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jesus_hurley
09-25-2009, 03:31 PM
Mason is #16 on the Fox Sports 'Top Impact Freshman' list:
http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/10068688/Top-impact-freshmen-for-2009-10


It's been some time since Coach K last had a legitimate big man to work with in Durham, but things may finally change with the arrival of Miles Plumlee's younger brother. Mason, at 6-foot-10, has the length, athleticism and skill to compete for significant minutes in the Blue Devils' frontcourt this season. Don't be surprised if he's in Duke's starting lineup sooner rather than later. Though the Indiana native still needs to get stronger, he could complement preseason All-American Kyle Singler nicely down low.

Ignore #17, nothing to see there....

JaMarcus Russell
09-25-2009, 04:06 PM
Thanks for the link. I think it's a pretty interesting list, and I definitely agree with the top two choices. However, Henson was a pretty big omission from the top 20 list, right?

jesus_hurley
09-25-2009, 04:18 PM
Thanks for the link. I think it's a pretty interesting list, and I definitely agree with the top two choices. However, Henson was a pretty big omission from the top 20 list, right?

I thought so as well - I could see him making a larger impact then Strickland, depending of course on LD2

airowe
09-25-2009, 04:38 PM
Henson's going to have a tough time finding a spot on the floor. He's talented and tall, but skinny as an Olsen twin. I could end up eating those words down the road though. Mason will have a much bigger impact this year.

Jay Williams latest tweet says it all:

"Mason Plumlee will be the next biggest star at Duke. Mark my words!"

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-25-2009, 04:40 PM
I guess he doesn't like our chances with HB KI or AR lol

airowe
09-25-2009, 04:53 PM
I guess he doesn't like our chances with HB KI or AR lol

He can't talk about recruits. MP2 will blow up this year. Those guys won't even be on a campus yet.

FireOgilvie
09-25-2009, 04:59 PM
Henson's going to have a tough time finding a spot on the floor. He's talented and tall, but skinny as an Olsen twin. I could end up eating those words down the road though. Mason will have a much bigger impact this year.

Jay Williams latest tweet says it all:

"Mason Plumlee will be the next biggest star at Duke. Mark my words!"

I don't know about that. I think Henson was a lot more versatile and polished on offense last year. Mason seemed a little bit one-dimensional sometimes in high school. Obviously, offseason work will play a huge role. Henson is definitely too skinny, though. I'm predicting Henson averages over 10 points a game, and I don't know if I can say that for Mason this year.

Edit: UNC doesn't have a lot of proven scorers. I think there will definitely be room/time for Henson.

airowe
09-25-2009, 05:12 PM
I don't know about that. I think Henson was a lot more versatile and polished on offense last year. Mason seemed a little bit one-dimensional sometimes in high school. Obviously, offseason work will play a huge role. Henson is definitely too skinny, though. I'm predicting Henson averages over 10 points a game, and I don't know if I can say that for Mason this year.

Edit: UNC doesn't have a lot of proven scorers. I think there will definitely be room/time for Henson.

I could be wrong about Henson, but I've made my feelings about Mason known around here. He will be a stud and will be starting this season. His game is complete. Of course, I am a little biased as my dog's name is Mason ;)

Wheat/"/"/"
09-25-2009, 11:32 PM
I don't know about that. I think Henson was a lot more versatile and polished on offense last year. Mason seemed a little bit one-dimensional sometimes in high school. Obviously, offseason work will play a huge role. Henson is definitely too skinny, though. I'm predicting Henson averages over 10 points a game, and I don't know if I can say that for Mason this year.

Edit: UNC doesn't have a lot of proven scorers. I think there will definitely be room/time for Henson.

It's hard to quess who will have what kind of impact pre- season without seeing them play,so take my comments with a grain of salt.

I'm expecting a solid impact from Mason P, I liked the very little I've seen of him, but mainly because Duke has such a great need down low and he will play,a lot.

The ACC has a pretty good bunch of big men, the UNC 3, Alawi at F$U, Favors looks to be a beast etc...they are bigger more physically mature guys than Mason, however.

Mason has good size, but is still a typical freshman and could stand to get stronger, from all reports I see.

We should remember that freshmen who make a big impact in the post are unusual, especially without another strong inside player to compliment them.I'm not sure Thomas, Zoubeck or Miles P will give him the support he will need to impact the big games in a major way.

But what do I know about him? Not much.Never seen him play a game.I won't pretend to have a strong opinion here.

Maybe he can meet all these very high expectations we see for him as a freshman, but it will be tough.

The Snaer kid at F$U could be a sleeper impact player in the ACC. He stood out to me in the MacD AA game, a scorer all the way, and he will get plenty of PT with strong inside help from Alawi.

And I'm going to throw Leslie Mcdonald's name out there as a surpise. I sense he's a smaller version of Danny Green. Solid all the way around, good shooter, handle, with nice intangibles if not super athletic.
Looks to be steady and game smart from the little I've seen.

This year, UNC needs a player like that and I think its possible he could get the chance to make a big impact.

dukelifer
09-26-2009, 09:24 AM
Henson's going to have a tough time finding a spot on the floor. He's talented and tall, but skinny as an Olsen twin. I could end up eating those words down the road though. Mason will have a much bigger impact this year.

Jay Williams latest tweet says it all:

"Mason Plumlee will be the next biggest star at Duke. Mark my words!"
If only this was true. Henson will be a star and probably this year. He may be skinny- but the kid is quick and has a very nice shot. He is a very unusual player ala Antawn Jamison and that what makes him a scary prospect.

CameronCrazy'11
09-26-2009, 09:29 AM
I guess he doesn't like our chances with HB KI or AR lol

Or maybe it's because Mason will be playing for Duke before those guys even sign an LOI.

roywhite
09-26-2009, 10:06 AM
If only this was true. Henson will be a star and probably this year. He may be skinny- but the kid is quick and has a very nice shot. He is a very unusual player ala Antawn Jamison and that what makes him a scary prospect.

Don't know about you, but I tend to give Jason's observations about Mason Plumlee some weight. Jason Williams has been a stand-out player and commentator, and I believe played some pick-up ball with Mason. Jason knows hoops.

I'd rather focus on our players than the Tar Heels.

miramar
09-26-2009, 10:57 AM
It's hard to quess who will have what kind of impact pre-without seeing them play,so take my comments with a grain of salt. [. . .]

We should remember that freshmen who make a big impact in the post are unusual, especially without another strong inside player to complement them.I'm not sure Thomas, Zoubeck or Miles P will give him the support he will need to impact the big games in a major way.



Good point. This is going back a bit, but remember J. R. Reid's freshman year at Carolina? He was not only the top freshman in the country, but according to Dicky V and company, he was a shorter and more mobile version of Lew Alcindor. Then Wolf and Popson graduated that year, and it turned out that he was talented but certainly not the dominant player everyone expected. In fact, he was not even the best player in the ACC as he never had the same impact as Danny Ferry.

chrisheery
09-26-2009, 11:08 AM
I think Jason saying that Mason is good is a huge endorsement. Jason was very close friends with Casey Saunders while they were at Duke. However, I played in a pickup game with both of them before their Junior year, and Jason was relentless in his criticism of Casey Saunders. He just wouldn't leave him alone because he saw potential, I guess. Anyway, if he thinks a big man is talented, I'd believe him because he can spot a sucker a mile away.

sivartrenrag
09-26-2009, 11:26 AM
I think Jason saying that Mason is good is a huge endorsement. Jason was very close friends with Casey Saunders while they were at Duke. However, I played in a pickup game with both of them before their Junior year, and Jason was relentless in his criticism of Casey Saunders. He just wouldn't leave him alone because he saw potential, I guess. Anyway, if he thinks a big man is talented, I'd believe him because he can spot a sucker a mile away.

Casey Sanders, you mean?

And I agree. I trust Jay. MP2 will be a starter, probably sooner rather than later. But I also think Henson will be a stud and should have been included in the top 20.

dukelifer
09-26-2009, 12:02 PM
Don't know about you, but I tend to give Jason's observations about Mason Plumlee some weight. Jason Williams has been a stand-out player and commentator, and I believe played some pick-up ball with Mason. Jason knows hoops.

I'd rather focus on our players than the Tar Heels.

Plumlee will be good-perhaps very good. It all depends on how he manages the big stage. If he can do this and keep out of foul trouble- he has a lot to offer. He will have to learn to hold his ground and not foul- that will be the hardest part of the game for him.

Freshman are always a work in progress. Everything is new- but Mason is a talent. We may be more surprised by Miles though. He may be much more poised this year and make fewer mistakes.

DevilDan
09-26-2009, 07:01 PM
I am behind MASON all the way. He has a decent array of shots, likes to run the floor, sports a "showtime" attitude, and may VERY WELL be a star in the making. He is going to give the other 4-5 guys (now ahead of him) in the frontcourt a RUN for their MINUTES.

I said it over a month ago ... this DUKE team has the best combination of stars, role players, and rookies that I have seen for years. DUKE has the best coach, they always play hard (or face the wrath of K, as they did after Clemson on the road last year), and they get Chemistry before other teams do. Combine MASON's early development (crossing my fingers/eyes/legs) with a breakout year by NOLAN, throw in two of the best in the nation ( KYLE & JON ), and WE ARE GOING to HAVE SOMETHING COOKING in JANUARY-MARCH ... book it !

GO DUKE !

Tucknut
09-26-2009, 07:39 PM
II said it over a month ago ... this DUKE team has the best combination of stars, role players, and rookies that I have seen for years. DUKE has the best coach, they always play hard (or face the wrath of K, as they did after Clemson on the road last year), and they get Chemistry before other teams do. Combine MASON's early development (crossing my fingers/eyes/legs) with a breakout year by NOLAN, throw in two of the best in the nation ( KYLE & JON ), and WE ARE GOING to HAVE SOMETHING COOKING in JANUARY-MARCH ... book it !

GO DUKE !

Funny how only a few months ago (after losing G, EWill and Wall), some were saying we'd be lucky to make the NIT.

If we can avoid the dreaded last season burnout, I think we'll be just fine this year.

DevilDan
09-26-2009, 11:58 PM
Hey Tuck, from a long-time Greensboro boy to a Martinsville boy, thanks for the followup. It's going to take awhile, but I think "we" are going to be just fine without those three.

Of course it's easy to say this now, but as exciting as Gerald was, he had a tendency to want to still "be the man" on his off nights (some, "way off"); further, I think in this roster, EWill's measured skills would have been a tough fit. Wall is looking great, but could turn out to be another one 'n' done. I think we'll do just fine with Andre supporting the play of Jon and Nolan on the perimeter.

Are you like me? I can't wait !

meloveduke
09-27-2009, 01:28 AM
Hey Tuck, from a long-time Greensboro boy to a Martinsville boy, thanks for the followup. It's going to take awhile, but I think "we" are going to be just fine without those three.

Of course it's easy to say this now, but as exciting as Gerald was, he had a tendency to want to still "be the man" on his off nights (some, "way off"); further, I think in this roster, EWill's measured skills would have been a tough fit. Wall is looking great, but could turn out to be another one 'n' done. I think we'll do just fine with Andre supporting the play of Jon and Nolan on the perimeter.

Are you like me? I can't wait !

I was thinking the same thing. I like the team we have a little better then last years team(bigger better all around). I like mason, the videos from the NC pro am showed me he is good. I liked what I show miles and kellt do too. It feels good to be a duke fan, go Duke. Can't wait to hear people say "man this team is good, with no PG."

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-27-2009, 11:03 AM
No I still like EWill being on our team...

meloveduke
09-27-2009, 01:24 PM
No I still like EWill being on our team...

I think he is going to be good this year, we could use him. I hope evetthing is ok with his family.

ACCBBallFan
09-27-2009, 02:26 PM
I am behind MASON all the way. He has a decent array of shots, likes to run the floor, sports a "showtime" attitude, and may VERY WELL be a star in the making. He is going to give the other 4-5 guys (now ahead of him) in the frontcourt a RUN for their MINUTES.

I said it over a month ago ... this DUKE team has the best combination of stars, role players, and rookies that I have seen for years. DUKE has the best coach, they always play hard (or face the wrath of K, as they did after Clemson on the road last year), and they get Chemistry before other teams do. Combine MASON's early development (crossing my fingers/eyes/legs) with a breakout year by NOLAN, throw in two of the best in the nation ( KYLE & JON ), and WE ARE GOING to HAVE SOMETHING COOKING in JANUARY-MARCH ... book it !

GO DUKE !Speaking of bookies, Duke is now picked in top 4 as this betting site:

http://basketball.about.com/od/ncaatournament/a/ncaaodds2010.htm

"The oddsmakers at BetOnline.com have named Kentucky the early favorite to win the 2010 National Championship, giving John Calipari's Wildcats 5-2 odds to win it all.

Kansas is BetOnline's second choice, at 3-1. (edit-author may have KU and UK reversed - see below, but either way 1-2)

Louisville and Duke complete the oddsmakers' Final Four; the Cardinals and Blue Devils are listed at 8-1.

Suddenly, I'm a lot less worried about Kentucky's youth, Duke's thin backcourt and the Rick Pitino scandal... the oddsmakers, they know what they're doing. Last year their favorite was North Carolina -- and as you may remember, the 2009 season worked out pretty well for the Tar Heels. Connecticut was their second choice and Michigan State sixth. (Villanova was 23rd.)"

BetOnline.com 2009-2010 Basketball National Championship Odds

01. KENTUCKY (5-2)
02. KANSAS (3-1)
03. DUKE (8-1)
04. LOUISVILLE (8-1)

05. ALABAMA (10-1)
06. UCLA (10-1)
07. GEORGETOWN (12-1)
08. MICHIGAN STATE (12-1)

09. NORTH CAROLINA (12-1)
10. SYRACUSE (12-1)
11. VILLANOVA (13-1)
12. CONNECTICUT (15-1)

13. FLORIDA (15-1)
14. TEXAS (15-1)
15. WEST VIRGINIA (15-1)
16. ARIZONA (20-1)

17. PURDUE (20-1)
18. TENNESSEE (20-1)
19. NOTRE DAME (25-1)
20. LSU (30-1)

21. MISSOURI (30-1)
22. PITTSBURGH (30-1)
23. OHIO STATE (40-1)
24. WAKE FOREST (40-1)

25. BOSTON COLLEGE (50-1)
26. CLEMSON (50-1)
27. GEORGIA TECH (50-1)
28. ILLINOIS (50-1)

29. MEMPHIS (50-1)
30. MICHIGAN (50-1)
31. OKLAHOMA (50-1)
32. OKLAHOMA STATE (50-1)

33. WASHINGTON (50-1)
34. XAVIER (50-1)
35. TEXAS A&M (50-1)"
36 MISSISSIPPI STATE (55-1)

37 GONZAGA (60-1)
38 ARIZONA STATE (75-1)
39 MARYLAND (75-1)
40 WISCONSIN (75-1)

41 BAYLOR (80-1)
42 CALIFORNIA (80-1)
43 FLORIDA STATE (100-1)
44 IOWA (100-1)

45 KANSAS STATE (100-1)
46 NORTH CAROLINA STATE (100-1)
47 SETON HALL (100-1)
48 STANFORD (100-1)

49 TEXAS TECH (100-1)
50 VIRGINIA TECH (100-1)
51 WASHINGTON STATE (100-1)
52 BYU (125-1)

53 MIAMI FLORIDA (125-1)
54 MISSISSIPPI (125-1)
55 OREGON (125-1)
56 GEORGIA (150-1)

57 MARQUETTE (150-1)
58 INDIANA (175-1)
59 SOUTHERN CAL (250-1)

# FIELD (25-1)


or

http://www.betonline.com/SportsBook/#s=&t=&sp=False&p=

which has same odds for Duke 8-1 except KU and UK reversed (I think the author in the first article may have made a mistake with Kansas 250 (5-2) an Kentucky 300 (3-1).

Besides Duke and Louisville, the big surprises to me are Alabama @ 10-1, Florida @ 15-1, and NC State @ 100-1, with UVA the only ACC team not to make the list at all.

This was back on July 23rd I believe and probably has not have much movement since then, until the season gets underway. Article alludes to the Pitino scandal so it was after that.

airowe
09-27-2009, 03:17 PM
Wish the odds were lower. I always put a small bet on Duke to take it all. Can't win much money with that kind of line...

JDev
09-27-2009, 03:34 PM
Oddsmakers are typically very good (though it did not take a genius to pick UNC last year). I am surprised to see them select Duke in their top four. It is a pleasant surprise, and I hope they are accurate. Looking at the list, after Kansas and UK, there aren't any teams that are clearly superior to Duke, so we will see.

BlueintheFace
09-27-2009, 07:34 PM
Where is Jumbo at? I seem to remember him telling the board that Miles Plumlee would get the start down low in the beginning of the season (which he did... for a game or two). I'm ready to hear about Plumlee The Second's position on the depth chart.... or maybe that assertion was made a week or two in to practice... can't quite remember

Newton_14
09-27-2009, 08:20 PM
Where is Jumbo at? I seem to remember him telling the board that Miles Plumlee would get the start down low in the beginning of the season (which he did... for a game or two). I'm ready to hear about Plumlee The Second's position on the depth chart.... or maybe that assertion was made a week or two in to practice... can't quite remember

You are correct. Jumbo did call that one last year but if I remember correctly he made that call sometime between the Blue-White game and the 1st exhibition. Miles started the first 2 or 3 games last year and then Zoubs took the spot...

jws
09-28-2009, 01:29 AM
I think how fast and how well Plumlee picks up and executes on defense will be the main factor in how much quality game time he gets as a frosh.

Like most of the best coaches, K will accept, even expect, some inconsistent offensive performance from a freshman, especially early in the season, but those coaches also know that great defense is not optional if you're going to vie for national honors in college basketball, and that their team's defense is only as good as it's weakest link, so the hook will likely come out very quickly if/when his play is a defensive liability to the team.

speedevil2001
09-28-2009, 06:31 AM
Casey Sanders, you mean?

And I agree. I trust Jay. MP2 will be a starter, probably sooner rather than later. But I also think Henson will be a stud and should have been included in the top 20.

what about ryan kelly?

he was ranked higher than mason plumlee in high school, but now not in college. what happened to him over the summer?

dukelifer
09-28-2009, 07:14 AM
what about ryan kelly?

he was ranked higher than mason plumlee in high school, but now not in college. what happened to him over the summer?

It is hard to tell how well Kelly will do because he is still a bit thin- but he is very skilled and skilled players tend to do well in college ball. A few threes on kickouts and some throws and next thing you know you have 12 pts. He is a possible X factor.

JDev
09-28-2009, 09:26 AM
what about ryan kelly?

he was ranked higher than mason plumlee in high school, but now not in college. what happened to him over the summer?

I think Kelly's issue is not with skills, but with physical maturity. His skill-set and basketball IQ are already very high, and will only get better. When he physically matures and is ready for the rigors of an ACC season, he will be a great asset for Duke.

flyingdutchdevil
09-28-2009, 10:09 AM
I think Kelly's issue is not with skills, but with physical maturity. His skill-set and basketball IQ are already very high, and will only get better. When he physically matures and is ready for the rigors of an ACC season, he will be a great asset for Duke.

I'm not sure if it's all about physical maturity. Kevin Durant was NOT physically mature, but he had a ridiculous IQ and once-in-a-decade skill for college ball. I think the real issue is need. Kelly's role is already abundant and skilled at Duke this year (3-4 position) whereas Mason's position (5) has been criticised at Duke for a while and is in much more dire need.

roywhite
09-28-2009, 10:15 AM
It is hard to tell how well Kelly will do because he is still a bit thin- but he is very skilled and skilled players tend to do well in college ball. A few threes on kickouts and some throws and next thing you know you have 12 pts. He is a possible X factor.

I see Mason as a likely starter and Ryan as an early frontcourt sub.

One thing Ryan can deliver is some scoring punch off the bench; last year's team lacked that. (Lance 5.3 ppg, Greg 4.9 ppg, McClure 1.9 ppg, etc.)

sagegrouse
09-28-2009, 10:31 AM
I see Mason as a likely starter and Ryan as an early frontcourt sub.

One thing Ryan can deliver is some scoring punch off the bench; last year's team lacked that. (Lance 5.3 ppg, Greg 4.9 ppg, McClure 1.9 ppg, etc.)

I am happy for the optimism re Mason and Ryan. I have adopted a wait-and see attitude about Duke freshman big men. Even Ferry and Laettner were not stars in their first year.

And, of course, we have the recent hype over Miles -- named a starter and then disappearing -- and Olek as the second coming ("Czyz is Polish for Jesus").

I am perfectly ok with having my skepticism proved wrong.

sagegrouse

Kedsy
09-28-2009, 10:37 AM
I am happy for the optimism re Mason and Ryan. I have adopted a wait-and see attitude about Duke freshman big men. Even Ferry and Laettner were not stars in their first year.

And, of course, we have the recent hype over Miles -- named a starter and then disappearing -- and Olek as the second coming ("Czyz is Polish for Jesus").

I am perfectly ok with having my skepticism proved wrong.

sagegrouse

On the other hand, Kyle Singler was a revelation as a freshman.

BlueintheFace
09-28-2009, 10:41 AM
I am happy for the optimism re Mason and Ryan. I have adopted a wait-and see attitude about Duke freshman big men. Even Ferry and Laettner were not stars in their first year.

And, of course, we have the recent hype over Miles -- named a starter and then disappearing -- and Olek as the second coming ("Czyz is Polish for Jesus").

I am perfectly ok with having my skepticism proved wrong.

sagegrouse

This is how I feel too. History is just not on their side, though I hope I am wrong.

MChambers
09-28-2009, 10:41 AM
On the other hand, Kyle Singler was a revelation as a freshman.

Elton Brand was pretty good as a freshman, despite a broken foot.

sagegrouse
09-28-2009, 11:49 AM
Elton Brand was pretty good as a freshman, despite a broken foot.

Brand was Duke's best freshman "big man" IMHO (with Sage Grouse the 'H' is usually silent). But, in addition to his skills, as an 18YO he had the body of a 30YO, which seems to be the point at question WRT to freshmen.

sagegrouse

MChambers
09-28-2009, 12:27 PM
Brand was Duke's best freshman "big man" IMHO (with Sage Grouse the 'H' is usually silent). But, in addition to his skills, as an 18YO he had the body of a 30YO, which seems to be the point at question WRT to freshmen.

sagegrouse

But Brand also was mentally mature, and picked up the defense side of things quite quickly.

jimsumner
09-28-2009, 12:41 PM
Freshman production depends on the talent of the freshman and the need of the team.

Such notables as Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, Cherokee Parks, Shane Battier, Corey Maggette, Shelden Williams, and Gerald Henderson were role players as freshmen.

On the other hand, Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, Tommy Amaker, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Jeff Capel, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Jason Williams, J.J. Redick, Luol Deng, Greg Paulus, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler were most emphatically not role players.

So, Kelly and Plumlee. Kelly may well have been ranked marginally higher than Plumlee and he might turn out to be a better player in the long run. But the things he does well, Singler does better. None of Zoubek, Thomas, or Miles Plumlee can duplicate Mason's offensive skill set. So, that gets us back to need. This year's Duke team needs what Plumlee brings to the table more than it needs what Kelly brings to the table. Hence, I expect Mason to be a more productive freshman than Kelly.

airowe
09-28-2009, 12:54 PM
Well said Jim. If Duke lands Harrison Barnes for next year and Singler stays (wow), I don't see Ryan getting much PT in '10-'11 either. If Kyle leaves (likely) there should absolutely be time for Ryan and he will have developed physically and hopefully defensively to deserve it. In the unfortunate situation Duke misses on Barnes and Kyle leaves, Ryan Kelly will be a valuable contributor logging significant minutes at the 3 spot.

sagegrouse
09-28-2009, 01:15 PM
... and Singler stays (wow), ...

Uhhh..... If Kyle Singler has the year that he and the rest of us expect, then we should be ready to offer congratulations and thanks for a great three years at Duke.

sagegrouse

airowe
09-28-2009, 01:28 PM
Uhhh..... If Kyle Singler has the year that he and the rest of us expect, then we should be ready to offer congratulations and thanks for a great three years at Duke.

sagegrouse

Completely agree. This why I put likely next to Singler leaving. There should be no hard feelings for Kyle if he leaves after this year.

NSDukeFan
09-28-2009, 02:29 PM
Well said Jim. If Duke lands Harrison Barnes for next year and Singler stays (wow), I don't see Ryan getting much PT in '10-'11 either. If Kyle leaves (likely) there should absolutely be time for Ryan and he will have developed physically and hopefully defensively to deserve it. In the unfortunate situation Duke misses on Barnes and Kyle leaves, Ryan Kelly will be a valuable contributor logging significant minutes at the 3 spot.

I agree with everything you said until you said that Ryan will be playing the 3 spot. He seems like a perfect 4 for a college team. I agree that would be his likely position in the NBA, but not at Duke. I could be wrong if we continue to be very big in the future, but that doesn't look likely based on the recruits we seem to be pursuing most. With Lance and Z gone next year, there would seem to be plenty of opportunity for Ryan next year at the 4 (not that we have positions ;).

airowe
09-28-2009, 02:55 PM
I agree with everything you said until you said that Ryan will be playing the 3 spot. He seems like a perfect 4 for a college team. I agree that would be his likely position in the NBA, but not at Duke. I could be wrong if we continue to be very big in the future, but that doesn't look likely based on the recruits we seem to be pursuing most. With Lance and Z gone next year, there would seem to be plenty of opportunity for Ryan next year at the 4 (not that we have positions ;).

From what I've seen (not much) and read (a lot) Ryan's strengths are away form the basket, not down low. I think he will play the 4 on Defense simply because he doesn't seem to have a lot of foot speed or lateral quickness, but he was the McDonald's All-American Game 3 Point Shooting Contest Champion. He's deadly from outside despite his size and seems to like to play out there. I'd expect Ryan be the second tallest guy on the floor at times next year, giving either Mason or Miles a rest, but just because he's tall doesn't mean he'll be playing down low. Duke's 4 is different than a lot of other teams though, so our argument may be nothing more than semantics...

chrisheery
09-28-2009, 03:21 PM
How different Ryan is from what Mike Dunleavy was as a freshman. The difference is that Dunleavy was forced into playing time and got better (except for mono, I think). I hope Ryan gets plenty of PT this year, because when he figures out how to use his skills at this level, he could be a big part of Duke's success.

meloveduke
09-28-2009, 03:39 PM
Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. The only thing is if that is true at the end of the season or not. if it was me, I would have to look at who was coming and going. We could have, dawkins-smith-cury-carie-barns-singler-MP1+2-Kelly, he may look at all these guys and think NCAA championship and stay(I hope he does).


I have to say that for duke to be better then last year we need MP2 to be good. I think he is going to be in of the better freshmen in the country, can't say the best but in of the best. I can't wait to see.

NSDukeFan
09-28-2009, 03:44 PM
From what I've seen (not much) and read (a lot) Ryan's strengths are away form the basket, not down low. I think he will play the 4 on Defense simply because he doesn't seem to have a lot of foot speed or lateral quickness, but he was the McDonald's All-American Game 3 Point Shooting Contest Champion. He's deadly from outside despite his size and seems to like to play out there. I'd expect Ryan be the second tallest guy on the floor at times next year, giving either Mason or Miles a rest, but just because he's tall doesn't mean he'll be playing down low. Duke's 4 is different than a lot of other teams though, so our argument may be nothing more than semantics...

You're right. I don't expect Ryan to be a big post scorer anytime in the near future, but still expect him to be the second biggest player on the floor much of the time and often guarding the opposition's second biggest player. I'm happy for him to be scoring from wherever he wants and wherever his skills best allow.

BlueintheFace
09-28-2009, 03:54 PM
Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. The only thing is if that is true at the end of the season or not. if it was me, I would have to look at who was coming and going. We could have, dawkins-smith-cury-carie-barns-singler-MP1+2-Kelly, he may look at all these guys and think NCAA championship and stay(I hope he does).


I have to say that for duke to be better then last year we need MP2 to be good. I think he is going to be in of the better freshmen in the country, can't say the best but in of the best. I can't wait to see.

If Singler stays, that 1-3 position is going to be crooooooooooowded if Barnes comes.

Irving, Thornton
Smith, Dawkins, Curry
Singler, Barnes, Kelly (depending on what you believe about his position)

chrisheery
09-28-2009, 04:03 PM
If Singler stays, that 1-3 position is going to be crooooooooooowded if Barnes comes.

Irving, Thornton
Smith, Dawkins, Curry
Singler, Barnes, Kelly (depending on what you believe about his position)

If Singler stays and Barnes comes, it won't really matter what "position" any of those guys play.

A lineup could consist of any of the following:

KI, Curry, Thornton, Dawkins, Nolan, Barnes, Singler all can play like 1-3
RK, Barnes, Singler, MP1, MP2, Hairston can play the rest

So, 200 minutes, essentially that is 100 minutes for each group. Put Singler in the second group because Barnes is in the first group. It seems unlikely Thornton will play much in year 1. That makes 20 minutes for each guy in group 1. 20 minutes for each guy in group 2. Assume someone in each group will get a little less and Singler will pick up some extra, likely playing about 30-34 mins a game. I would hope Nolan gets extra minutes as well. He's shown a lot of heart and seems to have been held back by injuries. I hope KI comes and makes Nolan look as good as we all know he is.

meloveduke
09-28-2009, 04:20 PM
I don't think if singler stays it will be a problem, remember he is not playing the 4-5 this year. I think he will stay one more for the simple fact that he is Likely not going to play the 4-5 in the nba. The only guys that would see much time in the 4-5 next year would be barns MP1 and MP2. I think that is a good if not great line up down low(depending how they play and develop). think about it this way we would not lose anything but Jon every thing else gets better.
Just my .02.

InSpades
09-28-2009, 04:27 PM
If Singler stays, that 1-3 position is going to be crooooooooooowded if Barnes comes.

Irving, Thornton
Smith, Dawkins, Curry
Singler, Barnes, Kelly (depending on what you believe about his position)

I definitely think Singler is more of a "Duke 4" who next year will be playing the "Duke 3". If we get the influx of 1-3 spot guys next year that we all hope (and we already have 2 in Thornton+Curry) then I think Kyle just goes back to his natural spot at 4. Assuming Barnes is as good as everyone says, there's no way Singler + Barnes don't start together and they would naturally be the 3 and 4 spots.

We are getting *way* ahead of ourselves here though :). Kyle coming back this year is icing on the cake for me, if he left I would have totally understood his decision. Coming back for his senior year would be Tebow-esque (maybe even moreso) and sort of the icing on the icing.

jimsumner
09-28-2009, 04:56 PM
"Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. "

Don't want to rain on anybody's parade but two points.

It is not necessary to play four years to leave a legacy.

Lots of guys have made similar comments and found that a legacy didn't always measure up to a lucrative NBA contract.

Sure, Duke has had more than its share of recent four-year greats. But I suspect Singler has a good chance to be ACC POY and consensus first or second-team All-American. Most likely that would mean he's getting paid next season.

Just a guess.

meloveduke
09-28-2009, 04:58 PM
Isn't curry a 1, and barns a 4? I sooooo mis read what you wrote lol. To what you say about the 1-3 being full. barns takes lances spot, lose Jon so really we only gain one more guy for the 1-3 then we have this year. This what I see, 1)Irving and curry(Thornton not likely to play much) 2)smith, dawkins, sometimes curry. 3) singler(if he stays), Kelly. 4) barns, miles. 5) mason. The only thing that I don't know is who is hariston? I an guessing a typeo. Think about it if your bench is as good as others starters what happens? I mean if you can play the whole game and have to worry about you guys legs, when someone needs a rest put in someone and not have to worry. I wouldn't worry about the 1-3 being crowded I would worry about the 5 needing a rest. But then again two good 4s at the same time would do the job.

Azdukefan
09-28-2009, 04:59 PM
"Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. "

Don't want to rain on anybody's parade but two points.

It is not necessary to play four years to leave a legacy.

Lots of guys have made similar comments and found that a legacy didn't always measure up to a lucrative NBA contract.

Sure, Duke has had more than its share of recent four-year greats. But I suspect Singler has a good chance to be ACC POY and consensus first or second-team All-American. Most likely that would mean he's getting paid next season.

Just a guess.

I agree but I think anything less than at least NPOY, Final Four, or NC may not allow for a legacy. Our standards are very high. So since he should be getting all three next year :cool:, he probably will leave! Let;s just hope he has the type of year that has NBA scouts drooling. Yet, what could be better than one National Championship? How about two???

jesus_hurley
09-28-2009, 05:02 PM
Isn't curry a 1, and barns a 4? I sooooo mis read what you wrote lol. To what you say about the 1-3 being full. barns takes lances spot, lose Jon so really we only gain one more guy for the 1-3 then we have this year. This what I see, 1)Irving and curry(Thornton not likely to play much) 2)smith, dawkins, sometimes curry. 3) singler(if he stays), Kelly. 4) barns, miles. 5) mason. The only thing that I don't know is who is hariston? I an guessing a typeo. Think about it if your bench is as good as others starters what happens? I mean if you can play the whole game and have to worry about you guys legs, when someone needs a rest put in someone and not have to worry. I wouldn't worry about the 1-3 being crowded I would worry about the 5 needing a rest. But then again two good 4s at the same time would do the job.

Curry is a combo guard and BARNES is a 3. Hairston is a 4 and will be a freshman next year:
ESPN Link (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/player?recruitId=44517&season=2010&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb %2frecruiting%2ftracker%2fplayer%3frecruitId%3d445 17%26season%3d2010)

Wheat/"/"/"
09-28-2009, 05:04 PM
I know how fond everyone is about discussing the SN Athlete of the Decade (http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2009-09-24/sporting-news-college-basketball-athlete-decade-tyler-hansbrou), ;) but the expectations around here seem to favor Mason having a similar impact as a freshman.

That's a tough act to follow.

Hansbrough came into the ACC with a crazy rep for eating right and working out with the weights....and it paid off. He was much stronger than the average freshman big man when he arrived, and it showed.

They usually come in big but heavy, like Deon Thompson and Haywood did, or needing to add strength like any number of others. They rarely come in like Elton Brand did.

Mason by all accounts has some real toughness like TH, but needs the weight and strength (from what I read). Toughness is not enough at the ACC level on the blocks. He will be in the post with some really big, strong dudes.

The good news is one year can make a big difference. The bad news is Duke really needs him to be a force this year to make a final 4.

7' 0" Tyler Zeller's UNC profile has him listed at 240lbs coming into his Soph season, after coming in at 210-215lbs as a freshman.

Similar to Zeller's arrival, I've seen Mason listed at 6' 11" and anywhere from 210-220 lbs. That's certainly not anorexic, like Henson, but he likely needs more strength and weight to be a real force in the post. Remember how Zeller was muscled around last year?
(BTW, Hensen will not smell the post this year for UNC, IMO).

I expect Zoubek to provide Duke with at least as much quality time in the post as Mason. While he is not the quickest guy around, he is not a bad player, and he's relatively strong. His biggest problem has been between his ears and making dumb fouls which take him out of games. He's a senior now, so you have to expect improvement there.

Mason could certainly surprise, but it's probably best to temper expectations and lets take a good look at him before putting so much on his shoulders.

airowe
09-28-2009, 05:04 PM
Isn't curry a 1, and barns a 4? I sooooo mis read what you wrote lol. To what you say about the 1-3 being full. barns takes lances spot, lose Jon so really we only gain one more guy for the 1-3 then we have this year. This what I see, 1)Irving and curry(Thornton not likely to play much) 2)smith, dawkins, sometimes curry. 3) singler(if he stays), Kelly. 4) barns, miles. 5) mason. The only thing that I don't know is who is hariston? I an guessing a typeo. Think about it if your bench is as good as others starters what happens? I mean if you can play the whole game and have to worry about you guys legs, when someone needs a rest put in someone and not have to worry. I wouldn't worry about the 1-3 being crowded I would worry about the 5 needing a rest. But then again two good 4s at the same time would do the job.

Not sure who hariston is, but Josh Hairston was who he was referring to. One of our only two officially committed players for '10-'11. He's more of a PF than Barnes will ever be.

Barnes will play the "Duke Four" as a 3/4 slasher but will get PT at both positions.

Miles might be smaller than Mason but he is more suited to play a traditional Center than Mason is, although other people feel differently than me...

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-28-2009, 05:05 PM
Isn't curry a 1, and barns a 4? I sooooo mis read what you wrote lol. To what you say about the 1-3 being full. barns takes lances spot, lose Jon so really we only gain one more guy for the 1-3 then we have this year. This what I see, 1)Irving and curry(Thornton not likely to play much) 2)smith, dawkins, sometimes curry. 3) singler(if he stays), Kelly. 4) barns, miles. 5) mason. The only thing that I don't know is who is hariston? I an guessing a typeo. Think about it if your bench is as good as others starters what happens? I mean if you can play the whole game and have to worry about you guys legs, when someone needs a rest put in someone and not have to worry. I wouldn't worry about the 1-3 being crowded I would worry about the 5 needing a rest. But then again two good 4s at the same time would do the job.

Hariston is a duke recruit....idk what you mean by that.....Imo Singler is more of a 4 then Barnes but idk.....We still are in the running for Josh Smith so i actually hope we get him because we would be great on all sides of the court.

airowe
09-28-2009, 05:09 PM
I know how fond everyone is about discussing the SN Athlete of the Decade (http://www.sportingnews.com/college-basketball/article/2009-09-24/sporting-news-college-basketball-athlete-decade-tyler-hansbrou), ;) but the expectations around here seem to favor Mason having a similar impact as a freshman.
Hansbrough came into the ACC with a crazy rep for eating right and working out with the weights....and it paid off. He was much stronger than the average freshman big man when he arrived, and it showed.

Mason by all accounts has some real toughness like TH, but needs the weight and strength (from what I read). Toughness is not enough at the ACC level on the blocks. He will be in the post with some really big, strong dudes.


Similar to Zeller's arrival, I've seen Mason listed at 6' 11" and anywhere from 210-220 lbs. That's certainly not anorexic, like Henson, but he likely needs more strength and weight to be a real force in the post. Remember how Zeller was muscled around last year?
(BTW, Hensen will not smell the post this year for UNC, IMO).



Mason is not 21 years old like Hansbrough was as a Freshman

Mason is a generous 230. http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&SPID=1845&SPSID=22727

He'll be able to hold his own.

meloveduke
09-28-2009, 05:12 PM
"Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. "

Don't want to rain on anybody's parade but two points.

It is not necessary to play four years to leave a legacy.

Lots of guys have made similar comments and found that a legacy didn't always measure up to a lucrative NBA contract.

Sure, Duke has had more than its share of recent four-year greats. But I suspect Singler has a good chance to be ACC POY and consensus first or second-team All-American. Most likely that would mean he's getting paid next season.

Just a guess.

You may be right, I don't I was just saying what singler told the guy that was interviewing him. If he leaves it will not rain on my perade. Yes I hope he stays, just from what I have read I think he stays, will he who knows. Its all just speculation at this point. I do think if someone says he will get a big contract or will go sub five he will probably go. I don't know I just see him as a four year guy like redick.

chrisheery
09-28-2009, 05:27 PM
You have told us you don't know who Hairston is, You think Curry is a pure point, you think Barnes is a 4, and you are confident Singler will stay after this year. Perhaps more thought should go into each post and make one well thought out post rather than many hard to understand ones.

If anything, Barnes is more like a two than a four. He is projected at SG by all scouts in the NBA. he even went to LBJ skills academy this summer to work on PG skills.

Curry is a scoring guard who is trying to work on PG skills. He's a lot like his brother.

Hairston is a top 25 recruit already committed for 2010. Plays PF though he has a very similar body type to Harrison Barnes.

To my point, all of these guys will be interchangable, allowing various lineups based on the matchups. Everyone should still play a lot.

ACCBBallFan
09-28-2009, 05:35 PM
Assuming Duke is fortunate enough to have both Barnes and Singler, it would be like having two wing forwards. So more a LWF and RWF interchangeable than SF/PF on offensive side except Kyle would guard the bigger opponent.

I hear what Jim Sumner is saying about other guys having said this before, such as Dunleavy or Avery or Maghette, but the difference here is that Kyle would potentially be on a team that is favored to win the NC the following year, as opposed to team losing all but him.

Singler wants his jersey hanging from the rafter and has not earned NPOY yet, and may end up being a second or third top vote getter this year.

Too early to tell until Duke actually gets Irving and Barnes, and we see how far this year's team advances. Elite 8 or better might wet his appetite more than an early exit.

So I see it more like JJ and Tyler Hansbrough where his draft status will not change that much YTY regardless of who else is in the draft, and legacy enhances by four years worth of career stats instead of 3.

Having a true PG could be the difference maker that enables Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to finish what they started out to do as frosh, as opposed to letting their former frosh teammate Taylor King claim it instead.

slower
09-28-2009, 05:45 PM
He was much stronger than the average freshman big man when he arrived...

and a lot older, too.

jimsumner
09-28-2009, 06:15 PM
"but the difference here is that Kyle would potentially be on a team that is favored to win the NC the following year, as opposed to team losing all but him."

Where would Duke be ranked this year if Henderson had decided to return, win national POY and get his jersey in the rafters?

Put Maggette on Duke 2000 or Dunleavy on Duke 2003 or Deng on Duke 2005.
Even McRoberts on 2008. Pretty good teams, national title-quality teams.

Look Kyle Singler is Kyle Singler, so we can't assume he'll follow the Hill/Batttier/Redick template any more than we can assume he'll follow the Avery/Maggette/McRoberts template.

And I don't KNOW anything for sure. I suspect Singler doesn't know anything for sure. I hope his focus is on the 2010 season, not the 2010 draft. But I remember last year when people were deluding themselves on Henderson based on comments eerily similar to those credited to Singler. So, I'm just not counting on seeing him suit up on senior day. Others may feel differently.

duketaylor
09-28-2009, 06:36 PM
Barnes is a wing forward/guard at either 6'5" or 6'6", extremely athletic. I've seen one guru comment he may be the best player to come out of HS (and go to college) in the last 10 years. I know that's a lofty statement.

As far as freshman Plumlee, this same guy says he's pretty certain he'll start this year and be a major force.

FireOgilvie
09-28-2009, 06:57 PM
Barnes is a wing forward/guard at either 6'5" or 6'6", extremely athletic. I've seen one guru comment he may be the best player to come out of HS (and go to college) in the last 10 years. I know that's a lofty statement.

As far as freshman Plumlee, this same guy says he's pretty certain he'll start this year and be a major force.

Barnes is listed between 6'6" and 6'8". I have no idea how tall he actually is though.

You're right about that being a lofty statement. I'm not trying to be negative about Barnes, because I think he's great, but he's not going to be better than guys like Carmelo Anthony or Kevin Durant. I doubt he'll put up the same numbers as Michael Beasley or Kevin Love and I think in addition, guys like Wall, Rose, Oden, and Mayo all had more NBA hype.

As far as Plumlee, I think people (not anyone in particular) need to relax a bit. I don't want to see a bunch of people in the 4th game of the season saying, "Why is Plumlee only averaging 8 points, 6 rebounds a game?"

Newton_14
09-28-2009, 07:44 PM
"but the difference here is that Kyle would potentially be on a team that is favored to win the NC the following year, as opposed to team losing all but him."

Where would Duke be ranked this year if Henderson had decided to return, win national POY and get his jersey in the rafters?

Put Maggette on Duke 2000 or Dunleavy on Duke 2003 or Deng on Duke 2005.
Even McRoberts on 2008. Pretty good teams, national title-quality teams.

Look Kyle Singler is Kyle Singler, so we can't assume he'll follow the Hill/Batttier/Redick template any more than we can assume he'll follow the Avery/Maggette/McRoberts template.

And I don't KNOW anything for sure. I suspect Singler doesn't know anything for sure. I hope his focus is on the 2010 season, not the 2010 draft. But I remember last year when people were deluding themselves on Henderson based on comments eerily similar to those credited to Singler. So, I'm just not counting on seeing him suit up on senior day. Others may feel differently.

Jim, I agree with you but offer one other comment attributed to Kyle from an interview this summer: He said he would not give up his Sr year at Duke to sit on the bench in the NBA. I do believe him on that point.

I think ultimately that will be the deciding factor for him. If he feels he is ready and gets feedback that he has a chance to play right away, I think he goes. But if the answer is No on both of those points, I think he will stay.

It is just really hard for most guys to turn down that money....

Kedsy
09-28-2009, 08:28 PM
I don't want to see a bunch of people in the 4th game of the season saying, "Why is Plumlee only averaging 8 points, 6 rebounds a game?"

If he's averaging 8 and 6, I assume most (Duke) people will be thrilled.

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-28-2009, 08:30 PM
Only if the other Bigs are doing well also

Kedsy
09-28-2009, 08:39 PM
Only if the other Bigs are doing well also

Are you kidding? Last year in the ACC, there were only three freshmen who had 6 or more rebounds per game, and only two of them had 8 or more ppg. If you wouldn't be thrilled with that production from Mason, you should be.

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-28-2009, 08:51 PM
I would rather have all the bigs getting good numbers then one Big getting great numbers and 8 ppg and 6 rpg arent GREAT numbers but i would rather have the bigs do well in a collective effort then Mason being a beast with everyone else doing bad.

NSDukeFan
09-28-2009, 09:12 PM
I would rather have all the bigs getting good numbers then one Big getting great numbers and 8 ppg and 6 rpg arent GREAT numbers but i would rather have the bigs do well in a collective effort then Mason being a beast with everyone else doing bad.

we all hope all the bigs do well, but either way, I will be thrilled if Mason averages 8ppg and 6rpg.

jimsumner
09-28-2009, 09:57 PM
Six rebounds per game doesn't seem that tough. But relatively few Duke freshmen have hit that mark.

In the modern era.

1977 Mike Gminski-10.7
1978-Gene Banks-8.6
1978-Kenny Dennard-6.3
1983 Mark Alarie-6.5
1998-Elton Brand-7.3
1998-Shane Battier-6.4
2000-Carlos Boozer-6.3
2004-Luol Deng-6.9

So, only five in the K era.

Extra credit if you knew that Dennard would make this list and Ferry (5.5), Laettner (4.9), Shel (5.9), and Singler (5.8) wouldn't.

meloveduke
09-28-2009, 10:56 PM
Maybe I shoul have looked harison and hariston(glad he is coming), everything I have seen about harison made me think he has a 4, but maybe I was reading about hariston. What ever happens if singler stays or goes of we get everyone else it will still be a good team. I knew Henderson was gone at the start of the year(hoped he would stay). I never heard hendrson say that he would or wouldn't he always said we will see. Singler doesn't want anyone to have the number 12 on there back after him. I think he will go if they offer enough money who wouldn't. Who knows it is way to early to tell what a 23-24 year old will do when offered a big pay check.

airowe
09-28-2009, 11:21 PM
Maybe I shoul have looked harison and hariston(glad he is coming), everything I have seen about harison made me think he has a 4, but maybe I was reading about hariston. What ever happens if singler stays or goes of we get everyone else it will still be a good team. I knew Henderson was gone at the start of the year(hoped he would stay). I never heard hendrson say that he would or wouldn't he always said we will see. Singler doesn't want anyone to have the number 12 on there back after him. I think he will go if they offer enough money who wouldn't. Who knows it is way to early to tell what a 23-24 year old will do when offered a big pay check.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=53923&postcount=4

We obviously need Jumbo to update this...

duketaylor
09-29-2009, 12:17 AM
that was incredible. With some of the incoming players and recruited players we'll have lots of typos/mistakes of name, so Jumbo will have his work cut out for him in such an update. Just Harrison Barnes and Josh Hairston will provide plenty of fodder, not to mention Austin Powers, er, Rivers when the time comes. Kyrie Irving will be butchered as well, no doubt. As long as K stays away from any Eastern Euro players, save Olek, we may survive, somehow;)

sagegrouse
09-29-2009, 12:24 AM
Maybe I shoul have looked harison and hariston(glad he is coming), everything I have seen about harison made me think he has a 4, but maybe I was reading about hariston. What ever happens if singler stays or goes of we get everyone else it will still be a good team. I knew Henderson was gone at the start of the year(hoped he would stay). I never heard hendrson say that he would or wouldn't he always said we will see. Singler doesn't want anyone to have the number 12 on there back after him. I think he will go if they offer enough money who wouldn't. Who knows it is way to early to tell what a 23-24 year old will do when offered a big pay check.

Here's my advice. Hit the button "Preview Post" before you "Submit Reply." Read it carefully and fix the obvious typos. Your message is basically unreadable. Also, punctuation and capital letters are not prohibited on the Board.

Not trying to be a moderator; just hate to see stuff this sloppy.

sagegrouse
'Clearly, the accent is on the second syllable of my name'

BlueintheFace
09-29-2009, 12:29 AM
Here's my advice. Hit the button "Preview Post" before you "Submit Reply." Read it carefully and fix the obvious typos. Your message is basically unreadable. Also, punctuation and capital letters are not prohibited on the Board.

Not trying to be a moderator; just hate to see stuff this sloppy.

sagegrouse
'Clearly, the accent is on the second syllable of my name'

Also, if some of you force yourselves to re-read your comments, you might wisely decide not to post them upon second thought.... just sayin

Jim3k
09-29-2009, 01:17 AM
I wouldn't count Kelly out of anything at all. Starter, first sub, bench, role player. He was the starting center on the U18 US team under Bob McKillop. McKillop is a damn good coach and chose who he believed was the best player. His other choice was Mason. So even if Mason is the stronger of the two, Kelly may be the more skilled player, at least in McKillop's judgment.

Of course it will all come out in the wash. I just think it's important not to anoint any of the players at this stage. Let them do what they need to do. It's all good.

SilkyJ
09-29-2009, 03:04 AM
"Don't be surprised if singler stays, he said in an interview he was looking to leave a legacy at duke. "

Don't want to rain on anybody's parade but two points.

It is not necessary to play four years to leave a legacy.

Lots of guys have made similar comments and found that a legacy didn't always measure up to a lucrative NBA contract.

Sure, Duke has had more than its share of recent four-year greats. But I suspect Singler has a good chance to be ACC POY and consensus first or second-team All-American. Most likely that would mean he's getting paid next season.

Just a guess.

I definitely think the chances of him being back are slim, but I also think its directly correlated to the honors you mention above. If he has a big year and gets to show that he can excel on the wing full time then his stock rises and he takes advantage of that. He said he wants to contribute to his pro team, so I think when his stock is high and people are telling him he can contribute sooner rather than later, he will go.


If he's averaging 8 and 6, I assume most (Duke) people will be thrilled.

Um, yea.


Also, if some of you force yourselves to re-read your comments, you might wisely decide not to post them upon second thought.... just sayin

That kinda seems a little snarky, but its really not. I do that all the time and decide that I'm not really contributing much so I won't clutter...

meloveduke
09-29-2009, 04:11 AM
Here's my advice. Hit the button "Preview Post" before you "Submit Reply." Read it carefully and fix the obvious typos. Your message is basically unreadable. Also, punctuation and capital letters are not prohibited on the Board.

Not trying to be a moderator; just hate to see stuff this sloppy.

sagegrouse
'Clearly, the accent is on the second syllable of my name'

Sorry I know it is not perfect but I was doing that from my phone.

JWA71
09-29-2009, 09:00 AM
Where would Duke be ranked this year if Henderson had decided to return, win national POY and get his jersey in the rafters?

Put Maggette on Duke 2000 or Dunleavy on Duke 2003 or Deng on Duke 2005.
Even McRoberts on 2008. Pretty good teams, national title-quality teams

You can add to that list Shavlik Randolf and the the 2006 team. That's six teams that would have been competing for the national title. (You could stretch a bit and add Livingston and Humphries.)

Your post clarified my thinking about the Duke's recruiting and early entry into the NBA. It's been death by a thousand cuts. (Well, maybe only six.) The problem is not that Duke hasn't recruited well. Sending six players into the NBA is a sign that you are doing a good job of recruiting. The problem has been that Duke hasn't been able to put those highly talented players on the court at the same time and become a great team.

UNC had a bunch of talented and experienced players on the 2005 and 2009 championship teams. What most people forget is that those players didn't have much success in March prior to the NCs. In particular, the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons ended bitterly for UNC.

Duke, by contrast, has been exceptionally consistent but hasn't had the talent needed to be highly successful in March while UNC has put together two NC runs but only one other FF appearance.

Jim

Kedsy
09-29-2009, 09:21 AM
What most people forget is that those players didn't have much success in March prior to the NCs. In particular, the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons ended bitterly for UNC.


Well, the 2008 UNC team made the Final Four, so it wasn't too bitter, was it?

NSDukeFan
09-29-2009, 09:22 AM
You can add to that list Shavlik Randolf and the the 2006 team. That's six teams that would have been competing for the national title. (You could stretch a bit and add Livingston and Humphries.)

Your post clarified my thinking about the Duke's recruiting and early entry into the NBA. It's been death by a thousand cuts. (Well, maybe only six.) The problem is not that Duke hasn't recruited well. Sending six players into the NBA is a sign that you are doing a good job of recruiting. The problem has been that Duke hasn't been able to put those highly talented players on the court at the same time and become a great team.

UNC had a bunch of talented and experienced players on the 2005 and 2009 championship teams. What most people forget is that those players didn't have much success in March prior to the NCs. In particular, the 2006, 2007 and 2008 seasons ended bitterly for UNC.

Duke, by contrast, has been exceptionally consistent but hasn't had the talent needed to be highly successful in March while UNC has put together two NC runs but only one other FF appearance.

Jim

I think Duke fans would gladly take the success UNC has had the last five years including 3 final fours (and hopefully we will see something similar in the next five years?), but otherwise, nice first post.

jimsumner
09-29-2009, 09:39 AM
"Sending six players into the NBA is a sign that you are doing a good job of recruiting. The problem has been that Duke hasn't been able to put those highly talented players on the court at the same time and become a great team."

Well, it's been a lot more than six.

Here's a complete list.

Elton Brand-2 years
William Avery-2 years
Corey Maggette-3 years
Jason Williams-1 year
Carlos Boozer-1 year
Mike Dunleavy-1 year
Luol Deng-3 years
Shaun Livingston-4 years
Shavlik Randolph-1 year
Josh McRoberts-2 years
Gerald Henderson-1 year

So, 11 players have left 21 Duke years on the table. A good decison for some, not so good for others. But clearly this has impacted the program.

And, if Duke signs the people they hope to sign, this will continue. That's the nature of the college-basketball-universe these days.

hq2
09-29-2009, 10:09 AM
That's precisely right. You need to rank Duke vs. how well the other programs are doing in keeping their players. Overall, Duke has done pretty well, relatively speaking; lots of other programs have routinely been one-and-done. Duke has at least gotten 2, maybe 3 years, out of players who might have only gone one year at another program. A case in point was the Jason Williams Carlos- Boozer year team, where Williams and Boozer might easily have gone pro a year earlier. Carolina has lost it's share of NBA players early too; the only reason this year's team stayed for another year is that none of them (except maybe Lawson) were rated highly by the pros. We've done O.K. compared to everybody else.

SupaDave
09-29-2009, 10:21 AM
Well, the 2008 UNC team made the Final Four, so it wasn't too bitter, was it?

Depends on if you want to factor in your head coach cheering on the team that just destroyed you with their logo on his chest... :)

Kedsy
09-29-2009, 11:31 AM
Depends on if you want to factor in your head coach cheering on the team that just destroyed you with their logo on his chest... :)

Funny, I thought that was rather sweet.

SupaDave
10-06-2009, 02:49 PM
Watzone on Mason...

http://bluedevilnation.net/2009/10/2009-10-duke-basketball-player-profile-mason-plumlee/

DevilDan
10-07-2009, 11:31 AM
After scanning the last couple of weeks of posts, I must remind .... "meanwhile, back at the Ranch" .... isn't this thread about MASON PLUMLEE ? Duh, that is what is says at the top of my screen, at least.

MASON is a huge key to the success of the frontcourt. NOLAN is a huge key to the success of the backcourt. MASON's play is going to affect the performance (not only of his brother but) the rest of the big guys. He's going to at the very least PUSH the returnees for minutes, by being the basketball jones (hopefully with some Coach K "D' thrown in) that he IS. Better yet, if this guy gets the court time, then posts the 8 & 6 you guys are kicking around .... PLUS the blocks, passes, and hoop karma that will go with that playing time that I see coming, DUKE is going to have a HELL OF A YEAR.

I just got my first two NCAA Basketball mags (DUKE #8 in one, #12 in the other), and I couldn't be more pleased. We sit somewhere in the second tier of the predicted good teams, ready to ROCK and bust into the Top 5, sometime around 2/01/10. MASON and the other recruits are getting token ink, which is FINE with me.

If NOLAN is productive and dynamic, it's going to mean great stuff from JON, and at some point ANDRE. We have two of the top 30 players in the country in KYLE & JON, boys and girls ... mix in the MASON and NOLAN factors, and this team will explode late in the season.

And thanks for allowing me to get in a few words about the subject of "this here" thread (writing from CALIFORNIA, but haven't completely given up my NORTH CAROLINA roots ... still a proud Southern Boy, who bleeds DUKE BLUE)

Sayonara !

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2009, 12:05 PM
After scanning the last couple of weeks of posts, I must remind .... "meanwhile, back at the Ranch" .... isn't this thread about MASON PLUMLEE ? Duh, that is what is says at the top of my screen, at least.

MASON is a huge key to the success of the frontcourt. NOLAN is a huge key to the success of the backcourt. MASON's play is going to affect the performance (not only of his brother but) the rest of the big guys. He's going to at the very least PUSH the returnees for minutes, by being the basketball jones (hopefully with some Coach K "D' thrown in) that he IS. Better yet, if this guy gets the court time, then posts the 8 & 6 you guys are kicking around .... PLUS the blocks, passes, and hoop karma that will go with that playing time that I see coming, DUKE is going to have a HELL OF A YEAR.

I just got my first two NCAA Basketball mags (DUKE #8 in one, #12 in the other), and I couldn't be more pleased. We sit somewhere in the second tier of the predicted good teams, ready to ROCK and bust into the Top 5, sometime around 2/01/10. MASON and the other recruits are getting token ink, which is FINE with me.

If NOLAN is productive and dynamic, it's going to mean great stuff from JON, and at some point ANDRE. We have two of the top 30 players in the country in KYLE & JON, boys and girls ... mix in the MASON and NOLAN factors, and this team will explode late in the season.

And thanks for allowing me to get in a few words about the subject of "this here" thread (writing from CALIFORNIA, but haven't completely given up my NORTH CAROLINA roots ... still a proud Southern Boy, who bleeds DUKE BLUE)

Sayonara !

You know you're only supposed to capitalize the first letter in each pronoun, right? ;)

I agree with you on the Mason factor. He will be huge for this team. But I have been saying (for the whole summer) that what separates us from being really good to being really great are the performances of Nolan and Lance. I think they are the keys for us. If Nolan can provide 15 and 4 (assists), which I think is realistic, and Thomas can provide 12 and 7, which is not as realistic, then we will be dynamite! I think people are expecting Mason to step right in and dominate, which may or may not happen. I think that's why I feel that Mason is not the key to our success, but rather an integral part of our team.

Kedsy
10-07-2009, 01:02 PM
You know you're only supposed to capitalize the first letter in each pronoun, right? ;)

I agree with you on the Mason factor. He will be huge for this team. But I have been saying (for the whole summer) that what separates us from being really good to being really great are the performances of Nolan and Lance. I think they are the keys for us. If Nolan can provide 15 and 4 (assists), which I think is realistic, and Thomas can provide 12 and 7, which is not as realistic, then we will be dynamite! I think people are expecting Mason to step right in and dominate, which may or may not happen. I think that's why I feel that Mason is not the key to our success, but rather an integral part of our team.

Lance Thomas going 12 and 7? Seriously? There were eight (8) guys in the whole ACC who did that last year. I'll feel good if Lance goes 6 and 4, which may still not be entirely realistic. I'll be thrilled if Nolan goes 12 and 3 (assts) (There were only 17 players in the ACC who averaged 15ppg last year).

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2009, 01:26 PM
Lance Thomas going 12 and 7? Seriously? There were eight (8) guys in the whole ACC who did that last year. I'll feel good if Lance goes 6 and 4, which may still not be entirely realistic. I'll be thrilled if Nolan goes 12 and 3 (assts) (There were only 17 players in the ACC who averaged 15ppg last year).

Lance went 5.3 and 3.6 last year, so 6 and 4 is very possible, considering:
a) Lance will have an increased role this year
b) Lance is going back to his natural position
c) No more G or Elliott to pick up rebounds
d) Has more responsibility on the team considering he is now a captain
e) Has apparently improved greatly over the summer, including a more comfortable jump shot.

I do think that 12 and 7 is a little too high and I realize that now. But I really think that achieving 10 and 5.5 isn't out the question. As I said, to be great, Thomas needs to put it up big time.

For Nolan, look at our backcourt. We have 3 players! Nolan will have to pick it up, and I think he will. I'm calling it now - Nolan will score over 14 points a game by the end of the season (I'm not giving a number for assists, though. Not to sure on that point).

jimsumner
10-07-2009, 03:43 PM
6 and 4 seems realistic. Maybe 7 and 5. The big variable here is Lance's presumed move from the 5 to the 4, maybe some 3. Playing further from the basket might enable him to maximize his quickness, while guarding smaller players might keep him from wearing down. That's assuming that ACC 4 are appreciably smaller than ACC 5, which isn't always the case.

I'm not sure the absence of Henderson and Williams will free up many rebounds, however. One would assume that Singler will get more boards at the 3 than did Henderson last year. Can Lance approach Singler's rebounding totals at the 4?


Probably not because IMO he's going to have a hard time getting the PT necessary to get much more than 5 rpg. Remember, he's going to be competing against Zoubek, Kelly, and the two Plumlees for PT at the 4/5 and Singler will play some 4 in end-of-game-situations. Czyz might factor in here too.

Lots of options inside, more than in a long time.

SupaDave
10-07-2009, 04:12 PM
I think one of Lance's main goals this year will be to set the pace. With that established, the rest of the boys come in and bang harder.

I see Mason as one of the main beneficiaries from Lance's improved play. If teams have to defend Lance - the whole floor opens up.

Greg_Newton
10-07-2009, 05:28 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6-1mbfx6gg

BlueintheFace
10-07-2009, 05:41 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6-1mbfx6gg

If only Duke had a good Big Man;)

chrisheery
10-07-2009, 06:22 PM
Its at the 1:03 or 1:04 mark. Awesome






(His last name on his jersey reads Henson 22)

slower
10-07-2009, 06:31 PM
Its at the 1:03 or 1:04 mark. Awesome






(His last name on his jersey reads Henson 22)

in search of video of Henson dunking on Mason. Wait for it...

airowe
10-07-2009, 06:55 PM
in search of video of Henson dunking on Mason. Wait for it...

While we're waiting, let's revisit the last highlight video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lge2VOEsQlo&feature=player_embedded

A lot of the same footage, but some different shots and angles...

Kid's gonna be a stud.

SilkyJ
10-07-2009, 06:57 PM
Lance went 5.3 and 3.6 last year, so 6 and 4 is very possible, considering:
a) Lance will have an increased role this year
b) Lance is going back to his natural position
c) No more G or Elliott to pick up rebounds
d) Has more responsibility on the team considering he is now a captain
e) Has apparently improved greatly over the summer, including a more comfortable jump shot.

I do think that 12 and 7 is a little too high and I realize that now. But I really think that achieving 10 and 5.5 isn't out the question. As I said, to be great, Thomas needs to put it up big time.

For Nolan, look at our backcourt. We have 3 players! Nolan will have to pick it up, and I think he will. I'm calling it now - Nolan will score over 14 points a game by the end of the season (I'm not giving a number for assists, though. Not to sure on that point).

A ridiculously optimistic post; I like the optimism, but its ridiculous.

Since you're "calling it" I'll bet you that Nolan doesn't average more than 14ppg, heck I'll take 13ppg. You want to take it? Loser has to have some sort of laudatory logo in their sig dedicated to the winner (see Evans, Jason - handle: JasonEvans)

As for Lance, I'll beat my dead horse: What after 3 years leads to believe he's going to step it up big time? And why is he going to have an increased role? He's played a lot through his first 3 years and has been a steady contributor, but nothing more. And not for lack of PT: he has averaged 18mpg or so for his career. And now that he is competing in the most crowded frontcourt Duke has had in some 10+ years you think the man who has averaged 4/4 for his career is going to see an increased role? WHAT?!

How about instead of listing several statements, you offer rationales behind them so we don't have to pick them apart. You try and write a rationale, and when you can't you then don't write the statement in the first place.

(and I didn't even get to parts the part about G and Elliot...the same elliot who didn't play 2/3 of the year...yea, he was really stealing Lance's Boards)

flyingdutchdevil
10-07-2009, 07:18 PM
A ridiculously optimistic post; I like the optimism, but its ridiculous.

Since you're "calling it" I'll bet you that Nolan doesn't average more than 14ppg, heck I'll take 13ppg. You want to take it? Loser has to have some sort of laudatory logo in their sig dedicated to the winner (see Evans, Jason - handle: JasonEvans)

As for Lance, I'll beat my dead horse: What after 3 years leads to believe he's going to step it up big time? And why is he going to have an increased role? He's played a lot through his first 3 years and has been a steady contributor, but nothing more. And not for lack of PT: he has averaged 18mpg or so for his career. And now that he is competing in the most crowded frontcourt Duke has had in some 10+ years you think the man who has averaged 4/4 for his career is going to see an increased role? WHAT?!

How about instead of listing several statements, you offer rationales behind them so we don't have to pick them apart. You try and write a rationale, and when you can't you then don't write the statement in the first place.

(and I didn't even get to parts the part about G and Elliot...the same elliot who didn't play 2/3 of the year...yea, he was really stealing Lance's Boards)

You seem a little angry. As for the Nolan bet, come on?! A "laudatory logo"? Please be a little more original. And if you can't think of a good bet, don't bet at all. My pride isn't at stake here - it's a forum!!

Anyway, back to Duke basketball, I don't see why you think Nolan can't perform. He averaged 10ppg before he hurt his knee. And that was with a stacked back court which included G, a player that averaged more shots than anyone else on the team and is now gone. Hence, more opportunity for Nolan. Plus, with a depleted backcourt, I don't think that Nolan can expend as much energy on defense, leaving more for offense. Our backcourt defense may suffer, but our frontcourt D will pick up the slack. That means more offense for Nolan. Averaging 14ppg with a healthy knee and more offensive opportunities isn't out of the question. I think Nolan can, and will, achieve it.

As for Thomas, this is a guy playing out of position for 5 years due to necessity. There wasn't a player agile enough to guard mobile 5s, which, compared to Zoubek, everyone in the ACC was. As it stands, I see 4 legit frontcourt players: Z, MP1 and 2 and Lance. I think that Kelly will play the 3 behind Singler (any other year, it would be the 4). In the frontcourt, Lance is great at putbacks, and he proved that at the end of the season. With MP1 and MP2 (especially MP2), there will be a lot of opportunity for that. Also, rumor has it that Lance has improved his jump shot. Sure - it's no Singler and don't be dynamite, but it could be effective. I think that 10ppg is definitely and huge reach and I would be surprised if he achieved it, but not shocked.

slower
10-07-2009, 08:16 PM
Unlike Shav and McBob, the two big guys who seem to catch the most criticism around here, I just have a feeling that Mason will put it all together. He seems to have the aggressiveness that Shav lacked, is (by all indications so far) a good "chemistry" guy and just seems to exude positive energy. Yeah, I know that's all very subjective, but I'm really psyched about him.

Not to short-change Kelly and Dawkins, by the way. Maybe the lower expectations (at least, most of the folks on this board seem to expect less of them than of Mason) will ease the pressure on them. If they can both live up to their reps as shooters, they could be VERY nice surprises. Dawkins, in particular, has a SWEET stroke.

chrisheery
10-07-2009, 08:26 PM
in search of video of Henson dunking on Mason. Wait for it...

Yeah, it would be hard to find a better one than that though. He put is [area] in his face after spinning on him in the post. Thats a man's move.

slower
10-07-2009, 08:30 PM
Yeah, it would be hard to find a better one than that though. He put is [area] in his face after spinning on him in the post. Thats a man's move.

Mason's gonna make a lot of highlight clips. Ready for some posterization!

SilkyJ
10-07-2009, 11:39 PM
You seem a little angry.

I live in California, I'm always chilled. I am bothered by folks who, to me, seem uninformed and not very knowledgeable when it comes to Duke bball and make ridiculous claims on the board that I have come to love for its intelligent discussion. Kinda like the guys who said Elliot would start over Scheyer last year and the guy(s) who said Lance could average 12 and 7 this year, which is about what Kyle averaged as a freshman (just under 13/6). So far, I have ranted at both camps.



As for the Nolan bet, come on?! A "laudatory logo"? Please be a little more original. And if you can't think of a good bet, don't bet at all. My pride isn't at stake here - it's a forum!!


Its been done several times on this "forum," so thats why I went with precedent. You weren't around for all of them. State your terms.



Anyway, back to Duke basketball, I don't see why you think Nolan can't perform.


Please link or quote any post of mine where I said that Nolan can't "perform." I think Nolan is A (not the) key to our season and think he will perform quite well. Do I think he'll score 13-14ppg, probably not, though I hope so.



He averaged 10ppg before he hurt his knee. And that was with a stacked back court which included G, a player that averaged more shots than anyone else on the team and is now gone. Hence, more opportunity for Nolan. Plus, with a depleted backcourt, I don't think that Nolan can expend as much energy on defense, leaving more for offense. Our backcourt defense may suffer, but our frontcourt D will pick up the slack. That means more offense for Nolan. Averaging 14ppg with a healthy knee and more offensive opportunities isn't out of the question. I think Nolan can, and will, achieve it.


I think the point about G is solid. Nolan is now our 3rd option on offense instead of 4th or 5th, so he should raise his average.

As for the energy thing: have you met Coach K? We play 100% on both ends of the floor every play. If we don't have depth, we get in better shape to play more minutes (see Reddick, Jonathon Clay). And on Mike Krzyzewski's team there is certainly no "saving energy" on DEFENSE. Coach K is all about DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE. Surely you know this.



In the frontcourt, Lance is great at putbacks, and he proved that at the end of the season. With MP1 and MP2 (especially MP2), there will be a lot of opportunity for that. Also, rumor has it that Lance has improved his jump shot. Sure - it's no Singler and don't be dynamite, but it could be effective. I think that 10ppg is definitely and huge reach and I would be surprised if he achieved it, but not shocked.

I think you're confused. How does having MP1 and MP2 around create MORE opportunities for Lance to make some putbacks? Both guys are taller and can jump higher than lance, and will be playing closer to the basket. That means THEY are going to get the putbacks. Those guys are going to steal rebounds and putbacks from Lance....oh wait I forgot, you think that somehow having two 6'4 guys off our team means Lance will get more rebounds...

BlueintheFace
10-08-2009, 12:17 AM
Silky, I'll take that bet if you make it 12ppg. Basically a 4pt jump. You want in?

BlueintheFace
10-08-2009, 02:01 PM
No? Anybody else want to bet profile sigs that Nolan won't average at least 12ppg this season?

allenmurray
10-08-2009, 02:10 PM
As for Lance, I'll beat my dead horse: What after 3 years leads to believe he's going to step it up big time? And why is he going to have an increased role? He's played a lot through his first 3 years and has been a steady contributor, but nothing more. And not for lack of PT: he has averaged 18mpg or so for his career. And now that he is competing in the most crowded frontcourt Duke has had in some 10+ years you think the man who has averaged 4/4 for his career is going to see an increased role? WHAT?!

Coach K seems to think so - or does he just write names on slips of paper and put them in a hat to choose team captains?

airowe
10-08-2009, 02:12 PM
No? Anybody else want to bet profile sigs that Nolan won't average at least 12ppg this season?

I'm in your side on this BITF.

chrisheery
10-08-2009, 02:22 PM
Not sure what a profile sig is, but I will take the side of:

Nolan averaging >12ppg, >4.5apg, >2rpg, >0.7stealspg

Lance: >9ppg, >6rpg

I think those are fair and acheivable. Moreso, I think both will be more of a threat in each individual game, which will allows others more room to operate. If Lance scores >15 points in more than 2 games in the early going, even if he doesn't average a lot, it makes other teams respect him more.

Kedsy
10-08-2009, 02:26 PM
Not sure what a profile sig is, but I will take the side of:

Nolan averaging >12ppg, >4.5apg, >2rpg, >0.7stealspg

Lance: >9ppg, >6rpg

I think those are fair and acheivable. Moreso, I think both will be more of a threat in each individual game, which will allows others more room to operate. If Lance scores >15 points in more than 2 games in the early going, even if he doesn't average a lot, it makes other teams respect him more.

If it weren't for the issue that I would never want to bet against a Duke player, I'd take your bet. No way Lance goes 9 and 6. And I'd be very surprised if Nolan gets 4.5+ apg. That's too much of a jump from what he's done in the past.

However, if even one of your projections come through, Duke is going to be a really, really good team.

airowe
10-08-2009, 02:31 PM
So, what are people's projections for Mason Plumlee?

Can he be on the ACC All-Freshmen team behind two scoring threats such as Scheyer and Singler?

Do you think he'll get enough playing time to make an impact?

NSDukeFan
10-08-2009, 02:33 PM
Not sure what a profile sig is, but I will take the side of:

Nolan averaging >12ppg, >4.5apg, >2rpg, >0.7stealspg

Lance: >9ppg, >6rpg

I think those are fair and acheivable. Moreso, I think both will be more of a threat in each individual game, which will allows others more room to operate. If Lance scores >15 points in more than 2 games in the early going, even if he doesn't average a lot, it makes other teams respect him more.

I expect Nolan to average about 12 ppg, would be very pleasantly surprised to see him average 4.5 apg sharing ball-handling duties with Jon, disappointed if he didn't average at least 2 rebounds (he was at 2.2 last year) and 1 steal per game (he was at .9 last year).

My expectations for Lance are more along the lines of 7 ppg and 4.5 rpg. I would be pleasantly surprised if he exceeded those.

chrisheery
10-08-2009, 02:35 PM
I have to admit the apg is wishful thinking based on what I have read bout his summer coupled with the fact that he will be relied upon at all times this year. I don't think it is impossible, but you are right, I probably wouldn't actually bet on that.

I think the RPG for lance are reasonable. 6 is not a lot, and he will be on the court quite a bit in many different lineups from the way projections seem to shake out. He will play with both the "big" and "small" lineups. I guess he just needs to actually hang onto the ball instead of tipping it out or away from someone else.

jimsumner
10-08-2009, 02:43 PM
Some perspective on 7 rpg, a number bandied about.

Mark Alarie hit that benchmark once, 7.2 in 1984.
Jay Bilas never made it.
Alaa Abdelnaby never made it.
Tony Lang never came close.
Roshown McLeod never came close.
Shane Battier made it once, 7.3 in 2001
Carlos Boozer made it once, 8.7 in 2002.
Mike Dunleavy made it once, 7.2 in 2003.
Luol Deng just missed in his one year at Duke.

These guys all played more mpg than Lance is likely to garner this year and I think it's safe to say that all were better players than Lance.

So, 7 rpg may not seem like much but it's tougher than we think.

NSDukeFan
10-08-2009, 02:44 PM
So, what are people's projections for Mason Plumlee?

Can he be on the ACC All-Freshmen team behind two scoring threats such as Scheyer and Singler?

Do you think he'll get enough playing time to make an impact?

I would be happy if Mason averaged 8ppg, 6rpg for next year. I definitely expect him to get enough playing time to make an impact. I don't know if that would be enough to be on the all-freshmen team though.

I'm trying to think of who I would expect on the freshmen team, and I would include Favors, Snaer, but don't know after that. Strickland may get a shot at quite a bit of playing time. Who knows where Henson will get his minutes, but my expectations would be similar to Mason in that I think he will be one of the five most talented, but may not get the minutes. Ryan Kelly may fall into this category as well. Milton Jennings as well, he could be an impact frosh. Maybe his teammate Noel Johnson, Ari Stewart at Wake? I guess I expect Mason to be in the mix, but who knows. I guess that's why (eventually, it can't come soon enough) they play the games.

chrisheery
10-08-2009, 02:51 PM
Some perspective on 7 rpg, a number bandied about.

Mark Alarie hit that benchmark once, 7.2 in 1984.
Jay Bilas never made it.
Alaa Abdelnaby never made it.
Tony Lang never came close.
Roshown McLeod never came close.
Shane Battier made it once, 7.3 in 2001
Carlos Boozer made it once, 8.7 in 2002.
Mike Dunleavy made it once, 7.2 in 2003.
Luol Deng just missed in his one year at Duke.

These guys all played more mpg than Lance is likely to garner this year and I think it's safe to say that all were better players than Lance.

So, 7 rpg may not seem like much but it's tougher than we think.

Wow, that is suprising. To be fair, though, when I said >6, I meant like 6.1 or even 6.01, not 7.

Plus, a lot of these guys had a more perimeter oriented game than Lance, esp Shane, Roshown, Deng, Dunleavy. I am shocked that Bilas wasn't even close. His numbers are really suprisingly low. I am a little bit surprised he was drafted.

All that said, maybe > or equal to 5rpg is more realistic. He was only 3.6 rpg last year. Wow

jimsumner
10-08-2009, 02:52 PM
RE: all freshman team.

I would expect Durand Scott at Miami to be in the mix. They've got to replace a lot of perimeter scoring and he's likely to get lots of touches.

jimsumner
10-08-2009, 02:55 PM
Chris,

A poster earlier in the thread was projecting 12/7 for Lance. So, that's where I came up with the number.

NSDukeFan
10-08-2009, 03:06 PM
RE: all freshman team.

I would expect Durand Scott at Miami to be in the mix. They've got to replace a lot of perimeter scoring and he's likely to get lots of touches.

I forgot about Miami, when thinking of potential all-freshmen team members.

SilkyJ
10-08-2009, 05:08 PM
Silky, I'll take that bet if you make it 12ppg. Basically a 4pt jump. You want in?

Naw, I think 11-12 is right about where he'll be. I'd take 13 or 14, like I said.


Not sure what a profile sig is, but I will take the side of:

Nolan averaging >12ppg, >4.5apg, >2rpg, >0.7stealspg

Lance: >9ppg, >6rpg


I'll take this. Lance will not average either of those, and Nolan will DEFINITELY not hit 4.5apg.

Look at the end of this post where it says "silky shmoove singler." That's a profile sig.


Some perspective on 7 rpg, a number bandied about.

Mark Alarie hit that benchmark once, 7.2 in 1984.
Jay Bilas never made it.
Alaa Abdelnaby never made it.
Tony Lang never came close.
Roshown McLeod never came close.
Shane Battier made it once, 7.3 in 2001
Carlos Boozer made it once, 8.7 in 2002.
Mike Dunleavy made it once, 7.2 in 2003.
Luol Deng just missed in his one year at Duke.

These guys all played more mpg than Lance is likely to garner this year and I think it's safe to say that all were better players than Lance.

So, 7 rpg may not seem like much but it's tougher than we think.

Thanks, Jim. If I wasn't so busy this week I'd have tried to bring some perspective on how silly of a prediction that was. I would also kindly ask that you not kindly exclude me from the "tougher than WE think" as I jumped on that poster promptly :) (kidding)

SilkyJ
10-08-2009, 05:09 PM
Coach K seems to think so - or does he just write names on slips of paper and put them in a hat to choose team captains?

Unrelated. Have you heard of Paulus, Greg and Melchionni, Lee. Both were captains as seniors and both experienced drop offs in most/all major statical categories. Being a "leader" via a captain role does not translate to stepping it up in terms of production on the court.

Just so people don't think I'm Lance bashing: I think Lance will start plenty of games and play a meaningful role. But I also think Dave McClure played a meaningful role the last 2 seasons due to his defense, bball IQ, and versatility. Thats where I see Lance contributing, not with big stats, but with heady plays and his versatility to guard the 2-5 positions.

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=258
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/statlines.php?playerid=497

Kedsy
10-08-2009, 07:52 PM
Wow, that is suprising. To be fair, though, when I said >6, I meant like 6.1 or even 6.01, not 7.


Even 6 rebs per game is harder than you think. Only 18 players in the entire ACC averaged 6+ rpg last year. That's one or two per team. Obviously it's not always evenly distributed, but last year NO team in the league had more than two 6+ rpg guys.

For Duke, I expect Kyle to have 6+ rpg. I'm hoping Mason does, but if so it'll mean he'll be in the all-freshman discussion. Based on his rebounds per minute his first three years, if Z plays 18+ mpg he has a shot at 6+ rpg, although my guess is he won't get quite that many minutes. But Lance is very much a long shot to get 6 rpg, especially since he'll have the other three ahead of him (as well as Miles) competing for boards. While I like Lance, I will personally be surprised if his rebound average gets as high as 5.

Kedsy
10-08-2009, 07:57 PM
I would be happy if Mason averaged 8ppg, 6rpg for next year. I definitely expect him to get enough playing time to make an impact. I don't know if that would be enough to be on the all-freshmen team though.

Last year Ed Davis made All-freshman and he averaged 6.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg. If Mason gets to 8 and 6 he'll probably be on the team.

jimsumner
10-08-2009, 08:02 PM
"Last year Ed Davis made All-freshman and he averaged 6.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg"

True. But last year the ACC was a veteran league with a so-so freshman class.

This year, the ACC is younger and the freshman class is more highly regarded.

BlueintheFace
10-09-2009, 01:50 PM
Naw, I think 11-12 is right about where he'll be. I'd take 13 or 14, like I said.

...smart man