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DukeSean
10-28-2009, 12:11 AM
From the mailblog:


Ted in Irvine, Calif., writes: how many teams from the acc get bowl bids

HD: I'm going to go with seven -- Clemson, Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke and Miami. The one I'm least sure of right now is North Carolina. The Tar Heels need three more wins and have to find them against Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami, Boston College and NC State. The teams I'm counting out right now are NC State, Maryland, Wake Forest and Virginia. (emphasis added)

I enjoyed that vote of confidence, even if we do need 7 wins.

juise
10-28-2009, 12:31 AM
For those who are lost (like I was)... HD is ESPN's Heather Dinich. Here's the referenced mailblog. (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/5773/tuesday-mailblog-8)

I agree that this is a nice vote of confidence for Duke from someone who pays a lot of attention to the conference. I'd be interested to hear which games she likes Duke in.

MADevil30
10-28-2009, 01:00 AM
For those who are lost (like I was)... HD is ESPN's Heather Dinich. Here's the referenced mailblog. (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/5773/tuesday-mailblog-8)

I agree that this is a nice vote of confidence for Duke from someone who pays a lot of attention to the conference. I'd be interested to hear which games she likes Duke in.

The obvious guess would be virginia, UNC, and wake. I'd be pretty surprised if we were picked by anyone to beat miami or GT, although it would be nice if we did and had some leeway going into the wake game to end the season

juise
10-28-2009, 01:20 AM
The obvious guess would be virginia, UNC, and wake. I'd be pretty surprised if we were picked by anyone to beat miami or GT, although it would be nice if we did and had some leeway going into the wake game to end the season

I agree. I guess that I thought she was including UNC in her seven because they are "the one she is least sure of" and they would probably need to beat Duke to get in. When I went back and counted, she had already listed 7 schools before UNC. I guess she meant that she thinks the Heels are least likely to get a bowl bid.

CameronBornAndBred
10-28-2009, 07:50 AM
She can't make up her mind. In her season predictions that she made a day or two earlier, she said we would be home for the holidays. (Once she figured out that NCCU didn't count)

SupaDave
10-28-2009, 12:05 PM
Well to keeps things in perspective - this is a program that STAYED in ESPN's bottom 10 so I think it's safe to say that even the mention of a bowl should be great news around here...

CEF1959
10-28-2009, 06:01 PM
A loss this weekend to Virginia would have HD sending a revised response to Ted in Irvine, and UVa is a 6.5 point favorite right now. And she's picking Duke over UNC-CH for a bowl bid, which suggests she thinks Duke is going to win at Chapel Hole.

I don't want to be a buzz-kill here, and I hope she's right, but HD's comment seems to assume quite a bit.

CDu
10-28-2009, 07:23 PM
A loss this weekend to Virginia would have HD sending a revised response to Ted in Irvine, and UVa is a 6.5 point favorite right now. And she's picking Duke over UNC-CH for a bowl bid, which suggests she thinks Duke is going to win at Chapel Hole.

I don't want to be a buzz-kill here, and I hope she's right, but HD's comment seems to assume quite a bit.

Yeah, I think the odds are against us making a bowl game. We either have to win out against @UVa, @UNC, and Wake, or we have to win two of three AND beat either @Miami or Georgia Tech. We're underdogs at UVa, we may well be underdogs against UNC, and Wake will be a tough game closing out the season. It's definitely oable, but I'd put us in the "questionable" category - slightly ahead of UNC in that department.

That being said, the fact that it's even a topic of discussion is amazing. Cutcliffe is doing great things with this team. I'm amazed that he has so many freshmen contributing at a high level. The recruiting seems to have really picked up.

And if we do pull off the upset on the road this weekend, it gets really interesting.

davekay1971
10-29-2009, 08:23 AM
Well to keeps things in perspective - this is a program that STAYED in ESPN's bottom 10 so I think it's safe to say that even the mention of a bowl should be great news around here...

Very, very true. Duke made a huge leap in the right direction last year, and I think it's now safe to say Duke has made another big step forward this year. Hopefully we can get three more wins and get into a bowl game, but that would not be my criteria for success this season.

DukeSean
10-29-2009, 11:19 AM
Well to keeps things in perspective - this is a program that STAYED in ESPN's bottom 10 so I think it's safe to say that even the mention of a bowl should be great news around here...

Sometimes I still check out the Bottom 10 just to make sure we're not "on the bubble." It's a weird feeling not to see us anywhere there, but it's an awesome feeling.

Back to the original topic, though, I do think it's going to be a challenge to get 3 more wins, not that it's impossible, but I'm pretty much assuming that we won't be getting wins against GT or Miami.

FWIW, HD predicts a 24-14 Duke win @ UVA. I'm not really sure if their pass defense has played anyone particularly great at the pass, so their figures might be inflated and overrated. But I guess that's why we play the game.

Anyways, excited for Saturday!

Devilsfan
10-29-2009, 11:36 AM
Thought it was Bilas' son hubert davis. Who's your daddy?

Devil in the Blue Dress
10-29-2009, 12:19 PM
How refreshing it is near the end of October to be talking about whether we can go to a bowl!!!!!

Bluedog
10-29-2009, 01:15 PM
Question: Even if we win 3 more games to become bowl eligible, that doesn't mean we're guaranteed to get a bowl invite, right?

I mean, I recall some teams in the past in the NCAA had the necessary number of wins, but still didn't get an invite anywhere. Doesn't happen that often, but perhaps 2-3 teams every other season or something. In any event, I could see us not being a very appealing choice for a bowl - small alumni base that doesn't travel to watch its football team very much. On the other hand, it's been forever since we've made a bowl, so perhaps we have that going for us. Also, I recall there being some bowls that are pretty much automatically ACC #6, #7, #8 etc. vs. another league's #6, etc. I think a new bowl created last year is automatically Navy vs. ACC #9 or something like that, if I recall correctly. So, in that case, maybe we are guaranteed to make a bowl if we have the right number of wins since certain bowls have pre-determined how it selects its participants. And there certainly aren't going to be 10+ ACC bowl-eligible teams. So, again, if we win three more, are we guaranteed to get a bowl invite? I'm thinking not technically guaranteed, but highly unlikely that we wouldn't get an invite.

Kfanarmy
10-29-2009, 02:20 PM
A loss this weekend to Virginia would have HD sending a revised response to Ted in Irvine, and UVa is a 6.5 point favorite right now. And she's picking Duke over UNC-CH for a bowl bid, which suggests she thinks Duke is going to win at Chapel Hole.

I don't want to be a buzz-kill here, and I hope she's right, but HD's comment seems to assume quite a bit.

It is a prediction, doesn't that mean it assumes quite a bit...like the future?

gep
10-30-2009, 12:02 AM
Back to the original topic, though, I do think it's going to be a challenge to get 3 more wins, not that it's impossible, but I'm pretty much assuming that we won't be getting wins against GT or Miami.

....

Anyways, excited for Saturday!

I'm optimistically hoping that either GT or Miami (especially GT) are winnable... especially how Duke played VT, and what unc did to VT tonite...

But if Saturday turns out positively (as we all hope), the plot thickens:)

JasonEvans
10-30-2009, 10:29 AM
Question: Even if we win 3 more games to become bowl eligible, that doesn't mean we're guaranteed to get a bowl invite, right?

Correct, but the odds of a BCS conference teams with 7 wins not getting a bowl bid are almost nil. Plus, if Duke gets to 7 it is kinda hard to see how there would be enough other ACC teams that are bowl eligible to allow Duke to be passed over. Duke would also have a compelling "story" to tell with the team being so awful for so long. That could be attractive to some bowl selection folks.

--Jason "I do recognize that $$$ rules when it comes to bowl decisions and Duke does not exactly have a history of alums who travel to football games" Evans

blazindw
10-30-2009, 12:55 PM
Correct, but the odds of a BCS conference teams with 7 wins not getting a bowl bid are almost nil. Plus, if Duke gets to 7 it is kinda hard to see how there would be enough other ACC teams that are bowl eligible to allow Duke to be passed over. Duke would also have a compelling "story" to tell with the team being so awful for so long. That could be attractive to some bowl selection folks.

--Jason "I do recognize that $$$ rules when it comes to bowl decisions and Duke does not exactly have a history of alums who travel to football games" Evans

If we went to the Eagle Bank Bowl in DC, we would have a huge fanbase for the game...our 3 biggest alumni centers are NYC, DC and NC, and each would be able to travel to this game. Problem is, Army is contracted to that game should they be bowl eligible, and since we've played them already, it may not be an attractive matchup.

Duvall
10-30-2009, 12:59 PM
If we went to the Eagle Bank Bowl in DC, we would have a huge fanbase for the game...our 3 biggest alumni centers are NYC, DC and NC, and each would be able to travel to this game. Problem is, Army is contracted to that game should they be bowl eligible, and since we've played them already, it may not be an attractive matchup.

Dunno if Army is going to be bowl eligible, though. They need to beat Navy or Air Force at Air Force. Hard to see that happening.

DukeSean
10-30-2009, 03:59 PM
I will just say though, that if Duke makes a bowl game, I am going to go, no ifs, ands, or buts. I may be poor nowadays, but being there would be priceless, and I'm determined to make it somehow, even if it was the Alaska Ice Bowl.

CameronBornAndBred
10-30-2009, 06:41 PM
I will just say though, that if Duke makes a bowl game, I am going to go, no ifs, ands, or buts. I may be poor nowadays, but being there would be priceless, and I'm determined to make it somehow, even if it was the Alaska Ice Bowl.
Ditto to everything you said. If we go bowling, I'm guessing there's gonna be some carpooling going on, and lots of blue in the stands. That is IF we make it. I think we are still a year out, but I'll still be proud sitting at home this year.

blazindw
10-30-2009, 06:57 PM
Dunno if Army is going to be bowl eligible, though. They need to beat Navy or Air Force at Air Force. Hard to see that happening.

This is true. If Army is not bowl eligible, I think the bowl can choose anyone, which could make for an intriguing matchup.

burnspbesq
10-31-2009, 08:20 AM
If Duke and Stanford both end up bowl-eligible, I would say it is a virtual certainty that they will play each other in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 26.

Indoor66
10-31-2009, 08:42 AM
If Duke and Stanford both end up bowl-eligible, I would say it is a virtual certainty that they will play each other in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 26.

And if unc and uk become bowl eligible, they will play in the toilet bowl in Kohler, WI.

killerleft
10-31-2009, 11:34 AM
San Francisco, Duke Football, AND a free bag o' nuts?! Superb!

California Dreamin', Let's Go Duke!

http://www.emeraldnuts.com/

CameronBornAndBred
10-31-2009, 01:03 PM
If Duke and Stanford both end up bowl-eligible, I would say it is a virtual certainty that they will play each other in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco on Dec. 26.
That would blow...in this economy, with the holidays, I don't see a big Duke presence. An besides...I already went to San Fran in June, so I'm done with that trip for a few years. :rolleyes:

CameronBornAndBred
11-03-2009, 11:03 AM
She can't make up her mind. In her season predictions that she made a day or two earlier, she said we would be home for the holidays. (Once she figured out that NCCU didn't count)
Ahhh, the fun of following useless predictions. HD has changed her mind yet again and lets us all concentrate on basketball for the end of the year.

Duvall
11-03-2009, 11:26 AM
Ahhh, the fun of following useless predictions. HD has changed her mind yet again and lets us all concentrate on basketball for the end of the year.

That's unfair, I think. It's completely reasonable to reevaluate UNC after their big road win, and Saturday is pretty much a bowl elimination game.

DukeSean
11-03-2009, 11:32 AM
That's unfair, I think. It's completely reasonable to reevaluate UNC after their big road win, and Saturday is pretty much a bowl elimination game.

But what has changed since her earlier prediction, with respect to Duke? We won a game @ UVA. Sure, UNC won @ VT, but if Duke controls its own destiny, like she keeps reiterating, then why would her bowl predictions change? Anyways, I'm still just beaming, being able to talk about even the possibility of a bowl game this late into the season.

sagegrouse
11-03-2009, 12:02 PM
The ACC has arrangements for teams playing in nine bowls (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4111912). There are four teams (aside from Duke) that seem unlikely to qualify:


MD (2-6) @NCS, VT, @FSU, BC
NCS (3-5) MD, Clem, @VT, UNC
UVa (3-5) @MIA, BC, @Clem, VT
WF (4-5)@GT, FSU, @Duke


For MD and UVa, the path seems to be nearly impossible. For State and WF, qualifying at 6-6 seems unlikely but possible. State would have to run the table at home and Wake would have to win at Duke (hah!) plus an upset against FSU or @GT.

I think the easiest way to sort this out is for Duke to win several more games and not State our worry about Hoos in our Wake.

sagegrouse

Duvall
11-03-2009, 12:03 PM
But what has changed since her earlier prediction, with respect to Duke? We won a game @ UVA. Sure, UNC won @ VT, but if Duke controls its own destiny, like she keeps reiterating, then why would her bowl predictions change?

Because she now thinks UNC is playing well enough to beat Duke at home.

CDu
11-03-2009, 12:50 PM
Because she now thinks UNC is playing well enough to beat Duke at home.

Exactly. Prior to last Thursday, it was reasonable to question if UNC could beat Duke. Now, we know that UNC has the talent to beat us. And if they do beat us (let's hope not), then it all but kills our chances. It's completely reasonable of Dinich to re-evaluate her predictions about UNC and about Duke after last week.

As for the idea that this weekend's game is effectively a bowl-elimination game for both teams, I slightly disagree. It's definitely the case for us, but not necessarily for UNC. If we win, we just have to hold serve against Wake and we're in. If we lose, I don't see us winning versus Ga Tech or @Miami, meaning we'd be out in the cold. However, UNC still has winnable games @BC (I'm not sold on BC) and @NC State, and getting Miami at home is even a possible win after beating Va Tech. They can still reasonably get two of three, whereas I think it'll be really difficult for us to win two of our last three.

I think it's a much bigger game to win for us than it is for UNC in terms of bowl chances. I can't wait for the game. It's crazy to be talking bowl eligibility for Duke in November!

blazindw
11-04-2009, 03:33 PM
Alright, here are the ACC Bowl Tie-Ins (I figured it would be good to sort out the still-possible bowl picture for us):

1st Choice - BCS - Likely Orange Bowl (Miami, Jan. 5th) - ACC Champion
2nd Choice - Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta, Dec. 31st)
3rd Choice - Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Jan. 1st)
4th Choice - Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando, Dec. 29th)
5th Choice-7th Choice (by mutual agreement) - Music City Bowl (Nashville, Dec. 27th), Meineke Car Care Bowl (Charlotte, Dec. 26th), Emerald Bowl (San Francisco, Dec. 26th). By rule, the ACC Championship Game runner-up will fall no lower than the Music City Bowl
8th Choice - EagleBank Bowl (DC, Dec. 29th)
9th Choice - GMAC Bowl (Mobile, Jan. 6th)

The way things are shaping up, there will probably only be 7 ACC teams that are bowl eligible. If we're one of them, that means we do no worse than the Emerald Bowl, and no ACC teams will be in DC or Mobile. We just need to keep playing well and winning, though, for this board to be something we are looking at in a few weeks!

arnie
11-04-2009, 07:52 PM
The ACC has arrangements for teams playing in nine bowls (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4111912). There are four teams (aside from Duke) that seem unlikely to qualify:


MD (2-6) @NCS, VT, @FSU, BC
NCS (3-5) MD, Clem, @VT, UNC
UVa (3-5) @MIA, BC, @Clem, VT
WF (4-5)@GT, FSU, @Duke


For MD and UVa, the path seems to be nearly impossible. For State and WF, qualifying at 6-6 seems unlikely but possible. State would have to run the table at home and Wake would have to win at Duke (hah!) plus an upset against FSU or @GT.

I think the easiest way to sort this out is for Duke to win several more games and not State our worry about Hoos in our Wake.

sagegrouse

State does not qualify with 6 wins - they played two subdivision teams. Their path is impossible - a typical State fan will say, can't wait till BBall seaon.

CEF1959
11-04-2009, 07:57 PM
The bowl permutations in college football make my head hurt. It's all I can handle to remember that Duke needs two more wins. When that looks likely, I'll come back to the possible bowls, in which case that summary will be very helpful. [So thanks for taking the time].