Hoopdoctors Preseason Predictions

[BlueDster]

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2009/09/2010-ncaa-basketball-predictions/

I thought this was little harsh on Duke... Kyle Singler doesn't even make 3rd Team All-American? Only one Duke player on either All-ACC team? Ouch.

[Azdukefan]

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2009/09/2010-ncaa-basketball-predictions/

I thought this was little harsh on Duke... Kyle Singler doesn't even make 3rd Team All-American? Only one Duke player on either All-ACC team? Ouch.

I actually thought he did us more justice than most predictors. Very few have us in the top ten (outside of Dickie V who has at either four or five). I personally think Kyle will be NPOY but regardless of where we are seeded heading into March Madness, I believe we will win the whole thing except for last year when I won that blood money from the holes victory. Anyone else win a pool with the UNC victory?

[DukieInBrasil]

He´s pretty high on Ed Davis though. I realize that Ed had a real nice stretch of games in the tourney that really got people hyped up on him, and the kid no doubt has talent. But he´s picked as the POY of the ACC and 1st team AA as a So.? After playing alongside the monster defensive distraction and therefore enormous help to Davis´ offensive game as well as the all-time ACC scoring leader, aka, Tyler Hans. I think Davis will have quite a few amazing games this year, and he will also have games where he shows growing pains, b/c he no longer has Hanstravel to play alongside him. I don´t see him as an ACC POY or 1st-team AA, though he may make 1st or 2nd team all-ACC.
Put all of this in comparison to his take on Singler, not even 3rd team AA, though he did make all-ACC. Singler has proven quite a lot so far, and while playing in the shadow of or alongside other top-notch scoring threats he has proven to be an excellent scorer and rebounder.

[FireOgilvie]

I don't have that much of a problem with his overall team rankings, but his All-American and All-Conference teams are terrible. If this guy had done any research, he would know that Luke Harangody is a shoe-in for at least 2nd Team All-America, assuming he shows up and plays like he has the past few seasons (where he was named 2nd Team All-American). I believe that Harangody is the only returner from the AP 1st and 2nd teams last year. Sherron Collins is the only other returner from the 3rd team (and he's also missing on this guy's list). Where is Singler? He's ahead of Derrick Favors on the All-ACC list, but Favors is ahead of him for All-America. Not consistent at all. This guy also has 9 out of 15 players that are freshmen and sophomores. Only 3 sophomores and no freshmen made the top 3 teams last year.

Also, John Wall for NPOY? I highly doubt that Wall scores enough points to be NPOY. Historically, the award goes to a guy that averages at least in the mid-20s. Also, the only freshman to win was Durant. Wall isn't a great shooter. Basically, it's a really unlikely choice.

As far as the rankings, I don't see Connecticut losing their 3 leading scorers, which include their two best rebounders, and best defensive player (Thabeet) and finishing 9th. Last time they lost this much, the went to the NIT. I'm sure they'll finish in the top 25, but with so many unproven freshmen carrying the team, I don't see them that high (especially over teams like Duke and West Virginia).

[NSDukeFan]

I don't have that much of a problem with his overall team rankings, but his All-American and All-Conference teams are terrible. If this guy had done any research, he would know that Luke Harangody is a shoe-in for at least 2nd Team All-America, assuming he shows up and plays like he has the past few seasons (where he was named 2nd Team All-American). I believe that Harangody is the only returner from the AP 1st and 2nd teams last year. Sherron Collins is the only other returner from the 3rd team (and he's also missing on this guy's list). Where is Singler? He's ahead of Derrick Favors on the All-ACC list, but Favors is ahead of him for All-America. Not consistent at all. This guy also has 9 out of 15 players that are freshmen and sophomores. Only 3 sophomores and no freshmen made the top 3 teams last year.

Also, John Wall for NPOY? I highly doubt that Wall scores enough points to be NPOY. Historically, the award goes to a guy that averages at least in the mid-20s. Also, the only freshman to win was Durant. Wall isn't a great shooter. Basically, it's a really unlikely choice.

As far as the rankings, I don't see Connecticut losing their 3 leading scorers, which include their two best rebounders, and best defensive player (Thabeet) and finishing 9th. Last time they lost this much, the went to the NIT. I'm sure they'll finish in the top 25, but with so many unproven freshmen carrying the team, I don't see them that high (especially over teams like Duke and West Virginia).

I have to agree with you that I don't have much of a problem with his team rankings but the player awards seem a little out there. Sherron Collins doesn't make first team all big-12 in his rankings. I realize the ACC lost most of its best guards, but does the rest of the country not have any good junior or senior guards? There aren't any on his AA teams? He actually only has four guards on his 3 AA teams, 2 frosh and 2 soph. (I am not including Devin Ebanks and Evan Turner.) Seems odd for a guard dominated sport.

I am not as sold on Purdue this year as most others are. I guess it is because of our beatdown of them last year (true one result does not make a trend), but I don't expect them to be better than us. I certainly expect MSU and Villanova to be better than them.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

This guy is way off base. What are Matt Anaya's credentials? These picks are terrible. He has Georegtown at #11, Connecticut at #8, and Oklahoma at #13? No way! And love freshman much? He has Avery Bradley over Sherron Collins for AA and Big 12 honors? And John Wall as NPOY? That is the biggest joke I have ever heard. Not to mention Kenny Boynton on 1st team All SEC over Downey??? Luke Harangody left off the AA team for Stanley Robinson? Two Oregon players on First Team All Pac 10? Three Georgia Tech players on 2nd Team All ACC? What about Scheyer or Booker?...I could go on and on, but I made my point. I am going to go do some research (something this guy obviously has never heard of) on Matt Anaya because this is awful.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

The guy played JUCO baseball then graduated from Southern Illinois with a major in TV Production. Case closed!

[Heelo]

(1) I love John Wall as a NPOY pick. The best players in college basketball are increasingly underclassmen, and John Wall has me more excited than I've been in a long time about an incoming player. [SO glad he didn't pick you guys!]

(2) This guy knows nothing. His comparison of John Henson to Amare Stoudemire in his mock draft speaks volumes.

[sandinmyshoes]

UNC at number four in the nation?

I don't see that. I guess I can see the possibility of it at the end of the season if they can get the guard play they need. So maybe that's what how he is thinking. But as a preseason ranking, it's way too high in my opinion.

Until Drew can prove he can handle the point, and some viable back up is found, I'd think 11-15 was a more likely preseason ranking.

But, again, this guy is obviously picking the finishing position rather than the starting position. Still, that point guard problem makes his guess suspect, in my opinion.

[ACCBBallFan]

UNC at number four in the nation?

I don't see that. I guess I can see the possibility of it at the end of the season if they can get the guard play they need. So maybe that's what how he is thinking. But as a preseason ranking, it's way too high in my opinion.

Until Drew can prove he can handle the point, and some viable back up is found, I'd think 11-15 was a more likely preseason ranking.

But, again, this guy is obviously picking the finishing position rather than the starting position. Still, that point guard problem makes his guess suspect, in my opinion.You make a valid point until you try to answer the flip side. who besides UK, UNC etc? Other than KU, a weaker NCAA field and none without some questions.

I track as many pre-sseason polls as I can find and consensus is:

1 2,241 B12 Kansas -1

2 2,075 SEC Kentucky -1 (E-1)
3 2,059 B10 Michigan St -1 (1)
4 2,024 B12 Texas - 2

5 1,969 BE Villanova -1
6 1,968 ACC UNC -1 (2)
7 1,855 B10 Purdue -2 (3)
8 1,791 ACC Duke -2 (4)

09 1,742 BE West VA -2
10 1,586 SEC Tennessee -2 (E-2)
11 1,479 P10 Washington -1
12 1,429 HOR Butler -1

13 1,404 BE UCONN - 3
14 1,397 P10 California -2
15 1,289 B10 Michigan-3 (5)
16 1,241 B10 Ohio St. -4 (6)

17 1,180 B12 Oklahoma -3
18 1,162 BE Louisville -4
19 1,162 B10 Minnesota-5 (7)
20 1,139 SEC MS St -3 (W-1)

21 1,082 BE Georgetown -5
22 1,079 ACC Clemson -3 (8)

23 960 A10 Dayton -1
24 931 BE Syracuse -6
25 918 A10 Xavier -2

26 888 B10 Illinois -6 (9)
27 873 ACC GA Tech -4
28 862 P10 UCLA - 3
29 848 ACC Wake Forest -5 (10)

30 762 B12 TX A&M -4
31 753 B12 Okl St -5
32 751 WCC Gonzaga -1
33 750 MAAC Siena -1
34 712 SEC Florida -4 (E-3)

35 697 ACC FSU -6 (11)
36 697 BE Pittsburgh -7
37 687 ACC Maryland -7 (12)
38 670 BE Notre Dame -8
39 640 B12 Kansas St. -6

40 594 CUSA Memphis -1
41 506 MWC BYU -1
42 499 ACC B.C. -8 (13)

Lots of love for B10 near the top (6 in top 26).

8 ACC and 8 BE teams in top 42 but skewed toward major conferences where polls often cut off at top 25.

[Qwerty]

Is this finally the year where the Big TelEveN/ACC match up gets interesting?

[-jk]

You make a valid point until you try to answer the flip side. who besides UK, UNC etc? Other than KU, a weaker NCAA field and none without some questions.

I track as many pre-sseason polls as I can find and consensus is:

1 2,241 B12 Kansas -1

2 2,075 SEC Kentucky -1 (E-1)
3 2,059 B10 Michigan St -1 (1)
4 2,024 B12 Texas - 2

5 1,969 BE Villanova -1
6 1,968 ACC UNC -1 (2)
7 1,855 B10 Purdue -2 (3)
8 1,791 ACC Duke -2 (4)

09 1,742 BE West VA -2
10 1,586 SEC Tennessee -2 (E-2)
11 1,479 P10 Washington -1
12 1,429 HOR Butler -1

13 1,404 BE UCONN - 3
14 1,397 P10 California -2
15 1,289 B10 Michigan-3 (5)
16 1,241 B10 Ohio St. -4 (6)

17 1,180 B12 Oklahoma -3
18 1,162 BE Louisville -4
19 1,162 B10 Minnesota-5 (7)
20 1,139 SEC MS St -3 (W-1)

21 1,082 BE Georgetown -5
22 1,079 ACC Clemson -3 (8)

23 960 A10 Dayton -1
24 931 BE Syracuse -6
25 918 A10 Xavier -2

26 888 B10 Illinois -6 (9)
27 873 ACC GA Tech -4
28 862 P10 UCLA - 3
29 848 ACC Wake Forest -5 (10)

30 762 B12 TX A&M -4
31 753 B12 Okl St -5
32 751 WCC Gonzaga -1
33 750 MAAC Siena -1
34 712 SEC Florida -4 (E-3)

35 697 ACC FSU -6 (11)
36 697 BE Pittsburgh -7
37 687 ACC Maryland -7 (12)
38 670 BE Notre Dame -8
39 640 B12 Kansas St. -6

40 594 CUSA Memphis -1
41 506 MWC BYU -1
42 499 ACC B.C. -8 (13)

Lots of love for B10 near the top (6 in top 26).

8 ACC and 8 BE teams in top 42 but skewed toward major conferences where polls often cut off at top 25.

OK, paint me ignorant. I just don't get where your numbers are coming from...

-jk

[ACCBBallFan]

The numbers in and of themselves are not that important, just the relativity.

They are the summation of as many pre-season polls as I cold get my hands on, some obviously more credible than others. Kind of like a poor man;s RSCI index where the composite is theoretically better than any individual pre-season poll.

In a top 25 poll, #1 gets 25, #2 gets 24 etc. So it is skewed toward major conferences who tend to get those top 25 bids along with Butler and Gonzaga, for example.

In for example the Rivals ranking of all 347 teams since it is not complete I had to go the other way, # 347 gets -347, down to #39 FSU gets -39. Until more is known, all the remaining blanks get -38 and each day that gets updated. SO when #38 is known, that team remains at -38 and all the others change to -37. When they are all known I may renumber where #1 gets 347 instead of -1 and #347 gets 1 instead of -347, but delta between teams remains the same.

I have not been consistent on this. On everydayisMarch Top 65 (Georgetown @ #17 is most recent) and CollegeHoopsnet.com Top 144 (Purdue is currently highest ranked @ #17) on-going pools, I started with bottom team at 1, and have the tams not mentioned so far with a fairly high positive that changes daily, but they only have 65 teams not all 347.

There have not yet been any AP or ESPN/USA Today coaches pools nor any RPI, Sagarin etc. So this will change quite a bit over the course of the season.

The point was even given all this info, yes UK and UNC and Duke each have their share of questions this year. But not many other teams are surfacing who don't.

[airowe]

Fan, just to quell my curiosity, what are the numbers inside the parentheses?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

The point guard play will be fine at UNC. It won't be Ty Lawson fine, but it will be better than most teams with the Drew/Strickland combo, and they will defend.

This years UNC team will be a very good defensive team. Everyone will have trouble scoring on UNC, everyone.

My worry is will RW try to push the pace too much with this team? I'd like to see him allow more 1/2 court play, where I think UNC will have an advantage. But we know he wants to push it up the floor...all the time.

Lots of youth on the floor, (can you say poor decisions?) and overall ballhandling is a little suspect, which is why I'm concerned that if they push too hard, the TO's will add up.

Turnovers suck the air out of games and are the stat of losses.

[ACCBBallFan]

Fan, just to quell my curiosity, what are the numbers inside the parentheses?Oh, I forgot to edit those before I posted.

They are the composite rankings for ACC-B10 challenge which I think may be decided by one game one way or the other this year.

03 2,110 B10 Michigan St -1 (1) @ UNC -1 (2)
06 2,019 ACC UNC -1 (2) vs. Mich St -1 (1)
07 1,905 B10 Purdue -2 (3) vs. Wake -4 (10)
08 1,842 ACC Duke -2 (4) @ Wisc -7 (14)

15 1,322 B10 Michigan-3 (5) vs. BC -8 (13)
16 1,279 B10 Ohio St. -4 (6) vs. FSU -6 (11)
18 1,209 B10 Minnesota-5 (7) @ Miami-FL -9 (16)
21 1,130 ACC Clemson -3 (8) vs. Illini -6 (9)

26 927 B10 Illinois -6 (9) @ Clemson -3 (8)
27 924 ACC GA Tech -4 Bye
29 873 ACC Wake Forest -5 (10) @ Purdue -2 (3)
35 746 ACC FSU -6 (11) @ Ohio St -4 (6)
36 722 ACC Maryland -7 (12) @ Indiana -9 (19)

42 518 ACC B.C. -8 (13) @ Michigan -3 (5)
46 390 B10 Wisc -7 (14) vs. Duke -2 (4)
60 204 ACC Va Tech -9 (15) @ Iowa -11 (22)
71 138 ACC Miami-Fl -10 (16) vs. Minnesota -5 (7)

75 109 ACC UVA - 11 (17) vs. Penn St -8 (18)
76 108 B10 Penn St -8 (18) @ UVA -11 (17)
83 086 B10 Indiana -9 (19) vs. Maryland -7 (12)
85 077 B10 NW -10 (20) @ NC St -12 (21)

110 005 ACC NC St - 12 (21) vs. NW -10 (20)
132 001 B10 Iowa -11 (22) vs. VA Tech -9 (15)

[airowe]

Got it. Thanks.

Can you list the sites and mags that you get your preseason rankings? I'm interested to see where you surf the web...

[jv001]

I don't think much of this guy's preseason rankings and awards. Like many said; on the national scene..He leaves off Luke and Singler. Then on the ACC awards he leaves off Jon. If I were a betting man, I would bet he makes one of the ALL-ACC teams. He put too many Freshmen on his teams and ranked unc, UConn and Kentucky higher than I believe they will finish. When I first saw the list, I thought a unc journalism grad wrote the article for the magazine.

[speedevil2001]

I actually thought he did us more justice than most predictors. Very few have us in the top ten (outside of Dickie V who has at either four or five). I personally think Kyle will be NPOY but regardless of where we are seeded heading into March Madness, I believe we will win the whole thing except for last year when I won that blood money from the holes victory. Anyone else win a pool with the UNC victory?

nah, i was rooting hard against unc last year, like i always do.

duke all the way.
then, anyone but carolina.