Charting Duke vs. Iowa State

[Jumbo]

Jon Scheyer was the star of the show in his Chicago homecoming game. But the one area where it's tough for him to separate himself is plus/minus -- that's what happens when you never leave the court. And that's why, in this thread, Lance Thomas is the guy who really shines. Posters have already pointed out elsewhere how well he defended Brackins and how nice a job he did of making himself an offensive factor -- both shooting and passing. Well, his plus/minus numbers back that up. Duke was outscored by 11 points when he was out of the game, and just look at how some of the lineups without Thomas performed. That's a stunning impact. I also have a sneaking suspicion that by the end of the year, Duke's best lineup will include Thomas and Mason Plumlee as the bigs.
Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Lance Thomas 73-41 (+32)
Kyle Singler 84-58 (+26)
Jon Scheyer 84-63 (+21)
Nolan Smith 79-60 (+19)
Miles Plumlee 32-23 (+9)
Andre Dawkins 14-9 (+5)
Brian Zoubek 24-24 (+0)
Jordan Davidson 2-2 (+0)
Mason Plumlee 36-38 (-2)
Steve Johnson 0-2 (-2)
Ryan Kelly 2-5 (-3)

Per 40 Minutes
Lance Thomas +42.7
Andre Dawkins +33.3
Kyle Singler +29.7
Miles Plumlee +24
Jon Scheyer +22.1
Nolan Smith +20
Brian Zoubek +0
Jordan Davidson +0
Mason Plumlee -4.2
Ryan Kelly -30
Steve Johnson -80

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x5) 30-16 (+14)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Mason (x5) 23-10 (+13)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek (x3) 15-9 (+6)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Mason-Zoubek 7-2 (+5)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas 5-2 (+3)
Davidson-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Mason 2-0 (+2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Mason 0-0 (+0)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Mason 0-1 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Mason-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Davidson-Dawkins-Johnson-Kelly-Mason 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Thomas-Kelly-Mason 0-3 (-3)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Miles (x2) 2-7 (-5)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Mason-Zoubek (x2) 2-11 (-9)

[airowe]

I could tell our defense was just not the same when Lance wasn't in the game, but these numbers clearly back it up. Quite a treat to have a guy who can defend all 5 positions in Lance and a guy who can play all 5 positions on offense in Kyle.

Thanks for the good work Jumbo!

[ice-9]

I knew Lance played well, I didn't realize how well! Eye opening, thanks Jumbo.

[Acymetric]

Totally agree about Lance. I would add that I'm not so sure about Mason. I think he's going to be key for us, but I think he's the first guy off the bench. I feel like the 5 we have starting is going to be pretty much the correct 5 all season.

[JDev]

I'm surprised Mason had a -2 individually. His stat line doesn't jump off the page by any means, but he gave quality minutes and played half of the game. You would think if you played half the game during a 20 point win, you would end up in the positive somehow.

[CDu]

I'm surprised Mason had a -2 individually. His stat line doesn't jump off the page by any means, but he gave quality minutes and played half of the game. You would think if you played half the game during a 20 point win, you would end up in the positive somehow.

Mason was on the floor during a good portion of an early run by ISU in the first half (when they eliminated our big early lead). That's unfortunately of the challenges for single-game +/-. If a guy happens to be on the floor during a quick run (for either team), it can seriously skew the results for that player (regardless of he was any reason at all). This is especially true for players who play slightly less than half of a game.

You really have to take most individual +/- numbers from a single game with a grain of salt. This is especially true for reserve players. There's just so much variability within any 2-3 minute span that a player has little to no control over. The hope is that, over a meaningful number of games/minutes, you'll get something more useful.

[SilkyJ]

I also have a sneaking suspicion that by the end of the year, Duke's best lineup will include Thomas and Mason Plumlee as the bigs.
Anyway, on to the numbers ...


My thoughts exactly. I thought last night was Mason's coming out party, even if the stat lines didn't completely show it. When he was playing well in the first half, K stuck with him for a solid 10-12 minute stretch and he played well all over the floor. Passing, shooting, rebounding, and defending he did it all and seemed VERY comfortable and confident, which is so important at this early juncture.

A major concern before the season started was whether he would have the beef/muscle to stay with good college centers. He might be a few pounds light, but I'm not overly concerned. He manned the post as our "5" well last night and I hope K continues to play him 20-30mpg.

And man, if LT can keep knocking down 12-18 footers...well then we add another weapon most people didn't expect.

[Kedsy]

He manned the post as our "5" well last night and I hope K continues to play him 20-30mpg.

Minor quibble: Since Mason has only exceeded 20 minutes once in his career (21 min v. Penn) is it even possible for K to "continue" to play him 20 to 30 mpg?

But my real question is do you really expect Mason's minutes to regularly approach 30 per game this season? I have high hopes for him, but that would surprise me.

[Hermy-own]

I agree with everything that SilkyJ said. I just want to add one point about Lance - he was WIDE open when he sank 2/3 jumpers. I mean, he had time to catch, look around, decide to shoot, then shoot. That's a lot of time. What will be interesting is to see how our offense opens up if he forces the opposing big man to guard him outside. That may open up all sorts of backdoor cuts, drives, or various other plays. Ditto with Mason - it looked like K told him that he had a tentative green light on the 3 ball. If he can hit that too... well, we saw first hand how dangerous that type of big man is when we played Wisconsin.

[ACCBBallFan]

While I do not disagree with Jumbo's hypothesis that Mason evolves into major role as te "5", the 13 lineup combos have Mason in all 8 of the bottom 8 and in only 2 of the top 5.

So far Zoubek and Miles are fouling enough to not make it an issue to play both Mason and Lance lots of minutes.

That's the plus side of bigs by committee. Each has their strengths and weaknesses that afford different looks and when one is out, another is jsut as valuable, just with a different twist.

Even when Kelly comes in, he does not hurt you. He look goofy but is very effective not unlke Zoubek in that regard.

So if coach K starts with Miles and Zoubek as his 5's and they gain some wear and tear and fouls on the other team's bigs, that softens thm up for his best center Mason to finish against a tentative big or a sub.

Though individually their stats are not all that impressive, collectively or on a per 40 MPG basis, Duke gets plenty out of its bigs, and can afford the fouls even at a 2 for 1 ratio.

[ScreechTDX1847]

Mason was on the floor during a good portion of an early run by ISU in the first half (when they eliminated our big early lead). That's unfortunately of the challenges for single-game +/-. If a guy happens to be on the floor during a quick run (for either team), it can seriously skew the results for that player (regardless of he was any reason at all). This is especially true for players who play slightly less than half of a game.

You really have to take most individual +/- numbers from a single game with a grain of salt. This is especially true for reserve players. There's just so much variability within any 2-3 minute span that a player has little to no control over. The hope is that, over a meaningful number of games/minutes, you'll get something more useful.

Exactly. These numbers will be more telling when we average out the numbers over ~20 games.