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View Full Version : ACC Football Outlook (Nov. 15)



Olympic Fan
11-15-2009, 12:44 PM
Pretty amazing to look at the overall record of the top ACC teams.

Georgia Tech is 10-1 with a week off before their season-ending showdown with Georgia.

But after them, we have five teams at 7-3: Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, Boston College and North Carolina.

Behind them, we have FSU and Duke at 5-5.

Obviously, Ga Tech and the 7-3 teams have all qualified for bowls. FSU needs to win one of its last two -- they'd better beat 2-8 Maryland in Tallahassee this weekend, otherwise they'd have to do it against No. 1 Florida. Duke, as we all know, has to win out to get bowl eligible.

As for the ACC title game, Georgia Tech is locked into one spot. Clemson is almost certain to get the other -- they can clinch the Atlantic Division with a win this Saturday against 3-7 Virginia in Death Valley. Even if they lose that, BC can only beat them by winning out against UNC at home this week and at Maryland on the 28th.

With all the 7-3 teams in a bunch, we're going to have an interesting bowl selection process. Keep in mind, that ACC records do count because of the league's notorious one-win rule (a bowl can't pick a team more than one win behind an eligible candidate in the ACC standings). It was a refusal to give up the one-win rule that cost the ACC its longtime tie with the Gator Bowl (after this year) and it could come into play this year.

Assuming no huge upsets, we get Georgia Tech (7-1 ACC) against Clemson (6-2 ACC) in the title game. It's a rematch of the great game they played in Atlanta earlier this season -- maybe the best ACC title game in a long time.

The winner gets the Orange Bowl.

What's interesting is what happens if Georgia Tech loses the title game. The Chik-fil-A (Peach) Bowl has the next ACC pick. They had Georgia Tech last year and the Jackets bombed, losing to LSU 38-3.

No way the Atlanta bowl wants Georgia Tech back again -- but if they do lose to the Tigers, that might have to happen. The only out would be if Virginia Tech wins out in the ACC (State at home, at Virginia) to finish 6-2 in the league. They could take the Hokies, even though that would be VPI's third trip to Atlanta this year (they've already lost to Alabama and Ga Tech there).

It's possible BC could finish 6-2 in the ACC (the UNC game this week is a tossup, but they should finish with a win at Maryland). But BC has the smallest fan base in the league -- no way would they get the Atlanta Bowl.

The Gator Bowl has been rumored to be trying to get a Miami-Notre Dame matchup. The Notre Dame end is shaping up well -- assume the Irish finish up 1-1 (beating UConn, losing at Stanford), they'll be 7-5 and a perfect Gator team.

But the ACC could screw that up -- if Clemson upsets Georgia Tech in the title game, then we have Clemson to the Orange Bowl, Virginia Tech to the Peach Bowl and the Gator would be forced to pick Georgia Tech (well, maybe they could take 6-2 BC, but they wouldn't).

The biggest problem for the ACC is that four teams are already disqualified for bowls and Duke is hanging by a thread. The league is probably going to have seven teams for nine bowl tie-ups. We'll have:

Orange (either Georgia Tech or Clemson)
Chik-fil-A (Virginia Tech)
Gator (either Miami or Georgia Tech)
Champs (either Miami or Clemson)
Music City (UNC or FSU)
Care Care Bowl (UNC, BC or FSU)
Emerald Bowl (FSU or BC)

The EagleBank Bowl in Washington and the GMAC Bowl will get left out.

If Duke miraculously wins its final two -- or equally miraculously wins one of two, plus wins a probable ACC appeal to count the NCCU game -- the Devils would almost certainly wind up in either the Emerald Bowl (vs. a Pac 10 team) or in the Eaglebank Bowl (against a Conference USA team).

Anyway, that's how I see it. The worst single thing that could happen for the ACC as a whole this weekend would be for FSU to lose to Maryland at home. Then we're down to six bowl teams. The best thing that could happen would be for Duke to win at Miami -- then the ACC has a good chance of getting eight bowl-eligible teams.