Hot Stove Baseball

[Olympic Fan]

Just thought I'd start a thread for the handful of baseball fanatics on this board to discuss offseason developments.

Let me start it off by saying that as a Yankee fan, my No. 1 offseason priority is to sign Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, a 6-foot-4 lefty with a 100 mph fastball.

Listening to his agent, it sounds like he wants to play in New York -- both the Yankees and Mets are interested, although the Red Sox and the Orioles have also made inquiries. The agent is talking about using the four-year, $32 million deal that Jose Contreras got after he defected as a starting point for negotiations.

One interesting sidelight ... a couple of months ago, a NY Times reporter suggested that Chapman was, in fact, 26 years old and not 21. The followup investigations I've seen seem to confirm that he is, indeed, 21 years old (unlike Puerto Rico and the Dominican, Cuban bureacracy is fairly reliable). While he would still be valuable as a 26-year-old, that five-year difference is significant.

I'm also a Braves fan and I'm curious to hear what any of you around Atlanta are hearing. I saw that Tim Hudson signed a three-year deal -- which means the Braves have six solid starters inked for next year. Is it possible to deal one for a corner outfielder or first baseman? Or is Heywood enough of an addition to the team's offensive potential?

[InSpades]

Listening to sports radio the other day... heard Mike Francesa (not my favorite sports radio person) talking about Roy Halladay. He made the statement that the Blue Jays would actually give away Roy Halladay (for nothing in return) to a team willing to take Vernon Wells with him. I'm not sure how reliable that statement is but it's pretty amazing if you ask me. That's how bad Vernon's contract is (something like $20M per year for the next 5). Would the Mets possibly be interested in that? Maybe not the full contract but some combination of taking on the contract and giving away prospects. They need another outfielder (admittedly not a centerfielder) and could certainly use another stud starter. An outfield of Wells/Beltran/Francoeur would cover a lot of ground in a spacious stadium. I'm not so sure the Mets are in a position to take on close to $40M in salary though.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Let me start it off by saying that as a Yankee fan, my No. 1 offseason priority is to sign Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, a 6-foot-4 lefty with a 100 mph fastball.

Listening to his agent, it sounds like he wants to play in New York -- both the Yankees and Mets are interested, although the Red Sox and the Orioles have also made inquiries. The agent is talking about using the four-year, $32 million deal that Jose Contreras got after he defected as a starting point for negotiations.

One interesting sidelight ... a couple of months ago, a NY Times reporter suggested that Chapman was, in fact, 26 years old and not 21. The followup investigations I've seen seem to confirm that he is, indeed, 21 years old (unlike Puerto Rico and the Dominican, Cuban bureacracy is fairly reliable). While he would still be valuable as a 26-year-old, that five-year difference is significant.
I heard a discussion on Chapman the other night on the radio heading home from the Duke game. A lefty with a 100 mph fastball, they said Chapman compared himself to The Big Unit (Randy Johnson). But the dearth of reliable scouting information coming out of Cuba makes him somewhat of an unknown commodity - scouts have seen very little of him, and just a few innings/games makes signing him to a big contract an iffy proposition. But no worse than signing Kei Igawa, who's turned into a career minor leaguer. What the heck, it's not my money. :D I hope the Yankees sign him.

[YourLandlord]

But the dearth of reliable scouting information coming out of Cuba makes him somewhat of an unknown commodity - scouts have seen very little of him, and just a few innings/games makes signing him to a big contract an iffy proposition.

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/aroldis-chapman-everything-you-need-to-know/

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, thanks for the link, Landlord -- very in depth and perceptive scouting report.

I was talking to an ex-player recently about Chapman, but while he didn't get into the specifics of the linked article, he did assume the same general view of the Cuban lefty -- above-average velocity, but needs to get better command of his pitches to be a star.

That's where his age might be an issue. A 21-year-old struggling to polish his command is no big deal. Some of the greatest lefties in history went through that -- Koufax and Randy Johnson as two examples. A 26-year-old STILL struggling for command is more worrisome.

Again, the stuff I've read makes it sound like the 21-year report is correct, but there are a few skeptics. If I were a GM, that's something I would do my best to make sure of before offering a mega-deal to the kid.

FWIW, I watched the Yankee Hot Stove show on Yes Thursday night, hoping to learn something about Chapman. Three Yankee beat reporters and a Yes exec were the panel and while they didn't mention Chapman, they did agree:

(1) Matsui is probably not going to be resigned

(2) The Yankees want to sign Damon for one year ... Scott Boros wants a four year deal for his client. The panel thought the Yankees might go to two, but no further.

The Matsui/Damon issue basically is determined by the crowded situation at DH. The Yankees want Posada to take 80 games at DH and maybe another 80 as a catcher. If Damon re-signs, he'll get 40-plus games at DH to rest his aging legs and 100-plus in left. That leaves 40 or so DH games for A-Roid or Jeter to use to rest their aging bones. The problem with Matsui is that he is only a DH, so signing him robs the Yankees of their flexibility.

(3) The Yankees will re-sign Pettite for a one-year deal, but only after a long winter of negotiations with his agents.

(4) The Yankees won't get in the FA race for Jason Bay or Matt Holiday. And they won't try to trade for Roy Halladay. In fact, they predicted Hallada would start the year with Toronto and would probably be traded in June or July to a contented that either lost a starter or needs a boost to make a pennant run.

(5) The Yankees won't bid for John Lackey

(6) The most likely Yankee FA target is Mark Derosa, who is seen as sort of a super-utility man, able to play left, third, second or right. The big competition might be Philadelphia, which wants him to replace Ruiz at third.

[YourLandlord]

(4) The Yankees won't get in the FA race for Jason Bay or Matt Holiday. And they won't try to trade for Roy Halladay. In fact, they predicted Hallada would start the year with Toronto and would probably be traded in June or July to a contented that either lost a starter or needs a boost to make a pennant run.

(5) The Yankees won't bid for John Lackey


Just like they weren't going to get in on the race for Mark Teixeira.

I'll believe it when I see it.

[CameronDuke]

Just thought I'd start a thread for the handful of baseball fanatics on this board to discuss offseason developments.

Let me start it off by saying that as a Yankee fan, my No. 1 offseason priority is to sign Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, a 6-foot-4 lefty with a 100 mph fastball.

Listening to his agent, it sounds like he wants to play in New York -- both the Yankees and Mets are interested, although the Red Sox and the Orioles have also made inquiries. The agent is talking about using the four-year, $32 million deal that Jose Contreras got after he defected as a starting point for negotiations.

One interesting sidelight ... a couple of months ago, a NY Times reporter suggested that Chapman was, in fact, 26 years old and not 21. The followup investigations I've seen seem to confirm that he is, indeed, 21 years old (unlike Puerto Rico and the Dominican, Cuban bureacracy is fairly reliable). While he would still be valuable as a 26-year-old, that five-year difference is significant.

I'm also a Braves fan and I'm curious to hear what any of you around Atlanta are hearing. I saw that Tim Hudson signed a three-year deal -- which means the Braves have six solid starters inked for next year. Is it possible to deal one for a corner outfielder or first baseman? Or is Heywood enough of an addition to the team's offensive potential?

Braves fan here. First, I think Heyward is a year away from the bigs. He would provide decent power (16 HR last year in AA) but I don't think he is going to be a 40 HR type guy. He is big and looks like Ryan Howard, but he is a year away in my opinion and really isn't "all that." The kids got skills, but I would predict MAYBE 20 homers a year from him and he would probably hit around .250-270. I think the Braves need to re-sign Adam LaRoche to play first base. After coming to Atlanta last season, he almost matched his homer total that he had when he came to Atlanta from Pittsburgh. He would shore up their lineup, and if they could get a right fielder who has decent power, they would have a good lineup.

I have heard the Braves are trying to deal Derek Lowe for a bat in the lineup. If they could get an outfielder, like I said, they would be a contender in the NL next season. They already have the pitching in Vasquez, Jurrjens, Hansen, Hudson, and Kawakami. They need to re-sign Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano and their bullpen would be legit again. If they could trade a pitcher for a good bat and sign a free agent outfielder (Jermaine Dye, Brian Giles, etc.), they would contend. McLouth in center, Diaz or Anderson in LF, Dye or Giles in RF with Church platooning, McCann at catcher, Chipper at 3rd, Escobar at SS, Prado at 2b, LaRoche at first, with their pitching staff, they would be good.

[Olympic Fan]

Just like they weren't going to get in on the race for Mark Teixeira.

I'll believe it when I see it.

Your skepticism is certainly warrented, based on the past (although I don't know that Teixeira is a good example -- everything I heard and read last year was that he was going to be a major FA target, second only to Sabathia).

But I believe the current wisdom that the Yankees won't pursue Lackey. One, even though he is a solid starter and a proven postseason winner, he's probably going to be overvalued in this market. But more importantly, he's the same kind of gamble they made (and lost) with Carl Pavano. Lackey has had arm problems in each of the last two years -- he hasn't pitched 200 innings since 2007 (heck, he hasn't pitched 180 innings).

I know this is hard to believe, but with The Boss fading physically, I think the Yankees are a lot less likely to throw money around irresponsibly. For a Sabathia or a Teixiera ... yeah. For Carl Pavano or John Lackey? No. Remember, this year at the trading deadline, when the Yankees were locked in a tight battle with the Red Sox, they stood pat and refused to grab a big money contract (as the Red Sox did with Martinez).

If the Yankees fail to resign Pettite, that might change their thinking. And their negotiations with Damon will impact any decision on a FA outfielder. But as it stands, I believe the "insiders" that say the Yankees won't be a major player for Lackey, Holiday or Bay (although I wouldn't be surprise if an agent or two leaks that they are -- just to drive up the market).

[Channing]

Braves pick up Billy Wagner: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4705811

Hopefully Wagner can regain his form (he was pretty effective with Boston down the stretch) and really be a solid anchor at the end of games for the braves this year.

[Olympic Fan]

Braves pick up Billy Wagner: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4705811

Hopefully Wagner can regain his form (he was pretty effective with Boston down the stretch) and really be a solid anchor at the end of games for the braves this year.

I wonder what this means in regard to the free agency of Soriano and Gonzales. My uniformed guess is that it means they won't be re-signing one of them ... almost certainly not both of them.

As for the earlier mention about trading Lowe for a bat ... we talked about this earlier in the Atlanta Braves thread -- wasn't the thinking that because of his contract, he would be hard to move? The most tradeable guy would be Vasquez -- coming off a monster year with a very modest contract.

As a Braves fan (second to my Yankee passion), I long for the days when Ted Turner was running the show and spending money to make the Braves a jewel in his TBS network. Atlanta would be the perfect place for Holliday or Bay.

Maybe Jermaine Dye can come home for a year or two?

[feldspar]

Braves pick up Billy Wagner: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4705811

Hopefully Wagner can regain his form (he was pretty effective with Boston down the stretch) and really be a solid anchor at the end of games for the braves this year.

Wonder what else the Braves have up their sleeve. Their statement on Wagner seemed to indicate this was only the beginning and used the words "championship-caliber team."

[rasputin]

Wonder what else the Braves have up their sleeve. Their statement on Wagner seemed to indicate this was only the beginning and used the words "championship-caliber team."

Cox can lead them to another playoff choke for old times' sake.

[jimsumner]

"Maybe Jermaine Dye can come home for a year or two? "

You think Dye has a whole year left in him? :)

As a Yankees/Braves fan, do you think the Bombers have any interest in Gonzalez? Some of the fan sites seem to think so. But some of the fan sites think the Yankees should be able to trade Ian Kennedy for Roy Halladay, even-steven, so there.

I think the rationale is that Gonzalez becomes the eighth-inning guy, freeing up Hughes and Joba to be starters. Personally, I think the Yanks need to start grooming a replacement for Rivera. Are any of these guys that guy?

[Duvall]

Wonder what else the Braves have up their sleeve. Their statement on Wagner seemed to indicate this was only the beginning and used the words "championship-caliber team."

Prolly going to go out and get a first baseman, since they don't actually have one.

[feldspar]

I wonder if Mike Hampton is available?

[Olympic Fan]

I've been reading a lot of Braves sites and the conventional wisdom (FWIW) is that the Wagner signing almost certainly means that the Braves won't sign Mike Gonzales (especially since his agent is Scott Boras).

They offered him arbitration for the same reason that Boston offered Wagner arbitration -- that means if he signs with another team, the Braves will get that team's No. 1 draft pick (they are essentially trading their own No. 1 -- which will go to Boston for the Wagner signing; for whoever signs Gonzales).

And, yes, I have heard that the Yankees might be in the mix.

A lot of the Braves insiders seem to think that Atlanta might step up to keep Soriano. If not, they offered arbitration and he's a type A free agent, so they would get another first round pick if he signs somewhere else.

Signing Soriano and 1B LaRoche appear to be the Braves' top two off-season priorities. After that, much of the FA speculation centers on OF Mike Cameron, who supposedly has left it be known he'd like to play in Atlanta.

Jim, I don't know about Dye -- he's a gamble. He'll be 36 years old next season and he's coming off a mediocre year (.793 OPS). However, he's one year removed from an excellent season in 2008 -- .886 OPS (.292 BA with 34 homers, 96 RBIs, 96 runs scored).

Plus, he had a better year in a down 2009 season that Garrett Anderson, Jeff Francouer (with Atlanta), Jordan Shafer or Ryan Church, who combined to start more than 200 games in the OF for the Braves. Dye played almost every day in RF for the White Sox (he DH'ed just seven times).

When you look at it as Dye replacing Anderson in left, that's a clear upgrade.

As for the Braves being a contending type team, I think the starting rotation makes them a contender. It's probably the best six-deep rotation in baseball. Yeah, they need more offense -- a big key is Chipper. He was a great hitter in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (over 1.000 OPS all three years) ... he was only a good hitter in 2009 (.818 OPS). Does he bounce back or is he on a downhill slide?

If Chipper bounces back, the Braves can re-sign LaRoche and add one more slugger (either a FA outfielder or Heywood, if he's ready), then I could see Atlanta contending in the NL East ... or at least for a wild card.

[rasputin]

I've been reading a lot of Braves sites and the conventional wisdom (FWIW) is that the Wagner signing almost certainly means that the Braves won't sign Mike Gonzales (especially since his agent is Scott Boras).

They offered him arbitration for the same reason that Boston offered Wagner arbitration -- that means if he signs with another team, the Braves will get that team's No. 1 draft pick (they are essentially trading their own No. 1 -- which will go to Boston for the Wagner signing; for whoever signs Gonzales).

And, yes, I have heard that the Yankees might be in the mix.

A lot of the Braves insiders seem to think that Atlanta might step up to keep Soriano. If not, they offered arbitration and he's a type A free agent, so they would get another first round pick if he signs somewhere else.

Signing Soriano and 1B LaRoche appear to be the Braves' top two off-season priorities. After that, much of the FA speculation centers on OF Mike Cameron, who supposedly has left it be known he'd like to play in Atlanta.

Jim, I don't know about Dye -- he's a gamble. He'll be 36 years old next season and he's coming off a mediocre year (.793 OPS). However, he's one year removed from an excellent season in 2008 -- .886 OPS (.292 BA with 34 homers, 96 RBIs, 96 runs scored).

Plus, he had a better year in a down 2009 season that Garrett Anderson, Jeff Francouer (with Atlanta), Jordan Shafer or Ryan Church, who combined to start more than 200 games in the OF for the Braves. Dye played almost every day in RF for the White Sox (he DH'ed just seven times).

When you look at it as Dye replacing Anderson in left, that's a clear upgrade.

As for the Braves being a contending type team, I think the starting rotation makes them a contender. It's probably the best six-deep rotation in baseball. Yeah, they need more offense -- a big key is Chipper. He was a great hitter in 2006, 2007 and 2008 (over 1.000 OPS all three years) ... he was only a good hitter in 2009 (.818 OPS). Does he bounce back or is he on a downhill slide?

If Chipper bounces back, the Braves can re-sign LaRoche and add one more slugger (either a FA outfielder or Heywood, if he's ready), then I could see Atlanta contending in the NL East ... or at least for a wild card.

Chipper also had a lot of owies, and that number only increases with age.

[feldspar]

Wow, the Braves just picked up Saito for one year as well.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, the Braves just picked up Saito for one year as well.

I assume that means that the Braves won't resign Soriano.

If Wagner can regain his old form -- and he looked strong late last season with the Red Sox -- that's a fair trade for the Braves, Wagner and Saito for Gonzales and Saito. Also, they come out ahead in the draft -- giving up their first round pick for Wagner, but getting first-round picks for Gonzales and Soriano (Saito does not require compensation).

Now, re-sign Laroche and get a sluggling OFer.

Good news for the Yankee fan in me -- the Phillies just signed Polanco to replace Ruiz at third base. Their other option was Mark Derosa, who is the Yankees' top free agent target (other that re-signing Pettite and Damon). Looks like it comes down to the Yankees and Mets (Derosa is a north Jersey guy who has said several times that he'd like to play in New York).

Question for our Red Sox fans: What do you think of the proposed idea to move Pedroia from second to shortstop next season?

That's not a move many players can make (I remember Gil McDougald doing it in the mid-1950s). According to Bill James, it's easy to make a rightward move down the defensive scale (SS-2B-CF-3B-RF-LF-1B), but hard to go left.

Pedroia was a subpar defensive second baseman. You really think he can handle shortstop???

[JasonEvans]

Pedroia was a subpar defensive second baseman. You really think he can handle shortstop???

The Sox didn't. They have signed Marco Scutaro (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j-bHc5LZ6FtFgcXBiUTLCbbRs8YwD9CCKL5G0) for 2 years.

--Jason

[Olympic Fan]

The hot stove is heating up with the start of winter meetings and the Hall of Fame vote from the Veterans Committee.

As the latter, they elected manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey. Just missing election was labor organizer Marvin Miller (he got 10 of the required 12 out of 16 votes needed).

I like this -- it keeps alive the tradition of the veteran committee getting it wrong every year. Whitey Herzog? He ranked 32nd on the manager career win list and managed to lose more titles than he won (since he only won one world title, that's not hard to do).

Doug Harvey was not a bad choice -- although how they continue to overlook Hank O'Day, who was essentially the father of modern impiring, I'll never know.

And the snub of Miller, while not unexpected, shows that the Veteran's Committee is not going to let history get in the way of prejudice.

As for the winter meetings starting, the first hot rumor is that Joel Pinero will be the first FA hot property -- ahead of Lachey or Holiday. Also news that Soriano wants to return to the Braves. Can they afford him now that they've signed Wagner and Saito? Stay tuned.

As a Yankee fan, I'm intrigued that the Yankees traded Bruney, a young reliever, to the Nationals for a player to be named later. I'm hoping for Kevin Costner!

[YourLandlord]

Pedroia was a subpar defensive second baseman.

How have you developed this opinion?

I mean, especially since you watch Hollywood Robbie Cano on a regular basis. He makes Pedroia look like Ozzie Smith.

[Olympic Fan]

How have you developed this opinion?

I mean, especially since you watch Hollywood Robbie Cano on a regular basis. He makes Pedroia look like Ozzie Smith.

I developed this opinion by use of exactly the same reasoning that Red Sox fans use to deride Derek Jeter's defense. Both Pedroia and Jeter commit less errors than the average AL players at their position, but both have lower than league average range factors.

Both have managed to fool the AL managers that vote on gold gloves -- Pedroia winning the GG at second base in 2008; Jeter winning it four times, including this season.

And every Red Sox fan knows what a terrible fielder Jeter is, right?

Bringing up Cano doesn't change anything -- I wasn't comparing Pedroia's defense to Cano, but to the average AL second baseman ... if you believe in range factor (as the Jeter haters do), Pedroia is clearly "subpar".

But since you brought Cano up, I should point out that his range factor is above the league average. He has averaged 5.04 plays per 9 innings in his career; the league average is 4.93 (Pedria's career range per 9 innings is 4.73).

So "Hollywood" Cano is clearly the superior defensive second baseman in this discussion.

As for moving Pedroia to shortstop, where his shocking lack of range would make him an even bigger defensive liability, as Jason pointed out, the Red Sox weren't going to be that stupid, signing Scutaro to play the position instead.

[YourLandlord]

I developed this opinion by use of exactly the same reasoning that Red Sox fans use to deride Derek Jeter's defense. Both Pedroia and Jeter commit less errors than the average AL players at their position, but both have lower than league average range factors.

Both have managed to fool the AL managers that vote on gold gloves -- Pedroia winning the GG at second base in 2008; Jeter winning it four times, including this season.

And every Red Sox fan knows what a terrible fielder Jeter is, right?

Bringing up Cano doesn't change anything -- I wasn't comparing Pedroia's defense to Cano, but to the average AL second baseman ... if you believe in range factor (as the Jeter haters do), Pedroia is clearly "subpar".

But since you brought Cano up, I should point out that his range factor is above the league average. He has averaged 5.04 plays per 9 innings in his career; the league average is 4.93 (Pedria's career range per 9 innings is 4.73).

So "Hollywood" Cano is clearly the superior defensive second baseman in this discussion.

As for moving Pedroia to shortstop, where his shocking lack of range would make him an even bigger defensive liability, as Jason pointed out, the Red Sox weren't going to be that stupid, signing Scutaro to play the position instead.

I would counter that in their short careers, Pedroia has played on that side of the infield with one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the game (Youk), which leads to fewer opportunities. Cano, on the other hand, has usually played with the Yankee DH at 1st du jour.

Given their short careers, this has a larger effect than evaluating someone after a 14 year career, for example.

[pfrduke]

I would counter that in their short careers, Pedroia has played on that side of the infield with one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the game (Youk), which leads to fewer opportunities. Cano, on the other hand, has usually played with the Yankee DH at 1st du jour.

Given their short careers, this has a larger effect than evaluating someone after a 14 year career, for example.

If you go by range factor, over Pedroia's career, the numbers of the Yankee and Red Sox first basemen are not that dissimilar - in fact, in two of the years, the Yankee first basemen have made slightly more plays than the Red Sox ones.

2009 - BOS: 8.68, NYY: 8.71
2008 - BOS: 9.22, NYY: 9.06
2007 - BOS: 8.86, NYY: 9.23

In those three years, Pedroia's range has been 4.39 ('09), 4.75 ('08), and 4.88 ('07); Cano's is 4.71 ('09), 5.15 ('08), and 5.22 ('07).

Range factor is certainly not the be-all/end-all of defensive metrics, but Cano certainly comes out ahead by that factor, and his lead is not attributable to differences in the people playing first base.

[pfrduke]

If you go by range factor, over Pedroia's career, the numbers of the Yankee and Red Sox first basemen are not that dissimilar - in fact, in two of the years, the Yankee first basemen have made slightly more plays than the Red Sox ones.

2009 - BOS: 8.68, NYY: 8.71
2008 - BOS: 9.22, NYY: 9.06
2007 - BOS: 8.86, NYY: 9.23

In those three years, Pedroia's range has been 4.39 ('09), 4.75 ('08), and 4.88 ('07); Cano's is 4.71 ('09), 5.15 ('08), and 5.22 ('07).

Range factor is certainly not the be-all/end-all of defensive metrics, but Cano certainly comes out ahead by that factor, and his lead is not attributable to differences in the people playing first base.

Replying to my own post, I think it's interesting that both have had similarly declining numbers over their last three seasons in the league.

Also, on a not-entirely-unrelated note, baseball reference is such a wonderful site, and I love any excuse to go delving around on it.

[YourLandlord]

Also, on a not-entirely-unrelated note, baseball reference is such a wonderful site, and I love any excuse to go delving around on it.

Then here's one for you.

What is [balls in play by Yankees pitchers / balls in play for Red Sox pitchers] for those years?

I believe the ratio will be >1, accounting for the more opportunities for Cano and thus the higher range factor.

These things balance out over an entire career (which is why most defensive metrics are judged as non-predictive until a player has 10 years in the majors), but for a 3 year period as we are observing here, a difference in pitching staffs could lead to this difference.

Delve away!

[pfrduke]

Then here's one for you.

What is [balls in play by Yankees pitchers / balls in play for Red Sox pitchers] for those years?

I believe the ratio will be >1, accounting for the more opportunities for Cano and thus the higher range factor.

These things balance out over an entire career (which is why most defensive metrics are judged as non-predictive until a player has 10 years in the majors), but for a 3 year period as we are observing here, a difference in pitching staffs could lead to this difference.

Delve away!

Ok, so here's what (I think) the relevant math is.

In-play% is, I think, too broad - it factors in all balls in play, and we're really concerned with infield. So we can figure out ground out%, plus IF-fly out%, and work from there.

Also, let's look at the baseline - how many more plays did Cano make per 9?

2007: 0.34
2008: 0.40
2009: 0.32

Here are the relevant numbers for the Yankees:

2007: 42.21 GO% + 5.43 IFF% = 47.64
2008: 42.50 GO% + 4.68 IFF% = 47.18
2009: 40.10 GO% + 5.56 IFF% = 45.66

Here are the relevant numbers for the Red Sox:

2007: 40.75 GO% + 6.05 IFF% = 46.80
2008: 41.39 GO% + 5.12 IFF% = 46.51
2009: 39.17 GO% + 5.63 IFF% = 44.80

Your hypothesis is right - more infield outs available to the Yankees than the Red Sox in all three seasons. But, the difference is really small - if you apply this to the 27 outs in nine innings, the numbers look like this:

2007: BOS - 12.64 IFO/9; NYY - 12.86 IFO/9; difference = 0.22
2008: BOS - 12.56; NYY - 12.74; 0.18
2009: BOS - 12.10; NYY - 12.33; 0.23

So across the entire infield, the difference in outs is smaller than the difference in range between Cano and Pedroia at just one position. The difference in staff might explain some of the difference in range, but it far from equalizes the pair.

[Olympic Fan]

The latest gossip from the winter meetings in Indy:

The Tampa Bay Rays are apparently making a bid to join the Roy Holladay sweepstakes. Reportedly, Toronto likes their package of RHP Wade Davis (a great prospect who made his ML debut earlier this year) and BJ Upton, who is still just 24 years old and one of baseball's best CF. The holdup could be Holladay's signability in Tampa -- they wouldn't give up that much to rent him for one season.

Supposedly, when the Yankees inquired about Holladay, they were told it would take a package that included Jose Montera (their best minor league slugging prospect), Austin Jackson (a speed AAA centerfielder who is ready to come up to the majors) and Joshua Chamberlain. Doubt the Yankees deal Montera -- especially since they would then have to sign Holladay to what amounts to a FA contract.

The Yankees are serious about negotiations for Detroit CF Curtis Granderson. They were close to pulling a trigger on a three-way deal with Arizona and Detroit that would have sent Granderson to New York in exchance for Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy, Michael Dunn and Phil Coke. Apparently, the Yankees balked at including Dunn, a promising young LHP. Bill Madden, the best of the Yankee beat reporters, claimed that the deal is not dead -- that Detroit may agree to take a lesser prospect in place of Dunn.

BTW It's not official yet, but everybody seems certain that the Yankees will re-sign Pettite at something line $10-11 million for one year. They are just working out details of the deal.

The most active team in the FA market is -- surprise, surprise -- the Seattle Mariners. They've already picked up Chone Figgins (what a top of the order that will be -- Ichero and Figgins 1-2!). Now they're talking to both Jason Bay and John Lachey. Reportedly, they have another $26 million budgeted for free agents. That's probably not enough for both Bay and Lachey, but they could get one and still have enough left for another moderately priced FA.

[rasputin]

The hot stove is heating up with the start of winter meetings and the Hall of Fame vote from the Veterans Committee.

As the latter, they elected manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey. Just missing election was labor organizer Marvin Miller (he got 10 of the required 12 out of 16 votes needed).

I like this -- it keeps alive the tradition of the veteran committee getting it wrong every year. Whitey Herzog? He ranked 32nd on the manager career win list and managed to lose more titles than he won (since he only won one world title, that's not hard to do).

Doug Harvey was not a bad choice -- although how they continue to overlook Hank O'Day, who was essentially the father of modern impiring, I'll never know.

And the snub of Miller, while not unexpected, shows that the Veteran's Committee is not going to let history get in the way of prejudice.

As for the winter meetings starting, the first hot rumor is that Joel Pinero will be the first FA hot property -- ahead of Lachey or Holiday. Also news that Soriano wants to return to the Braves. Can they afford him now that they've signed Wagner and Saito? Stay tuned.

As a Yankee fan, I'm intrigued that the Yankees traded Bruney, a young reliever, to the Nationals for a player to be named later. I'm hoping for Kevin Costner!

Whitey should be blackballed because he won only one title? Let's remove Earl Weaver from the HOF too, then. (I jest. Earl was one of the greatest managers ever.) Had it not been for Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985, the White Rat would have two. And I'm not moved by career wins by a manager, which is a product of (1) how good were his players and (2) how long did he hang on.

[YourLandlord]

Now they're talking to both Jason Bay and John Lachey.

Good. Maybe John Lachey can overcome the embarrassment of being the one failed Lachey brother, not quite good enough for 98 degrees.

He's certainly no Nick or Drew.

http://www.erasems.org/media/imagic/resized/nick-drew-lachey_jpg_440x293_crop_q85.jpg

[Olympic Fan]

Whitey should be blackballed because he won only one title? Let's remove Earl Weaver from the HOF too, then. (I jest. Earl was one of the greatest managers ever.) Had it not been for Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985, the White Rat would have two. And I'm not moved by career wins by a manager, which is a product of (1) how good were his players and (2) how long did he hang on.

How about a mediocre .532 career winning percentage?

Before I vote a manager into the HOF, I won't SOMETHING to hang my hat on. In Herzog's case, he didn't have a titles. He didn't have the career wins and he didn't have a great overall record.

What did he have other than a great nickname ...

I'm not that great an Earl Weaver fan either -- he was the Bobby Cox of his times ... a lot of division titles and a lot of postseason chokes.

I mean, think about it. The Orioles sweep the Dodgers in the World Series in 1966 with Hank Bauer as manager. Two years later, Weaver replaces Bauer and coaches 16 straight seasons in which the Orioles win one more world title (in 1970), but lose in the WS in 1969, 1971 and 1979 (twice losing 3-1 leads, once losing to the Miracle Mets in the biggest upset in baseball history).

Then Weaver retires and is replaced by Joe Altobelli -- and the Orioles promptly win the 1984 world series in five games.

That's two titles in the three years before and after Weaver -- and one title in the 16 years he managed in between (not counting the year and a half he managed the Orioles into the cellar after his return in 1985).

Not sure if Weaver does or does not deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame -- he was a given a lot of talented players and he won a lot of games (though not many titles) with them. One of the great managers ever -- not even close.

[rasputin]

How about a mediocre .532 career winning percentage?

Before I vote a manager into the HOF, I won't SOMETHING to hang my hat on. In Herzog's case, he didn't have a titles. He didn't have the career wins and he didn't have a great overall record.

What did he have other than a great nickname ...

I'm not that great an Earl Weaver fan either -- he was the Bobby Cox of his times ... a lot of division titles and a lot of postseason chokes.

I mean, think about it. The Orioles sweep the Dodgers in the World Series in 1966 with Hank Bauer as manager. Two years later, Weaver replaces Bauer and coaches 16 straight seasons in which the Orioles win one more world title (in 1970), but lose in the WS in 1969, 1971 and 1979 (twice losing 3-1 leads, once losing to the Miracle Mets in the biggest upset in baseball history).

Then Weaver retires and is replaced by Joe Altobelli -- and the Orioles promptly win the 1984 world series in five games.

That's two titles in the three years before and after Weaver -- and one title in the 16 years he managed in between (not counting the year and a half he managed the Orioles into the cellar after his return in 1985).

Not sure if Weaver does or does not deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame -- he was a given a lot of talented players and he won a lot of games (though not many titles) with them. One of the great managers ever -- not even close.

Well, first, Herzog gets a pass for the AWFUL Texas Rangers team he piloted for one year, and that drags down his career win percentage. He jump-started the Royals when he took over that team in mid-year (in '75), and won the division the next three years running. Most importantly, when Herzog took over the Cardinals (and he was their GM as well for a time, having the stones to pull off deals others wouldn't), his teams were never the favorite to win the division, but he won it 3 times, then going to the WS all three times, winning one, losing one, and having one stolen by Denkinger.
Also, Herzog's Cardinals had the best record in the NL East in 1981 but didn't make the playoffs. Thanks Bowie Kuhn.
As for Weaver, he made the best out of the horses he had. Neither Lowenstein nor Roenicke was an excellent player, but they made for a fine platoon in left field. And he'd use other spare parts, shifting Kiko Garcia and Mark Belanger in and out. Pat Kelly is another spare part well-used. I admire that in a manager.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, first, Herzog gets a pass for the AWFUL Texas Rangers team he piloted for one year, and that drags down his career win percentage. He jump-started the Royals when he took over that team in mid-year (in '75), and won the division the next three years running. Most importantly, when Herzog took over the Cardinals (and he was their GM as well for a time, having the stones to pull off deals others wouldn't), his teams were never the favorite to win the division, but he won it 3 times, then going to the WS all three times, winning one, losing one, and having one stolen by Denkinger.
Also, Herzog's Cardinals had the best record in the NL East in 1981 but didn't make the playoffs. Thanks Bowie Kuhn.
As for Weaver, he made the best out of the horses he had. Neither Lowenstein nor Roenicke was an excellent player, but they made for a fine platoon in left field. And he'd use other spare parts, shifting Kiko Garcia and Mark Belanger in and out. Pat Kelly is another spare part well-used. I admire that in a manager.


Actually, The Cardinals were 86-76 in the full season before Herzog took over. He got them to 92-70 in his first full season. They were 86-76 in his last year in St. Louis ... and 87-75 the year after he left. He did a good job, but it's not like the franchise didn't have success before and after his tenure.

Herzog had four good years with the Royals (although they were 88-74 just two years before he took over ... so it's hard to say he jump started them). But the Royals were better a couple of years after he left, getting to the world series for the first time under Dick Howser. I'm not saying Herzog wasn't a successful manager, just that his accomplishments aren't Hall of Fame caliber in my eyes.

As for poor Earl Weaver, having to make do with all those spare parts. I guess it was too bad that he only had two Hall of Famers (Brooks Robinson and Frank Robinson) and all-stars such as Boog Powell, Dave Johnson and Paul Blair to work with for the first half of his career ... HOFer Eddie Murray and all-stars Doug DeCinces and Ken Singleton late.

Of course, that doesn't count the abundance of pitching he had -- his early rotation anchored by HOFer Jim Palmer, Dave McNally and Mike Cueller was easily the equivilent of Maddox-Smoltz-Glavine trio in their prime. Late in his tenure, he still had Palmer, but he also had Scott McGregor, Mike Flannigan and Dennis Martinez -- how many Cy Young's did they win during those years?

You want a manager that won with spare parts, look at the Mets team that beat the mighty Orioles in the '69 series -- it's BEST everyday players were Cleon Jones, Jerry Grote and Tommy Agee -- the WS MVP was Donn Clendenon. Ed Charles and Al Weis and Ron Swoboda all played major roles. They had Tom Seaver in the rotation along with Jerry Koosman, but their No. 3 starter was rookie Gary Gentry.

Look at the '79 Pirates that beat the Orioles in the series. They had Stargell and Dave Parker (a good match for Murray and Singleton), but they also made do with Tim Foli and Ed Ott and Rennie Sennett and Omar Moreno in the starting lineup. Now THAT's a bunch of spare parts.

You can try to pump up Weaver all you want, but the point is that he took over a championship quality team ... and when he retired, it became a championship team again -- but he managed to win just one championship in his 16 years at the helm.

That's not that impressive.

[weezie]

Well color me sadly resigned. Farewell, Curtis! You were a wonderful Detroit Tiger, decent, generous and gracious.
I'm happy for a guy who surely will be a winner with the Yanks but sad for my home town. Kind of at a loss for words here......

[ncexnyc]

Look at the '79 Pirates that beat the Orioles in the series. They had Stargell and Dave Parker (a good match for Murray and Singleton), but they also made do with Tim Foli and Ed Ott and Rennie Sennett and Omar Moreno in the starting lineup. Now THAT's a bunch of spare parts.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it seems to me that you're really stretching it when you say, "Now THAT's a bunch of spare parts." Your post also implies that somehow the 1979 Pirates weren't worthy of beating the Orioles.
That Pirates club had a pitching staff with Bert Blyeven, John Candelaria, Bruce Kison, Grant Jackson, and Kent Tekulve on it. Some of the hitters you failed to mention were Mike Easler, Phil Garner, Bill Madlock, John Milner, and Bill Robinson.
Moreno, who you're so quick to dismiss had close to 200 hits that year and he could fly. Tim Foli wasn't a scrub and was a solid player during his career. It's true that Stennett was past his prime, but he was a capable player none the less. IIRC Ott was a solid lefty hitter, not great stats, but for that time not to shabby.

[InSpades]

Well color me sadly resigned. Farewell, Curtis! You were a wonderful Detroit Tiger, decent, generous and gracious.
I'm happy for a guy who surely will be a winner with the Yanks but sad for my home town. Kind of at a loss for words here......

Weezie... what can you tell us about Granderson? From what I hear he's a great clubhouse guy and obviously his numbers say a lot about him. Was he hurt last year? Is that why his average and SBs were down?

From a Yankee fan perspective... as I said before, Kennedy seemed to have AAAA stuff. Great AAA pitcher but didn't seem to translate that to the majors. Not that he won't be able to do that but with Joba and Hughes in front of him... I'm not sure how much of a chance he would get. Marte's sparkling performance in the playoffs probably made Coke expendable. It stinks to give up Austin Jackson (for a while now the Yankees best outfield prospect) but Granderson is an all-star and there's not that many of those floating around. At the very last Granderson is a huge defensive upgrade over Damon or a huge offensive upgrade over Cabrera. I guess this leaves a spot for Damon or Matsui but not both on the Yankees roster.

[Olympic Fan]

Weezie... what can you tell us about Granderson? From what I hear he's a great clubhouse guy and obviously his numbers say a lot about him. Was he hurt last year? Is that why his average and SBs were down?

From a Yankee fan perspective... as I said before, Kennedy seemed to have AAAA stuff. Great AAA pitcher but didn't seem to translate that to the majors. Not that he won't be able to do that but with Joba and Hughes in front of him... I'm not sure how much of a chance he would get. Marte's sparkling performance in the playoffs probably made Coke expendable. It stinks to give up Austin Jackson (for a while now the Yankees best outfield prospect) but Granderson is an all-star and there's not that many of those floating around. At the very last Granderson is a huge defensive upgrade over Damon or a huge offensive upgrade over Cabrera. I guess this leaves a spot for Damon or Matsui but not both on the Yankees roster.

First, let me give you the Yankee perspective. The Yankees never wanted to re-sign Matsui ... this guarantees that he's gone. They do want to re-sign Damon if they can get him for 1-2 years. They expect to work it out with him. If they do, it may mean that Melky Cabrera is on the trading block and their everyday OF is Damon-Granderson-Swisher with Gardner as the 4th guy. If they don't get Damon, then Cabrera takes his spot.

I'd also like to get a Tiger fan's perspective in the change in Granderson's game. From the outside, it looks like he was a contact hitter (.361 and .365 OBP with 23 and 22 HRs) who began swinging for the fences last year (his OBP dropped to .327, his HR total climbed to 30). Also something happened to his OF defense late in the year -- he was always regarded as a superior defensive CFer ... but late in the season he was plagued by a number of bizarre misplays in center.

Still, he's 28 years old (he'll turn 29 in March) and still has great speed. As a lefty hitter, he ought to exploit the short porch in the New Yankee Stadium. I'm very happy to get him.

As for Ian Kennedy -- I've got to defend him. I think it's much too early to label him a AAAA pitcher. As noted, he has a superb minor league record. When he came up for the Yankees late in the 2007 season, he made three crucial starts in a pennant race and the Yankees won them all (he was just 1-0 personally, but he averaged 6.1 innings and a 1.89 ERA).

The next spring, he hurt his arm. He struggled through 10 injury plagued starts before they shut him down for the season. He started last season in AAA and was again superb. But he came back to pitch just one meaningless inning for the Yankees in September.

Obviously, I don't think he's a sure thing, coming off that injury. But I do think it's too soon to write him off. He's 24 years old and there's every indication that he's regained the form that made him untouchable when the Twins wanted him as a key part of the package for Santana.

Of course, he wound up in San Diego (with Edwin Jackson) in the second part of the deal. From what I understand, the two young pitchers that Detroit got in return are real power arms.

As for Austin Jackson, I agree that he's a nice prospect, but ... well, looking at his minor numbers I'm trying to figure out what he offers that Brett Gardner doesn't. He has great speed (and thus great range in center) and he hits for a decent average in the .280-.300 range. But he doesn't walk and he has no power.

Interesting thing about Jackson is that he originally signed a basketball LOI to play at Georgia Tech. He was going to be the point guard to replace Jarrett Jack and his choice to sign with the Yankees really set Hewitt's program back.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

As for Austin Jackson, I agree that he's a nice prospect, but ... well, looking at his minor numbers I'm trying to figure out what he offers that Brett Gardner doesn't. He has great speed (and thus great range in center) and he hits for a decent average in the .280-.300 range. But he doesn't walk and he has no power.
I saw Jackson play in Durham late in the season when bunch of us went to the Bulls/Scranton-WB game. I think he hit a home run, but also struck out the first couple of times up. Also saw Kei Igawa pitch that game. Wish the Yankees would trade him.....

Good luck to Ian Kennedy in San Diego. He's got a bright future there.

[bluebear]

Apparently, the Red Sox have traded Mike Lowell to the Rangers. This better be the a preliminary step towards a bigger deal. The Sox are taking a bit of a beating up here in the media and rightly so..lots of concerns about this year being a bridge year. The sox can't spend as much as the yankees but they can spend more than almost any other team. They are really only a few pieces away from being on par with the Yanks in '10. I'm not saying they should mortgage the future for next year but taking a step back for a year or two seems ridiculous given all the talent on the team.

[ncexnyc]

Apparently, the Red Sox have traded Mike Lowell to the Rangers. This better be the a preliminary step towards a bigger deal. The Sox are taking a bit of a beating up here in the media and rightly so..lots of concerns about this year being a bridge year. The sox can't spend as much as the yankees but they can spend more than almost any other team. They are really only a few pieces away from being on par with the Yanks in '10. I'm not saying they should mortgage the future for next year but taking a step back for a year or two seems ridiculous given all the talent on the team.

Funny, but when I first heard about the trade I also thought it was the first step in something bigger. However, the more I look at this it makes sense as a stand alone move. This enables the Sox to move Youk back to 3B and Victor can get the lions share of the play at 1B.

It's really funny how a Yankee championship season has Sox fans freaking. It's similar to how us Yankee fans acted last year after missing the playoffs.

Boston has a quality rotation of Beckett, Lester, Bucholtz, DiceK, and whoever. The pen is solid and they've got a closer who rivals Rivera. I wouldn't put much stock in Pimplebutt's problems during the playoffs last year, just look at Rivera in 2004 and you'll see where I'm coming from.

The Sox have a great starting line-up:
Kotchman 1B
Dustin 2B
Marco SS
Youk 3B
JD RF
Jacoby CF
Hermida LF
Ortiz DH
Victor C

If they can't land either Bay or Holliday they'll be fine as long as they pick-up a quality utility player or two. The really big fish are available next year anyway.

[bluebear]

Funny, but when I first heard about the trade I also thought it was the first step in something bigger. However, the more I look at this it makes sense as a stand alone move. This enables the Sox to move Youk back to 3B and Victor can get the lions share of the play at 1B.

It's really funny how a Yankee championship season has Sox fans freaking. It's similar to how us Yankee fans acted last year after missing the playoffs.

Boston has a quality rotation of Beckett, Lester, Bucholtz, DiceK, and whoever. The pen is solid and they've got a closer who rivals Rivera. I wouldn't put much stock in Pimplebutt's problems during the playoffs last year, just look at Rivera in 2004 and you'll see where I'm coming from.

The Sox have a great starting line-up:
Kotchman 1B
Dustin 2B
Marco SS
Youk 3B
JD RF
Jacoby CF
Hermida LF
Ortiz DH
Victor C

If they can't land either Bay or Holliday they'll be fine as long as they pick-up a quality utility player or two. The really big fish are available next year anyway.

I agree they have a good team as is but their current lineup makes for a solid wild card contender. Given the resources and talent they have, a few additional players would make them WS contenders...Again, I don't want them to blow up the farm, but I think they need to get Bay or Holliday. Of course, if they could work out deals for either Halliday or Adrian Gonzalez, I'd be happy with that too ;)

[YourLandlord]

Gammons to leave ESPN, as I'm sure you've heard.

Good column:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4733669&name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http:/%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fent ryID%3d4733669%26name%3dolney_buster

(this link, for some reason, is not really insider -- you can still access the article)

[bluebear]

Gammons to leave ESPN, as I'm sure you've heard.

Good column:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4733669&name=olney_buster&action=login&appRedirect=http:/%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fent ryID%3d4733669%26name%3dolney_buster

(this link, for some reason, is not really insider -- you can still access the article)

Looking forward to seeing him on NESN in the spring..

[YourLandlord]

What up now, itches!

Red Sox may sign Lackey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4741437

Better than giving up prospects for Roy Halladay.

[Olympic Fan]

As a Yankee fan, I can only wish an ironic "good luck" to the Red Sox is they tie up $82 million to sign a sore-armed (who hasn't been able to pitch 180 innings in either of the last two seasons) pitcher.

Smells like our Carl Pavano signing to me.

This isn't a sour grapes post -- I'm on record as opposing the Yankees' pursuit of Lackey for the reasons posted above.

As for Halladay, I'm also opposed because he would not only cost prospects, but would require what amounts to free agent money to keep him beyond one year. I wouldn't mind giving up one or the other (hey, it's not my money), but not both.

That said, what I'm hearing from Yankee sites and reporters is that the Yanks will put together a three-player package for Toronto. It will center around Jesus Montera, the best prospect in their farm system. He's major-league ready with the bat, but a long way from ready as a catcher. He could play in the bigs next season as a 1B or a DH, but it doesn't look like the Yankees have room for him at those spots.

Another part of the Yankee offer is likely to be Melky Cabrera, a good, but not great young switch-hitting OF. He'll be expendable if (when?) the Yankees re-sign Damon.

The third player in the deal is likely to be Chamberlain or Hughes. Both are talented young pitchers that the Yankees haven't been able to decide whether to turn into starters or relievers.

If that does turn out to be the package, then Halladay would add a lot more to the 2010 team than Montera/Cabrera/Chamberlain or Hughes could offer -- at the cost of giving up the long-term potential of Montera and the young pitcher.

As I said, it's a deal I'd rather not make. Personally, I'd like to see the Yankees re-sign Damon for two years, sign Chapman, the free agent Cuban defector, and otherwise sit tight. I think the Yankees have more talent in the minors than any other team (especially in the pitching department), but it's not major league ready yet (Austin Jackson, who went to Detroit in the Granderson trade, was the most ready prospect in the system, but he was generally rated the 10th-15th best prospect overall).

I'd just as soon wait for some of that talent to mature rather than tying up money and roster spots on fragile, aging players.

[InSpades]

I think signing Lackey would be a good move for the Red Sox, assuming it's for a reasonable amount and # of years. I think more of a priority is an outfielder but maybe they disagree? They'd have a nice rotation w/ Beckett, Bucholz, Lackey, Dice-K and whoever is the 5th starter.

I hope Halladay goes to the Mets. I really don't want the Yankees to trade for him. It's very difficult to build a team w/ only $20M players and if the Yankees get Halladay that is kind of what they will be doing. You need guys who are making good contributions and not getting paid millions of dollars (guys like Joba and Hughes and hopefully eventually Montero). I'd much rather see the Yankees sign Lackey than trade for Halladay.

[bluebear]

They'd have a nice rotation w/ Beckett, Bucholz, Lackey, Dice-K and whoever is the 5th starter.
.

Lester...

[bluebear]

What up now, itches!

Red Sox may sign Lackey.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4741437

Better than giving up prospects for Roy Halladay.

Especially if they use those prospects to bring in another big bat. I'm still hoping (wishful thinking likely) that the trade of lowell (if it goes through) and the saving of prospects will translate into a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

[bluebear]

Looks like Lackey to the Sox is a done deal...and Halladay to Phils in 3 team deal..

[YourLandlord]

As a Yankee fan, I can only wish an ironic "good luck" to the Red Sox is they tie up $82 million to sign a sore-armed (who hasn't been able to pitch 180 innings in either of the last two seasons) pitcher.

Smells like our Carl Pavano signing to me.


Dude, are you serious?

You conveniently ignore the FIVE (5) SEASONS before that where he had 200 innings (okay, 198 1/3 one of those years). 7 straight years averaging 199 innings is the epitome of durable.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5203

[SoCalDukeFan]

Phillies get Halladay.
Lee to Seattle.
Blue Jays get prospeects.

Evidently Lee would not renew contract and give the Phils a break and Halladay will.

Upgrade for the Phillies or not? Lee was great for them.

SoCal

[jimsumner]

Lackey has had relatively minor arm problems the last two seasons. He pitched 176 innings last season and added 19.2 innings in the post-season, with a 2.29 ERA. I could live with that.

Signing Damon doesn't help much of they don't sign Matsui or another bat. Damon at DH, Cabrera at LF, and Granderson at CF is not an upgrade over last season. Will they move on Holliday or Bay?

And please, no DeRosa, no Ben Sheets, no Eric Bedard. Stop gaps for middle-revenue teams that can't afford better.

I like that the Yankees are keeping Montero. But the Yankees are an old team and they seem very content to sit back and get older. Seems like a risky recipe to me.

[Olympic Fan]

Dude, are you serious?

You conveniently ignore the FIVE (5) SEASONS before that where he had 200 innings (okay, 198 1/3 one of those years). 7 straight years averaging 199 innings is the epitome of durable.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5203

Dude, if you're happy with him ... fine.

I'm not ignoring the five years between 2003 and 2007, when Lackey was a durable starter averaging 200-plus innings. If this were the 2007-08 offseason, I'd have pushed hard for the Yankees to pursue him.

But when pitchers start to have arm trouble, it's often -- maybe usually -- a cumulative thing. You can average in all the years when he was healthy all you want. Lackey has had arm trouble in each of the last two years. Will that get better or worse? History suggests it will grow worse ... the Red Sox are betting big money that it will get better.

Go back and look at Carl Pavano ... he threw 201 and 222 innings in the two years before he signed with New York. True, he had arm problems back in 2001, but he was over that, right? Well, no -- he ended up pitching 145 innings in the four years he was with the Yankees.

Or take Mike Hampton, a horse that averaged 220 innings between 1997-2001. He had some minor arm problems in 2002 and dropped to 178 innings (still more than Lackey has thrown in either of the last two seasons). I'm sure the Braves averaged his questionable year in with all those healthy ones when they picked up his huge contract from the Rockies. And they got two useful years (14 wins and 190 innings; 13 wins and 172 innings ) before he broke down completely. For the last three years of his contract, they paid him huge money ($14 million a year) for a grand total of eight wins and 145 innings.

The Red Sox have committed five years to a sore-armed pitcher. We'll see how that plays out.

As for the Yankees, Jim and I have gone back and fourth on this. I agree that the Yankees have to get younger, but I think that will be accomplished by waiting for all the studs in the minors to mature -- or spending our free agent money wisely on real studs and not a guy like Lackey, who's going to be overpaid because he's the best player in a weak market.

The plan is for Damon to play 100 games in the outfield and DH maybe 60 times. Posada might go 80 at catcher and 80 at DH. That leaves another 20 DH games for A-Roid and Jeter to rest. That's why Matsui had to go -- he could only DH and his presence, while welcome, would have ruined any chance of using the DH position to protect the team's older, aging stars.

The age issue basically comes down to Damon, Posada and Jeter in the field and Pettite and Rivera on the mound. I know the Bob Howsom theory -- better to dump a star a year too early than too late. But I like riding my horse until it breaks down -- those old guys are coming off great individual years (Jeter and Rivera, especially, were perhaps the best in the game at their positions last year). I'm willing to stick with them and see what happens. I wouldn't mind adding a couple of mid-level signees (I like Derosa ... don't like Sheets) at the right price to hold the line until the likes of Montera, Romine and Dunn and the rest are ready.

And the Yankees haven't really stood pat. They've essentially traded Matsui for Granderson -- that improves the defense and makes the team younger.

FWIW: I want to see the whole three-way deal between the Blue Jays, Phillies and Mariners. I don't understand what the Phillies are getting out of the deal -- I mean, Halladay is a great pitcher, but so is Lee.

Over the last two years, Halladay has been maybe 2 percent better -- his ERA is 2.84 to 2.87 ... he's pitched 31 more innings ... he's got one more win.

But he's three years older than Lee and makes a lot more money $14 million to $6 million last season (and Lee is under contract one year longer).

I understand what the Mariners are getting ... and I understand the Blue Jays are getting some quality prospects (mostly from Seattle). I just don't understand how trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay is that much of an upgrade???

[InSpades]

I thought Lee and Halladay both had 1 more year left on their deals, no? So it basically came down to trading Lee (who they thought they'd lose after 2010) for Halladay (who they could sign to an extension). I can't really fault them for doing that. Of course I also don't think it's an upgrade. Lee is younger and was basically unhittable in the postseason.

As a Yankees fan I'm pretty happy with the way things turned out. The Phillies didn't improve. The team that improved the most is the Mariners and they weren't really a contender beforehand. You knew Boston was going to spend somewhere but they haven't bolstered their lineup which I think leaves them still a step behind the Yankees (probably more to come from them though). Now if the Yanks can sign Damon and get Chapman I will be very happy.

[ncexnyc]

coming out of Boston is one of desperation on the part of Theo and the rest of the Beantown Bubbas. Theo has always been pretty smart about keeping things about business, but this move goes away from his usual businesslike approach to the game. Here's a guy who let Damon and Pedro walk, but now he's suddenly throwing out a 5 year deal for a pitcher, who may or may not have issues with his arm.

I was under the impression the Sox needed a bat, but as I've posted before I thought they could make do with what they had. Does this signing mean Bay and Holliday are now out of the picture? Can't see the Sox spending much more money and any bat they can trade for will cost them dearly in prospects.

Looks like Seattle is serious about making a run at the Angels and so far they've managed to make two big splashes this winter. Arte needs to get going or his club will no longer be the favorite out West. I look for the Angels to go after either Bay or Holliday big time.

I too question the Philly deal. Lee was an up and coming player who's really developed into a stud ace. He has shown he could handle the pressure of pitching in Philly and being on the biggest stage. Roy is older and stumbled a bit during the trade talk fiasco last year. How will he perform when he is under the pressure of the Philly fans? It's tough to say if this was a good deal since we don't know if Lee refused to talk extension or if his demands were way unreasonable, but a first glance it's about even.

The Yankees are sitting pretty right now. The Granderson trade put them squarely in the drivers seat with Damon and Matsui. JD is definitely my prefered play, as he can play the field, but if he gets a big head and insists on outlandish money or a longtime deal let him walk. I have faith that either Hughes or Joba will develop into a solid starter, my bets on Phil.

[ncexnyc]

I should do more reading prior to coming here. I see Arte has been paying attention to the moves being made in the Pacific Northwest. The Angels have signing Matsui and for a very reasonable amount of money.

I also see that the Sox landed Cameron, so I definitely don't see them making any further moves at this time.

[bluebear]

coming out of Boston is one of desperation on the part of Theo and the rest of the Beantown Bubbas. Theo has always been pretty smart about keeping things about business, but this move goes away from his usual businesslike approach to the game. Here's a guy who let Damon and Pedro walk, but now he's suddenly throwing out a 5 year deal for a pitcher, who may or may not have issues with his arm.

I was under the impression the Sox needed a bat, but as I've posted before I thought they could make do with what they had. Does this signing mean Bay and Holliday are now out of the picture? Can't see the Sox spending much more money and any bat they can trade for will cost them dearly in prospects..

Can't disagree more..I'm sure the sox did their homework with regards to Lackey and his arm and wouldn't have made the deal otherwise. Lackey gives them some protection in case they can't sign Beckett next year and allows them to float Buchholz in a trade for another bat. At the very least, they have the best rotation in the AL on paper. No real comparison to Damon and Pedro who both needed to go for various reasons.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow ... the Red Sox sign Mike Cameron to play left field.

What a move ... in the last three years, they've gone from Manny Ramirez to Jason Bay to Mike Cameron.

Theo Epstein is a genius.

So next year, he'll man left field with a 37-year-old outfielder with a career 107 OPS plus. No Bay. No Holliday. Heck, no Jermaine Dye or Mark Derosa.

Mike Cameron ... wow ... just wow. If I were a Red Sox fan, I can see trying to make the best of overpaying Lackey (as I said in another context, it's not my money). If his arm does hold up, he's a very solid addition the rotation. But this one would leave me shaking my head.

As for the Angels signing Matsui, I understand that it's a sign they don't re-sign Vlad. I love Godzilla, but is that an upgrade. Losing Figgins, Lackey and Guererro -- while your division rival is upgrading across the board, that can't be a good sign.

And I'm still confused about the Phillies. Okay, I can understand that Lee's contract will be tough to renegotiate ... but your starting point is $6 million a year. You could double it and still be paying him less than the $15 million that Halladay will be getting on the last year of his contract. And you think it will be easier to cut a long-term deal with a guy making $14 million-plus than a guy making $6 million???

And the net result of the deal is neutral. I don't get it.

[InSpades]

And I'm still confused about the Phillies. Okay, I can understand that Lee's contract will be tough to renegotiate ... but your starting point is $6 million a year. You could double it and still be paying him less than the $15 million that Halladay will be getting on the last year of his contract. And you think it will be easier to cut a long-term deal with a guy making $14 million-plus than a guy making $6 million???

And the net result of the deal is neutral. I don't get it.

Who cares what they were making? Cliff Lee would laugh at you if you offered him $12M a year. He's going to look for Sabathia type money when he hits free agency and if he has a good year next year then who's to argue with him? Everyone is reporting that the Halladay extension is a done deal.

[bluebear]

Wow ... the Red Sox sign Mike Cameron to play left field.

What a move ... in the last three years, they've gone from Manny Ramirez to Jason Bay to Mike Cameron.

Theo Epstein is a genius.

So next year, he'll man left field with a 37-year-old outfielder with a career 107 OPS plus. No Bay. No Holliday. Heck, no Jermaine Dye or Mark Derosa.

Mike Cameron ... wow ... just wow. If I were a Red Sox fan, I can see trying to make the best of overpaying Lackey (as I said in another context, it's not my money). If his arm does hold up, he's a very solid addition the rotation. But this one would leave me shaking my head.

.

I'm not sure the Sox are done tweaking their outfield at this point but assuming they are, this is not the head scratcher you depict..Holliday would have been my first choice but I'm not sure they could get him. Bay is better than Cameron offensively but worse defensively. Cameron has decent power and his average is only a little lower than Bay's. If they can bring in another bat in the infield, then their lineup is about the same as last year but they have dramatically improved their defense and pitching...Before signing Cameron, Hermida was their starting left fielder..

[SoCalDukeFan]

Dude, if you're happy with him ... fine.

I'm not ignoring the five years between 2003 and 2007, when Lackey was a durable starter averaging 200-plus innings. If this were the 2007-08 offseason, I'd have pushed hard for the Yankees to pursue him.

But when pitchers start to have arm trouble, it's often -- maybe usually -- a cumulative thing. You can average in all the years when he was healthy all you want. Lackey has had arm trouble in each of the last two years. Will that get better or worse? History suggests it will grow worse ... the Red Sox are betting big money that it will get better.

Go back and look at Carl Pavano ... he threw 201 and 222 innings in the two years before he signed with New York. True, he had arm problems back in 2001, but he was over that, right? Well, no -- he ended up pitching 145 innings in the four years he was with the Yankees.

Or take Mike Hampton, a horse that averaged 220 innings between 1997-2001. He had some minor arm problems in 2002 and dropped to 178 innings (still more than Lackey has thrown in either of the last two seasons). I'm sure the Braves averaged his questionable year in with all those healthy ones when they picked up his huge contract from the Rockies. And they got two useful years (14 wins and 190 innings; 13 wins and 172 innings ) before he broke down completely. For the last three years of his contract, they paid him huge money ($14 million a year) for a grand total of eight wins and 145 innings.

The Red Sox have committed five years to a sore-armed pitcher. We'll see how that plays out.

As for the Yankees, Jim and I have gone back and fourth on this. I agree that the Yankees have to get younger, but I think that will be accomplished by waiting for all the studs in the minors to mature -- or spending our free agent money wisely on real studs and not a guy like Lackey, who's going to be overpaid because he's the best player in a weak market.

The plan is for Damon to play 100 games in the outfield and DH maybe 60 times. Posada might go 80 at catcher and 80 at DH. That leaves another 20 DH games for A-Roid and Jeter to rest. That's why Matsui had to go -- he could only DH and his presence, while welcome, would have ruined any chance of using the DH position to protect the team's older, aging stars.

The age issue basically comes down to Damon, Posada and Jeter in the field and Pettite and Rivera on the mound. I know the Bob Howsom theory -- better to dump a star a year too early than too late. But I like riding my horse until it breaks down -- those old guys are coming off great individual years (Jeter and Rivera, especially, were perhaps the best in the game at their positions last year). I'm willing to stick with them and see what happens. I wouldn't mind adding a couple of mid-level signees (I like Derosa ... don't like Sheets) at the right price to hold the line until the likes of Montera, Romine and Dunn and the rest are ready.

And the Yankees haven't really stood pat. They've essentially traded Matsui for Granderson -- that improves the defense and makes the team younger.

FWIW: I want to see the whole three-way deal between the Blue Jays, Phillies and Mariners. I don't understand what the Phillies are getting out of the deal -- I mean, Halladay is a great pitcher, but so is Lee.

Over the last two years, Halladay has been maybe 2 percent better -- his ERA is 2.84 to 2.87 ... he's pitched 31 more innings ... he's got one more win.

But he's three years older than Lee and makes a lot more money $14 million to $6 million last season (and Lee is under contract one year longer).

I understand what the Mariners are getting ... and I understand the Blue Jays are getting some quality prospects (mostly from Seattle). I just don't understand how trading Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay is that much of an upgrade???

According to wikipedia Halladay is less than a year and a half older than Lee.

No matter how this turns I gotta give Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. an A for Effort. He gets a front line pitcher signed for several years. He gives up prospects but he gets prospects back.

If Amaro Jr. was only concerned about next year, then he would probably keep Lee. Phillies seem to be a team trying each year to improve.

The deal also shows how the Yankees continue to wreck baseball. By overpaying for CC Sabathia they raise the bar for evey quality pitcher. Baseball needs a salary cap and the sooner the better.

SoCal

[YourLandlord]

Wow ... the Red Sox sign Mike Cameron to play left field.

What a move ... in the last three years, they've gone from Manny Ramirez to Jason Bay to Mike Cameron.

Theo Epstein is a genius.

So next year, he'll man left field with a 37-year-old outfielder with a career 107 OPS plus. No Bay. No Holliday. Heck, no Jermaine Dye or Mark Derosa.

Mike Cameron ... wow ... just wow. If I were a Red Sox fan, I can see trying to make the best of overpaying Lackey (as I said in another context, it's not my money). If his arm does hold up, he's a very solid addition the rotation. But this one would leave me shaking my head.

As for the Angels signing Matsui, I understand that it's a sign they don't re-sign Vlad. I love Godzilla, but is that an upgrade. Losing Figgins, Lackey and Guererro -- while your division rival is upgrading across the board, that can't be a good sign.

And I'm still confused about the Phillies. Okay, I can understand that Lee's contract will be tough to renegotiate ... but your starting point is $6 million a year. You could double it and still be paying him less than the $15 million that Halladay will be getting on the last year of his contract. And you think it will be easier to cut a long-term deal with a guy making $14 million-plus than a guy making $6 million???

And the net result of the deal is neutral. I don't get it.

wow. you do realize that not every single team has the resources to simply sign a hall of famer or even an all star to every position like your yankees?

some teams have to make do with league average at some positions so they can have better players at others.

the tone of your post speaks volumes about your sense of entitlement as a yankees fan. frankly, it is disgusting.

and Halladay has SAID he is open to a medium term deal in Philly, while Lee wants to test free agency and will get a huge contract.

SO, the Phillies go from 1 year of Lee (and then either a) lose him or b) have to spend megabucks for mega years) to several years of Halladay.

How is that a neutral trade?

They're getting a better pitcher for a longer time (have to assume Lee leaves).

[jimsumner]

"The plan is for Damon to play 100 games in the outfield and DH maybe 60 times. Posada might go 80 at catcher and 80 at DH"

Well, Damon is asking for $13 mill for four years. That's toxic. Assuming he and his agents come back to terra firma, the Yanks have a poor defensive LF 100 games a year and an average DH 60 games per year.

And who catches those other 80 games? Cervelli? Romine is a year away, Montero maybe longer, maybe never.

Maybe Montero can DH this year. But I wouldn't count on it.

Cashman wants to upgrade his pitching. How? None of the pitching options out there excite me. If Lackey is a gamble, what are Sheets, Bedard, Duchscherer, Wang? Piniero wants four years. The Yanks may be interested in Matt Capps, who was released last week by the Pirates. Maybe he can be the 8th inning guy and Hughes and Chamberlain both start. But Capps had an ERA over 5 last season in the NL East. Ouch.

And the Red Sox have the best offer on the table for Chapman. So, unless the Yanks ratchet up the interest level on Holliday or Bay, we're looking at spare parts here.

Maybe the youngsters all mature at the same time and we have Jeter/Rivera/Posada/Petitte/Bernie Williams part two. But it seems like Cashman is rolling the dice.

[Olympic Fan]

wow. you do realize that not every single team has the resources to simply sign a hall of famer or even an all star to every position like your yankees?

some teams have to make do with league average at some positions so they can have better players at others.

the tone of your post speaks volumes about your sense of entitlement as a yankees fan. frankly, it is disgusting.

This is funny, coming from a Red Sox fan -- the Yankees are the only team you guys can't outspend. I'm sure all the Pirate and Brave and Padre fans appreciate the Red Sox joining the ranks of "teams that have to make do with the major league average at some positions." Frankly, I find your attempts to play the outraged purist equally disgusting.

Of course, the Red Sox have only been mega spenders for the last decade or so. I guess they still have a lot to learn about throwing big money around. You'll find out what we found out in the 1980s and again in the early part of this decade -- merely spending a lot of money does not guarantee results. It's nice to have the money to spend, but you'd better spend it wisely.

I don't see why being a Yankee fan disqualifies me from stating an opinion as to who got their money's worth and who overspent. I have some Yankee friends who wanted to pursue Cameron -- believe me, if we had signed him for $13 million over two years, I'd be screaming even louder about that.

And if you follow my posts (you must, since you respond to most of them), you'll notice that I'm not an advocate of spending huge sums to get an all-star at every position. I consistently opposed the Yankee pursuit of Lackey, Holliday and Halladay. My only aim was the re-sign two of our three big free agents at our own team (Damon and Pettite ... but not Matsui). I like that Granderson trade -- but that's what it is -- a trade, not a big money free agent signing.

Granderson actually will make about as much over the next two years as the Red Sox will pay for Cameron (about $13 million). And while Cameron will be a defensive upgrade over Bay, that would mean something if we were talking about shortstop, second base or even centerfield -- the defensive difference in left field is so miniscule it won't come close to covering the huge offensive gap between the two (there was only a .17 gap in BA, but Bay's OBP was 42 points higher and his SLUG was 85 points higher).

Again, my problems with the Red Sox spending money is not that they're spending, but that they're spending it unwisely. When you commit $13 million to an aging mediocrity like Cameron and $52 million to a sore-armed pitcher like Lackey, IMHO, that's a waste of money that would be better spent in other places (I wonder if $65 million over the next five years -- which the Red Sox are committing to Lackey and Cameron -- might not be enough to get Holliday?)

As for the Lee vs. Halladay debate -- let's see what Lee ends up signing his long-term deal for. If he ends up getting more than Halladay, then that would help justify the deal in my mind. But I'm willing to bet that he ends up with less -- unless he refuses to sign an extention with Seattle and puts himself on the free agent market next year (in which case, the Mariners will have paid a lot to rent him for one year).

[InSpades]

Are you really concerned about the Yankees for next year? They won 103 games! Then won the World Series without having to go to a deciding game in the postseason. If they do nothing but keep their team as good as it was last year then they will probably win the World Series again.

Johnny Damon is not an average hitter no matter where you put him. He was top 50 in the majors in OPS last year. I agree that giving him 4 years is insane, but hopefully they will come back to reality and Johnny can take a 2 year deal. If not then the Yankees will have to look elsewhere and find a bat.

What AL teams have a better top 6 in their lineup than Jeter, Granderson, Teixeira, A-Rod, Posada, Cano? How many teams have a rotation better than Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Joba? How many teams have a better bullpen than Hughes to Rivera?

The Yankees are 1 more bat and a 5th starter away from being set for next year. How many teams are that close?

[jimsumner]

Johnny Damon is 36. I'd be astonished if he duplicates last year's stats. Ever again.

He's an above average hitter for a left fielder but a below average fielder. His arm is a definite liability. As a DH in 2010, I wouldn't expect him to be much above average.

Maybe I'm making a mistake assuming that a player on the wrong side of 35 is going to show a decline. But I think not.


As Casey used to say, the trick is knowing when to say hello to a player and when to say goodbye. Maybe it's not time to say goodbye to Damon, but it ain't far either.

Questions for OF. Does Lowe have anything left in the tank? Can he retire AL East hitters? Should the Yanks go after him?

[YourLandlord]

But I'm willing to bet that he ends up with less -- unless he refuses to sign an extention with Seattle and puts himself on the free agent market next year (in which case, the Mariners will have paid a lot to rent him for one year).

Lee has stated this publicly.

This is why the Phillies traded him -- Roy Halladay agreed to work out an extension with the team he was traded to instead of become involved in a free-agent bidding war -- which Lee will provide next year. You just proved your own point. By trading "equal" pitchers, the Phillies get to keep one of them for longer.

[SoCalDukeFan]

If Lee has an off year then he might not get the contract next year that he could have had now.

If he has a great year then the sky could be the limit.

I think Seattle will try to sign him during season.

I do like it from the Phillies perspective. Evidently they also get cash from Toronto so Lee and Halladay are about a wash this year moneywise.

SoCal

[rasputin]

This is funny, coming from a Red Sox fan -- the Yankees are the only team you guys can't outspend. I'm sure all the Pirate and Brave and Padre fans appreciate the Red Sox joining the ranks of "teams that have to make do with the major league average at some positions." Frankly, I find your attempts to play the outraged purist equally disgusting.

Of course, the Red Sox have only been mega spenders for the last decade or so. I guess they still have a lot to learn about throwing big money around. You'll find out what we found out in the 1980s and again in the early part of this decade -- merely spending a lot of money does not guarantee results. It's nice to have the money to spend, but you'd better spend it wisely.

I don't see why being a Yankee fan disqualifies me from stating an opinion as to who got their money's worth and who overspent. I have some Yankee friends who wanted to pursue Cameron -- believe me, if we had signed him for $13 million over two years, I'd be screaming even louder about that.

And if you follow my posts (you must, since you respond to most of them), you'll notice that I'm not an advocate of spending huge sums to get an all-star at every position. I consistently opposed the Yankee pursuit of Lackey, Holliday and Halladay. My only aim was the re-sign two of our three big free agents at our own team (Damon and Pettite ... but not Matsui). I like that Granderson trade -- but that's what it is -- a trade, not a big money free agent signing.

Granderson actually will make about as much over the next two years as the Red Sox will pay for Cameron (about $13 million). And while Cameron will be a defensive upgrade over Bay, that would mean something if we were talking about shortstop, second base or even centerfield -- the defensive difference in left field is so miniscule it won't come close to covering the huge offensive gap between the two (there was only a .17 gap in BA, but Bay's OBP was 42 points higher and his SLUG was 85 points higher).

Again, my problems with the Red Sox spending money is not that they're spending, but that they're spending it unwisely. When you commit $13 million to an aging mediocrity like Cameron and $52 million to a sore-armed pitcher like Lackey, IMHO, that's a waste of money that would be better spent in other places (I wonder if $65 million over the next five years -- which the Red Sox are committing to Lackey and Cameron -- might not be enough to get Holliday?)

As for the Lee vs. Halladay debate -- let's see what Lee ends up signing his long-term deal for. If he ends up getting more than Halladay, then that would help justify the deal in my mind. But I'm willing to bet that he ends up with less -- unless he refuses to sign an extention with Seattle and puts himself on the free agent market next year (in which case, the Mariners will have paid a lot to rent him for one year).

Easy now, OFan. Next thing you know they'll be posting pictures of a ten-year-old kid in Yankees gear crying.

[jimsumner]

The Yankees appear to be closing in on Nick Johnson as their new DH.

A great OBP, when he can stay healthy. DHs don't get injured, do they?

[SoCalDukeFan]

The Yankees appear to be closing in on Nick Johnson as their new DH.

A great OBP, when he can stay healthy. DHs don't get injured, do they?

Can they fit it into their payroll?

SoCal

[BlueDevilBaby]

The Yankees appear to be closing in on Nick Johnson as their new DH.

A great OBP, when he can stay healthy. DHs don't get injured, do they?

Bummer. I was hoping my Nats could resign him. If it had to be anywhere else, I don't mind seeing him return to my Yankees. I agree his defense has been a little subpar for him. After watching him for most of last year, he defintely cannot stretch at 1st anymore. But I still love how he plays the game.

[Blue in the Face]

The Yankees appear to be closing in on Nick Johnson as their new DH.

A great OBP, when he can stay healthy. DHs don't get injured, do they?
NJ can surely find a way. But I think this a good signing for the yanks. He really is a pretty productive hitter, it's not a lot of money, and he should have better health playing half the game.

[ncexnyc]

A tough move to figure out. You're exchanging one gimpy kneed DH, in Matsui, for another injury prone DH in Johnson.

Sorry, but I'd rather have paid Matsui the extra milllion for the pop in his bat that he brings to the table.

[Olympic Fan]

A tough move to figure out. You're exchanging one gimpy kneed DH, in Matsui, for another injury prone DH in Johnson.

Sorry, but I'd rather have paid Matsui the extra milllion for the pop in his bat that he brings to the table.

While I agree with the last statement, I think you've missed the order of the Yankee actions.

First, they saw the acquisition of Grandserson as the replacement for Matsui. They traded a sore-kneed lefty hitter with some pop who could only DH for an above-average defensive, lefty centerfielder with some pop. A major upgrade, except that Matsui is much better against lefties than Granderson (very few LH hitters in baseball history have hit lefties better than Godzilla).

The plan was to sign Damon to play left and remain the No. 2 hitter behind Jeter. But he is old and sore-kneed and would have needed to play a lot of games at DH. For that reason -- and because Posada is at an age where he can't catch every day and needs to play a bunch at DH -- the plan was not to sign a DH ... to use the spot to give Girardi some flexibility in his lineups.

But Damon's demands were absurdly high and -- surprise, surprise -- the big spending Yankees refused to pay $13 million over four years for a guy who would be useless in 2-3 years. They actually made IMHO a rational financial decision.

Johnson then became the best option as a No. 2 hitter (no legs, but a GREAT OBP). And he has to play DH. But since you don't have Damon, you don't have to hold 40-50 games for him at DH.

In hindsight, I'd rather have kept Matsui (who was willing to sign a one-year-deal) and let Damon go, then not sign Johnson. But by the time they learned that Damon's demands were outrageous (we'll see where he goes to get a four-year deal in the $13 million range), it was too late to keep Godzilla.

Essentially, it comes down to CF Granderson and DH Johnson for LF Damon and DH Matsui. The Yankees got younger (as Jim Sumner wants) and made a major defensive upgrade ... I think they lost a little -- but only a little -- offensively.

Funny, but while I don't know the final details of the Nick Johnson contract, it looks like the Yankees might actually pay less for Granderson/Johnson than they did for Matsui/Damon.

What will be interesting now is to see if the Yankees pursue another outfielder or if they'll be content to go into next season with Granderson, Swisher and Cabrera as starters, backed up by Gardner (Austin Jackson, traded in the Granderson deal, was the only OF in the Yankee system who is close to ready... although they did pick up a kid from the Dodgers in the Rule 5 draft that they'll look at this spring).

Back to Halladay-Lee ... I just listened to a conversation with Lee last night in which he said he was disappointed to be traded and that he was hoping to sign a long-term deal with the Phillies. Again, this is what bothers me about the deal, especially since I learned that the Phils gave up Kyle Drabek, the best pitcher in their system and a guy that was supposedly untouchable, to make the deal. I'll concede that signing Halladay to a long-term deal might have been EASIER, but Lee was still open to a deal and I'm still betting he'll be cheaper than $20 million a year.

And there's no doubt in my mind that I'd rather have Lee and Drabek than just Halladay (the prospects the Phillies ended up with in the deal aren't the same class).

If the deal was made to win right away, then I don't see much of an upgrade -- the Lee of the last two years is right there with the Halladay of the last two years (plus he's already done it in Philly). If you're talking long-term, then you've traded the younger player for an older one and given up your best pitching prospect in return.

FWIW, I keep hearing that the Braves are talking to the Angels about trading Derek Lowe for Juan Rivera, a pretty good OF bat. In addition, he's cheap and if they can dump Lowe's bloated contract, they might be able to put together a package for ther Padres' Gonzales at first (LaRoche looks more and more like a lost cause).

Sounds good to me.

[ncexnyc]

I'm not sure it's valid to construct a timeline of events after the fact and then say this is what the Yankees planned. It's akin to armchair quarterbacking the day after the game.

I would suggest that the move to acquire CG wasn't one to free-up Matsui, but rather several players, which enabled the Yanks to explore several options.

The deal to unload Bruney is another of those moves that makes one wonder what were they thinking, until you look beyond the deal itself. The kid they got in return has been described as having the mentality of a hockey player and someone with some pop in his bat. I'd take this to mean that Melky and Gardner were being freed up to be part of a bigger package.

I think we can both agree that the Yanks were interested in Halliday and that the price to land him would have been high. Once the Phillies landed him, whatever plans the Yankees had fell by the wayside.

[JasonEvans]

Back to Halladay-Lee ... I just listened to a conversation with Lee last night in which he said he was disappointed to be traded and that he was hoping to sign a long-term deal with the Phillies. Again, this is what bothers me about the deal, especially since I learned that the Phils gave up Kyle Drabek, the best pitcher in their system and a guy that was supposedly untouchable, to make the deal. I'll concede that signing Halladay to a long-term deal might have been EASIER, but Lee was still open to a deal and I'm still betting he'll be cheaper than $20 million a year.

And there's no doubt in my mind that I'd rather have Lee and Drabek than just Halladay (the prospects the Phillies ended up with in the deal aren't the same class).

I 100% concur that this was a strange trade by the Phils. Just a few months ago, they refused to give up Drabek in a deal to get Halladay, so they traded some other top prospects and got Lee. Now, they give up Drabek to get Halladay but they also give up Lee. Can anyone explain this to me?

The spin from Philadelphia is that reliever Phillippe Aumont, the minor leaguer they got from Seattle, is just as good a prospect as Drabek. Ummmm, on what planet? Aumont is still young, just turned 21, but he was 1-4 with an ERA over 5 at AA last year. He's got a live arm and a lot of strikeouts, but he's a reliever. Unless he becomes a stud closer someday, he's not worth as much as a future high-quality starter like Drabek (who went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.19 in high-A and AA last season).

--Jason "of course, the Phils making a bad deal is fine with me-- I'm a Braves fan ;) " Evans

[JasonEvans]

FWIW, I keep hearing that the Braves are talking to the Angels about trading Derek Lowe for Juan Rivera, a pretty good OF bat. In addition, he's cheap and if they can dump Lowe's bloated contract, they might be able to put together a package for ther Padres' Gonzales at first (LaRoche looks more and more like a lost cause).

Sounds good to me.

The talk is that the Angels would do the deal in a heartbeat if the Braves would include Javy Vasquez instead of Lowe. Vasquez has a clause in his contract that prevents him from being traded to a West Coast team because he is from Puerto Rico and does not want to be that far from his family.

There is also talk of Lowe to the Yankees for Nick Swisher. If the Braves could do that deal, I'd dance a jig. Lowe's contract is poison at this point. He was godawful the second half of last year.

Of course, he was really good the first half of last year and it would hardly be shocking if he were to have a good season wherever he plays next year. That said, the Braves need his salary to pay for some offense. They are probably the only team in the majors that has an abundance of high-quality starting pitching.

--Jason "I'd prefer Swisher to Rivera, Rivera has not exactly been injury-free so far in his career" Evans

[ncexnyc]

Here's an interesting take on what has transpired recently in Baseball.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tim_marchman/12/18/marchman.hotstove/1.html

[Olympic Fan]

There is also talk of Lowe to the Yankees for Nick Swisher. If the Braves could do that deal, I'd dance a jig. Lowe's contract is poison at this point. He was godawful the second half of last year.

--Jason "I'd prefer Swisher to Rivera, Rivera has not exactly been injury-free so far in his career" Evans

As a Yankee fan, I'm baffled by this proposed deal (and I've heard the same rumblings). While Lowe would be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter in New York (and I don't care if he's overpaid ... it's not my money), Swisher has been an extremely valuable player for the Yankees. Right now, he's set as an everyday starter in the outfield, probably in right. In fact, he's the team's No. 2 outfielder (behind Granderson). If he's dealt for a pitcher, then the Yankees have to scramble to find a new OF -- I can't see them starting the season with Granderson, Cabrera and Gardner (with the kid from the Dodgers -- Hoffman? -- as the fourth OFer).

I'd be surprised if the Yankees take on Lowe's bloated contract AND spent big money on a free agent OF. But who knows?

I think there's some pressure on the Angels to make some kind of deal for a starting pitcher. After losing Lackey and Figgins (and essentially trading Vlad for Matsui), while Seattle has added Figgins and Lee, the Angels need to take some action to protect their command of the AL West.

And, ncexnyc, I never suggested that my timeline represented any kind of plan for the Yankees -- just an explanation of how they got trapped into needing Johnson. The plan was to get Granderson, let Matsui go and re-sign Damon. The first two parts of the plan were in place before the third part blew up in their face. The pursuit of Johnson was a response to that.

It's not what I would have wished going into the off-season, but I think it was a nice recovery to a bad situation.

PS I keep reading that the Red Sox have the best offer on the table for Chapman. As a Yankee fan, I will be crushed if we don't wind up with the kid. I just hope Cashman has been working behind the scenes (as he has done very well in the last two years) to get this done.

[YmoBeThere]

I think there's some pressure on the Angels to make some kind of deal for a starting pitcher. After losing Lackey and Figgins (and essentially trading Vlad for Matsui), while Seattle has added Figgins and Lee, the Angels need to take some action to protect their command of the AL West.

The Mariners blew up whatever momentum they had by trading for Bradley. I don't know who the bigger bonehead is Hendry or Zduriencik? Hendry for the 3 year contract or Zduriencik for taking it on? Perhaps Wakamatsu can spin Bradley around while restraining him and there goes the other ACL.

[bluebear]

PS I keep reading that the Red Sox have the best offer on the table for Chapman. As a Yankee fan, I will be crushed if we don't wind up with the kid. I just hope Cashman has been working behind the scenes (as he has done very well in the last two years) to get this done.

I've heard the same but the offer came in before Chapman switched agents..As a sox fan, I have very little confidence in the sox landing him over the yankees..

In other interesting Red Sox news..The Lowell deal has apparently fallen through. I'll be interested in to see how this changes things. It's no secret that they are interested in landing Adrian Gonzalez and have shown some interest in Beltre. Financially, this matters little as the sox were set to pay most of Lowell's salary. How will Lowell readjust to returning to Boston..he is a real stand up guy but was already a little upset last year when the sox pursued Teixeira..

[SoCalDukeFan]

I 100% concur that this was a strange trade by the Phils. Just a few months ago, they refused to give up Drabek in a deal to get Halladay, so they traded some other top prospects and got Lee. Now, they give up Drabek to get Halladay but they also give up Lee. Can anyone explain this to me?

The spin from Philadelphia is that reliever Phillippe Aumont, the minor leaguer they got from Seattle, is just as good a prospect as Drabek. Ummmm, on what planet? Aumont is still young, just turned 21, but he was 1-4 with an ERA over 5 at AA last year. He's got a live arm and a lot of strikeouts, but he's a reliever. Unless he becomes a stud closer someday, he's not worth as much as a future high-quality starter like Drabek (who went 12-3 with an ERA of 3.19 in high-A and AA last season).

--Jason "of course, the Phils making a bad deal is fine with me-- I'm a Braves fan ;) " Evans

I think that the Phillies GM Amaro wants to be in control. He tried to get Halladay at mid season last year but could not get the deal he wanted, so he went to Cleveland and got Lee. Lee is saying now how much he wanted to stay in Philly, but he and his agent were both at least posturing as to what kind of deal they wanted after next season - 6 or 7 years etc. So Amaro bit the bullet and got Halladay. He then trades Lee to restock the minor leagues with prospects. Only the principals know what was said regarding the deal Lee wanted.

Drabek has has Tommy John surgery once. The best player they gave up is the outfielder Brown who may be AL rookie of the year next year. But the Phillies don't have room for him next year at the major league level. The pitching prospects they got are prospects. They did get a center field prospect who might be major league ready in two years when Victorino is eligible for arbitration.

Phillies are betting the Cole Hamels and the bull pen revert to the 2008 form.

I hated that Lee is leaving. He just seemed like a great pitcher and the type of guy you wanted on your team.

SoCal (Phillies Fan in LA)

[YmoBeThere]

I've heard the same but the offer came in before Chapman switched agents..As a sox fan, I have very little confidence in the sox landing him over the yankees..

In other interesting Red Sox news..The Lowell deal has apparently fallen through. I'll be interested in to see how this changes things. It's no secret that they are interested in landing Adrian Gonzalez and have shown some interest in Beltre. Financially, this matters little as the sox were set to pay most of Lowell's salary. How will Lowell readjust to returning to Boston..he is a real stand up guy but was already a little upset last year when the sox pursued Teixeira..

Beltre...another Dodger/Mariner connected player(like Milton Bradley). Seems likely that his monster year in LA was steroid induced given the cast of characters at the time. His numbers in Seattle certainly returned to "normal" after that.

[SoCalDukeFan]

The Mariners blew up whatever momentum they had by trading for Bradley. I don't know who the bigger bonehead is Hendry or Zduriencik? Hendry for the 3 year contract or Zduriencik for taking it on? Perhaps Wakamatsu can spin Bradley around while restraining him and there goes the other ACL.

Anyone who spins Bradley should be Manager of the Year. Anyone who signed Bradley to a multi-year contract should be fired.

SoCal

[arydolphin]

There are a few other players involved, but it basically breaks down to the Yankees getting Javier Vazquez and the Braves getting Melky Cabrera. Vazquez goes straight into the rotation for the Yankees, and I'm guessing that Cabrera goes into left field for the Braves.

[Duvall]

There are a few other players involved, but it basically breaks down to the Yankees getting Javier Vazquez and the Braves getting Melky Cabrera. Vazquez goes straight into the rotation for the Yankees, and I'm guessing that Cabrera goes into left field for the Braves.

Melky Cabrera? People should be fired for this.

[YourLandlord]

Melky Cabrera? People should be fired for this.

the commissioners office should cancel this trade.

[Channing]

Melky Cabrera? People should be fired for this.

i was about to post - can anyone who watches the yankees comment on whether this is actually a decent upgrade, or is he no better than matt diaz? Was this just a salary dump by the braves?

[ncexnyc]

Melky Cabrera? People should be fired for this.

And what people would that be?

The trade is good for both sides. The Braves get a solid young player who's a very good defensive outfielder. Melky's offensive stats should also see a bump by moving to the NL. I don't think a 280 BA, 15-20 HR season isn't beyond reach. The Yankee get a pitcher for the back end of the rotation and a guy you can give you 200 innings.

[Blue in the Face]

The full trade is apparently Vaz and Boone Logan for Melky, Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. My understanding is that Vizcaino, only 18 and in Low-A this past year, is a reasonably well regarded prospect.

[Olympic Fan]

There are a few other players involved, but it basically breaks down to the Yankees getting Javier Vazquez and the Braves getting Melky Cabrera. Vazquez goes straight into the rotation for the Yankees, and I'm guessing that Cabrera goes into left field for the Braves.

While I am primarily a Yankee fan (since I was eight years old and first started following baseball), the Braves are my second team (getting TBS in the 1980s and having the Durham Bulls as a Brave farm club for most of the decade made them interesting to me).

Can I say in my dual capacity -- that short term, this is a terrible deal for the Braves and a great one for the Yankees. The only thing that saves it from being a disaster for the Braves are those "those other players involved" which could turn out to be a bonanza for Atlanta in the long run.

From what I've read, they're getting Mike Dunn -- a lefty pitcher who made his ML debut late last season and is so promising that Detroit's insistance that he be included in the Granderson deal almost screwed up that trade. He's a B-plus or A-minus prospect. Atlanta is also getting Arodys Viscaino, a 19-year-old righthander that some rated one of the top 5 players in the Yankee system (which is loaded). He's an A-prospect ... the only negative is that he's still very young and very far away from the majors. A lot can happen before a kid like that arrives (remember Brien Taylor).

Still, the Braves got two great young arms ... and Dunn should be ready to go in the bullpen this season.

Short-term, it's all Yankees. I love Cabrera, but he was a perfect as the fourth outfielder. The good -- he'll be 25 years old next season, he's a switchhitter, he has above-average speed and he's good enough defensively to do an adequate job in center if necessary (he'll be a GREAT defensive LFer). The bad -- he's not the corner bat the Braves need. He's a career .716 OPS (88 OPS plus) which is a decent number for a middle infielder, not a corner outfielder. He's come off one of his best years, but he was still just 99 OPS-plus. The best I can say as a Brave fan is that he's young enough to improve.

But to give up Vasquez ... wow. He was No. 4 in the NL Cy Young vote last year. He was unlucky on record (15-10), but a 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts in 219 innings. Plus, he's been in New York before ... in the head-to-head with the Red Sox, IMHO Vasquez >> Lackey ...

Financially, the Braves save a bit of money -- $11.5 mill for Vasquez ... $3 mill for Cabrera. Also, Boone Logan, going to the Yankees, was expected to get $1 million this year.

The biggest problem for the Yankees is that now they almost have to make a move for another outfielder. It will be interesting to see where they go.

[InSpades]

If the deal is just Vazquez for Cabrera then it's a salary dump. I like Melky and all but he's at best a serviceable major league outfielder. I think the key to the deal is who else is involved. We've heard Michael Dunn (hard throwing lefty w/ control problems) and 1 other player going to the Braves (w/ a minor leaguer coming back to the Yankees). Is the 3rd player going to the Braves a real prospect?

From the Yankees perspective... Vazquez is a perfect 4th starter. At the very least he will eat innings and there's obviously potential that he will do much more than that. There's obviously more to come in Yankee-land... Melky was penciled in as the leftfielder barring another move and now that move is much more needed. They added salary so it seems like they will be even less inclined to sign Damon/Bay/Holladay for big money. Possibly when those asking prices come down a bit.

[YourLandlord]

Atlanta is also getting Arodys Viscaino, a 19-year-old righthander that some rated one of the top 5 players in the Yankee system (which is loaded). He's an A-prospect ... the only negative is that he's still very young and very far away from the majors. A lot can happen before a kid like that arrives (remember Brien Taylor).

Vizcaino is not in the deal. Which makes it even more retardedly stupid for the Braves. Seriously, the Braves are idiots.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4764085&type=story

Also, the Yankees system is not at all "loaded." After Montero, it's awful. Unless you still consider Hughes/Joba as prospects.




Short-term, it's all Yankees. I love Cabrera, but he was a perfect as the fourth outfielder. The good -- he'll be 25 years old next season, he's a switchhitter, he has above-average speed and he's good enough defensively to do an adequate job in center if necessary (he'll be a GREAT defensive LFer). The bad -- he's not the corner bat the Braves need. He's a career .716 OPS (88 OPS plus) which is a decent number for a middle infielder, not a corner outfielder. He's come off one of his best years, but he was still just 99 OPS-plus. The best I can say as a Brave fan is that he's young enough to improve.


Cabrera is terrible. Dime a dozen.



Plus, he's been in New York before ... in the head-to-head with the Red Sox, IMHO Vasquez >> Lackey ...

You might be the only person that thinks this. Vasquez is average and gives innings. Lackey is way above average.



The biggest problem for the Yankees is that now they almost have to make a move for another outfielder. It will be interesting to see where they go.

Obviously they'll get Bay or Holliday, or "settle" for Damon. Just money, right?

[YourLandlord]

ithey added salary so it seems like they will be even less inclined to sign damon/bay/holladay for big money.

lolzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[Olympic Fan]

Landlord, I appreciate your posting the espn link to the olney report which doesn't mention Vizcaino. But every other source I've seen, including the New York Daily News and the New York Post are reporting that he IS a part of the deal.

I guess we'll wait and see -- but I agree that without him, this deal makes a lot less sense than it does anyway.

As for the Yankee minor league system being "awful" keep deluding yourself. As I've posted before, there are not a lot of major-league ready players in the system -- Jackson was the most ready -- but it's loaded with young players such as Vizcaino, Romine, Bauelos, Betances, Heredia (that doesn't count Heathcott that a lot of people like --n I'm not a big fan). Of course, that doesn't count the first wave which reached the majors last year -- Coke, Aceves, Robertson and Cevelli. Montera is the monster, but there's A LOT behind him.

And calling Cabrera "terrible" ... you sure you aren't letting your Yankee hate carry you a little too far. More like average -- at least as a hitter. Nice player and I hate to give him up. But, as I posted, no way that he fills the Braves need for a corner OF bat.

As for the Vasquez-Lackey comparison, I posted that as my opinion. You're welcome to yours. No question Lackey was a better pitcher up through 2007, when he had a truly great year (3rd in the AL Cy Young vote). Then he hurt his arm for the first time and he's been a spot pitcher the last two years. Vasquez has been a horse -- over 200 innings in 9 of the last 10 years (and 198 in the one year he missed).

Last year:

Pitcher A 11-8 3.83 ERA 176 innings pitched 139 strikeouts
Pitcher B 15-10 2.87 ERA 219 innings pitched 238 strikeouts

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Pitcher B >> Pitcher A

Obviously, Vasquez had the better 2009 season. Now, will all those innings he's thrown catch up with him? Is that more likely than Lackey having a re-occurance of the arm troubles that limited him the last two years in a row?

I don't know, but I knew the Yankees got Vasquez without the long-term overpayment that the Red Sox had to make to get Lackey.

As for an OF replacement, everthing I've read and heard is that the most likely target remains Mark Derosa -- that the Yankees aren't likely tro go for Holliday or Bay.

[YourLandlord]

And calling Cabrera "terrible" ... you sure you aren't letting your Yankee hate carry you a little too far. More like average -- at least as a hitter. Nice player and I hate to give him up. But, as I posted, no way that he fills the Braves need for a corner OF bat.

His career OPS+ is awful. Last year, his very best year, his OPS+ was below 100. His offense is good for a shortstop.



Last year:

Pitcher A 11-8 3.83 ERA 176 innings pitched 139 strikeouts
Pitcher B 15-10 2.87 ERA 219 innings pitched 238 strikeouts

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Pitcher B >> Pitcher A

Obviously, Vasquez had the better 2009 season. Now, will all those innings he's thrown catch up with him? Is that more likely than Lackey having a re-occurance of the arm troubles that limited him the last two years in a row?

I don't know, but I knew the Yankees got Vasquez without the long-term overpayment that the Red Sox had to make to get Lackey.


As a fan of an AL team, i'm sure you realize that Vasquez pitched in the AAA NL last year.

[ncexnyc]

His career OPS+ is awful. Last year, his very best year, his OPS+ was below 100. His offense is good for a shortstop.



As a fan of an AL team, i'm sure you realize that Vasquez pitched in the AAA NL last year.

Sorry, this isn't Burger King and you can't have it your way. If you're going to take a cheapshot by implying his stats were bloated due to pitching in the NL, then you have to admit that Melky's stats will also get a boost from hitting in the pitching challenged NL.

[YourLandlord]

Sorry, this isn't Burger King and you can't have it your way. If you're going to take a cheapshot by implying his stats were bloated due to pitching in the NL, then you have to admit that Melky's stats will also get a boost from hitting in the pitching challenged NL.

LOL what? This makes no sense.

The pitching stats are bloated because of no DH.

[bluebear]

As for the Vasquez-Lackey comparison, I posted that as my opinion. You're welcome to yours. No question Lackey was a better pitcher up through 2007, when he had a truly great year (3rd in the AL Cy Young vote). Then he hurt his arm for the first time and he's been a spot pitcher the last two years. Vasquez has been a horse -- over 200 innings in 9 of the last 10 years (and 198 in the one year he missed).

Last year:

Pitcher A 11-8 3.83 ERA 176 innings pitched 139 strikeouts
Pitcher B 15-10 2.87 ERA 219 innings pitched 238 strikeouts

I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that Pitcher B >> Pitcher A

Obviously, Vasquez had the better 2009 season. Now, will all those innings he's thrown catch up with him? Is that more likely than Lackey having a re-occurance of the arm troubles that limited him the last two years in a row?



This is a good pickup for the yankees but I doubt you would find many analysts who would consider Vazquez better than Lackey. As YourLandlord mentioned, it's much different pitching in the NL compared to the AL. He was an average pitcher for the Yankees in his first stint and was essentially a mid 4 ERA guy in the AL. Outside of one better year for the White Sox, his best years have been in the weaker hitting NL..He'll be a 10-12 win pitcher next year which is good for a number 4 but I'm betting Lackey has a better season

[YourLandlord]

This is a good pickup for the yankees but I doubt you would find my analysts who would consider Vazquez better than Lackey. As YourLandlord mentioned, it's much different pitching in the NL compared to the AL. He was an average pitcher for the Yankees in his first stint and was essentially a mid 4 ERA guy in the AL. Outside of one better year for the White Sox, his best years have been in the weaker hitting NL..He'll be a 10-12 win pitcher next year which is good for a number 4 but I'm betting Lackey has a better season

To build on this, I will bet $100 right now to any takers that at the end of the 2010 season, Lackey will have better pitching stats than Vasquez.

[jimsumner]

I'll agree that Lackey >Vasquez. But Vasquez > than Mitre, who held down a spot in the rotation for much of the season.

The Yankees farm system is considered quite strong in pitchers, not so strong in position players. Dunn is highly regarded.

Cabrera is a better-than-average major league outfielder, who could get better. He's only mid-20s. Vazquez ain't getting any better, especially moving back to the AL. Right now this looks like a pro-NY trade. Five years from now, maybe not.

Seems like the Yanks have to go after a leftfielder. I can't see Gardner or Hoffman starting. Who will it be? Holliday? Bay? Damon? DeRosa? Marlon Byrd? Reed Johnson? Another trade?

[InSpades]

I'm not sure by what measure Melky Cabrera is "better-than-average". If you look at say... the top 90 OF in Plate Appearances last year. He'd rank in the bottom 1/3rd in OPS, OBP, SLG and about 50th percentile in AVG. He's an okay 3rd outfielder on an average team.

Based off just last year I'd say Vazquez had a better season than Lackey (about an earned run per 9 less, which is probably more than the AL to NL difference). Looking a few years beyond that then Lackey comes out ahead. Vazquez is certainly healthier and cheaper though. Tough to say what last year was for Vazquez... regardless he's a big upgrade over Mitre for sure (as Jim said).

It will be interesting to see what happens in LF. I think if the Yanks end up w/ a top-flight leftfielder then everyone else is just playing for 2nd place :).

[jimsumner]

I'm factoring in Cabrera's defense and base-running in considering him an above average major league outfielder.

[Olympic Fan]

I've never called cabrera "better than average" -- in fact, average is just what I was calling him (I did object to Landlord's characterization of him as "terrible"). Offensively, a 99 OPS-plus (what he did last year) is almost exactly the definition of average.

I agree that its low for a corner outfielder. And he's been worse than that in previous years. But on the plus side, Cabrera is 24 years old, so I don't think it's preposterous to think that his 99 OPS is not an aberration, but a truer measure of his real value. How many guys peak at age 24? While I don't think he's going to be a star, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that he's going to be somewhat better than he's been.

He's has a switchhitter with good speed and a decent defensive player (as I said, average as a CF ... better than average in RF or LF). I think that all adds up to a useful player.

In fact, weren't we just here debating the relative merits of the Red Sox signing Mike Cameron to play left? Let's see, which would you rather have, a 36-going-on-37-year-old outfielder coming off a 111 OPS plus or a 24-going-on-25-year-old outfielder coming off a 99 OPS plus?

Well, at age 25, Cameron had a .621 OPS (a 63 OPS plus).

I think there's a reasonable chance that Cabrera will have a better year in 2010 than Cameron -- he's going up, while Cameron is on the downward slope of his career. Plus, Cabrera is a special bargin at $3 million compared to Cameron"s $10-plus million.

As for Lackey vs. Cabrera, I'd rather not bet money, but I'll be glad to make symbolic bet on this board. What do you say, Landlord, the loser has to come on this board and admit that the winner is a better judge of baseball talent than the loser?

Vasquez was a better pitcher last season, he's healthier and he's cheaper. No reason to think he won't be better for the Yankees in 2010 than the overpriced, fragile Lackey.

PS Still waiting to hear definite word on whether or not Vizcaino is included in this deal.

[bluebear]

Vasquez was a better pitcher last season, he's healthier and he's cheaper. No reason to think he won't be better for the Yankees in 2010 than the overpriced, fragile Lackey.



I remember the first time the Yankees signed Vazquez and all the hype..he was much younger then..how did that work out? Again, he's a very good number 4 pitcher for the Yankees..he would be a solid number 3 or even number 2 on some teams..but I doubt many people who pick him to pitch over Lackey in a one game playoff..would you?

[YourLandlord]

I
As for Lackey vs. Cabrera, I'd rather not bet money, but I'll be glad to make symbolic bet on this board. What do you say, Landlord, the loser has to come on this board and admit that the winner is a better judge of baseball talent than the loser?


It's on like Donkey Kong. :D

[Blue in the Face]

Vasquez was a better pitcher last season, he's healthier and he's cheaper. No reason to think he won't be better for the Yankees in 2010 than the overpriced, fragile Lackey.

This is a little silly. There are reasons to think Vazquez will be better than Lackey next year, and you've discussed them. But their respective performances over more than just last season certainly provide a reason to think Lackey could be better. I don't know which it is, and I'd certainly rather be committed to Vazquez for 1 year and $11.5MM than to Lackey for 5 and $82.5MM. But let's not get carried away and dismiss the possibility that Vaz could be the inferior pitcher.

At any rate, I'd like to see you and landlord list a specific metric or metrics for settling a gentleman's bet about this next fall.

And the espn report now includes Vizcaino in the trade, so I assume that's been confirmed.

[ncexnyc]

It's amazing that so many experts on this board are being critical of this deal, while the actual GM for the Braves pulled the trigger on this trade.

Talk prior to the deal was that the Braves had a supplus of starters and were looking to shop Lowe or Vasquez. All the talk I heard was between the Braves and Angels, with Juan Rivera being the player coming from the Angels. Never once did I hear the Yankees mentioned. Yesterday evening was the frist time that I heard them being mentioned as being in the market for another starter and most of that talk centered around them going after Sheets or Deuschner (?).

I have always liked Rivera and he definitely has the pop you want out of a corner outfielder, so why didn't the Braves deal with the Angels?

It's pretty obvious they like Melky's potential was well that of the other kids they are getting.

[YourLandlord]

It's amazing that so many experts on this board are being critical of this deal, while the actual GM for the Braves pulled the trigger on this trade.

Talk prior to the deal was that the Braves had a supplus of starters and were looking to shop Lowe or Vasquez. All the talk I heard was between the Braves and Angels, with Juan Rivera being the player coming from the Angels. Never once did I hear the Yankees mentioned. Yesterday evening was the frist time that I heard them being mentioned as being in the market for another starter and most of that talk centered around them going after Sheets or Deuschner (?).

I have always liked Rivera and he definitely has the pop you want out of a corner outfielder, so why didn't the Braves deal with the Angels?

It's pretty obvious they like Melky's potential was well that of the other kids they are getting.

This goes both ways.

If it was SUCH a good deal for the Braves, why did Cashman pull the trigger on the deal if he was giving up so much talent?

Look, everyone out there is saying this is a lopsided trade because the Braves traded away someone who got Cy Young votes last year for a 4th outfielder and some very low-A prospects -- who may be good, but are half a decade away from potentially making the majors.

People are stunned they pulled the trigger on this deal, with this little of a haul.

[ncexnyc]

This goes both ways.

If it was SUCH a good deal for the Braves, why did Cashman pull the trigger on the deal if he was giving up so much talent?

Look, everyone out there is saying this is a lopsided trade because the Braves traded away someone who got Cy Young votes last year for a 4th outfielder and some very low-A prospects -- who may be good, but are half a decade away from potentially making the majors.

People are stunned they pulled the trigger on this deal, with this little of a haul.

The Yankees felt they needed a sure starter for the back of their rotation so that is why Cashman made the trade. Future bullpen arms they have in abundance, but a surefire starter who can give them immediate innings they didn't have.

Since the Braves had an extra starter, Vasquez and his contract were expendable. They got the corner outfielder they needed as well as two prospects, which they can develop or package in a future move if they so desire.

You failed to respond to my point on the Braves/Angels deal, which was talked about for a long time. Why wasn't a Rivera for Lowe or a Rivera for Vasquez deal struck? It's pretty obvious that the Angels need someone to replace Lackey. So why no trade? It seems to me that the Yankees gave the Braves more than anyone else was offering.

[ncexnyc]

Does Mr. Marchman qualify as a person, because he seems to feel this is a fair trade for both sides.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tim_marchman/12/22/vazquez.trade/index.html?eref=sircrc

[YourLandlord]

The Yankees felt they needed a sure starter for the back of their rotation so that is why Cashman made the trade. Future bullpen arms they have in abundance, but a surefire starter who can give them immediate innings they didn't have.

Since the Braves had an extra starter, Vasquez and his contract were expendable. They got the corner outfielder they needed as well as two prospects, which they can develop or package in a future move if they so desire.

You failed to respond to my point on the Braves/Angels deal, which was talked about for a long time. Why wasn't a Rivera for Lowe or a Rivera for Vasquez deal struck? It's pretty obvious that the Angels need someone to replace Lackey. So why no trade? It seems to me that the Yankees gave the Braves more than anyone else was offering.

Yes, we all realize the reasons each team made the trade; people are shocked the Yankees gave up so little. People think the Braves got fleeced. Usually one does not trade a Cy Young-vote-getting pitcher for a 4th outfielder and some very low A prospects.

Lowe has a ridiculous unmoveable contract.

[InSpades]

Yes, we all realize the reasons each team made the trade; people are shocked the Yankees gave up so little. People think the Braves got fleeced. Usually one does not trade a Cy Young-vote-getting pitcher for a 4th outfielder and some very low A prospects.

Lowe has a ridiculous unmoveable contract.

Marchman said the Phillies got less for Cliff Lee than the Braves got for Vazquez... dunno if I believe that but... if the Braves got fleeced then what happened with the Phillies? Surely Cliff Lee has more value than Vazquez, right?

[YourLandlord]

Marchman said the Phillies got less for Cliff Lee than the Braves got for Vazquez... dunno if I believe that but... if the Braves got fleeced then what happened with the Phillies? Surely Cliff Lee has more value than Vazquez, right?

...um, the phillies got roy halladay...

[InSpades]

...um, the phillies got roy halladay...

...um, not in the trade where they got rid of Cliff Lee.

[SoCalDukeFan]

There is money for one thing. And long term considerations.

I think that the Phillies made a mistake trading Lee. But you need young (cheap) players to balance out the high priced guys. The Phillies thought that they were only going to have Lee for a year.


There are lots of factors.

SoCal

[YourLandlord]

...um, not in the trade where they got rid of Cliff Lee.

C'mon, man...

It was a 3-team, single trade, deal.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html

[InSpades]

C'mon, man...

It was a 3-team, single trade, deal.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html

Really? http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/transactions/#month=12&year=2009

It's funny that you can always seem to find the 1 article that's wrong to prove your point, but somehow miss the 10 that got the story right.

This was clearly 2 separate 2-team deals. The Phillies sent players to the Blue Jays, the Blue Jays sent players to the Phillies. The Phillies sent players to the Mariners, the Mariners sent players to the Phillies. There was 0 overlap of players in those 2 deals.

Are you really trying to say that 1 deal couldn't have been made without the other? The Blue Jays wouldn't have made that Halladay deal unless the Phillies also traded away Cliff Lee?

[SoCalDukeFan]

I personally wish that the Phillies had kept Lee and let Blanton go, saving $7 Million.

SoCal

[ncexnyc]

Yes, we all realize the reasons each team made the trade; people are shocked the Yankees gave up so little. People think the Braves got fleeced. Usually one does not trade a Cy Young-vote-getting pitcher for a 4th outfielder and some very low A prospects.

Lowe has a ridiculous unmoveable contract.

I asked you if Mr. Marchman qualified as a person, since you have stated not once, but twice that "people think the Braves got fleeced", but you've failed to answer that question. Exactly who are these "people" that you keep talking about? I can only guess that these "people" must all be members of Red Saux Nation.

I'm also wondering why you've failed to address my query concerning the supposed trade between the Angels and the Braves. Again, if the Yankees offer was so slow, why would the Braves accept it and not continue talks with the Angels?

Cashman has always been a Vasquez fan and if you take the time to checkout the ESPN interview with a NY writer, you'll see he states that the only reason Vasquez was traded in the first place, was that higher ups forced Cashman's hand on the Johnson trade.

[YourLandlord]

I asked you if Mr. Marchman qualified as a person, since you have stated not once, but twice that "people think the Braves got fleeced", but you've failed to answer that question. Exactly who are these "people" that you keep talking about? I can only guess that these "people" must all be members of Red Saux Nation.


Ohmigosh.

Do you follow baseball? Do you not realize everyone is saying this is a steal for the Yankees, and that the Atlanta front office got whipped?

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/vazquez-for-cabrera-not-252117.html?cxtype=rss_news_128746

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/12/22/worst-thing-i-saw-all-year-this-vazquez-cabrera-trade/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley_blog

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/12/22/the-braves-serious-about-saving-less-so-about-winning/

there are hundreds of more links out there, but I'm not wasting my time finding any more.

[Olympic Fan]

People think the Braves got fleeced. Usually one does not trade a Cy Young-vote-getting pitcher for a 4th outfielder and some very low A prospects.

Just to be accurate, I don't think that "some very low A prospects" is quite right.

Michael Dunn is not a "low A" prospect. He split last season between AA and AAA, then made a token appearance with the Yankees. He should be ready to perform as a setup man in the big leagues next season.

Vizcaino -- who IS apparently in the deal -- definitely is a low A prospect, but he's a very good one. I can still remember when the Braves got blasted for dealing Doyle Alexander for a minor league pitcher who had an 11-19 minor league record before the trade. Alexander helped the Tigers win a division in 1987. John Smoltz, the pitcher they got in the deal, got to the majors in 1988 and eventually won 200-plus games for the Braves (and saved 100 more).

As a Yankee fan, I've been hearing about Vizcaino and his potential for more than a year. He's a GOOD "low A prospect."

Long-term, this deal will turn on how much the Braves get from Dunn and Vizcaino. I think it's reasonable to expect Cabrera to be a useful, but not outstanding outfielder. Dunn is a good bet to be a useable pitcher, but a longshot to be a star.

Vizcaino is the wild card -- he has a chance to be great (lively arm; good ERA; great SO to IP ratio) ... but it's tough to project low A pitchers.

The other point for the Braves is that they cleared enough money to put together a package big enough to land a power hitting 1B or OF.

I'm confident that the Yankees will get more value next season from Vasquez than the Braves will get from Cabrera/Dunn. In that sense, yeah, they "fleeced" the Braves. But long-term, I think there's a reasonable chance that Vizcaino will tip the balance back toward Atlanta.

[JasonEvans]

The other point for the Braves is that they cleared enough money to put together a package big enough to land a power hitting 1B or OF.


Does Mr. Marchman qualify as a person, because he seems to feel this is a fair trade for both sides.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tim_marchman/12/22/vazquez.trade/index.html?eref=sircrc

Well, the big caveat is "what do the Braves do with the extra $8 million of salary they took off the books in the deal." The only way to call this a good deal for the Braves is if they take that $8 mil and invest it in an outfielder (or maybe a 1B) who provides some pop.

Right now, it looks like they have signed (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jPAajTvo48ZiEt0OAHMSw5rdsz9wD9CP6CKG0) Troy Glaus. I am betting they spend less than $9 million on an aging player coming off an injury season. Glaus is being signed to play 1B even though he has about as much experience as the position at the Major League level as I do ;)

My concern is that the Braves are just going to sit on most of that $9 million. In which case the Vazquez deal isn't nearly as appealing.

--Jason "maybe Heyward and/or Freeman will be ready early... I hope!" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Well, the big caveat is "what do the Braves do with the extra $8 million of salary they took off the books in the deal." The only way to call this a good deal for the Braves is if they take that $8 mil and invest it in an outfielder (or maybe a 1B) who provides some pop.

Right now, it looks like they have signed (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jPAajTvo48ZiEt0OAHMSw5rdsz9wD9CP6CKG0) Troy Glaus. I am betting they spend less than $9 million on an aging player coming off an injury season. Glaus is being signed to play 1B even though he has about as much experience as the position at the Major League level as I do ;)

My concern is that the Braves are just going to sit on most of that $9 million. In which case the Vazquez deal isn't nearly as appealing.

--Jason "maybe Heyward and/or Freeman will be ready early... I hope!" Evans

It looks like the Braves got Glaus for a $2 million a year -- so it looks like you are right that the Braves are going to sit on the money.

Glaus is quite a gamble -- he'll be 33 years last year, coming off a year that he essentially missed with a shoulder injury. He was decent in 2008 -- 151 games ... .856 OPS (124 OPS plus).

Jason, you're not far off on Glaus' inexperience at first base. I believe Glaus has played exactly eight games at first base in his career.

[ncexnyc]

Ohmigosh.

Do you follow baseball? Do you not realize everyone is saying this is a steal for the Yankees, and that the Atlanta front office got whipped?

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/vazquez-for-cabrera-not-252117.html?cxtype=rss_news_128746

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/12/22/worst-thing-i-saw-all-year-this-vazquez-cabrera-trade/?cxntfid=blogs_mark_bradley_blog

http://blogs.ajc.com/mark-bradley-blog/2009/12/22/the-braves-serious-about-saving-less-so-about-winning/

there are hundreds of more links out there, but I'm not wasting my time finding any more.

Thanks for posting these sites, I took the time to read all three, did you?

The reason I'm asking is that in the first one it mentions how the Braves got a better deal for Vasquez than the Phillies did for Lee. Hmmm, seems to me you felt otherwise. So should we believe this site's analysis of one deal, but not the other? Oh, that's right it's more of the BK syndrome, "Have it your way."

As for the two other links, well exactly what does it take to qualify as a blogger? Since they are both from the same person I'll have to count it as just one. The man's entitled to his opinion, but he would have gained alot more credibility, if in his first rant he would have addressed the fact that the Braves got 3 players for Vasquez. He did address that fact in his second rant and if reports are true then the Braves ended up with basically 4 players for Vasquez( Dunn, Visciano, Cabera, and Glaus).

Now what I'm really wondering about and you've yet to address it, is why if Vasquez is such a hot commodity, a point you've waffled about depending on who you are arguing with, didn't the Braves pull off a trade with the Angels?
Hey, we all know the Angels lost Lackey and are in need of a starter. Here's a guy who received Cy Young votes, surely they could have gotten a better package than what the Yankees offered.

[rasputin]

Thanks for posting these sites, I took the time to read all three, did you?

The reason I'm asking is that in the first one it mentions how the Braves got a better deal for Vasquez than the Phillies did for Lee. Hmmm, seems to me you felt otherwise. So should we believe this site's analysis of one deal, but not the other? Oh, that's right it's more of the BK syndrome, "Have it your way."

As for the two other links, well exactly what does it take to qualify as a blogger? Since they are both from the same person I'll have to count it as just one. The man's entitled to his opinion, but he would have gained alot more credibility, if in his first rant he would have addressed the fact that the Braves got 3 players for Vasquez. He did address that fact in his second rant and if reports are true then the Braves ended up with basically 4 players for Vasquez( Dunn, Visciano, Cabera, and Glaus).

Now what I'm really wondering about and you've yet to address it, is why if Vasquez is such a hot commodity, a point you've waffled about depending on who you are arguing with, didn't the Braves pull off a trade with the Angels?
Hey, we all know the Angels lost Lackey and are in need of a starter. Here's a guy who received Cy Young votes, surely they could have gotten a better package than what the Yankees offered.

The answer, of course, is Your Landlord Hates the Yankees.

[YourLandlord]

Thanks for posting these sites, I took the time to read all three, did you?

The reason I'm asking is that in the first one it mentions how the Braves got a better deal for Vasquez than the Phillies did for Lee. Hmmm, seems to me you felt otherwise. So should we believe this site's analysis of one deal, but not the other? Oh, that's right it's more of the BK syndrome, "Have it your way."

As for the two other links, well exactly what does it take to qualify as a blogger? Since they are both from the same person I'll have to count it as just one. The man's entitled to his opinion, but he would have gained alot more credibility, if in his first rant he would have addressed the fact that the Braves got 3 players for Vasquez. He did address that fact in his second rant and if reports are true then the Braves ended up with basically 4 players for Vasquez( Dunn, Visciano, Cabera, and Glaus).

Now what I'm really wondering about and you've yet to address it, is why if Vasquez is such a hot commodity, a point you've waffled about depending on who you are arguing with, didn't the Braves pull off a trade with the Angels?
Hey, we all know the Angels lost Lackey and are in need of a starter. Here's a guy who received Cy Young votes, surely they could have gotten a better package than what the Yankees offered.

I don't know what to tell you, bro. When Yankees fans are excited about the trade (see: any Yankees message board) and Braves fans are pissed (see: any Braves message board), I think that's all you need to know.

[YourLandlord]

than the overpriced, fragile Lackey.


Olympic Fan --
Check this out, news today:

The conditional
option in 2015 would force Lackey to play for the major league minimum
(currently $400,000) if an old elbow injury forced him to miss significant
time with surgery anytime during the deal.

You're worried about an injury. If Lackey does get hurt and misses some time, the Red Sox basically get a free year of him!

That somewhat negates your injury concern, no???

[-bdbd]

Given the great many Duke alums living in the greater DC area, as well as VA, MD, central PA, I'm surprised we haven't seen more commentary on the Washington Nationals here. Yes, they have sucked :eek: , which may cause some fans pause to identify their "fandom," but much/most of that suckiness has been grantis of the other MLB owners :mad: who absolutely raped them and otherwise ran them and their farm system into the ground for the first 6 years of this decade. (Do the names Pedro Martinez, Cliff Lee, Vlad Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano, Sizemore, etc. mean anything to anyone???)

Anyway, they seem to finally be waking from their long slumber :) -- necessitated by an absolutely fed-up fan base ready to revolt, scandals in their farm system, GM departure (generally believed to be a good thing), along with the promotion of his top Lt. Rizzo, and the infusion of some really good new top-flight front office blood. Getting two straight #1 overall picks (and of course #1 in each of the subsequent rounds), as well as the upgrade of their batting order (helped by the signing of a tremendous left-handed power bat in Dunn and the arrival of a speedy CF and top-of-the-lineup lead-off hitter in Nyjer Morgan), has certainly helped.

But this offseason's acquisitions of Marquis, the signing of Pudge for 2 years (I continue to believe that that "overpay" was the price of admission for attracting some good free-agent arms, as well as to mentor a very good young Catcher in Flores, and to care and feed for the two first round (arms) picks from last summer), the addition of a solid back-of-the-rotation guy in Brunley from the Yanks (at very little cost), and the apparent :confused: addition of a very good closer in Capps..... means this team is ready to start moving up. Yes, that doesn't say a lot for a team which managed to lose 105 games last year, but the farm system is filling out, they are likely to add another SP through free-agency - God, please no more Livan Hernandez! - and this year's #1 pick in every round will further grow that farm talent. The rumor is that the #1 pick is most likely to be the power-hitting kid from Nevada who was a HS Soph last year, and took GED's to get into a Nevada JC this year and be eligible for the June '10 MLB draft; but I think there may be some better safe/value choices available.

Anyway, any thoughts on the direction of the Nationals? After all, they are the closest MLB squad to Durham... I'm thinking #4 in a tough NL East in 2010 seems likely, and the arrival of significant overall talent help in 2011 (including future ACE Strassburg (sp?)) could have them really competitve in the foreseeable future...

[Olympic Fan]

Olympic Fan --
You're worried about an injury. If Lackey does get hurt and misses some time, the Red Sox basically get a free year of him!
That somewhat negates your injury concern, no???

Wow, let's see ... Instead of five years at $82 million, it would be five years at about $66-67 million if he misses significant time with injury. That's still more than the Yankees gave Pavano.

And under the contract terms you mention, that "free year" in 2015 would be when he's 37 years old, coming off a major injury (in addition to the nagging arm problems that he's had in the last two years).

I'm not trying to be a smart%$# (not in this post, anyway), but was your last post serious or tongue in cheek? I was looking for a smiley face, but couldn't find one.

[YourLandlord]

Wow, let's see ... Instead of five years at $82 million, it would be five years at about $66-67 million if he misses significant time with injury. That's still more than the Yankees gave Pavano.


I was being serious. And yes, inflation happens.

[Olympic Fan]

Sorry to double post, but I ran across a great article by Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, basically ripping the Braves for their most recent off-season moves:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9874

Fantastic article ... maybe because it confirms my prejudice that the biggest problem in baseball is not the handful of teams like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox that are willing to spend what it takes to win, but the majority of teams that would rather lose and make a profit (like the Braves under the current ownership group) than spend a little more to be competitive.

Sheehan's point is not that the Braves have to spend at Yankee/Red Sox levels to be competitive, but they wouldn't make the slight gamble to spend enough to push them over the competitive hump.

Incidentally, Sheehan also agrees with my point that the Phillies turned the amazing trick of adding Roy Halladay without substantially improving their team. His point was that there was no need to trade Lee (the Lee and Halladay deals were separate) and that the Phils would have been much better off keeping Lee for $9 million this year (a VERY cheap price for a pitcher of his quality), even if they don't resign him (they'd get two first-round draft picks for him next year). His point is that the Halladay-Lee moves have been portrayed incorrectly as a Halladay or Lee choice, when it's not -- the only reason the Phils couldn't have had both was that they didn't want to pay both.

Anyway, if you are a Braves fan or somebody worried about baseball's current path, I urge you to give this article a look.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Sorry to double post, but I ran across a great article by Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, basically ripping the Braves for their most recent off-season moves:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9874

Fantastic article ... maybe because it confirms my prejudice that the biggest problem in baseball is not the handful of teams like the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox that are willing to spend what it takes to win, but the majority of teams that would rather lose and make a profit (like the Braves under the current ownership group) than spend a little more to be competitive.

Sheehan's point is not that the Braves have to spend at Yankee/Red Sox levels to be competitive, but they wouldn't make the slight gamble to spend enough to push them over the competitive hump.

Incidentally, Sheehan also agrees with my point that the Phillies turned the amazing trick of adding Roy Halladay without substantially improving their team. His point was that there was no need to trade Lee (the Lee and Halladay deals were separate) and that the Phils would have been much better off keeping Lee for $9 million this year (a VERY cheap price for a pitcher of his quality), even if they don't resign him (they'd get two first-round draft picks for him next year). His point is that the Halladay-Lee moves have been portrayed incorrectly as a Halladay or Lee choice, when it's not -- the only reason the Phils couldn't have had both was that they didn't want to pay both.

Anyway, if you are a Braves fan or somebody worried about baseball's current path, I urge you to give this article a look.

They could have declined their option on Blanton ($7 Million) and kept Lee ($(9 Million). Not exactly the same but close enough.

I think that they wanted some prospects with pro experience rather than just picks.

I also think that their GM wants to be in control.

SoCal

[Blue in the Face]

Olympic Fan --
You're worried about an injury. If Lackey does get hurt and misses some time, the Red Sox basically get a free year of him!

That somewhat negates your injury concern, no???
On a 5 year, $82MM contract? I mean, sure, that's a nice enough option for the Red Sox to have, but seriously? Behind that computer screen, do you post all this stuff with a straight face?

[Blue in the Face]

Wow, let's see ... Instead of five years at $82 million, it would be five years at about $66-67 million if he misses significant time with injury. That's still more than the Yankees gave Pavano.
Read again - you're giving the Sox a bigger break than the contract gives them. It would still be $82 million, it would just be 6 years instead of 5. They don't get money off the deal, they just get an extra year at the end for the league minimum.

[JasonEvans]

It is a good thing Lackey signed a big contract, because this habit (http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/superstitious_john_lackey?utm_source=onion_rss_dai ly)has got to be expensive.

-Jason " ;) " Evans

[BlueDevilBaby]

Given the great many Duke alums living in the greater DC area, as well as VA, MD, central PA, I'm surprised we haven't seen more commentary on the Washington Nationals here. Yes, they have sucked :eek: , which may cause some fans pause to identify their "fandom," but much/most of that suckiness has been grantis of the other MLB owners :mad: who absolutely raped them and otherwise ran them and their farm system into the ground for the first 6 years of this decade. (Do the names Pedro Martinez, Cliff Lee, Vlad Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano, Sizemore, etc. mean anything to anyone???)

Anyway, they seem to finally be waking from their long slumber :) -- necessitated by an absolutely fed-up fan base ready to revolt, scandals in their farm system, GM departure (generally believed to be a good thing), along with the promotion of his top Lt. Rizzo, and the infusion of some really good new top-flight front office blood. Getting two straight #1 overall picks (and of course #1 in each of the subsequent rounds), as well as the upgrade of their batting order (helped by the signing of a tremendous left-handed power bat in Dunn and the arrival of a speedy CF and top-of-the-lineup lead-off hitter in Nyjer Morgan), has certainly helped.

But this offseason's acquisitions of Marquis, the signing of Pudge for 2 years (I continue to believe that that "overpay" was the price of admission for attracting some good free-agent arms, as well as to mentor a very good young Catcher in Flores, and to care and feed for the two first round (arms) picks from last summer), the addition of a solid back-of-the-rotation guy in Brunley from the Yanks (at very little cost), and the apparent :confused: addition of a very good closer in Capps..... means this team is ready to start moving up. Yes, that doesn't say a lot for a team which managed to lose 105 games last year, but the farm system is filling out, they are likely to add another SP through free-agency - God, please no more Livan Hernandez! - and this year's #1 pick in every round will further grow that farm talent. The rumor is that the #1 pick is most likely to be the power-hitting kid from Nevada who was a HS Soph last year, and took GED's to get into a Nevada JC this year and be eligible for the June '10 MLB draft; but I think there may be some better safe/value choices available.

Anyway, any thoughts on the direction of the Nationals? After all, they are the closest MLB squad to Durham... I'm thinking #4 in a tough NL East in 2010 seems likely, and the arrival of significant overall talent help in 2011 (including future ACE Strassburg (sp?)) could have them really competitve in the foreseeable future...

Been away so I've not followed this thread but have followed my Nats in the paper. Glad to see some money being spent. Lerners have finally gotten the message that the fans are fed up and want to see a half-way decent product on the field. Much improved in the pitching department, at least on paper. Would love to get that power-hitting catcher. Jesus is too injury prone and Pudge is most certainly not a long-term solution. Hoping for a not-last-place finish this season because I cannot endure another 100+ losses. We've also changed our seats from upper level third-base side to left center field. New perspective should be fun and, just in case, quick exit from the stadium a plus.

[YmoBeThere]

Now what I'm really wondering about and you've yet to address it, is why if Vasquez is such a hot commodity, a point you've waffled about depending on who you are arguing with, didn't the Braves pull off a trade with the Angels?

Old news, but I thought Vasquez had a no-trade clause and always indicated to teams that he didn't want to be on the West Coast. Which would rule out the Angels.

[YourLandlord]

Old news, but I thought Vasquez had a no-trade clause and always indicated to teams that he didn't want to be on the West Coast. Which would rule out the Angels.

Yep. That trade was never realistic.

[Olympic Fan]

Apparently Mark DeRosa has reached agreement on a two-year deal with San Francisco.

That's disappointing to Yankee fans (such as myself), who had hoped that DeRosa would land in New York, where he would be the Yankees' fulltime LFer -- but be available to help at second and third.

He'll become the regular third baseman for the Giants. Sandoval will move to first base. At least that the plan.

I think it's interesting that both New York and Boston are still looking for fill gaps in left field. Unless I missed something while away on holiday (is that a pun?), the remaining free agent options for baseball's two biggest spenders are:

(1) Matt Holliday

(1a) Jason Bay

(3) Johnny Damon

(4) Jermaine Dye

Everything I've read indicates that the Red Sox are still focused on bringing Bay back to Boston, but I don't claim any insight there. Yankee sources are saying absolutely no chance -- "zero! underline it" -- that the Yanks get involved for Holliday or Bay. The official line is that they are willing to start the season with Brett Gardner in right. The unofficial gossip is that Brian Cashman lusts after Carl Crawford, an ex-Durham Bull who will be a free agents after next season and doesn't want to spend big this offseason for a player to fill that position.

That doesn't preclude signing a short-term fix. Back when the free agent season opened, one Yankee insider predicted that the Yanks would reach agreement with Damon, but he also said it would take all winter to hammer out a deal. I'm still hoping for this even though the two seem far apart at the moment.

The other option seems to be Dye, who is a lousy OFer and had a very mediocre season last year at age 35 (.793 OPS). Is he finished? Maybe, but he was a VERY productive player in 2008. Even last year, he had a .900-plus OPS against left-handed pitchers. Best of all, you could probably get him at a reasonable price for a short-term deal.

PS I keep reading that the Red Sox are maneuvering to land Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzales. But ESPN's Bruce Levine just shot down the speculated three-way deal with the Cubs that would have sent Ellsbury and Bucholz to Chicago, three top Cub prospects to San Diego and Gonzales to Boston. That doesn't mean the Red Sox are out of it for Gonzales (a 27-year-old lefty who hit 40 homers and walked 119 times last season -- a .958 OPS!).

[jimsumner]

Gonzalez to the BoSox would scare this Yankees fan. The guy is a stud.

It's interesting to look back a few weeks, when we were discussing the Yank's alleged propensity to buy titles.

But look at this off-season. The Bronx Bombers didn't even kick the tires on Lackey. They let Matsui walk, replacing him with the cheaper Nick Johnson. They've resisted Damon's inflated demands. Nada to Holliday or Bay, even though either would fill a huge hole. Sheets, DeRosa, Bedard, Duchserer? Sorry, no thanks. They haven't even made an offer on Chapman.

The big moves have been the trades that brought in Granderson and Vasquez. The Yankees lost some top prospects in those trades, especially Austin Jackson. But they've kept Jesus Montero, Chamberlain and Hughes. They've shown fiscal discipline, they've kept the core of their farm system intact and they've positioned themselves for next year's more attractive free-agent class.

Doesn't sound much like the drunken-sailors-on-shore-leave spending spree predicted by many.

BTW, many sources have maintained that the Yanks' reluctance to spend on FA's is based in part on the luxury tax. So, it may not be a salary cap but MLB does have a system in place to transfer money from the haves to the have-nots and this system does seem to act as a brake on free-agent spending by the team with the largest revenue stream.

[bluebear]

PS I keep reading that the Red Sox are maneuvering to land Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzales. But ESPN's Bruce Levine just shot down the speculated three-way deal with the Cubs that would have sent Ellsbury and Bucholz to Chicago, three top Cub prospects to San Diego and Gonzales to Boston. That doesn't mean the Red Sox are out of it for Gonzales (a 27-year-old lefty who hit 40 homers and walked 119 times last season -- a .958 OPS!).

I think the sox moves thus far have been insurance for losing Bucholz and Ellsbury in a deal for Gonzalez. The posture up here has been that they don't want to give up both in a deal but it's unlikely that it happens without those 2 pieces. The sox don't want to lose Casey Kelly who is one of the best pitching prospects out there..i think the more time that passes though, the less likely it is that this deal happens in the off season. Gonzalez is cheap and SD is in no hurry to dump him. it's looking more likely that the sox will really push hard for him pre trading deadline.
I still would like to see the sox land Bay. I like Cameron as a CF replacement for Ellsbury (in a deal or Gonzalez) but less so as the staring LF...

[bluebear]

Gonzalez to the BoSox would scare this Yankees fan. The guy is a stud.

It's interesting to look back a few weeks, when we were discussing the Yank's alleged propensity to buy titles.

But look at this off-season. The Bronx Bombers didn't even kick the tires on Lackey. They let Matsui walk, replacing him with the cheaper Nick Johnson. They've resisted Damon's inflated demands. Nada to Holliday or Bay, even though either would fill a huge hole. Sheets, DeRosa, Bedard, Duchserer? Sorry, no thanks. They haven't even made an offer on Chapman.

The big moves have been the trades that brought in Granderson and Vasquez. The Yankees lost some top prospects in those trades, especially Austin Jackson. But they've kept Jesus Montero, Chamberlain and Hughes. They've shown fiscal discipline, they've kept the core of their farm system intact and they've positioned themselves for next year's more attractive free-agent class.

Doesn't sound much like the drunken-sailors-on-shore-leave spending spree predicted by many.

BTW, many sources have maintained that the Yanks' reluctance to spend on FA's is based in part on the luxury tax. So, it may not be a salary cap but MLB does have a system in place to transfer money from the haves to the have-nots and this system does seem to act as a brake on free-agent spending by the team with the largest revenue stream.

I agree completely that the Yanks have not been big spenders so far this off season but I would not be surprised if they swooped in and gabbed either Bay or Holliday. I think they are also someone stuck based on their spending last year. I read somewhere were they had over 200 million tied up on something like 16 players for next season...

[jimsumner]

Hey, I hope the Yankees do swoop in and sign Holliday. As Olympic Fan is fond of saying, it's not my money.

But Cashman told the New York press yesterday that Xavier Nady didn't fit into the Yankees' budget. So, either he's holding the line or playing a great rope-a-dope.

FWIW, Yankees' insiders agree that Dye is not being considered.

[Olympic Fan]

I agree completely that the Yanks have not been big spenders so far this off season but I would not be surprised if they swooped in and gabbed either Bay or Holliday. I think they are also someone stuck based on their spending last year. I read somewhere were they had over 200 million tied up on something like 16 players for next season...

Actually, as of Dec. 26, 2009, the Yankees are committed to $212.2 million for 2010, but that's for their entire 40-man roster:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/314727-2010-new-york-yankees-payroll-40-man-roster-updated-122609

That includes a bunch for some minor league guys who aren't close to the Yankee roster -- just as an example, Andrew Brackman (the former NC State basketball player) takes up $6.75 million. He's AT BEST 2-3 years away.

Actually, as it now stands, their payroll will be less in 2010 than it was in 2009 (over $220 million). Of course, that could change in the next two months. Hot rumor is that the Yankees will add Reed Johnson, a 33-year-old OF who made $3 million last year with the Cubs. He also had a .742 OPS -- frankly, I'd rather go with Gardner. Except for a fluke year in 2006 (when Johnson hit .319 with an .869 OPS), Johnson has been a below-average player (under 100 OPS plus in six of the last seven years).

For some reason, Cashman likes him. I think when it comes to Yankee spending, people ought to realize we're in a new era and Cashman is now calling the shots.

The thing few people write about is that "The Boss" is suffering from Alzheimer's and is no longer running the team -- and throwing money at every big name on the market as he did for almost 30 years. Hank is a blowhard, but the evidence is that he's all bluster ... he's letting Cashman call the shots. That may change as it did with George -- in the late '70s, he listened to his baseball people, but after winning a couple of world titles, he decided that HE was the genius and turned the team into a high-payed also-ran for most of the 1980s and early 1990s.

That doesn't mean that Cashman and the Yankees won't spend -- and even spend big. But based on the last two years, I think the evidence is that they will spend more wisely than in the past.

I could be wrong, but I'd be very surprised if the Yankees get in the mix for Holliday or Bay. I think they'll add one more FA, but it won't be at $10 million plus. A year from now, they're going to be major bidders from Crawford and Mauer.

But to get back to bluebear's point, it looks like the Yankee payroll will be (slightly) smaller in 2010 than in 2009.

[bluebear]

Actually, as of Dec. 26, 2009, the Yankees are committed to $212.2 million for 2010, but that's for their entire 40-man roster:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/314727-2010-new-york-yankees-payroll-40-man-roster-updated-122609

That includes a bunch for some minor league guys who aren't close to the Yankee roster -- just as an example, Andrew Brackman (the former NC State basketball player) takes up $6.75 million. He's AT BEST 2-3 years away.

Actually, as it now stands, their payroll will be less in 2010 than it was in 2009 (over $220 million). Of course, that could change in the next two months. Hot rumor is that the Yankees will add Reed Johnson, a 33-year-old OF who made $3 million last year with the Cubs. He also had a .742 OPS -- frankly, I'd rather go with Gardner. Except for a fluke year in 2006 (when Johnson hit .319 with an .869 OPS), Johnson has been a below-average player (under 100 OPS plus in six of the last seven years).

For some reason, Cashman likes him. I think when it comes to Yankee spending, people ought to realize we're in a new era and Cashman is now calling the shots.

The thing few people write about is that "The Boss" is suffering from Alzheimer's and is no longer running the team -- and throwing money at every big name on the market as he did for almost 30 years. Hank is a blowhard, but the evidence is that he's all bluster ... he's letting Cashman call the shots. That may change as it did with George -- in the late '70s, he listened to his baseball people, but after winning a couple of world titles, he decided that HE was the genius and turned the team into a high-payed also-ran for most of the 1980s and early 1990s.

That doesn't mean that Cashman and the Yankees won't spend -- and even spend big. But based on the last two years, I think the evidence is that they will spend more wisely than in the past.

I could be wrong, but I'd be very surprised if the Yankees get in the mix for Holliday or Bay. I think they'll add one more FA, but it won't be at $10 million plus. A year from now, they're going to be major bidders from Crawford and Mauer.

But to get back to bluebear's point, it looks like the Yankee payroll will be (slightly) smaller in 2010 than in 2009.

FTR, I wasn't arguing whether they would have a higher payroll in 09 vs. 10..just pointing out the fact that the made some expensive signing last year that resulted in 16 players = 200 million. I think that somewhat lessens their ability to go out and spend a lot more this year.

[bluebear]

Apparently, Bay is signing with the Mets..I had little hope in the sox resigning him but I will be sad to see him go..

[JasonEvans]

Apparently, Bay is signing with the Mets..I had little hope in the sox resigning him but I will be sad to see him go..

The contract is 4-years at $66 million (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AoyBVroIPzf902nSggx61rQRvLYF?slug=ti-baymets122909&prov=yhoo&type=lgns). There is a fifth year that apparently vests fairly easily which adds another year at $14 million. Bay was desperate to go anywhere but Citi Field, where homeruns go to die. But, no one else really bid on him so he had to sign with the Mets.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports justs rips the Mets (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Ashe1DBjLNvKUbYjDKqyQzwRvLYF?slug=jp-metsbay122909&prov=yhoo&type=lgns) for this deal. It is not so much that he thinks Bay is a bad player, far from it, it is that this is simply not what the Mets needed to spend their money upon.

--Jason "the Mets seem really disfunctional lately" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

I was listening to the guys at MLB Network discuss the Bay deal and how this now turns the focus to Holiday.

Their take is that the Cards are the favorite to re-sign him -- they almost HAVE to. Boston was rated the No. 2 prospect for him (and maybe more aggressive now that Bay is out of the picture) with the Orioles (if he wants a lot of money at a place he can't win) a distant third.

What surprised me was that they listed Atlanta as the dark horse in the Holiday race. I know he would be a great fit -- exactly what they need to be a contender -- but even with all the money they freed up in the Vasquez deal has anybody down there seen any evidence that this management team would poney up the huge contract it would take to land a free agent such as Holiday??

I can't see it.

[jimsumner]

ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed Marlon Byrd for three years.

[YourLandlord]

ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed Marlon Byrd for three years.

The Cubs are the team to beat this year.
:D

[jimsumner]

"The Cubs are the team to beat this year."

And they do such a good job managing high expectations. :D

[YmoBeThere]

I got 6 sets of Cubs tickets in my 40 game pass for this season. I've managed to sell 2 sets, all I need to do is sell 3 more. (I'll go to see them once.)

[Blue in the Face]

In other interesting Red Sox news..The Lowell deal has apparently fallen through. I'll be interested in to see how this changes things. It's no secret that they are interested in landing Adrian Gonzalez and have shown some interest in Beltre.
They just signed Beltre to a 1 year deal supposedly for $9MM, with a player option for 2011 for $5MM. There are rumors that they've been talking to the Mets about trading Lowell for Luis Castillo.

[InSpades]

They just signed Beltre to a 1 year deal supposedly for $9MM, with a player option for 2011 for $5MM. There are rumors that they've been talking to the Mets about trading Lowell for Luis Castillo.

Why would the Mets want Lowell? And why would the Red Sox want Castillo? That doesn't really make much sense to me...

Neither does signing Beltre to be honest. He's coming off a terrible year and the years before that weren't exactly great. I know he's a very good fielder but... don't the Red Sox need some pop at the plate?

[bluebear]

Why would the Mets want Lowell? And why would the Red Sox want Castillo? That doesn't really make much sense to me...

Neither does signing Beltre to be honest. He's coming off a terrible year and the years before that weren't exactly great. I know he's a very good fielder but... don't the Red Sox need some pop at the plate?

I think this is a good pick up for the sox..They weren't going to pry Gonzalez away from San Diego at this point and Lowell is a potential liability in the field. They signed Beltre for pretty short money and it's likely that he puts up better numbers in Fenway compared to Seattle. He's not going to hit over 40 HR again but if he hits 20-25 and bats 260-270, it's well worth the 9 million. This gives the sox one of the best defensive infields in the AL. I agree completely that the sox could use another bat but their opening day roster is still better offensively than the one they had going into the season in 09. They will rely on pitching and defense and if they need a bat at the trading deadline, they have plenty of prospects for trades. One could argue that the could have signed Holliday for the money that they have invested in Beltre and Cameron but I don't think they wanted to tie up the long term money on him with players like Gonzalez and Mauer in play in the next year...
BTW, I don't think the sox want Castillo, they just need to move Lowell and may have to take someone else on in a deal..

[duke74]

I think this is a good pick up for the sox..They weren't going to pry Gonzalez away from San Diego at this point and Lowell is a potential liability in the field. They signed Beltre for pretty short money and it's likely that he puts up better numbers in Fenway compared to Seattle. He's not going to hit over 40 HR again but if he hits 20-25 and bats 260-270, it's well worth the 9 million. This gives the sox one of the best defensive infields in the AL. I agree completely that the sox could use another bat but their opening day roster is still better offensively than the one they had going into the season in 09. They will rely on pitching and defense and if they need a bat at the trading deadline, they have plenty of prospects for trades. One could argue that the could have signed Holliday for the money that they have invested in Beltre and Cameron but I don't think they wanted to tie up the long term money on him with players like Gonzalez and Mauer in play in the next year...
BTW, I don't think the sox want Castillo, they just need to move Lowell and may have to take someone else on in a deal..

As a Mets fan, I would be glad to get rid of Castillo and his contract (although he surprised a lot of us last year). Can Lowell play 1st? Perhaps he's a bench guy/1st baseman for us. And we then can go after Hudson for 2nd base (which we should have done last year but for Castillo's contract).

[InSpades]

Beltre was basically Pedro Feliz last year. He was one of the worst offensive 3rd baseman in baseball. I'm not sure how much of a change in ballpark is gonna effect that. If you get .270 and 25 then I agree it's a good deal but if you get what he did last year... you'd be better off keeping Lowell. Lowell had an OPS of .811 last year, Beltre was .683. If Scutaro duplicates what he did last year then I agree the offense is slightly better, but it's not really that much of an improvement.

[bluebear]

Beltre was basically Pedro Feliz last year. He was one of the worst offensive 3rd baseman in baseball. I'm not sure how much of a change in ballpark is gonna effect that. If you get .270 and 25 then I agree it's a good deal but if you get what he did last year... you'd be better off keeping Lowell. Lowell had an OPS of .811 last year, Beltre was .683. If Scutaro duplicates what he did last year then I agree the offense is slightly better, but it's not really that much of an improvement.

I like Lowell a lot but I think his injuries may have caught up to him. He's a great guy to have on the bench but I don't think he can be an every day 3rd baseman at this point. The real roster difference is
Victor Martinez, Cameron, Scutaro vs. Varitek, Bay, Lowrie..
I think last year was an aberration for Beltre (as was his year in LA)..20 HR is a reasonable expectation, especially in fenway...

[Olympic Fan]

I like Lowell a lot but I think his injuries may have caught up to him. He's a great guy to have on the bench but I don't think he can be an every day 3rd baseman at this point. The real roster difference is
Victor Martinez, Cameron, Scutaro vs. Varitek, Bay, Lowrie..
I think last year was an aberration for Beltre (as was his year in LA)..20 HR is a reasonable expectation, especially in fenway...

As a Yankee fan, let me say I breathed a sigh of relief when I saw this deal. Not because Beltre's a bit of a risk -- he actually played less games than Lowell last season -- but because it's a sign that the Red Sox will not be trading for San Diego's Adrian Gonzales to play first base.

Gonzales is a scary talent -- a 28-year-old first baseman with 40 home runs and a .958 OPS a year ago in SD. The prospect of having Gonzales and Youkilis on the corners was pretty scary.

But the word is that Gonzales is off the market and the Beltre signing seems to confirm it. With Beltre's signing, Youkilis will play first.

I do think Beltre is an upgrade on Lowell -- I agree with bluebear that last year's .683 OPS for Beltre was an aberration ... as was his 2004 OPS of 1.017 in LA.

Overall, Beltre is a very average offensive player (105 career OPS plus) and a slightly better than average defensive player (Lowell, in his prime, was a slightly better hitter -- 111 OPS plus -- and a slightly worse defender). Plus, Beltre is five years younger than Lowell.

[YourLandlord]

=

Overall, Beltre is a very average offensive player (105 career OPS plus) and a slightly better than average defensive player (Lowell, in his prime, was a slightly better hitter -- 111 OPS plus -- and a slightly worse defender). Plus, Beltre is five years younger than Lowell.

Wait, what?

You say Beltre is slightly better than average defensively, and Lowell in his PRIME was slightly worse than this -- thus, average?

Um, Mike Lowell -- when healthy (i.e., in his prime) -- is one of the best defensive third basemen ever.

[duke23]

Lowell was indeed a very good third baseman, but it's Beltre who's in the conversation for one of the best ever. Don't take my word for it:

“Beltre is clearly the best [third baseman] I’ve ever seen in person,” said Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon. “I think [Evan Longoria] is good, I used to think Scott Brosius was really good. … [Eric] Chavez was good, but Beltre was stupid good. I think Beltre is the best who I’ve ever seen with my two eyes – defender, not just third baseman, but defense.”


Wait, what?

You say Beltre is slightly better than average defensively, and Lowell in his PRIME was slightly worse than this -- thus, average?

Um, Mike Lowell -- when healthy (i.e., in his prime) -- is one of the best defensive third basemen ever.

[BlueDevilBaby]

Zimmerman's better than both, IMO.:D

[Blue in the Face]

Lowell was indeed a very good third baseman, but it's Beltre who's in the conversation for one of the best ever.
Yeah, I would agree with the characterization of Lowell as being slightly worse defensively than Beltre, but not at all with Beltre as slightly better than average. He's really tremendous in the field. (At least when he keeps his nutsack out of trouble).

[Olympic Fan]

Wait, what?

You say Beltre is slightly better than average defensively, and Lowell in his PRIME was slightly worse than this -- thus, average?

Um, Mike Lowell -- when healthy (i.e., in his prime) -- is one of the best defensive third basemen ever.

LOL, Landlord -- you sound exactly like an idiot Yankee fan arguing that Jeter is one of the great defensive shortstops of all time.

I said that Lowell in his prime was slightly worse than Beltre defensively -- and I stand by this. But the idea that either is in the conversation as one of great defensive third basemen ever is a joke.

Lowell won one gold glove (three less than Jeter) and he did it with a typical Jeter performance -- a better than average fielding percentage and a below average range factor. Throughout his career, Lowell has been above and below the league range factor in equal measure -- his career range is almost exactly the league average for his career.

He's an average major league defensive third baseman -- at least he was until his body starting breaking down.

Beltre has been slightly better than that over the course of his career -- in 1600 games at third, he's make 2.83 plays/per 9 innings ... vs. a league average of 2.71. He's won two gold gloves (one more than Lowell; half as many as Jeter).

His best year defensively wasn't close to as good as guys we talk about as the best all-time. Brooks, Clete Boyer had career range factors that were significantly better than Beltre's best year. So did Mike Schmidt, Graig Nettles and Clete's big brother, Ken Boyer. Ryan Zimmerman isn't as good as those guys, but his numbers are better than Beltre's.

Beltre is a defensive upgrade over Lowell at third -- and I think he'll give the Red Sox more offensively than Lowell did last year ... but less than Lowell did in their best years.

Actually, it's kind of funny -- and another connection between the Yanks and the Red Sox. Just as the Yankees play their best defensive shortstop at third base, next year the Red Sox will play their best defensive third baseman at first base (Youkilis has better defensive numbers than Lowell or Beltre).

[duke23]

There are plenty of complicated defensive stats that we can argue about, but let's use range factor since you brought it up. (Putouts + assists / game, for those who don't know what the stat means - I had to look it up myself.)

In 2009, Beltre was 2nd in the majors for 3B at 2.9

In 2008, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 2.7

In 2007, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 2.8

In 2006, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 3.0

The only other 3B consistently this good is Ryan Zimmerman. Using range factor to compare modern 3B to historical 3B is useless - in eras when sac bunts were so much more frequent, 3B had the opportunity to make more plays.

And finally, Kevin Youkilis is nowhere near as good a 3B as Beltre. If we want to stick with range factor, his range factor at 3B has never been higher than 2.7 in any season. Just like A-Rod might be a good defensive SS but is actually rather below average at 3B, Youkilis is an excellent defensive 1B but is nothing special at 3B.


LOL, Landlord -- you sound exactly like an idiot Yankee fan arguing that Jeter is one of the great defensive shortstops of all time.

I said that Lowell in his prime was slightly worse than Beltre defensively -- and I stand by this. But the idea that either is in the conversation as one of great defensive third basemen ever is a joke.

Lowell won one gold glove (three less than Jeter) and he did it with a typical Jeter performance -- a better than average fielding percentage and a below average range factor. Throughout his career, Lowell has been above and below the league range factor in equal measure -- his career range is almost exactly the league average for his career.

He's an average major league defensive third baseman -- at least he was until his body starting breaking down.

Beltre has been slightly better than that over the course of his career -- in 1600 games at third, he's make 2.83 plays/per 9 innings ... vs. a league average of 2.71. He's won two gold gloves (one more than Lowell; half as many as Jeter).

His best year defensively wasn't close to as good as guys we talk about as the best all-time. Brooks, Clete Boyer had career range factors that were significantly better than Beltre's best year. So did Mike Schmidt, Graig Nettles and Clete's big brother, Ken Boyer. Ryan Zimmerman isn't as good as those guys, but his numbers are better than Beltre's.

Beltre is a defensive upgrade over Lowell at third -- and I think he'll give the Red Sox more offensively than Lowell did last year ... but less than Lowell did in their best years.

Actually, it's kind of funny -- and another connection between the Yanks and the Red Sox. Just as the Yankees play their best defensive shortstop at third base, next year the Red Sox will play their best defensive third baseman at first base (Youkilis has better defensive numbers than Lowell or Beltre).

[Olympic Fan]

There are plenty of complicated defensive stats that we can argue about, but let's use range factor since you brought it up. (Putouts + assists / game, for those who don't know what the stat means - I had to look it up myself.)

In 2009, Beltre was 2nd in the majors for 3B at 2.9

In 2008, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 2.7

In 2007, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 2.8

In 2006, Beltre was 4th in the majors for 3B at 3.0

The only other 3B consistently this good is Ryan Zimmerman. Using range factor to compare modern 3B to historical 3B is useless - in eras when sac bunts were so much more frequent, 3B had the opportunity to make more plays.

And finally, Kevin Youkilis is nowhere near as good a 3B as Beltre. If we want to stick with range factor, his range factor at 3B has never been higher than 2.7 in any season. Just like A-Rod might be a good defensive SS but is actually rather below average at 3B, Youkilis is an excellent defensive 1B but is nothing special at 3B.

Nice try, but you made a fundamental error -- you're looking at range per game. Because Youkilis is so versatile, he plays quite a few partial games at third (switching from first to third or vice versa ... even a few third to OF or vice versa). Naturally his range per game is going to reflect that.

What you should be looking at is range per nine innings. There you're see that Beltre's career R/9 is 2.83 ... Youkilis' career R/9 (at third base) is 2.88. He also has a better career fielding percentage (.966 to Beltre's .957).

Yes, his fielding numbers at third base are better than Beltre's.

As for your list of Beltre's defensive stats by year, don't they prove the point I've been trying to make? He's a decent defensive third baseman, but people talking about him being one of the best of all time are flat out wrong -- he's a guy who has NEVER has the best defensive stats in his own era and has only once been among the top three.

[duke23]

Wow, being in the top 4 every single year is "decent"? I guess Duke has a "decent" basketball program.

Also, I used range factor because you used it, but it's rather flawed, in the way that non-tempo-free basketball stats are flawed. It gives you a good idea of how a player is, but depends on your pitchers' tendencies, your ballpark, and your other fielders. Put a player on turf and his range factor will go down. Give a player a 1B who scoops balls well and his range factor will go up. The difference between 2.88 and 2.83 means nothing for two fielders in two completely different situations.

There are lots of different defensive metrics, from range factor to UZR, to +/-, that all produce different results, but basically ALL of them agree on Beltre and Zimmerman as the top 2.

We'll probably have to agree to disagree on this. But there are lots more people who'd agree with me than you ;)


Nice try, but you made a fundamental error -- you're looking at range per game. Because Youkilis is so versatile, he plays quite a few partial games at third (switching from first to third or vice versa ... even a few third to OF or vice versa). Naturally his range per game is going to reflect that.

What you should be looking at is range per nine innings. There you're see that Beltre's career R/9 is 2.83 ... Youkilis' career R/9 (at third base) is 2.88. He also has a better career fielding percentage (.966 to Beltre's .957).

Yes, his fielding numbers at third base are better than Beltre's.

As for your list of Beltre's defensive stats by year, don't they prove the point I've been trying to make? He's a decent defensive third baseman, but people talking about him being one of the best of all time are flat out wrong -- he's a guy who has NEVER has the best defensive stats in his own era and has only once been among the top three.

[Olympic Fan]

Wow, being in the top 4 every single year is "decent"? I guess Duke has a "decent" basketball program.


Top four out of how many third baseman who meet the qualifying standard in those year? 30? maybe 40?

It probably means that he's barely in the top 10 percent every year, if that.

That means by the same standards, Duke basketball would be in the top 36 (the top 10 percent of 336 teams) ... when actually Duke has been in the top 10 (that's the top 3 percent) in 13 of the last 14 years.

So no, calling Beltre "decent" is not the same as calling Duke basketball "decent".

His career numbers show Beltre just about 4 percent better than the average ML third baseman. That's hardly "all-time great" performance. It's decent.

PS And is being in the top four for four straight seasons the same as "every single year"???

[duke23]

Well, he was top 4 in 2004 too. But I'll cop to stopping after 2006 because he was merely average according to range factor in 2005 :)

Again, my problem with range factor as a be-all-end-all defensive statistic is that there is no apples-to-apples comparison between players on different teams. If I play 3B for a team full of strikeout pitchers, my range factor will be much lower than if I play for a team full of sinkerballers. Mark Teixeira was the second worst 1B of all qualifiers this year if we go by range factor alone. I think you'd agree with me that that's not true. It just so happens the Yankees pitchers led the AL in strikeouts (4th in the majors), leading to fewer balls in play, and a lower range factor.

Other metrics, such as Ultimate Zone Rating, that attempt to account for these differences (and in many cases, are admittedly beyond my understanding) rate Beltre as one of the best if not the best. I can't say they're the be-all-end-all either, but they seem to be the best we have.


Top four out of how many third baseman who meet the qualifying standard in those year? 30? maybe 40?

It probably means that he's barely in the top 10 percent every year, if that.

That means by the same standards, Duke basketball would be in the top 36 (the top 10 percent of 336 teams) ... when actually Duke has been in the top 10 (that's the top 3 percent) in 13 of the last 14 years.

So no, calling Beltre "decent" is not the same as calling Duke basketball "decent".

His career numbers show Beltre just about 4 percent better than the average ML third baseman. That's hardly "all-time great" performance. It's decent.

PS And is being in the top four for four straight seasons the same as "every single year"???

[YmoBeThere]

That means by the same standards, Duke basketball would be in the top 36 (the top 10 percent of 336 teams) ... when actually Duke has been in the top 10 (that's the top 3 percent) in 13 of the last 14 years.

While the rankings may have put us in the Top 3 % for those years the NCAA finishes definitely wouldn't...

[Olympic Fan]

While the rankings may have put us in the Top 3 % for those years the NCAA finishes definitely wouldn't...

Maybe not top three percent, but a Sweet 16 finish (which Duke has achieved in 10 of the last 12 years) ranks in the top 4.7 percent of all NCAA Division 1 teams. The second-round loss (2008) ranks in the top 9.5 percent.

And even in 2007, when Duke lost to VCU in the first round, that ranked in the top 14.9 percent.

BTW, to get back on topic, what's with Seattle dealing (a minor leaguer) to get Casey Kotchman at first base. Not to start another debate, but he is a remarkably mediocre first baseman (a career .742 OPS ... just 95 OPS-plus). Does this mean the Mariners are going to let Russell Branyon go? I know he's older had some health issues (bad back), but he's a far superior hitter (career 113 OPS plus).

The Mariners have made some exceptional moves during the offseason, but this makes no sense. Even if you worry about Branyan's back and decide not to re-sign him, there are better options that Kotchman out there -- cheap. In fact, there are probably 10 AAA first-basemen who could give you Kotchman's production.

Can anyone explain this one??

[Blue in the Face]

Yankees (along with the Mets and Astros) supposedly out on Chapman. (It's from Buster Olney's twitter, which I can't access at work, so no link, sorry).

[ncexnyc]

Maybe not top three percent, but a Sweet 16 finish (which Duke has achieved in 10 of the last 12 years) ranks in the top 4.7 percent of all NCAA Division 1 teams. The second-round loss (2008) ranks in the top 9.5 percent.

And even in 2007, when Duke lost to VCU in the first round, that ranked in the top 14.9 percent.

BTW, to get back on topic, what's with Seattle dealing (a minor leaguer) to get Casey Kotchman at first base. Not to start another debate, but he is a remarkably mediocre first baseman (a career .742 OPS ... just 95 OPS-plus). Does this mean the Mariners are going to let Russell Branyon go? I know he's older had some health issues (bad back), but he's a far superior hitter (career 113 OPS plus).

The Mariners have made some exceptional moves during the offseason, but this makes no sense. Even if you worry about Branyan's back and decide not to re-sign him, there are better options that Kotchman out there -- cheap. In fact, there are probably 10 AAA first-basemen who could give you Kotchman's production.

Can anyone explain this one??
According to the article I read on the trade, the M's are looking to build their team around defense, pitching, and speed. Everything I've ever seen about Kotchman has described him as an excellent fielder, so it would appear the M's are happy with that.

[duke23]

According to the article I read on the trade, the M's are looking to build their team around defense, pitching, and speed. Everything I've ever seen about Kotchman has described him as an excellent fielder, so it would appear the M's are happy with that.

At some point though, you get diminishing returns from defense, right? You can't beat someone 0 - (-1) :)

I've read the trade is going to be for Bill Hall, who is somehow making over 8 million dollars in 2010 (though a lot of that is being paid by the Brewers), so the financial implications may have something to do with it - trading for Kotchman may actually save money.

[ncexnyc]

At some point though, you get diminishing returns from defense, right? You can't beat someone 0 - (-1) :)

I've read the trade is going to be for Bill Hall, who is somehow making over 8 million dollars in 2010 (though a lot of that is being paid by the Brewers), so the financial implications may have something to do with it - trading for Kotchman may actually save money.

Ah, but isn't that what we always preach about Duke Basketball? If the other team doesn't score our kids can have an off night scoring but we can still win.:D

Your point about money is quite valid and possibly this enables them the M's to gamble on Branyan's health and go after him, with Kotchman as insurance.
You never really know what's actually going on with a team. They do a lot of posturing so as not to tip their true intentions.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't know if anybody has ever done a really good analysis as to the relative merits of offense vs. defense at various positions. I know Bill James does some of that with his win shares, but I haven't seen his positional breakdown.

My point is that I'd go a long way for defensive value at certain positions. I think a great defensive shortstop for instance is worth a lot more wins than an average defensive SS. At C, 2B, 3B and CF, great defense can pay big dividends.

I'm not so sure about first base. Obviously, the position demands a certain level of defensive competence, but how many wins do you get from the difference between an average defensive 1B and a great defensive 1B? How much offense at the position would you give up to upgrade defensively?

This comes up in the Keith Hernandez HOF debate. He is undoubtedly one of the great defensive first-basemen in the modern era. But he's only a slightly better than average offensive first baseman. Does that make him a HOFer?

I honestly don't know the answer. But I would suggest that 1B (and LF) are positions where I would prefer superior offense and average defense to average offense and superior defense.

PS If Olney's twitter about Chapman is correct, count me as one very disappointed Yankee fan.

[InSpades]

At some point though, you get diminishing returns from defense, right? You can't beat someone 0 - (-1) :)


You may have been joking but... there does have to be some diminishing returns in regards to defense. Having a 1st baseman who's great at digging balls out of the dirt is more valuable depending on how often your infielders throw the ball in the dirt. Having a SS who goes into the hole really well isn't quite as valuable if your 3rd baseman is cutting off a lot of those balls. Having a centerfielder who covers a ton of ground is less useful if your corner outfielders also cover a lot of ground. There are only so many runs that are preventable by good defense.

[YmoBeThere]

According to the article I read on the trade, the M's are looking to build their team around defense, pitching, and speed. Everything I've ever seen about Kotchman has described him as an excellent fielder, so it would appear the M's are happy with that.

Is Milton Bradley that good in the field?

[pfrduke]

Is Milton Bradley that good in the field?

They brought him in to play DH. Michael Saunders, Gutierrez, and Ichiro! will be the outfield. Ken Griffey will be $1 million window dressing.

[YmoBeThere]

They brought him in to play DH.

That was a mistake.

[pfrduke]

That was a mistake.

Be that as it may, his defense is essentially irrelevant.

Although, given that the Bradley acquisition is not something taken in a vacuum, but something that comes with getting rid of Carlos Silva and his atrocious 8-figure contract, that has to go for something. I think trading Silva for a poop sandwich would have been a good deal, and I'm not so sure that Bradley is worse than a poop sandwich.

[duke23]

Be that as it may, his defense is essentially irrelevant.

Although, given that the Bradley acquisition is not something taken in a vacuum, but something that comes with getting rid of Carlos Silva and his atrocious 8-figure contract, that has to go for something. I think trading Silva for a poop sandwich would have been a good deal, and I'm not so sure that Bradley is worse than a poop sandwich.

Indeed, Bradley's actually a pretty solid hitter when not injured, which is the bigger reason for playing him at DH - he's a serviceable enough fielder. The guy managed to tear his ACL while being restrained by his manager from going after an umpire a few years back (which IIRC, was warranted, given that the umpire was suspended for what he said to Bradley). He's been labelled a "distraction", but I think he will be a good fit and perform well in a small market.

[YmoBeThere]

You weren't a Dodgers fan when he was having issues. He's been a train wreck everywhere but the Rangers. Silva's contract was the Mariner's mistake...getting Bradley is a mistake Cleveland, the Dodgers, Oakland and San Diego and the Cubs all share. And for what seems like a different reason each season, he never plays all the games or at least most of them. The 141 he played with the Dodgers is the most he's suited up for.

[Olympic Fan]

Couple of issues that I've been hearing about:

-- It looks like Toronto is the favorite now to sign Cuban defector Arodys Chapman (the 21-year-old lefty with the 100 mph fastball). The deal is likely to be announced Monday -- something like four years for $25 million. He'll probably start next season in triple A.

-- Most of the Yankee beat guys seem to think that Atlanta is the favorite to land Johnny Damon. It's almost like the second part of the Cabrera-Vasquez deal because the Braves would use the money they saved in that transaction to pay for Damon. This one might not happen for a while -- Damon still wants something in the $13 million a year range and he's not getting close to that -- from anybody.

-- The New York guys think the Yankees have one more piece to add, but it will be a small cheap one -- a righthanded hitter who can play the OF and maybe fill in somewhere else. The most likely additions are Jerry Hairston Jr., who came to NY late last season and did a good job as a utility man, or Reed Johnson, a very mediocre OF for the Cubs last year.

-- The Mets seem poised to gamble on Ben Sheets, who has some talent, but is one of the most fragile pitchers out there.

[NYC Duke Fan]

Couple of issues that I've been hearing about:

-- It looks like Toronto is the favorite now to sign Cuban defector Arodys Chapman (the 21-year-old lefty with the 100 mph fastball). The deal is likely to be announced Monday -- something like four years for $25 million. He'll probably start next season in triple A.

-- Most of the Yankee beat guys seem to think that Atlanta is the favorite to land Johnny Damon. It's almost like the second part of the Cabrera-Vasquez deal because the Braves would use the money they saved in that transaction to pay for Damon. This one might not happen for a while -- Damon still wants something in the $13 million a year range and he's not getting close to that -- from anybody.

-- The New York guys think the Yankees have one more piece to add, but it will be a small cheap one -- a righthanded hitter who can play the OF and maybe fill in somewhere else. The most likely additions are Jerry Hairston Jr., who came to NY late last season and did a good job as a utility man, or Reed Johnson, a very mediocre OF for the Cubs last year.

-- The Mets seem poised to gamble on Ben Sheets, who has some talent, but is one of the most fragile pitchers out there.

As a Met fan , ( hard to admit that ),I hope that the Mets would gamble on Sheets because if their gamble paid off they would have the best 1-2 top of the rotation in the NL, Lincecum and Cain notwithstanding.

As Tennyson wrote, " It is better to have loved and lost than never to be loved at all ."

[NYC Duke Fan]

They brought him in to play DH. Michael Saunders, Gutierrez, and Ichiro! will be the outfield. Ken Griffey will be $1 million window dressing.

As a side note, Gutierrez is THE BEST defensive CF in baseball and Ichiro is probably the best defensive RF in baseball.

[NYC Duke Fan]

I don't know if anybody has ever done a really good analysis as to the relative merits of offense vs. defense at various positions. I know Bill James does some of that with his win shares, but I haven't seen his positional breakdown.

My point is that I'd go a long way for defensive value at certain positions. I think a great defensive shortstop for instance is worth a lot more wins than an average defensive SS. At C, 2B, 3B and CF, great defense can pay big dividends.

I'm not so sure about first base. Obviously, the position demands a certain level of defensive competence, but how many wins do you get from the difference between an average defensive 1B and a great defensive 1B? How much offense at the position would you give up to upgrade defensively?

This comes up in the Keith Hernandez HOF debate. He is undoubtedly one of the great defensive first-basemen in the modern era. But he's only a slightly better than average offensive first baseman. Does that make him a HOFer?

I honestly don't know the answer. But I would suggest that 1B (and LF) are positions where I would prefer superior offense and average defense to average offense and superior defense.

PS If Olney's twitter about Chapman is correct, count me as one very disappointed Yankee fan.

I am not a Yankee fan, but you guys can't get every player out there...leave some for the rest of us. . What is to be disappointed about, you just won the World Series.

Would be very curious to see how the Yankees would fare if there was a salary cap in baseball, ( unfortuneately there never will be one). How about giving Billy Beane 200 million to spend or the Minnesota Twins 200 million or for that matter how about giving Theo another 70 million.

[YourLandlord]

As Tennyson wrote, " It is better to have loved and lost than never to be loved at all ."

Wow, I love this quote applied to baseball. Bravo.

[Blue in the Face]

-- It looks like Toronto is the favorite now to sign Cuban defector Arodys Chapman (the 21-year-old lefty with the 100 mph fastball). The deal is likely to be announced Monday -- something like four years for $25 million. He'll probably start next season in triple A.

Yahoo is reporting that he's signed with a mystery NL team for $30MM.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-chapmansigns011010&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[Blue in the Face]

Yahoo is reporting that he's signed with a mystery NL team for $30MM.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-chapmansigns011010&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Reds

http://fromthedugout.freedomblogging.com/2010/01/10/reds-outbid-angels-everyone-for-cuban-chapman/43645/

[YourLandlord]

Wow, out of nowhere. The Reds? Bold.

[YmoBeThere]

I have lots of tickets to Reds games that I am willing to part with...okay, who knows if he even makes it to the majors in 2010. But I better strike while the iron is hot.

[Olympic Fan]

I am not a Yankee fan, but you guys can't get every player out there...leave some for the rest of us. . What is to be disappointed about, you just won the World Series.


C-mon ... this comment is a year out of date. A year ago, the Yankees signed three expensive free agents (Sabathia, Teixeira, Burnett).

This year, the Yankees haven't been a player for any big-time free agents, unless you count Andy Pettite, whom we resigned.

But we never made an offer for Holiday, Halladay, Bay, Lackey or even our own Matsui. We did offer Damon, but we low-balled him. All of the changes in our team (so far) were trades and money was just a minor issue in all of them (Granderson and Vasquez might be getting more than their old teams wanted to pay, but both are relatively cheap in today's market).

The Yankees look like they'll sign one more free agent, but it will be a cheap one.

So forgive me if I was hoping to get the young Cuban fireballer ... I think the Reds made a good gamble getting him. But I don't think he'll be much of a factor in 2010 (unless he comes up late in the year). By 2011, we should know if he's a big-timer.

[ncexnyc]

Very interesting. One has to wonder how this kid who had so much hype surrounding him ended up with the Reds. Could it be that during his workouts he didn't live-up to the hype?

[YourLandlord]

Very interesting. One has to wonder how this kid who had so much hype surrounding him ended up with the Reds. Could it be that during his workouts he didn't live-up to the hype?

the Reds offered him the most money. pretty simple.

[Olympic Fan]

It may be the biggest news of the off-season -- Derek Jeter is hanging up his dancing shoes and he's getting married.

Wilt Chamberlain once claimed to have slept with 30,000 women in his life. Now, Jeter isn't in that class, but what he's lacked in quantity, he's more than made up in quality.

Starting with Maria Carey in the mid 1990s, he's been linked to some of the hottest babes on the planet -- Scarlett Johnansen, Jessica Alba, Jessica Biel, Jordana Brewster, Gabrielle Union, Vanessa Minnillo, Adriana Lima, Vida Guerra and Lara Dutton (Miss Universe).

Jeter had a messy breakup with Dutton, which led to a funny story. About a year ago, Jeter let SI writer Rick Reilly go through a day's work of mail. What amazed Reilly were the number of letters from women who included naked photos. When he found one from the current Miss Universe, he showed it to Jeter who responded, "Oh no, I'm not getting involved with any more Miss Universe's!"

How many guys on the planet could honestly say something like that?

My biggest disappoint with the Tiger Woods scandal is seeing all the skanks he went out with (although his (ex-)wife is a babe). And Bill Clinton -- it didn't bother me that he cheated, but that his taste ran to trailer trash. And look at the women that the Beatles married -- except for Ringo (the one with the least talent, who got a Bond girl).

It's really discouraging -- you'd think if you were rich and famous, you could do better than Yoko Ono or chubby Monica Lewinski.

That's why Jeter has been a hero of mine -- Scarlett Johansen! Jessica Biel! Gabrielle Union! That's making your celebrity work for you!

Now he's ended the fantasy (although Minka Kelly, his fiance, is awesome -- check her out in Friday Night Lights). I'm telling you, I won't be this depressed when he retires from baseball. I've lived vicariously through him for the last decade.

Say it ain't so, Derek!

[Duvall]

It may be the biggest news of the off-season -- Derek Jeter is hanging up his dancing shoes and he's getting married.

I guess he needs some kids to start filling up his new Yankeedu (http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/jul/15/derek-jeters-mansion-will-easily-be-tampas-biggest/news-metro/).

[YmoBeThere]

It may be the biggest news of the off-season -- Derek Jeter is hanging up his dancing shoes and he's getting married.

Maybe this was meant tongue in cheek, but is anyone really concerned?

[Olympic Fan]

Just to update some key off-season action:

-- Vlad Guerrero just signed with Texas. He has to DH these days and with the Angels signing Matsui, he had to find another home. Still a great hitter when healthy enough to play -- in that ballpark, he'll hit a ton if he plays 150 games.

-- Adam LaRoche, who passed up a two-year deal with the Giants, signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks. He could have gotten a better deal from the Braves had he signed early. He should fire his agent.

-- The Mets are looking for CF help after Beltran's recent decision -- made without consulting them -- to undergo knee surgery. It was fairly minor surgery, but it will be 12 weeks before he can even begin rehab. He may be ready to play again in May. All that may be good for Reed Johnson, who was waiting for a better offer than the Yankees' low-ball bid. Rick Ankiel is also a possibility.

It's apparently a buyer's market right now. Nobody left available is getting the kind of offers they want. The Mets are low-balling Ben Sheets ... the Braves are low-balling Johnny Damon (he turned down a two-year $14 million deal from the Yankees early -- now it looks like he'll end up with a one-year deal from somebody in the $5-7 million range). Apparently with Anderson and Church gone, the Braves see Damon as a one-year stop-gap until their young OFers (Heywood and Schafer) are ready for prime time.

Still some value out there -- Sheets, Joel Pinero and Jon Garland as SPs. I think Jermaine Dye is still worth something, expecially for a team that needs a DH (although unlike Vlad and Godzilla, he can play some OF).

PS The Chapman deal with the Reds turned out to be six years for $30. 2 million PLUS incentives. That's wa-a-ay more than the most baseball people were willing to gamble. Even as a Yankee fan who wanted the kid, I can see not matching that offer.

Nice to see somebody else -- other than the Yankees -- throw money around for a change.

[Olympic Fan]

Not a major deal, but as predicted, the Yankees added a very minor OF piece to their lineup, signing Randy Winn to a one-year deal.

Winn will be 36 years old this year. He's a 12-year veteran with a career .762 OPS, although he was much worse than that a year ago -- a .671 OPS in 149 games with the Giants. On the plus side, he's a switchhitter and is still an above average corner OFer (he even played 22 games in CF, although he was below par there).

Winn is essentially a replacement for Jerry Hairston -- who was the team's fifth OFer last year.

With the signing, I got to thinking about the overall impact of off-season moves by the Yankees-Red Sox (the second best rivalry in all of sports). As we know, last year the Yankees regained the upper hand in the rivalry after about five years of Red Sox superiority. Was it a fluke or will the Yankees retain their edge?

Well, when I look at the Yankees, the biggest off-season losses were LF Johnny Damon (.854 OPS) and DH Hideki Matsui (.876 OPS) -- two experienced and very capable lefthanded hitters. In addition, NY lost outfielder Melky Cabrera (.752 OPS), backup catcher Jose Molina (great defensively, a horrible hitter) and a couple of mid-level relievers (Bruney and Coke), plus a promising young starter who contributed nothing last year due to injury (Ian Kennedy) and a promising OF who also missed the year with injury (Xavier Nady).

In their place, the team traded for Curtis Granderson (.780 OPS) and SP Javier Vasquez (15-10, 2.87 ERA), and signed free agent DH Nick Johnson (.839 OPS). The Yanks also added Winn and Rule 5 OF pickup Jamie Hoffman, a big, speedy OF who was .850-plus the last two years in AA and AAA with the Dodgers.

On the surface, that's a slight offensive downgrade. Granderson has great power (he ought to hit 30-plus HR in Yankee Stadium), but a poor OBP. He's great against righthanders, but unlike Damon and Matsui, doesn't do well against lefties. Johnson is a fair replacement for Damon in in the batting order -- a superb OBP ... he'll bat second betweek Jeter and Texeira.

The trades have upgraded the Yankee OF defense -- Granderson is a solid CFer, who may play left if Gardner wins the starting CF job. That would mean replacing Damon, an inferior defensive LF with a CF-quality talent in left.

More importantly, the addition of Vasquez adds a quality starter to the rotation. It will be interesting to see how he pitches -- Vasquez is a veteran who has been a decent mid-level starter and an innings eater ... last year, he was an ace -- his 2009 season was better than any starter for the Yankees or the Red Sox. Was that a fluke? If he approaches those numbers this season, a huge upgrade to the Yankee staff.

The key to the Yankees repeating their 103 win season and World Series title depends on players at both end of the age spectrum.

At the upper end, the Yankees need for their four grand old men to continue to be great players. Jeter was a great player at age 35. Rivera remains a great closer at age 39. Posada's defense is slipping, but he was a great hitting catcher at age 37. Pettitte was only so-so during the course of the season, but he was great in postseason at age 37.

How good will they be at ages 36, 40, 38 and 38? A big dropoff will hurt.

At the lower end of the age spectrum, the Yankees are going to be asking several young players to play big roles. Brett Gardner, one of the fastest guys in the AL, is right now pencilled in as the starting CF. Can he improve his .724 OPS? Fran Cervelli will replace Molina as the Yankees backup catcher (an important position with Posada aging). Joshua Chamberlain and Phil Hughes remain key young pitchers -- Chamberlain especially ... great talent, but so far the Yankees haven't figured out his role.

As for the Red Sox, their offense has taken a major hit with the loss of Jason Bay (36 HR and 119 RBI last season) and the impending depature of Mike Lowell (.811 OPS). Their deep bullpen took a slight hit with the loss of Saito (who had the team's second-best ERA).

They've added a prospective ace in John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 OPS), a defensive upgrade at third in Adrian Beltre (.683 OPS last year, but .779 for his career) and a defensive upgrade in the outfield with 37-year old Mike Cameron (.795 OPS). They also swapped Green, Gonzales, Lugo at short for Marco Scutaro, a better hitter (.789 OPS), but with worse range factors than Green.

Interesting that after seeing the Yankees win with a 35 year old offensive-minded SS, the Red Sox would go the same route with the 34-year-old Scutaro.

On paper, the biggest upgrade the Red Sox made will be the retention of C Victor Martinez (.912 OPS) for an entire season (he played 50 games for the Sox last year).

Speaking as a Yankee fan, I can't see how the Sox have upgraded their roster enough to catch the Yankees. But I could see the Red Sox being better.

Just as the Yankees need their veterans to be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009. The Red Sox need several of their guys to bounce back big-time.

Three years ago, David Ortiz was a fearsome hitter -- three straight 1.000-plus OPS seasons. Then he dropped to .877 in 2008 and .794 last year. He'll only be 34 this season ... he could bounce back (he was marginally better late last season), but it sure looks like he's in decline.

Dice-K was one of the top 10 starters in the AL in 2008. Last year, he was hurt and almost useless -- 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA. Supposedly healthy now ... will he bounce back?

Tim Wakefield has been a horse for more than a decade, an underrated innings eater. But he's 44 years old and back problems limited him a year ago. He still had a decent 11-5 record, but that was with a 4.58 ERA.

The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have some young prospects on their way. No telling which of those make a big impact. And, of course, any major injury could impact the race. It will be interesting to see if either team can work a spring deal or pick up somebody at midseason. As a Yankee fan, let me say that I was scared to death that the Red Sox would pry Gonzales away from the Padres -- glad it didn't happen ... but I hear that Boston may make another bid at midseason.

Right now, I like our chances to repeat ... but I admit that there are too many variables -- on each side -- to make any outcome certain.

[bluebear]

Not a major deal, but as predicted, the Yankees added a very minor OF piece to their lineup, signing Randy Winn to a one-year deal.

Winn will be 36 years old this year. He's a 12-year veteran with a career .762 OPS, although he was much worse than that a year ago -- a .671 OPS in 149 games with the Giants. On the plus side, he's a switchhitter and is still an above average corner OFer (he even played 22 games in CF, although he was below par there).

Winn is essentially a replacement for Jerry Hairston -- who was the team's fifth OFer last year.

With the signing, I got to thinking about the overall impact of off-season moves by the Yankees-Red Sox (the second best rivalry in all of sports). As we know, last year the Yankees regained the upper hand in the rivalry after about five years of Red Sox superiority. Was it a fluke or will the Yankees retain their edge?

Well, when I look at the Yankees, the biggest off-season losses were LF Johnny Damon (.854 OPS) and DH Hideki Matsui (.876 OPS) -- two experienced and very capable lefthanded hitters. In addition, NY lost outfielder Melky Cabrera (.752 OPS), backup catcher Jose Molina (great defensively, a horrible hitter) and a couple of mid-level relievers (Bruney and Coke), plus a promising young starter who contributed nothing last year due to injury (Ian Kennedy) and a promising OF who also missed the year with injury (Xavier Nady).

In their place, the team traded for Curtis Granderson (.780 OPS) and SP Javier Vasquez (15-10, 2.87 ERA), and signed free agent DH Nick Johnson (.839 OPS). The Yanks also added Winn and Rule 5 OF pickup Jamie Hoffman, a big, speedy OF who was .850-plus the last two years in AA and AAA with the Dodgers.

On the surface, that's a slight offensive downgrade. Granderson has great power (he ought to hit 30-plus HR in Yankee Stadium), but a poor OBP. He's great against righthanders, but unlike Damon and Matsui, doesn't do well against lefties. Johnson is a fair replacement for Damon in in the batting order -- a superb OBP ... he'll bat second betweek Jeter and Texeira.

The trades have upgraded the Yankee OF defense -- Granderson is a solid CFer, who may play left if Gardner wins the starting CF job. That would mean replacing Damon, an inferior defensive LF with a CF-quality talent in left.

More importantly, the addition of Vasquez adds a quality starter to the rotation. It will be interesting to see how he pitches -- Vasquez is a veteran who has been a decent mid-level starter and an innings eater ... last year, he was an ace -- his 2009 season was better than any starter for the Yankees or the Red Sox. Was that a fluke? If he approaches those numbers this season, a huge upgrade to the Yankee staff.

The key to the Yankees repeating their 103 win season and World Series title depends on players at both end of the age spectrum.

At the upper end, the Yankees need for their four grand old men to continue to be great players. Jeter was a great player at age 35. Rivera remains a great closer at age 39. Posada's defense is slipping, but he was a great hitting catcher at age 37. Pettitte was only so-so during the course of the season, but he was great in postseason at age 37.

How good will they be at ages 36, 40, 38 and 38? A big dropoff will hurt.

At the lower end of the age spectrum, the Yankees are going to be asking several young players to play big roles. Brett Gardner, one of the fastest guys in the AL, is right now pencilled in as the starting CF. Can he improve his .724 OPS? Fran Cervelli will replace Molina as the Yankees backup catcher (an important position with Posada aging). Joshua Chamberlain and Phil Hughes remain key young pitchers -- Chamberlain especially ... great talent, but so far the Yankees haven't figured out his role.

As for the Red Sox, their offense has taken a major hit with the loss of Jason Bay (36 HR and 119 RBI last season) and the impending depature of Mike Lowell (.811 OPS). Their deep bullpen took a slight hit with the loss of Saito (who had the team's second-best ERA).

They've added a prospective ace in John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 OPS), a defensive upgrade at third in Adrian Beltre (.683 OPS last year, but .779 for his career) and a defensive upgrade in the outfield with 37-year old Mike Cameron (.795 OPS). They also swapped Green, Gonzales, Lugo at short for Marco Scutaro, a better hitter (.789 OPS), but with worse range factors than Green.

Interesting that after seeing the Yankees win with a 35 year old offensive-minded SS, the Red Sox would go the same route with the 34-year-old Scutaro.

On paper, the biggest upgrade the Red Sox made will be the retention of C Victor Martinez (.912 OPS) for an entire season (he played 50 games for the Sox last year).

Speaking as a Yankee fan, I can't see how the Sox have upgraded their roster enough to catch the Yankees. But I could see the Red Sox being better.

Just as the Yankees need their veterans to be as good in 2010 as they were in 2009. The Red Sox need several of their guys to bounce back big-time.

Three years ago, David Ortiz was a fearsome hitter -- three straight 1.000-plus OPS seasons. Then he dropped to .877 in 2008 and .794 last year. He'll only be 34 this season ... he could bounce back (he was marginally better late last season), but it sure looks like he's in decline.

Dice-K was one of the top 10 starters in the AL in 2008. Last year, he was hurt and almost useless -- 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA. Supposedly healthy now ... will he bounce back?

Tim Wakefield has been a horse for more than a decade, an underrated innings eater. But he's 44 years old and back problems limited him a year ago. He still had a decent 11-5 record, but that was with a 4.58 ERA.

The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have some young prospects on their way. No telling which of those make a big impact. And, of course, any major injury could impact the race. It will be interesting to see if either team can work a spring deal or pick up somebody at midseason. As a Yankee fan, let me say that I was scared to death that the Red Sox would pry Gonzales away from the Padres -- glad it didn't happen ... but I hear that Boston may make another bid at midseason.

Right now, I like our chances to repeat ... but I admit that there are too many variables -- on each side -- to make any outcome certain.

I agree that the sox may not have caught the yankees in terms of the division but I think you might be a little biased in your assessment of some of the moves offseason. Overall, the sox should be about the same offensively over the course of the year as they were last year and they will have a better rotation and much much better defense. As is, they will likely finish 2nd in the East but I would like their chances in a short series...As you mention, the sox have a lot of minor league talent and are in a good position to deal for a bat if they need one by July...should be a fun year..

[Olympic Fan]

s is, they will likely finish 2nd in the East but I would like their chances in a short series.

But in this case, doesn't that come down to starting rotation -- at least the top three? I mean, the Yankees and Red Sox both have deep bullpens and great closers. Both will be solid defensively (on paper, both should be better than last year) and both have plenty of offensive weapons -- I happen to think the Yankees have more (unless Ortiz regains his HOF form), but we can argue that.

In a short series, the starting rotations are supremely important.

At the top, you have Beckett (17-6 3.86) vs. Sabathia (19-8, 3.37) -- based on last year, a very slight edge to CC. After that, the Red Sox figure to roll out Lester (15-8, 3.41) and Lackey (11-8, 3.83). If any of those big three falter, they have Bucholz (7-4, 4.21), Wakefield (11-5, 4.21) and Dice K (4-6, 5.76) as possibilities -- again, makes a big difference if Dice-K and Wakefield bounce back.

After Sabathia, the Yankees have Burnett (13-9, 4.04) and Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) in the wings. Lester and Lackey are a better combo. But, wait, they also have Vasquez, who was better than any other those guys last year (15-10, 2.87). Based on LAST YEAR'S PERFORMANCE, I like the top of the Yankee rotation in a short series.

I'm already on record for a shout-out bet with Landlord as to the head-to-head performance of Vasquez vs. Lackey this season. We'll see if Vasquez is the pitcher he was in Atlanta last season or if that was a fluke. We'll see if the arm woes that have limited Lackey to less than 180 innings the last two seasons continue.

But I agree that it will be a fun season. Going into the year, I think most experts would rank the Yankees-Phils-Red Sox as the three strongest teams in baseball. I freely admit that I'm prejudiced for the Yankees, but nothing those two contenders did in the off-season scare me (now if the Phils could have added Halladay without losing Lee and Drabek ...)

[bluebear]

But in this case, doesn't that come down to starting rotation -- at least the top three? I mean, the Yankees and Red Sox both have deep bullpens and great closers. Both will be solid defensively (on paper, both should be better than last year) and both have plenty of offensive weapons -- I happen to think the Yankees have more (unless Ortiz regains his HOF form), but we can argue that.

In a short series, the starting rotations are supremely important.

At the top, you have Beckett (17-6 3.86) vs. Sabathia (19-8, 3.37) -- based on last year, a very slight edge to CC. After that, the Red Sox figure to roll out Lester (15-8, 3.41) and Lackey (11-8, 3.83). If any of those big three falter, they have Bucholz (7-4, 4.21), Wakefield (11-5, 4.21) and Dice K (4-6, 5.76) as possibilities -- again, makes a big difference if Dice-K and Wakefield bounce back.

After Sabathia, the Yankees have Burnett (13-9, 4.04) and Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) in the wings. Lester and Lackey are a better combo. But, wait, they also have Vasquez, who was better than any other those guys last year (15-10, 2.87). Based on LAST YEAR'S PERFORMANCE, I like the top of the Yankee rotation in a short series.

I'm already on record for a shout-out bet with Landlord as to the head-to-head performance of Vasquez vs. Lackey this season. We'll see if Vasquez is the pitcher he was in Atlanta last season or if that was a fluke. We'll see if the arm woes that have limited Lackey to less than 180 innings the last two seasons continue.

But I agree that it will be a fun season. Going into the year, I think most experts would rank the Yankees-Phils-Red Sox as the three strongest teams in baseball. I freely admit that I'm prejudiced for the Yankees, but nothing those two contenders did in the off-season scare me (now if the Phils could have added Halladay without losing Lee and Drabek ...)

The yankees definitely have a better offense but I like the sox top 3-4 pitchers better, along with their bullpen. That and the defense are why I would give the sox in edge in the playoffs..along with the fact that I am a biased sox fan..

[Blue in the Face]

Mauer reportedly agreed to a 10-yr deal. That's a lot of squatting in the cold. http://wcco.com/sports/twins/joe.mauer.minnesota.2.1462891.html

[Mal]

Mauer reportedly agreed to a 10-yr deal. That's a lot of squatting in the cold. http://wcco.com/sports/twins/joe.mauer.minnesota.2.1462891.html

Reports denied by several sources pretty quickly, including the Strib, ESPN and SI.com, so no celebrating yet. I trust Joe Christensen and LaVelle Neal on this a lot more than I do Mark Rosen (for anyone familiar with Twin Cities sports news), although he did break the Favre signing last summer.

I'll be sure to be the first one on here, collecting all the posts of the Sox/Yankees fans telling us all how much they're looking forward to having Mauer on their team, when/if this wraps up.

[YourLandlord]

I'll be sure to be the first one on here, collecting all the posts of the Sox/Yankees fans telling us all how much they're looking forward to having Mauer on their team, when/if this wraps up.

I don't think any sox fans here hoped of getting him if the yankees wanted in. it's the yankees fans who post that kind of garbage.

As a sox fan, I'm ecstatic he's staying in Minn -- it is great for baseball. Same with King Felix in SEA, Grienke in KC, and hopefully Lincecum in SF.

[weezie]

Yep. Super duper that young Joe will stay w/the twinnies. Great, swell, yippee.
All the better to pound the skin off the Tigers once again.
Even if we do sign Verlander to a splendid 5 yr contract.

I may never get over Curtis Granderson wearing pinstripes.

[Matches]

Laroche and Damon BOTH need to fire their agents.

[Olympic Fan]

I'll be sure to be the first one on here, collecting all the posts of the Sox/Yankees fans telling us all how much they're looking forward to having Mauer on their team, when/if this wraps up.

As one of the loudest Yankee voices on this board, I dare you to find a post where I lusted after Mauer or gloated about the possibility of getting him in the future. It has been widely reported that the Yankees were hoping to make a bid for him when he became a free agent ... as they reportedly want to pursue Carl Crawford after this season, but don't heap all this on the fans.

All teams have obnoxious fans -- it's just that the fans of winning teams always seem more obnoxious,whether you're talking about the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Tar Heels or (I'm sure to non-Duke fans) the Blue Devils.

And I'm sure there were Yankee fans who fantacized about stealing Mauer. But not all of us want to buy up every bit of talent in baseball. I was against the Yankees pursuing Bay, Lackey, Holliday and Halladay this offseason ... and I've always believed that Mauer ought to stay in Minnesota. Certainly players develop a bond with their teams -- Jeter in New York, Varitek/Pedrosia in Boston, Chipper in Atlanta (alas, I felt that bond with Smoltzie -- it killed me when they let him go).

I want the Yankees to win. But I hope to see Jesus Montero groomed as Posada's successor at catcher. I wouldn't mind adding Crawford next season, but if the Rays step up to the plate and pay him what he's worth, then more power to them.

I hope the Twins do lock up Joe Mauer for the rest of his career. We'll do fine.

[Mal]

Dude, chill. I didn't say all the Yankee fans, and you know I've never lumped you in with the stereotype obnoxious Yankee fan. I do in this case specifically recall both Jim and Ozzie getting snide comments in about Mauer in pinstripes in the MVP thread last fall. Even if it's tongue-in-cheek, Yankee fans should be aware enough to realize how smug those sorts of statements come off. It's always been obvious to those who actually follow teams outside the I-95 corridor that there was a better than good chance the Twins would get this deal done. They really have no choice. With a new stadium and its presumed revenue boost (if the core of the team stays intact) and the bloody p.r. mess that would ensue if Mauer were to leave, about the only variable out there is how much money Mauer declares he wants. And with Ron Shapiro in the mix and Mauer's reported loyalty and character, there was reasonable hope that the answer to that question would not approach $30M/yr. But most of the talk from the East Coast took it as a fait accompli that the Twins couldn't possibly lock him up. It was "when" he became a free agent, not "if (although it's not very likely)". It would be great if people would at least acknowledge the circumstances before spouting off about how great a replacement Mauer will be for Posada.

I know the sentiment is sincere and well-meaning on your part, but I don't want to get started on how the "I actually think it would be good for baseball for us not to get that guy" statement is interpreted by fans of other teams. Keep in mind the context of a thread discussing free agency and wish lists in general where probably 2/3 of the posts involve Yankees and Red Sox players or targets. ;)

In a good faith effort to move the discussion off the East Coast, and off Mauer, I'll note that last week the A's signed Sheets, the Padres signed Jon Garland, and the Royals, of all people, signed Rick Ankiel. Also, Seattle got Felix to a 5-year extension the week prior. Good top of the rotation out there, now, with him along with Cliff Lee. Seattle's been very active this offseason; it'll be interesting to see if they can completely makeover the roster in just two seasons after putting probably the most overpriced 100- loss team of all time on the field in just 2008. If they improve another 5-7 games over last year, they could make some noise, as the Angels should slide a little without Lackey and Figgins and with an outfield that, regardless of who plays in the field and who DH's, is 100 years old. Anyway, the prospect of Lee and Hernandez three or four times in a 5 game series should scare any playoff contender. That said, they managed to win 85 games last year despite a run differential of -52, so some regression to the mean is probably hiding there. The lineup is nothing special, and 3-5 in the rotation are a steep falloff.

And since I can't resist, the Twins addressed a need for bench depth and power bat depth by signing Thome for dirt cheap last week, and are rumored to be in the serious running for Orlando Hudson. Picking him up could mean a lineup against righties of Span, Hudson, Catcher, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, Hardy, 3B. That's no Bronx Bombers, of course, but it's a far cry from the Piranha attack utilized in the Metrodome Era, and it was manufactured pretty quickly to make the team much better suited for outdoor baseball. We now need some White Sox fans on here to tell me their staff of 5 Cy Young contenders are going to shut us down. :)

[Olympic Fan]

Mal, I'd LOVE to talk more general baseball. Every discussion we have seems to turn into the Yankees-Red Sox or maybe the Braves (and I admit my own guilt in that development). Perhaps we could have three threads going into next season -- a Yankee/Red Sox smack talk thread; a Braves thread and a general baseball thread.

I agree with you about the Mariners ... a most interesting team. I think they have the best 1-2 starters in baseball with Felix and Lee and the best 1-2 hitters in baseball in Ichero and Figgins. I'm just not sure they have much pitching depth behind the Big Two ... and I know they don't have enough punch behind the two guys at the top of their order who will be on base all the time. Their batting order is a mirror image of the '61 Yankees (hate to bring the Yankees into it, but that team had the greatest power middle in the 3-7 slots, but was a disaster in the 1-2 slots).

They will be fun to watch. And the AL West ought to be fascinating -- clearly the Angels have come back to the pack a bit. Enough for the Mariners or maybe the Rangers to catch them? I can't see the A's doing it.

Twins are one of the best run franchises in baseball. I wish the Braves (my second team) would make as many smart decisions. I like the pickup of Thome and of all the free agent guys out there, I've been most baffled by the lack of interest in Orlando Hudson. The guys a legit all-star at second base. That would be a great pickup if the Twins get him.

[BlueDevilBaby]

I've been most baffled by the lack of interest in Orlando Hudson. The guys a legit all-star at second base. That would be a great pickup if the Twins get him.

Nationals are very interested in him. They need big time help up the middle as Guz does not have good range anymore at SS and the experiments at 2d base last year did not work out, obviously.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm reading that Johnny Damon will decide between one-year offers from the Tigers and Braves for next season within the next day or two.

The Yankees offered him two years at $14 million soon after the season. Damon and his agent Scott Boras turned that down, asking two years $20 million.

Bad miscalculation. Boros told reporters that the Yankees would be back with a better offer. Instead, Cashman used the money they had budgeted for Damon to sign Nick Johnson (not an OFer, but a perfect fit to take Damon's second spot in the batting order). Not only did Boros fail to get a better offer, by the time he went back to the Yankees, the original offer was off the table.

Reportedly, the best offer on the table now is one year for $7 million from the Tigers. The Braves are just a little bit less. The only other offer is from the Rays, reportedly for something my $4 million.

As a Braves fan, I'd love to see Damon in LF. He's no longer a great defensive Ofer -- not sure he's an average one. But he's still a professional hitter and a great leader.

[bluebear]

I'm reading that Johnny Damon will decide between one-year offers from the Tigers and Braves for next season within the next day or two.

The Yankees offered him two years at $14 million soon after the season. Damon and his agent Scott Boras turned that down, asking two years $20 million.

Bad miscalculation. Boros told reporters that the Yankees would be back with a better offer. Instead, Cashman used the money they had budgeted for Damon to sign Nick Johnson (not an OFer, but a perfect fit to take Damon's second spot in the batting order). Not only did Boros fail to get a better offer, by the time he went back to the Yankees, the original offer was off the table.

Reportedly, the best offer on the table now is one year for $7 million from the Tigers. The Braves are just a little bit less. The only other offer is from the Rays, reportedly for something my $4 million.

As a Braves fan, I'd love to see Damon in LF. He's no longer a great defensive Ofer -- not sure he's an average one. But he's still a professional hitter and a great leader.

For a one year deal, I'd like the sox to make an offer..he can even grow back the hair and beard..agree completely that he is still a good hitter...

[YourLandlord]

For a one year deal, I'd like the sox to make an offer..he can even grow back the hair and beard..agree completely that he is still a good hitter...
Where would he play?

[bluebear]

Where would he play?

I was only half serious as there is no place for him to play.. but he could spell the outfielders and dh...I think the sox need some insurance for Ortiz (and possibly for cameron). Lowell could be that guy (for Ortiz) but that relationship could be past mending at this point. I doubt Damon would want to join the sox in a bench role anyway so its all moot...The sox have gambled a lot on the offensive with the mindset that either pitching/defense will win enough games (if the offense drops off) or that they can trade for a bat at the break. Adding a veteran bat as insurance wouldn't be a terrible idea, especially as a short term deal..

[Blue in the Face]

Reportedly, the best offer on the table now is one year for $7 million from the Tigers.
Actually, while I'm skeptical that it's accurate, since I don't know why anyone would offer so much more than the rest of the market, fox is reporting 2 years at $7 million per from Detroit.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Detroit-Tigers-Johnny-Damon-021110

[Mal]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5016230

Just putting an exclamation mark on this thread. I know we're halfway through Spring Training, but I felt compelled to post this when it finally occurred.

Ha ha. ;)