Phase III -- 2009-10

[Jumbo]

Want to know the most difficult question I faced in starting this thread? What's the proper time period for Phase III? Ideally, it's through the first UNC game, which is what I did last year. But because of expansion, Duke doesn't even play UNC until the second half of the ACC season. It's 12 games away. I went with that last year, and it felt like a long time. Another logical stopping point would be the Georgetown game -- it's the last game of the month, it's a big battle and Duke will have played 7 ACC games. But, in the end, I'll go with Feb. 4 at home against Georgia Tech -- it's the mid-point of the ACC schedule, and it's time to try something new. So, as always, here are the questions I'll be pondering as we go through this lastest phase (in no particular order -- with the exception of the first one).

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I think I've been pretty clear on where this would rank all season.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

3) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We got a good look at size against UConn, and handled it well. But we'll see big teams far more often during ACC play. And the one thing UConn didn't have was a back-to-the-basket scorer. Well, tomorrow we'll get a healthy dose of old friend Trevor Booker. You know the other names -- Favors, Lawal, Aminu, even Trapani, plus Brackins and Monroe out of conference -- and that's just this phase, before we get a look at UNC.

Duke has shown, in limited opportunities, that it can rebound and provide good help defense against teams with some size (Gonzaga too). But what will our deep frontcourt look like when they're forced to guard guys who are big and skilled with the ball? Will we end up in a lot of foul trouble? Will we double with two bigs Should be interesting to watch.

4) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
We already know a lot about Andre as a frosh. His jump shot is as pure as you'll find. His handle needs work, which is why he's primarily a spot-up shooter on offense, although he's athletic enough to finish well on the break. But the key to his impact against good teams will be his defense. Right now, we all know that he's lacking in that area. But Duke obviously needs him to play legit minutes, given the shallow backcourt. Will there be a light-bulb moment for him on D? He doesn't need to become a stopper or anything close. He just has to keep track of his assignments within the team concept so the team can function on a high level. So keep an eye on him guarding off the ball in the next few games. His progress in this area will help determine how much he can play, how versatile Duke can be (more of the small lineup with Singler at the 4) and, ultimately, how good the team can be.

5) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hi just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

6) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
He's an elite player. We can all agree on that. And his current rate of production is stunning. But can he keep up this pace against ACC foes? He has so much responsibility -- ball-handling, setting everyone up, being a major scorer, wing defense, leadership -- that it's a real heavy burden to bear. Add in the fact that he is a streaky shooter (with last season's slump being an extreme example) and there's some reason for concern.

However, I've provided evidence before that in the past, his production has increased late in the season, against top competition. Granted, he's in a different role, this season, and will be facing defense designed to stop him (with more ball pressure, I'm sure) unlike ever before. But he has a long enough track record to count on him, and I think a lot of his raw stats will remain high. It will be interesting to see if he can be remotely as efficient, though.

7) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
Can Zoubek maintain his recent high level of play? We've all been impressed with how Brian has played, and he seems to have found a nice, comfortable role that is aided by Duke's depth up front. Here's the only thing to worry about, though: He started out well last year, too. Remember the big game against Xavier with the backdoor passes and the blocked shots? Remember the double-double on New Year's Eve against Loyola? Before Jan. 1 last year, he was averaging 7.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg and 1.1 bpg. By February, he'd lost his starting spot. And after Jan. 1, he averaged just 2.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 0.7 bpg. Again, I think he's in a much better situation this year, and he's just a better player. But he'll be worth watching closely against good teams.

8) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
His numbers in the Penn game were exciting, although a lot of those stats came really late in a game that was pretty much a full dose of garbage time. Executing against ACC opponents is a totally different story. Still, I don't think it's out of the range of possibilities that 10 games from now, he emerges as the best of Duke's bigs. The biggest keys first will be whether he starts to react quicker, instinctively does fundamental things like boxing out and shields the ball and stops making iffy passes. After that, if he can face up and make plays from the elbow, clean up offensive rebounds, lobs, or good entry passes to finish inside and defend a variety of bigs straight-up, Duke will get a lot better. None of this requires his turning into a dominant big guy or playing 30-plus minutes. If he can be a really good role player who can add a dose of creativity to what is otherwise a perimeter-based attack by the end of this phase, that would be very, very good.

9) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
In tough games, Duke tends to bog down offensively. Those are the situations where Duke needs to be even more committed to making the defense work by cutting down on the dribble, increasing the motion and involving the post players. See how the guys react when the D gets tough.

10) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?
The guards in the ACC aren't great. And Duke -- especially with a healthy Mason Plumlee -- still has some ability to pressure the ball and the wings. With a lineup of, for instance. Scheyer, Smith, Singler, Thomas and Mason, you can do all sorts of things -- switch off screens, trap, extend. Thomas could guard a problematic wing or even a point guard. It would be nice to know that in games where the half-court offense isn't working, Duke will be able to force turnovers and get out and run. This period will be the perfect time to see whether K is willing to extend a bit more. Duke worked on a zone for a long time against Penn, and we might see it in spurts. But man-to-man is this team's bread and butter, and I don't think it has to be a containment man D all the time.

I tried to keep the questions below 10, because I didn't want to mention something specific for every player and I wanted to leave some room for future phases. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about the distribution of minutes up front, about how K will utilize Ryan Kelly, etc. I could've thrown a bunch of other stuff in (and I feel like I forgot one thing, which I might add). But otherwise, this is a good list to watch with specific, attainable goals in mind.

[Bob Green]

Thanks for another great phase analysis. It is a pleasure to actually read and discuss Duke Basketball on DBR. It seems at least 50 percent of the threads these days are about Kentucky and Carolina. Oh well, moving forward...


2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?

...So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there...Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

Singler is currently the team's third leading scorer (15.9 ppg) and second leading rebounder (7.2 rpg). These are not shabby numbers but everyone's expectations of Singler were sky high coming into the season so there is a false perception Singler is having a down year to date. As we are about to start ACC conference play, it is a good time for Singler to assert himself and turn in some dominant performances. As Jumbo states, Singler presents a match-up problem that Duke needs to exploit. I like the idea of inverting the offense with Singler posting up a smaller player and believe the team will be able to execute that strategy with Mason Plumlee in the line-up due to his ability to handle the ball and pass out on the perimeter. When Mason moves out to the perimeter his defender will have to go with him, which isn't the case with some of our other big men.



3) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?

But Duke obviously needs him to play legit minutes, given the shallow backcourt. Will there be a light-bulb moment for him on D?

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?

The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

I lumped these two questions together because in my mind they are interconnected. Duke needs Dawkins to make strides defensively because they need him on the court stretching opponent's defenses beyond their comfort zone. Without going overboard, and making the type of extravagant statement I'm frequently guilty of making when I allow my emotions to override my brain, I believe we need Dawkins to average 10 points a game during ACC play and beyond. Dawkins is a pure shooter who adds a leathal dimension to our offense. We need him on the court.


6) Will Zoubek dip like last season?

Can Zoubek maintain his recent high level of play? We've all been impressed with how Brian has played, and he seems to have found a nice, comfortable role that is aided by Duke's depth up front. Here's the only thing to worry about, though: He started out well last year, too.

I sure hope not. Duke has four players taller than 6'10" but three of the four are youngsters. Duke needs Zoubek's experience and leadership on the court. Zoubek is the guy who needs to be a steady influence upon the youngsters. A mainstay of Duke Basketball has been the tradition of seniors guiding underclassmen and teaching them the Duke Way. Zoubek's 7.7 rebounds and 7 points per game are important, but it is his experience Duke will need when the games get tough in hostile environments on the road in the ACC.



9) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?

The guards in the ACC aren't great. And Duke -- especially with a healthy Mason Plumlee -- still has some ability to pressure the ball and the wings. With a lineup of, for instance. Scheyer, Smith, Singler, Thomas and Mason, you can do all sorts of things -- switch off screens, trap, extend. Thomas could guard a problematic wing or even a point guard. It would be nice to know that in games where the half-court offense isn't working, Duke will be able to force turnovers and get out and run.

The defense has been very good. Duke held Gonzaga to 38 points below their season average. Was that an aberration? Well, Duke also held Connecticut to a season low 59 points which is 16 points below their season average. So against two Top 15 teams the defense dominated. So that leads me to ask the obvious: Why try and fix something that isn't broke? However, we all know basketball is a dynamic sport with constantly changing match-ups and situations so I am all for tinkering with things in order to improve. With the perceived lack of quality guards in the ACC pressuring the ball with Smith and Thomas seems to be a solid option.

What has me beeming with optimism as the team enters Phase III is that this team appears to be a team that is still developing and coming to terms with their strengths and weaknesses. This is a team that looks like it will be much stronger in March (and hopefully April) than it was it November and December.

[Mcluhan]

Very nicely done. These are indeed the relevant questions.




2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

My thoughts exactly-- now that I've read your thoughts, that is! Ferry and Laettner both had success with a good mix of inside/outside moves, and while each of these guys is different, I think both past players provide good examples of where Kyle might fit into the offense. It will also get him to the line, which is critical to our success down the road. If you're not getting to the line, you're not only scoring less, but you're not putting pressure on the opposing coach. Kyle's averaging fewer than 4 FTs a game thus far, and I'd love to see that number doubled over the next month.


4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hi just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

We'd be smart to assume that, if not a mirage, it is something that will certainly desert us in an important game this month. We don't currently have much of a plan B, and rather than look to Mason or Miles for the answer to this one, I'm inclined to put it to the Big 3 first.

We might do well to think of free throws as insurance against missed 3s. If we're hitting 5-10 more FTs a game, that's 2+ 3s that we don't need.



5) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
He's an elite player. We can all agree on that. And his current rate of production is stunning. But can he keep up this pace against ACC foes? He has so much responsibility -- ball-handling, setting everyone up, being a major scorer, wing defense, leadership -- that it's a real heavy burden to bear. Add in the fact that he is a streaky shooter (with last season's slump being an extreme example) and there's some reason for concern.

However, I've provided evidence before that in the past, his production has increased late in the season, against top competition. Granted, he's in a different role, this season, and will be facing defense designed to stop him (with more ball pressure, I'm sure) unlike ever before. But he has a long enough track record to count on him, and I think a lot of his raw stats will remain high. It will be interesting to see if he can be remotely as efficient, though.

I'd forgotten about Scheyer's slump last year.

With all the responsibilities this guy has, his role as the PG/primary ballhandler is the most important. I find myself wishing for a relatively risk-free way to prepare Nolan for the unfortunate possibility that he might have to resume full time PG duties at some point, a la the couple games that Hurley missed in '92, when Grant took over much of the ballhandling.


8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
In tough games, Duke tends to bog down offensively. Those are the situations where Duke needs to be even more committed to making the defense work by cutting down on the dribble, increasing the motion and involving the post players. See how the guys react when the D gets tough.


I mentioned last week that the fact that Coach K plays a shorter bench than I'd prefer is something I've come to expect and accept from each year's team. Likewise, I've come to accept that our offense only looks good for the duration of a season if we have a transcendent player-- Johnny D, Grant, JWill, etc. And we don't have that type of player this year, which makes Jumbo's suggestions all the more apt: cut down on the dribble, increase the motion and involve post players. I'd add to that getting to the line.

In a word: dynamism.

[bird]

8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?


Based on his comments on the most recent edition Inside Basketball, K's focus is here:

He said the biggest question is whether Duke can continue to improve its "offensive continuity," particularly the continued "progression of our big guys and then how our perimeters are able to interact with them."

His comments indicated that he is satisfied with the general competitiveness of the team and pleased with the defensive effort, but he focused on the offensive end as the main focus.

One thing about the boards: rarely do I see K or the staff quoted in debates, although the post-game radio shows, the weekly television shows, and post-game pressers create am pretty extensive record and, IMO, the comments as a whole are pretty frank and straightforward. I think while K and staff may soften comments about particular players from time to time, the program does indeed value honesty and a lot can be learned from just listening to what they say.

[WiJoe]

:cool:


Nicely done, Jumbo. For a blowhard, albeit kindler, gentler, this is swell stuff.

[Wander]

I still think the free throw thing is by far Duke's biggest weakness after the depth issue. Getting to the line 13 times against Long Beach State at home doesn't cut it for a team with Final Four hopes. Even Gonzaga, who we beat by something like infinity points, shot more free throws than us. Our offense is incredibly efficient overall but this is an area that really needs to improve.

[Duvall]

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hit just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?


Hm. Four of those games were away from Cameron, and three took place at MSG. How much of that difference is a good opponent/bad opponent split, and how much is a home/road split?

[jv001]

Jumbo must be a coach. The point of getting Kyle involved inside is something I've hoped for. It was his playing defense against the #4 or #5 guys that tired him out as a freshman. Kyle has some great inside moves and I hope we utilize those moves. Another thing that I want to see is the continued improvement of our young guys. That won't be as easy with conference play beginning, but it can come in baby steps. Just no regression. As for pressuring the ball to create turnovers, Jumbo make a good observation in that the conference does not have the elite ball handlers it had last year. I would not be surprised to see Coach K put some pressure on Clemson tomorrow night. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed. Tomorrow night will give us an idea of how good we are as begin a tough Phase of the season. Go Duke!

[greybeard]

Kyle does not need to be posting up, just getting catches in the 14-17 foot range.

Think Rip Hamilton here sports fans. From that distance, Kyle is much more of a threat making it all the way to the rim before help can stop him. Much easier to develop the stop and pop game from that distance too, the key to which is the catch and bringing it up to shooting in different ways in time with getting your weight ready to move into the shot. Working on that from outside the three line requires interim tempo changing skills that just complicate matters now.

I said during phase I that this was the biggest challenge this team faces and I am glad the experts are catching up. Look for Kyle to start looping past a big posted on one side and scootching up the lane past another for a catch off a curl real soon.

[chrisheery]

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

2) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We got a good look at size against UConn, and handled it well. But we'll see big teams far more often during ACC play. And the one thing UConn didn't have was a back-to-the-basket scorer. Well, tomorrow we'll get a healthy dose of old friend Trevor Booker. You know the other names -- Favors, Lawal, Aminu, even Trapani, plus Brackins and Monroe out of conference -- and that's just this phase, before we get a look at UNC.

Duke has shown, in limited opportunities, that it can rebound and provide good help defense against teams with some size (Gonzaga too). But what will our deep frontcourt look like when they're forced to guard guys who are big and skilled with the ball? Will we end up in a lot of foul trouble? Will we double with two bigs Should be interesting to watch.



I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.

So, I agree in theory with the idea that Kyle should catch in the post more, but I just don't know how we can do that reality. It makes our team too easy to guard. Instead, I think he should catch the ball off slip screens, coming off screens in mid-range, be the screener in screen-rolls, and on the baseline. I think getting him the ball in these areas allows him to use his skills more readily. As as screener in the screen-roll, no one will leave him alone, but mis-matches will be created and switches as well. He can shoot, pass, or drive depending on the mis-match. The switches may lead to more open shots for the big guys as well as Kyle as shown many times he is an excellent interior passer. (I am aware Jumbo already pointed out the screen-roll senario, just echoing an excellent point)

[Wander]

Hm. Four of those games were away from Cameron, and three took place at MSG. How much of that difference is a good opponent/bad opponent split, and how much is a home/road split?

On that note, Duke is currently 0-1 in road games. Something else to watch...

[Dukeface88]

I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.


Kelly could play the inside-out eventually. He's got the shooting skills to be a perimeter threat and the height (if not yet the strength) to guard opposing 4s. He isn't quite ready yet, but he could be by the end of the season.

[chrisheery]

Agreed, I think Ryan Kelly, when he is deemed ready to play full time, will be the ideal person to make that senario work. Problem is, if it isn't this year, this senario may not be available next year (if Singler goes pro). I am still expecting Singler to come on strong and be gone after this year. That way I can have a nice surprise if he doesn't.

[COYS]

Agreed, I think Ryan Kelly, when he is deemed ready to play full time, will be the ideal person to make that senario work. Problem is, if it isn't this year, this senario may not be available next year (if Singler goes pro). I am still expecting Singler to come on strong and be gone after this year. That way I can have a nice surprise if he doesn't.

I think this undervalues Masons skills from the high post, a little. Even if our 5 can't shoot from outside the lane (zoubs, Miles), if the 4 is Mason or Kelly, they can hang out around the elbow. If singled is double teamed hecan dump the ball off to the five on the opposite block, hit Mason cutting down the lane from the elbow, or kick to one of our guards for a three pointer, depending on wherethe double team comes from. The defense will have go choose to leave someone in order to double team Kyle. Ryan and Lance can both hit the 15 footer. Miles and Zoubs can finish from the opposite block. Mason may be the most deadly in that he can flash down the lane for a jam or a pass and if the defense recovers he can dump the ball to either block or his one of our guards for spot up three. Unless zoubs and Miles are in the game at the same time (which has rarely been the case) I think the spacing will be fine.

[chrisheery]

I think this undervalues Masons skills from the high post, a little. Even if our 5 can't shoot from outside the lane (zoubs, Miles), if the 4 is Mason or Kelly, they can hang out around the elbow. If singled is double teamed hecan dump the ball off to the five on the opposite block, hit Mason cutting down the lane from the elbow, or kick to one of our guards for a three pointer, depending on wherethe double team comes from. The defense will have go choose to leave someone in order to double team Kyle. Ryan and Lance can both hit the 15 footer. Miles and Zoubs can finish from the opposite block. Mason may be the most deadly in that he can flash down the lane for a jam or a pass and if the defense recovers he can dump the ball to either block or his one of our guards for spot up three. Unless zoubs and Miles are in the game at the same time (which has rarely been the case) I think the spacing will be fine.

Rather obviously, I don't agree. You are talking about a lot of meat (size of men) in that small painted area or just outside of it. If Singler is on the block and another big is on the opposite block, catcing at the elbow will be pretty crowded, as would a dive down the lane. I think that person has to be a three point threat and keep the floor spread to the three point line, and could cut from there. But, if he is not a three point threat, his man can sag into the top of the lane and interfere with all of Singler's potential options (scoring, passing to opposite block, skip pass).

I don't want to devalue what Mason can do. I think he will be able to shoot jumpers out past the free throw line, I jus said he hasn't done it yet. Which to me, indicates either 1. he doesn't have confidence in that shot, 2. the coaches don't have confidence in his shot, 3. both 1 and 2. I hope he starts shooting it. For that matter, I hope Miles does too. He has fine form and could make shots out to 12 feet easily. And, as I have said, just the threat of them hitting that shot signficiantly expands their potential offensive games.

[Saratoga2]

[QUOTE=Jumbo; with the exception of the first one).

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
With only 3 effective guards, it is clear that this is #1.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
Wha5t hasn't worked for Kyle is driving into the basket and forcing a shot. His outside shooting has also been spotty. He did very well inside rebounding and putting the ball back up last year, so running him off a screen to get him inside against a smaller player sounds like it might expand his arsenal of scoring methods. The rest of his game appears solid.


2) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We will get to see against Clemson. We have a size advantage but lack experience except for Zoubek. The thing we may see today is our bigs scoring against theirs and possibly getting them into foul trouble. It will be interesting. Another point is this year Zoubek appears to be far more aggressive going for the ball. Maybe his health and perhaps the realization that he needed to add aggressiveness to his game has improved his game.


3) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
Andre is a freshman who has gone through a personal tragedy. He has the offensive game developing well but defense is something to be learned over time.

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
We will see larger and more agile defenders on the perimeter against the ACC. We will also be pressed more and probably more fatigued in some games. Will we overcome that and maintain a high level of perimeter shooting? Possibly Singler will improve but it will be more difficult on Scheyer and Smith. Dawkins is likely to maintain his touch, so we should be pretty solid in the perimeter shooting department.

5) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
Jon is such a smart player, like a coach on the floor. In my view, his turnovers in the last game were due to the big lead and him getting careless trying to make the spectacular passes. He also was on with some less experienced players who should have caught some of the passes. I think Jon will continue to play very well and adapt his game to the players on the floor with him at any time of the game. His court awareness makes him a very good defender and we have seen that he can score. Unless other teams concentrate their defenses on him he will get his points, and he will distribute to a variety of capable scorers.



6) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
Zoubek is experienced, healthy and something has clicked with him being a lot more aggressive in his pursuit of the ball. He can score a little and can intimidate smaller players inside. Great to have him inside this year.

7) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
Mason clearly is athletic, but he is a freshman and it will take him time to understand when a pass should be made and how to be in a solid defensive position. He has a great upside and we should see improvements game by game. Going against Booker will be a learning experience. Maybe he can force Booker to defend and get some fouls on him. Between and improved Miles and Mason, we have two solid players added to the roster we didnt have last year.

8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
Kelly seems to be a guy who is effective getting the ball inside, but he may not get much PT. His defensive may not be adequate at the ACC level. In general, we are a fairly mature team and we have an inside threat in Mason Plumlee and Miles can also be effective. If Singler is also used in that way, we could be much better inside. 9) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?

Our guard position is somewhat limited and I can't see stepping up pressure with them. We do have size this year and should be more of a force inside.In the Clemson game, we should use the zone since their 3 point shooting is poorer than average. Clemson's biggest threat is with Booker. A zone can somewhat neutralize him.


Kelly is kind of an x-factor for the team. He has size and court awareness and could well represent a scoring threat as well as show ability feeding the post. The coaches have to learn how to best use his talents in conjunction with the rest of the team.QUOTE]

[greybeard]

Kelly's game begins off the mid-range catch, which is why he has been less effective point wise than one might expect. Once he establishes offensive control over the defense from that mid-range-catch position, he is comfortable with an occasional catch and shoot from 3.

So, those who suggest that Kelly posting can invert with Kyle posting are dreaming. Kelly is not yet comfortable with catching behind the line on a regular basis and playing off the bounce from there, which is the same hurdle that Kyle faces. Both have the component parts but not the experience to play that game at high end.

Besides, as I posted months ago, I think that one of K's main goals for this year is to see Kyle through the transition into a real 3. The inversion game will not further that. So, not only don't I see Duke as having the personnel to flip Kyle into a post-up position on anything other than an ad hoc basis, but I also do I think that that is what K wants for Kyle at this point.

If you don't want to think Rip, think Deng here. There is a wonderful part of the 3-position game which begins with a 3 catching it from a spot where one dribble gets you to the basket or a pull up position where a head fake and step through work.

K seems intent on hanging with three on the outside of the 3 line. When one of them is Kyle, he often will be less potent in the half court than one might wish. On the other hand, he is a brilliant player and who can say how long it will take for him to develop the ability to interject the catch and glide into the interior of the defense, and play from there while maintaining his dribble and then making an attack decision. It has always seemed to me that that is an essential part of the game from the 3 position when initiated from behind the 3 line that Kyle would have the least experience with and therefore be at a disadvantage even when playing against lesser players who were experienced 3s. Developing that seems key to playing the 3 at this and the next level, and perhaps it is worth the investment however long it takes.

Given who Kyle is, the growth curve at that position might be much shorter than one (that would be me) would expect. I certainly hope so. In the meantime, I hope that K finds ways to get him catches inside the 3; off those kind of catches, I'd have to think that he's everything Bobby Knight said he was.

[Jumbo]

Kyle does not need to be posting up, just getting catches in the 14-17 foot range.

Think Rip Hamilton here sports fans. From that distance, Kyle is much more of a threat making it all the way to the rim before help can stop him. Much easier to develop the stop and pop game from that distance too, the key to which is the catch and bringing it up to shooting in different ways in time with getting your weight ready to move into the shot. Working on that from outside the three line requires interim tempo changing skills that just complicate matters now.

I said during phase I that this was the biggest challenge this team faces and I am glad the experts are catching up. Look for Kyle to start looping past a big posted on one side and scootching up the lane past another for a catch off a curl real soon.

I'm with you on getting Kyle to catch the ball on the move, but he is not a Rip Hamilton, catch-and-shoot, type of player. It's a real skill to be able to shoot off curls like that, and Kyle's not at that point. He's also effective creating off the bounce. That said, I tend to think most players are more effective when catching while moving, so that's always good.

Disagree about not needing to post him, though. I'm not talking about doing that on a regular basis, but when you have a guy with size, skill, good footwork and a nice touch around the rim, you need to use that advantage, especially when you're having trouble getting to the FT line consistently.

[chrisheery]

I don't think any of us were saying that Ryan should play now to run this inverted offense. What I said, and I think some others said as well, was that Ryan has the right skill set to be the guy in that role when his game develops. Maybe I wasn't clear on that point, but that is how I feel, so I agree with your point in the present for Ryan and Kyle.

Jumbo, I agree it would be nice for him to post, I am just not sure how easy it will be to either get him the ball or for him to operate whenhe gets it because of what we are discussing. I also agree that Singler cannot do what Rip Hamilton does. In fact, there are very very few people in the world who can.

[Jumbo]

I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.

So, I agree in theory with the idea that Kyle should catch in the post more, but I just don't know how we can do that reality. It makes our team too easy to guard. Instead, I think he should catch the ball off slip screens, coming off screens in mid-range, be the screener in screen-rolls, and on the baseline. I think getting him the ball in these areas allows him to use his skills more readily. As as screener in the screen-roll, no one will leave him alone, but mis-matches will be created and switches as well. He can shoot, pass, or drive depending on the mis-match. The switches may lead to more open shots for the big guys as well as Kyle as shown many times he is an excellent interior passer. (I am aware Jumbo already pointed out the screen-roll senario, just echoing an excellent point)

I don't agree that it's probematic to post Kyle when he's playing the 3. We've done it in the past with 3s (including G last year) and even with 2s (think Thomas Hill). Granted, as you mentioned, all of those teams had multiple perimeter shooters to make defense pay against double teams. But here's the thing: That doesn't mean the strategy won't work without those shooters. Why?

1) You're assuming teams will double Kyle in the post. But this won't be happening on a regular basis, so it's not like teams will come in with a play for how to double Kyle the way you might attack, say, Trevor Booker. There won't be a sectin of the game plan that says "we're going to double big to big, or from the weak side wing, etc." against him. This would be happening infrequently, and Kyle would have to prove that he merits a double-team anyway.

2) If a team decides to double Kyle, that's a good thing. Even if Kyle is forced to kick it out to a wide-open big man who can't shoot from deep, that's still good. Why? It's forcing the defense to move, to do things it doesn't want to do. No one enters a game hoping to have to double players. Good things can result from that sequence. Depending on where they are spotted up, Lance, Mason and Ryan can all knock down an open jumper. But, as you've also mentioned, a player can cut or dive to the hoop. Even if that doesn't result in a pass for a layup, even if that clogs the middle, it might draw a perimeter defender to help for a split-second -- just long enough for Scheyer or Smith to get open. Or maybe Kyle passes out of the double, rubs off a screen on the opposite block and is open in the corner after some confusion. Basketball isn't a linear game, where one action necessarily leads to one expected outcome. Anytime you move the D and force adjustments, you've done something good on offense.

[chrisheery]

Yeah, I agree with the key point that Kyle won't always be doubled. I also agree that if he draws a double team, at least in principle, it is a good thing. I guess the other part of the equation that I failed to account for is this: if Kyle proves he deserves a double team, then the defens will also focus on preventing him from catching the ball there, opening up other passing lanes and driving opportunities (and shooting opportunities). Alright, I am back on the side of Kyle posting up.

As you noted already, I think G posting up was different completely because we had a perimeter oriented 4 (Kyle) who could be the inverted offense.

This brings me to a new thought: perhaps by Mason (or Lance, or Miles) and Kyle screening for each other, they can create mismatches at both positions. Allowing Kyle to abuse an opposing big man from the perimeter and on of our big guys to truely seal and dominate a smaller opponent.

[Jumbo]

Kelly's game begins off the mid-range catch, which is why he has been less effective point wise than one might expect. Once he establishes offensive control over the defense from that mid-range-catch position, he is comfortable with an occasional catch and shoot from 3.

So, those who suggest that Kelly posting can invert with Kyle posting are dreaming. Kelly is not yet comfortable with catching behind the line on a regular basis and playing off the bounce from there, which is the same hurdle that Kyle faces. Both have the component parts but not the experience to play that game at high end.
Kelly doesn't need to be able to put the ball of the floor if he's being stationed behind the line purely as a shooter. And Kyle has absolutely shown that ability -- for two and a half years now.


Besides, as I posted months ago, I think that one of K's main goals for this year is to see Kyle through the transition into a real 3. The inversion game will not further that. So, not only don't I see Duke as having the personnel to flip Kyle into a post-up position on anything other than an ad hoc basis, but I also do I think that that is what K wants for Kyle at this point.
What is a "real 3?" In the NBA, a 3 can play inside and out. Everyone from Bill Bradley to Ron Artest could face up and make a move, shoot from the outside, or exploit a mismatch in the post. No one is talking about chaining to the block. The idea is, just as we did last year with G and countless teams do with countless other players, to make one of the playcalls and inversion set, to get Kyle a few touches a game close to the basket. We've run this during the year already, just not often.


If you don't want to think Rip, think Deng here. There is a wonderful part of the 3-position game which begins with a 3 catching it from a spot where one dribble gets you to the basket or a pull up position where a head fake and step through work.
That's a fundamental part of basketball, regardless of position. Get the ball to a guy on the move. In fact, you've often written about that in regard to post play -- how it's important to feed a player in the direction he is shaded, often while moving, rather than just dumping the ball down to him to create on his own. That's more important with a guy like Zoubek than someone like Singler, but it's important nonetheless.

[greybeard]

I'm with you on getting Kyle to catch the ball on the move, but he is not a Rip Hamilton, catch-and-shoot, type of player. It's a real skill to be able to shoot off curls like that, and Kyle's not at that point. He's also effective creating off the bounce. That said, I tend to think most players are more effective when catching while moving, so that's always good.

Disagree about not needing to post him, though. I'm not talking about doing that on a regular basis, but when you have a guy with size, skill, good footwork and a nice touch around the rim, you need to use that advantage, especially when you're having trouble getting to the FT line consistently.

We'll see. In my experience, catching off a curl is a footwork thing and a lot easier to get then two-part attacks that coming from the three line require, a lot less to understand about the defense. I am just using the Rip curl off an elbow screener as an example of how to create a mid range catch with space. I'm sure there are many others.

I think that you are absolutely correct about Kyle's skills as a post-up player. I think however that part of what brought Kyle back was to learn that which he is less proficient at, to prepare him as a 3. I have no doubt that throughout his basketball life the post up will be integral to his game. Given priorities and personnel, I'm just thinking that it is unlikely to be a major feature this year.

Should they chose to figure out ways to post him, I should think that it will be a quick forming and executed deal, off a high low set with the Plumblees on the court. Could create some exciting possibilities. You might well have a point here Jumbo.

[Greg_Newton]

This brings me to a new thought: perhaps by Mason (or Lance, or Miles) and Kyle screening for each other, they can create mismatches at both positions. Allowing Kyle to abuse an opposing big man from the perimeter and on of our big guys to truely seal and dominate a smaller opponent.

I've been confused all season as to why we haven't done more interior screening. Even when we make a concerted effort to get the ball to the post more, we still just have our bigs screen for the perimeter players and then fend for themselves when it comes to establishing position... which isn't the best way for wiry, athletic big guys to make themselves effective.

Hopefully we'll start to see a little more of it every once in a while to faciliate some inside-outside possessions.

[Jumbo]

I've been confused all season as to why we haven't done more interior screening. Even when we make a concerted effort to get the ball to the post more, we still just have our bigs screen for the perimeter players and then fend for themselves when it comes to establishing position... which isn't the best way for wiry, athletic big guys to make themselves effective.

Hopefully we'll start to see a little more of it every once in a while to faciliate some inside-outside possessions.

Maybe a group of us would enjoy each tracking one of these small things -- interior things, sets in which Kyle runs to the post, focusing solely on Dawkins on D, etc. -- and reporting back on them after a particular game?

[BlueintheFace]

Maybe a group of us would enjoy each tracking one of these small things -- interior things, sets in which Kyle runs to the post, focusing solely on Dawkins on D, etc. -- and reporting back on them after a particular game?

I've been tracking three point shooting all season and would be willing to do so in this thread. The real shocker to me this season is how much less we have shot the three compared to previous years... thus far. I'll have some stats in a while.

[Jumbo]

I've been tracking three point shooting all season and would be willing to do so in this thread. The real shocker to me this season is how much less we have shot the three compared to previous years... thus far. I'll have some stats in a while.

In what way have you been tracking it? Like a shot chart? I'm thinking, for the other things, not so much of a statistical breakdown but just a good, informed, post-game scouting report.

[Bob Green]

I'm thinking, for the other things, not so much of a statistical breakdown but just a good, informed, post-game scouting report.

I'm taping today's game as I'm at work and cannot park myself in front of the lounge TV for the full two hours. I'll watch Dawkins on defense and post my thoughts, however, my post will not be up until Monday morning East Coast time.

[BlueintheFace]

In what way have you been tracking it? Like a shot chart? I'm thinking, for the other things, not so much of a statistical breakdown but just a good, informed, post-game scouting report.

ahhh, I see.

Well, here is what I have.

% of fg attempts that are Threes
09-10= 32.4% (159th in nation)
08-09= 35% (115th in nation)
07-08= 39% (64th in nation)

Source: http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Three Point FG Made
09-10= 106 (51st in nation)
08-09= 267 on the season (26th in nation)
07-08= 308 on the season (15th in nation)

Three Point FG Attempt
09-10= 245 (154th in nation)
08-09= 766 on the season (26th in nation)
07-08= 816 on the season (16th in nation)

Team 3pt FG%
09-10= 43.2% (2nd in nation)
08-09= 34.9% (129th in nation)
07-08= 37.7% (61st in nation)

Source: http://statsheet.com/mcb/teams/duke/team_stats?type=all

Individual Statistics

Nolan Smith= 13/29 (.448)
Jon Scheyer= 25/59 (.424)
Kyle Singler= 15/44 (.341)
Andre Dawkins= 23/48 (.479)
Ryan Kelly= 4/13 (.308)
All Others= 1/5 (.200)

Source: http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

My Analysis:

Jon Scheyer often shoots threes from the corner off of baseline screens in which he fades to the corner when a defender goes over instead of under. This is a designed play Duke runs multiple times per game (the same basic play K ran for JJ with great frequency). It's success relies on Jon reading how his defender plays the screen.

Kyle Singler often scores from the elbow extended spot beyond the three point line off of Scheyer or Smith drive and kicks. He will also pull up when his defender gives him too much space.

Nolan Smith often scores threes on the break when Jon finds him with an extra pass or off of a kick from the post following an offensive rebound or entry pass (obviously the less frequent of the two).

Dawkins often scores threes in transition, on broken plays, and from the corner when a guard drives baseline and finds him on the cross court pass. He is often the 5th option on the floor and is not an active member of the offense for most of the game. His threes rely on defensive breakdowns, man advantages, or great passes. That being said, he has the purest stroke and is the most consistent threat.

Regarding the statistics. Notice that we are 2nd in the nation right now in 3pt fg%. There is no way we can keep that up going in to the ACC. Also, notice that we are currently 154th in the nation in attempts and 51st in made 3 pointers. Quite a discrepancy. Finally, notice how much less we have relied on the three this season in comparison to the last two seasons.

Statistics Current as of 01/03/2010

...those are just a few thoughts. I have a bit more I can provide on where and how the big 4 three point shooters get their buckets, but I'm sure that can be elaborated on in the context of future games, so I will save it.

[greybeard]

Jumbp, I thought that you were concerned with Singler's lack of offensive production. If he is so proficient at catching outside the three line and shooting and attacking from there, what needs to change?

What has changed is that he roamed out there from playing a relative inside position against bigger players whom he often lost in the shuffle and was unguarded or had guys running at him with only one big to contest at the rim. Now, he catches with a 3 on him which makes the 3 shot a different thing. His catches with space are less frequent and have less space and the ability of a 3 defender to close and still maintain the ability to defend on the drive is vastly superior to what he faced in years past.

Now going all the way leaves two of the other team's bigs to guard the lane.

Players adept at playing the small forward position have the ability to penetrate the defense on the dribble as an interium move and then decide on an attack. Singler does not have that yet, at least not to the extent that high end-guys who have been playing that position do--is not familiar with how to deal with the attention that interium pause attracts and how to beat it. That takes a feel, experience, that Kyle simply does not have yet.

Catching it in the 15-17 foot range is a whole other animal. Stepping forward with his right foot and elevating into a shot over a smaller or even same sized defender is a very reliable shot, which makes guarding Kyle for a real 3 much more difficult. You try to make that shot difficult for Singler, he is by you and is only two maybe three at most large steps to the rim, one dribble. He pulls up anywhere form 12 to 5 feet from the rim, has a shot or a step through, or a pump and a shot. This is a mid range game that I think Kyle has right now that is not being utilized.

How one sets up the reception on the interior of the 3 line, I really don't care. I offered Rip and Deng as guys who start their offense from inside the 3line in the pros and then wil drift out and catch with room and hit some 3s. I see that as an option that Duke has yet to utilize for Kyle. I think he's much more ready to produce well from there and then drift out for 3s after asserting some dominance over defenders, then in initiating primarily off catches from the 3 line. You don't, that's fine. Neither of us are calling the shots anyway.

The key to good offense, in my opinion, is one that allows people to catch in their rhythm, with some movement. Can people score the ball off a catch standing relatively still and elevating without needing to reajust themselves. Sure. There are some tremendous atheletes in this game. Is it easier the other way, where you have some movement that is primed for a player to literally walk into a potential shot. I think so.

In sum, I thought at the outset that Kyle's production from the 3 was going to be the biggest issue Duke faced this year and said so. Seems that you began by acknowledging that that was pretty much the case, or so I thought. I think your idea of his posting up is not the solution that K is looking for, and have the same doubts as others as to inversion working. On the other hand, I can see Mason catching it high, having his brother already posted low on one side, and K finding ways to have Singler flash into the post on the other.

Still think the mid-range option is the best way to go.

You can try to bust it all you want, we disagree.

[Jumbo]

Jumbp, I thought that you were concerned with Singler's lack of offensive production. If he is so proficient at catching outside the three line and shooting and attacking from there, what needs to change?

What has changed is that he roamed out there from playing a relative inside position against bigger players whom he often lost in the shuffle and was unguarded or had guys running at him with only one big to contest at the rim. Now, he catches with a 3 on him which makes the 3 shot a different thing. His catches with space are less frequent and have less space and the ability of a 3 defender to close and still maintain the ability to defend on the drive is vastly superior to what he faced in years past.

Now going all the way leaves two of the other team's bigs to guard the lane.

Players adept at playing the small forward position have the ability to penetrate the defense on the dribble as an interium move and then decide on an attack. Singler does not have that yet, at least not to the extent that high end-guys who have been playing that position do--is not familiar with how to deal with the attention that interium pause attracts and how to beat it. That takes a feel, experience, that Kyle simply does not have yet.

Catching it in the 15-17 foot range is a whole other animal. Stepping forward with his right foot and elevating into a shot over a smaller or even same sized defender is a very reliable shot, which makes guarding Kyle for a real 3 much more difficult. You try to make that shot difficult for Singler, he is by you and is only two maybe three at most large steps to the rim, one dribble. He pulls up anywhere form 12 to 5 feet from the rim, has a shot or a step through, or a pump and a shot. This is a mid range game that I think Kyle has right now that is not being utilized.

How one sets up the reception on the interior of the 3 line, I really don't care. I offered Rip and Deng as guys who start their offense from inside the 3line in the pros and then wil drift out and catch with room and hit some 3s. I see that as an option that Duke has yet to utilize for Kyle. I think he's much more ready to produce well from there and then drift out for 3s after asserting some dominance over defenders, then in initiating primarily off catches from the 3 line. You don't, that's fine. Neither of us are calling the shots anyway.

The key to good offense, in my opinion, is one that allows people to catch in their rhythm, with some movement. Can people score the ball off a catch standing relatively still and elevating without needing to reajust themselves. Sure. There are some tremendous atheletes in this game. Is it easier the other way, where you have some movement that is primed for a player to literally walk into a potential shot. I think so.

In sum, I thought at the outset that Kyle's production from the 3 was going to be the biggest issue Duke faced this year and said so. Seems that you began by acknowledging that that was pretty much the case, or so I thought. I think your idea of his posting up is not the solution that K is looking for, and have the same doubts as others as to inversion working. On the other hand, I can see Mason catching it high, having his brother already posted low on one side, and K finding ways to have Singler flash into the post on the other.

Still think the mid-range option is the best way to go.

You can try to bust it all you want, we disagree.

Actually, I think we pretty much agree on anything, particular the value of catching the ball on the move/in rhythm. And I don't think Singler has been bad this year. I just think posting him up occasionally (again, I'm not talking about chaining him to the block, I'm talking about calling selective set plays) will add to Duke's offensive diversity, which is even more important than Singler's individual development.

And the reason I don't have a problem with his operating a lot behind the arc is because Duke needs to space the floor, and his ball-handling is critical in Duke's attack. But, if you go back and read, as I said, you'll find that we are basically in agreement.

[BlueintheFace]

6-18 3pt fg for the game

I didn't see the 1st half for obvious reasons, so here is what I saw behind the arc in the second half.

Duke had good ball movement from the opening tip and got 4 early wide open looks for Kyle and Jon. None of them went in and the rebounds/runouts led to easy Clemson points and a small run. In the postgame conference K addressed this and stated that he told them all to keep shooting because they were getting good looks. I agree. I counted just one of twelve 2nd half threes that were contested and that was Andre's blocked three.

Nolan launched a few times times, he missed two off of passes inside out but made one when his man overhelped on a high screen for Jon.

Aside from Kyle's early two misses, he missed one wide open three off of an inbounds play.

Scheyer had that awesome three off of the steal, but he missed a few corner threes off of baseline passes or that set play I referenced earlier where he fades to the corner.

On the whole, Duke only took very good looks from three and it didn't appear that they were bothered or effected by any increase in game speed or pressure.

[Bob Green]

I'll watch Dawkins on defense and post my thoughts....

I was able to watch the entire game (thank you American Forces TV), but there isn't much to report as far as Dawkins' defense is concerned. He played five minutes and didn't miss any assignments. Offensively, he struggled during an approximately two minute stretch in the second half starting with about 13:16 left in the game when he committed a turnover off a long pass, from Scheyer, on the sideline, as Duke was attempting to beat the fullcourt press, and then had his 3-point shot attempt blocked on the next offensive possession.

I was very happy Coach Krzyzewski re-inserted Dawkins into the game for the last 1:24 of action. This wasn't a good showing for Dawkins, however, we need this young man knocking down some jumpers during ACC play.

Next Play!

[superdave]

Zoubek - Zoubek had a poor showing against Clemson. 0 points, 0 fg attempts, 2 defensive rebounds, fouled out (including at least two cheap fouls). Hopefully this is an aberration because Clemson is smaller and more athletic. Zoubek will be most effective against bigger teams with more traditional back-to-the -basket post players where he can alter shots. But his ability to alter the game is clearly shown in his +/-.

Kyle in the post - As for posting Kyle up, I recall once where he was completely isolated just below the elbow, called for the ball and caught the entry pass. I believe he was fouled during the entry pass. Good use of the post up. This can be used to find shooters spotting up or to dump it off to a big man if Kyle gets doubled. This would be a nice wrinkle to add.

3 point shooting vs. Clemson - Also, our 3 point % was 33.3% against Clemson which is sort of break-even. It was nice to see the Big Three driving to the hole some. Kyle had a great runner in the lane where he drove left and got his shot up before the defender could react. That is a great way to address those early missed 3's that were mentioned previously.

Fast Break Opportunities - What about transition? Seems like Coach K dials back all but the most obvious fast breaks in order to keep the game under control. But a few secondary break plays are sure-bets (ie. Jon/Nolan finding Kyle/Nolan/Andre on the wing on a break for 3's). Also, Mason and Miles can finish in the open court pretty well and teams that take advantage of an un-set defense can get to the foul line. Seems like a win-win with certain lineups and matchups for us this year.

Super Dave

[Kedsy]

Zoubek - Zoubek had a poor showing against Clemson. 0 points, 0 fg attempts, 2 defensive rebounds, fouled out (including at least two cheap fouls). Hopefully this is an aberration because Clemson is smaller and more athletic. Zoubek will be most effective against bigger teams with more traditional back-to-the -basket post players where he can alter shots. But his ability to alter the game is clearly shown in his +/-.

As you point out, even in this game, Z's plus/minus per 40 was the best on the team by anyone who played more than a minute, and more than twice as good as Kyle's (for those who hate the "per 40" idea, Z's raw plus/minus was third best on the team, and only 3 points worse than the best on the team). So, I would amend your statement to say that Z had a poor statistical showing but he must have been doing something right defensively and fundamentally (e.g., setting good screens, etc.).

[superdave]

As you point out, even in this game, Z's plus/minus per 40 was the best on the team by anyone who played more than a minute, and more than twice as good as Kyle's (for those who hate the "per 40" idea, Z's raw plus/minus was third best on the team, and only 3 points worse than the best on the team). So, I would amend your statement to say that Z had a poor statistical showing but he must have been doing something right defensively and fundamentally (e.g., setting good screens, etc.).

Yeah, I get this. I really do. But there's also the "playing 3 on 5 on offense" problem that undermines us against elite competition (the Sweet 16).

A team cannot always get away with someone who impacts the game non-statistically. Sometimes a guy needs to be just enough of a threat to score to make the defense play the other 4 offensive players differently. We're not consistently there yet.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, I get this. I really do. But there's also the "playing 3 on 5 on offense" problem that undermines us against elite competition (the Sweet 16).

A team cannot always get away with someone who impacts the game non-statistically. Sometimes a guy needs to be just enough of a threat to score to make the defense play the other 4 offensive players differently. We're not consistently there yet.

I agree we're not quite there yet on a consistent basis. But I would also like to point out that there's a difference between scoring and being a threat to score.

I didn't see the Clemson game (not on TV in my area) but it would surprise me to hear that nobody was guarding Zoubek when he was on the floor (and the same for our other big players). Assuming that's true, then he did make the defense play differently, because it's a lot harder to double on the perimeter players if you have to stay in the vicinity of a guy who rarely ventures away from the lane except to set a screen. Being a decoy's OK if the defense takes the bait (and how's that for mixing hunting and fishing metaphors?).

[jv001]

Yeah, I get this. I really do. But there's also the "playing 3 on 5 on offense" problem that undermines us against elite competition (the Sweet 16).

A team cannot always get away with someone who impacts the game non-statistically. Sometimes a guy needs to be just enough of a threat to score to make the defense play the other 4 offensive players differently. We're not consistently there yet.

The "3 on 5" comments last year were referring to when Lance and E-Will were on the court together. Our opponents were giving both open shots in order to guard Henderson, Kyle and Jon. This year, I don't see the opposition giving one of our interior guys a wide open shot under the goal. Go Duke!

[superdave]

The "3 on 5" comments last year were referring to when Lance and E-Will were on the court together. Our opponents were giving both open shots in order to guard Henderson, Kyle and Jon. This year, I don't see the opposition giving one of our interior guys a wide open shot under the goal. Go Duke!

Duke outside the Big Three only scored 14 points versus Clemson, right? We will lose in the Sweet 16 if we dont improve that over the next 8 weeks. Perhaps that's a better explanation (balance) than the 3 on 5 argument (offensive liabilities).

[NSDukeFan]

Duke outside the Big Three only scored 14 points versus Clemson, right? We will lose in the Sweet 16 if we dont improve that over the next 8 weeks. Perhaps that's a better explanation (balance) than the 3 on 5 argument (offensive liabilities).

Sure, better offensive balance would be nice and we may very well lose in the sweet 16 without it. There is also a chance that if we have guys on the court who are offensive threats that keep the court open for our big 3, and defend very well, rebound well and score when needed, that the team could advance further.

I am a big fan of interior passing to the post, and hope we include more of that in the future, but I don't think it is necessary (though obviously better) that we score from the post as long as the defense has to respect that option and has to adjust to it.

[jv001]

Duke outside the Big Three only scored 14 points versus Clemson, right? We will lose in the Sweet 16 if we dont improve that over the next 8 weeks. Perhaps that's a better explanation (balance) than the 3 on 5 argument (offensive liabilities).

This I agree with, but I think it comes from our offense being geared to our big 3. As others have stated, I would like to see more post offense. That would also include Kyle posting up his man. Especially after a switch by the defense where he's being guarded by a smaller player. I have more confidence in Miles and Mason posting up than Zoubs. Brian brings the ball down and get's it stripped all too often. Just my take. Go Duke!

[ice-9]

I would love to see more plays go through the post. It doesn't necessarily have to end with one of our bigs making the basket, but at least a big receiving the pass and making a move with either a shot or a pass out as the result.

In the Clemson game, we saw some nice post moves by Zoubek and the two Plumlees in that regard but only when they rebound missed shots. Hopefully, the team will grow to be more deliberate about involving the post, e.g. high-low plays.

[superdave]

Defense -what can you say? We throw full court traps, zones at people to shake them up for a few plays. We play solid man-to-man. Our big guys are rebounding really well defensively.

Where do we have room for improvement? We need to work on Transition D. We are big and relatively slow on the front line that we can and will get beat down the court on transition D. So we have to keep the game at OUR pace. Scheyer is excellent at this. Also, our big men need to stop picking up cheap fouls on reach-ins, reaching over the should on the entry pass. Play a guy straight up and make him hit a shot. This is a discipline thing that can come this season.

Offense - We are pretty efficient. The big 3 are like totally awesome. We'd all like to see Kyle shoot the ball better (mini slump a la Scheyer last year?). And Dawkins will get back to form as he gets back into the swing of the season.

Where is room for improvement? Two areas I see: first, I'd love to see our bigs post up a little more - maybe we commit to feeding the post 4-5 times in the first 10 minutes each game just to put pressure on the other team.

Second, we get bogged down a lot when teams turn up the defensive pressure on our perimeter players. Think about how right after we jumped all over ISU, were up 12-2, then we went cold and missed like 6 straight field goals. Some were blocked inside, some were bad jumpers. If we get in a rut, I vote for our big 3 driving to the hoop. By doing that we can get higher % shots, draw fouls and put pressure on the defense. We drive the lane well, but often not until the 2nd half when the D is more tired.

Secondary Break - Also, I've tried to point out the need for a secondary break all year. Our secondary break looked terrible against ISU. We dribbled in too far without a way to score, threw bad cross-court passes, etc. I think if we developed 2-3 secondary break plays - look for them, then pull it out if not there - then we can use this without much downside. Think Nolan/Jon finding each other plus Kyle/Andre for a quick, wide-opn 3.

My favorite all-time secondary break play is Jason Williams finding a trailing Battier for a wide-open 3 at the top of the key after two hard dribbles past the 3 point line. It was alayup for Battier and his defender usually sagged back. We could run this for Kyle a lot.

Overall, I'm enjoying seeing this team grow from game to game. You can see the wheels spinning and then every game something clicks for someone.

[BlueintheFace]

Duke was 9-21 from three. Scheyer was 4-9 with most of those attempts coming from the corner again. Kyle continued to struggle with a 2-6 effort. Nolan pushed his ridiculous 3pt% up further with a 2-2 effort. Dawkins was 0-2 and Mason Plumlee sent a message to big men who want to leave him alone up top by knocking down 1-2.

Nolan continues to feast off of defensive overloads and man advantages leaving him wide open threes. Interestingly, Duke took quite a few threes late in the shot clock, including Jon using a high screen with 2 seconds left on the clock.

[mus074]

I had been debating where to throw in this statistical tidbit on shooting rhythm and I think this is as good a place as any.

So far, Duke's shooting success has correlated (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke) very strongly with how much it fouls the opponent. (FTR = FTA/FGA, so the higher the number, the more FTs the opponents is shooting as a function of its FG attempts). According to Pomeroy, it seems the more Duke's opponents shoot FTs, the fewer points Duke scores per possession. I took this one step further and found an equally strong correlation between this same FT stat and Duke's effective shooting percentages. After a quick unscientific survey of other teams, I could only find one or two other teams with the same statistical correlation, so it looks like a bit of an anomaly

Whether pure happenstance or some actual casual correlation exists, its hard to say. However, I can make a case for there being true correlation. Higher FTA are mostly a result of more fouls. Fouls tend to result from being out of position on defense, out of sync with what you intend to make the opposing offense do. Perhaps this statistic could be a proxy for a team's quickness, rhythm and flow on defense. And if the team is having an off night on its defensive rhythm, it certainly stands to reason you could expect a similar degradation of its offensive flow and rhythm.

Alternatively, that FTR number could be an indicator of the level of competition Duke faces. However, very few other teams seem to show this correlation, so I am leery of that perhaps more generic explanation.

Choppy, foul-heavy games may not be conducive to Duke's offensive flow. However, there is no statistical correlation between Duke's FG shooting and its own FTA frequency. So, lets watch Duke's shooting percentage in relation to its fouls on defense and the amount of FTs its opponents shoot. And lets hope for a continuation of this fewer opponent FTAs. ;)

[Kedsy]

Alternatively, that FTR number could be an indicator of the level of competition Duke faces. However, very few other teams seem to show this correlation, so I am leery of that perhaps more generic explanation.

Is it possible this number could be an indication of the quickness of the opponent, and the reason it correlates more for Duke is because the oft-stated fear of us having problems against quick opponents is well-founded? (I don't have an opinion on this, I'm just asking.)

[Mcluhan]

I had been debating where to throw in this statistical tidbit on shooting rhythm and I think this is as good a place as any.

So far, Duke's shooting success has correlated (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke) very strongly with how much it fouls the opponent. (FTR = FTA/FGA, so the higher the number, the more FTs the opponents is shooting as a function of its FG attempts). According to Pomeroy, it seems the more Duke's opponents shoot FTs, the fewer points Duke scores per possession. I took this one step further and found an equally strong correlation between this same FT stat and Duke's effective shooting percentages. After a quick unscientific survey of other teams, I could only find one or two other teams with the same statistical correlation, so it looks like a bit of an anomaly

Whether pure happenstance or some actual casual correlation exists, its hard to say. However, I can make a case for there being true correlation. Higher FTA are mostly a result of more fouls. Fouls tend to result from being out of position on defense, out of sync with what you intend to make the opposing offense do. Perhaps this statistic could be a proxy for a team's quickness, rhythm and flow on defense. And if the team is having an off night on its defensive rhythm, it certainly stands to reason you could expect a similar degradation of its offensive flow and rhythm.

Alternatively, that FTR number could be an indicator of the level of competition Duke faces. However, very few other teams seem to show this correlation, so I am leery of that perhaps more generic explanation.

Choppy, foul-heavy games may not be conducive to Duke's offensive flow. However, there is no statistical correlation between Duke's FG shooting and its own FTA frequency. So, lets watch Duke's shooting percentage in relation to its fouls on defense and the amount of FTs its opponents shoot. And lets hope for a continuation of this fewer opponent FTAs. ;)

Wow-- Very interesting, and not something I would have predicted.

[MChambers]

I had been debating where to throw in this statistical tidbit on shooting rhythm and I think this is as good a place as any.

So far, Duke's shooting success has correlated (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Duke) very strongly with how much it fouls the opponent. (FTR = FTA/FGA, so the higher the number, the more FTs the opponents is shooting as a function of its FG attempts). According to Pomeroy, it seems the more Duke's opponents shoot FTs, the fewer points Duke scores per possession. I took this one step further and found an equally strong correlation between this same FT stat and Duke's effective shooting percentages. After a quick unscientific survey of other teams, I could only find one or two other teams with the same statistical correlation, so it looks like a bit of an anomaly

Whether pure happenstance or some actual casual correlation exists, its hard to say. However, I can make a case for there being true correlation. Higher FTA are mostly a result of more fouls. Fouls tend to result from being out of position on defense, out of sync with what you intend to make the opposing offense do. Perhaps this statistic could be a proxy for a team's quickness, rhythm and flow on defense. And if the team is having an off night on its defensive rhythm, it certainly stands to reason you could expect a similar degradation of its offensive flow and rhythm.

Alternatively, that FTR number could be an indicator of the level of competition Duke faces. However, very few other teams seem to show this correlation, so I am leery of that perhaps more generic explanation.

Choppy, foul-heavy games may not be conducive to Duke's offensive flow. However, there is no statistical correlation between Duke's FG shooting and its own FTA frequency. So, lets watch Duke's shooting percentage in relation to its fouls on defense and the amount of FTs its opponents shoot. And lets hope for a continuation of this fewer opponent FTAs. ;)

Do you know that it's not the other way around? That is, if Duke shoots well, does it commit fewer fouls? That might result from being able to get the defense set after a made basket. (Sorry, but I'm never sure how to read the Pomeroy game plan numbers.)

[CDu]

Do you know that it's not the other way around? That is, if Duke shoots well, does it commit fewer fouls? That might result from being able to get the defense set after a made basket. (Sorry, but I'm never sure how to read the Pomeroy game plan numbers.)

Yeah, that's a possibility. It could be sort of like the old "if Team A can run the ball for more, they'll win" argument, when in actuality the extra rushing attempts is often just an artifact of having the lead and wanting to kill the clock.

I would lean toward the mutual third-party cause explanation mentioned by the previous poster: the quality of the opponents is the cause of both trends. Better opponents are able to draw more fouls and also make it more difficult for Duke to score. Thus, the correlation would not be a function of causation in either direction.

[mus074]

Do you know that it's not the other way around? That is, if Duke shoots well, does it commit fewer fouls? That might result from being able to get the defense set after a made basket. (Sorry, but I'm never sure how to read the Pomeroy game plan numbers.)

A very good point indeed! However, there is no correlation between Duke's EFG (how well they shoot) and how many points they allow the opponent to score per possession. You might expect a correlation between shooting and overall defensive effectiveness if Duke's defense was that predicated on getting back after a made basket.

[mus074]

Yeah, that's a possibility. It could be sort of like the old "if Team A can run the ball for more, they'll win" argument, when in actuality the extra rushing attempts is often just an artifact of having the lead and wanting to kill the clock.

I would lean toward the mutual third-party cause explanation mentioned by the previous poster: the quality of the opponents is the cause of both trends. Better opponents are able to draw more fouls and also make it more difficult for Duke to score. Thus, the correlation would not be a function of causation in either direction.

You two may be right. I ran the regression on the team's overall adjusted OE and DE, and there is in fact a strong correlation between FTR and the ability of the other teams.

Considering this correlation is not found in the vast majority of teams, it would mean Duke's shooting effectiveness is more dependent on the quality of its opponent than other teams. Or instead and more likely, that its FG shooting as just as dependent as other teams, but its defensive FTR is more dependent on quality of competition, i.e., Duke's defense fouls better teams more.

[MChambers]

You two may be right. I ran the regression on the team's overall adjusted OE and DE, and there is in fact a strong correlation between FTR and the ability of the other teams.

Considering this correlation is not found in the vast majority of teams, it would mean Duke's shooting effectiveness is more dependent on the quality of its opponent than other teams. Or instead and more likely, that its FG shooting as just as dependent as other teams, but its defensive FTR is more dependent on quality of competition, i.e., Duke's defense fouls better teams more.

Duke does seem to be doing a somewhat better job of not fouling, or at least not putting its opponent on the line. Through the Wisconsin game, in each game the opponents had a free throw rate of over 25%; since then only 3 of 7 have. The last two gains have not been good in that regard, however. In the first half of the Clemson game, Clemson had only a handful of free throws attempts, but gotten any in the second half.

I still think this is a key factor for the rest of the season.

[YourLandlord]

5) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hi just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?


durf so far

[BlueintheFace]

6-28

[Wander]

On that note, Duke is currently 0-1 in road games. Something else to watch...

Ahem. We are a very bad road team. That's a bad sign for March, so far.

[YourLandlord]

Ahem. We are a very bad road team. That's a bad sign for March, so far.

?? How have you determined this so far this young season?

w/r/t 3s, Scheyer 3-10, Singler 2-8...garbage

[Wander]

?? How have you determined this so far this young season?


Because we're 0-2 in road games so far? Neither is an awful loss, but our offense has been inefficient in both. I think this is due to our inability to get to the FT line. That needs to get better.

[YourLandlord]

Because we're 0-2 in road games so far? Neither is an awful loss, but our offense has been inefficient in both. I think this is due to our inability to get to the FT line. That needs to get better.

So you're basing this assumption on 2 games against ranked/good teams?

And really, we can't get to the FT line when we are playing in someone else's stadium? What does that even mean? As in, what mechanism do you think is driving that? We're not driving? Why would that be different on the road?

[Jumbo]

Because we're 0-2 in road games so far? Neither is an awful loss, but our offense has been inefficient in both. I think this is due to our inability to get to the FT line. That needs to get better.

Dude -- sample size. Sample size.

Agreed on the FT issue, though.

[Wander]

So you're basing this assumption on 2 games against ranked/good teams?


I did say "so far." It's not an assumption. So far, we're a bad road team. Maybe we'll get better (I think we will).



And really, we can't get to the FT line when we are playing in someone else's stadium? What does that even mean? As in, what mechanism do you think is driving that? We're not driving? Why would that be different on the road?

No, we've done a relatively poor job of getting to the free throw line all season long. That's not really arguable, though of course we can debate the reason(s) why. In my opinion, it's because Singler and Nolan aren't getting inside as often as they should and because we have one starter who contributes very little on offense (on the other hand, Scheyer has been doing a good job drawing fouls).

[YourLandlord]

No, we've done a relatively poor job of getting to the free throw line all season long. That's not really arguable, though of course we can debate the reason(s) why. In my opinion, it's because Singler and Nolan aren't getting inside as often as they should and because we have one starter who contributes very little on offense (on the other hand, Scheyer has been doing a good job drawing fouls).

Okay, I thought you were saying we don't go to line on the road but do at home.

[BlueintheFace]

Duke missed a lot of open threes today. I counted 8 total contested threes of 28. The rest were more or less open. In fact, most of them were wide open. I'm afraid that KS does need to get a handle on this slump or else our 3 point shooting could take a pretty significant tumble in this phase.

[superdave]

Fast Breaks, Secondary Break - We had 15 fast break points against BC and ran a nice secondary break. The one caveat is that BC is not that good.

Balanced Scoring - Miles stepped up last game, Mason the game before that. We're getting a few buckets from BZ. Once Andre gets back on track (I was begging for 2 of his threes to stay down against BC), we'll make a big step forward as a team. Balance is emerging, and part of that is guys stepping up and being more aggressive.

Kyle - His shooting slump is similar to Jon's last year. He'll come out of it, but he's doing so much else right. When he does find his shot, we'll taken even another step forward as a team. I'm happy to be patient for now.

Defense - Anyone have anything to add here? Our younger guys need to grow and learn and they are getting the minutes to do so.

[oldnavy]

Fast Breaks, Secondary Break - We had 15 fast break points against BC and ran a nice secondary break. The one caveat is that BC is not that good.

Balanced Scoring - Miles stepped up last game, Mason the game before that. We're getting a few buckets from BZ. Once Andre gets back on track (I was begging for 2 of his threes to stay down against BC), we'll make a big step forward as a team. Balance is emerging, and part of that is guys stepping up and being more aggressive.

Kyle - His shooting slump is similar to Jon's last year. He'll come out of it, but he's doing so much else right. When he does find his shot, we'll taken even another step forward as a team. I'm happy to be patient for now.
Defense - Anyone have anything to add here? Our younger guys need to grow and learn and they are getting the minutes to do so.

My thoughts exactly. When the sleeping giant awakens, watch out!

[mike88]

Well, we're now through the BC game . . .but close enough.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
yes

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
yes, at least at times - best so far has been the GT game, but this is still an area for concern

3) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
Defensively, we have done well against most teams, thanks in large part of both Lance and Z playing at a high level, and because our front-court depth has generally limited our foul problems overall. All of our bigs need to limit their bad fouls (mostly reaching fouls) while staying aggressive. Mobile big men (Monroe, Tracy Smith) have caused us the most problems . . .but generally I think our post defense has been strong.

4) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
Not yet.

5) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Well, we are still shooting 39%, which is good, but we have been inconsistent- the 12/18 vs GT is pulling up our numbers considerably

6) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
So far Jon has kept his productivity very high, although he hasn't been able to keep up the eye-popping numbers from pre-January. I have been most impressed that he has been able to pick his spots very well, and deliver when we have needed him to.


7) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
A qualified no. Z continues to play very well against favorable match-ups (like vs BC) but he has trouble getting good minutes vs. the more mobile bigs like Monroe. But there is no comparison with last season- he has played much better and been a big part of several ACC wins this year.

8) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
Not yet. We can still see his potential and he has had some great plays in isolation, but the whole package has not come together yet.

9) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
A mixed bag. Some successes recently (GT, especially) but we still have trouble with becoming too perimeter oriented and forcing ourselves to rely on Nolan (mainly), or Kyle to play one on one, with limited success.

10) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?
I don't think our pressure defense has been our strong suit this year- our personnel are not best suited to play the "overplay the passing lanes, pressure the ball" defense that Coach K favors most years. On the other hand, this team has been good to great on defense, except vs. NCSU and G-town.

Overall, we have been good but not great so far. Our ceiling is probably determined by how well our bigs can play against top-flight opponents. I don't think they have to become scoring machines, but we need good defense, few/no turnovers, limit the bad fouls, and (unlike most Duke teams) we need to win the rebounding battle. If we are successful, I predict a 12-4 finish (1st place) and a trip to the ACC finals; I think a reasonable NCAA goal for this team is the Elite 8.

[Jumbo]

Crap. I totally forgot to jump on this between the GT and BC games, and now we're already into Phase IV! I'll get a Phase IV post up before the UNC game. In the meantime, here's the recap of Phase III.

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
For the most part, yeah. Guys are battered and bruised -- Kyle's wrist, whatever Mason did to himself when he fell, whatever K mentioned about Jon's back, etc. But everyone's still playing, so phew.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
Slowly, this is happening. One of the only decent parts of the NC State loss was that Duke inverted the offense some, posted Singler and he responded by scoring at will against Wood on the block. Duke posted him with more success during this phase, but K needs to go to the well even more. He really does have a good post-up game and has a real size advantage most nights. Milk it until the other team stops him or doubles him.
The good news is that the changes to the motion offense that we first saw in the win against GT have included Kyle making different cuts -- almost Flexish. So he's catching on the baseline or near the elbows or on tight curls and not just at the arc. I think he's shooting too many 3s and is a better player when he's getting the ball closer to the hoop in rhythm, rather than trying to create off the bounced from 22 feet away. So there was some progress on this front.

3) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
For the most part, Duke's bigs did an excellent job against post scorers during Phase III. Lance deserves a lot of credit, but the other guys -- particularly Zoubek -- have done their part. And while Duke's rebounding hasn't been quite as overwhelming against conference foes, it's been solid against some pretty big teams. The FSU game and the second half at GT are the only times I felt like Duke didn't really bring it on the boards.

4) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
Sadly, the only answer to this in Phase III is "No."

5) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
It was a pretty big one, although no one could have expected Duke to keep hitting 43.3% from deep. That said, losing Dawkins as an outside option has hurt. ACC teams have defended Duke better behind the arc. And Duke has shot poorly on the road. Add in season-long struggles for Singler (with the exception of the GT breakout game) and a mini-slump for Schyer, and things got a bit rocky. The good news is that Scheyer, Smith and Singler did consistently get good looks even in the losses, and I'll feel good if they're still getting those looks in the Tourney. There's always a chance that the shots won't go down, but Duke doesn't solely rely on the 3, and an open 3 for those guys is a highly efficient shot.

6) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
Well, the lofty A/TO ratio from the beginning of the season was always too good to be true. And for a while, it seemed like he was heading into a shooting slump similar to last year. But Scheyer turned things around as a shooter toward the end of Phase III, and while the NPOY talk (and even some of the buzz here about jersey retirement) might have faded, he's clearly the best player on this team, impacts the game in so many different ways and is someone we should expect to be really good every game. It's worth noting, too, that his play has improved, historically, in February and March, so maybe the best is yet to come!

7) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
No! With just a couple of exceptions, he was pretty consistent in Phase III. His offensive rebounding, defensive positioning and screening are all critical components to this team's success.

8) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
Not yet. We can all see the flashes of potential, but right now they are still clouded by too many mistakes. His passing needs work, he really loses track of his man and his positioning on D far too often and he commits the silliest fouls on the team (yes, even worse than Zoubek). I still hold out hope that as he keeps playing through these struggles, something will click and he'll start to finish plays, take a bit of pressure of the 3 S's and defend better going forward. He's clealry not ready to be a back-to-the-basket scorer yet -- that will have to happen during the offseason. But he needs just a little more experience to be able to play off the other guys as a catch-and-finish player.

9) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
In the middle stretch of Phase III, this was a big problem. But the changes K made prior to the Georgia Tech win were encouraging. So while Duke struggled to run its offense fluidly on the road or against good defensive teams, there were some signs of progress as well.

10) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?
Not really. Scheyer has been jumping the passing lanes more like he used to, which is resulting in more steals. And we've used some token pressure. But for the most part, Duke is still playing a contain style and is not generating a ton of offense off its defense.

[Grey Devil]

Thanks for your assessment of Phase III, Jumbo. I look forward to your questions for Phase IV.

I have a couple of suggestions:

Will the frosh begin to pick up any more meaningful minutes? Implied in the question is whether or not the light bulbs start clicking on for them. Can they play good defense and cut down on the "freshman mistakes?"

Can our big men (Z, the Plumlees, Kelly and LT) raise their offensive output? Of course there's some overlap with question #1 since two of the big men are frosh, but what I'm wondering is if we'll be able to get more offensive balance (I'm not expecting true balance, just some more) on the team.

Just a couple to think about...

Grey Devil

[Saratoga2]

Thanks for your assessment of Phase III, Jumbo. I look forward to your questions for Phase IV.



Can our big men (Z, the Plumlees, Kelly and LT) raise their offensive output? Of course there's some overlap with question #1 since two of the big men are frosh, but what I'm wondering is if we'll be able to get more offensive balance (I'm not expecting true balance, just some more) on the team.

Just a couple to think about...

Grey Devil

I think the play of our big men both offensively and defensively will be the key for our performance in the NCAA tournament. Without more defense, rebounding and scoring we will be unable to handle the top teams.

One area of offense that the kids should be able to improve is foul shooting. Thomas has gotten very good at 80.4%, Miles is fair at 66.7% (although bricking some lately), but Zoubek is 47.7%, Mason is 48.1% and Kelly is 50%. Any number below 60% has got to be considered low and a lot of foul shot misses come as the front end of 1 and 1s. I find Zoubek's drop to be particularly disturbing, since he gets fouled fairly often and was shooting much better last year.

Another place they could improve our offense is by avoiding TO's and cutting down on fouls. Each of those is a lost opportunity for the team. To date, our bigs have committed 123 TO's and 290 fouls. A lot of our fouls are silly as are the TO's so it is safe to say that a reduction of 10% should be possible and even 20% a goal. Getting 80 more chances to score this year would have been great. Virginia has a goal of reducing their TO's and it has paid dividends for them this year.

[JDev]

Thanks for your assessment of Phase III, Jumbo. I look forward to your questions for Phase IV.

I have a couple of suggestions:

Will the frosh begin to pick up any more meaningful minutes? Implied in the question is whether or not the light bulbs start clicking on for them. Can they play good defense and cut down on the "freshman mistakes?"

Can our big men (Z, the Plumlees, Kelly and LT) raise their offensive output? Of course there's some overlap with question #1 since two of the big men are frosh, but what I'm wondering is if we'll be able to get more offensive balance (I'm not expecting true balance, just some more) on the team.

Just a couple to think about...

Grey Devil

Both very valid. Duke would benefit a great deal, and their ceiling would be hightened, if they could get more balance offensively. Right now the Big 3 do the lion's share of the offensive creation and production. It is great to have three guys as talented as them, but imagine the difficulty guarding Duke if they started to get more offensive post production. There have been many times this year where Mason has seemed to be right on the cusp of a break-out, but he just hasn't gotten over the hump. That is at least somewhat due to those silly fouls, and his difficulty finishing. In the last few weeks he has had many instances where he has made a move to the basket, or had an offensive rebound, or was the recipient in a drive-and-dish situation, and he just can't get the ball to go into the basket. In about a three minute stretch yesterday, he missed a lay-up and a dunk. If he could finish more consistently, that would add another dimension to these Devils. There is no question he has the ability.