duvall
01-08-2010, 03:14 PM
I actually think UNC is better this season compared to next season. Yes, they have a very talented recruiting class coming in with Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall, but they are losing Marcus Ginyard (senior), Deon Thompson (senior), and Ed Davis (lottery pick). Here's a look at UNC's projected lineup next season:

PG Larry Drew Jr.
SG Dexter Strickland So.
SF Harrison Barnes Fr.
PF John Henson So.
C Tyler Zeller Jr.

Bench:
PG Kendall Marshall Fr.
SG Reggie Bullock Fr.
SG Leslie McDonald So.
SF Will Graves Sr.
PF David Wear So.
PF Travis Wear So.

If John Henson does not improve significantly by next year, UNC's frontcourt will be awful. Ironically, UNC needed Barnes more than Duke. Roy's 2009 recruiting class looks like a huge flop.

Way, way too early to tell, and "awful" is simply not accurate. Zeller has impressed everyone except Roy Williams in his limited minutes, and Henson would probably be a lot more effective at PF. And the Wears should be adequate minute eaters next year. They'll be fine.

Plus, Ed Davis hasn't actually declared for the draft yet.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:14 PM
I actually think UNC is better this season compared to next season. Yes, they have a very talented recruiting class coming in with Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock, and Kendall Marshall, but they are losing Marcus Ginyard (senior), Deon Thompson (senior), and Ed Davis (lottery pick). Here's a look at UNC's projected lineup next season:

PG Larry Drew Jr.
SG Dexter Strickland So.
SF Harrison Barnes Fr.
PF John Henson So.
C Tyler Zeller Jr.

Bench:
PG Kendall Marshall Fr.
SG Reggie Bullock Fr.
SG Leslie McDonald So.
SF Will Graves Sr.
PF David Wear So.
PF Travis Wear So.

If John Henson does not improve significantly by next year, UNC's frontcourt will be awful. Ironically, UNC needed Barnes more than Duke. Roy's 2009 recruiting class looks like a huge flop.

I wouldn't jump to your conclusions for a few reasons:
1. It remains to be seen if Davis will indeed go pro. After all, if being a lottery pick was his concern, he'd have gone last year. I think it is probable that he goes, but I wouldn't etch it in stone just yet. Maybe the lure of playing with a better set of perimeter players will lure him back for one more year.
2. I wouldn't rule out Marshall for the starting PG spot, and I wouldn't rule out McDonald or Bulluck for the starting SG spot.
3. We just don't know how good any of their young players will be next year. It could be that Henson figures it out at the 4 and becomes the star everyone thought he'd be. It could be that the freshmen guards figure it out and are impact sophomores. And it could be that one or more of the 2010 class is an absolute beast.

It's way too early to call a freshmen class a bust. I mean, we could play a similar game with our lineup next year if Singler leaves along with Scheyer, Zoubek, and Thomas. Then we'll have a pretty inexperienced and unproven team almost across the board, except for Smith. If you can assume big progress from our freshmen/sophomores, then I think it's only fair to assume big progress from their freshmen/sophomores.

JDev
01-08-2010, 03:16 PM
It is way too early to call the current freshman crop a bust. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that UNC could have five new starters next year. Marshall/Bullock/Barnes could be a better 1-3 than Drew/Strickland/whomever. Thompson will definitely be gone, and if Davis has any sense he will be gone. Who knows how all of that shakes out though.

houstondukie
01-08-2010, 03:20 PM
Perhaps it is too early, but I think Davis is gone for sure.

I remember how UNC fans were saying that Barnes is a luxury for them, not a necessity. In retrospect, Barnes may be their savior next year.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:25 PM
Perhaps it is too early, but I think Davis is gone for sure.

I remember how UNC fans were saying that Barnes is a luxury for them, not a necessity. In retrospect, Barnes may be their savior next year.

I think the key for them will be the PG position. They'll be good enough in the post with four (or five if Davis returns) big guys, and Barnes/Graves available to play the 4 as well. But Roy Williams teams are ultimately only as good as the guy pushing the tempo. If Drew/Strickland/Marshall are better PG next year than Drew/Strickland this year, and if Strickland/Bulluck/McDonald/Barnes/Graves are better perimeter scorers next year than Strickland/McDonald/Ginyard/Graves this year, they'll likely be better next year even with the step back in the frontcourt.

houstondukie
01-08-2010, 03:25 PM
I wouldn't jump to your conclusions for a few reasons:
1. It remains to be seen if Davis will indeed go pro. After all, if being a lottery pick was his concern, he'd have gone last year. I think it is probable that he goes, but I wouldn't etch it in stone just yet. Maybe the lure of playing with a better set of perimeter players will lure him back for one more year.
2. I wouldn't rule out Marshall for the starting PG spot, and I wouldn't rule out McDonald or Bulluck for the starting SG spot.
3. We just don't know how good any of their young players will be next year. It could be that Henson figures it out at the 4 and becomes the star everyone thought he'd be. It could be that the freshmen guards figure it out and are impact sophomores. And it could be that one or more of the 2010 class is an absolute beast.

It's way too early to call a freshmen class a bust. I mean, we could play a similar game with our lineup next year if Singler leaves along with Scheyer, Zoubek, and Thomas. Then we'll have a pretty inexperienced and unproven team almost across the board, except for Smith. If you can assume big progress from our freshmen/sophomores, then I think it's only fair to assume big progress from their freshmen/sophomores.

As a Duke fan, I would love to see UNC start:

PG Kendall Marshall Fr.
SG Reggie Bullock Fr.
SF Harrison Barnes Fr.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:28 PM
As a Duke fan, I would love to see UNC start:

PG Kendall Marshall Fr.
SG Reggie Bullock Fr.
SF Harrison Barnes Fr.

Be careful what you wish for. Just because they're freshmen doesn't necessarily mean they won't be ready.

Huh?
01-08-2010, 03:31 PM
That lineup looks like trouble for UNC (from what I have seen this year and what I think I know about the incoming Freshmen). Who is going to score? We all know Roy's teams don't put defense priority number 1 and without someone who can consistently put the ball in the basket that's trouble.
Davis and Thompson will be gone and they are the players carrying the bulk of the load this year. I agree, this Freshman class is beginning to look like a bust.

BD80
01-08-2010, 03:34 PM
Like ol' roy said: "I don't give a sh!t about carolina!"

Frankly, I don't think a general discussion about carolina next year deserves to be on the Elizabeth King Forum any more than a general discussion of any of our other opponents' rosters next year. In my mind it is comparable to, and less interesting than, describing dog poo.

CameronCrazy'11
01-08-2010, 03:37 PM
I don't think they will be bad, but I really don't see where all this talk of them being a championship contender next year is coming from (other than their rear ends, of course). Davis is putting up some phenomenal numbers this year, and with his boundless upside, will be a top-5 pick easily. Zeller is a pretty good big man, would probably play at Duke, but isn't the kind of guy who will dominate teams like Hansbrough did. Larry Drew does not look a year away from being a championship caliber point guard. Their '09 has been much less impressive than many were expecting, and does not look ready to form the core of a championship team. That puts a lot of the pressure on their '10 class, who although very good, will still be freshmen, and other than Barnes, don't look like potential all-Americans right off the bat.

Ultimately, I question who from their 2010-11 team would even get to play 25+ minutes on their 2008-09 team. Freshman Barnes over Senior Danny Green? OK, maybe. Junior Zeller over Junior Thompson? Probably. So, they might have two guys as good as their 4th and 5th options from their last title team, but no trio that comes close to Lawson, Hansbrough, and Ellington. They can still be a very good team if things work out well for them, but I'm just not seeing how that team can come close to going all the way.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:37 PM
That lineup looks like trouble for UNC (from what I have seen this year and what I think I know about the incoming Freshmen). Who is going to score? We all know Roy's teams don't put defense priority number 1 and without someone who can consistently put the ball in the basket that's trouble.
Davis and Thompson will be gone and they are the players carrying the bulk of the load this year. I agree, this Freshman class is beginning to look like a bust.

Again, it's too early to call any freshmen class a bust. Are Plumlee and Kelly busts because they aren't double-digit scorers?

I'm sure the Heels will have offense next year. I suspect that at least a few of Barnes/Bulluck/McDonald/Strickland will become capable scorers. Zeller is already a pretty capable scorer. As I said before, I think it's way too early to start writing off this freshmen class, and WAY too early to suggest that next year's team will be weak.

NSDukeFan
01-08-2010, 03:38 PM
Be careful what you wish for. Just because they're freshmen doesn't necessarily mean they won't be ready.

Kentucky this year has 3 freshmen starting, including #1 in his class, and they are so far doing ok.

dukelifer
01-08-2010, 03:39 PM
Like ol' roy said: "I don't give a sh!t about carolina!"

Frankly, I don't think a general discussion about carolina next year deserves to be on the Elizabeth King Forum any more than a general discussion of any of our other opponents' rosters next year. In my mind it is comparable to, and less interesting than, describing dog poo.

UNC will get much better this season- all their returning players will improve over the summer. It is way too early for this discussion.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:39 PM
Kentucky this year has 3 freshmen starting, including #1 in his class, and they are so far doing ok.

Exactly.

CameronBornAndBred
01-08-2010, 03:45 PM
You can hardly start a topic on DUKE basketball for next season without getting runover by the "too early" train, so I don't think you should expect much better for the holes. Choo-chooooo.

GarrickB28
01-08-2010, 03:52 PM
Exactly.

John Wall is an entirley different beast than Kendall Marshall/Bullock or even Barnes.

Huh?
01-08-2010, 03:54 PM
Again, it's too early to call any freshmen class a bust. Are Plumlee and Kelly busts because they aren't double-digit scorers?

I'm sure the Heels will have offense next year. I suspect that at least a few of Barnes/Bulluck/McDonald/Strickland will become capable scorers. Zeller is already a pretty capable scorer. As I said before, I think it's way too early to start writing off this freshmen class, and WAY too early to suggest that next year's team will be weak.

Well then it's WAY to early to suggest Barnes/Bulluck/McDonald/Strickland will become capable scorers.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:54 PM
John Wall is an entirley different beast than Kendall Marshall/Bullock or even Barnes.

Again, you have no real idea if that's true or not until you actually see the freshmen play next year. It may be true that none are as good as Wall, but perhaps the combination of the three is as good or better than the combo of Wall/Bledsoe/Cousins. You just never know until you see them play.

CDu
01-08-2010, 03:56 PM
Well then it's WAY to early to suggest Barnes/Bulluck/McDonald/Strickland will become capable scorers.

And where did I say that the will certainly become capable scorers? I said that I suspect that some of them will. There's a big difference. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, WE JUST DON'T KNOW MUCH AT ALL ABOUT HOW UNC WILL LOOK NEXT YEAR! That applies both in terms of them looking good or looking bad.

shoutingncu
01-08-2010, 04:18 PM
...Their '09 has been much less impressive than many were expecting, and does not look ready to form the core of a championship team...

I think this is the key, as I was one one the ones who said Carolina was trying to form a championship core (during the HB recruitment). I think that many Heels hoped that Strickland or McDonald, Henson and Zeller would make a very good trio, being supplemented with Bullock and Marshall next year (prior to the Barnes commitment), much as Hasbrough, Frasor, Ginyard and Green weren't going to win any championships without the influx of talent in '07. That said, the '06 foursome played better than this year's freshmen, so you're right... there is a lot of pressure on the Class of '10.

My fear now is that it will take a year for that team to gel, and the ceiling may not be reached until the year after when we may lose Barnes, Henson (if he breaks out in his sophomore campaign), Zeller (ditto-- he likely didn't burn his redshirt intending to stay four years), Davis (although I assume he's gone this year) and any number of other variants.

But I'm all for looking ahead to next season... anything to take the focus off CofC, Royd Rage or RoeGate.

PhillyDuke
01-08-2010, 05:14 PM
The real question is: Will we have anyone with the strength and quickness to stop Barnes. If we do, who? Hopefully Josh Hairston can be that guy, because Barnes is going to be a force to contend with.

houstondukie
01-08-2010, 06:32 PM
The real question is: Will we have anyone with the strength and quickness to stop Barnes. If we do, who? Hopefully Josh Hairston can be that guy, because Barnes is going to be a force to contend with.

Carrick Felix.

Dukeface88
01-09-2010, 01:41 AM
Carrick Felix.

Or Terrence Ross. Or Trey Zeigler. Or TaShawn Mabry. Or Kyle stays and we get Quincy Meiller next year. We're really not short on wing prospects.

On the topic of this thread; I'd expect improvement, only because it will be difficult for them to get much worse. We'll still be better.

BoozerWasFouled
01-09-2010, 02:30 AM
This is an interesting topic of discussion. It's ridiculous to say "you never know about freshmen," because you can know within certain perameters.

Thompson and Davis are gone (yes Davis is gone, Terry Davis is openly discussing using this year to improve draft stock). That leaves them small and thin in the frontcourt, however talented a scorer Zeller has been in spurts this year. Zeller and Wears down there is barely an ACC frontcourt.

Ginyard is gone. That leaves them without a perimeter defender. Larry Drew is a solid point guard, but he wouldn't start on a number of ACC teams. With him, they essentially are playing a back-up caliber PG as their starter.

On the wing, they will have Barnes. Huge upgrade over Graves and will be counted on to be the team's leading scorer.

Strickland has showed flashes--he could be quite good and I could definitely see him in their starting rotation. However, Henson is far from having the skills to play the three, and far too thin to play the four. In my opinion, Henson is not going to overcome these problems in one year. He is a project.

In conclusion, Carolina has a mediocre PG as their starter, and a sub-ACC frontcourt. They will be talented but youthful on the wing. In my opinion, that works out to a 7-8 seed tourney team.

ice-9
01-09-2010, 08:32 AM
The biggest question mark about UNC by far is Henson.

He was supposed to be a stud this year, a top 5 recruit who would've gone straight to the NBA had it not been for some arbitrary 1-year rule, a sure fire one and done who will be selected in the lottery come June. A perpetual, uber athletic mismatch with the skills of a PG and the body of a PF. (Albeit a skinny one.)

So far however he's been more Olek than Beasely.

The big question then is...which Henson is going to appear next season?

If the former, UNC may not have enough to be a championship contender. If the latter, yikes...they'll be fine.