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Bluedog
09-24-2009, 05:20 PM
I wanted to revamp this thread from the Public Policy board since I found it interesting to monitor people's thoughts of the market and it wasn't at all controversial or acrimonious. I even thought that it seemed out of place on the Public Policy board. I guess government policies play a role in the market movement, but the thread was more about what people thought about the market's future direction and investment vehicles as opposed to a discussion of fiscal policies, so it didn't seem to fit the public policy bill to me.

Mods - feel free to chime in if you feel differently.

Here's a cached version, but it doesn't have the latest posts on it:
http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:0owlmiVC9CcJ:www.dukebasketballrepo rt.com/forums/showthread.php%3Ft%3D16887

Perhaps it's possible to resuscitate the complete thread.

On that note, market down 1% today on housing report numbers. I'm not optimistic in the short-term. We seem due for a pullback of 7-10% over the month or two, IMO. But I'm not going to try to time it.

Cavlaw
09-24-2009, 06:27 PM
FWIW, I endorse the continuation of this thread.

dukestheheat
09-25-2009, 07:41 AM
Well, Bernanke has said recently that the recession is pretty close to 'being over' and at least historically, hiring begins to improve about six months after that type of declaration is made. If that plays out exactly, by late March we should see a spike in hiring; the markets should begin to slowly move upward beginning then.

And if Cavlaw says this thread needs to continue, so be it!

dth.

Greg_Newton
10-01-2009, 08:10 PM
Thought I'd "re-resurrect" this before it fades too far back. Any guesses on what's going to happen tomorrow? I wouldn't be surprised to see a big drop... the writing's been on the wall for a while now, and today seemed like it could have been the trigger. Guess we'll see.

(Disclaimer: I'm on record in the previous thread as entering a short position on the S&P a week or so ago when Dow was at 9,800, so I may be wearing "red tinted glasses"...):rolleyes:

YourLandlord
10-01-2009, 09:32 PM
Any guesses on what's going to happen tomorrow?

Here's my 1 day market prediction :) : up 0.75%

The Gordog
10-02-2009, 01:59 PM
Here's my 1 day market prediction :) : up 0.75%

Things are looking pretty flat today. Since some number of trades set things to auto-pilot around this time of the day on Friday I do not expect any sudden moves.

I have been hearing about the need for a correction from some people for some time now, but I don't see it. The fundmentals are not crazy out-of-whack, but most importantly, sentiment is mixed as far as I am hearing: plenty of Bears and plenty of Bulls. So while a correctionwouldn't shock me, I think it's more likely to continue roughly sideways for a while yet (a few months at least.) For the record I'm mostly invested with about 15% still on the sidelines and about 20% international.

Maxwell1977
10-02-2009, 04:23 PM
Considering that real unemployment (http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx)is ~16%, I'm wondering if the market surge is a Pump N' Dump on a massive scale.:confused:

YourLandlord
10-02-2009, 08:23 PM
Considering that real unemployment (http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx)is ~16%, I'm wondering if the market surge is a Pump N' Dump on a massive scale.:confused:

Uhh...probably not.

Anyway:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsXzzDSUSqI/AAAAAAAAGfM/PWX-2daRZ0w/s1600/EmploymentJobLossesRecessions.jpg

OldPhiKap
10-02-2009, 08:44 PM
Put me down for a "W" -- time to test the 200 day moving average soon.