Top movies of summer 2007

[JasonEvans]

What will be really big at the boxoffice-- vote for your top 5.

-Jason

[hc5duke]

I'm voting for Kickin It Old Skool (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickin%27_It_Old_Skool), despite the fact that there already was a South Park episode like it. It's difficult for me to admit this, but I'm a closet fan of Malibu's Most Wanted :cool:

[JasonEvans]

I'm a little surprised there are no votes for Evan Almighty so far. That will be the funniest movie of the summer. I have a hard time figuring out which movie it replaces in the top 5, but it is PG and if they keep the humor mostly clean they could get a nice family crowd too.

If the Christian Right decides it is not blasphemous but is good for people's faith in God then it will be the #1 movie of the summer.

Damn-- I voted too soon.

-Jason "oh well, I can't figure out which of the huge sequels plus Rat that I would leave out of the Top 5 anyway" Evans

[Clipsfan]

I doubt that Die Hard will be in the top 5, but maybe it should have been on the list to be ignored :)

Unfortunately, the question isn't which 5 movies will be best, but rather which ones will get people to flock in droves? Die Hard fits neither category, I guess.

[Clipsfan]

A decent number of people voted in this thread, but very few stated anything regarding their opinions. At my work we're having a pool to choose the top movies, and I'm torn as to what order to put them in (not to mention the 5th one). The tie-breaker will be the biggest opening weekend (movie and total), but I'm guessing that will be Spiderman this coming weekend (probably close to the $135MM or so that Pirates brought in last year).

Here are my thoughts on the biggest 5, I'd love to hear others. I'm only talking domestic, btw.

1) Spiderman 3 - People love the franchise. The second movie actually did better than the first, and everyone knows how much was spent on the special effects for this one. Supposedly not a great story, but people will still see it. It's the first big movie to hit the theaters in a while, and after having few choices other than Disturbia people will flock to see it. It has 2 full weekends to bring in the money.

2) Pirates - Hard to argue with the franchise that just keeps bringing in the $$$. However, the second one wasn't all that great, and there may be only so much prancing that people want to watch Depp do. Also head to head with Shrek's second weekend.

3) Shrek - Will suffer slightly from facing off against Pirates, even though the two aim for slightly different demos. The key issue is that there should be a longer tail for Shrek, so it may start off slower but retain some momentum. Shrek 2's multiple was around 4X opening B.O.

4) Harry Potter - I'm not sure whether this should be higher, but it only has one weekend to itself and many people may spend time reading the 7th book the second weekend anyway, rather than watching the movie. I find it hard to care enough to watch the movies when they're on HBO, and BO has never been as large as the prequels to the movies above (last was around $290MM).

5) Really hard for me to call. Most likely are: Evan Almighty, Ratatouille, Transformers. Transformers is likely to bring in big bucks over the 4th, but I don't see much staying power. Evan Almighty's trailer just doesn't look that great to me, and although Carell has some cache now, he's not the sort to drive a $250MM movie. I know nothing about Rat, although Pixar movies tend to clean house. Should any of these even be higher?

Any thoughts are welcome!

[Udaman]

I think Spidey will clean up because it has two weekends with no competition...and then still has two more of the busy May period, including Memorial Day weekend. And when people can't get into Shrek May 18th, they'll go see Spidey. When they can't get into Pirates, or Shrek May 25th...they'll go see Spidey. So I would have Spidey #1. Even if some reviews are coming in mixed.

#2 I have Pirates. Fact is the 2nd one did $423M, and it got panned by most critics (I actually liked it OK, especially after reading the negative reviews). This one also opens on a big weekend, then has nothing after it for a while. The week after is nothing. Two weeks after is just Oceans 11 (not a family flick). Three weeks afterwards is Fantastic Four...but when that sells out, people will go see Pirates.

#3 will be Shrek. Just too solid a franchise not to do well, and they seem to have this down right. Plus it is the one truly kid flick out until June 29th.

so that leaves #4 and #5, and here is where it gets tough. You really have Evan Almighty, Harry Potter, Transformers, Ratatouille, The Simpsons Movie, Fantastic Four and Oceans 11 fighting for these. I would vote off Oceans 11 because of its lack of appeal to kids. I think Harry Potter will have a huge opening...but then struggle when everyone is reading the book (as you mention). Fantastic Four will do OK, but after it comes out there are major movies four weekends in a row to steal its audience. So then you have Evan Almighty, Transformers, Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie. My vote is Evan Almighty (look at how well Bruce Almighty did) and The Transformers. I think Ratatouille will be hurt by the fact that there have been a lot of rat movies for kids, and it has major competition the next few weeks.

[Clipsfan]

I submitted my responses. For the record, they didn't change much from my thoughts above, and at least one other person here has the same choices.

Spidey
Pirates
Shrek
Potter
Evan Almighty

Biggest 3-day weekend: $137.64MM (I'm guessing it will be this weekend)

Let's see if I'm right :)

[JasonEvans]

This is really hard-- naming the top 5 is easy, in my opinion, but putting them in order. That's a lot tougher.

1. I'm gonna go with Spiderman here. The film is shattering boxoffice records all over the world already and having 2 weekends to make its mark is a huge bonus. Plus, by leading off the summer it benefits from the pent up demand for a good new movie (nothign worth a damn has been released in a long time). Lots of folks talk about it having 2 weeks beore Shrek comes out but I think the real competition for a teen-young adult skewing movie like this won't come for another week when Pirates opens. Shrek skews much younger than Spiderman so I could see Spidey being north of $120 million the first weekend, $70 million the second, and above $40 million the third weekend. That's just too big a headstart on the rest of the competition.

2. Pirates - Like Spidey, Pirates will get 2 weekends without much competition. The buzz on this one is really strong even with the last one being so mediocre. If a so-so Pirates could do $420 million, what will a good one do?!?! If any movie beats Spidey, it will be this one. I am really tempted to flip-flop these two in my picks. The advantage that Pirates has on EVERYTHING else is that this franchise has shown strength in all demographics. It does not overskew male or female or young or old-- everyone likes Capt. Jack and his mates.

3. Shrek 3 - They've hit 2 homeruns and there is no reason not to think they will hit a third. Number 2 was actually a far bigger success than the first one was. I have not been overwhelmed with the trailer though and I wodner if the youngsters who fell in love with the first two are getting too old for Shrek to be cool to them anymore (my 10-year-old is lukewarm on this film). Still, they've done such a good job making the jokes work for adults, this has got to be a huge flick. I also think the stunt casting of Justin Timberlake as Artie (young King Arthur) could help with boxoffice a little bit. By the way, Shrek 4 is already in the works.

4. Potter 5 - I think this movie will set an opening weekend record. Right now the oepning weekend record is held by Pirates 2 with $135 million. I think Spidey or Pirates 3 will have a good chance to top that. But, whatever the record is, I think Potter 5 will top it. The Potter-mania will be out-of-control by the time this flick opens. Everyone will be dying for the 7th book and will take the 5th movie as an appetizer. Plus, the trailer looks fabulous. What's more, I think all the tak of the 2nd weekend sucking as folks read the book are overblown. Lots of people who read the book will take a break from reading to go to the theater. And I think that after the book is done, people will be so Potter crazed that this film could have a big third weekend. While I am predicitng 4th place for it, I won't be surprised if it finishes as high as 2nd.

5. Ok, everyone says this is the tough pick (though I disagree). Last year the #5 film of the summer made $200 million (Superman). This summer it may take a little bit more than $200 mill to take the #5 spot so we have to see which film can reach that lofty figure.

Evan Almighty will be the funniest movie of the summer but adult comedies rarly reach that kind of level. Bruce Almighty did $240 million but Steve Carrell is no Jim Carey. I think Evan Almighy has a decent chance to get to #5, but will come up just a little bit short.

Transformers and Fantastic Four have just a little too much cheeze-factor to bring in women or the over 30-set. I actually think Transformers could be the bomb of the summer (only make about $120 million) because teen boys may consider it too young a film to be cool.

The Simpsons attracts less than 7 million viewers a week when it airs for free on TV. If every one of them goes to the movies, that's just a $70 million dollar boxoffice take. For that film to top $200 million it would need to hit 3x as many people as it does when it airs on TV. That's a tall order.

And all that leads us to Ratatouille. As you all know, I love writer/director Brad Bird. He's brilliant and I think this movie will be excellent. But even if he was not involved, this would be my pick. If we are looking for a film to make $240+ million then how can we not pick the Pixar film? The only Pixar films not to top $240 million are Toy Story ($191 mill in 1995) and A Bug's Life ($162 mill in 1998). Adjust those two for rampant ticket inflation and they are each up in the $300 million range. Heck, Cars was a disappointment for a Pixar film and it made $244 million. If Ratatouille is better than Cars it will be up close to $300 million. In fact, if a couple of the super-sequels disappoint a bit, Rat could climb into the top 2 or 3 for the summer.

Sorry I took so long with this post. Putting these 5 in order is a real challenge, but I think these 5 are the top 5 for sure.

-Jason "this will be easily the biggest summer in Hollywood history" Evans

[watzone]

Well, I talked to the Patterson's and they said ... okay, I am kidding.

I think your top four are locks. With the Simpsons being a tad dated and Transformers much the same, I talked to the P's (so I am not kidding) and will go with Transformers as my fifth pick. I feel pretty good about this too. So, I will commit to Transformers at number five.

[Deslok]

We all seem to agree on the top 2 of Pirates and Spiderman. Though I think that will be the order rather than the reverse. The soso reviews for Spiderman plus the lack of popular involvement in the story line(compared with Harry Potter and Pirates, everyone has seen the movies and wants to know how the story arc turns out, Spiderman movies have been more standalones where if people didn't catch the movie, they wouldn't feel they missed out on the end of the story or some such... how's that for a parenthetical comment?) will knock Spiderman 3 down just a peg so that Pirates will take the top slot. Add in that while Spiderman has the benefit of the early uncontested opening, Pirates will be hitting the prime spot for young adult repeat viewings as kids are being let out of school.

I also disagree with most about what will be 3rd. I'll be surprised if Shrek finishes within $50 million of Harry Potter. This summer is going to be a frenzy of Potter publicity and I think its possible it could dislodge one of the top 2 from its slot. It also has the 2nd half of July mostly to itself after the slew of big releases in May/June. To me those 3 are the clear top 3, with a broad audience appeal. Shrek will take the 4th slot, and is the last of the sure fire $200 million pictures. The final slot I think will go to Transformers. Big publicity push and a July 4th opening will generate big enough numbers to slot it ahead of the rest of the field.

[Clipsfan]

I had a really hard time choosing between Ratatouille and Evan Almighty, and Jason's logic is making me second guess my entry. I'll have to stick by my guns and hope that Evan Almighty is the sort of movie that people see 5 weeks after it came out because there aren't many comedies out (I have no choice, I turned in my entry already!)

[JasonEvans]

I am shocked that so many of you don't think Rat will be among the top 5. Are you all expecting it to be far and away the lowest grossing Pixar film (adj. for inflation) ever?

What is this belief that Transformers will be huge? I really think that movie will open big (80+ million) and then just die. Its appeal is so limited. No one over the age of 40 will go see it, no females will go see it, teens think of Transformers as baby toys. Do you really think the 20-ish male audience can drive it to $200+ million?!?!

By the time it opens, the cool effects that are wowing us in the trailer will seem old hat after watching Pirates and Spidey.

-Jason "like I said, the top 5 feel like a lock to me" Evans

[willywoody]

what the hell is an evan almighty?


it's already lagging as i have never heard of it.

[Udaman]

Jason - I agree that Pixar knocks things out of the park. And the writer is top notch. But my feeling is that kids are sort of "ratted out." In the past year you have had Flushed Away - which didn't do that well. Also there have been a large number of animal animated movies in a row. Over the Hedge, Open Season, Happy Feet, Charlotte's Web, Open Range....That and the reviews for Ratatouille look sort of boring (and geared towards adults).

I think this one will disappoint. Cars had the allure of being something different. So did Finding Nemo, Toy Story, A Bugs Life, etc. They've always been on the cutting edge. Ratatouille doesn't seem original. Put it this way...my kids were clamoring to see Cars a year before it came out. They are much more pumped to see Shrek and Surfs Up - at least right now.

I will agree with you on Pirates, however...I think it actually does beat Spidey. But Harry Potter...I'm not sold on. Of all the books, this one was my least favorite. It will have a HUGE opening, on that you and I agree. But...once people read the book, they'll know what happens to Harry and Voldemort...and perhaps the movies will take a hit because of that. In fact, I bet Half Blood Prince will really struggle (the suspense of who it is will be done...the suspense of is Snape good or bad will be done), until Deathly Hallows comes out and blows them all away as it will be the last farewell for Harry Potter.

So, my top 5 (final answer) is: Pirates, Spidey, Shrek, Evan Almighty (don't forget the religious groups that will watch this) and Transformers.

[JasonEvans]

what the hell is an evan almighty?

it's already lagging as i have never heard of it.

Sorta a sequel to Bruce Almighty. Steve Carrell gets to play a modern-day Noah.

Check out the trailers: http://www.apple.com/trailers/universal/evanalmighty/hd/

[Udaman]

By the way, the biggest theater in Durham (Streets at Southpoint) has Spidey opening up ON SIX SCREENS. That is unheard of down here. From 7-9 tomorrow night, you have a choice of Spidey, Blades of Glory, The Condemned, Fracture, Hot Fuzz, or Next. That is it.

After 10 p.m. it is Spidey, Blades of Glory, Lucky You, Next, or Perfect Stranger.

Maybe Spidey ends up the biggest money maker just because there's literally nothing else to see. When Pirates opens up there will still be Spidey, and Shrek.

(note - I'm not changing my picks. Last response said Final Answer...so no going back)

(note - this is not me in any way trying to steal Jason's copyrighted signature)

[05dukie]

At least one female is excited about Transformers. Can't wait!

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting debate, especially since I don't have a strong opinion about most of these films.

The one I'll be most intrigued to see how it does is "Transformers"

On the surface, it's absolutely unattractive -- a live-action version of a kiddie toy/cartoon show ... you might as well try to drag me to the new Mutant Ninja Turtles movie ... ugh.

On the other hand, it has the best trailer of the season and one of the best I've ever seen. That makes me think about the two parts of a movie's success -- marketing and word-of-mouth.

I think most summer films are relatively immune to professional criticism. So what if Pauline Kael and Robert Ebert don't like Spidy or Pirates? Their opinions matter on adult drama and maybe some adult comedy (does Evan Almighty qualify as adult comedy? To my mind, the first one didn't, but that was a Jim Carey film).

I think marketing is the key to the first weekend. The sequels -- Spidey, Pirates, Shrek and Potter -- all have huge, built-in first-weekend audiences. The limiting factors are which get the 3-day weekends and what competition they face. They quality of the film has little to do with a film that opens in a million theaters on the same day.

I think Transformers will open well solely on the basis of its trailer, kind of like Independence Day once did (IMO, the single most successful trailer in motion picture history).

But that's why criticism means so little. All of these films are guaranteed a huge opening ... nothing the critics say is going to change that.

The real measure of the top hits will be the quality of the entertainment they deliver. And it's not what I think or the critics think, but what the 15-year-old boy who might see his favorite picture 10-15 times and tell all his buddies, "You've got to see this, dude" (do 15 year olds still say, Dude?) ... or in the case of "Titanic" the 15-year-old girls who go over and over and tell all their friends.

I know it sounds simplistic, but I think the ultimate rank of these films pretty much depends on which ones entertain their target audiences the most.

Transformers will be a big hit if -- and only if -- the movie delivers on its trailer. Of all the films this summer, that's the one that will be easiest to judge by its second weekend. Independence Day exploded on the 4th of July ... but kept rumbling through the rest of the summer because it was a two-hour thrill ride. I wonder if Transformers will do the same?

[Clipsfan]

Having seen the crap that's done well (e.g. Ghost Rider, Wilds Hogs) I can't help but think that it is more than entertaining the people that makes a movie do well. I thought the last Pirates movie was awful, but it still brought in more than $400MM in the US. I fell asleep watching it in the theater...

[Olympic Fan]

Clipsfan,

Believe me ... I agree with you about the quality of these summer films. But I'm in my 50s and I find most of these films juvenile.

But the summer audience isn't made up of thinking adults. It's targeted at 13-20 teens -- mostly boys (although Depp and Bloom may bring in the girls too). I thought Pirates sucked, but obviously those teens didn't.

The interesting one in that regard are the Harry Potter movies. The books became a phenom almost a decade ago and the target audience was 10-15 years old. That group is now young adults. Are they still Potter fanatics? Or do the books grab a new group of kids every year?

I really don't know, although it's clear that the books have become more mature (and darker) as the series has progressed. I can see a generation of pre-teens growing up with the series through their teen and young adult years ... I have a harder time thinking that every year, a few million new 9-10-11 year olds discover "The Sorcerer's Stone" and go from there.

[Clipsfan]

It appears that my fairly aggressive (and record-setting) estimate of $137.6 million in domestic box office for the past weekend was low. Early estimates are that Spidey pulled in $148 million, setting individual records for the highest box office ever on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. With another weekend with no competition (Go see 28 Weeks Later!) Spidey should continue to rack in the $$.

[JasonEvans]

Of the 65 people to vote in our poll, only 59 picked Spiderman as one of the 3 top grossing moves if the summer.

If you are one of the 6 who did not vote for Spidey, I'd love to hear your rationalle at this point...

...And can I have some of what you are smoking?

-Jason "it will be over 250 million by the end of next weekend" Evans

[Dukerati]

I agree with Udaman's point about the recent overabundance of animated films with animals which was the deciding factor for me of Transformers over Ratatouille. I also like the fact that Transformers already has a huge built-in audience from all who watched the show as kids (me among them) in addition to Shia LeBouf who I am guessing will draw in even more of the all-important younger demographic...

[Clipsfan]

-Jason "it will be over 250 million by the end of next weekend" Evans

I think that's a very safe guess, considering that it's already at $161MM and somehow brought in $10MM yesterday (on a Monday, not during summer!) That's more than any movie brought in the prior weekend!

[Udaman]

Hard to argue with making $242M after only 10 days...but this weekend saw a 60% drop for Spidey, and the studio can spin it all they want...but fact is that is pretty big.

This weekend they have Shrek, which will dominate, and next weekend comes Pirates, which targets the Spidey audience big time.

Fact is, I don't see Spidey 3 beating either Spidey 2 or the original in total box office take. Not surprising...because it wasn't that good (at least in my opinion). Put it this way - I saw both Spidey and Spidey 2 twice at the theaters. I also own both on DVD. No way will I see 3 again, and doubt very seriously I will buy it. I think many others are in this boat as well.

[Cavlaw]

Well, I'm one of the folks who hasn't seen Spiderman yet. I believe I will eventually see it in theaters, although I lost a lot of excitement for it way back when I heard they had gone with the multi-villan angle that has pitifully diluted and ruined pretty much every franchise that's done it, and the lukewarm reviews don't help.

My wife and I just don't go to the theater very often, and I had hoped to go for Spidey. After spending the last 4 weeks in the office I think I see a break in the clouds coming up this weekend... right when Shrek opens. I think Shrek wins that one. Then Pirates opens, and I htink it's a coin flip between Spiderman and Pirate - as unenthused as I've become about spidey lately, Pirates 2 has me down on that, too. I may end up not seeing either until they come out on DVD or HBO...

[JasonEvans]

Hard to argue with making $242M after only 10 days...but this weekend saw a 60% drop for Spidey, and the studio can spin it all they want...but fact is that is pretty big.

This weekend they have Shrek, which will dominate, and next weekend comes Pirates, which targets the Spidey audience big time.

Fact is, I don't see Spidey 3 beating either Spidey 2 or the original in total box office take. Not surprising...because it wasn't that good (at least in my opinion). Put it this way - I saw both Spidey and Spidey 2 twice at the theaters. I also own both on DVD. No way will I see 3 again, and doubt very seriously I will buy it. I think many others are in this boat as well.

I agree that this was a very tough weekend for Spidey. The dropoff speaks to some poor word-of-mouth and not much repeat business.

Spidey will still end up making something in the range of $350 million and will easily be one of the top 5 movies of the summer, but I don't think it will pierce $400 million and I think it will end up as the #2 or #3 movie of the summer overall. It is a huge success, but also has to be seen as a disappointment.

If I was Toby M, Dunst, or Sam Rami I would have no interest at all in doing a 4th one. Sony may throw obscene money at them to try it, but I think they'd be wise to stop here.

-Jason "I am seeing a sneak of Shrek this week-- early word of mouth is not all that great" Evans

[Udaman]

Spidey was down another 50% this weekend. Basically stick a fork in it.

It might (though highly doubtful) end up catching Spidey 2, which came in at $373M. Right now it is sitting at $281, and with the bad reviews, Shrek 3 and now Pirates coming at it full blast, next weekend it will likely make less than $20M. It has zero chance of catching the first one (at $403M).

The two big questions to me now are:

1) Will Shrek 3 do better overall than Spidey 2? Too close to call. I don't think Shrek will drop 60% (like Spidey did)....but a portion of the audience will be taken from Pirates, and then 2 weeks later Surf's Up comes out (and then Fantastic Four, and then 2 weeks later Ratatouille). My prediction, Shrek does $65M next weekend, then $40M the week after that. In the end, these two movies will be neck and neck for total box office take - my guess is Shrek will barely win.

2) How much will Pirates end up doing? It all depends upon reviews. If people like this last one - it should beat both Shrek and Spidey (something I think will happen). I do bet it has an opening of about $125M, and only falls about 30% in week 2 (to around $80M).

Still feel the top 5 will be Pirates, Shrek, Spidey, Evan and Transformers

[JasonEvans]

I thought it was time to bring this post back to the top of the board again to see how folks did in their predictions. Pretty much everyone picke the three obvious ones (Shrek, Spider, Pirates) that all look to be top 5. Anyone who picked Oceans 13 is not doing well. Fantastic Four looks like it will probably come up short too. As others have mentioned, the reviews for Evan look horrid.

Hmmm, need to look at this some more to figure it out. My top 5 are still alive as I had the Threequels plus Rat and Harry Potter.

-Jason "on vacation... back on Monday" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Still feel the top 5 will be Pirates, Shrek, Spidey, Evan and Transformers

Care to revise that, Udaman? Evan is going to struggle to get to $150 million (I bet it stalls around $125-$135 million).

I must admit, after poo-pooing Transformers during the pre-summer discussion, I think it is going to be a big hit. The early reviews are very strong and the public is starving for a good sci-fi thrill ride after action-adventure stories like Pirates and Spidey were disappointing.

I think it is going to come down to Rats vs. Robots for the fifth movie in the top 5.

I think Potter 5 is a virtual sure-thing for our top 5. There is yet to be a Potter movie that made less than $250 million and this one is going to benefit from the massive hype of the 7th book coming out. It will be interesting to see what director David Yates does with this film. He is not a known commodity in Hollywood but has a reputation as a brilliant director in the UK (apparently, JK asked for him as she loved his work on TV).

Rats vs. Robots-- which will make more?

-Jason "again, I saw Ratatouille a few weeks ago and it was fabulous!" Evans

[Dukerati]

I agree with Jason on Potter. I thought it was a shoo-in for the top 5 at the start of the summer and the slowly building crescendo of hype has me feeling good about its chances.

If Robots win (and I am predicting it will), I would have been spot on with my movie predictions. I must admit that I am surprised at how well Ratatouille has been received (although I shouldn't have been - I didn't bother to check that Brad Bird had written it - stupid! stupid! stupid!) but I was scared off by the relatively lukewarm success of Pixar's previous film, Cars, and thought it might become a bit of a trend.

Go autobots!

[DevilAlumna]

What is this belief that Transformers will be huge? I really think that movie will open big (80+ million) and then just die. Its appeal is so limited. No one over the age of 40 will go see it, no females will go see it, teens think of Transformers as baby toys. Do you really think the 20-ish male audience can drive it to $200+ million?!?!


I must admit, after poo-pooing Transformers during the pre-summer discussion, I think it is going to be a big hit. The early reviews are very strong and the public is starving for a good sci-fi thrill ride after action-adventure stories like Pirates and Spidey were disappointing.


Wow - I watched the HBO "First Look" for Transformers, and have totally done a 180. I never watched the cartoon, so have no attachment to to concept whatsoever (I was more a He-Man/She-Ra fan.) My husband & I made a deal that he would go see "Knocked up" with me, and I would in kind see "Transformers" with him.

But after watching the special, I can't wait to see it! I didn't realize what a good cast it has (no guarantees of greatness, but still a good sign), and after seeing some of the machines, plus the special effects that enhance them, it looks like something not to be missed on the big screen. Color me impressed.

After seeing a few more trailers/reviews for Die Hard 12, I'm a little more positive about it; I'm also beginning to wonder if Potter's going to be too dark for younger audiences, and too grim for a summer crowd in general. All this talk of Daniel Radcliffe exploring Harry's moody, emotional side just doesn't scream out, "fun!" :cool:

[Cavlaw]

The reviews I've seen have pegged it as a pleasant surprise, but without staying power and no appeal for a second viewing. It's not one I plan to see, but might do very well in the first couple weeks based on the hype.

[DevilAlumna]

We've got tickets to see Transformers tonight; I'll post my thoughts tomorrow.

[Udaman]

Missed the boat on Evan Almighty, that's for sure (pa dum dum). The only good thing about it, is that I saw it after reading all the massively negative reviews, and thus went in with rock bottom expectations, and then sort of enjoyed it. But...only because it wasn't as bad as I was thinking it would be.

A real shame - that premise could have been great. (Spoilers) The biggest disappointment by far was the lack of religious believers around. I mean, if a guy starts building an ark and suddenly lots of animals show up in pairs, there would be thousands and thousands of followers there. Guess they couldn't really do that...but to not even address it made the show seem really dumb. That, and the fact that everyone kept saying Evan was crazy, when clearly they could see that a beard doesn't grow in 1 day, that animals don't follow people around, and that building an ark in a week is impossible. That, and the fact that Evan was completely different than in the first film.....yes, I could go on and on.

So Spidey, Shrek and Pirates are a sure thing. I'm thinking Transformers will be top 5 for sure as well. That leaves one spot. Most seem to feel it will be Harry Potter (and that is the best bet)...but I still think that the last book will really hurt their sales, and that of all the books, #5 was the least favorite of a bunch of people I know. It will all depend on the opening weekend. If it pulls in north of $90M, then it will finish in the top 5. If not, then it will be between the rat, Bourne Ultimatum and Homer Simpson.

[mapei]

Every one of these movies seems dreadful to me! They seem all made for restless teenagers - or younger. Compare to the thread on all-time greats that we did some weeks ago.

[dukestheheat]

Jason!

What about 'Surf's Up!'? I laughed my head off at that one, on a day when I needed to laugh my head off. In fact, I need that today. I'm a total kid at heart and heck I even do stuff that you'd think was 'kidly', so I'm going to like that type of movie. I bet if you added it to the poll (which I know is closed) you'd get some votes. If you haven't taken your fam to see it, I do recommend it.

dth.

[JasonEvans]

Oh it will fall more than 25% each weekend-- probably more like a 35-40% drop next weekend, which would still be very strong as most movies drop 50% their second weekend.

But, just in case you were not aware, people go to see movies Monday - Thursday in addition to the weekends. Ratatouille will make about $4 million a day over the next 4 days before next weekend.

I stand by my prediction that it will get to $200 million. I think it may come up short of $250 million, which is a real pity and surprises me quite a bit. I think word of mouth will help it a lot though and it will remain strong for a long time -- well into August when kids go back to school. This is the kind of flick that will do repeat business.

Check back with me in a month and we'll see if it is going to make it to $200 mill. I think you'll be surprised.

-Jason "word of mouth on Rat will be BIG" Evans

First of all, I was 50-50 on my Rat predicitons. It did a ton better during the week than I thought, pulling in 7-10 million a day, almost twice what I predicted and a clear sign that word of mouth is going well.

I was dead on target with my prediction of what the 2nd weekend would be. Rat dropped 38% and made almmost $30 million in its 2nd weekend. It is now at $109 million and still going pretty strong. Harry Potter skews older but will be tough competition next week. Still, I think the strength of Potter may be a good thing for Potter fans as families with kids under 10 who go to the theater and find Potter sold out will be more likely to default to Rat as a backup versus anything else in theaters today. In any event, I feel even better about my $200 prediction today than I did a week ago.

That said, I am ready to concede that I missed on one of the top 5 movies of the summer. Transformers is clearly going to get into the top 5. I blew it on that one. This flick is going to be huge. It has now passed $152 million in one week of release and did $67 million over the weekend despite opening on Monday. This flick is going to soar past $250 million and may end up around $300 million. I don't think it can catch Spidey for the year's #1 film, but it could still catch Pirates (will end up just a little north of $300 mil) and maybe even Shrek (will end up close to $320 mil).

Potter opens next week. The reviews are pretty good so far but the Potter story is becoming more and more a drama and less fantasy and action starting with this book. The story also gets darker and more somber here so I think this film may have trouble doing massive business. I still think it will make more than $200 million, probably around $250 million. I'll be able to guage it a lot more after Monday night, when I see an early screening of it. Yes, I am a lucky man ;)

Will there be anything else to challenge the 6 top films of summer (Rat, Potter, Transformers, and the 3 threequels)?

Die Hard is a fun ride (wife nad I saw it last night) but it is currently at $84 million in total boxoffice after doing $17 million this weekend. It is going to be a success (it will be very big overseas), but I don't see it getting to where these other 6 do. Knocked Up (#132 mill/5 mill this weekend) and Fantastic Four (123 mill/4 mill this weekend)) both look like they are going to stall short of $150 million.

Simpsons, Bourne Supremacy, and Rush Hour 3 are the only other contenders and I don't see any of those getting to the $200 mill needed to crack the top 5 (or top 6).

-Jason "as an aside, I saw about 15 minutes worth of Sunshine a few days ago and it looks amazing!! I am a big Danny Boyle fan and like Cillian Murphy too" Evans

[Udaman]

So Potter is now a lock for the top 5. That leaves really one spot (because the others are Spidey, Shrek and Pirates).

Right now the best bet is the Rat (though $200M still looks really iffy) - if it falls 35% a week from here on out...it will likely end right around that mark, any more and it doesn't make it.

No other movie out now has a chance to get into the top 5, so it would have to be The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum.

Incidentally, saw Potter for the 2nd time, and it was still just as good in my opinion. This movie could finish 2nd for the summer (though I still think the book will hurt things this coming weekend).

[JasonEvans]

So Potter is now a lock for the top 5. That leaves really one spot (because the others are Spidey, Shrek and Pirates).

Right now the best bet is the Rat (though $200M still looks really iffy) - if it falls 35% a week from here on out...it will likely end right around that mark, any more and it doesn't make it.

No other movie out now has a chance to get into the top 5, so it would have to be The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum.

Incidentally, saw Potter for the 2nd time, and it was still just as good in my opinion. This movie could finish 2nd for the summer (though I still think the book will hurt things this coming weekend).

Huh? What about Transformers? I have now conceded that it will be in the top 5. I was wrong on that one. I think it stays ahead of Rat all summer long. Rat will top $200 million, but Transformers will get well past $250 and will probably come very close to touching the $300 mark.

We know the Top 5, IMO, all that is left is the order. I think Transformers comes up short of Spidey and Shrek but maybe passes Pirates. Still too early to tell what happens to Potter going forward but I don't think it will pass $300 million. I bet it ends up 4th or 5th out of the top 5.

Rat comes in 6th.

--Jason "pity, cause I think Rat is easily the best film of any of them" Evans

[Udaman]

Jason, Yep - my bad. Yesterday, I totally forgot Transformers.

The top 5 does appear to be a lock now, though the final order is harder to predict. I can't see The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum doing north of $200M, and all the other 5 (Spidey, Shrek, Pirates, Transformers and Potter) will be in the upper $200 range when all is said and done.

Incidentally, thus far if I had to rank the movie's in order of what I liked, my current ranking would be:

Top Tier - Full Price
1. Die Hard
2. Harry Potter
3. Ratatouille
4. Knocked Up

Next Level - Worth Matinee
5. Oceans 13
6. Transformers
7. Surfs Up
8. Pirates
9. Shrek
10. Spidey

Next Level - Wait for DVD
11. Evan Almighty
12. 28 Weeks Later

Next Level - Wait for Free TV or HBO
13. Fantastic Four

[DevilAlumna]

Hey, so where does this all stand now? I've kind of been out of the box office loop.

Will Simpsons, Bourne (still tbr) or Potter knock off any of the early frontrunners?

What's upcoming for the last, before-school-starts weekend?

[Olympic Fan]

I just happened to be browsing box office numbers and after last weekend (Aug. 4-5), I have to say I'm impressed with the DBR voters pre-summer poll. If you remember, those who voted (I didn't) predicted the top five summer blockbusters as (in order):

1. Spiderman 3
2. Harry Potter 5
3. Shrek 3
4. Pirates 3
5. The Simpsons
(6) Transformers

As it stands after last weekend (with last weekend's totals in parenthesis):

1. Spiderman 3 336 million (0.1 million)
2. Shrek 3 320 million (0.5 million)
3. Pirates 3 307 million (0.2 million)
4. Transformers 296 million (6.0 million)
5. Harry Potter 5 261 million (9.5 million)
6. Ratatouille 188 million (4 million)
7. Knocked Up 146 million (0.5 million)
8. Die Hard 130 million (1.5 million)
9. Fantastic Four 130 million (0.3 million)
10. The Simpsons 128 million (25.1 million)
11. Oceans 13 115 million (0.1 million)
12. Evan Almighty 97 million (0.4 million)

-- I'm just talking summer movies. For the yearly rank, you have to include 300 (210 million) and Wild Hogs (165 mllion).

-- Two recent releases have a chance to crack the top 10 -- The Bourne Ultimatum had a great opening weekend (69 million) and will almost certainly crack the 150 million mark, probably 200 million. Also Hairspray (79 million in three weeks, 9.2 million last week) will top 100 and could crack the top 10.

-- The obvious movie to watch from the current top 10 is the Simpsons Movie. It will clearly climb past Fantastic Four, Die Hard and Knocked Up. I think it will catch Ratatouille ...

-- Harry Potter also has legs -- the speculation that the release of the book would kill the box office for the movie turned out to be wrong. I think it passes Pirates ... can it catch Shrek (as our pollsters predicted?)

-- To me, the list shows that the summer's big flop was Evan Almighty (can a $100 million movie be a flop?) ... at least it most underperformed our predictions and the surprise hit was Knocked Up.

Just guessing now, it seems clear to me to exactly five summer films will finish at $300 million plus -- Spiderman, Shrek, Pirates, Potter and Transformers ...

Our pollsters got four of five and just missed the fifth. And who knows, it's not impossible that the Simpsons will catch and pass the Transformers (although I think that's unlikely).

Good job, people!

[Dukerati]

Thanks for the update Olympic! Who got all five movies right? I know I did:D

[JasonEvans]

After the huge opening week, Simpsons really fell off hard last weekend (down 66%). That is a bad sign. I think it will struggle to get to $200 million.

That said, it has been an amazing summer from a boxoffice standpoint. 4 films are locks to make $300 million and Potter 5 has a shot at making it 5. If it had not been released so late in the summer, Bourne 3 would have a shot at $300 million too, I think. Sadly, people stop going to the movies after kids go back to school and that may kill Bourne's chance. Still, Bourne will be another $200 million flick-- probably the 7th or 8th of this summer.

Compare that to last summer when we had 5 $200 million flicks over the summer and only one $300 million film.

It is also worth noting that July of 2007 was the biggest month in Hollywood history, with $1.3 billion worth of tickets sold. July of last year had been the all-time leader though it was well behind this July with just $1.15 billion of ticket sales.

2007 is shaping up as the best year ever for Hollywood. YTD, we are currently 2.7% ahead of 2004, which is the best year in Hollywood history. 2007 is so far 6.5% ahead of 2006 and a stunning 12.8% ahead of 2005.

Strangely, as has been noted, it has not been a summer of surprises though. The movies everyone expected to be hits largely were hits. The only unknown film to make a splash has been Knocked Up. The only films that did much worse than expectations are Evan Almighty and Oceans 13. Oh well, I guess predictible is ok.

-Jason "you could maybe call Ratatouille a disappointment -- which is funny cause I think it was one of the better movies of the summer" Evans

[watzone]

I got lucky with the Transformers and went five for five. Thats better than winning the World Cup Pool. Okay, I'm woofing;) There are indeed some movie buffs here. BTW, Bourne is a wondeful escape.

[Bluedawg]

I intend to see, although i have not yet,

Harry Potter 5, Pirates 3, and Evan Almighty. The jury is out on if I'll see Transformers

I have no desire to see, Simpsons Movie, Shrek 3, or Ratatouille

Spiderman 3 I enjoyed, thoguht it was a bit long in places. I loved Fantastic Four 2 and i'm surprised it didn't do better. I also really enjoyed Oceans 13. granted you had to really keep up to follow it, but that is what I liked.

[TillyGalore]

Jason,
I'm interested in a couple of movies that will be coming out soon, "Death at a Funeral," "Becoming Jane," and "Invasion. Have you heard anything or know anything about any of these movies? "Death at a Funeral" looks hilarious, but I wonder if the previews are the only thing funny.

Thanks in advance for your input.

TG

[Bluedawg]

Jason,
I'm interested in a couple of movies that will be coming out soon, "Death at a Funeral," "Becoming Jane," and "Invasion. Have you heard anything or know anything about any of these movies? "Death at a Funeral" looks hilarious, but I wonder if the previews are the only thing funny.

Thanks in advance for your input.

TG

Add to this a movie already out "I know who killed me" [Trailer (http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/iknowwhokilledme/high.html)]with Lindsey Lohan. I wonder how much of it's bad press is really more anti-Lindsey.

[JasonEvans]

Add to this a movie already out "I know who killed me" [Trailer (http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/iknowwhokilledme/high.html)]with Lindsey Lohan. I wonder how much of it's bad press is really more anti-Lindsey.

I have not seen "I Know Who Killed Me" but the word of mouth is just terrible and the reviews are among the worst you will find. It was not screened for critics, which is almost always a sign that the studio knows the film is total dog-poop. I have read a spoiler of the entire plot of the film and found it strange and confusing. Not good!



I'm interested in a couple of movies that will be coming out soon, "Death at a Funeral," "Becoming Jane," and "Invasion. Have you heard anything or know anything about any of these movies? "Death at a Funeral" looks hilarious, but I wonder if the previews are the only thing funny.

I have not had a chance to see any of the above yet. I am probably going to a screening of Invasion next week though and will post some thoughts then. I agree that Death at a Funeral looks good based on the trailer. There are not a lot of reviews available yet, but the ones that are out there on Rotten Tomatoes look very good. The reviews for Becoming Jane are kinda lukewarm-- not great, bhut not awful either. I am not a fan of that genre of film though and I probably won't see it any time soon.

-Jason "sorry to not have more for ya'll" Evans

[TillyGalore]

The reviews for Becoming Jane are kinda lukewarm-- not great, bhut not awful either. I am not a fan of that genre of film though and I probably won't see it any time soon.

-Jason "sorry to not have more for ya'll" Evans

What! Not a fan of the romantic lives of British authors turned major motion pictures? I'm shocked. (I am of course kidding.)

Looking forward to your review of Invasion though. If you do see Death at a Funeral please post a review for that as well. I don't really like what the professional critics have to say (I hope you're not one of them). You do seem to hit the proverbial nail on the head, thus enjoy reading about your thoughts.

Tilly "so glad Jason "the moderator post-a-matic" Evans" is back to putting clever lines in his name" Galore

[cato]

I just happened to be browsing box office numbers and after last weekend (Aug. 4-5), I have to say I'm impressed with the DBR voters pre-summer poll. If you remember, those who voted (I didn't) predicted the top five summer blockbusters as (in order):

1. Spiderman 3
2. Harry Potter 5
3. Shrek 3
4. Pirates 3
5. The Simpsons
(6) Transformers

As it stands after last weekend (with last weekend's totals in parenthesis):

1. Spiderman 3 336 million (0.1 million)
2. Shrek 3 320 million (0.5 million)
3. Pirates 3 307 million (0.2 million)
4. Transformers 296 million (6.0 million)
5. Harry Potter 5 261 million (9.5 million)
6. Ratatouille 188 million (4 million)
7. Knocked Up 146 million (0.5 million)
8. Die Hard 130 million (1.5 million)
9. Fantastic Four 130 million (0.3 million)
10. The Simpsons 128 million (25.1 million)
11. Oceans 13 115 million (0.1 million)
12. Evan Almighty 97 million (0.4 million)

-- I'm just talking summer movies. For the yearly rank, you have to include 300 (210 million) and Wild Hogs (165 mllion).

-- Two recent releases have a chance to crack the top 10 -- The Bourne Ultimatum had a great opening weekend (69 million) and will almost certainly crack the 150 million mark, probably 200 million. Also Hairspray (79 million in three weeks, 9.2 million last week) will top 100 and could crack the top 10.

-- The obvious movie to watch from the current top 10 is the Simpsons Movie. It will clearly climb past Fantastic Four, Die Hard and Knocked Up. I think it will catch Ratatouille ...

-- Harry Potter also has legs -- the speculation that the release of the book would kill the box office for the movie turned out to be wrong. I think it passes Pirates ... can it catch Shrek (as our pollsters predicted?)

-- To me, the list shows that the summer's big flop was Evan Almighty (can a $100 million movie be a flop?) ... at least it most underperformed our predictions and the surprise hit was Knocked Up.

Just guessing now, it seems clear to me to exactly five summer films will finish at $300 million plus -- Spiderman, Shrek, Pirates, Potter and Transformers ...

Our pollsters got four of five and just missed the fifth. And who knows, it's not impossible that the Simpsons will catch and pass the Transformers (although I think that's unlikely).

Good job, people!

Bump, because 10 years ago, the franchises at the top of the list look awfully familiar.