Charting Duke vs. UConn

[Jumbo]

I always warn against reading too much into single-game plus/minus stats -- they are far more valuable over a larger sample size. That said, it's nice when they back up our observations. And that certainly was the case against UConn, particularly in regard to Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek.

Not only were their individual numbers strong, but Duke's two best lineups had them paired together at the 4/5. Duke was +11 when they were on the court together, meaning the team was outscored by 2 with the other 4/5 combos (although, to be fair, that's partly due to the fact that Zoubek fouled out while Duke was up big and before we took the air out of the ball a bit).

It's also worth noting that Duke played through one of the biggest fears we've had as fans -- Singler in foul trouble. Duke was +2 with Kyle out of the game, and the Smith-Scheyer-Dawkins-Thomas-Zoubek lineup was +5. Just more ways to appreciate what was an excellent night to be a Duke fan.

Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Lance Thomas 48-36 (+12)
Nolan Smith 68-57 (+11)
Jon Scheyer 63-53 (+10)
Brian Zoubek 36-26 (+10)
Kyle Singler 56-49 (+7)
Andre Dawkins 31-27 (+4)
Miles Plumlee 30-30 (+0)
Olek Czyz 0-2 (-2)
Jordan Davidson 0-2 (-2)
Steve Johnson 0-2 (-2)
Ryan Kelly 8-11 (-3)

Per 40 Minutes
*Note -- Czyz, Davidson and Johnson weren't given credit for a full minute played, but I treated their per-40 numbers that way.
Brian Zoubek +18.2
Lance Thomas +16.6
Nolan Smith +11.0
Jon Scheyer +10.8
Andre Dawkins +9.4
Kyle Singler +9.0
Miles Plumlee +0
Ryan Kelly -24
Olek Czyz -80
Jordan Davidson -80
Steve Johnson -80

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Zoubek (x5) 16-10 (+6)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Thomas-Zoubek (x4) 9-4 (+5)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek 8-6 (+2)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x6) 21-20 (+1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly (x2) 2-1 (+1)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles 3-2 (+1)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Miles 2-2 (+0)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Zoubek (x2) 3-4 (-1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles (x2) 4-6 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Zoubek 0-2 (-2)
Davidson-Dawkins-Johnson-Czyz-Kelly 0-2 (-2)

[jv001]

I like it when someone most were bashing shows up in the + side of your numbers. Lance and Zoubs played very well and Jon played one heck of a game. Our defense was outstanding on a night when the shots were not falling. Uconn is a very good defensive team. A lot like Villanova last year. I think we showed that we can indeed play with this type team this year and will only get better when Mason returns. Thanks as always for your work on this. Go Duke!

[MChambers]

Thanks from me, too.

I just watched the game, having DVR'd it, due to family obligations last night (yes, I know my priorities are all messed up). My impression was that Zoubs was amazingly effective, despite putting the ball on the floor once or twice and despite being largely unable to score down low.

And Lance played his best game in a year, I think, or maybe ever. He showed better hops than I remember seeing and was more aggressive offensively.

[dukestheheat]

This is a very interesting analysis! Even though it's only one game, this shows that these two (Thomas and Zoubek) play well together versus a team with a large, mobile frontcourt; note the drop off when we move from having them in together to having just one in!

Also, the energy/hustle that Thomas brings coupled with the rebounds that both provide seem to give us an edge that perhaps we haven't had in previous seasons.

dth.