UNC vs. NCCU

[oldnavy]

Another underwhelming performance from the heels. NCCU is VERY VERY weak, and yet they were able to get 12 offensive boards to UNC's 13, and they shot 44% from 3 pt range to UNC's 38%. NCCU ONLY had 21 turnovers and UNC had 19. Many of the TO's NCCU had were "unforced" (simply throwing the ball to a UNC player or out of bounds) and against token pressure. Overall, NCCU was totally outmatched but this UNC team does not impress me at all thus far. They are certainly not a top 5 team based on the on court performances I've seen. They really miss Ty Lawson.

[brsett]

I don't get what you're saying on this one. They looked well enough. NCCU hit two 3's to get it to 19-17, and from that point on UNC dominated. UNC won by 47, other than putting up 100 pts, I don't know how much more they could have really done.

Having not seen any of the other top 5, I can't comment on the rankings (which I hardly care about at this point anyway), but UNC will be plenty good I think. I'm more interested in seeing Duke now, though without Nolan, it will be hard to get an idea of the team.

[El_Diablo]

With the offensive rebounding, keep this in mind:

-NCCU missed 41 FG
-UNC missed 24 FG

If they were equally good at offensive rebounding, then NCCU would have a ton more offensive rebounds than UNC. However, they got 12 out of 41, or 29%. UNC got 13 out of 24, or 54%. Not even close in this respect.*


*This is not even counting FTs. UNC missed 5, NCCU missed 8...so NCCU might have had even more chances at offensive rebounds when you account for those missed FTs that resulted in live balls (instead of just missed first shots on a two-shot foul, which cannot be rebounded).

[kong123]

NCCU missed 17 more shots from the field and 3 more free throws, so they had a few more opportunities to get offensive rebounds. NCCU was outrebounded by 22. Its a shame when people choose one statistic to bash a teams performance. If this would have been our team that won by 47, I imagine the criticism would be much less.

I feel that their turnovers are the biggest issue by a long shot. The holes are passing the ball like they were still facing high school talent. The key to their progression will be their ability to maintain their focus throughout the game.

[CDu]

Another underwhelming performance from the heels. NCCU is VERY VERY weak, and yet they were able to get 12 offensive boards to UNC's 13, and they shot 44% from 3 pt range to UNC's 38%. NCCU ONLY had 21 turnovers and UNC had 19. Many of the TO's NCCU had were "unforced" (simply throwing the ball to a UNC player or out of bounds) and against token pressure. Overall, NCCU was totally outmatched but this UNC team does not impress me at all thus far. They are certainly not a top 5 team based on the on court performances I've seen. They really miss Ty Lawson.

Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree. Yes, UNC definitely started off sluggishly, allowing NCCU to hang around early for a 19-17 score. But after that, it was all UNC, and they looked strong. The score was 70-25 from that point on. Based on the box score, UNC won the rebounding battle 42-16. They got more offensive boards as well (13-7) despite making a much higher percentage of their shots (meaning they had fewer chances to get offensive rebounds).

And UNC shot a respectable 38.5% on 3s. That's not going to be their game this year, so shooting 35% or better in a game is actually a positive for them. The only place I agree with you is that they miss Ty Lawson. But OF COURSE they miss arguably the best PG in all of college basketball last year and the perfect fit for their system. You can really miss Lawson and still be a very good team.

I was not at all impressed with UNC's game against FIU, and I wasn't impressed with the first 7-8 minutes of last night's game. But after that sluggish start, they thoroughly dominated an inferior team as expected.

Now, I do still wonder what UNC will look like against real teams. And I don't think they're a top-5 quality team right now. But aside from a somewhat high turnover rate (which isn't shocking given the nature of the blowout), there really wasn't a negative for UNC last night. You're nitpicking if you think the 5% difference in 3-point percentage is a concern - 4-9 isn't exactly filling it up by NCCU.

[CDu]

NCCU missed 17 more shots from the field and 3 more free throws, so they had a few more opportunities to get offensive rebounds. NCCU was outrebounded by 22. Its a shame when people choose one statistic to bash a teams performance. If this would have been our team that won by 47, I imagine the criticism would be much less.

I feel that their turnovers are the biggest issue by a long shot. The holes are passing the ball like they were still facing high school talent. The key to their progression will be their ability to maintain their focus throughout the game.

Completely agree. The turnovers are a concern. It's hard to say how much of that is UNC playing loosely because they know the opponent is inferior, and how much is symptomatic of future problems.

These first three games aren't going to be very informative (just like the first few games for us won't be terribly informative either). It will be interesting to see how things play out in the Ohio State game for UNC. Will UNC shorten the rotation and play less of the freshmen (especially the Wears)? And will UNC be less loose with the basketball in a game against a threatening opponent? How will Drew and Strickland handle running the show against better defenses? And will Graves and Ginyard be able to provide enough perimeter shooting when the half-court defenses they face improve?

[kong123]

the holes will soon face a few real teams. Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio State, and California/Syracuse. Those teams are ranked #2, #3, #5, #15, and a #12/#25.

I cannot remember a team having this tough a non-conference schedule.

[CDu]

the holes will soon face a few real teams. Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio State, and California/Syracuse. Those teams are ranked #2, #3, #5, #15, and a #12/#25.

I cannot remember a team having this tough a non-conference schedule.

I believe Kentucky and Michigan State have had similarly brutal schedules in recent years, though I don't know if they were on the same magnitude or not. But yes, it's an uncommonly difficult preseason schedule.

[natedog4ever]

It is very disturbing to look at Henson. He is like that alien at the end of Close Encounters, only it's now wearing an Alexander Julian basketball uniform.

How long before we see a limb come completely off?

[JasonEvans]

Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky, Texas, Ohio State, and California/Syracuse.

Which game will be tougher, the one against Texas or the one against Texas?

;)

Carolina's schedule is very impressive and that should be praised for taking it on. Among their other non-conference games are matchups with Valpo, Nevada, and Charleston -- all three of whom have been mid-major powers in the somewhat recent past. When all is said and done, I expect Carolina to grade out as one of the 2 or 3 toughest schedules in the RPI, Sagarin, and other rankings.

--Jason

[CDu]

It is very disturbing to look at Henson. He is like that alien at the end of Close Encounters, only it's now wearing an Alexander Julian basketball uniform.

How long before we see a limb come completely off?

He is really really skinny. And he hasn't looked all that impressive so far, in admittedly limited minutes. Hopefully that continues to be the case throughout the season.

[kong123]

He is really really skinny. And he hasn't looked all that impressive so far, in admittedly limited minutes. Hopefully that continues to be the case throughout the season.

He showed a few flashes last night. He spiked one of his blocks out of bounds and made a few decent passes. Did anyone see the reverse dunk he missed from the poor alley-opp pass? Shades of Vince Carter.

His legs are in perfect proportion to his legs. They look interchangeable.

I think the first Texas game will be the toughest!

[ClosetHurleyFan]

Another underwhelming performance from the heels. NCCU is VERY VERY weak, and yet they were able to get 12 offensive boards to UNC's 13, and they shot 44% from 3 pt range to UNC's 38%. NCCU ONLY had 21 turnovers and UNC had 19. Many of the TO's NCCU had were "unforced" (simply throwing the ball to a UNC player or out of bounds) and against token pressure. Overall, NCCU was totally outmatched but this UNC team does not impress me at all thus far. They are certainly not a top 5 team based on the on court performances I've seen. They really miss Ty Lawson.

Gotta tell you, as a Heel fan, I saw just as many positives as things that obviously need work. Yes, turnovers are an issue, although several I saw seemed to result from not be entirely familiar with the spacing of the offensive sets that are brand new to most of these guys. But I also saw a bunch of big guys, running the floor (did you see Zeller's breakaway dunk?), dribbling, blocking shots, they didnt look awkard, they looked athletic and hard working. Truth is these big guys will be able to disguise some of their perimeter woes and allow them to gamble because when you drive on these guys, blocked shots will be a real issue with Davis, Henson and Zeller for starters. I think end of January UNC could be a legitimate top five, certainly a very strong top ten team and I for one would be very pleased with that. I certainly expect them to lose 2 or 3 games though before the ACCs......Mich St, kentucky, texas, ohio state, cal.....thats a brutal schedule, and they cant afford to sleep on teams like Nevada or Charleston, more than capable of upsetting an early season top 10 team.....

Other positive, a wide range of guys took threes and made them last night, including some of the freshman.

Also, drew averaging 6 assists, although he did have 4 tos last night...but overall he seems a lot more self assured running the point and is surprisingly fast in transition, although nothing like Ty Lawson.

Also, a little subtlety.....Henson had 4 assists in his limited minutes, in fact he was sort of all over the box score, like 4 points, 4 assists, 2 or 3 boards a blocked shot.....a couple of his passes were quite impressive. Henson could be great by year end.....I think Roy can afford to play him at 3, even when the other guy is faster and can get by him, Davis, Thompson and Zeller provide some real insurance with the blocked shot threat.

[natedog4ever]

He showed a few flashes last night. He spiked one of his blocks out of bounds and made a few decent passes. Did anyone see the reverse dunk he missed from the poor alley-opp pass? Shades of Vince Carter.



I saw the block. That guy went for an under-handed finger roll from about chest high. The key is to go hard at the rim and at him. He'll think twice after that.

And on the dunk attempt, I'm just glad he didn't come down as a torso with both his arms still attached to the rim.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Don't have time to post my game thoughts at the moment, but I will say that Tyler Zeller is way under appreciated. For a 7"er, he's playing alot like a SF- extending on D and running the floor. He's is going to be a big time player before he leaves the Hill.

[riverside6]

With the offensive rebounding, keep this in mind:

-NCCU missed 41 FG
-UNC missed 24 FG

If they were equally good at offensive rebounding, then NCCU would have a ton more offensive rebounds than UNC. However, they got 12 out of 41, or 29%. UNC got 13 out of 24, or 54%. Not even close in this respect.*


*This is not even counting FTs. UNC missed 5, NCCU missed 8...so NCCU might have had even more chances at offensive rebounds when you account for those missed FTs that resulted in live balls (instead of just missed first shots on a two-shot foul, which cannot be rebounded).

Like El_Diablo said, rebounding counts are meaningless. Our box scores and live stats track offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, here's the page for the UNC-NCCU game (http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_Game_Box_Score_External.asp?hGame=1640).

UNC Off Reb %: 52%
UNC Def Reb %: 73%
UNC Turnover %: 24% (better than the 31% against FIU)

[airowe]

HurleyFan,
So you think there will be times when the lineup on the floor will be:
Davis, Thompson, Zeller, Henson, and one of the guards?

I sure hope so.

[loran16]

In all honesty guys, its really hard to tell anything about the Heels against trash competition.

Roy has ONE coaching trait that i like over Coach K....he plays a ton of his players. This could be an advantage or a weakness, depending on who you ask, but in pre-conference play, you'll see all the scholarship players and what they can do. Something K doesn't do all the time.

The end results is that players' minutes are frazzled against cruddy teams, and how players do can only really be ascertained after a stretch of games vs some semi-legit competition.

A game against NCCU means nothing, y'all know that, unless UNC was to lose. They won by 40. Nothing to see here.

[InSpades]

One thing I'm surprised from looking at the UNC boxscores (and admittedly that's all I've seen) is that Henson hasn't gotten more action. 25 minutes and 8 points in 2 games? From talk around here everyone seemed to expect him to be a big part of the team this year. He certainly could still be that, but I would expect him to be more active so far. Has he looked better than his numbers would suggest?

As for Carolina's schedule... I'm surprised more college basketball teams don't take on more difficult schedules. For some teams I can see why they might avoid it (let's face it, beating a bad team looks better on your NCCAT resume than losing to a good team) but for teams that expect to be in the big dance... there's really very little downside. It's not like college football where 1 loss can end your season.

[CDu]

Don't have time to post my game thoughts at the moment, but I will say that Tyler Zeller is way under appreciated. For a 7"er, he's playing alot like a SF- extending on D and running the floor. He's is going to be a big time player before he leaves the Hill.

I get a similar read on Zeller (running the floor, nice touch), but I come to the opposite conclusion. I think he's too much like a SF, and not physical enough. I think his softer style of play will limit him at UNC. Maybe he develops as a banger though. Who knows?

[CDu]

One thing I'm surprised from looking at the UNC boxscores (and admittedly that's all I've seen) is that Henson hasn't gotten more action. 25 minutes and 8 points in 2 games? From talk around here everyone seemed to expect him to be a big part of the team this year. He certainly could still be that, but I would expect him to be more active so far. Has he looked better than his numbers would suggest?

As for Carolina's schedule... I'm surprised more college basketball teams don't take on more difficult schedules. For some teams I can see why they might avoid it (let's face it, beating a bad team looks better on your NCCAT resume than losing to a good team) but for teams that expect to be in the big dance... there's really very little downside. It's not like college football where 1 loss can end your season.

I agree. If you know you're going to be a top-15 team, I think there can be a real benefit to playing stiff competition early. Conversely, if you're a borderline team, you might want to load up the early-season wins so that an 8-8 conference record doesn't doom you come tourney time.

Of course, there are always exceptions - the best situation can be different for each team. But for an inexperienced team like this year's Carolina squad, I think it will be good for them to get a dose of top-tier teams and then have a month to go back to the drawing board before ACC play.

[jws]

Well, the tough schedule thing is great, so long as you win enough of them, and the cupcake route if fine too, so long as you win ALL of them and so long as they're not TOO awful.

The NCAA tourney committee looks very hard at strength of schedule nowadays, and many schools that have loaded up on cupcakes have been penalized heavily come march.

[AlaskanAssassin]

Out of curiosity, how did the Wear twins look? I haven't tuned into any of their games yet.

[CDu]

Out of curiosity, how did the Wear twins look? I haven't tuned into any of their games yet.

Nondescript. One of them (I believe it was David) hit a long jumper. They got a couple of rebounds here and there when UNC was playing volleyball under the basket. But otherwise, they looked like role players who probably aren't ready yet. With UNC having Thompson, Davis, and Zeller clearly ahead of them in the post and Henson possibly getting some minutes at the 4 too, if the twins get playing time it'll be simply because Williams likes to extend his bench (barring injuries or serious foul trouble, of course).

[oldnavy]

I get a similar read on Zeller (running the floor, nice touch), but I come to the opposite conclusion. I think he's too much like a SF, and not physical enough. I think his softer style of play will limit him at UNC. Maybe he develops as a banger though. Who knows?

Agree, Zeller's break away dunk came because he started the transition at the TOP OF THE KEY. Is that where you want your 7 footer playing? Yes, amazingly he can run down the court, but I need to see him start off the block and beat some people down the court before I get real excited about him leading the fast breaks.

I am just saying that NCCU was a very, very, very weak opponent, and UNC did not dominate them the way I would have liked if I were a heel. They got a lot of transition points due to silly, unforced errors. When they were in the half-court game against the zone, they did not impress me.

Several of you have made good points on the offensive boards. I realize that they had more opportunities due to the pathetic Eagles' shooting, BUT they are still offensive rebounds, which are missed defensive rebounds for the much larger and "athletic" heels. Normally, I would not point it out, except for the fact that everyone has crowned the UNC front court as THE best in the nation, and perhaps the best UNC front court ever! Not sure I see that YET... may come later, but I am sticking with my impression that they are NOT a top 5 team. Let's see how they do against UT, UK, and MSU... I may have to eat crow.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I get a similar read on Zeller (running the floor, nice touch), but I come to the opposite conclusion. I think he's too much like a SF, and not physical enough. I think his softer style of play will limit him at UNC. Maybe he develops as a banger though. Who knows?

I don't think we have to worry about him becoming a banger, but he does look much stronger than last season and has been willing to mix it up inside in the game and a half I've seen. Look in his eyes next game, he's not looking that soft to me.

It is hard to get a read on the team against these type of opponents and with so much substition going on...but there are not ten teams out there that are, or will be, better, imo.

My quick player thoughts from the first full game of the year I saw...(no way I could end up being wrong;)

Deon-proving he's the most polished post scorer in the country.

Davis- an elongated "worm".

Watts- improved and springy- will get some minutes-stilll too weak a ballhandler to be a prime time contributer this year.

Graves- I like his game and think he can be a difference maker if he gets some confidence on the floor, and gets in better shape. Good movement for his size but can't keep up the pace Roy wants for long.

Wears- look very mature on the floor and best fundamentals of all the freshmen. They will contribute this year.

Strickland- Looked/played like Nolan Smith to me.

Henson- a poster boy for why you don't ever believe the recruiting hype. No way he goes to the NBA after this year. He's no-where near that ready. Obviously talented, has an interesting skill set for his size, and looks to be a tough match up. Could terrorize second teams along with Zeller as he gets comfortable this season.

Line up I'd like to see..out of curiosity
Thompson,Davis,Zeller,Ginyard,Drew

Roy will narrow the minutes after Sundays game.

My guess at the starting line up in NY next week:
Thompson, Davis,Ginyard,Graves,Drew

Bench: Zeller,Strickland, Henson, Watts, Wears, McDonald (in order of minutes)

[oldnavy]

I don't think we have to worry about him becoming a banger, but he does look much stronger than last season and has been willing to mix it up inside in the game and a half I've seen. Look in his eyes next game, he's not looking that soft to me.

It is hard to get a read on the team against these type of opponents and with so much substition going on...but there are not ten teams out there that are, or will be, better, imo.

My quick player thoughts from the first full game of the year I saw...(no way I could end up being wrong;)

Deon-proving he's the most polished post scorer in the country.

Davis- an elongated "worm".

Watts- improved and springy- will get some minutes-stilll too weak a ballhandler to be a prime time contributer this year.

Graves- I like his game and think he can be a difference maker if he gets some confidence on the floor, and gets in better shape. Good movement for his size but can't keep up the pace Roy wants for long.

Wears- look very mature on the floor and best fundamentals of all the freshmen. They will contribute this year.

Strickland- Looked/played like Nolan Smith to me.

Henson- a poster boy for why you don't ever believe the recruiting hype. No way he goes to the NBA after this year. He's no-where near that ready. Obviously talented, has an interesting skill set for his size, and looks to be a tough match up. Could terrorize second teams along with Zeller as he gets comfortable this season.

Line up I'd like to see..out of curiosity
Thompson,Davis,Zeller,Ginyard,Drew

Roy will narrow the minutes after Sundays game.

My guess at the starting line up in NY next week:
Thompson, Davis,Ginyard,Graves,Drew

Bench: Zeller,Strickland, Henson, Watts, Wears, McDonald (in order of minutes)
I don't think Zeller is "soft" in the sense he avoids contact, but I don't see him pushing anyone around with his frame. He and the rest of the frontline will suffer from a Hansblah hangover. The comparisons will be hard to avoid and impossible to live up to. Zeller is intense, I saw a lot of him up close in Hawaii last year (in street clothes) and he is rather reserved in nature or at least that is my read. He is a talent and can move up and down the court especially well for a 7 footer.

Thompson is sneaky good and perhaps, your best player this year. Ginyard will be a close second, especially if he continues to knock down his shot. If he scores consistently, he will be your MVP. The rest are solid role players, but I don't see any standout performers yet...

My overall take is UNC is a top 15 team, could be a top 10 team at years end, but will have to develop more of a perimeter game to get there. If they do better then hey! it would not be the first time I was wrong!