8/9-man rotation

[gumbomoop]

Kelly's performance yesterday, even in somewhat limited minutes, raises an interesting question for me, probably one that Jumbo will address in his next "Phase" thread, so if I'm jumping the gun, delete this.

I think there's a general assumption among posters that K goes with an 8-man rotation by last half of season, and maybe even #8 gets limited PT. But maybe this year's team presents him with an opportunity to really play 9, with RK "unofficially" that #9, but with the fewest minutes in any particular game actually depending mostly on Z's and MP1's foul situation.

The glowing comments re RK over on the Gonzaga-game thread says lots of us were really impressed with and pleased for RK - and this in a game where JS and NS were wonderful, and Z really solid.

As for future rotation, I can't imagine DD fallling to #9, nor either of the MPs [both of whom are shot blockers], nor LT, nor Z. So it's [again, "unofficially"] RK, but he's got some game [shooting, passing, court sense], so if his defense measures up, K's gonna have to go with 9, right?

[MarkD83]

It looks like Duke ahs 9 players that can legitmately play and that know their roles.

In any given game we may see only 8 players with Jon, Nolan and Kyle getting most of the minutes.

However, when Duke plays a big team the eight may include Kelly and when we play a small team the eight may include Andre.

[Devilsfan]

Andre is good enough to play for most anybody in the country and needs to be worked into the rotation. He's our youngest and BEST freshman (and that includes Plumlee), imo.

[Kedsy]

It looks like Duke ahs 9 players that can legitmately play and that know their roles.

In any given game we may see only 8 players with Jon, Nolan and Kyle getting most of the minutes.

However, when Duke plays a big team the eight may include Kelly and when we play a small team the eight may include Andre.

Andre's going to be in the rotation no matter what. I suspect Kelly will have a couple DNPs going forward, but hopefully will be getting at least 5 to 10 minutes by the ACC tourney. He looked really good against a pretty good team yesterday. I can't see anybody else dropping out of the rotation at this point.

[MChambers]

Andre is good enough to play for most anybody in the country and needs to be worked into the rotation. He's our youngest and BEST freshman (and that includes Plumlee), imo.

Is averaging 20 minutes a game. Have no fear, he'll be getting plenty of time the rest of the year.

[jv001]

Conference play sometimes play a big part in who gets the minutes. Players have played well during November & December but when conference play begins some of these players take a step back. Each and every game is a grind it out affair. This year I hope all of our guys continue to improve and none take a step back, but I won't be surprised if one or two do. Go Duke!

[DukieInBrasil]

Yeah, Ryan had a sweet game, doing everything possible. i would think that this game definitely earns him more PT going forward. The main knock on him has been defense, but he has blocked shots well all year, steals too, and was just on fire blocking shots for a stretch there in the second half. Blocking shots and getting steals is very much what this team needs since we can't apply lots of pressure with our guards. RK has helped alot in that respect.
and yeah,there is no worry that Andre is somehow not going to play in a game if he is available.

[Indoor66]

Yeah, Ryan had a sweet game, doing everything possible. i would think that this game definitely earns him more PT going forward. The main knock on him has been defense, but he has blocked shots well all year, steals too, and was just on fire blocking shots for a stretch there in the second half. Blocking shots and getting steals is very much what this team needs since we can't apply lots of pressure with our guards. RK has helped alot in that respect.
and yeah,there is no worry that Andre is somehow not going to play in a game if he is available.

I am a big Ryan Kelly fan and posted about what I saw as a light bulb moment in an earlier thread. That said, I think you miss a point about the relative deficiencies in Ryan's defense. It is not his individual statistics that are lacking, it is his failure to move properly and be in proper positions withing the team defense concepts that K has installed for this year. He is improving, but if he fails to meet his help defense assignments he will not get playing time. This was Olek's failing (among others). I believe that Ryan is getting it and will continue to get more and more playing time - his confidence will grow and his shot will go in as well.

[roywhite]

Conference play sometimes play a big part in who gets the minutes. Players have played well during November & December but when conference play begins some of these players take a step back. Each and every game is a grind it out affair. This year I hope all of our guys continue to improve and none take a step back, but I won't be surprised if one or two do. Go Duke!

That's a good point. It seems like freshmen often play looser at the beginning of the season; in a sense, they don't realize what they don't know. By mid-season, they know a lot more, but haven't fully integrated the knowledge and play more tentatively. In the second half of the conference season, the learning process is further along and they improve. By season's end, they don't play like freshmen.

Of course, that's just a generalization; it works a little differently for some individuals. I think all 3 freshmen will continue to have significant roles. There's a very nice blend of maturity and young talent on this team.

[Saratoga2]

We will no doubt start players and make substitutions based on matchups.

Clearly Scheyer, Singler and Smith will start and play a lot of minutes barring illness or injury.

In the case of our 4's and 5's though, I would think LT and Miles would start against the quicker teams like Villanova, while Zoubek and Miles/Mason might start against really big and physical lineups. Whichever of the bigs start, the others will see lots of playing time. LT might also substitute in for Singler for defensive purposes.

As far as substitution of Andre, he can sub in for any of the front court people. He is getting 20 minutes a game now, and with Scheyer, Smith and Singler, you have to expect each one to get upwards of 30 minutes a game. If they did only that, there could be 10 minutes left for another sub.

The other situations that might develop is that we might get behind and need offense more than defense or the other team might go small and we might have to go with our smaller quicker lineups.

It appears that 10 minutes is the most PT that Kelly is likely to get, despite his very encouraging play to date.

It is a long season and injuries may change the mix along the way. I do agree, we have 9 players who can do a good job at the Div 1 level and it will be great to see them develop as a team. Their defense if already getting there while the offense will come.

[Kedsy]

Yeah, Ryan had a sweet game, doing everything possible. i would think that this game definitely earns him more PT going forward.


It appears that 10 minutes is the most PT that Kelly is likely to get, despite his very encouraging play to date.

I voted for Ryan as MOTM and I'm delighted with his progress so far, but I think Saratoga2 is right. The 10 or 11 minutes Ryan played against Gonzaga is going to be his playing time ceiling this year. My guess is it will likely be 5 to 7 minutes. He may even have one or two DNPs.

I don't think that's a bad thing, either. Even 5 minutes a game is enough time time for him to learn and contribute and if some emergency arises (injury, mass foul trouble) he will have enough experience to step up in a particular game if we need him. Next year he can take the next step.

[sagegrouse]

Simple reason for a 9-man rotation. If we start Miles and LT, then Zoubs, Mason and Ryan are a very important resource: 15 fouls off the bench.:);) This is a rotation for really tough defense and board play w/o the concern about fouls.

If the bench was primarily guards, a deeper rotation would not be as necessary.

sagegrouse
'Of course, in 2004 the zebras had no trouble at all concocting reasons to DQ Shelden, Shav and Nick against UConn. Harder to do with this group, but if the officials are really motivated, anything is possible'

[NSDukeFan]

That said, I think you miss a point about the relative deficiencies in Ryan's defense. It is not his individual statistics that are lacking, it is his failure to move properly and be in proper positions withing the team defense concepts that K has installed for this year. He is improving, but if he fails to meet his help defense assignments he will not get playing time. This was Olek's failing (among others). I believe that Ryan is getting it and will continue to get more and more playing time - his confidence will grow and his shot will go in as well.
You're right. The blocks and steals are nice, but don't have a lot to do with whether Ryan will play in the future. He seems very basketball smart (and a bright individual from what little I can tell) and I think he will pick up defensive assignments and improve quite a bit as the year progresses, but I have to agree with...

The 10 or 11 minutes Ryan played against Gonzaga is going to be his playing time ceiling this year. My guess is it will likely be 5 to 7 minutes. He may even have one or two DNPs.

I don't think that's a bad thing, either. Even 5 minutes a game is enough time time for him to learn and contribute and if some emergency arises (injury, mass foul trouble) he will have enough experience to step up in a particular game if we need him. Next year he can take the next step.

Ryan is going to have a tough time getting more minutes, unless there are injuries; K all of a sudden starts looking to rest Kyle and give Ryan some minutes as an offensive 3 with Lance; or one of Miles, Mason, Lance or Z drop out of, or fall behind Ryan in, the rotation. It certainly could happen, but either way I am excited about the prospects of improvement from our frontcourt.

[NYDukie]

Was at the Garden Saturday and was happy to see Kelly get some quality run in the first half even if the overall amount of minutes totaled 11 minutes. When Kelly contributed to a nice stretch there in the first half you can sense the crowd pullilng for him and also recongnize that what he did helped the team's cause. Overall, I was very happy with his play and hopefully he can build from here.

As many have pointed out, Kelly is the defacto 9th guy. However, there is a role for him here. He can be that other guy besides Dawkins that can come in and hit some open jumpers and contribute some sound play, specifically amongst the bigs. Is he a 20-25 minute type of player? At this time, most likely not, due primarily to some defensive defencies that other teams can exploit, especially the more athletically skilled ones, if he was to play large chunks of time. Kelly is probably more of the 10 minute player, give or take, depending on matchups, flows of game, etc. However, even if he only gets some minutes during certain games, it's important I feel to get him on the court. This not only keeps him involved, because you never know when he may be needed but also helps other keep fresh and build trust from his teammates to contribute when he plays. I have to admit that duing the first 10 minutes of the game with how the game was called that Kelly could be in a situation in which he was needed late. You never know how games or seasons flow but incorporating Kelly into the teams rotatoin here on out should be considered as a important piece of the puzzle.

[Highlander]

This probably isn't the case, but it seems to me that K has been subbing guys systematically through the first rotations.

Zoubs subs for Mi. Plumlee
Ma. Plumlee subs for Thomas
Kelly subs for Singler
Dawkins subs for Smith

If/when Jon subs out, one of the starters comes back in and the rotation favors whomever is playing better on that given night. Anyway, like I said it is probably not the case, but I found myself almost being able to know who was coming in for who, and I don't recall ever being able to do that before.

[Greg_Newton]

It's a great problem to have when your 9th best player seems deserving of more than the 10 mpg he's getting!

I think the earlier point about the 25 interior fouls to give is an important one. Zoubek has made huge strides (literally - his lateral quickness is almost shockingly better than it ever has been), but he's been getting away with a LOT of fouls recently. He still has a tendency to challenge post shots with his arms at a 45-degree angle, and I noticed 2-3 no-brainer fouls that he flat-out got away with when I watched the Zags game again. Miles also uses his body way too much when playing 1-on-1 post defense, and picks up a lot of borderline fouls on athletic, physical plays.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan gets a a decent amount of minutes not because he moves up in the rotation, but because our post rotation will often be shorter than 5 deep due to foul trouble. It really is a HUGE luxury to have 5 unique, effective 6-8 to 7-1 post players that you can rotate without any real dropoff... I imagine it must take quite a toll on opposing posts.

[MChambers]

It's a great problem to have when your 9th best player seems deserving of more than the 10 mpg he's getting!

I think the earlier point about the 25 interior fouls to give is an important one. Zoubek has made huge strides (literally - his lateral quickness is almost shockingly better than it ever has been), but he's been getting away with a LOT of fouls recently. He still has a tendency to challenge post shots with his arms at a 45-degree angle, and I noticed 2-3 no-brainer fouls that he flat-out got away with when I watched the Zags game again. Miles also uses his body way too much when playing 1-on-1 post defense, and picks up a lot of borderline fouls on athletic, physical plays.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan gets a a decent amount of minutes not because he moves up in the rotation, but because our post rotation will often be shorter than 5 deep due to foul trouble. It really is a HUGE luxury to have 5 unique, effective 6-8 to 7-1 post players that you can rotate without any real dropoff... I imagine it must take quite a toll on opposing posts.

Yes, that's the one thing I didn't like about Saturday's game. Miles got five fouls in an amazingly short period of time; Zoubek picked two fouls when he first came in (one was his old standby, a moving screen). One or two of Miles's fouls were borderline, but others could have been avoided. For example, once a Gonzaga big man (Sacre?) did a nice, but very difficult spin move into the lane, successfully avoided charging into the help defender, and put up a very difficult shot over Miles, who tried to block, reaching over into the shooter's arms, drawing a foul. There was very little chance the Gonzaga play was going to make the shot, so Miles would have been much better off being less aggressive on the shot block (and you are always better off not reaching over into the shooter's arms). As others have observed here, Kelly is doing much better job of timing his block attempts, even though he is not as strong as MP1 or MP2 and certainly cannot jump as high.

Zoubek generally did a very good job of keeping his arms straight up, but did reach over and foul a shooter late in the game.

Even with all of Duke's post depth, the fouls down low are a major weakness. You're giving other teams easy points, and letting them get into the bonus and double bonus way to quickly.

The good news is that this is the first year in a long time where the announcers cannot say that Duke has made more free throws than their opponents have attempted.

I really hope MP1 and MP2 can cut down on the fouls. (I hope Zoubek can too, but after more than three years, and seeing so many bad calls against him, I'm not optimistic.)

[Bob Green]

The good news is that this is the first year in a long time where the announcers cannot say that Duke has made more free throws than their opponents have attempted.



How is this good news? Putting aside the negative media talking heads desire to spin their "Duke gets all the calls" mantra, playing smart defense and aggressive offense which results in making more free throws than your opponent attempts, is smart basketball. You play the game to win!

[Indoor66]

How is this good news? Putting aside the negative media talking heads desire to spin their "Duke gets all the calls" mantra, playing smart defense and aggressive offense which results in making more free throws than your opponent attempts, is smart basketball. You play the game to win!

Well said, sir. The question is not how, it is how many.

[gumbomoop]

It's a great problem to have when your 9th best player seems deserving of more than the 10 mpg he's getting!

Agreed, and I'd guess other posters agree with this, too. Part of my OP point was that if RK's defense comes along, his other skills merit PT. And since it's highly unlikely he'd move ahead of any of the others, he's still #9 ..... BUT a #9 who plays maybe 8-12 minutes even in tough games. And if so, then we've got, possibly-to-likely, a real 9-man rotation for first time in my [uncertain] memory.

I'm not arguing with anyone here, but am speculating that RK's talent will "force" K to play him a bit, maybe more. I could see some DNP's, but again would speculate this will happen only if RK's defense isn't up to snuff.

It's a nice holiday break topic: all 3 new fellows are talented contributors. And future stars.

[1Devil]

It is my opinion that Singler does not get better with overextended minutes (on the contrary, I think too many minutes hurts his game). I think we get more out of him on a per minute basis at 25 minutes per game than 35 minutes. I'd love to see Kelly getting those extra minutes on a consistent basis.

[Jumbo]

It is my opinion that Singler does not get better with overextended minutes (on the contrary, I think too many minutes hurts his game). I think we get more out of him on a per minute basis at 25 minutes per game than 35 minutes. I'd love to see Kelly getting those extra minutes on a consistent basis.

How do you explain his performance in the ACC Tourney last year, then?

(Also, you really want to keep one of your best two players on the bench for almost half the game? And you want his minutes -- remember, he plays on the perimeter -- to go to a 6'10" guy who can't guard perimeter players?)

[1Devil]

How do you explain his performance in the ACC Tourney last year, then?

(Also, you really want to keep one of your best two players on the bench for almost half the game? And you want his minutes -- remember, he plays on the perimeter -- to go to a 6'10" guy who can't guard perimetetr players?)

Every rule has its exception, but I will point to the Wisconsin game this season to support my case. Would you have Singler play 40 minutes? Yeah, against a small team maybe Dawkins gets some of those minutes.

[MChambers]

How is this good news? Putting aside the negative media talking heads desire to spin their "Duke gets all the calls" mantra, playing smart defense and aggressive offense which results in making more free throws than your opponent attempts, is smart basketball. You play the game to win!

I was just trying to be ironic. Is there an emoticon for that?;)

[airowe]

Every rule has its exception, but I will point to the Wisconsin game this season to support my case. Would you have Singler play 40 minutes? Yeah, against a small team maybe Dawkins gets some of those minutes.

Singler was THE reason we even had a chance to win that game. Pretty bad data point.

FTR, I do think he should be playing around 30 - 35 mpg, depending on matchups and quality of opponent. He's right in that range, 33.7 mpg.

[Jumbo]

Every rule has its exception, but I will point to the Wisconsin game this season to support my case. Would you have Singler play 40 minutes? Yeah, against a small team maybe Dawkins gets some of those minutes.

So your example is one game, yet yours is the "rule" and mine is the "exception?" I don't understand that. Nor, for that matter, do I understand your choice of the Wisconsin game, in which Singler played quite well.

[hq2]

I think Kelly's P.T. may also depend on how Singler is playing. Singler has had good games, and not-so-good ones this year. I think K may see that Singler
is not having a good shooting game, and sub in Kelly and give him some P.T.
Or maybe Singler may be getting tired and starts missing his shots, and then
K gives Kelly more time.

Another factor aiding Kelly in this area is that Singler has tended to wear down towards the end of the season. As the season goes on and Kelly gets better, K may have more confidence in him, and give him more minutes to keep Singler from wearing out. Kelly's minutes will depend mostly on solid D, and an ability to hit some outside shots to open up the defense. If he can do that, we'll see him plenty.

[NSDukeFan]

Another factor aiding Kelly in this area is that Singler has tended to wear down towards the end of the season. As the season goes on and Kelly gets better, K may have more confidence in him, and give him more minutes to keep Singler from wearing out. Kelly's minutes will depend mostly on solid D, and an ability to hit some outside shots to open up the defense. If he can do that, we'll see him plenty.

I believe you missed Singler's sophomore season last year.

[Bob Green]

I was just trying to be ironic. Is there an emoticon for that?;)

My mistake. I interpreted your post literally.

[Bob Green]

It's a nice holiday break topic: all 3 new fellows are talented contributors. And future stars.

I agree. Obviously Mason Plumlee isn't where we expected he would be because of the injury to his wrist, but it is equally obvious that he will continue to improve as the year progresses and his contributions on both ends of the court are going to grow. In other words, to use a cliche, "Mason has a huge upside."

Andre Dawkins possesses solid offensive skills. He is money from deep and has the athleticism to drive to the hole or pull up and knockdown the midrange jumper. As the season progresses, I expect to see Dawkins scoring points via all three options. His defense needs to improve and I expect it will.

Ryan Kelly, a player I had limited expectations for as a freshman, has demonstrated heady play and unexpected talent on defense. He really knows how to feed the ball inside from the high post and with his ability to hit the 15' jumper that makes him dangerous. He will continue to earn minutes.

As a longtime fan who has experienced the best of times and the worst of times, I'm very optimistic that this team, which is already a solid squad, will continue to improve and be an absoulte monster by March. Once again, turning to a cliche, "Duke is going to be a tough out come tournament time."

[jv001]

Last year about this time, many Duke fans were throwing Gerald under the bus for not playing like they thought he should be playing. Now this year it's Kyle. If I were a betting man, I would bet that Kyle get's it going just like Gerald did last year. We need to remember he's getting adjusted to playing primarly outside-in this year. His first two years it was just the opposite. Go Duke!

[hq2]

Kyle will figure it out. I think early on, he believed he needed to do too much.
Now I think he has more confidence in the players around him, and he'll get
them the ball more.

Correction to above: I said "tended to" wear out; he did O.K. last year down the stretch, but if K continues the earlier pattern this year of playing him all the time, he'll wear out again. However, with the maturation of the other frontline players, I don't think that will happen this year.

[NYDukie]

Without getting into Kyle's exact #'s, I'm guessing he is around the 18/7/3 line for points, rebounds and assists. Overall, very good numbers. I think what many of our fellow posters are a bit concerned about is Kyle's inconsistency the first 10 games. We've seen great games such as that against Wisconsin and others not so great with most in between. IMO the primary factor for such inconsistency is the adjusting to a new role again for him. Let's be honest, over Kyle's 2+ years on the court, he has played many different roles - defending the post, running around defending guards, handling the ball, initiating the offense at various times, posting up, shooting the three. As much as Kyle's versatility is a great attribute for the sake of the team it can also be a hinderence to him and the team when floating from role to role each season and even at times within the season. I will admit, it has been a bit frustrating watching him but I DO UNDERSTAND that he bears many responsibilities and that you can see and appreciate the effort he puts into each game. That said, Kyle deserves patience from the fan base to get off the schneid a bit, if you want to call it that, and I'm sure by year's end he will be consistenly be putting up 18/8/3 each night and no one will be the worse for it.

As for the 8/9 man rotation, I must agree with most posters that this seems to be a breath of fresh air. Most importantly, we have 9 guys who can contribute and be counted on. I know RK is perceived as the 1 question mark but if we all have the understanding of what the real expectation of his contributions will be (8-12 minutes per game depending on matchups, flows of game, RK's defense) then we, as fans, will be content. Think of him similarly to how many of us perceive Zoubs. If we can realistically manage our expectations of them, understand we can get PRODUCTIVE "X" minutes from them rather than try to extrapolate them over "X" minutes which probably are unrealistic, then we will be all happy and have a team with guys who know their roles, are productive in them and have a successful season.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Great post. I think you nailed the inconsistency factor pretty well. I agree that we should be patient with Kyle - we're only a third into the season. However, a few of us have been saying something for a few games now: this isn't Kyle's team. He may be the most versatile and the most talented. But this isn't his team. It's Scheyer's, and I think people are a) surprised that Scheyer is playing so well, b) Scheyer is more consistent than Kyle, c) Scheyer is averaging better numbers than Kyle, and, because of all of these reasons, many assume that Kyle is underachieving because he isn't the "best" player on the team.

Anyway, that's that. What I've also been arguing, and feel that I may be the underwhelming minority, is that Singler may possibly be the third banana on this team. Nolan has been more consistent, is actually putting up great numbers (2nd leading scorer; Singler is third), and he and Scheyer have the best chemistry on the court. I think Scheyer is very underrated, but I'm willing to argue that Nolan is underrated as well (but not as underrated ;)). Sure, Nolan keeps his head down when he drives - but he is our best driver, our best on-the-ball-defender, and has helped to bring some "swagga" into this ball club.

[NSDukeFan]

I wasn't sure where to put this. I wonder if Kyle could still be all-ACC if he continues to struggle the whole year like he has so far.
He is averaging 15.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, a block and a steal each game and playing very solid defense at a new position, though his fg% is low. How many people would love to be struggling like that? It's funny how far perceptions can change based on a single game, or two. I guess that's what happens when we have 10 days between games a couple of times around the holidays. Will everyone remember what a great player he is after his next 20-10 game?

[Kedsy]

Anyway, that's that. What I've also been arguing, and feel that I may be the underwhelming minority, is that Singler may possibly be the third banana on this team. Nolan has been more consistent, is actually putting up great numbers (2nd leading scorer; Singler is third), and he and Scheyer have the best chemistry on the court. I think Scheyer is very underrated, but I'm willing to argue that Nolan is underrated as well (but not as underrated ;)). Sure, Nolan keeps his head down when he drives - but he is our best driver, our best on-the-ball-defender, and has helped to bring some "swagga" into this ball club.

Nolan had a great game against Gonzaga, but he has been just as inconsistent (if not moreso) than Kyle.


I wasn't sure where to put this. I wonder if Kyle could still be all-ACC if he continues to struggle the whole year like he has so far.
He is averaging 15.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, a block and a steal each game and playing very solid defense at a new position, though his fg% is low. How many people would love to be struggling like that? It's funny how far perceptions can change based on a single game, or two. I guess that's what happens when we have 10 days between games a couple of times around the holidays. Will everyone remember what a great player he is after his next 20-10 game?

I agree those are all-ACC caliber numbers. I also agree that many in the fan base (or at least DBR posters) tend to judge every Duke player's season (if not his entire career) based on his most recent game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Nolan had a great game against Gonzaga, but he has been just as inconsistent (if not moreso) than Kyle.

Disagree. From a scoring perspective, Kyle has scored in double figures against all of our opponents, except for the two ranked teams (UCONN and the zags) where he averaged 10 shots. So far on the year, Kyle is shooting 20 basis points lower than last year.

Nolan, on the other hand, has scored in double figures for all games played and is shooting 1 basis point lower than last year.

Of course, scoring isn't everything. Singler averages a lot more rebounds (7.2 to 2.6) and Smith averages a few more assists (3.3 to 2.8). They both play great defense, always play hard, and are fun to watch.

You can argue that Singler is the second banana (or even the first) and more people will agree with you. But on the consistency matter, I'd have to take Smith's year over Singler's so far. That said, I don't think it's that big of an issue. It's only the beginning of the season, and I'm confident Singler will step it up. I just hope Smith keeps it up as well.

[Kedsy]

Disagree. From a scoring perspective, Kyle has scored in double figures against all of our opponents, except for the two ranked teams (UCONN and the zags) where he averaged 10 shots. So far on the year, Kyle is shooting 20 basis points lower than last year.

Nolan, on the other hand, has scored in double figures for all games played and is shooting 1 basis point lower than last year.

Of course, scoring isn't everything. Singler averages a lot more rebounds (7.2 to 2.6) and Smith averages a few more assists (3.3 to 2.8). They both play great defense, always play hard, and are fun to watch.

You can argue that Singler is the second banana (or even the first) and more people will agree with you. But on the consistency matter, I'd have to take Smith's year over Singler's so far. That said, I don't think it's that big of an issue. It's only the beginning of the season, and I'm confident Singler will step it up. I just hope Smith keeps it up as well.


As you correctly point out, points are not necessarily the best measure of consistency. Nolan shot 5 for 17 against Wisconsin and 5 for 22 against UConn (and those shooting percentages reflect what I saw on the court: Nolan didn't play very well in those games). His assist to turnover ratio in the NIT games in New York was a combined 2 to 5. He managed zero (0) rebounds against both St. John's and Gardner-Webb. I'm not saying Kyle has been playing better than Nolan but it's hard to argue that Nolan has been playing with any consistency at all. That said, I expect the consistency to come, for both Nolan and Kyle.

[gumbomoop]

You can argue that Singler is the second banana (or even the first) and more people will agree with you. But on the consistency matter, I'd have to take Smith's year over Singler's so far. That said, I don't think it's that big of an issue. It's only the beginning of the season, and I'm confident Singler will step it up. I just hope Smith keeps it up as well.

I agree with FDD here that "I don't think it's that big of an issue," for the following reason: As long as none of the "three S's" goes into a prolonged slump - and I for one doubt that any of them will - we're in real good shape, esp. if in the vast majority of games any 2 of them have good games.

This thread is about the likely development of a 9-man rotation, so that any 2 or 3 of the other 6 players will surely contribute really solidly in any particular game. It's likely that we'll lose a game or 2 or 3 along the way, but not merely because one of the three S's had an off night. Other things would have to be wrong that night: e.g., a 2d of the S's also has a sub-par game, or lousy free throw shooting, or a key play near game's end that doesn't go our way, or "we wuz robbed by the refs," etc.

But only rarely will we need to agonize about why we lost. We're in better shape, I think, than most posters might have thought a few months back. The ACC is still a tough haul, and I'll admit that nationally KU, UK, and Texas - but no one else - look a half-notch above us, but we won't have to worry about those top 3 until Elite 8..... or later.

We're close enough to golden. Happy holidays!

[Jumbo]

Anyway, that's that. What I've also been arguing, and feel that I may be the underwhelming minority, is that Singler may possibly be the third banana on this team. Nolan has been more consistent, is actually putting up great numbers (2nd leading scorer; Singler is third), and he and Scheyer have the best chemistry on the court.

I can't agree with either of those points. Despite Kyle's relative "struggles," he has been steadier than Nolan. In particular, Nolan has only recently started to make strides in his ability to drive and kick. He has forced a lot of shots. He hasn't impacted the game in as many was as Kyle.

And I also don't agree that Nolan and Scheyer have the kind of chemistry that Kyle and Scheyer have shown yet. Jon and Kyle seem to know where the other is at all times, and react instinctively to what the other does. The Gonzaga game was really the first time I saw anything close to that from Jon and Nolan -- the series of kickouts was outstanding. Let's hope they build off that.

[NYDukie]

Without getting into specifics, I think we are starting to nitpik a bit about Singler along with that of the pecking order of the Three S's. I also think we are a bit clouded in what makes the better college or Duke player - NBA draft predictions or college production.

With regards to the "Three S's", we lump them in there and give them this title for a reason. The reason being that they are our the teams most productive and talented players AT THIS TIME (I know someone will say Mason is the most talented but until his production catches up, he cannot be included in this discussion). Each of the three bring different assets to the table and as a result there is very little difference in deciphering who is best and hence why we call them the "Three S's. However, I will agree with one poster that this is more Scheyer's team than that of eitehr Singler or Smith and that Scheyer is the leader of team and the "Three S's".

Finally, though Scheyer may be the leader, arguably having the better season of the three right now (I tend to think this), is he the best NBA prospect of the three? Probably not, that would most likely be Singler though I think Smith could actually wind up being so when it's all said and done. I think the NBA value of Singler schewed the perception of who may be Duke's leader at the beginning of the season and also that of those who are in the group of thinking Singler has been a disappointment slightly this year. A group that I AM NOT IN.

In the end though, I think each of the "Three S's" will have their moments when they lead the teams during a stretch of the season and that we will revisit who is the best of the three a couple of more times later in the year.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS to everyone as I may be in and out checking the posts on a final lazy day at work and getting ready for Christmas Eve and Day with my family, especially the lil one!

[sagegrouse]

Simple reason for a 9-man rotation. If we start Miles and LT, then Zoubs, Mason and Ryan are a very important resource: 15 fouls off the bench.:);) This is a rotation for really tough defense and board play w/o the concern about fouls.

If the bench was primarily guards, a deeper rotation would not be as necessary.

sagegrouse
'Of course, in 2004 the zebras had no trouble at all concocting reasons to DQ Shelden, Shav and Nick against UConn. Harder to do with this group, but if the officials are really motivated, anything is possible'

I brought my earlier post back up to the top because I never got any feedback -- probably due to my well advertised lack of humility.

It seems to me that when you have four capable players 6-10 or taller plus LT plus Kyle in a pinch, that you have options you don't have with a smaller squad. K can emphasize aggressive post defense throughout the game because he has the horses. As Al McGuire once said, "after a player has four fouls, forget about his defense." Because subs are readily available, you see much more aggressive defense by Zoubs and the Plumlees.

More big players => more aggressive inside defense => more fouls => more substitutions => deeper rotation. In other words, if you got it, flaunt it! Or maybe, foul it! I predict we will have a nine-man rotation this year.

I remember 20 years ago when a Clemson team, with the large and very skilled Elden Campbell and Dale Davis, came to Duke. Dick Vitale said, "Coach K says that [little used] Crawford Palmer and Clay Buckley are going to play a lot tonight. I'll tell you why -- that's ten fouls off the bench." Duke upset the Tigers. Clay got four fouls in six minutes.

It seems obvious to me that a K team with so much size will have a deeper rotation than a team with 7-8 gazelles. So obvious, I am convinced I am probably wrong.

sagegrouse
'I am in the Class of Mullins. Thse who claim Class of Heyman, Class of Grant, etc. are engaging in hyperbole [Heavens!]. I am in the Class of Mullins because Jeff was our Class President'

[gumbomoop]

I brought my earlier post back up to the top because I never got any feedback -- probably due to my well advertised lack of humility.

More big players => more aggressive inside defense => more fouls => more substitutions => deeper rotation. In other words, if you got it, flaunt it! Or maybe, foul it! I predict we will have a nine-man rotation this year.

It seems obvious to me that a K team with so much size will have a deeper rotation than a team with 7-8 gazelles. So obvious, I am convinced I am probably wrong.

As one who regularly posts brilliant analyses that just occasionally receive less than the appropriate obsequious acknowledgment, I feel your pain.

More to the point, as the OP, I think your explanation of why we're likely to see a real 9-man rotation much of the time is rather more specific, and perhaps more compelling, than my OP focus only on RK.

But, in the spirit of a family reunion during the holidays, let's argue a bit:
the joy we experience in seeing glimmers of real development in RK is what led me to suggest that K would be "forced" to go to an actual 9-man rotation for the first time in some seasons. Since RK is probably mostly an inside defender, that definitely gives more interior fouls. But is that really why K goes, sort of, with 9? After all, the 4 bigs ahead of RK give us 20 fouls, and that's a whole lot more [than recently] even if RK is a DNP. Without disagreeing with your "More big players = ......." logic, I'm thinking it's RK's offense that will provide "value-added": i.e., good shot, nice high post passing, smarts. In my view, and I hope K's, RK will get some PT to add this value so long as his defense is acceptable.

[sagegrouse]

But, in the spirit of a family reunion during the holidays, let's argue a bit:
the joy we experience in seeing glimmers of real development in RK is what led me to suggest that K would be "forced" to go to an actual 9-man rotation for the first time in some seasons. Since RK is probably mostly an inside defender, that definitely gives more interior fouls. But is that really why K goes, sort of, with 9? After all, the 4 bigs ahead of RK give us 20 fouls, and that's a whole lot more [than recently] even if RK is a DNP. Without disagreeing with your "More big players = ......." logic, I'm thinking it's RK's offense that will provide "value-added": i.e., good shot, nice high post passing, smarts. In my view, and I hope K's, RK will get some PT to add this value so long as his defense is acceptable.

Thanks for your comments.

I was working coaching tendencies not the numbers. If I look at the numbers, I think we begin with eight -- which one has not always been able to say about Duke. K has a two-platoon system for his front line that seems to extend well beyond the first few minutes of the game. Those four plus Kyle plus three in the backcourt give us eight. You are absolutely right that the issue is, when does Ryan Kelly play and why? Ryan seems to be Kyle's sub when Kyle needs a breather, but this will only amount to 5-6 minutes per game. If he can display consistent offense he should get 10-15 minutes, and he doesn't have to nail outside shots: I was impressed with his interior passing against the Zags. If he needs to earn his minutes through inside defense, then he will likely play only when foul problems escalate.

sagegrouse

[roywhite]

Not much to add, but:
1. I think Ryan Kelly can carve out a role with 10 minutes or better per game, and that will be to the benefit of the team.
2. Both sagegrouse and gumbomoop are excellent posters and analysts; I read and enjoy their posts.

Keep up the good work and Merry Christmas.

[Bob Green]

As one who regularly posts brilliant analyses that just occasionally receive less than the appropriate obsequious acknowledgment, I feel your pain.

I thought only my brilliance was being ignored.

The 8/9 man rotation will be utilized throughout 2010. Sagegrouse has hit the nail on the head with his explanation of more aggressive inside defense => more fouls => deeper rotation. I view Ryan Kelly as ninth in the rotation, but believe he will be given an appropriate amount of playing time during ACC games and beyond. He knows the game so his defense will continue to improve and, on offense, he can both shoot and pass. I'll be shocked if he doesn't average around 9-11 minutes per game.

Andre Dawkins is and will continue to average 20 minutes per game for two reasons. First, he is our lone perimeter substitute player, and second, he can flat out score the ball.

[gumbomoop]

I'll be shocked if he doesn't average around 9-11 minutes per game.

Andre Dawkins is and will continue to average 20 minutes per game for two reasons. First, he is our lone perimeter substitute player, and second, he can flat out score the ball.

I fervently hope you'll not be shocked, for 2 reasons:

(1) RK, who maybe didn't look "ready" at first, more recently has persuaded me and others that it was just a matter of adjustment, and he is ready, with some real skills that add actual value, more than just giving someone a breather. I don't mean to imply that it's a matter of RK's "deserving" to "take" minutes from big X or Y; rather, it's quite straightforward: he can play, and so should.

(2) The larger issue of having a 9-man rotation. Now we all know this doesn't mean 9 guys averaging 22 min each. We know the "3 S's" are gonna play 35 mpg each in big games. Without meaning to revive the irritating [to some] argument re main guys being worn out at season's end, I see no reason, given DD's ability to play substantial perimeter minutes, and RK's value in shorter stints, that any of the 3 S's should have to play 40 minutes very much at all. [I got no objection to any of the 3 playing 40 if he's on fire in a particular game. But not repeatedly.]

[Indoor66]

I fervently hope you'll not be shocked, for 2 reasons:

(1) RK, who maybe didn't look "ready" at first, more recently has persuaded me and others that it was just a matter of adjustment, and he is ready, with some real skills that add actual value, more than just giving someone a breather. I don't mean to imply that it's a matter of RK's "deserving" to "take" minutes from big X or Y; rather, it's quite straightforward: he can play, and so should.

(2) The larger issue of having a 9-man rotation. Now we all know this doesn't mean 9 guys averaging 22 min each. We know the "3 S's" are gonna play 35 mpg each in big games. Without meaning to revive the irritating [to some] argument re main guys being worn out at season's end, I see no reason, given DD's ability to play substantial perimeter minutes, and RK's value in shorter stints, that any of the 3 S's should have to play 40 minutes very much at all. [I got no objection to any of the 3 playing 40 if he's on fire in a particular game. But not repeatedly.]

Who is DD?

[jv001]

Who is DD?

Dre Dawkins? Go Duke!

[showtime08]

I like Kelly's game more than Plumlee 2.0's right now. By the end of the season perhaps not but right now he is doing very well for a Freshman. He is not missing many defensive assignments and is doing the little things that do not show up in the box score.

I'm looking forward to seeing both of these guys develop over the next few years!

[Indoor66]

Dre Dawkins? Go Duke!

Oh, an abbreviation of an abbreviation. Very clear.

[superdave]

We need our big guys to defend without fouling. We need them to hedge, rotate, help and establish position without fouling because it's better to make a big guy miss a 4 footer than to give him a 3 point play. It's better to make someone hit a tough shot than to bail them out. And big guys play less cautiously when they are not in foul trouble. Duke's goal is to make the other team inefficient, rather than to make them hit free throws. With our big guys doing all these things well, and without fouling, our team concept kicks in and guys can gamble more and gets steals and force turnovers because they know the guys behind them will help. It has a multiplier effect.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html


Here's some relevant points from the February article about Battier:

Bryant isn’t like that. He is better at pretty much everything than everyone else, but there are places on the court, and starting points for his shot, that render him less likely to help his team. When he drives to the basket, he is exactly as likely to go to his left as to his right, but when he goes to his left, he is less effective. When he shoots directly after receiving a pass, he is more efficient than when he shoots after dribbling. He’s deadly if he gets into the lane and also if he gets to the baseline; between the two, less so. “The absolute worst thing to do,” Battier says, “is to foul him.” It isn’t that Bryant is an especially good free-throw shooter but that, as Morey puts it, “the foul is the worst result of a defensive play.” One way the Rockets can see which teams think about the game as they do is by identifying those that “try dramatically not to foul.” The ideal outcome, from the Rockets’ statistical point of view, is for Bryant to dribble left and pull up for an 18-foot jump shot; force that to happen often enough and you have to be satisfied with your night. “If he has 40 points on 40 shots, I can live with that,” Battier says. “My job is not to keep him from scoring points but to make him as inefficient as possible.” The court doesn’t have little squares all over it to tell him what percentage Bryant is likely to shoot from any given spot, but it might as well.

The reason the Rockets insist that Battier guard Bryant is his gift for encouraging him into his zones of lowest efficiency. The effect of doing this is astonishing: Bryant doesn’t merely help his team less when Battier guards him than when someone else does. When Bryant is in the game and Battier is on him, the Lakers’ offense is worse than if the N.B.A.’s best player had taken the night off. “The Lakers’ offense should obviously be better with Kobe in,” Morey says. “But if Shane is on him, it isn’t.” A player whom Morey describes as “a marginal N.B.A. athlete” not only guards one of the greatest — and smartest — offensive threats ever to play the game. He renders him a detriment to his team.

[Kedsy]

We need our big guys to defend without fouling. We need them to hedge, rotate, help and establish position without fouling because it's better to make a big guy miss a 4 footer than to give him a 3 point play. It's better to make someone hit a tough shot than to bail them out. And big guys play less cautiously when they are not in foul trouble. Duke's goal is to make the other team inefficient, rather than to make them hit free throws. With our big guys doing all these things well, and without fouling, our team concept kicks in and guys can gamble more and gets steals and force turnovers because they know the guys behind them will help. It has a multiplier effect.

Yeah, but if you're not Shane Battier (and who is, really?), there are good fouls and there are bad fouls. As long as our big guys primarily stick to "good" fouls, we'll be OK.

Part of the point is our big guys don't have to play less cautiously if they're in foul trouble (this is not to say they shouldn't play smart, though), because if they foul out we've got more where that came from.

That said, I agree our big guys shouldn't be just "a collection of fouls." But our depth of big players allows us to body up against other teams' bigs and to cut off the driving lane for other teams' quick guards, both without the fear that usually comes with picking up fouls. And that's worth something.

[MChambers]

Yeah, but if you're not Shane Battier (and who is, really?), there are good fouls and there are bad fouls. As long as our big guys primarily stick to "good" fouls, we'll be OK.

Part of the point is our big guys don't have to play less cautiously if they're in foul trouble (this is not to say they shouldn't play smart, though), because if they foul out we've got more where that came from.

That said, I agree our big guys shouldn't be just "a collection of fouls." But our depth of big players allows us to body up against other teams' bigs and to cut off the driving lane for other teams' quick guards, both without the fear that usually comes with picking up fouls. And that's worth something.

But Miles and Mason in particular need to cut down on the fouling. They're giving up bad fouls. So far, it hasn't really cost Duke, but it will in a close game or two, unless they learn the Battier way of defense.

[Kedsy]

But Miles and Mason in particular need to cut down on the fouling. They're giving up bad fouls. So far, it hasn't really cost Duke, but it will in a close game or two, unless they learn the Battier way of defense.

You won't get an argument from me on this. I hate bad fouls. Although I don't think they have to become Battier to accomplish it. They just have to play smart.

[Devilsfan]

With Zoub, M1, M2, and Lance we have 20 fouls. Singler can play down low also. Kelly can possibly give someone a breather if the games not too close. I see him as a more skilled less clumsy sophomore Zoub. I love our perimeter with more help on the way next year. The only thing we lose is pretty important, the brains of a Scheyer. It must be in his genes. That young man is an extremely smart bb player!

[Jumbo]

I fervently hope you'll not be shocked, for 2 reasons:

(1) RK, who maybe didn't look "ready" at first, more recently has persuaded me and others that it was just a matter of adjustment, and he is ready, with some real skills that add actual value, more than just giving someone a breather. I don't mean to imply that it's a matter of RK's "deserving" to "take" minutes from big X or Y; rather, it's quite straightforward: he can play, and so should.

(2) The larger issue of having a 9-man rotation. Now we all know this doesn't mean 9 guys averaging 22 min each. We know the "3 S's" are gonna play 35 mpg each in big games. Without meaning to revive the irritating [to some] argument re main guys being worn out at season's end, I see no reason, given DD's ability to play substantial perimeter minutes, and RK's value in shorter stints, that any of the 3 S's should have to play 40 minutes very much at all. [I got no objection to any of the 3 playing 40 if he's on fire in a particular game. But not repeatedly.]

I'm not ready to jump fully on board with this idea just yet. When someone receives 10+ minutes in a college game, that's a lot of time. Kelly played nicely against Gonzaga, and he's surely improving. But he looked uncomfortable against UConn, and there will be some matchups in which he struggles. Add to the fact that he's not a perimeter player (where Duke is shallow off the bench), Duke's four other legit bigs, and the importance of developing Mason Plumlee, due to his superior upside, and I won't be shocked/disappointed if there are certain games where Kelly doesn't get a lot of PT. I look at him as a situational player, someone who can help quite a bit against the right opponent, or if the offense is bogged down. Other times, he won't be needed, which is fine. What a luxury to have!

[MChambers]

You won't get an argument from me on this. I hate bad fouls. Although I don't think they have to become Battier to accomplish it. They just have to play smart.

By the "Battier way", I just meant smart, position oriented defense. I'd be surprised to ever again see as good a defensive player as Battier.

So we agree.

[gumbomoop]

I'm not ready to jump fully on board with this idea just yet. When someone receives 10+ minutes in a college game, that's a lot of time. Kelly played nicely against Gonzaga, and he's surely improving. But he looked uncomfortable against UConn, and there will be some matchups in which he struggles. Add to the fact that he's not a perimeter player (where Duke is shallow off the bench), Duke's four other legit bigs, and the importance of developing Mason Plumlee, due to his superior upside, and I won't be shocked/disappointed if there are certain games where Kelly doesn't get a lot of PT. I look at him as a situational player, someone who can help quite a bit against the right opponent, or if the offense is bogged down. Other times, he won't be needed, which is fine. What a luxury to have!

Yes, I concede that RK is unlikely to move up in the rotation. I'm fully on board with the view that MP2 will show his considerable stuff as the season progresses. So, vaguely like Z, RK is a situational player, and his "situations" are likely rather more limited than Z's. It's also possible Z is more than situational, and RK's the only guy that fits that bill. Even so, I'm hopeful that his skills will push K to see situations where RK is the right sub for a few minutes.

So, even if he doesn't average 10 mpg, if he slides to 6 or 7, that's ok with me, for that simply means he's not quite valuable enough for more. But if our 9th guy gets 6-10 a game, and he helps - as he will; otherwise he'd get zilch - yes, what a luxury!

Jeez, it's 4:45 on Christmas eve, I got more wood to get in for a toasty fire, and I'm nitpicking about a bloody 9-man rotation. I'm an idiot. And I have suspicions about a bunch of you....... Happy holidays!!

[hq2]

I think it's going to depend on the team they're playing and the overall situation. If the other team has a (probably backup) 3 on the court who isn't much of an offensive threat, and they need for Singler to get some sit-down time, then RK may get the nod. However, I don't see him playing that much against good 3s, especially quicker players who can put it on the floor and score. In those situations, Lance is probably going to get the nod.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Nothing we don't know, but it's the best source you can get.


I'm not saying we're this perfect machine, but we're anxious to start," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewskihttp://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/2_bing.gif (http://dukebasketballreport.com/forums/#) said. "And the nine kids we have that are going to play are healthy enough to play. We have bruises and knees and all that kind of stuff, but when you have nine guys that can play and they have great attitudes and they're hungry to play, then it's time to get going.

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/college_basketball/story/6722370/