Olympic Fan
01-07-2010, 01:39 PM
Just thought I'd update the three major college basketball computer rankings.
Interesting that the computers LOVE West Virginia. Duke ranks No. 2 in the RPI and in Pomeroy; No. 3 in Sagarin.
Pomeroy also ranks Duke as the No. 1 offense and No. 5 defense in the country (basically based on points per possession, not scoring totals).
The most interesting things to me were the strength of schedule (SOS) rankings by the three major computer systems:
Pomeroy rates Duke's non-conference SOS as No. 117 in the country. That doesn't sound that great, until you consider that it's the second-best of any top 10 team and third-best out of the top 25.
Sagarin says pretty much the same thing -- No. 87 non-conference SOS -- the second toughest schedule in the top 10.
RPI gives Duke the No. 14 SOS.
By contrast, our neighbors from down the road currently rank No. 45 (Pomeroy); No. 34 (Sagarin) and No. 60 (RPI). Despite their tough games with Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky, one thing that's hurting them is their SOS -- UNC ranks 155; 181 and 71 in the three SOS rankings. Sagarin notes that UNC is 1-3 against the top 50 (Duke is 3-1 against the top 50).
I think all this shows that computers will continue to overvalue playing good but not great teams -- UNC has played five really solid teams (Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State -- which is dropping now, but was a top 50 team when Evan Turner was healthy -- and Michigan State) but the rest of their OOC opponents (six in the bottom 100) are woeful. By contrast, Duke has played just two teams in the bottom 100 (Gardner Webb and Penn).
Interesting that the computers LOVE West Virginia. Duke ranks No. 2 in the RPI and in Pomeroy; No. 3 in Sagarin.
Pomeroy also ranks Duke as the No. 1 offense and No. 5 defense in the country (basically based on points per possession, not scoring totals).
The most interesting things to me were the strength of schedule (SOS) rankings by the three major computer systems:
Pomeroy rates Duke's non-conference SOS as No. 117 in the country. That doesn't sound that great, until you consider that it's the second-best of any top 10 team and third-best out of the top 25.
Sagarin says pretty much the same thing -- No. 87 non-conference SOS -- the second toughest schedule in the top 10.
RPI gives Duke the No. 14 SOS.
By contrast, our neighbors from down the road currently rank No. 45 (Pomeroy); No. 34 (Sagarin) and No. 60 (RPI). Despite their tough games with Texas, Syracuse and Kentucky, one thing that's hurting them is their SOS -- UNC ranks 155; 181 and 71 in the three SOS rankings. Sagarin notes that UNC is 1-3 against the top 50 (Duke is 3-1 against the top 50).
I think all this shows that computers will continue to overvalue playing good but not great teams -- UNC has played five really solid teams (Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Ohio State -- which is dropping now, but was a top 50 team when Evan Turner was healthy -- and Michigan State) but the rest of their OOC opponents (six in the bottom 100) are woeful. By contrast, Duke has played just two teams in the bottom 100 (Gardner Webb and Penn).