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Jumbo
12-01-2009, 01:25 AM
Well, it's officially December. Hard to believe the year is almost over, and hard to believe we're already into Phase II of the season. We already wrapped up Phase I (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=336623&postcount=16) which, despite some adversity, went about as well as anyone could have hoped. And now it's on to the next stage, which we'll define as the Big Ten/ACC Challenge game at Wisconsin through the end of the year -- the 12/31 game against Penn. Here's what I'll be watching over the next month.

1) Can Duke Stay Healthy?
I told you all -- this stays up top. Every. Single. Phase.

2) Mason's Back! What does that mean for him?
Before the season, everything I heard from a variety of sources pointed to Mason Plumlee being one of Duke's four best players, starting and playing at least 25 mpg. Obviously, he's not going to step right into that role against Wisconsin. But can he get there in a little under three weeks, vs. Gonzaga at MSG?

It will be interesting to see whether he's rusty physically, but even more interesting to watch whether he's comfortable mentally. Remember, he's a freshman, and he missed some key practice time. It's hard to think his development won't be slower than anticipated.

Still, I think and hope that by the end of this phase, he'll be at the point I anticipated before the season. He has the ability to help the team in so many ways -- as a rebounder/shotblocker, as a extra ball-handler, as a high-post passer and, potentially, as the best scoring threat outside of our three perimeter starters. Ideally, by the end of this phase he'll be facing up and creating for himself and others, finishing those offensive boards we've failed to convert with dunks and maybe even posting and scoring a bit. Are these expectations high? Yes, but they're fair, especially since the most hype about Mason has come from his teammates and coaches.

3) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the other bigs?
Well, obviously it means fewer minutes for some guys. I think, eventually, it means Lance Thomas will come off the bench as a defensive stopper. Hopefully it means added confidence for Miles. But I also think he'll make things easier for all the other bigs, because he'll be able to feed Zoubek and Miles in the post from the elbow, be able to play 5 with Lance at 4 in a quicker lineup and generally command enough attention to free up the other big guys.

4) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the perimeter guys?
I think it might actually mean more rest. One of the reasons why Scheyer, Singler and Smith have had to play so much is that they are pretty much the only guys who can initiate offense. Dawkins can score, but he's a finisher -- from deep. Miles and Zoubs can finish inside. But Plumlee can do that and create for others. So, K might feel a bit more comfortable taking Kyle out, for instance, with Mason in the game. The other thing Mason's presence might allow is for K to experiment a bit with Thomas at the 3, deepening Duke's perimeter. I don't expect to see it often, but in a game where Dawkins might struggle guarding an opposing 3, it's possible to play Thomas and Mason at the two forward spots with Singler out and not completely fall apart on offense. Clearly, Thomas can guard small forwards, so that's just a little something extra to watch.

5) Will the offense develop to match the defense?
Something I've noticed in recent years is that Duke's D starts out better than its offense. I think part of that can be attributed to effort -- Duke plays so hard every game, and I'm not sure every team can say that in November. And that obviously manifests itself most on defense. But Duke's offense has room to improve, and the pieces to make that happen. I'd like to see more of the hi-lo action from the preseason now that Mason is back. I'd like to see the guys keep moving and screening and sharing the ball -- the bigs, in particular, are much better when they get some early touches. And I'd like to see Nolan drive and kick better -- as well as Scheyer and Singler -- rather than drive and shoot fadeaways.

6) Will Duke be able to run more and get easier baskets?
I think so. Even without Mason, we played almost all man-to-man, with pretty good pressure. Now with Mason in the lineup, with the ability to guard away from the basket, disrupt ball screens and provide quick help/shotblocking inside, we can afford to extend the D even more. Hopefully, that will result in more steals, which in turn should lead to more fast break buckets. But Duke should also be able to run off boards, especially with Miles and Mason in together. I think Scheyer has already shown that he'll push the tempo when he can, and with an extra running mate, I think that will happen more often than we've seen so far.

7) Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?
Of Duke's statistics, this is probably the most concerning -- the team's FTA/FGA is too low. Once again, this is another area where another active, 6'10" guy will help. So will playing some games against weaker teams, like Gardner-Webb. But I'm looking at Nolan Smith here and, even more, Kyle Singler. Scheyer has maintained his ability to draw contact, but Smith is attacking and not getting to the line, while Singler is hardly getting to the rim at all. Singler needs to take an extra dribble, and use his strength and savvy inside to get some easy baskets at the line and hopefully get the other team in foul trouble. That would be a great way to get himself going early. Speaking of which ...

8) Will Singler pick up his scoring after off-games at MSG?
I'm sure we all think he will. He's too good a shooter to miss open jumpers, too good a player not to make better moves to free himself off the dribble. But one other suggestion that I brought up in the preseason is for Duke to invert the offense more often. Let Kyle post up the guy guarding him, especially given the number of teams that use 3-guard lineups. He has legit post moves, size and a nice touch inside. Post him a bit. Let him vary his game.

9) Can Andre Dawkins develop into more than a spot-up shooter?
Don't get me wrong -- he's helping this team enormously just through his ability to spread the floor and knock down open threes. But his defense can improve -- his lateral quickness might not be at a superior level, but he has a good vertical, is pretty strong and has good speed. The question really becomes how well he can adjust to coaching at that end, so that he can do more than hold his own. And right now, his ball-handling doesn't seem to be a strength -- if he can get a bit more comfortable with the ball in the open floor, it would take a lot of pressure off the other perimeter players.

10) What happens to Ryan Kelly?
I think with Mason Plumlee back, he'll fall out of the rotation against good teams. There's just not enough room to play five bigs if everyone is healthy and not in foul trouble. Kelly has shown some good signs, but clearly needs to get much stronger. I hope he'll be able to help when needed, but right now, I can't imagine him playing over the Plumlee brothers, Thomas or Zoubek.

11) Can Scheyer and Smith continue to develop harmony between the need to score and the need to set up the offense?
Nolan is in attack mode -- finally -- and it's great. But as I mentioned above, he has to kick when he has an open teammate. And Scheyer is generally scoring well, but he has a heavy burden in running the offense and Duke will need him to score against good teams. So it would be great to see Duke continue to run sets where Nolan is asked to set up Scheyer for shots, in addition to the standard offense. Basically, we need to make sure all three perimeter guys are getting double-figure shot attempts each game. We need an equal-opportunity perimeter attack, hopefully aided by some solid inside scoring.

12) Can the team build on the confidence/collective ego they established at MSG and play as if they truly believe they are the best team in the country?
That's the next step. It's great to hear the guys talk about winning a national championship, and I'm convinced they truly believe they can do it. That means rising to a new level of mental toughness, looking to break an opponent's will, going on vintage Duke runs, taking the court as if they own it. They believe in each other; the chemistry is great. Now it's time to move from just trying to beat the other team to attempting to destroy them -- right from the opening tip.

Obviously, there are more issues to consider, and I probably listed too many as is. But how well Duke answers these questions in Phase II will tell us a lot heading into ACC season.

sagegrouse
12-01-2009, 09:56 AM
Thanks again, Jumbo.

Your comments here and in the other thread about "edginess" spoke volumes. You expect it from a veteran team, and now we are seeing it.

For the next few games and into the beginning of the ACC schedule, I think all the big guys are going to play plenty of minutes, with the "hot hand" and the foul situation determining PT on a game-by-game basis. Kelly will have to show that he can play spell Singler at the wing to get comparable time, but I don't think he is going to just sit.

sagegrouse

DukieInBrasil
12-01-2009, 09:57 AM
no quibbles with Jumboīs analysis, these Phase posts always seem to be pretty spot-on.
I hope that Masonīs return brings many good things. As kind of a sub-set to what happens to the bigs?, I would like to add: Will Z continue to be a rebounding machine? How does the dynamic in the froncourt change with Mason? Hopefully for the better. I can see Miles being a bit more solid against good teams; he was pretty mediocre at MSG.
As we began this season I was super-pumped and was hoping for us to bring home 3 pieces of hardware, and, we got the first one. Thatīs an important piece of the championship puzzle, gaining the confidence and knowledge that you can beat a good team in a championship game. Thereīs a long time yet and weīll evolve and other teams will evolve, but i mos def feel that the ACC Tourney trophy is within our reach.

thewiseben
12-01-2009, 10:01 AM
As a relative n00b to this board, I'm new to, but already a huge fan of, Jumbo's Phase posts.

My only question is about the prospects for Ryan Kelly this year. What little I've sen of him on the court I like. Seems like a high-IQ player who would be useful in Hi-Lo situations. With his excellent 3 point skills, would it be possible for him to spell Singler at the SF position occasionally? I know he'd have trouble pressuring a quick SF, but it seems like in a big lineup, he could be pretty useful.

Just my $.02

JasonEvans
12-01-2009, 10:24 AM
I hate to even bring it up, but...

Phase II of the season is where we will find out about the academic progress of the players. It is rare, but not unheard of, for a Duke player -- especially a freshman adjusting to college -- to get behind and suddenly find that his season ends in December.

While I doubt this is any issue for the upperclassmen, I hope the freshmen know that you need to buckle down this time of year and take care of business off the court too.

--Jason "it has been a while since we lost someone to academics-- perhaps since the 90s" Evans

jv001
12-01-2009, 10:25 AM
December games: Good observations Jumbo as usual.
Jumbo touched on this; Hi-Lo offense..good way to get to the foul line and I would like to see more of it. With Mason, Miles, Ryan & Zoubs there is no reason this should not work.
Kyle getting back on stride. Post up his man(guard) or Coach K running some set plays against Wisc. to get him going again.
I don't see Mason breaking the starting lineup soon. But by ACC time, I expect to see him in the starting lineup just as Jumbo stated. No knock on Lance as he played great against Uconn.
Kelly mins will be determined in practice. He will have to show Coach K he belongs in the rotation. If he does, that could mean some rest for Kyle.
Andre Dawkins can flat out shoot the ball. But he seems uncomfortable handling the ball. Looks like a matter of confidence and that will be corrected over time. I'm looking for the first time Andre gets the ball on the fast break and slams it home.
This team believes in itself and seems to really get along well. They have an edge about them. No backing down. Let's beat the Badgers. Go Duke!

BlueintheFace
12-01-2009, 10:41 AM
A LOT is being made of Mason's abilities and skills. I really hope Jumbo is right...

superdave
12-01-2009, 11:02 AM
We may not get as many fast break opportunities as I would like this year, but I think this team's personnel can create easy buckets inside for our big guys.

Jumbo's point about Kyle posting up is a great one. Kyle should post up smaller 3's every chance he gets. Often he will be able to score over top of that smaler player, or command a double team and find Miles/Mason/Brian for an easy score.

Mason ought to also be able to use post moves as well and quickness to either score over the top, get to to the line or find his brother for a dunk. I do think a significant amount of our offense needs to come from this to keep team's more honest than they have been in the past against Duke. We need to commit to post scoring.

Currently, we have Nolan and Kyle taking 8-10 footers more often than going one dribble further into the lane. That might be way Brian and Miles have found more offensive rebounds than normal. But it sure would be nice to get some dunks/layups and trips to the foul lines on a consistent basis.

NSDukeFan
12-01-2009, 11:07 AM
I also hope Mason lives up to expectations and gives us another solid performer in the frontcourt and eventually becomes our fourth best player.
I am also curious to see if we can also extend our D a bit and create a few more turnovers. If we can get easy baskets off steals, off offensive rebounds and off post play, we could be very effective, even when we have a poor shooting night. So far, so good, I hope we continue our improvement.

Wander
12-01-2009, 11:07 AM
7) Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?


Thanks for bringing this up. Other than having a thin backcourt, this is by far our biggest weakness right now. I have no idea why you say that Scheyer is doing a good job getting to the line and Smith isn't considering that in the past four games Smith has shot 4, 4, 2, and 6 FTs while Scheyer has shot 4, 4, 3, and 6 FTs, but it is a concern overall. And it's a shame because we're such a good free throw shooting team - I think this is an overrated team stat in general, but still, we're not taking advantage of one our team strengths by not getting to the line often. Consider that UConn and ASU both shot more free throws than Duke, even including the foul-on-purpose stuff at the end of those games (and we didn't even shoot more FTs than Radford).

I suppose it's not the worst weakness in the world to have, but I'd like to see us get better.

sagegrouse
12-01-2009, 11:18 AM
A LOT is being made of Mason's abilities and skills. I really hope Jumbo is right...

I believe Mason is the real deal. But I don't expect him to be a scoring machine until he gets used to the speed and physicality of the college game, which may take a few weeks.

I also expect Miles to develop an offensive game that would take advantage of his skills and court vision.

I am also hopeful about Zoubs and Lance, but in doing so I am perilously close to joining the ranks of the drill instructors and Catholic priests, the only people on earth who believe in the perfectability of mankind.;)

sagegrouse

Saratoga2
12-01-2009, 11:28 AM
As far as staying healthy in all ways, I would think that particularly applies to Scheyer, Smith and Singler and probably to Dawkins as well, since we have a shortage or guard talent. We could sustain some loss to our bigs since we really have 4 to play 2 positions with two who should be able to provide backup, if not more.

I think the verdict is out on Mason being back, other than to note we have a high potential big to add to our already decent front court. If he is a real top notch talent as the players seem to think, then Duke may rise in the rankings to top 4.

The development of our offense will come with Singler getting more comfortable in his new role and possibly with Mason and Miles showing improvement around the basket. Nolan and Scheyer will continue to add scoring dimensions and will only improve. Dawkins is the wild card. If he can continue to score and be efficient, our offense will be capable of putting up 80 ppg against most teams. Enough to win with our defense. I think it is also imperative to give the guys more rest so we don't have end of game lapses, as in our UCONN match. Finally, Kelly is bound to improve this season and could get his shot going. A 6'10" 3 point shooter is difficult to match up with, especially when there are so many other ways for us to score.

I don't see our team as a running team this year. We really can't pressure the ball very well and I am not sure we want to exhaust our guards trying to do so. Other than that way of creating turnovers, we have our mature team who will play the lanes and get a few opportunities, and maybe the bigs can force a few turnovers with their length and athleticism. Nolan is really the only really quick guy who can run the break with Singler, and the Plumlees trailing the play of easy putbacks.

Our bigs are most likely to draw fouls and get to the line. They had better practice their free throws. Good things from Thomas in the UCONN game. Nolan has shown a much more aggressive approach to his game and should also draw fouls. He is very capable of hitting his. Scheyer gets a few from his smart play and from having the ball in his hands at the end of games where we are leading. Singler is joe hustle out there and will draw some with that approach. I think we will be okay in that regard.

I am not worried about Singler. His offense will come as he adapts to his role and plays within himself. I think he has been pressing a little more and of course matching with Stanley Robinson was not an easy assignment.

I think Dawkins has a great deal more to offer this team. He is a freshman playing with other mature and excellent players. He is bound to defer to them early on but I think he can go to the basket, and play solid defense. By seasons end, he will have a lot more overall game.

Kelly has shown good aspects to his game already this year. We may have to use him to spell other players and to play more of a wing forward until he improves his strength. Mike Dunlevy comes to mind when looking at Kelly. Kellys a little taller and both are/were skinny when playing for Duke. Kelly can pass and shoot and seems to have an understanding of the game that some never get. He is ideal passing from the top of the post into our front court and can make people pay if they put a smaller man on him. True, he probably will not be able to be successful defensively against a really quick small forward.

I have no worries about Scheyer, Nolan and Singler playing in harmony. They will be very dangerous all year.

As far as winning the national championship, I wouldn't fall into the trap of making predictions. So far, and a bit surprisingly, they look like they really belong in the top ten. With Wisconcin and Gonzaga to play soon, the team will establish more of an identity. There will be losses this year, but as long as they play up to their early showing, they will be in the mix in the NCAAs.

feldspar
12-01-2009, 11:37 AM
I hate to even bring it up, but...

Phase II of the season is where we will find out about the academic progress of the players. It is rare, but not unheard of, for a Duke player -- especially a freshman adjusting to college -- to get behind and suddenly find that his season ends in December.

While I doubt this is any issue for the upperclassmen, I hope the freshmen know that you need to buckle down this time of year and take care of business off the court too.

--Jason "it has been a while since we lost someone to academics-- perhaps since the 90s" Evans

Last one I can remember was Ricky Price in late '97. Killed his senior year.

merry
12-01-2009, 11:45 AM
Last one I can remember was Ricky Price in late '97. Killed his senior year.

Andre Sweet. Would have been late 2000? He later transferred.

CDu
12-01-2009, 11:48 AM
I think Jumbo is spot on with many of these points, and I concur very much with the point that #1 will remain #1 all season. Especially with regard to the backcourt, we need to do our rain dances (or whatever it is people do for good fortune) to hope for our wings to stay healthy. I think that is especially true with Scheyer and Smith, though losing Singler or Dawkins would be really bad too.

I am hopeful that the return of Mason Plumlee adds an addiitonal spark to the team. He's big and athletic, and more skilled than his brother. Having him means that we should be able to have an athletic true big man on the floor at all times and that we'll have two athletic true bigs on the floor most of the time. This is something unheard of in my memory of Duke. We've often had athletic big men, but typically we've had one combined with an undersized post player or a slow/unathletic big man. Plumlee changes that.

I agree that it means we won't see Kelly against meaningful opponents. He was already relegated to foul trouble minutes in MSG, and that was before the return of Plumlee. Plumlee will eliminate the meaningful minutes for Czyz altogether and basically do the same to Kelly. But given that Kelly is still developing physically, that's probably not a bad thing for now. I'm very hopeful for Kelly to have an expanded role as an impact player next year, but for this season we have (for once) PLENTY of big men available and can afford to let him develop in practice and in the weight room.

As for the free throw issue, I generally agree. Although I wouldn't single out Smith as compared to Scheyer, since the two have nearly identical FTA rates in the four games they've played (Scheyer has 17 attempts in 134 minutes, Smith has 16 attempts in 139 minutes). It will be interesting to follow Singler. Will he struggle to create fouls off the dribble against quicker defenders? Will the offense create more post-up opportunities?

On a similar vein, the bigs are drawing fouls, though not at the same rate that they're administering fouls. It would help if that changed as well. We need aggressive play from the bigs to draw fouls, but it would help if they could avoid committing so many. Granted, with Plumlee returning, foul trouble shouldn't be an issue for the post guys moving forward. But we don't want to give away free points late in halves because we're over the limit.

JasonEvans
12-01-2009, 11:55 AM
Andre Sweet. Would have been late 2000? He later transferred.

Joe Cook and Phil Henderson, IIRC, were also victims of academic problems early in their careers.

I can't recall any this decade though, which is a very good thing.

Another really bad thing worth noting that sometimes happens around December is the mid-season transfer. Duke has seen a few of these in recent years but the freshmen and even Olek have been getting some minutes so far this season so I suspect we will not have to worry about this at all this year.

--Jason "aren't I a Debbie Downer today?" Evans

Kedsy
12-01-2009, 11:57 AM
I don't see our team as a running team this year. We really can't pressure the ball very well and I am not sure we want to exhaust our guards trying to do so. Other than that way of creating turnovers, we have our mature team who will play the lanes and get a few opportunities, and maybe the bigs can force a few turnovers with their length and athleticism. Nolan is really the only really quick guy who can run the break with Singler, and the Plumlees trailing the play of easy putbacks.

I don't know if Duke will be more of a running team this year, but IMO they certainly have the goods to do it. You don't need to be really quick to run the break, you just need above-average speed (which is very different from quickness), and from what I've seen we have Nolan, Kyle, Andre, Jon, Miles, Lance, and Mason who can fit that bill (Olek, too, if he ever plays).

While our break in the past has largely been fed by forcing turnovers, the traditional way to fast break is off of defensive rebounds. If the wings are confident that the bigs will corral the rebound, then one or two of them can release on the shot and a quick outlet will initiate the break. Personally, I see this Duke team as more capable of being a running team than many of our recent editions.

Finally, when I play (which is obviously at a zillion times lower level than these guys), participating in a half court offense which includes constant moving and cutting and/or pushing and banging is significantly more exhausting than running in a straight line on a full court break. I don't entirely buy the we-shouldn't-run-because-our-guards-will-get-too-tired argument.

Just my opinion, of course.

CDu
12-01-2009, 12:07 PM
Kelly has shown good aspects to his game already this year. We may have to use him to spell other players and to play more of a wing forward until he improves his strength. Mike Dunlevy comes to mind when looking at Kelly. Kellys a little taller and both are/were skinny when playing for Duke. Kelly can pass and shoot and seems to have an understanding of the game that some never get. He is ideal passing from the top of the post into our front court and can make people pay if they put a smaller man on him. True, he probably will not be able to be successful defensively against a really quick small forward.

Posters have made this comparison in the past, and I really don't see it at all. Dunleavy was a guard who happened to grow to be a tall guard when he came to college. Kelly is a big who happens to have great shooting range and passing skills. Kelly isn't nearly as good off the dribble, nor is he as athletic as Dunleavy. Dunleavy was a 2/3 who grew tall enough to play the 4 (albeit not his strong suit). Kelly is a very skilled 4/5 who is just too thin right now to play the 5.

I really think more of Shav Randolph when I see Kelly. And I don't mean that in any way to disparage Kelly or Shav. I just think their skill sets are much more similar than Kelly and Dunleavy. There are still differences, obviously (I think Kelly is a better passer and has a more diverse scoring skillset, while Shav was a bit stronger physically), but the differences are smaller than the differences between Dunleavy and Kelly.

I think Kelly will ultimately be a very good player for Duke. But I think it'll be at the 4/5 spot when he fills out. I think he'll join the Plumlees to form a VERY formidable and versatile frontline for (hopefully) the next few years.

flyingdutchdevil
12-01-2009, 12:09 PM
Finally, when I play (which is obviously at a zillion times lower level than these guys), participating in a half court offense which includes constant moving and cutting and/or pushing and banging is significantly more exhausting than running in a straight line on a full court break. I don't entirely buy the we-shouldn't-run-because-our-guards-will-get-too-tired argument.

Just my opinion, of course.

When I play, which is also at a "zillion times lower level", I am usually a 5 (being 6'3" always makes you a 5 in pick up...). While pushing and banging around is ridiculously tiring for me, it's great for the guards - they do less banging, especially on offense, and the guards don't burn themselves out.

This, I see, is very good for Duke. We have 3-4 capable post players (soon to be 4-5) who like to bang around (I need to stop calling it that...). Our guards, including Singler, haven't posted as much as they did last year. Playing offense in the halfcourt is great for guards - they really don't burn themselves out as much as running. From a fatigue standpoint, it's the guards that I'm worried about. I feel that the way we've play offense is great for keeping guards fresh.

MChambers
12-01-2009, 12:13 PM
As for the free throw issue, I generally agree. Although I wouldn't single out Smith as compared to Scheyer, since the two have nearly identical FTA rates in the four games they've played (Scheyer has 17 attempts in 134 minutes, Smith has 16 attempts in 139 minutes). It will be interesting to follow Singler. Will he struggle to create fouls off the dribble against quicker defenders? Will the offense create more post-up opportunities?

On a similar vein, the bigs are drawing fouls, though not at the same rate that they're administering fouls. It would help if that changed as well. We need aggressive play from the bigs to draw fouls, but it would help if they could avoid committing so many. Granted, with Plumlee returning, foul trouble shouldn't be an issue for the post guys moving forward. But we don't want to give away free points late in halves because we're over the limit.

Jumbo's analysis is great, and so is yours. As I've posted here before, I think the free throw disparity is a pretty significant weakness of this team, thus far. I hope Mason can help a little, by being slightly more of an offensive threat than the other bigs and by being a little less foul prone.

Miles also needs to cut down on the silly fouls and just play position defense, rather than gambling for steals in the post. Unfortunately, so far in his career, he hasn't been able to avoid fouling. Of course, I think I remember that Shelden got whistled a lot his first year, but he certainly improved markedly over the course of his career, so it can be done.

gumbomoop
12-01-2009, 12:15 PM
I am also hopeful about Zoubs and Lance, but in doing so I am perilously close to joining the ranks of the drill instructors and Catholic priests, the only people on earth who believe in the perfectability of mankind.;)

sagegrouse

I subscribe wholeheartedly to sg's hopefulness and concern re LT and Z. As one who has been constructively critical of both, I was certainly impressed with LT's game v. UConn, and Z's rebounding has been solid. My questions remain: (1) Will LT's fierce energy be [I]disciplined rather than chaotic? (2) With experience, has he become a bit more court-aware? So, was this a "one-game wonder" or has he finally learned how to be a rebounder? (3) Will both LT and Z remain stationary as screeners up top, or will their tendency to move and/or keep a shoulder or an elbow out too far result in foolish fouls? (4) Will Z continue his maddening habit of "settling himself" under the basket by bringing the ball down, thus courting steals, rather than going up just a few inches for a pretty easy basket? It seems that, because his footwork is still uncertain, he must "sense" that he needs to use a "rhythm dribble" to regain his balance. But it rarely works out well.

In the spirit of the OP, lots of questions remain. LT will play 18-22 mpg, and Z maybe 12-15. So their strengths have to work, and their flaws be minimized.

We don't - sg's hilarious hyperbole notwithstanding - need perfection from LT and Z. But clear improvement, absolutely.

CDu
12-01-2009, 12:18 PM
Miles also needs to cut down on the silly fouls and just play position defense, rather than gambling for steals in the post. Unfortunately, so far in his career, he hasn't been able to avoid fouling. Of course, I think I remember that Shelden got whistled a lot his first year, but he certainly improved markedly over the course of his career, so it can be done.

I am amazed at what Plumlee is capable of, but you're right. So many of his fouls are silly fouls due to not understanding positioning. If he can learn when to go for it and when to just hold his ground (he's a big strong guy, so holding ground should be manageable), he can become consistently an absolute force with his size and athleticism.

Your second point just illustrates how phenomenal Shelden Williams was defensively over the last two years of his career at Duke. The guy was a shot blocking machine, but he also managed to remain a huge presence on the boards and rarely fouled out. It is VERY difficult to be both a good positional defender/rebounder AND a good shot blocker, yet Williams was both.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 01:25 PM
Posters have made this comparison in the past, and I really don't see it at all. Dunleavy was a guard who happened to grow to be a tall guard when he came to college. Kelly is a big who happens to have great shooting range and passing skills. Kelly isn't nearly as good off the dribble, nor is he as athletic as Dunleavy. Dunleavy was a 2/3 who grew tall enough to play the 4 (albeit not his strong suit). Kelly is a very skilled 4/5 who is just too thin right now to play the 5.

I really think more of Shav Randolph when I see Kelly. And I don't mean that in any way to disparage Kelly or Shav. I just think their skill sets are much more similar than Kelly and Dunleavy. There are still differences, obviously (I think Kelly is a better passer and has a more diverse scoring skillset, while Shav was a bit stronger physically), but the differences are smaller than the differences between Dunleavy and Kelly.

I think Kelly will ultimately be a very good player for Duke. But I think it'll be at the 4/5 spot when he fills out. I think he'll join the Plumlees to form a VERY formidable and versatile frontline for (hopefully) the next few years.

Exactly. At this point, Kelly is neither quick nor strong. That becomes most problematic on defense, obviously. He just can't guard perimeter players at the moment and, while he can at least hold his own against some post players, there are 4 guys ahead of him there. He's not able to play the "3" nor is that where his future will be. Ryan needs time to get stronger, which will enable him to be a true inside/out weapon on offense and a presence on D. But comparing him to anyone like Dunleavy is silly -- Dunleavy was mobile, had terrific ball-handling skills and was an excellent shooter. Kelly is not a skilled ball-handler at the moment, is a deft passer for a guy his size and is a pretty good shooter for a 6'10" guy -- which is totally different from someone like Dunleavy.

Someone is always going to have to sit. Against good teams, with all our guys healthy, that's going to be Kelly and Czyz.

Indoor66
12-01-2009, 01:26 PM
I am looking forward to seeing both Plumlee's on the floor at the same time. I anticipate that they will be tremendous passing to each other - having played together, literally, all their lives. They know each other and what each can do and tends to do. This could be very exciting.

Saratoga2
12-01-2009, 05:07 PM
Exactly. At this point, Kelly is neither quick nor strong. That becomes most problematic on defense, obviously. He just can't guard perimeter players at the moment and, while he can at least hold his own against some post players, there are 4 guys ahead of him there. He's not able to play the "3" nor is that where his future will be. Ryan needs time to get stronger, which will enable him to be a true inside/out weapon on offense and a presence on D. But comparing him to anyone like Dunleavy is silly -- Dunleavy was mobile, had terrific ball-handling skills and was an excellent shooter. Kelly is not a skilled ball-handler at the moment, is a deft passer for a guy his size and is a pretty good shooter for a 6'10" guy -- which is totally different from someone like Dunleavy.

Someone is always going to have to sit. Against good teams, with all our guys healthy, that's going to be Kelly and Czyz.

Characterizing an opinion as SILLY is a sure way to draw additional comments.

Dunleavy 6'9" after he grew, Skinny, good shooter, excellent ball handler for his size and a decent defensive player

Kelly 6'10", skinny now, Appears to be an excellent shooter although only time and opportunity will tell, not as good with ball handling( as Dunleavy started as a guard before having a growth spurt), very savy and a good passer.

There are a lot of similarities, so I don't think it SILLY to compare these two.

SilkyJ
12-01-2009, 05:15 PM
Characterizing an opinion as SILLY is a sure way to draw additional comments.

Dunleavy 6'9" after he grew, Skinny, good shooter, excellent ball handler for his size and a decent defensive player

Kelly 6'10", skinny now, Appears to be an excellent shooter although only time and opportunity will tell, not as good with ball handling( as Dunleavy started as a guard before having a growth spurt), very savy and a good passer.

There are a lot of similarities, so I don't think it SILLY to compare these two.

I don't think its silly to compare the two either, but I also wouldn't say Kelly appears to be an "excellent" shooter. He's shooting 40% and 30% on 3s, albeit in limited action. 6 games where you average 12mpg is WAY too small to draw any conclusions and say he's not a good shooter, but I don't know how you can say he looks like an "excellent" shooter, other than him winning a 3 point contest 6 months ago, which is meaningless.

jimsumner
12-01-2009, 05:29 PM
I think Kelly is a very good shooter. Keep in mind that the sample size also includes two exhibition games, a blue-white game, a public practice, public summer league games and the commentary of teammates based on pick-up games and six weeks of practice.

But defensively, he is a bit of a 'tweener. We'll see how that plays out. But he's going to be a factor offensively in some big games this season. IMO.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 05:40 PM
Characterizing an opinion as SILLY is a sure way to draw additional comments.

Dunleavy 6'9" after he grew, Skinny, good shooter, excellent ball handler for his size and a decent defensive player

Kelly 6'10", skinny now, Appears to be an excellent shooter although only time and opportunity will tell, not as good with ball handling( as Dunleavy started as a guard before having a growth spurt), very savy and a good passer.

There are a lot of similarities, so I don't think it SILLY to compare these two.

Do you have a strong objection to the word "silly?" How about "misguided?" Or "foolish?" I hardly see any similarities between their games; I'm sorry. If there's a way you'd like me to phrase that sentiment instead, please let me know.

CDu
12-01-2009, 05:55 PM
Do you have a strong objection to the word "silly?" How about "misguided?" Or "foolish?" I hardly see any similarities between their games; I'm sorry. If there's a way you'd like me to phrase that sentiment instead, please let me know.

In fairness, I tend to agree that "silly" comes across as condescending. I completely agree (obviously, as it was me with whom you were agreeing in your post) that the two have very dissimilar games. But I do think that "silly," "misguided," and "foolish" are not the most appropriate ways to convey that point. I'd take offense to my opinion being called "foolish" or "silly" as well.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 06:01 PM
In fairness, I tend to agree that "silly" comes across as condescending. I completely agree (obviously, as it was me with whom you were agreeing in your post) that the two have very dissimilar games. But I do think that "silly," "misguided," and "foolish" are not the most appropriate ways to convey that point. I'd take offense to my opinion being called "foolish" or "silly" as well.

OK, seriously, pick a word that would express my sentiments and wouldn't offend you. "Comparing Dunleavy to Kelly is __________." I'm not being sarcastic -- legitimately interested in what you all think might come across better.

CDu
12-01-2009, 06:02 PM
I don't think its silly to compare the two either, but I also wouldn't say Kelly appears to be an "excellent" shooter. He's shooting 40% and 30% on 3s, albeit in limited action. 6 games where you average 12mpg is WAY too small to draw any conclusions and say he's not a good shooter, but I don't know how you can say he looks like an "excellent" shooter, other than him winning a 3 point contest 6 months ago, which is meaningless.

I'd actually say that Dunleavy wouldn't qualify as necessarily an "excellent" shooter. He was solid from 3-point range (35-37% during his college career), but he was not really a marksman. His career .371 from 3-pt range and .698 ft% was nothing spectacular.

I might even say that Kelly may become a better pure shooter than Dunleavy, though we certainly haven't seen it yet from Kelly. Dunleavy's game was his versatility as a 6'9" guard/wing. He could shoot a little, he could attack the rim off the dribble, he could pass a little. He did a lot of things pretty well, though nothing in particular fantastically well. Kelly, on the other hand, appears to have a very refined shooting game for a big man, and is a good passer. But he's not a ballhandler like Dunleavy, nor is he the athlete that Dunleavy was.

I think the biggest similarity the two have is that they are tall and thin. But in terms of their skills, I think the two are very different. I think we have several skilled bigs from which to draw better comparisons of skillsets.

CDu
12-01-2009, 06:04 PM
OK, seriously, pick a word that would express my sentiments and wouldn't offend you. "Comparing Dunleavy to Kelly is __________." I'm not being sarcastic -- legitimately interested in what you all think might come across better.

How about just "not a very good comparison?" Does it really need to be any more of a value judgment than that?

cato
12-01-2009, 06:13 PM
[Dunleavy] did a lot of things pretty well, though nothing in particular fantastically well.

That's underselling Dunleavy. You don't carve out a starting spot and vital role on a team as loaded at the 01 team by doing a lot of things "pretty well."

CDu
12-01-2009, 06:20 PM
That's underselling Dunleavy. You don't carve out a starting spot and vital role on a team as loaded at the 01 team by doing a lot of things "pretty well."

I think you're nitpicking/misreading the meaning of my word choice here. I thought doing "pretty well" at a lot of things was a compliment. Obviously Dunleavy was a fantastic basketball player. My point was that he wasn't spectacular at any one thing (like freshman JJ for example). He was instead pretty good at a lot of different things, which combined to made him a pretty darn good player. Saying someone does a lot of different things "pretty well" is not underselling, in my opinion. It's basically saying he didn't have many weaknesses as a player. The only real weakness I can think of is that he wasn't very good at defense in the post. But then again, he wasn't a post player, so that was outside of his natural role.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 06:20 PM
How about just "not a very good comparison?" Does it really need to be any more of a value judgment than that?

I hereby change all "silly" references to "not a very good comparison." Apologies to all offended parties.

Indoor66
12-01-2009, 06:27 PM
I hereby change all "silly" references to "not a very good comparison." Apologies to all offended parties.

Again revealing your kinder, gentler side.

Between the sanctimony and sensitivity of some on this board, it is becoming difficult to express and opinion. IMO, Jumbo, you owe no apology.

Edouble
12-01-2009, 06:30 PM
I think you're nitpicking/misreading the meaning of my word choice here. I thought doing "pretty well" at a lot of things was a compliment. Obviously Dunleavy was a fantastic basketball player. My point was that he wasn't spectacular at any one thing (like freshman JJ for example). He was instead pretty good at a lot of different things, which combined to made him a pretty darn good player. Saying someone does a lot of different things "pretty well" is not underselling, in my opinion. It's basically saying he didn't have many weaknesses as a player. The only real weakness I can think of is that he wasn't very good at defense in the post. But then again, he wasn't a post player, so that was outside of his natural role.

Agree--it was Dunleavy's versatility and ability to play multiple positions that was the glue of the '99-'00 squad.

I definitely like the Shav comparison for Kelly. Remember how skinny Shav was when he first got to Durham? I'm sure that Kelly has a better shot than Shav ever did, but I think of both players as big guys that mix it up a bit. Dunleavy, to me, is a guard in a tall body.

ChicagoCrazy84
12-01-2009, 06:35 PM
Good analysis by Jumbo.

I agree with him on the point that we should go to a more inverted offense in many cases. We have some skilled big guys who can pass the ball with Brian, Ryan, Mason, and Miles (he can get better). If we have those guys up top, it will not only help free up Kyle, but also LT. Lance is too athletic to be settling for 12 foot jump shots and he should be doing more 1 on 1 so he can take advantage of his athleticism, but no so much his ability to put the ball on the floor :D
Having Scheyer and Dawkins running the baselines getting freed up for 3's wouldn't be so bad either.

CDu
12-01-2009, 06:39 PM
Between the sanctimony and sensitivity of some on this board, it is becoming difficult to express and opinion.

I disagree. I think there's plenty of ability to express an opinion without insulting others. Would you say that someone's opinion is foolish to their face? If so, that's an unfortunate (in my opinion) sign of the times. It's certainly common (too common I think) on message boards - something of which I've been definitely guilty and I'm trying to be better about. I just think that one can disagree with a bit more courtesy, that's all.

Anyway, sorry for contributing mightily to the courtesy hijack. We've gotten way off topic. I'd much rather talk about the skillsets of Kelly/Dunleavy/Shav anyway. :)

phaedrus
12-01-2009, 06:44 PM
I might even say that Kelly may become a better pure shooter than Dunleavy, though we certainly haven't seen it yet from Kelly. Dunleavy's game was his versatility as a 6'9" guard/wing. He could shoot a little, he could attack the rim off the dribble, he could pass a little. He did a lot of things pretty well, though nothing in particular fantastically well. Kelly, on the other hand, appears to have a very refined shooting game for a big man, and is a good passer. But he's not a ballhandler like Dunleavy, nor is he the athlete that Dunleavy was.



I didn't see Kelly play in high school, but wasn't he the McDonald's 3-point contest winner? For whatever it's worth, I think it suggests he's a substantially better shooter than we've seen in games thus far.

dw0827
12-01-2009, 08:20 PM
When I think someone's ideas are idiotic, silly, or asinine, I simply suggest that they are "misguided" or "perhaps mistaken."

Newton_14
12-01-2009, 09:01 PM
Ryan is actually an excellent shooter and will prove that in time. I can tell you that K feels Ryan is one of the better shooters on the team as he said as much in the open practice. I heard the comment first hand when they were working against zone defenses.

Ryan will be just fine. He just needs strength, experience, and to maintain confidence. I still say he is quicker than he looks. I have seen all of the preseason games, the regular games and one open practice, having seen most of those in Cameron. Ryan closed out well on smaller quicker guys several times especially when they were trapping. It is just going to take a bit more time for him to be effective against top competition, but I still think that happens this year even if it is limited.

I really wouldn't compare him to Dunleavy or Shav to be honest. To me he is a different player than both. In addition to his shooting skills, his strongest suit seems to be his basketball IQ and a unique ability to put passes in exactly the right spot they need to be in. And at times he has used his length effectively in altering shots and rebounding. I hope we see more of that. Once the light bulb comes fully on I think we will. I think he could be really special by the time his career is done, we just have to be patient in waiting for it to come together.

Just my take! Hope no one finds it "silly".:D (Just picking on you Jumbo:cool:)

bdeviled11
12-01-2009, 09:46 PM
The one thing that bothers me, and hopefully what Mason can help fix, is playing 3 on 5 when Duke is on offense. Against UCONN Duke's bigs took a total of 12 shots, or the same amount Singler took by himself. Scheyer and Smith took 40 combined. I really would like to see that somewhat evened out. I realize it was only one game, but Duke does have a tendency to do that in "big" games.
While I think phase II may be rougher than phase I, I hope it helps out in the long run, integrating Mason in the offense.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 10:19 PM
The one thing that bothers me, and hopefully what Mason can help fix, is playing 3 on 5 when Duke is on offense. Against UCONN Duke's bigs took a total of 12 shots, or the same amount Singler took by himself. Scheyer and Smith took 40 combined. I really would like to see that somewhat evened out. I realize it was only one game, but Duke does have a tendency to do that in "big" games.
While I think phase II may be rougher than phase I, I hope it helps out in the long run, integrating Mason in the offense.

Lance did have 11 points in that game -- it's just that 7 of them came from the FT line, which don't show up as field goal attempts. I agree that Duke needs to involve Mason in the offense, though, and in general, the bigs have been more involved this season than in the past, even when they aren't shooting.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 10:22 PM
I disagree. I think there's plenty of ability to express an opinion without insulting others. Would you say that someone's opinion is foolish to their face? If so, that's an unfortunate (in my opinion) sign of the times. It's certainly common (too common I think) on message boards - something of which I've been definitely guilty and I'm trying to be better about. I just think that one can disagree with a bit more courtesy, that's all.

Anyway, sorry for contributing mightily to the courtesy hijack. We've gotten way off topic. I'd much rather talk about the skillsets of Kelly/Dunleavy/Shav anyway. :)

Well (and I promise I'll let the thread hijack end after this too) I tell friends "aw man, that's silly!" all the time. Sometimes I'll even say an idea is stupid. Heck, my friends and I will lovingly call each other "idiots," because no one takes it seriously -- it's just part of banter. So I don't think the "would you say it to someone's face" thing quite works in that case, because it depends who that "someone" is -- a friend or a stranger. And I guess I like to think of you all as friends around here! ;)

NYDukie
12-01-2009, 10:24 PM
Well, it's officially December. Hard to believe the year is almost over, and hard to believe we're already into Phase II of the season. We already wrapped up Phase I (http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=336623&postcount=16) which, despite some adversity, went about as well as anyone could have hoped. And now it's on to the next stage, which we'll define as the Big Ten/ACC Challenge game at Wisconsin through the end of the year -- the 12/31 game against Penn. Here's what I'll be watching over the next month.

7) Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?
Of Duke's statistics, this is probably the most concerning -- the team's FTA/FGA is too low. Once again, this is another area where another active, 6'10" guy will help. So will playing some games against weaker teams, like Gardner-Webb. But I'm looking at Nolan Smith here and, even more, Kyle Singler. Scheyer has maintained his ability to draw contact, but Smith is attacking and not getting to the line, while Singler is hardly getting to the rim at all. Singler needs to take an extra dribble, and use his strength and savvy inside to get some easy baskets at the line and hopefully get the other team in foul trouble. That would be a great way to get himself going early. Speaking of which ...

8) Will Singler pick up his scoring after off-games at MSG?
I'm sure we all think he will. He's too good a shooter to miss open jumpers, too good a player not to make better moves to free himself off the dribble. But one other suggestion that I brought up in the preseason is for Duke to invert the offense more often. Let Kyle post up the guy guarding him, especially given the number of teams that use 3-guard lineups. He has legit post moves, size and a nice touch inside. Post him a bit. Let him vary his game.
[.

To get back on track as one of the posters mentioned, I feel for me that these are two of the more important points in how they develop over the next few weeks.

As we know, most championship level teams find ways to the foul line and usually make more free throws than their opponents attempt. Even though we do have two quality starting guards and a capable back up, none of them is a typical dribble drive penetrating guard that can draw fouls going for the score or setting up their teammates for a score and foul (i.e. Jay Williams, Duhon and JJ more recently). It will be important as the season progresses against better quality opponents for the team to win the FT battle and not just at end of a game due to fouling. Where will this come from? I think Kyle will be an important piece of this puzzle and as one poster stated, it is imperative that Kyle be more agressive in going to the basket. Nolan probably has the best combination of skills and athetic ability to regularly get to the basket effectively. If both him and Kyle can get to the line 6-8 times a game then the rest will fall into place I believe.

Speaking of Kyle, I hope his early season malaise is more getting accustomed to a new role as the SF (he is probably thinking, "Do I post up?, Do I drive? Do I go for 3? (changing roles makes players sometimes think too much rather than just play) and that of Nolan and Jon developing a certain chemistry and more prominant roles on the team. Where it seemed Kyle was to be the leader of the Big 3 going into the season, I'm not so sure at this time as both Nolan and Jon have shot out of the gate, which is not a bad thing at all. Given that Kyle appears to be the ultimate team player, him sharing the burden of carrying the team with Jon and Nolan probably suits him fine. Will Kyle get his groove back? Most likely a resounding yes barring something "silly" occuring over the season's lenght (Much love to you Jumbo:))

In the end I am more excited about this season than I intitially was a few months ago. Will there be bumps, yes there will be but I think overall this team is better suited for a NCAA run than those Duke teams of past 4 or 5 years as we have better overall quality players throughout the lineup (it's seemed as though we've only had 2 real scoring optoins the past few years compared to 3 and maybe 4 this year) even if we lack some depth in the backcourt.

Jumbo
12-01-2009, 10:47 PM
Even though we do have two quality starting guards and a capable back up, none of them is a typical dribble drive penetrating guard that can draw fouls going for the score or setting up their teammates for a score and foul (i.e. Jay Williams, Duhon and JJ more recently).

I don't really agree with either part of this. For one, guess who led the team in free throw attempts last year (at a solid 5.8 per game)? Yup, Jon Scheyer, ahead of "athletic" Gerald Henderson. And if Scheyer had gotten a couple of ridiculous no-calls this year (none worse than the hit he took on his acrobatic layup against UConn), he'd have been at the line more.

Next, Redick was certainly not a "dribble-drive penetrating guard." He did a decent job of getting to the basket late in his career, and used his savvy to draw fouls, but he was hardly a classic attacking guard. And the FTAs back that up -- He averaged just slightly more FTA than Scheyer as as a junior (6.3), despite a much more prominent role in the offense. I believe both Scheyer and Smith are better at getting to the rim than J.J. was.

And Duhon, while an excellent player, didn't consistently get into the lane either. The most free throws he ever attempted in a season was 96, in his junior year. Jon is averaging just over 5 FTA per game this year; Nolan is averaging 4. I hope/expect both can increase those numbers slightly and that Kyle can join them above 5.

Newton_14
12-01-2009, 10:56 PM
The Duke Basketball Report with Bob Harris and Coach K started today on the local AM Channel 620 The Buzz here in the Triangle.

Coach was really pleased with the 6 and 0 start to the season obviously. He stated he was especially pleased given that Mason missed all 6 and Nolan missed 2 games.

Coach stated that this team reminds him a lot of the late 80's and early 90's teams. When he stated early 90's, he quickly put a clarifier in that "Of course those early 90's teams had Grant Hill which is different".

He mainly said those teams had quality bigs that contributed a lot and they played motion offense with those teams. He mentioned Alarie, Bilas, Ferry, Laettner, Alaa A., and Chief. He feels this team will closely resemble some of those teams.

The show is a 5 minute clip and airs daily at 5:40 if any of you local guys are interested. Not very long obviously but normally a good discussion to listen in on.

NYDukie
12-02-2009, 08:38 AM
I don't really agree with either part of this. For one, guess who led the team in free throw attempts last year (at a solid 5.8 per game)? Yup, Jon Scheyer, ahead of "athletic" Gerald Henderson. And if Scheyer had gotten a couple of ridiculous no-calls this year (none worse than the hit he took on his acrobatic layup against UConn), he'd have been at the line more.

Next, Redick was certainly not a "dribble-drive penetrating guard." He did a decent job of getting to the basket late in his career, and used his savvy to draw fouls, but he was hardly a classic attacking guard. And the FTAs back that up -- He averaged just slightly more FTA than Scheyer as as a junior (6.3), despite a much more prominent role in the offense. I believe both Scheyer and Smith are better at getting to the rim than J.J. was.

And Duhon, while an excellent player, didn't consistently get into the lane either. The most free throws he ever attempted in a season was 96, in his junior year. Jon is averaging just over 5 FTA per game this year; Nolan is averaging 4. I hope/expect both can increase those numbers slightly and that Kyle can join them above 5.

While lumping my 3 examples into the "getting to the line" comments, I should have separated them and what they did to support my theory better. Jay was the dribble drive type that was able to get to line individually while also setting up teammates to get fouled, etc. Duhon was the type to get to the rim and set up him teammates to be in a position to finish or get fouled and have them get to line. Whereas, JJ just worked hard to get to the line often. I did overlook Scheyer as he is similar to JJ in the fact he will work to get to the line. I should have also included him with Nolan and Kyle as those who need to get to line roughly 6 times a game in order for us to meet and improve this segment of Duke's game.

Jumbo
12-02-2009, 09:12 AM
While lumping my 3 examples into the "getting to the line" comments, I should have separated them and what they did to support my theory better. Jay was the dribble drive type that was able to get to line individually while also setting up teammates to get fouled, etc. Duhon was the type to get to the rim and set up him teammates to be in a position to finish or get fouled and have them get to line. Whereas, JJ just worked hard to get to the line often. I did overlook Scheyer as he is similar to JJ in the fact he will work to get to the line. I should have also included him with Nolan and Kyle as those who need to get to line roughly 6 times a game in order for us to meet and improve this segment of Duke's game.

Gotcha -- that makes sense, and you're right.

Kim*
12-02-2009, 09:23 AM
I subscribe wholeheartedly to sg's hopefulness and concern re LT and Z. As one who has been constructively [I hope] critical of both, I was certainly impressed with LT's game v. UConn, and Z's rebounding has been solid. My questions remain: (1) Will LT's fierce energy be disciplined rather than chaotic? (2) With experience, has he become a bit more court-aware? So, was this a "one-game wonder" or has he finally learned how to be a rebounder? (3) Will both LT and Z remain stationary as screeners up top, or will their tendency to move and/or keep a shoulder or an elbow out too far result in foolish fouls? (4) Will Z continue his maddening habit of "settling himself" under the basket by bringing the ball down, thus courting steals, rather than going up just a few inches for a pretty easy basket? It seems that, because his footwork is still uncertain, he must "sense" that he needs to use a "rhythm dribble" to regain his balance. But it rarely works out well.

Point #4 hit the nail on the head of how I've always felt about Zoubs. He has the ability to have such a massive presence under the hoop, especially with the extra weight this year, but his overall uncertainty has eliminated many, many easy buckets for our team. He could easily average at least 4 additional ppg (plus a higher possibility of getting to the line) if he mentally trains himself to not bring the ball down to waist-level after an offensive rebound. He's such a huge dude, but he has the uncanny ability to shrivel up and dwarf himself down about a foot and a half and become such an easy target for steals/swats from even the smallest opposing guards. I think teams know that they can easily fluster him, and they will definitely take every opportunity to do so.

But to make this post not entirely critical of the kid.. I do think he's been showing much improvement. Although I feel like he started off stronger and more aggressive in the first few games compared to these last few games, but that has just been my observation in attending the games at MSG. But overall I've been quite pleased with his minutes. Yet, a small part of me is still frankly unsatisfied that we have to give this kind of analysis on our Senior big man, who should be well-aware of how to handle himself by now.

devilboomer
12-02-2009, 10:33 AM
7) Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?
Of Duke's statistics, this is probably the most concerning -- the team's FTA/FGA is too low. Once again, this is another area where another active, 6'10" guy will help. So will playing some games against weaker teams, like Gardner-Webb. But I'm looking at Nolan Smith here and, even more, Kyle Singler. Scheyer has maintained his ability to draw contact, but Smith is attacking and not getting to the line, while Singler is hardly getting to the rim at all. Singler needs to take an extra dribble, and use his strength and savvy inside to get some easy baskets at the line and hopefully get the other team in foul trouble. That would be a great way to get himself going early. Speaking of which ...

Agree that this is a huge need for us.

The problem, I think, is the style of play of our 3 main "attackers."

Nolan's style of attacking the basket involves an aggressive penetration, followed by a stepback and fadeaway jumper. It's hard to create contact and a foul there. Sometimes, Nolan does throw a dirty move and jukes his guy, but he usually completely clears him and gets quick layup. Again, no contact.

Singler seems to be preferring a lot of elbow jumpers and hook-shots at this point in the year. Doesn't seem to be trying to take it hard to the tin like he did last year.

Scheyer probably has a game best-suited to get to the line, as he does a good job of penetrating and finishing at the hoop. I think the problem is that Scheyer has a tendency to create "false contact" (i.e. the Reggie Miller leg-flare when he shoots 3s), and a lot of refs are refusing to call these fouls -- especially since they have now seen Scheyer play for a few years. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if this is part of the pre-game discussion that goes on between the refs -- "are we going to call those false-contact fouls on Scheyer's 3 pointers? How are we going to call block/charges in this game -- are we going to give any deference at all to secondary help defenders that slide into the lane?"

Neals384
12-02-2009, 07:43 PM
Singler seems to be preferring a lot of elbow jumpers and hook-shots at this point in the year. Doesn't seem to be trying to take it hard to the tin like he did last year.



My glass is half full on this. His first two years, Kyle had a tendency to take his drives one step too far - into the teeth of a bigger man. This year, he pulls up for an easy, open jumper. That should be his money game. Trouble is, they haven't been going in.

Neal

YourLandlord
12-02-2009, 11:36 PM
3) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the other bigs?

Hopefully hella less playing time going forward, unless their fouls are needed.

4) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the perimeter guys?

Hopefully less pressure all around.

5) Will the offense develop to match the defense?
Where did all of our diverse options go?


8) Will Singler pick up his scoring after off-games at MSG?
Singler was an absolute man tonight

9) Can Andre Dawkins develop into more than a spot-up shooter?
Eh, his spot up shooting is pretty darn good.


11) Can Scheyer and Smith continue to develop harmony between the need to score and the need to set up the offense?
durf.

12) Can the team build on the confidence/collective ego they established at MSG and play as if they truly believe they are the best team in the country?]

long way to go.

But how well Duke answers these questions in Phase II will tell us a lot heading into ACC season.

Good to have a game like this now rather than during conf time.

Wander
12-05-2009, 09:23 PM
I have no idea why you say that Scheyer is doing a good job getting to the line and Smith isn't considering that in the past four games Smith has shot 4, 4, 2, and 6 FTs while Scheyer has shot 4, 4, 3, and 6 FTs, but it is a concern overall.

Just to update this, because it's a huge concern for our team, I was wrong here. First of all, Scheyer has gotten to the line more the past two games. But more importantly, and this is surprising to me, is that Nolan actually has a bunch more free throw attempts from intentional fouls at the end of games that Duke is winning; I thought Scheyer had more of those, or at least an equal amount. Obviously, that's against the spirit of what we're trying to measure here. Scheyer is doing a much better job at getting to the line than Nolan is, good observation Jumbo. That's something Smith needs to be better at.

superdave
12-05-2009, 11:27 PM
We have 5 guys to split playing time at two spots - Zoubek, Thomas, Miles, Mason and Ryan. After watching the two MPs play zero in the 2nd half against St Johns, I wonder, how important is it to develop a normal, regular rotation? Or do we just go with whoever Coach K sees as the advantageous matchup?

Ryan seems like the odd man out if a regular rotation develops, but platooning the Plumlees and a Zoubek/Thomas combo could become what we see regularly.

I do think our ceiling is highest with the Plumlees playing big minutes all season and developing into steady, reliable defenders and offensive weapons. There could be fits and starts with the Plumlees, but we already know our limits with Zoubek and Thomas.

Indoor66
12-06-2009, 09:19 AM
We have 5 guys to split playing time at two spots - Zoubek, Thomas, Miles, Mason and Ryan. After watching the two MPs play zero in the 2nd half against St Johns, I wonder, how important is it to develop a normal, regular rotation? Or do we just go with whoever Coach K sees as the advantageous matchup?

Ryan seems like the odd man out if a regular rotation develops, but platooning the Plumlees and a Zoubek/Thomas combo could become what we see regularly.

I do think our ceiling is highest with the Plumlees playing big minutes all season and developing into steady, reliable defenders and offensive weapons. There could be fits and starts with the Plumlees, but we already know our limits with Zoubek and Thomas.

I think it is extremely safe to say that we will just go with whoever Coach K sees as the advantageous matchup.

arnie
12-06-2009, 10:03 AM
Point #4 hit the nail on the head of how I've always felt about Zoubs. He has the ability to have such a massive presence under the hoop, especially with the extra weight this year, but his overall uncertainty has eliminated many, many easy buckets for our team. He could easily average at least 4 additional ppg (plus a higher possibility of getting to the line) if he mentally trains himself to not bring the ball down to waist-level after an offensive rebound. He's such a huge dude, but he has the uncanny ability to shrivel up and dwarf himself down about a foot and a half and become such an easy target for steals/swats from even the smallest opposing guards. I think teams know that they can easily fluster him, and they will definitely take every opportunity to do so.

But to make this post not entirely critical of the kid.. I do think he's been showing much improvement. Although I feel like he started off stronger and more aggressive in the first few games compared to these last few games, but that has just been my observation in attending the games at MSG. But overall I've been quite pleased with his minutes. Yet, a small part of me is still frankly unsatisfied that we have to give this kind of analysis on our Senior big man, who should be well-aware of how to handle himself by now.

In yesterday's game, Zoubek received a pass from I believe, Thomas. Z was wide open several feet from the basket - he brought the pass down to his waist then went up for shot and made it. If anyone from St. Johns had been in the vicinity, the shot probably doesn't go in.

I just don't understand this habit. I take the broom to practice, give it to a stationary defender, feed him ball 100 times and everytime he brings the ball down to his waist; hit him on the arms. Of course, they may have been doing this for the past 4 years.

Jumbo
01-02-2010, 01:27 AM
As the decade ended, so too did Phase II of the season. Let's take a look back at the questions I posed coming into that stretch of games.


1) Can Duke Stay Healthy?
Thankfully, everything went well on that front. Keep knocking on wood.


2) Mason's Back! What does that mean for him?
Before the season, everything I heard from a variety of sources pointed to Mason Plumlee being one of Duke's four best players, starting and playing at least 25 mpg. Obviously, he's not going to step right into that role against Wisconsin. But can he get there in a little under three weeks, vs. Gonzaga at MSG?

It will be interesting to see whether he's rusty physically, but even more interesting to watch whether he's comfortable mentally. Remember, he's a freshman, and he missed some key practice time. It's hard to think his development won't be slower than anticipated.

Still, I think and hope that by the end of this phase, he'll be at the point I anticipated before the season. He has the ability to help the team in so many ways -- as a rebounder/shotblocker, as a extra ball-handler, as a high-post passer and, potentially, as the best scoring threat outside of our three perimeter starters. Ideally, by the end of this phase he'll be facing up and creating for himself and others, finishing those offensive boards we've failed to convert with dunks and maybe even posting and scoring a bit. Are these expectations high? Yes, but they're fair, especially since the most hype about Mason has come from his teammates and coaches.
The rust was a little thicker than I anticipated. Not only has it taken Mason Plumlee a little while to get back to his comfort level physically, but he clearly missed some major development -- despite the fact that he's a smart, instinctive player -- in the mental part of the game. He's missing assignments, making iffy passes that he'll eventually outgrow, out of position, etc. He's not at the point I'd hoped he'd reach by the end of this phase, but the reasons are completely understandable.
That said, he's showing signs that he can continue to grow into a larger role. And he's just a different kind of player -- unlike anyone Duke has, including his brother. (As an aside, it's unfair that they are so often lumped together; they have different styles and skill sets.) He is the most perimeter-oriented of Duke's bigs, the best ball-handler and passer, the best finisher and the most creative. There is still plenty of time for him to integrate those skills into this year's team and provide some alternative offensive options. People who expect him to be a back-to-the basket scorer (someone you'd just dump the ball to on the block and say "go to work") don't really understand his game yet. That will come, but he's more effective either facing the basket or cleaning up around the hoop. But if Duke feeds him more around the elbow and cuts off him, the attack could have some new wrinkles.


3) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the other bigs?
Well, obviously it means fewer minutes for some guys. I think, eventually, it means Lance Thomas will come off the bench as a defensive stopper. Hopefully it means added confidence for Miles. But I also think he'll make things easier for all the other bigs, because he'll be able to feed Zoubek and Miles in the post from the elbow, be able to play 5 with Lance at 4 in a quicker lineup and generally command enough attention to free up the other big guys.
This turned into a really sort answer: It meant they were willing to fight. Lance and Zoubs played some terrific ball and while Miles is still struggling with consistency, he's making an impact. Even Ryan Kelly has found a way to contribute. What does it mean? That, at the very least, Duke has a deep frontcourt with players who can contribute in a variety of ways.


4) Mason's Back! What does that mean for the perimeter guys?
I think it might actually mean more rest. One of the reasons why Scheyer, Singler and Smith have had to play so much is that they are pretty much the only guys who can initiate offense. Dawkins can score, but he's a finisher -- from deep. Miles and Zoubs can finish inside. But Plumlee can do that and create for others. So, K might feel a bit more comfortable taking Kyle out, for instance, with Mason in the game. The other thing Mason's presence might allow is for K to experiment a bit with Thomas at the 3, deepening Duke's perimeter. I don't expect to see it often, but in a game where Dawkins might struggle guarding an opposing 3, it's possible to play Thomas and Mason at the two forward spots with Singler out and not completely fall apart on offense. Clearly, Thomas can guard small forwards, so that's just a little something extra to watch.
In Phase II, it didn't mean much for the perimeter guys. But I continue to believe he can make their lives easier going forward.


5) Will the offense develop to match the defense?
Something I've noticed in recent years is that Duke's D starts out better than its offense. I think part of that can be attributed to effort -- Duke plays so hard every game, and I'm not sure every team can say that in November. And that obviously manifests itself most on defense. But Duke's offense has room to improve, and the pieces to make that happen. I'd like to see more of the hi-lo action from the preseason now that Mason is back. I'd like to see the guys keep moving and screening and sharing the ball -- the bigs, in particular, are much better when they get some early touches. And I'd like to see Nolan drive and kick better -- as well as Scheyer and Singler -- rather than drive and shoot fadeaways.
Duke, I think, is ranked 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. And yet I still think the offense can get better. The best development -- by far -- has been the chemistry between Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith which has led to better ball movement for everyone. There has been more movement off the ball, and Nolan is doing a better job of driving and kicking. It will be interesting to see how well Duke can execute against good teams, game in and game out, though. And I'd still like to see Duke enter the ball to the bigs a bit more -- not necessarily so they can turn and shoot, but just to move the defense.


6) Will Duke be able to run more and get easier baskets?
Yes. I'm happy with the transition game. If K lets them go -- and that can be a big if in tight games -- I think this team is often best when it pushes the tempo.


7) Can Duke get to the free throw line more often?
Of Duke's statistics, this is probably the most concerning -- the team's FTA/FGA is too low. Once again, this is another area where another active, 6'10" guy will help. So will playing some games against weaker teams, like Gardner-Webb. But I'm looking at Nolan Smith here and, even more, Kyle Singler. Scheyer has maintained his ability to draw contact, but Smith is attacking and not getting to the line, while Singler is hardly getting to the rim at all. Singler needs to take an extra dribble, and use his strength and savvy inside to get some easy baskets at the line and hopefully get the other team in foul trouble. That would be a great way to get himself going early. Speaking of which ...
This is still a big problem. Duke needs to focus on finding ways to get to the line more.


8) Will Singler pick up his scoring after off-games at MSG?
I'm sure we all think he will. He's too good a shooter to miss open jumpers, too good a player not to make better moves to free himself off the dribble. But one other suggestion that I brought up in the preseason is for Duke to invert the offense more often. Let Kyle post up the guy guarding him, especially given the number of teams that use 3-guard lineups. He has legit post moves, size and a nice touch inside. Post him a bit. Let him vary his game.
This is still a concern, and I still offer the same remedy. I'll get back to this in Phase III.


9) Can Andre Dawkins develop into more than a spot-up shooter?
Don't get me wrong -- he's helping this team enormously just through his ability to spread the floor and knock down open threes. But his defense can improve -- his lateral quickness might not be at a superior level, but he has a good vertical, is pretty strong and has good speed. The question really becomes how well he can adjust to coaching at that end, so that he can do more than hold his own. And right now, his ball-handling doesn't seem to be a strength -- if he can get a bit more comfortable with the ball in the open floor, it would take a lot of pressure off the other perimeter players.
It hasn't happened yet. But obviously Andre had some incredibly painful issues to deal with over the last few weeks. Basketball should be the least of his concerns.


10) What happens to Ryan Kelly?
I think with Mason Plumlee back, he'll fall out of the rotation against good teams. There's just not enough room to play five bigs if everyone is healthy and not in foul trouble. Kelly has shown some good signs, but clearly needs to get much stronger. I hope he'll be able to help when needed, but right now, I can't imagine him playing over the Plumlee brothers, Thomas or Zoubek.
Kelly was a pleasant surprise. I still view him as a situational player, but he has done well to prove that he can contribute, even in extremely limited minutes. He's going to be a nice option against certain teams.


11) Can Scheyer and Smith continue to develop harmony between the need to score and the need to set up the offense?
Nolan is in attack mode -- finally -- and it's great. But as I mentioned above, he has to kick when he has an open teammate. And Scheyer is generally scoring well, but he has a heavy burden in running the offense and Duke will need him to score against good teams. So it would be great to see Duke continue to run sets where Nolan is asked to set up Scheyer for shots, in addition to the standard offense. Basically, we need to make sure all three perimeter guys are getting double-figure shot attempts each game. We need an equal-opportunity perimeter attack, hopefully aided by some solid inside scoring.
Ya think? Far and away the most affirmative answer to any of these questions during Phase II. Great work by those guys -- you can just see the chemistry on the court now.


12) Can the team build on the confidence/collective ego they established at MSG and play as if they truly believe they are the best team in the country?
That's the next step. It's great to hear the guys talk about winning a national championship, and I'm convinced they truly believe they can do it. That means rising to a new level of mental toughness, looking to break an opponent's will, going on vintage Duke runs, taking the court as if they own it. They believe in each other; the chemistry is great. Now it's time to move from just trying to beat the other team to attempting to destroy them -- right from the opening tip.

I think so. Obviously the Wisconsin game was a major disappointment, but the team really has shown more of a killer instinct since then. They know they're good, and they know they're getting better. We saw growth in this area during Phase II, and there's room for even more of a collective ego as the season progresses.

chrisheery
01-02-2010, 09:44 AM
I only disagree with one point. I think ryan, not Mason, is the best ball-handler and passer of out big men.