Nolan Smith: The Big Leap

[BlueintheFace]

08-09
8.4 pts
1.7 assists
1.05 a/to
34.6 3pt%

09-10
17.4 ppg
3.7 apg
2.36 a/to
48.6 3pt%

I remember when people were talking about how Nolan HAD to step up this season for us to be a better team... well, I tried to tell you guys what was coming and quite frankly nobody wanted to jump on the Nolan Smith train with me.

I realize ACC play hasn't started yet, but does anybody here really think Nolan is going to fall off significantly? The kid looks like a completely different player in sooooo many ways. Let's recognize the magnitude of this leap forward guys.

To borrow from JE,

Blue "If it weren't for Jon being so incredibly impressive so far, Nolan would be the story of the season" intheface

[oldnavy]

I was not "on the band wagon" for Nolan at the beginning of the year, but I did say that "if" he had a breakout year we could be FF good. I was not sure if he would have that type of year, but it appears that he is well on his way. If he keeps it up, and Scheyer continues, and Singler steps up a little more... if, if and if... well watch out! I like what I have seen so far, but there is so much left, we have hardly even begun!

[CameronBornAndBred]

Without GP being on the floor, his numbers were going to improve regardless of whether he improved or not. That being said, I think he is doing very well and I love our backcourt.

[Duke of Nashville]

Nolan's athleticism brought alot of energy to the court last year, and he deserved the starting role from the beginning. Nolan will not have to score 16 ppg in order for us to be successful. I look for him to definitely play a larger role in keeping our offense moving by generating steals, assists, and a floor general’s role of backing the play out and starting back up the offense.

I have faith in Nolan, that he will show his experience, and truly show other teams that he "is a problem."


:cool:

Nolan has played great, we are a better team with Jon being the primary ball handler. I said Nolan would not have to score 16 pts a game for us to win...a s of right now he is scoring 18 pts and we are killing the competition. :D

[Jumbo]

well, I tried to tell you guys what was coming and quite frankly nobody wanted to jump on the Nolan Smith train with me.

Really? I can't think of anyone who DIDN'T expect a big season out of Nolan Smith this year.

[SilkyJ]

Really? I can't think of anyone who DIDN'T expect a big season out of Nolan Smith this year.

Well, I should eat some crow here. I thought he'd have a good season, but not nearly as good as he is playing right now. There was some thread where I said I would take a bet that he wouldn't average more than something like 14ppg, which I thought was reasonable given that he would be a 3rd scoring option and that is about where Jon was last year.

The improvement on his jumpshot and the move to constant "attack mode" is clearly paying off, and this is some crow that I am more than happy to eat!

(And btw Blueintheface, you chimed in on that thread and pegged your prediction around 15ppg, if I recall correctly, so let's not pat yourself on the back too hard.)

[NSDukeFan]

Well, I should eat some crow here. I thought he'd have a good season, but not nearly as good as he is playing right now. There was some thread where I said I would take a bet that he wouldn't average more than something like 14ppg, which I thought was reasonable given that he would be a 3rd scoring option and that is about where Jon was last year.

The improvement on his jumpshot and the move to constant "attack mode" is clearly paying off, and this is some crow that I am more than happy to eat!

(And btw Blueintheface, you chimed in on that thread and pegged your prediction around 15ppg, if I recall correctly, so let's not pat yourself on the back too hard.)

I believe I was in agreement with you.

[hq2]

He seems to have improved his shot selection a lot since the beginning of the year as well; he's not throwing up those in-the-lane-float-and-clangers he was earlier. Definitely much better than last year.

[chrisheery]

I guess it depends on what you thought he could do. I know a few of us predicted >14.5 ppg and were poo-poo'd by many people. I think most of the nay-sayers were coming in around 12.5ppg. Who knows if he will keep up 18ppg, that is a lot of points. But, I think 15 or more is pretty likely. I love the way he is playing now with Jon. They are both setting each other up with drives and kicks to wide open shots. I hope that continues with tougher competition. (Also, if I were telling someone how to defend them, I would probably tell them not to help and make them finish, but I hope other teams don't do that).

[BlueintheFace]

Really? I can't think of anyone who DIDN'T expect a big season out of Nolan Smith this year.

...offseason threads. You know the routine.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

In our 3 biggest games so far, he's gone

10-18 (Zaga) 55%
5-17 (Wisconsin) 29%
5-22 (UConn) 23%

He's taken a tremendous step up, and hopefully we'll see those %'s closer to what they were in the Zaga game in our ACC/Tourney games this season.

[mgtr]

Smith is an indispensable part of the three S's. Or is it three esses? Or even three Amigos? The point is that he has moved up in the world, and I for one am happy to have him. I believe his Dad would be proud of what he has become.
While we are still a bit away from it, I think we will end the season with 3S and 2P (no scatological jokes from you management types!)
I think this team can go quite far. All the way? Maybe, but certainly to the elite eight. At that point, it is mostly luck.
How long has it been since we could say ttat realistically?

[roywhite]

Nolan is playing better all the time as his confidence and consistency improve.

He is now shooting better than 50% on 3-Pt FG...21 for 40 for the year. Duke's outside shooting (and the quality of the shots...most of them open looks) has been excellent. Can we do it against a good pressure defense from Clemson?

[DevilHorns]

I dont know about you guys, but I want to not just beat Clemson,I want to crush them (with a russian accent). As a fan, I remember how much that entire game stung last year. I will not forget it. And I guarantee you Kyle, Jon, Lance, Nolan and the rest of our players from last year will be playing with an edge.

[devildownunder]

Nolan is playing better and I'm happy to see that. But, as the original poster noted, ACC play hasn't started. We all know it doesn't make sense to try to evaluate until at least near the end of the first (now imperfect) round robin.

If Nolan looks as good then as he does now, Duke will be Final Four good, for sure.

[mo.st.dukie]

In our 3 biggest games so far, he's gone

10-18 (Zaga) 55%
5-17 (Wisconsin) 29%
5-22 (UConn) 23%

He's taken a tremendous step up, and hopefully we'll see those %'s closer to what they were in the Zaga game in our ACC/Tourney games this season.

It's already been mentioned but his shot selection has gotten a lot better than it was in Nov/early Dec. It doesn't matter the quality of the opponent when you can see Nolan is making good decisions with the ball and with his shooting. He was trying to do too much in those earlier games but seems to have settled into his role more and understanding how to be in "attack mode" while still playing within himself and playing smart basketball.

[El_Diablo]

08-09
8.4 pts
1.7 assists
1.05 a/to
34.6 3pt%

09-10
17.4 ppg
3.7 apg
2.36 a/to
48.6 3pt%

I remember when people were talking about how Nolan HAD to step up this season for us to be a better team... well, I tried to tell you guys what was coming and quite frankly nobody wanted to jump on the Nolan Smith train with me.

I realize ACC play hasn't started yet, but does anybody here really think Nolan is going to fall off significantly? The kid looks like a completely different player in sooooo many ways. Let's recognize the magnitude of this leap forward guys.

To borrow from JE,

Blue "If it weren't for Jon being so incredibly impressive so far, Nolan would be the story of the season" intheface

ugh.

[gumbomoop]

I remember when people were talking about how Nolan HAD to step up this season for us to be a better team... well, I tried to tell you guys what was coming and quite frankly nobody wanted to jump on the Nolan Smith train with me.

Ok, I'll concede I was in the camp of "Nolan's gotta step up, and I sure hope he will." My repeated comment off-season was that K would be saying to N: "No meek crap. You gotta play." Implicitly, that suggests I just didn't know whether he would. You "knew," I didn't. Gold medal to you [and I think some others], perhaps merely a bronze for me.

But the more interesting point is, what's different in NS's game this season? Comments from K and maybe Collins are that they've been reminding NS that's he's a guard, not a point guard, and that he is best attacking rather than principally setting up others. Playing more freely seems to be just the ticket, as he both scores and sets up others. The other thing is that NS and JS both have been quoted as saying how they're comfortable with each other, how they know where each other will be, etc.

So, to some extent the NS and JS stories this year are interdependent. They seem to think so, anyhow.

[ice-9]

With all the recent attention on Scheyer (four threads on the front page! though absolutely deserved), I'm beginning to wonder whether Nolan is too under the radar this season.

Consider that he's done...
- 18.5 points on 48% shooting (53% from 3)
- 2.7 rebounds
- 3.3 assists
- 1.2 steals

The bigger difference between this year and last year is not just the totals but the consistency in which Nolan has played. Nolan's lowest scoring game is 11 points when he played limited minutes (24) against Gardner Webb.

Nolan has basically more than doubled the number of points and assists this season compared to last year...wow.

[superdave]

Nolan is scoring very creatively this season. I've been amazed at his hang-time and runners in the lane. Fun to watch. He's a handful for other teams to guard. Not many teams can matchup against three really good scorers on the perimeter.

Super "Hope he sticks around for a senior campaign..." Dave

[soccerstud2210]

i am super excited for this years team.

i will admit i was not on the nolan train at all. i will admit that i had given up on him. yes i know. terrible. but i am thankful that nolan has done nothing but strive to get better everyday and every year!

here's to staying under the radar and peaking in MARCH, not january!

GO DUKE!

[superdave]

here's to staying under the radar and peaking in MARCH, not january!


We can peak in March with our freshmen becoming consistent, bigger contributors. We are playing at a higher level now than November, and everyone here can see we have a couple more levels we can climb.

Fun to see the growth.

[soccerstud2210]

We can peak in March with our freshmen becoming consistent, bigger contributors. We are playing at a higher level now than November, and everyone here can see we have a couple more levels we can climb.

Fun to see the growth.

so very true!!! its great to see mason and dawk get better every game!!

i will admit this team is super fun to watch!!! i love it

[OldSchool]

I am absolutely thrilled by Nolan's play this year.

He is playing with more confidence, more concentration and better court vision.

One play that for me epitomized Nolan's frustrations last year was in the Wake Forest game at Wake -- late in the game Duke had the ball on a critical position, and it was an intense moment in the game. Nolan absentmindedly threw a soft pass across the top of the key and it was easily intercepted by a Wake player and taken the other way. It was simply a lack of concentration and focus, and I was tearing my hair out at the time.

This year Nolan is focusing like a laser beam. Whatever it is, he is not getting distracted by the coaches or the crowds or whatever. He is playing in the flow and with good chemistry with his teammates.

He also seems to me to be seeing the court better this year. He is judging his opportunities better. If his defender turns his head, Nolan is by him. If his path to the rim is blocked by a help defender, he kicks the ball out. Last year it seemed like Nolan would sometimes try to force a dribble drive penetration even when he was being well-defended.

Also, I think his finger-rolls and floaters in the lane are more successful this year because he seems to be getting better elevation when he launches his shot.

And he is shooting with a great deal of confidence.

Fantastic.

[Kedsy]

Nolan's play is a big part of the answer to the question a lot of people were asking before the season started: "how can Duke be better when they lost their best player?"

Even then, the reasons seemed obvious to me, without even getting into whether G was truly our best player or not, or the self-evident point that all players improve from one year to the next. Some players improve more than others, of course, and Nolan clearly seemed to be a candidate to make a big leap. But the point of this post is (IMO) Nolan hasn't really taken nearly as big a leap as everyone seems to think.

Last year he looked really good early in the year and then he got hurt, and then he got hurt again, and then at the end of the year he finally looked good again. Was he inconsistent? Sure, and his increased consistency this year is where the year-to-year improvement comes in. But just as big a reason for his doubling his point totals is the fact that G isn't here and his touches are available. G had the ball in his hands an awful lot last year and quite often it stayed there until he put up a shot. Nolan as the fourth option on last year's team couldn't get the touches he needed to put up big numbers. And, more than that, he couldn't get the momentum he needed to feel confident making the plays he's making this year. Now he can and he does; hence the "breakout."

It's great to see, of course. However, for the reasons I mentioned I think both Jon and Miles have taken bigger "leaps" than Nolan in the year-to-year improvement category. Of course, it's great to have three players who came such a long way in one off-season. Or five, if you count Lance and Z who also have made huge strides since last year.

[CDu]

Nolan's play is a big part of the answer to the question a lot of people were asking before the season started: "how can Duke be better when they lost their best player?"

Even then, the reasons seemed obvious to me, without even getting into whether G was truly our best player or not, or the self-evident point that all players improve from one year to the next. Some players improve more than others, of course, and Nolan clearly seemed to be a candidate to make a big leap. But the point of this post is (IMO) Nolan hasn't really taken nearly as big a leap as everyone seems to think.

Last year he looked really good early in the year and then he got hurt, and then he got hurt again, and then at the end of the year he finally looked good again. Was he inconsistent? Sure, and his increased consistency this year is where the year-to-year improvement comes in. But just as big a reason for his doubling his point totals is the fact that G isn't here and his touches are available. G had the ball in his hands an awful lot last year and quite often it stayed there until he put up a shot. Nolan as the fourth option on last year's team couldn't get the touches he needed to put up big numbers. And, more than that, he couldn't get the momentum he needed to feel confident making the plays he's making this year. Now he can and he does; hence the "breakout."

It's great to see, of course. However, for the reasons I mentioned I think both Jon and Miles have taken bigger "leaps" than Nolan in the year-to-year improvement category. Of course, it's great to have three players who came such a long way in one off-season. Or five, if you count Lance and Z who also have made huge strides since last year.

Yes, a big part of why this team is better than last year's team is Nolan's development. Another big part of that improvement is the amazing improvement by Scheyer. Another big part of that is the added depth up front.

But another key part of it that I think gets overlooked is the fact that a bunch of our opponents also took substantial losses to graduation and early entry. We lost one star and some role players, but Clemson lost two of their top scorers and some experienced size, Gonzaga lost four of its top six guys, and UConn lost it's best three players and a key backup guard. We lost some talent, but other teams lost a good bit more. So we had arguably an easier take-off point than I think people believed coming in.

[SilkyJ]

But another key part of it that I think gets overlooked is the fact that a bunch of our opponents also took substantial losses to graduation and early entry. We lost one star and some role players, but Clemson lost two of their top scorers and some experienced size, Gonzaga lost four of its top six guys, and UConn lost it's best three players and a key backup guard. We lost some talent, but other teams lost a good bit more. So we had arguably an easier take-off point than I think people believed coming in.

A bit off topic, but I strongly agree. Beyond, Kansas, Purdue, Mich St. and us, I think a lot of teams are in a bit of a down year in, a lot of that due to graduation/early entry. Normally, without that clear cut top 5 lottery pick and unanimous AA on our squad, I'd be hesitant to call us a NT contender, but I think we are due to the depth in college this year. As along as we aren't on the same side of the bracket as KU or UK, I'm starting to feel goooood.

[Saratoga2]

Nolan's play is a big part of the answer to the question a lot of people were asking before the season started: "how can Duke be better when they lost their best player?"

Even then, the reasons seemed obvious to me, without even getting into whether G was truly our best player or not, or the self-evident point that all players improve from one year to the next. Some players improve more than others, of course, and Nolan clearly seemed to be a candidate to make a big leap. But the point of this post is (IMO) Nolan hasn't really taken nearly as big a leap as everyone seems to think.

Last year he looked really good early in the year and then he got hurt, and then he got hurt again, and then at the end of the year he finally looked good again. Was he inconsistent? Sure, and his increased consistency this year is where the year-to-year improvement comes in. But just as big a reason for his doubling his point totals is the fact that G isn't here and his touches are available. G had the ball in his hands an awful lot last year and quite often it stayed there until he put up a shot. Nolan as the fourth option on last year's team couldn't get the touches he needed to put up big numbers. And, more than that, he couldn't get the momentum he needed to feel confident making the plays he's making this year. Now he can and he does; hence the "breakout."

It's great to see, of course. However, for the reasons I mentioned I think both Jon and Miles have taken bigger "leaps" than Nolan in the year-to-year improvement category. Of course, it's great to have three players who came such a long way in one off-season. Or five, if you count Lance and Z who also have made huge strides since last year.

Nolan has improved a great deal and is a talented scorer and defender. When paired with Scheyer, each seems to play better due to their understanding of each others games. I do think Nolan still has a way to go in his ball security and focus as demonstrated by the 5 unforced turnovers in the last game. Maybe he too could come back for his senior year after attending a point guard camp, as Scheyer did this off season.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Maybe he too could come back for his senior year after attending a point guard camp, as Scheyer did this off season.

For what? He's better at a 2 guard and Ty Thorton and Kyrie would have that position locked next year maybe even Seth.

[moonpie23]

As along as we aren't on the same side of the bracket as KU or UK, I'm starting to feel goooood.

well, there are only two sides....and the committee is going to make SURE those two teams are on opposite sides....

we're gonna have to beat one of them to get to the finals and perhaps meet the other there...

[CDu]

well, there are only two sides....and the committee is going to make SURE those two teams are on opposite sides....

we're gonna have to beat one of them to get to the finals and perhaps meet the other there...

Assuming that they don't trip up sooner, of course...

[MChambers]

Assuming that they don't trip up sooner, of course...

At this point, I'd rather face Kentucky than Texas (although I suppose the committee will put Kansas and Texas on opposite sides, if it isn't too inconvenient).

[CDu]

At this point, I'd rather face Kentucky than Texas (although I suppose the committee will put Kansas and Texas on opposite sides, if it isn't too inconvenient).

I think it's 50/50, but by season's end I think I'll fear Kentucky more than Texas. Kentucky has the deeper frontcourt and they have the most talented player and PG on either of those two teams.

[yancem]

A bit off topic, but I strongly agree. Beyond, Kansas, Purdue, Mich St. and us, I think a lot of teams are in a bit of a down year in, a lot of that due to graduation/early entry. Normally, without that clear cut top 5 lottery pick and unanimous AA on our squad, I'd be hesitant to call us a NT contender, but I think we are due to the depth in college this year. As along as we aren't on the same side of the bracket as KU or UK, I'm starting to feel goooood.

We certainly don't have the top 5 lottery pick but I think that Scheyer is making a strong case for unanimous AA.

[yancem]

well, there are only two sides....and the committee is going to make SURE those two teams are on opposite sides....

we're gonna have to beat one of them to get to the finals and perhaps meet the other there...

You're probably right. At this point I would prefer to be on the same side of the draw as UK since I think that they are more likely to stumble to a lesser team than KU.

[dukestheheat]

Yeah, I worked with Nolan in the off-season. Just chalk all this up to DTH guys.

:)

dth.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, I should eat some crow here. I thought he'd have a good season, but not nearly as good as he is playing right now. There was some thread where I said I would take a bet that he wouldn't average more than something like 14ppg, which I thought was reasonable given that he would be a 3rd scoring option and that is about where Jon was last year.

The improvement on his jumpshot and the move to constant "attack mode" is clearly paying off, and this is some crow that I am more than happy to eat!

(And btw Blueintheface, you chimed in on that thread and pegged your prediction around 15ppg, if I recall correctly, so let's not pat yourself on the back too hard.)

I wish you had taken that bet. You need to have faith - that's what it's all about.

That said, I was very wrong on LT...