Gerald Henderson write up on lack of playing time in NBA

[buckshot]

http://dimemag.com/2010/01/gerald-henderson-on-the-struggles-of-being-an-nba-rookie/

[buckshot]

Unfortunate, because other rookies drafted after him are getting good minutes. I wonder if this is more about LB not wanting to play rookies, the talent at that position in Charlotte (really?), or if G is struggling with some aspect of the NBA game? Or maybe MJ lost a bet.:confused:

[PhillyDuke]

Too bad. IMO it's better to play an addtional year in college than to sit on an NBA bench as a rookie. Your game can't develop without playing time.

[CDu]

Unfortunate, because other rookies drafted after him are getting good minutes. I wonder if this is more about LB not wanting to play rookies, the talent at that position in Charlotte (really?), or if G is struggling with some aspect of the NBA game? Or maybe MJ lost a bet.:confused:

I think it's a bit of all three:
1. The Bobcats have Stephen Jackson ahead of him, and Jackson is averaging 20ppg in 40mpg;
2. Henderson is struggling to adapt to the NBA game;
3. Brown doesn't like to play marginal rookies, so he plays then veteran Ronald Murray as the backup SG.

[Kedsy]

G is running into exactly the problem I expected. The guys ahead of him in the rotation are either much taller (Wallace, 6'7"; Jackson, 6'8"; Diaw, 6'8") or they are considered to be shooters (Murray) or PGs (Felton, Augustin, Law). Until his shooting improves enough to be a true NBA "2", G is a little short to play a lot of minutes at the "3" in the NBA.

[stillcrazie]

Hard to say, but would you rather sit on the bench for $1.9 million or play your senior year?

[WiJoe]

Hard to say, but would you rather sit on the bench for $1.9 million or play your senior year?

Answer your own question. IMO, that $1.9 million, and then some, would have been there had he stayed.

[Highlander]

Too bad. IMO it's better to play an addtional year in college than to sit on an NBA bench as a rookie. Your game can't develop without playing time.

I can think of $6,311,520 reasons why it was better for Hendo to go to the NBA instead of play an additional year in College.

[CDu]

Answer your own question. IMO, that $1.9 million, and then some, would have been there had he stayed.

Maybe. Or maybe he would have hurt his stock by not developing more. Or maybe he would have incurred a serious injury. There is a long list of guys who would have been lottery picks but hurt their draft stock by sticking around an extra year (or two).

[SilkyJ]

I can think of $6,311,520 reasons why it was better for Hendo to go to the NBA instead of play an additional year in College.

That depends on how much he NEEDS that $6.3m. For all we know, he's got a nice little multi million trust fund and/or inheritance coming his way.

10years in the NBA will earn you some mula.

[Highlander]

Answer your own question. IMO, that $1.9 million, and then some, would have been there had he stayed.

Assuming his basketball career (college and pro) is X number of years, then he would have lost $1.9M in future earnings by staying in College an additional year. If his draft stock would have been noticeably improved enough to compensate for that 1 year, then your point would be correct. Otherwise, he would have lost a year's salary by staying in college.

Granted, I selfishly wish he'd stuck around :)

[stillcrazie]

I remember hearing that because this year's draft would be more competitive, the chances for G going in the first round were significantly diminished. As much as I wanted him to stay, it makes it easier to understand why he left when he did.

[Matches]

Even if he didn't have an injury or an ineffective senior year, it's likely a deeper draft would have hurt G's stock had he stayed for his senior year. I would've liked to see him stay too, but IMO he made the best decision for himself by going.

As to the lack of PT, the boy has GOT to learn to go to his left. He also needs better range - his jump shot from 18-20 feet is pretty good but he needs to be able to extend it to the NBA 3pt line.

[stillcrazie]

Even if he didn't have an injury or an ineffective senior year, it's likely a deeper draft would have hurt G's stock had he stayed for his senior year. I would've liked to see him stay too, but IMO he made the best decision for himself by going.

Thanks -- that's what I was trying to say.

[CDu]

Even if he didn't have an injury or an ineffective senior year, it's likely a deeper draft would have hurt G's stock had he stayed for his senior year. I would've liked to see him stay too, but IMO he made the best decision for himself by going.

As to the lack of PT, the boy has GOT to learn to go to his left. He also needs better range - his jump shot from 18-20 feet is pretty good but he needs to be able to extend it to the NBA 3pt line.

Agreed on all counts. I doubt that, between his dad and Coach K, Henderson would have made an irrational decision to go too early.

As for his NBA, I agree with you and Kedsy. Henderson has (to a lesser degree) the same problem that befell Nelson. He's got the game of a SF but the size of a guard. Nelson had the size of a PG which made things worse for him. But for Henderson, he needs to improve his ballhandling, improve his ability to go left, and improve his shooting and range. Otherwise, he needs to grow about 3 inches. If he can do either of those things (I'd say the former is more likely :)), he can become an impact player at SG. But until then, he's a backup, and backups can fall prey to rotation issues.

[Wildcat]

I believe there is much to learn from the sidelines of the NBA experience. Basketball is also a mental game as well. This year with limited time can give G the perspective, focus and maturity that he will need to be successful at the pro level. Talking with teammates and veterans about the experience can pay huge dividends for him in the long run; thus making him a more complete player.

Look at JJ. He is a perfect example of the sideline experience. He is logging significant minutes now for a decent team. He has found his niche and apparently is continuing to develop. I believe there is a prevailing perception in the basketball world that our players don't develop here. perhaps that's why some leave early; even though they know they aren't ready. Plus, I would take 1.9 million a year to sit on the bench and learn from some vets. You've gotta pay your dues; JJ paid his; and G is paying his.

[CDu]

I believe there is much to learn from the sidelines of the NBA experience. Basketball is also a mental game as well. This year with limited time can give G the perspective, focus and maturity that he will need to be successful at the pro level. Talking with teammates and veterans about the experience can pay huge dividends for him in the long run; thus making him a more complete player.

Look at JJ. He is a perfect example of the sideline experience. He is logging significant minutes now for a decent team. He has found his niche and apparently is continuing to develop. I believe there is a prevailing perception in the basketball world that our players don't develop here. perhaps that's why some leave early; even though they know they aren't ready. Plus, I would take 1.9 million a year to sit on the bench and learn from some vets. You've gotta pay your dues; JJ paid his; and G is paying his.

I disagree with the bolded section. For example, both Redick and Henderson developed quite a bit at Duke. Redick went from being a prolific shooter to a very versatile scoring threat, and became a much better defender. Henderson went from being simply an athlete to having a fairly diverse scoring game. Both have/had limitations that require continued development at the NBA level (only a handful of guys come from college ready to dominate in the NBA).

[yancem]

Assuming his basketball career (college and pro) is X number of years, then he would have lost $1.9M in future earnings by staying in College an additional year. If his draft stock would have been noticeably improved enough to compensate for that 1 year, then your point would be correct. Otherwise, he would have lost a year's salary by staying in college.

Granted, I selfishly wish he'd stuck around :)
NBA teams play twice as many games in a season than college teams. Their season is also longer and they play more games a week. An nba season is much more punishing to a player's body than a college season. So I don't think that staying college for an additional year would adversely effect the length of a players nba career. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the guys that were drafted right out of high school ended up retiring at a younger age than 3-4 year college players. It would make for an interesting study.

[stillcrazie]

NBA teams play twice as many games in a season than college teams. Their season is also longer and they play more games a week. An nba season is much more punishing to a player's body than a college season. So I don't think that staying college for an additional year would adversely effect the length of a players nba career. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the guys that were drafted right out of high school ended up retiring at a younger age than 3-4 year college players. It would make for an interesting study.

This may be true and would make an interesting study, but in G's case, I think the fact that this year's draft is going to be more competitive was a big influence on his decision.

[NSDukeFan]

Look at JJ. He is a perfect example of the sideline experience. He is logging significant minutes now for a decent team. He has found his niche and apparently is continuing to develop. I believe there is a prevailing perception in the basketball world that our players don't develop here. perhaps that's why some leave early;
I think your JJ comparison is a good one and expect G will also contribute when he improves and/or has a good situation.

I disagree with the bolded section. For example, both Redick and Henderson developed quite a bit at Duke. Redick went from being a prolific shooter to a very versatile scoring threat, and became a much better defender. Henderson went from being simply an athlete to having a fairly diverse scoring game. Both have/had limitations that require continued development at the NBA level (only a handful of guys come from college ready to dominate in the NBA).
But I have to agree with this and in regards to development at Duke would have to say: "see Scheyer, Jon."

[Kedsy]

Assuming his basketball career (college and pro) is X number of years, then he would have lost $1.9M in future earnings by staying in College an additional year. If his draft stock would have been noticeably improved enough to compensate for that 1 year, then your point would be correct. Otherwise, he would have lost a year's salary by staying in college.

It's more pronounced than that. His basketball career will not be "x number of years." More likely it will be "until age y." Which means he will play one more NBA year than he would have if he'd stayed at Duke. Which means the year he would have lost was not his first year, but his last, a year where odds are he will be making significantly more than the rookie salary (even after discounting for the time value of money).

The other side of the financial coin is how developed he is when his second contract rolls around (which, unlike the rookie contract, is not a pre-fixed amount). If he's sufficiently advanced to score a big contract at that point he'll make a lot more money than if he's perceived as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. If an added year of college development could have made him a better enough player to demand a bigger contract after his (I think) third year, then it might have made more sense to stay. Unfortunately, it's impossible to know in advance whether that will be true or not, so the safe play for G was to go out and grab the money.

[oldnavy]

Answer your own question. IMO, that $1.9 million, and then some, would have been there had he stayed.

There are somethings that money cannot buy. One is time. No matter how much cash you have in your bank account you only get to go through your life and each phase of it one time. G made the decision that the cash was worth a year of his life (college life). That was his choice, and now he has to live with it. Sure the money would have been there if he had waited, but he will never get the chance to be a college student and play in the NCAA tourny again. He will have plenty of years to earn or try to earn more money, both as a NBA player and after the NBA. Was the 1.9M worth it? Only he can answer that question, and I bet the answer may be different today, than it will be in 10-20 years as he gets older...

I have always wondered for those who put their faith or hope in money, how much is enough? How do you know you have enough? Not trying to be over spiritual here, but really, how would you know?

[stillcrazie]

There are somethings that money cannot buy. One is time. No matter how much cash you have in your bank account you only get to go through your life and each phase of it one time. G made the decision that the cash was worth a year of his life (college life). That was his choice, and now he has to live with it. Sure the money would have been there if he had waited, but he will never get the chance to be a college student and play in the NCAA tourny again. He will have plenty of years to earn or try to earn more money, both as a NBA player and after the NBA. Was the 1.9M worth it? Only he can answer that question, and I bet the answer may be different today, than it will be in 10-20 years as he gets older...

I have always wondered for those who put their faith or hope in money, how much is enough? How do you know you have enough? Not trying to be over spiritual here, but really, how would you know?

I agree with this sentiment, but I don't know how many athletes think this way. I wonder what kind of voodoo Ol' Roy used on his kids to get them to stay.

[sagegrouse]

I believe there is a prevailing perception in the basketball world that our players don't develop here. perhaps that's why some leave early; even though they know they aren't ready.

You need to cite sources for "prevailing perception." With respect to the ground truth of player development at Duke, IMHO (warning that the H is often silent), this statement is a canard on the order of "Duke players don't do well in the NBA" or "Wojo is too short to coach big men."

Rather than an exhaustiing statistical survey, let me take a different approach:



Coach K is widely acknowledged to be one of the all-time best college coaches, and on this site that is the prevailing wisdom. Do you mean to say that he doesn't develop players?

Duke's hallmark is intense defense, which most of us can agree is a strange concept to most freshman, even at Duke. Isn't teaching team and individual defense player development? The same could be said about many aspects of the offensive game at Duke.

An NBA executive chose K to be the U.S. team coach for the World Championships and the Olympics. He has been so successful that he was asked to return for a second Olympics. The players, all NBA stars, have had universally positive things to say about playing for K, even amateur Duke hater Chris Paul.

As one of a thousand other examples, professional Duke hater Larry Brown (I was present at the Heyman-Brown dust-up in 1961) said at the time G. was drafted that "coming from Duke, you know he has been well coached." I mean is there any evidence that the NBA avoids Duke players? Then why are there more Duke players in the NBA than any other school?


sagegrouse

[Rudy]

The roundabout debate about leaving early will hardly every be resolved. For some players it will be a good decision and for others it will not turn out as they hoped. From a pure economic standpoint, it's probably better to leave early if one's predicted draft status is good.

But there is a subjective factor these arguments usually leave out. Will a player who leaves early miss an aspect of his life, senior year on the team, that he can never recapture? Does that player have unfinished business as a college player? If a player is relatively secure in being able to make millions as a pro-player whether or not he leaves early I can certainly see staying. Is that final triumphant year as a senior worth 10% of one's basketball career earnings? What's two million if one can reasonably expect to make $20 M or more over that career?

[kingboozer]

I knew he would see no playing time as soon as Charlotte drafted him. Larry Brown won't do it, and its a shame I'd love to see what Gerald could do if given a chance on the floor.

[_Gary]

I knew he would see no playing time as soon as Charlotte drafted him. Larry Brown won't do it, and its a shame I'd love to see what Gerald could do if given a chance on the floor.

Absolutely. Several Duke players in recent years have had the misfortune of being drafted into terrible situations with coaches that just were not going to play them a lot early on. Dunleavy, Jason Williams, Redick, and now Henderson. They all could have done much more right off the bat, but in every situation they were playing for coaches that were idiots. Yes, I think Larry Brown is an idiot. I also don't think it's beyond the realm of imagination to think Brown has too light a shade of blue glasses on to really give Gerald a chance this year.

[Kedsy]

I also don't think it's beyond the realm of imagination to think Brown has too light a shade of blue glasses on to really give Gerald a chance this year.

You realize Brown has a lot of say so in who Charlotte drafts, right? If he was prejudiced against G, why did he draft him?

[PhillyDuke]

I don't think G's game was ready to make the jump to the NBA. I wish he'd stayed in school and worked on his left handle and his jumper. I he had, he would have lit NCAA up, and been a lottery pick in this year's draft--and perhaps we would have cut down nets.

You simply can not develop you're game sitting on the bench.

[_Gary]

You realize Brown has a lot of say so in who Charlotte drafts, right? If he was prejudiced against G, why did he draft him?

I'm not saying he's that prejudiced to pass up on a guy who's athleticism, and consequently upside, is off the charts. But if it comes down to playing either Gerald or another guy who is basically on the same level, perhaps Larry would allow his allegiances to powder blue to cloud his judgment just a tad. Heck, I just dislike the guy all the way around, and it wouldn't surprise me if where Gerald went to college didn't play a minor roll in this. I'd hope that's not the case, but I personally wouldn't dismiss it out of hand altogether. Again, I'm not saying Brown would keep a great player on the bench just for that reason. But when it's a toss up between one bench player and another? Maybe.

For the record, I think the biggest problems have already been mentioned (a couple of superior guards in front of Gerald and Brown's penchant for not playing rookies). I just added another small ingredient to the stew. Whether it's true or not I don't know. I just wouldn't put it past Brown because he seems to be that type of egotistical guy to me.

[Kedsy]

I'm not saying he's that prejudiced to pass up on a guy who's athleticism, and consequently upside, is off the charts. But if it comes down to playing either Gerald or another guy who is basically on the same level, perhaps Larry would allow his allegiances to powder blue to cloud his judgment just a tad. Heck, I just dislike the guy all the way around, and it wouldn't surprise me if where Gerald went to college didn't play a minor roll in this. I'd hope that's not the case, but I personally wouldn't dismiss it out of hand altogether. Again, I'm not saying Brown would keep a great player on the bench just for that reason. But when it's a toss up between one bench player and another? Maybe.

For the record, I think the biggest problems have already been mentioned (a couple of superior guards in front of Gerald and Brown's penchant for not playing rookies). I just added another small ingredient to the stew. Whether it's true or not I don't know. I just wouldn't put it past Brown because he seems to be that type of egotistical guy to me.

Well, Brown does have a lot of flaws, but he allowed his daughter to marry Quin Snyder, and he hired Billy King and worked voluntarily with him for years. I can't imagine he would draft G and then not play him because he went to Duke.

[_Gary]

Well, Brown does have a lot of flaws, but he allowed his daughter to marry Quin Snyder, and he hired Billy King and worked voluntarily with him for years. I can't imagine he would draft G and then not play him because he went to Duke.

You're probably right, but I just can't stand the guy and do think he has an ego problem. But maybe that wouldn't factor in. All I know is that Gerald is getting a raw deal in Charlotte at the moment. He absolutely should be playing more than he is.

[pfrduke]

... Jason Williams ...

Um, Jay played over 26 mpg, starting 54 of his 76 games. His minutes compare favorably with (as one recent example) Deron Williams, who averaged just over 28 mpg and started just 47 games in his first year. Jay also struggled as a rookie, shooting just .399/.322/.640. Hard to say his coach was an "idiot" who didn't play him enough.

[sagegrouse]

Well, Brown does have a lot of flaws, but he allowed his daughter to marry Quin Snyder, and he hired Billy King and worked voluntarily with him for years. I can't imagine he would draft G and then not play him because he went to Duke.

How did that Quin Snyder thing work out?

Seriously, Larry Brown has been a great coach in many different situations. He only has two titles (Kansas and Detroit) but many of his teams have done extremely well. The main problem, quoting his long-time friend Tony Kornheiser (Larry was his camp counsleor), is that after a few years, "Larry begins to hate his players, and they begin to hate him." Consequently his record of tenure and endurance is not nearly as good as his win-loss record.

sagegrouse

[chrisheery]

It is a good thing that Joe Dumars drafted Darco instead of D Wade or Melo or the NBA would be missing one of their superstars. Or at least they would have for a year or two while Larry Brown was still there.

He's a good coach, but he just doesn't play rookies.

[cato]

NBA teams play twice as many games in a season than college teams. Their season is also longer and they play more games a week. An nba season is much more punishing to a player's body than a college season. So I don't think that staying college for an additional year would adversely effect the length of a players nba career. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the guys that were drafted right out of high school ended up retiring at a younger age than 3-4 year college players. It would make for an interesting study.

Even if this turns out to be true, there is a very significant advantage to earning money this year instead of next year. The longer you can put money to work, the more you can earn from it. And you cannot make it up on the back end -- that is where all the real gains are, if you use your money wisely.

In other words, if you consider two hypothetical careers, with the same amount of total salary, the career that starts earlier can be much, much more lucrative than the second, simply because of the timing.

Time is inexorable and non-negotiable.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Well, Brown does have a lot of flaws, but he allowed his daughter to marry Quin Snyder, .

Did his daughter really need his permission?

[hq2]

Well, if he had stayed another year, would he have developed an NBA 3 point shot? If not, maybe he was better off going when he did. Some players are actually better going early while pros still see more "potential". Once they realize that the potential will not be fully realized, their draft stock drops (see Josh McRoberts and Joakim Noah). If he had not developed a good 3 point shot, the NBA might have concluded he wasn't going to get much better and drafted him lower. He might have been better off before they figured that out.

[Duvall]

Absolutely. Several Duke players in recent years have had the misfortune of being drafted into terrible situations with coaches that just were not going to play them a lot early on. Dunleavy, Jason Williams, Redick, and now Henderson. They all could have done much more right off the bat, but in every situation they were playing for coaches that were idiots. Yes, I think Larry Brown is an idiot. I also don't think it's beyond the realm of imagination to think Brown has too light a shade of blue glasses on to really give Gerald a chance this year.

I find that impossible to believe. These are professionals, men that have dedicated their lives to the goal of succeeding at the highest levels of the sport, and you are suggesting that one of them, even a Tar Heel, would risk that over rivalry nonsense? It doesn't make sense.

[_Gary]

Um, Jay played over 26 mpg, starting 54 of his 76 games. His minutes compare favorably with (as one recent example) Deron Williams, who averaged just over 28 mpg and started just 47 games in his first year. Jay also struggled as a rookie, shooting just .399/.322/.640. Hard to say his coach was an "idiot" who didn't play him enough.

While Jason got to play a solid number of minutes and games, he was hampered by a coach who refused to let him loose and play the way he really could. He was held down by Bill Cartwright, who refused to let him play the pick and roll and kept him on a rollercoaster with Crawford for playing time. It was not the ideal situation was Jason by any stretch. In fact I distinctly remember the one game where he scored a triple-double was the one in which Cartwright was not coaching (being away for a family emergency or something like that). It was very glaring that the biggest issue was with the coaching philosophy. Yes, I think Cartwright was an idiot. Is he coaching now? Oh many titles has he won as a head coach? Are teams clammoring to get him as their head coach? I think we all know the answers.

I rest my case.

[CDu]

Did his daughter really need his permission?

Any self-respecting Southerner would say yes. Of course, any self-respecting Southerner would also say that the odds are slim that the father would ever say no to his daughter.

[CDu]

Absolutely. Several Duke players in recent years have had the misfortune of being drafted into terrible situations with coaches that just were not going to play them a lot early on. Dunleavy, Jason Williams, Redick, and now Henderson. They all could have done much more right off the bat, but in every situation they were playing for coaches that were idiots. Yes, I think Larry Brown is an idiot. I also don't think it's beyond the realm of imagination to think Brown has too light a shade of blue glasses on to really give Gerald a chance this year.

Jason Williams? Really? I'll ignore the fact that Henderson has definite limitations that make it completely understandable why his minutes have been limited early on, but Jason Williams? The guy was a starter for pretty much his whole NBA career (one year). He was drafted #2 and the Bulls were going to build around him. The only problem was that he had a horrific motorcycle accident that effectively ended his career.

I think you're way off base here. Williams was in a good situation and unfortunately had a horrible accident. Furthermore, Dunleavy was a 30+ mpg player from his second year in the NBA. How is that not a good situation? Redick had athleticism issues, and simply needed to find a niche. Henderson simply has a SF game (right now) with a SG body, and thus is a bit of a project at the NBA level. I think you're barking up the wrong tree on these guys. Of them, only Redick is even the closest to being drafted into a "terrible" situation.

[_Gary]

Jason Williams? Really? I'll ignore the fact that Henderson has definite limitations that make it completely understandable why his minutes have been limited early on, but Jason Williams? The guy was a starter for pretty much his whole NBA career (one year). He was drafted #2 and the Bulls were going to build around him. The only problem was that he had a horrific motorcycle accident that effectively ended his career.

I think you're way off base here. Williams was in a good situation and unfortunately had a horrible accident. Furthermore, Dunleavy was a 30+ mpg player from his second year in the NBA. How is that not a good situation? Redick had athleticism issues, and simply needed to find a niche. Henderson simply has a SF game (right now) with a SG body, and thus is a bit of a project at the NBA level. I think you're barking up the wrong tree on these guys. Of them, only Redick is even the closest to being drafted into a "terrible" situation.


Did I or did I not frame the "terrible situation" around the coaches each had to play for? I believe I did, and if I didn't make that clear let me do so now. All four of the Duke players I mentioned were drafted into bad situations because they had to play for coaches that, for one reason or another, didn't play and coach them to their full potential for a first year player. They were all hampered to one degree or another, and ultimately I see each of their situations the same in terms of the coaches.

Bottom line, we disagree on this point in the strongest terms possible. I think you are way off base here, but to each his own.