Olympic Fan
11-01-2009, 11:41 AM
Going into November, the ACC has qualified three teams for bowls:
Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1)
Miami (6-2, 3-2)
Boston College (6-3, 3-2)
Two more teams are one win from bowl qualification and should make it:
Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-2)
Clemson (5-3, 3-2) (note -- Clemson has one FBS win ... I had to check and make sure MTSU was a FCS school).
That's five of the nine teams that the ACC needs to fill its bowl slots. On the other end of the spectrum, I think there are two teams with no chance of getting the required six wins (counting just one FBS win):
N.C. State (3-5, 0-4) -- The Pack has two FBS wins, so they still need four more wins to qualify. They have to sweep Maryland, Clemson, at Va Tech and UNC to qualify. Not going to happen.
Maryland (2-6, 1-3) -- The Terps also need to win out against at NC State, Virginia Tech, at FSU and Boston College. Not going to happen.
That leaves five schools fighting for the other four bowl slots. Needing two more wins to qualify:
Duke (5-3, 3-1) -- at UNC, Georgia Tech, at Miami and Wake Forest. Certainly possible, but definitely not guaranteed.
North Carolina (5-3, 1-3) -- UNC has two FBS wins and can count just one, so like us, they need two more wins in their final four games: Duke, Miami, at Boston College and at N.C. State. Again, possible but not guaranteed.
I will say that looking at the schedules, Saturday's Duke-UNC winner is in great shape, the loser will be struggling to make it.
Florida State (4-4, 2-3) -- also needs two wins down the stretch and with a game at Florida to close the season, they really need two of the next three. Not impossible -- they'll be underdogs at Clemson, but will be a tossup at Wake and will be favored at home against Maryland.
Wake Forest (4-5, 2-3) -- need two wins in three games to make it (that loss to Navy really hurts). At Georgia Tech is going to be tough, but FSU in Winston is a tossup, then they finish at Duke.
It would really be interesting to close the season with 5-6 Wake playing 6-5 Duke with a bowl bid on the line!
One team is three wins from bowl eligibility:
Virginia (3-5, 2-2) -- The loss to Duke really hurts. They still need to win three of four: at Miami, Boston College, at Clemson and Virginia Tech. Seriously, I don't think they make it.
In my opinion, the ACC is going to have a hard time filling its nine bowl slots. State and Maryland are all but dead and Virginia is close. That leaves nine teams for nine spots and at least a couple of them will struggle. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and predict the Duke-UNC winner is in and the loser is out. The FSU-Wake winner/loser is in the same boat.
So I guess I'm saying that the ACC is likely to produce just seven bowl eligible teams. If I'm right, that's good news for Duke -- it would mean that a 7-5 Duke team was not just eligible for a bowl, but also assured of a bowl.
As for the division races, one is simple, the other is confused.
Georgia Tech has a strangehold on the Coastal Division. At 5-1, they get Wake at home Saturday and if they win that as they should, they can clinch the title a week later at Duke. Not giving up on the Devils -- beat the Jackets and suddenly Miami, Virginia Tech and Duke are all in the mix with Georgia Tech.
The Atlantic is a mess. Clemson is tied with BC in the standings, but has its fate in its hands thanks to a tiebreaker win over BC. The key for the Tigers is this week's game with FSU in Death Valley. If they win that, they're pretty much home free -- they get to close at NC State and with Virginia at home.
Lose that and suddenly BC is the frontrunner, but they would need to win out. What if we get a three-way tie at 5-3 between Clemson, BC and FSU? For that to happen, they all would have gone 1-1 against each other ... then it comes down to BCS standings.
It's going to be fun to watch it play out. I'm holding off one more week before getting carried away with Duke's division title chances -- beat UNC and suddenly the Georgia Tech game becomes the most significant November game for the Devils since the 1989 game against NC State (when the winning was likely to tie Virginia for the ACC title).
Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1)
Miami (6-2, 3-2)
Boston College (6-3, 3-2)
Two more teams are one win from bowl qualification and should make it:
Virginia Tech (5-3, 3-2)
Clemson (5-3, 3-2) (note -- Clemson has one FBS win ... I had to check and make sure MTSU was a FCS school).
That's five of the nine teams that the ACC needs to fill its bowl slots. On the other end of the spectrum, I think there are two teams with no chance of getting the required six wins (counting just one FBS win):
N.C. State (3-5, 0-4) -- The Pack has two FBS wins, so they still need four more wins to qualify. They have to sweep Maryland, Clemson, at Va Tech and UNC to qualify. Not going to happen.
Maryland (2-6, 1-3) -- The Terps also need to win out against at NC State, Virginia Tech, at FSU and Boston College. Not going to happen.
That leaves five schools fighting for the other four bowl slots. Needing two more wins to qualify:
Duke (5-3, 3-1) -- at UNC, Georgia Tech, at Miami and Wake Forest. Certainly possible, but definitely not guaranteed.
North Carolina (5-3, 1-3) -- UNC has two FBS wins and can count just one, so like us, they need two more wins in their final four games: Duke, Miami, at Boston College and at N.C. State. Again, possible but not guaranteed.
I will say that looking at the schedules, Saturday's Duke-UNC winner is in great shape, the loser will be struggling to make it.
Florida State (4-4, 2-3) -- also needs two wins down the stretch and with a game at Florida to close the season, they really need two of the next three. Not impossible -- they'll be underdogs at Clemson, but will be a tossup at Wake and will be favored at home against Maryland.
Wake Forest (4-5, 2-3) -- need two wins in three games to make it (that loss to Navy really hurts). At Georgia Tech is going to be tough, but FSU in Winston is a tossup, then they finish at Duke.
It would really be interesting to close the season with 5-6 Wake playing 6-5 Duke with a bowl bid on the line!
One team is three wins from bowl eligibility:
Virginia (3-5, 2-2) -- The loss to Duke really hurts. They still need to win three of four: at Miami, Boston College, at Clemson and Virginia Tech. Seriously, I don't think they make it.
In my opinion, the ACC is going to have a hard time filling its nine bowl slots. State and Maryland are all but dead and Virginia is close. That leaves nine teams for nine spots and at least a couple of them will struggle. In fact, I'll go out on a limb and predict the Duke-UNC winner is in and the loser is out. The FSU-Wake winner/loser is in the same boat.
So I guess I'm saying that the ACC is likely to produce just seven bowl eligible teams. If I'm right, that's good news for Duke -- it would mean that a 7-5 Duke team was not just eligible for a bowl, but also assured of a bowl.
As for the division races, one is simple, the other is confused.
Georgia Tech has a strangehold on the Coastal Division. At 5-1, they get Wake at home Saturday and if they win that as they should, they can clinch the title a week later at Duke. Not giving up on the Devils -- beat the Jackets and suddenly Miami, Virginia Tech and Duke are all in the mix with Georgia Tech.
The Atlantic is a mess. Clemson is tied with BC in the standings, but has its fate in its hands thanks to a tiebreaker win over BC. The key for the Tigers is this week's game with FSU in Death Valley. If they win that, they're pretty much home free -- they get to close at NC State and with Virginia at home.
Lose that and suddenly BC is the frontrunner, but they would need to win out. What if we get a three-way tie at 5-3 between Clemson, BC and FSU? For that to happen, they all would have gone 1-1 against each other ... then it comes down to BCS standings.
It's going to be fun to watch it play out. I'm holding off one more week before getting carried away with Duke's division title chances -- beat UNC and suddenly the Georgia Tech game becomes the most significant November game for the Devils since the 1989 game against NC State (when the winning was likely to tie Virginia for the ACC title).