stickdog
10-02-2009, 08:42 PM
Losses from last season:
Gerald Henderson (left early to become a first round NBA draft pick)
Elliot Williams (transferred to Memphis to be near his sick mother)
Greg Paulus (graduated and became Syracuse’s starting quarterback)
Davis McClure (exhausted his eligibility after 5 years at Duke)
Marty Pocius (signed a professional contract in his native Lithuania)
New freshman players:
Mason Plumlee: The younger brother of current Duke sophomore Miles Plumlee, Mason is a 6’10”, 230 lb athlete who can really run and jump. He also has very advanced perimeter game for a 6’10” player. He is very good passer, and he has a very nice handle. His Duke teammates project him as a starter this season. After playing pickup with him last weekend, Jason Williams said Mason would become Duke’s next star. Mason was the runner up in the dunking competition at the McDonald’s All American game. He is expected to become an NBA lottery pick by the end of his sophomore season. Duke’s staff would feel lucky to get two years out of him.
Andre Dawkins: Dawkins was supposed to be a senior in high school this season and to join Duke next season, but when the unforeseen departure of Elliot Williams (along with the anticipated departures of Gerald Henderson, Greg Paulus and Marty Pocius) left Duke with just two guards on its roster (Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith), Dawkins and his parents saw the opportunity for immediate playing time at Duke this season. Dawkins had only one class to go to gain eligibility to play a year early. He completed this class last month and almost immediately thereafter arrived on Duke’s campus ready to roll. Dawkins is a very young but highly talented 6’4” wing player. He is an athletic slasher in the Thomas Hill mold, but with a deadly three point shot. He will be counted on to play big minutes at both the 2 (shooting guard) and 3 (small forward) positions because he is Duke’s entire backcourt depth.
Ryan Kelly: The consensus 14th ranked incoming freshman, Ryan Kelly is a highly skilled and polished 6’10” 220 lb kid. He is an exceptional perimeter shooter who won the McDonald’s All American game’s three point shooting contest going away. Like Mason Plumlee, he is also very adept at handling and passing the ball for a big man. Unlike Mason Plumlee, he is not an athletic freak, but he is a superior offensive player who can put the ball in the basket in almost every way imaginable. He projects to get as much playing time as his defense will allow. At this point, he is neither strong enough to guard the biggest and strongest opponents in the paint nor quick enough to guard shorter players on the perimeter. Of course, he also presents his own matchup problems for the opposition. Kyle Singler says Kelly is more skilled than he was as a college freshman, but that Kelly needs to gain physical strength to round out his game.
Returning players:
Junior Kyle Singler: Singler is the odds on favorite to win ACC player of the year. Unlike in the past when he was used almost exclusively at the 4 and 5 positions, Kyle will play the vast majority of his time this season on the wing where he will often be a matchup nightmare for the opposition. Most Duke insiders expect Singler to leave Duke and become a high first round NBA draft pick at the end of this season.
Senior Jon Scheyer: Duke went 10-2 down the stretch after Scheyer moved to the point guard position last season (with both losses to Final Four teams and eight wins over NCAA Tournament teams). Over that 12 game stretch, Scheyer averaged 18.6 points and 2.4 assists and shot 43 percent from 3-point range. The current plan for this season is for Scheyer to remain Duke’s starting point guard and play as many minutes at point guard as his stamina and foul situation will allow.
Junior Nolan Smith: As one of only three guards on Duke, Nolan Smith will be counted on to provide big minutes and stellar play. He will be Duke’s starting shooting guard and will move over to the point guard position whenever Scheyer is out of the game. Although slightly undersized as a college shooting guard, Smith has all the talent in the world. He is looking forward to finally putting it all together and having a breakout season. Duke’s hopes this coming season are to a large degree resting on Smith’s shoulders.
Senior Lance Thomas: At 6’8” 225 lbs, Thomas has been forced to man Duke’s center position for most of his career at Duke. With Zoubek and both Plumlee brothers projected to play over 40 combined minutes this season, that will not be the case. Thomas’ versatility as a player who can defend guards, forwards and wings will be very important for Duke this season. Thomas will play inside on offense while guarding a smaller, quicker player on defense, allowing Duke to field a bigger team without getting burned on defense by the opposition.
Senior Brian Zoubek: Duke’s resident 7’1”, 260 lb man mountain has quietly improved every season. Last season his offensive rating of 119.4 was actually second on Duke to Scheyer’s 122.6. His per 40-minute numbers last season were 13.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. He is sporting a beard this season and according to his teammates, he and Lance Thomas are fighting it out for the last starting position.
Sophomore Miles Plumlee: Mason’s 6’10”, 240 lb older brother has put on an additional 15 lbs of muscle since last season and should see quite a few minutes in Duke’s massive frontcourt rotation. Miles is probably the best overall run/jump athlete on Duke’s team, but he made a number of freshman mistakes last season and he will have to limit those mistakes this season if he wants to play a much larger role on this team.
Sophomore forward Olek Czyz, Senior Jordan Davidson, Junior Casey Peters: These three players will round out Duke’s bench, but do not project to see much time in competitive games.
Duke projected nine man rotation:
6’2” Nolan Smith
6’4” Andre Dawkins
6’5” Jon Scheyer
6’8” Kyle Singler
6’8” Lance Thomas
6’10” Ryan Kelly
6’10” Mason Plumlee
6’10” Miles Plumlee
7’1” Brian Zoubek
Duke’s projected starting lineup:
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, Mason Plumlee or
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Brian Zoubek
The 2009-2010 outlook:
Duke’s team is massive. With 4 of 9 rotation players 6’10” or over and 6 of 9 rotation players 6’8” or over, Duke projects to be one of the tallest teams if not the tallest team in the NCAA. Led by senior Jon Scheyer and junior Kyle Singler, this Duke team has a lot of experience. Seniors Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek and junior Nolan Smith give Duke five solid upperclassmen in its nine-man rotation. Freshman phenom Mason Plumlee has already been penciled into the starting lineup by his Duke teammates, and his agility, mobility, athleticism, toughness and huge frame should give Duke a dimension that it has lacked since the days of Christian Laettner (or at worse, the days of Josh McRoberts).
Duke’s weakness will be keeping up with smaller, quicker teams. With just three guards on the roster – Scheyer, Smith and frosh Dawkins -- Duke has almost no margin for error on the perimeter. An injury to any of these three players would be devastating, and all three must avoid early foul trouble unless Kyle Singler can somehow develop himself into a shooting guard. Duke may be forced to play a lot of zone defense out of necessity, which goes against Coach K’s most fundamental coaching principles. If so, Duke could use its length to field some scary huge lineups. Consider a lineup of 6’5” Scheyer, 6’8” Singler, 6’10” Kelly, 6’10” Plumlee and 7’1” Zoubek, for example. This team would be able to score and rebound at will and could utterly punish the competition if all the players learned to play zone defense proficiently enough.
Both UNC and the rest of the ACC are slightly down this season, so if Duke stays healthy all season, another season long run in the top 10 is highly likely. However, if any one of Duke’s three perimeter players gets injured, Duke may be in for a long season.
Gerald Henderson (left early to become a first round NBA draft pick)
Elliot Williams (transferred to Memphis to be near his sick mother)
Greg Paulus (graduated and became Syracuse’s starting quarterback)
Davis McClure (exhausted his eligibility after 5 years at Duke)
Marty Pocius (signed a professional contract in his native Lithuania)
New freshman players:
Mason Plumlee: The younger brother of current Duke sophomore Miles Plumlee, Mason is a 6’10”, 230 lb athlete who can really run and jump. He also has very advanced perimeter game for a 6’10” player. He is very good passer, and he has a very nice handle. His Duke teammates project him as a starter this season. After playing pickup with him last weekend, Jason Williams said Mason would become Duke’s next star. Mason was the runner up in the dunking competition at the McDonald’s All American game. He is expected to become an NBA lottery pick by the end of his sophomore season. Duke’s staff would feel lucky to get two years out of him.
Andre Dawkins: Dawkins was supposed to be a senior in high school this season and to join Duke next season, but when the unforeseen departure of Elliot Williams (along with the anticipated departures of Gerald Henderson, Greg Paulus and Marty Pocius) left Duke with just two guards on its roster (Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith), Dawkins and his parents saw the opportunity for immediate playing time at Duke this season. Dawkins had only one class to go to gain eligibility to play a year early. He completed this class last month and almost immediately thereafter arrived on Duke’s campus ready to roll. Dawkins is a very young but highly talented 6’4” wing player. He is an athletic slasher in the Thomas Hill mold, but with a deadly three point shot. He will be counted on to play big minutes at both the 2 (shooting guard) and 3 (small forward) positions because he is Duke’s entire backcourt depth.
Ryan Kelly: The consensus 14th ranked incoming freshman, Ryan Kelly is a highly skilled and polished 6’10” 220 lb kid. He is an exceptional perimeter shooter who won the McDonald’s All American game’s three point shooting contest going away. Like Mason Plumlee, he is also very adept at handling and passing the ball for a big man. Unlike Mason Plumlee, he is not an athletic freak, but he is a superior offensive player who can put the ball in the basket in almost every way imaginable. He projects to get as much playing time as his defense will allow. At this point, he is neither strong enough to guard the biggest and strongest opponents in the paint nor quick enough to guard shorter players on the perimeter. Of course, he also presents his own matchup problems for the opposition. Kyle Singler says Kelly is more skilled than he was as a college freshman, but that Kelly needs to gain physical strength to round out his game.
Returning players:
Junior Kyle Singler: Singler is the odds on favorite to win ACC player of the year. Unlike in the past when he was used almost exclusively at the 4 and 5 positions, Kyle will play the vast majority of his time this season on the wing where he will often be a matchup nightmare for the opposition. Most Duke insiders expect Singler to leave Duke and become a high first round NBA draft pick at the end of this season.
Senior Jon Scheyer: Duke went 10-2 down the stretch after Scheyer moved to the point guard position last season (with both losses to Final Four teams and eight wins over NCAA Tournament teams). Over that 12 game stretch, Scheyer averaged 18.6 points and 2.4 assists and shot 43 percent from 3-point range. The current plan for this season is for Scheyer to remain Duke’s starting point guard and play as many minutes at point guard as his stamina and foul situation will allow.
Junior Nolan Smith: As one of only three guards on Duke, Nolan Smith will be counted on to provide big minutes and stellar play. He will be Duke’s starting shooting guard and will move over to the point guard position whenever Scheyer is out of the game. Although slightly undersized as a college shooting guard, Smith has all the talent in the world. He is looking forward to finally putting it all together and having a breakout season. Duke’s hopes this coming season are to a large degree resting on Smith’s shoulders.
Senior Lance Thomas: At 6’8” 225 lbs, Thomas has been forced to man Duke’s center position for most of his career at Duke. With Zoubek and both Plumlee brothers projected to play over 40 combined minutes this season, that will not be the case. Thomas’ versatility as a player who can defend guards, forwards and wings will be very important for Duke this season. Thomas will play inside on offense while guarding a smaller, quicker player on defense, allowing Duke to field a bigger team without getting burned on defense by the opposition.
Senior Brian Zoubek: Duke’s resident 7’1”, 260 lb man mountain has quietly improved every season. Last season his offensive rating of 119.4 was actually second on Duke to Scheyer’s 122.6. His per 40-minute numbers last season were 13.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks. He is sporting a beard this season and according to his teammates, he and Lance Thomas are fighting it out for the last starting position.
Sophomore Miles Plumlee: Mason’s 6’10”, 240 lb older brother has put on an additional 15 lbs of muscle since last season and should see quite a few minutes in Duke’s massive frontcourt rotation. Miles is probably the best overall run/jump athlete on Duke’s team, but he made a number of freshman mistakes last season and he will have to limit those mistakes this season if he wants to play a much larger role on this team.
Sophomore forward Olek Czyz, Senior Jordan Davidson, Junior Casey Peters: These three players will round out Duke’s bench, but do not project to see much time in competitive games.
Duke projected nine man rotation:
6’2” Nolan Smith
6’4” Andre Dawkins
6’5” Jon Scheyer
6’8” Kyle Singler
6’8” Lance Thomas
6’10” Ryan Kelly
6’10” Mason Plumlee
6’10” Miles Plumlee
7’1” Brian Zoubek
Duke’s projected starting lineup:
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, Mason Plumlee or
Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Brian Zoubek
The 2009-2010 outlook:
Duke’s team is massive. With 4 of 9 rotation players 6’10” or over and 6 of 9 rotation players 6’8” or over, Duke projects to be one of the tallest teams if not the tallest team in the NCAA. Led by senior Jon Scheyer and junior Kyle Singler, this Duke team has a lot of experience. Seniors Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek and junior Nolan Smith give Duke five solid upperclassmen in its nine-man rotation. Freshman phenom Mason Plumlee has already been penciled into the starting lineup by his Duke teammates, and his agility, mobility, athleticism, toughness and huge frame should give Duke a dimension that it has lacked since the days of Christian Laettner (or at worse, the days of Josh McRoberts).
Duke’s weakness will be keeping up with smaller, quicker teams. With just three guards on the roster – Scheyer, Smith and frosh Dawkins -- Duke has almost no margin for error on the perimeter. An injury to any of these three players would be devastating, and all three must avoid early foul trouble unless Kyle Singler can somehow develop himself into a shooting guard. Duke may be forced to play a lot of zone defense out of necessity, which goes against Coach K’s most fundamental coaching principles. If so, Duke could use its length to field some scary huge lineups. Consider a lineup of 6’5” Scheyer, 6’8” Singler, 6’10” Kelly, 6’10” Plumlee and 7’1” Zoubek, for example. This team would be able to score and rebound at will and could utterly punish the competition if all the players learned to play zone defense proficiently enough.
Both UNC and the rest of the ACC are slightly down this season, so if Duke stays healthy all season, another season long run in the top 10 is highly likely. However, if any one of Duke’s three perimeter players gets injured, Duke may be in for a long season.