The teams are now WELL CONNECTED

[camion]

We're talking Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm) here. The ratings may be incomprehensible, silly, just plain wrong, but at least they're UNBIASED.

Duke is ranked 2 with an SOS of 26. :)

Rankings of our opponents so far are: 222, 73, 53, 162, 66, 19, 29, 33.
Not exactly a murder's row, but perhaps a murderer's second row.

Gardner Webb is ranked 312, 90 spots below the the weakest opponent so far.

Gonzaga is ranked 41.

[mr. synellinden]

We're talking Sagarin (http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cbsend.htm) here. The ratings may be incomprehensible, silly, just plain wrong, but at least they're UNBIASED.

Duke is ranked 2 with an SOS of 26. :)

Rankings of our opponents so far are: 222, 73, 53, 162, 66, 19, 29, 33.
Not exactly a murder's row, but perhaps a murderer's second row.

Gardner Webb is ranked 312, 90 spots below the the weakest opponent so far.

Gonzaga is ranked 41.

And here is Ken Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/rate.php):

Duke is #3 behind Texas and Kansas. I don't remember the exact stat, but a very high percentage of final four and national championship teams are ranked in the top 20 in both Adj. Off. efficiency and Adj. Def. efficiency. Duke is #3 and #16, respectively.

[Kedsy]

Duke is ranked 2 with an SOS of 26.

And Syracuse is #1. The Le Moyne Dolphins must be so proud.

[MChambers]

And here is Ken Pomeroy (http://kenpom.com/rate.php):

Duke is #3 behind Texas and Kansas. I don't remember the exact stat, but a very high percentage of final four and national championship teams are ranked in the top 20 in both Adj. Off. efficiency and Adj. Def. efficiency. Duke is #3 and #16, respectively.

I don't want to make very much of this, but Andre Dawkins is ranked #1 in offensive efficiency in the entire nation. That's what shooting over 50% on three-pointers will do for you, along without making many turnovers.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Scroll to the bottom. Of course, how the stats show that Scheyer is a role player is beyond me.

[darthur]

I don't want to make very much of this, but Andre Dawkins is ranked #1 in offensive efficiency in the entire nation. That's what shooting over 50% on three-pointers will do for you, along without making many turnovers.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Scroll to the bottom. Of course, how the stats show that Scheyer is a role player is beyond me.

I spent a while puzzling over that too. I think it's entirely based on the percentage of possessions used stat.

[hurleyfor3]

... and so the dorks celebrated. Not by popping champagne, though. More likely by reciting pi, or drawing a circuit diagram, or integrating some sort of trigonometric function over spherical coordinates. Or maybe by discovering a new Mersenne prime (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11644&highlight=mersenne).

[stickdog]

I don't want to make very much of this, but Andre Dawkins is ranked #1 in offensive efficiency in the entire nation. That's what shooting over 50% on three-pointers will do for you, along without making many turnovers.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Scroll to the bottom. Of course, how the stats show that Scheyer is a role player is beyond me.

Note that Zoubek's offensive rebounding percentage is 29.1. He doesn't qualify to lead the NCAA because he has not played 40% of Duke's minutes so far this season (only 38.8%). But if he did qualify, he would be leading the entire NCAA in this statistic by a wide margin (http://www.kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=ORPct) (the leader's percentage is 23.4).

Also, Jon Scheyer's offensive rating and turnover rate are both 10th in the NCAA.

[COYS]

I don't want to make very much of this, but Andre Dawkins is ranked #1 in offensive efficiency in the entire nation. That's what shooting over 50% on three-pointers will do for you, along without making many turnovers.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

Scroll to the bottom. Of course, how the stats show that Scheyer is a role player is beyond me.

I had thought his usage rate would increase more than it has. However, he is the 10th most efficient offensive player in the country . . . which is crazy considering he still hasn't gotten on a tear with his jumper, yet. I think this just shows we need the ball in Scheyer's hands as much as possible.

[MChambers]

... and so the dorks celebrated. Not by popping champagne, though. More likely by reciting pi, or drawing a circuit diagram, or integrating some sort of trigonometric function over spherical coordinates. Or maybe by discovering a new Mersenne prime (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11644&highlight=mersenne).

I spent some time thinking about what we might learn about the nature of the universe, from the Large Hadron Collider:

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2010/01/hadron-collider-201001

Then I decided Duke basketball was more important.

[MChambers]

Note that Zoubek's offensive rebounding percentage is 29.1. He doesn't qualify to lead the NCAA because he has not played 40% of Duke's minutes so far this season (only 38.8%). But if he did qualify, he would be leading the entire NCAA in this statistic by a wide margin (http://www.kenpom.com/leaders.php?c=ORPct) (the leader's percentage is 23.4).


Zoubs is committing fouls at about 10 per 40 minutes. That's got to be one of the worst in the NCAA.

[fogey]

I spent some time thinking about what we might learn about the nature of the universe, from the Large Hadron Collider:

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2010/01/hadron-collider-201001

Then I decided Duke basketball was more important.

Why not enjoy the best of both worlds? Fellow Dukie Mike Johnson (Trinity '99) founded the original Super Collide blog in honor of the Large Hadron Collider. Super Collide (www.supercollide.com) began on the day the LHC was turned on and takes its name from that grand experiment. Mike, by the way, played for the Scottish National BB team while attending the University of Edinburg during his semester abroad as a Duke undergrad.

[madscavenger]

.....Fellow Dukie Mike Johnson (Trinity '99) founded the original Super Collide blog in honor of the Large Hadron Collider. Super Collide (www.supercollide.com) began on the day the LHC was turned on and takes its name from that grand experiment.....

e.g. The Physics of Whipped Cream

www.science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/25apr_cvx2.htm?lis%20t35479

Need your hoops jones? Try dunking a handful of whipped cream.

[J_C_Steel]

Sagarin ratings for college basketball teams in December are as useful as ESPN's Power Rankings for the NFL. Most teams have played a cupcake-heavy schedule to this point, rendering most of the data unreliable or at least of limited use.

I'm very curious about the ACC this season. Seems that Georgia Tech could round into a good team, UNC will be young but quite capable, Clemson could be dangerous but lacks will and heart, and then everyone else will be scraping and clawing and defending home turf.

[JasonEvans]

KenPom projects that Duke will go 27-4 on the season with an ACC record of 14-2. Here is how he projects the rest of the conference:


Team Conf All
Duke 14-2 27-4
Clem 10-6 22-8
Miami 9-7 23-7
GaT 9-7 22-8
FSU 9-7 21-9
UNC 8-8 19-12
Wake 8-8 17-11
Mary 8-8 18-12
NCSU 6-10 19-12
VaT 5-11 18-12
BC 5-11 15-15
Virg 4-12 13-16

--Jason "as far as I am concerned, no need to play the games... lets just accept these results and move on to the post-season ;) " Evans

[J_C_Steel]

KenPom projects that Duke will go 27-4 on the season with an ACC record of 14-2. Here is how he projects the rest of the conference:


Team Conf All
Duke 14-2 27-4
Clem 10-6 22-8
Miami 9-7 23-7
GaT 9-7 22-8
FSU 9-7 21-9
UNC 8-8 19-12
Wake 8-8 17-11
Mary 8-8 18-12
NCSU 6-10 19-12
VaT 5-11 18-12
BC 5-11 15-15
Virg 4-12 13-16

--Jason "as far as I am concerned, no need to play the games... lets just accept these results and move on to the post-season ;) " Evans

I'm with you, Jason. I'll take that any day.

[Klemnop]

KenPom projects that Duke will go 27-4 on the season with an ACC record of 14-2. Here is how he projects the rest of the conference:


Team Conf All
Duke 14-2 27-4
Clem 10-6 22-8
Miami 9-7 23-7
GaT 9-7 22-8
FSU 9-7 21-9
UNC 8-8 19-12
Wake 8-8 17-11
Mary 8-8 18-12
NCSU 6-10 19-12
VaT 5-11 18-12
BC 5-11 15-15
Virg 4-12 13-16

--Jason "as far as I am concerned, no need to play the games... lets just accept these results and move on to the post-season ;) " Evans

Count me in!

[Kedsy]

KenPom projects that Duke will go 27-4 on the season with an ACC record of 14-2. Here is how he projects the rest of the conference:


Team Conf All
Duke 14-2 27-4
Clem 10-6 22-8
Miami 9-7 23-7
GaT 9-7 22-8
FSU 9-7 21-9
UNC 8-8 19-12
Wake 8-8 17-11
Mary 8-8 18-12
NCSU 6-10 19-12
VaT 5-11 18-12
BC 5-11 15-15
Virg 4-12 13-16

--Jason "as far as I am concerned, no need to play the games... lets just accept these results and move on to the post-season ;) " Evans


Does UNC even get a bid?

[Troublemaker]

Clemson 2nd?

A pressing team like Clemson can become overrated in computer rankings like Pomeroy's early in the season. In essence, because Clemson presses, you have a tendency to beat bad teams by greater margins than other good teams beat bad teams, if that makes sense, because of all the turnovers and easy points off turnovers that you can force. Statistically, Clemson has "shown well" against bad teams. Against good teams, you haven't looked all that great. So yeah, I would agree with you that Clemson isn't really the second best team in the ACC, and the stats will begin to reflect that once Clemson plays ACC games.

Then again, maybe Pomeroy's ratings are right. You never know.

[Klemnop]

In essence, because Clemson presses, you have a tendency to beat bad teams by greater margins than other good teams beat bad teams, if that makes sense, because of all the turnovers and easy points off turnovers that you can force.

I guess it would be bad form to use last year's Duke game in Littlejohn as an example of this phenomenon?

[superdave]

Sagarin ratings for college basketball teams in December are as useful as ESPN's Power Rankings for the NFL. Most teams have played a cupcake-heavy schedule to this point, rendering most of the data unreliable or at least of limited use.

I think Duke was a top 6-7 team in RPI ratings the past two years heading into the NCAA's. So we'd played 30 games on the season and it was still off significantly. In other words, I wouldnt get too worked up on these things.

[Troublemaker]

I guess it would be bad form to use last year's Duke game in Littlejohn as an example of this phenomenon?

Haha, not at all. Duke was definitely a "bad team" that night.

[hughgs]

I think Duke was a top 6-7 team in RPI ratings the past two years heading into the NCAA's. So we'd played 30 games on the season and it was still off significantly. In other words, I wouldnt get too worked up on these things.

Wait, our ability in the NCAA tournament is directly correlated with our national ranking? I thought that winning/losing in the tournament was about team match-ups, not a team's national ranking.

[JasonEvans]

Does UNC even get a bid?

Lets pretend for a second that Ken's projection of 8-8, 19-12 is accurate.

Obviously , Carolina getting a bid would depends upon much more than their record. I mean, did they go 8-8 in the ACC by winning their first 8 and losing their last 8? Who else (besides MSU) do they have good wins against in their 19 wins? Do they have any awful losses in their 12 losses?

They'd have to have at least one fairly bad loss because they currently have 2 non-conf losses and Ken projects them with 4. They have the game with Texas left (and Ken gives them only a 5% chance of winning that game), but Ken is projecting that they will lose one of the following games-- Marshall, Rutgers, Albany, or at Charleston.

Clearly, at 8-8 and 19-12, they would be near the bubble. They will have a strong SOS in all likelyhood because of the non-conf games with Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky, Mich State, and Texas. That will help a lot in the eyes of the selection committee. Being the defending national champ would help too.

I think they would likely be in with 19 wins and a .500 record in the ACC. A first round win in the ACC tourney would almost certainly cement their bid. UNC wins 20 games and they are a lock. Even with a first-round loss, I think Carolina would have a very compelling case to make.

--Jason "wow, does this ever qualify as baseless speculation!!" Evans