Charting Duke vs. Radford

[Jumbo]

The kid can play, huh? Quite a performance by Andre Dawkins today, but he's getting plenty of love elsewhere. What I find interesting is that Ryan Kelly continues to put up excellent splits. I warned after the last game about the Taylor King Effect against bad teams. And I'll admit that I had very low expectations for Kelly coming into the season. But he's not King. He has a variety of skills that help the team when he's on the floor. And while I worry about him defensively against a good team, his offensive versatility -- particularly his high-post passing -- really helps. It's great to see Duke's offense functioning with all five players as scoring threats, and he's a big part of that.

Also worth noting that Zoubek bounced back with a nice showing after a shaky plus/minus performance against Charlotte. And you can also see that we're starting to build toward being able to finish games with a smaller lineup on the floor -- Scheyer, Smith, Dawkins and Singler, with one of many guys at the 5 (probably Mason Plumlee down the line). Anyway, on to the numbers ...

Individuals
Andre Dawkins 67-34 (+33)
Kyle Singler 79-50 (+29)
Nolan Smith 78-49 (+29)
Brian Zoubek 45-16 (+29)
Jon Scheyer 77-50 (+27)
Ryan Kelly 51-28 (+23)
Miles Plumlee 55-46 (+9)
Olek Czyz 23-15 (+8)
Lance Thomas 37-34 (+3)
Steve Johnson 2-3 (-1)
Casey Peters 2-3 (-1)
Jordan Davidson 4-7 (-3)

Per 40 Minutes
Brian Zoubek +82.9
Andre Dawkins +60
Ryan Kelly +51.1
Nolan Smith +43.0
Kyle Singler +38.7
Jon Scheyer +38.6
Olek Czyz +32
Miles Plumlee +15.7
Lance Thomas +6
Steve Johnson -20
Casey Peters -20
Jordan Davidson -30

Lineups
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Zoubek (x3) 17-6 (+11)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Zoubek 11-4 (+7)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Thomas-Miles 10-4 (+6)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Zoubek 5-0 (+5)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Czyz-Miles (x2) 10-6 (+4)
Smith-Dawkins-Czyz-Kelly-Miles 5-2 (+3)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Thomas-Zoubek 3-0 (+3)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Kelly-Miles (x2) 6-4 (+2)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles 5-3 (+2)
Smith-Dawkins-Thomas-Czyz-Zoubek 4-2 (+2)
Smith-Dawkins-Thomas-Kelly-Miles 4-2 (+2)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Kelly-Zoubek 3-2 (+1)
Scheyer-Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Miles 3-3 (+0)
Scheyer-Dawkins-Thomas-Kelly-Zoubek 2-2 (+0)
Davidson-Dawkins-Thomas-Czyz-Kelly 2-2 (+0)
Smith-Dawkins-Singler-Kelly-Miles 0-0 (+0)
Davidson-Peters-Johnson-Czyz-Kelly 2-3 (-1)
Davidson-Dawkins-Thomas-Kelly-Miles 0-2 (-2)
Scheyer-Smith-Singler-Thomas-Miles (x3) 12-20 (-8)

[Bob Green]

The line-ups that include Brian Zoubek are back at the top. If Big Z could get a little better at turning offensive rebounds into putback points, he would really stand out in these +/- stats.

[juise]

Did anyone else notice that Duke's starters, who were on the floor together three different times, had a -8 differential? I know single game +/- are not always very meaningful and that Radford came out shooting well, but that statistic is pretty surprising for a game that Duke won by 37. It was easily the worst differential for any group that saw significant minutes.

(Please don't think that I'm saying this was a bad game for Duke or that K needs to change rotation. I'm just pointing to an interesting piece of data.)

[Spam Filter]

I am of the opinion that before long Ryan Kelly will be the starting 4 ahead of LT, and may even keep it after Mason comes back.

[BlueintheFace]

I am of the opinion that before long Ryan Kelly will be the starting 4 ahead of LT, and may even keep it after Mason comes back.

I am not of that opinion. Defense, experience, and passion are the most important qualities in a player for K IMO.

[mgtr]

I think it is interesting that there was one positive lineup which excluded both Singler and Scheyer. I don't think that happens very often.

[mike88]

I am not of that opinion. Defense, experience, and passion are the most important qualities in a player for K IMO.

While I agree that defense and passion are very important in earning minutes at Duke, I am not sure that experience is key per se. Experience helps with understanding expectations and overcoming adversity (and often shows itself once the ACC season starts), but Coach K doesn't build his rotation based on one's class (see Paulus, Greg)

I love what Lance brings in terms of passion, communication, and defense, and I expect that he will continue to play a big role, but I have been very impressed with Ryan Kelly's court sense - he seems to know where the ball should go and where he should be at all times; yesterday, I was surprised at how well he defended. If he can do those things and hit his shots, it is going to be hard to keep him on the bench. Some of those minutes may allow Kyle a little rest, but some will come from Lance.

[moonpie23]

as much as we've been enjoying all the team's offensive efforts, i for one am watching to see how they develop defensively. It's going to be very important to be able to get into a good team's face and shut them down.

[loran16]

I am not of that opinion. Defense, experience, and passion are the most important qualities in a player for K IMO.



No. No No NO NO NO!

Lets start with these three qualities here.

Defense- Key Importance. We're in agreement here, right, D is truly important from your starters.

Experience- I think we'll debate the merits of this one. I'm of the opinion that if a player is not performing as well as another player, the experience of both players is meaningless. You should PLAY THE BETTER PLAYER, regardless of whether the worse player is a senior, or the better player is a Freshman. This is why the thought was that Mason was going to start this year over LT.
---------Granted, experience CAN make one player a better player than another...helps with improving D, knowing one's place in the system, etc. But experience is NOT a separate factor...experience makes a player better, but if that experience doesn't make Player A better than Player B, PLAYER B should be the one to play more often.

I only bolded this point because K (and other coaches, such as Cutcliffe-though football is slightly different) tends to fail at realizing this...it's one of the things that annoys me.

PASSION- NOOOOOOOOOOO. For anyone who follows baseball, this is like arguing that David Eckstein is great because he has grit, or that Carlos Beltran sucks because he doesn't care about winning.
EVERY PLAYER IS PASSIONATE ABOUT WINNING. There is no such thing that will make Lance more passionate than Ryan Kelly. NOTHING. Both want to help their team win as best as possible and both will play as good as possible. Passion is not a criteria. It is something EVERY DUKE PLAYER* HAS.
---------------*It is the rare exception that one player will on a team be not putting his all into the game...and that generally happens on teams with guys with bad characters. We don't have those guys. Also, K is a strong motivational coach. So the Passion argument does not apply.

=================================
Now do i think that Kelly will start this season? Errr probably not..i suspect Mason will take the 4 spot by the end of december. But those criteria you outlined above drive me bonkers.

[sandinmyshoes]

Lance brings something in experience, and that blend of physical and mental strength, more often found in seniors and in freshmen and sophmores.

[Jumbo]

While I agree that defense and passion are very important in earning minutes at Duke, I am not sure that experience is key per se. Experience helps with understanding expectations and overcoming adversity (and often shows itself once the ACC season starts), but Coach K doesn't build his rotation based on one's class (see Paulus, Greg)

I love what Lance brings in terms of passion, communication, and defense, and I expect that he will continue to play a big role, but I have been very impressed with Ryan Kelly's court sense - he seems to know where the ball should go and where he should be at all times; yesterday, I was surprised at how well he defended. If he can do those things and hit his shots, it is going to be hard to keep him on the bench. Some of those minutes may allow Kyle a little rest, but some will come from Lance.

It won't matter in a couple of weeks because Mason Plumlee will be back. And he's going to start over both of them.

[mike88]

It won't matter in a couple of weeks because Mason Plumlee will be back. And he's going to start over both of them.

I sure hope Mason comes back strong and is ready to play starter's minutes by January 1. From what I saw before his injury, he will add a great deal to what is already a very strong rotation. I had assumed Lance would get all the minutes backing him up, but now I am not so sure. As I said earlier, Ryan may also allow Kyle to get 3-5 minutes game time rest, assuming he can cover the other team's "3" or that we play zone.

It is certainly fun thinking about all the possible combinations with this year's team- I can tell Coach K is enjoying it, too. They are good now, and they have plenty of room to improve as the season goes along.

[BlueintheFace]

No. No No NO NO NO!

Lets start with these three qualities here.

Defense- Key Importance. We're in agreement here, right, D is truly important from your starters.

Experience- I think we'll debate the merits of this one. I'm of the opinion that if a player is not performing as well as another player, the experience of both players is meaningless. You should PLAY THE BETTER PLAYER, regardless of whether the worse player is a senior, or the better player is a Freshman. This is why the thought was that Mason was going to start this year over LT.
---------Granted, experience CAN make one player a better player than another...helps with improving D, knowing one's place in the system, etc. But experience is NOT a separate factor...experience makes a player better, but if that experience doesn't make Player A better than Player B, PLAYER B should be the one to play more often.

I only bolded this point because K (and other coaches, such as Cutcliffe-though football is slightly different) tends to fail at realizing this...it's one of the things that annoys me.

PASSION- NOOOOOOOOOOO. For anyone who follows baseball, this is like arguing that David Eckstein is great because he has grit, or that Carlos Beltran sucks because he doesn't care about winning.
EVERY PLAYER IS PASSIONATE ABOUT WINNING. There is no such thing that will make Lance more passionate than Ryan Kelly. NOTHING. Both want to help their team win as best as possible and both will play as good as possible. Passion is not a criteria. It is something EVERY DUKE PLAYER* HAS.
---------------*It is the rare exception that one player will on a team be not putting his all into the game...and that generally happens on teams with guys with bad characters. We don't have those guys. Also, K is a strong motivational coach. So the Passion argument does not apply.

=================================
Now do i think that Kelly will start this season? Errr probably not..i suspect Mason will take the 4 spot by the end of december. But those criteria you outlined above drive me bonkers.

Experience: Please... see Elliot Williams last season (among many). However, I will say that, generally, the experience factor is with regard to freshman vs non-freshman. This is the case here.

Passion: First, baseball is a largely individual sport (especially compared to basketball) and so pretty much inapplicable.

Second, Coach K likes...no, LOVES to have a vocal passionate leader on the floor. Make no mistake about it, LT's biggest contribution to this team aside from defense is this passion on the floor. Perhaps every player at Duke plays with passion, but not every player has the kind of passion that other players feed off of. By all accounts, that is the #1 thing LT brings to the floor aside from defensive versatility. In large part, K plays the better players, but I think what he really does is play the players that give him the best chance to win. There have been plenty of times when I believe K has chosen a less skilled player to take significant minutes away from another player in large part because of that player's effect on the crowd or team when his passion/leadership/whatever you want to call it, is on the floor. Lee Melchionni's senior year comes to mind off the top of my head.

Right Now, LT has an advantage over Kelly in defense, experience, and passion. Kelly has an advantage in shooting and court vision.

All of that being said, even if you take out the experience and passion factors I think you still play LT over Kelly. Defense > Offensive production and court vision on this team with so many offensive weapons already.

[darthur]

All of that being said, even if you take out the experience and passion factors I think you still play LT over Kelly. Defense > Offensive production and court vision on this team with so many offensive weapons already.

Out of curiosity, can someone say what Lance does on offense in the starting lineup? I've only been able to watch one game so far, and it wasn't so clear to me. In the NBA, the defensive specialist is a tried and true formula, but usually these specialists are 3-point shooters who can just sit out on the 3-point line, not getting in anyone's way but also able to make the opponent pay if they aren't defended. Lance is not a 3-point shooter, and his natural position in the post is busy real estate with this team. So what does he do/should he be doing?

[BlueintheFace]

Out of curiosity, can someone say what Lance does on offense in the starting lineup? I've only been able to watch one game so far, and it wasn't so clear to me. In the NBA, the defensive specialist is a tried and true formula, but usually these specialists are 3-point shooters who can just sit out on the 3-point line, not getting in anyone's way but also able to make the opponent pay if they aren't defended. Lance is not a 3-point shooter, and his natural position in the post is busy real estate with this team. So what does he do/should he be doing?

Rebounds, put backs, the occasional post feed and finish, the 15 foot jumpshot.

[MChambers]

Rebounds, put backs, the occasional post feed and finish, the 15 foot jumpshot.

Setting screens (but he does pick up cheap fouls doing this).

[BlueintheFace]

Setting screens (but he does pick up cheap fouls doing this).

No, he asked about LT, not Zoubek ;)

[loran16]

Out of curiosity, can someone say what Lance does on offense in the starting lineup? I've only been able to watch one game so far, and it wasn't so clear to me. In the NBA, the defensive specialist is a tried and true formula, but usually these specialists are 3-point shooters who can just sit out on the 3-point line, not getting in anyone's way but also able to make the opponent pay if they aren't defended. Lance is not a 3-point shooter, and his natural position in the post is busy real estate with this team. So what does he do/should he be doing?

Nothing particularly special. This is part of the reason I'm against him being in the starting lineup...he's not a great defensive specialist (See McClure, David for a recent Defensive starter) and he doesn't do much on offense.

@Blueintheface, You're arguing for a factor that doesn't exist. (My baseball comparison was not meant to be a perfect analogy, but the point is still very valid here). The team does not need to get pumped up. They are all playing with passion. Moreover, is there really something Lance does that would even FIT THIS CATEGORY?! If you want to argue about pumping up your team or demoralizing the opposing team, i think of Nolan Smith (formerly Henderson) driving down the lane for a smashing dunk. I think of our Point guard slapping the floor. Alley-Oops to Miles or Singler. I think these effects are mostly minimal myself. But what does Lance do? Yell in the air when other players make plays? Pull up jump shots?

Even if you think passion actually is a reason that makes one player better than another (which i don't), Lance doesn't fit. Really.

[BD80]

Nothing particularly special. This is part of the reason I'm against him being in the starting lineup...he's not a great defensive specialist (See McClure, David for a recent Defensive starter) and he doesn't do much on offense.
...

Lance is a NECESSARY defensive starter.

Basketball is a TEAM sport, and defense is a TEAM effort, particularly the way Duke plays defense under Coach K. We force the ball in specific directions, we take away certain tendencies of opponents, and we RELY on defensive rotation. Lance fits well in our defense because he is usually in the correct place in the defense, and because he can defend in the post and on the perimeter. Our defense is better when Lance is in the game.

I cringe when I see Lance try to initiate offense, but I don't mind seeing him take open shots. If/when MP2 and/or Ryan learn the defensive rotations and learn to anticipate and react more quickly on defense, I think their offense will earn them more and more of Lance's minutes. Lance will still be in the game-end situations when Coach K can make the offense-defense substitutions.

[Greg_Newton]

Lance is a NECESSARY defensive starter.

Basketball is a TEAM sport, and defense is a TEAM effort, particularly the way Duke plays defense under Coach K. We force the ball in specific directions, we take away certain tendencies of opponents, and we RELY on defensive rotation. Lance fits well in our defense because he is usually in the correct place in the defense, and because he can defend in the post and on the perimeter. Our defense is better when Lance is in the game.

I cringe when I see Lance try to initiate offense, but I don't mind seeing him take open shots. If/when MP2 and/or Ryan learn the defensive rotations and learn to anticipate and react more quickly on defense, I think their offense will earn them more and more of Lance's minutes. Lance will still be in the game-end situations when Coach K can make the offense-defense substitutions.

I agree that Lance is the default starter for now, at least. As you said, he's a veteran, he knows what he's doing, and he doesn't hurt us. Until Ryan can prove he can hold his own against SFs/PFs on elite teams, he won't be displacing Lance in the rotation.

However, I wouldn't be shocked to see him move ahead of Lance on the depth chart by March, for three reasons.

A) His overall bball IQ may make up for his lack of experience. The fact that he sees the floor and seems to understand the system so well after just a few weeks in practice is very impressive, and given a few months I wouldn't be surprised if he surpasses Lance on the "knowing where to be" scale.

B) IMO, he's a much better interior defender than Lance. While not a great jumper, he's a long, agile 6'10 who has great shot-blocking timing. If he can stay in front of forwards on the perimeter and/or not get too bullied on the inside (a big if), it's a huge boost having another 6'10 shot blocking threat on the floor. Ryan paired with 2 of Mason/Miles/Kyle creates quite a formidable defensive front line... a lineup with 3 legitimate shot-blockers is an exciting prospect.

C) He fits our offensive system better than Lance. In our current system, his ability to consistently hit the open 15-20 footer from the high post is a big boost, and he's already the best interior passer on the team. It also doesn't hurt that he can finish lobs with dunks.

I love Lance, and he'll get utility minutes no matter what. But Ryan offers much more "reward" if he can neutralize the "risk" he represents on defense against the high-majors.

[Exiled_Devil]

I am not of that opinion. Defense, experience, and passion are the most important qualities in a player for K IMO.

Two things to add on in regards to the defense part, and why he will start over Plumlee or Kelly for much of the season -

1. He's our most versatile defender, who has already guarded the 1-5 this season. Neither of the freshman forwards can guard that small.

2. Whenever we play zone, he starts. He's the point in our starting zone. Watch how much he talks when in that position. It's a leadership role as much as a spot on the floor.

He gets the nod more often than not for those two reasons.

[BlueintheFace]

Two things to add on in regards to the defense part, and why he will start over Plumlee or Kelly for much of the season -

1. He's our most versatile defender, who has already guarded the 1-5 this season. Neither of the freshman forwards can guard that small.

2. Whenever we play zone, he starts. He's the point in our starting zone. Watch how much he talks when in that position. It's a leadership role as much as a spot on the floor.

He gets the nod more often than not for those two reasons.

Well, over Kelly yes... it remains to be seen with Plumlee.

[Jumbo]

Two things to add on in regards to the defense part, and why he will start over Plumlee or Kelly for much of the season -

1. He's our most versatile defender, who has already guarded the 1-5 this season. Neither of the freshman forwards can guard that small.

2. Whenever we play zone, he starts. He's the point in our starting zone. Watch how much he talks when in that position. It's a leadership role as much as a spot on the floor.

He gets the nod more often than not for those two reasons.

Except that we're not going to play that much zone. Trust me when I say that he will not start over Mason. He'll play a lot, regardless. But Mason is at a different level and, as good as this team has looked so far, people are going to be really psyched when they see how this system works with Mason playing a key role.

[BlueintheFace]

Except that we're not going to play that much zone. Trust me when I say that he will not start over Mason. He'll play a lot, regardless. But Mason is at a different level and, as good as this team has looked so far, people are going to be really psyched when they see how this system works with Mason playing a key role.

Jumbo, I believe you, but I have to say- i was a bit discouraged by Mason's complete reluctance to create contact at all on offense in his very limited action. In fact he downright avoided it with the ball in his hands. Every shot was fading away on the block. Is it reasonable to assume that this is a freshman issue that will be cleared up relatively quickly... or perhaps first game jitters? If he shows some of the aggression I have heard about to some length, I am sure he will hold down that spot. I am just saying that I did not see it in his debut...