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View Full Version : Better Duke backcourt? Last year vs. this year.



houstondukie
09-13-2009, 01:18 AM
2008-2009
Greg Paulus - Sr.
Gerald Henderson - Jr.
Jon Scheyer - Jr.
Nolan Smith - So.
Elliot Williams - Fr.


2009-2010
Jon Scheyer - Sr.
Kyle Singler - Jr.
Nolan Smith - Jr.
Andre Dawkins - Fr.

ScreechTDX1847
09-13-2009, 07:20 AM
I'm sorry, but what would possibly make this year's back court better than last years?

Dawkins does not replace Paulus, Elliot and Gerald. I don't think Sheyer and Smith's maturation make up the difference.

sivartrenrag
09-13-2009, 07:40 AM
Last year, no question. Unless you count Kyle moving to the backcourt, but even then Kyle "changing positions" can't make up for the loss of Gerald, Greg, and Elliot.

There's an argument that this year's team could potentially be better than last years, but there's no way this year's backcourt is better than last years. At least we can't say so right now.

DevilDan
09-13-2009, 09:44 AM
Hmmmm ... a good arguing point, but posed about three months early. I am excited about our backcourt, and salivating over having KYLE play so many positions, whether outside or in. This is going to be a very exciting team, especially if NOLAN gets consistent, and ANDRE becomes the contributor many think he can in his first year.

The frontcourt is "seashells and balloons" (robbed from the late GREAT AL McGUIRE, when he was elated about something). The competition between LANCE, BRIAN, and (very possibly) an energized MILES -- not to mention the electric addition of one MASON PLUMLEE, kicking in KYLE when needed ... is going to give us a dimension we've not had in (YOU COUNT THE) years. And I didn't forget RYAN ...

And a closing observation ... best wishes to EWILL in his new surroundings, I hope his being nearer his Mom will give both of them the closeness and energy they need. But now back to hoops .... with this DUKE lineup, (knowing this will be an unpopular point of view) I just don't see that he would have had a niche or made a significant contribution. We are loaded, boys and girls ... it's just a matter of 10-12 games, before this DUKE team (in the hands of the best Coach in America) will blossom into one of the BEST in the country. YOU HEARD IT HERE .... GO DUKE !

Devilsfan
09-13-2009, 10:04 AM
Next years may be better than both. If Dawkins and Irving are as good as hyped. Add that to Smith and we might have a very athletic as well as talented backcourt.

houstondukie
09-13-2009, 11:52 AM
I'm sorry, but what would possibly make this year's back court better than last years?

Dawkins does not replace Paulus, Elliot and Gerald. I don't think Sheyer and Smith's maturation make up the difference.

Maybe because the backcourt now has a preseason 1st team all-american - Kyle Singler.

Last years backcourt may be better, but consider this:

Scheyer Sr. > Scheyer Jr.
Smith Jr. > Smith So.
Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr.
Dawkins Fr. = Williams Fr.

ice-9
09-13-2009, 12:09 PM
Devilsfan, don't forget Curry!

It's hard to say which is the better backcourt, primarily because it's difficult to predict how much Scheyer and Nolan have improved.

But Gerald is a lottery pick, and Singler being on this year's backcourt is a mere technicality as he often played on the perimeter last year. Moreover, last year's backcourt has way more depth.

That said, it all depends on how Nolan and Scheyer mature.

mapei
09-13-2009, 01:21 PM
I think Scheyer was mature the day he stepped on the court. I wouldn't expect much change from the steady play we've been seeing from him. Nolan still has upside, but in his case I've been a little disappointed that it hasn't matured sooner. We can hope to see an upgrade there, but I don't think it is assured.

Meanwhile, losing EWill and G is a very big couple of losses. We're losing our flash. Unless Dawkins proves to have Singler-like precociousness as a freshman, our backcourt must be considered a limiting factor this year and the frontcourt will have to carry the team, very non-Duke-like.

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-13-2009, 01:44 PM
The frontcourt is not going to carry Duke. The Backcourt will continue to carry Duke.

NSDukeFan
09-13-2009, 01:50 PM
Maybe because the backcourt now has a preseason 1st team all-american - Kyle Singler.

Last years backcourt may be better, but consider this:

Scheyer Sr. > Scheyer Jr.
Smith Jr. > Smith So.
Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr.
Dawkins Fr. = Williams Fr.

I think this is the best argument against those who automatically assume last year's backcourt was better. I think last year's backcourt had more depth, but I would have to believe our starters this year will be better based on my agreement with your chart above. If we stay healthy, big if, our backcourt-wing does look good.

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-13-2009, 02:10 PM
I think it could be assumed Dawkins will be better the Williams because Dawkins would get more PT earlier and develop faster. Williams was great at the end of the year, so just imagine if he had PT earlier. I think Andre will be better by the end of the year.

ACCBBallFan
09-13-2009, 02:22 PM
Maybe because the backcourt now has a preseason 1st team all-american - Kyle Singler.

Last years backcourt may be better, but consider this:

Scheyer Sr. > Scheyer Jr.
Smith Jr. > Smith So.
Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr.
Dawkins Fr. = Williams Fr.


I think this is the best argument against those who automatically assume last year's backcourt was better. I think last year's backcourt had more depth, but I would have to believe our starters this year will be better based on my agreement with your chart above. If we stay healthy, big if, our backcourt-wing does look good.

Good argument. It depends on whether you go 4 or 5 deep and last year

Paulus Sr >>> Peters team mgr. or Jordan Davidson 5th yr walk-on recovering from injury

In practice this year's team is better with Curry, but on the game court, only better as long as depth is not needed.

Of course the trade-off in front court is no Singler and no McClure for improved Lance, improved Zoubek, a hopefully much improved and bulkier Miles and two high potential frosh

Welcome2DaSlopes
09-13-2009, 02:36 PM
Are we forgetting Kelly at the SF position?

If we have Kyle there we should not forget to include Ryan.

ACCBBallFan
09-13-2009, 10:39 PM
Are we forgetting Kelly at the SF position?

If we have Kyle there we should not forget to include Ryan.This year realistically we are talking 5-10 MPG where Kyle is not at SF. Ryan is a possibility if he can defend or is paired with Lance. Lance is a defense only possibility. Olek is s a long shot and Andre can play there in 3 guard sets.

Ryan will probably get the bulk of his minutes at PF vying with Lance and Mason for PT there. This could depend somewhat on how many minutes Miles and Z can provide at 5 with Mason also playing some there.

All of this also depends on who the opponent has at the 3-4-5.

cwaugh
09-13-2009, 10:53 PM
Maybe because the backcourt now has a preseason 1st team all-american - Kyle Singler.

Last years backcourt may be better, but consider this:

Scheyer Sr. > Scheyer Jr.
Smith Jr. > Smith So.
Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr.
Dawkins Fr. = Williams Fr.

You can't really say Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr. because they are completely different players. Singler is a true wing player whereas Henderson is a shooting guard. Singler is bigger and a better three point shooter. Henderson is more athletic, better ball-handling, and better at driving. Plus Henderson could create better than Singler IMO.

DukeBlood
09-13-2009, 11:42 PM
Maybe because the backcourt now has a preseason 1st team all-american - Kyle Singler.

Last years backcourt may be better, but consider this:

Scheyer Sr. > Scheyer Jr.
Smith Jr. > Smith So.
Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr.
Dawkins Fr. = Williams Fr.

I agree with Scheyer and Smith being better then last year. I doubt if anyone would disagree with that. With that being said. How do you say Singler is better then Henderson, when we have yet to see Singler as a Jr.? Then the Dawkins/Williams thing is different. None of us have yet to see Dawkins in a NCAA game, so who can judge that? Obviously, I hope he is better and can contribute from Day one.

Lets say for debating sake that Singler is better then Henderson. WHO replaces Singler? I think it would be safe to say that whoever replaces Singler in the post wont be nearly as effective. Of course this thread is about the backcourt.

Until I see this years backcourt in action. I have to go with last year. With that being said.. I see huge things from Mr. Dawkins in the futuer, but probably not until So. or Jr. Years.

speedevil2001
09-14-2009, 02:06 AM
2008-2009
Greg Paulus - Sr.
Gerald Henderson - Jr.
Jon Scheyer - Jr.
Nolan Smith - So.
Elliot Williams - Fr.


2009-2010
Jon Scheyer - Sr.
Kyle Singler - Jr.
Nolan Smith - Jr.
Andre Dawkins - Fr.

how is singler part of the backcourt? singler is going to play the small forward position for duke, which is part of the front court.

dukestheheat
09-14-2009, 06:53 AM
Dawkins will be a large factor for Duke this year! (He has to be).

The only two consistent performers last year in the backcourt were Henderson and Scheyer; we lose a great player in Henderson and this will put a lot of pressure on the backcourt not only for defense but for scoring. Smith will have to step it up two notches and also add in Dawkins for instant offense. Duke desperately needs offensive production from these two guys this year, starting from the first game.

Scheyer will have his hands full at the PG spot, and will fill it with few turnovers and his plodding, methodical style. I just don't see Singler guarding a really quick guard and before the end of the year, we'll probably all be saying 'he's still playing the same position on the court this year as he was last year'. Even though he's listed as a backcourt player, I don't see him handling a speedy guard on defense; posting that same player up on offense in the blocks, yes...taking him down at halfcourt with the defensive stop, not so much.

dth.

NSDukeFan
09-14-2009, 08:18 AM
I agree with Scheyer and Smith being better then last year. I doubt if anyone would disagree with that. With that being said. How do you say Singler is better then Henderson, when we have yet to see Singler as a Jr.? Then the Dawkins/Williams thing is different. None of us have yet to see Dawkins in a NCAA game, so who can judge that? Obviously, I hope he is better and can contribute from Day one.

Lets say for debating sake that Singler is better then Henderson. WHO replaces Singler? I think it would be safe to say that whoever replaces Singler in the post wont be nearly as effective. Of course this thread is about the backcourt.

Until I see this years backcourt in action. I have to go with last year. With that being said.. I see huge things from Mr. Dawkins in the futuer, but probably not until So. or Jr. Years.

I agree with a lot of your post. If you agree that Smith and Scheyer will be better than last year's version of themselves, I would also expect you to figure Singler will be better as well. And Singler was pretty darn close to Henderson last year:

Player MPG FG% 3FG%FT% RPG APG BPG SPG PPG
G 29.7 .450 .336 .761 4.9 2.5 .8 1.2 16.5
Kyle 32.2 .441 .383 .713 7.7 2.4 1.0 1.5 16.5

Numbers-wise you could easily make the argument that Kyle had the better year. I find it funny that G outscored Kyle 610 to 609 over the season. Yes, G kicked it into another gear at the end of the year after a slow start while Kyle just played consistently well all year. I very much expect Kyle to have a better year this year than G did last year.

Kedsy
09-14-2009, 08:19 AM
how is singler part of the backcourt? singler is going to play the small forward position for duke, which is part of the front court.

Well, Henderson played "small forward" for us last year (if we played positions, which of course many insist we do not), so if you take Kyle out of the equation then you should take G out, too.

Having said that, I also have a bit of a problem with the semantic of saying we're "moving" a two-year starter from frontcourt to backcourt and thus our backcourt this year may be better (or worse).

I would look at it like:

wing players lost: Henderson, Paulus, Williams, Pocius.

wing players gained: Dawkins.

wing players returning and likely improved: Scheyer, Smith, Singler.

So, even if we assume that Dawkins=Williams -- which simplifies the analysis but is not capable of proof, or even intelligent discourse, until we see Dre play -- the question becomes whether the improvement of Jon, Nolan, and Kyle can make up for the loss of G, Greg, and Marty.

And the only way I see that is if Nolan can approach G's offensive presence and contributions, and if Kyle can guard the player G was guarding and can shoulder G's defensive contributions. Both of which are unlikely, but possible.

Greg's contribution last year was mostly in the way of energy and outside shooting off the bench, and I'm hoping Dre will provide that (while also approaching Elliot's defensive contributions). Marty was just depth. Whether or not you count Ryan Kelly as a wing player, he may also provide outside shooting off the bench.

Regarding whether Kyle (or Ryan) can guard a small, quick player (when our opponents are playing a lineup with three quick, athletic guards), I think this hazard will be minimized if our big men move their feet well enough to play good help defense and be shotblocking threats. I am hopeful that this will be true, especially with Mason, although again we haven't seen him play yet.

So once again, IMO the key seems to be Nolan. If defenses have to key on him to keep him from slashing to the basket, with all our other weapons Duke ought to be awfully good this year.

jv001
09-14-2009, 09:13 AM
2008-2009
Greg Paulus - Sr.
Gerald Henderson - Jr.
Jon Scheyer - Jr.
Nolan Smith - So.
Elliot Williams - Fr.


2009-2010
Jon Scheyer - Sr.
Kyle Singler - Jr.
Nolan Smith - Jr.
Andre Dawkins - Fr.

My take:
We will miss Greg's leadership and sometimes good outside shooting. We will not miss his defense. Gerald we will miss , but I can see Kyle taking over that role on offense. I don't know about on the ball defense. Our inside guys will have to cover up. Nolan I expect to be very much improved because he will be consistent. Elliot's defense will be missed, but not so much his offense. His shooting was not very good. Andre I don't know about. Will he be instant offense off the bench? Or will he see situational mins.I say somewhere in between. If he can provide good defense, then he will play more. Someone must guard the opposing point guard and stop penetration. That will probably be Nolan and Andre. I look for them to do a good job. I say this years back court will be better because Jon, Nolan and Kyle will be better. Go Duke!

mo.st.dukie
09-14-2009, 09:15 AM
You can't really say Singler Jr. > Henderson Jr. because they are completely different players. Singler is a true wing player whereas Henderson is a shooting guard. Singler is bigger and a better three point shooter. Henderson is more athletic, better ball-handling, and better at driving. Plus Henderson could create better than Singler IMO.

Think of it in terms of production (points, rebounds, assists, steals). Of course Singler isn't even close to the athlete Henderson is, he's not gonna give us those insane dunks and blocks, he may not even have as good of mid-range game as Henderson but he can put up better numbers than a junior Henderson did. And I don't think Henderson is a better ball handler or a better driver than Singler, rarely did you see G break his man down off the dribble.

Last year Kyle had the same ppg as Henderson (16.5), more rpg (7.7 > 4.9), similar apg (2.4 Kyle, 2.5 Henderson) and more steals per game (1.5). You would have to think all of those numbers for Kyle will go up at least slightly. Kyle is stepping into the same position as Henderson was last year, therefore if you are going to compare the two years you have to include Kyle in the backcourt (I don't understand why people are so reluctant to do so).

IF Jon is better than he was last year, Nolan better than last year, and Andre equal to or slightly better than Elliot, there is a very good argument this year's backcourt is better. When you factor in Kyle moving into G's position then depth isn't that big of an issue because we only have one less player in the backcourt than we did last year (Peters replaces what little minutes Marty had). Plus, we can plug in Kelly or Thomas for 5mpg at the 3.

quickgtp
09-14-2009, 09:29 AM
Elliot was a good player, but I think Andre will be more efficient on the offensive end since he is a much better pure shooter and has pretty similar athleticism. The question will be whether he can develop on D the way that E-Mail did.

I have a hard time believing that a Jr. Singler will be better than a Jr. Henderson. It's almost too tough to compare since G is far more athletic but Kyle is a better pure shooter and can get down into the post more.....

Kedsy
09-14-2009, 10:37 AM
Kyle is stepping into the same position as Henderson was last year, therefore if you are going to compare the two years you have to include Kyle in the backcourt (I don't understand why people are so reluctant to do so).

Well, if you all of a sudden count Kyle as part of the backcourt and compare his production to G's production, then the real question becomes how will this year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, MP2, RK) compare to last year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, and Kyle). And the answer seems to be it's very unlikely MP2 and Ryan will be able to compensate for the "loss" of Kyle.

Which is kind of a silly analysis, and this is why I think people are reluctant to talk about Kyle as a "new" member of the backcourt.

mo.st.dukie
09-14-2009, 11:28 AM
Well, if you all of a sudden count Kyle as part of the backcourt and compare his production to G's production, then the real question becomes how will this year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, MP2, RK) compare to last year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, and Kyle). And the answer seems to be it's very unlikely MP2 and Ryan will be able to compensate for the "loss" of Kyle.



That is 100% correct and is what I'm trying to get at is that the real questions continue to remain in the frontcourt. Duke has alot of experience and talent at the 1, 2, and 3 (although no true dynamic point guard) How many times has Kyle, in the last two years, truly played like a big man? Sometimes he would, especially rebounding, but he wasn't a true blue post player and offensively tended to play more on the perimeter anyways in order to exploit slower players (now it can be inverted and he can post up smaller guards).

So yes, the question is can somebody, doesn't have to be one of the freshmen, step in and provide the rebounding and some of the scoring that Kyle provided from that 4 spot? Hopefully we'll also get improved play from the 5.

sagegrouse
09-14-2009, 11:45 AM
Well, if you all of a sudden count Kyle as part of the backcourt and compare his production to G's production, then the real question becomes how will this year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, MP2, RK) compare to last year's frontcourt (Z, LT, MP1, and Kyle).

Not to complain about a thread (after all, even the plodding sagegrouse is brainy enough to duck a boring topic), but this whole discussion is besides the point.

The implicit question in the discussion and the real question for next year is, "Who among Zoubek, Thomas, MP1, MP2 and Kelly is (or are) going to step up and play at an All-ACC level?"

If someone does, then Duke is going to have a heckuva season. I have no doubts about Kyle and Jon and have high hopes for Nolan. Three stars among the best in college basketball will put Duke among the elite of the country.

sagegrouse

mo.st.dukie
09-14-2009, 11:56 AM
It doesn't necessarily mean that whoever plays at the 4 has to average the same as Kyle did last year. Let's say Lance and Miles start at the 4 and 5, Lance doesn't have to get 16ppg and 7rpg for Duke to be as good or better than last season. You have to factor in improvements in other areas such as the PG and C positions, defensive improvements which don't really show up in the stats, bench improvements, and team chemistry. If Lance only averages 6ppg and 5rpg but Miles is averaging 8ppg and 6rpg with Mason and Zoubs providing 5/5 then that is a equal to or better than last season. Also realize that Kyle, while playing the 3, can still do some post work by rebounding or posting up smaller guards.

airowe
09-14-2009, 06:42 PM
Obviously this year:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/238934-scheyer-smith-dawkins-duke-back-court-the-best-in-the-country

FireOgilvie
09-14-2009, 07:06 PM
Obviously this year:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/238934-scheyer-smith-dawkins-duke-back-court-the-best-in-the-country

Best backcourt in the country? I don't think so. There's no way anyone can say that at this point. I hate Bleacher Report.

I would say Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, KU, Kentucky, and California could be equal or better to Duke at the end of the year, among others.

airowe
09-14-2009, 08:11 PM
Best backcourt in the country? I don't think so. There's no way anyone can say that at this point. I hate Bleacher Report.

I would say Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, KU, Kentucky, and California could be equal or better to Duke at the end of the year, among others.

I knew I should have put this in there:

;)

DukeBlood
09-14-2009, 10:14 PM
I agree with a lot of your post. If you agree that Smith and Scheyer will be better than last year's version of themselves, I would also expect you to figure Singler will be better as well. And Singler was pretty darn close to Henderson last year:

Player MPG FG% 3FG%FT% RPG APG BPG SPG PPG
G 29.7 .450 .336 .761 4.9 2.5 .8 1.2 16.5
Kyle 32.2 .441 .383 .713 7.7 2.4 1.0 1.5 16.5

Numbers-wise you could easily make the argument that Kyle had the better year. I find it funny that G outscored Kyle 610 to 609 over the season. Yes, G kicked it into another gear at the end of the year after a slow start while Kyle just played consistently well all year. I very much expect Kyle to have a better year this year than G did last year.

Numbers don't tell the whole story, but most of it at least. I should of put why I believe Henderson is equal to or greater then Singler. For the simple reason of Singler changing positions. Sure, He will be able to shoot over most 2/3's in college. What if he isn't hitting? He wont be able to blow by the average 2 or 3. Back them down? Probably, but then he will be double-teamed in the post. Last year it was rare to see Kyle post someone up on the wing then back them down. He blew by a few players from out there.

Anyway, Im not saying he can't do this. I have a feeling he can and will be successful at the 3(or whatever position you which to call it). Just without us really seeing him there. Its only speculation. This is a message board so why should I point that out ;). Only time will tell.

ACCBBallFan
09-15-2009, 12:26 AM
Scheyer will have his hands full at the PG spot, and will fill it with few turnovers and his plodding, methodical style. I just don't see Singler guarding a really quick guard and before the end of the year, we'll probably all be saying 'he's still playing the same position on the court this year as he was last year'. Even though he's listed as a backcourt player, I don't see him handling a speedy guard on defense; posting that same player up on offense in the blocks, yes...taking him down at halfcourt with the defensive stop, not so much.

dth.Lots of guard migration from ACC no Lawson or Ellington, no Teague, no Douglas, no Rice, no McClinton, no Clinch, no Vassallo, no Rivers or Ogelsby, no Fells.

So Jon only has his hands full with Delaney and Vasquez, and vice versa, plus Ginyard will be a pest while Drew II pairs off with Nolan, Stitt, Ish Smith, then Jon has an experience edge over guys like Darwin Kitchen, Reggie Jackson, Sammy Zeglinski, Mo Miller, Lance Hurdle and Gonzales/Degand, or some new guys.

UrinalCake
09-15-2009, 06:35 AM
Within the context of "defending the other team's really fast point guard and preventing him from completely breaking down our defense," I would take this year's Smith and Dawkins over last year's Smith and Williams. But the main reasons I say this are because a.) Smith will (hopefully) be healthy for the whole year, and b.) Dawkins will (presumably) get more playing time off the bat. Last year there were times when we simply didn't have ANYBODY who we could put in to defend the other teams' PG.

Also maybe I'm crazy but I thought of G as being more of a forward. His strength was attacking the basket, not shooting from the outside, and he rarely took the ball up the court.

NSDukeFan
09-15-2009, 07:39 AM
Numbers don't tell the whole story, but most of it at least. I should of put why I believe Henderson is equal to or greater then Singler. For the simple reason of Singler changing positions. Sure, He will be able to shoot over most 2/3's in college. What if he isn't hitting? He wont be able to blow by the average 2 or 3. Back them down? Probably, but then he will be double-teamed in the post. Last year it was rare to see Kyle post someone up on the wing then back them down. He blew by a few players from out there.

Anyway, Im not saying he can't do this. I have a feeling he can and will be successful at the 3(or whatever position you which to call it). Just without us really seeing him there. Its only speculation. This is a message board so why should I point that out ;). Only time will tell.

I can see why you wondered about Kyle being as good at G at the wing position due to a position change. The other thing I would add to your point is that G was very good defending against wings last year. Offensively, I feel confident Kyle will have no trouble exceeding G's contributions from last year, though that is of course speculating until the year starts. My only concern, and this is where you are correct in that the numbers don't tell the whole story, is how Kyle will compare defending wing players compared to G last year. I think he will be fine, but unfortunately, Countdown to Craziness is still over a month away.

MChambers
09-15-2009, 08:58 AM
I can see why you wondered about Kyle being as good at G at the wing position due to a position change. The other thing I would add to your point is that G was very good defending against wings last year. Offensively, I feel confident Kyle will have no trouble exceeding G's contributions from last year, though that is of course speculating until the year starts. My only concern, and this is where you are correct in that the numbers don't tell the whole story, is how Kyle will compare defending wing players compared to G last year. I think he will be fine, but unfortunately, Countdown to Craziness is still over a month away.

Don't forget that with a bigger lineup Duke will have to figure out whether to switch as much on the perimeter. It's one thing to switch if that means that Kyle or Lance is on a guard and another if it's a bigger player.

ACCBBallFan
09-15-2009, 12:51 PM
Don't forget that with a bigger lineup Duke will have to figure out whether to switch as much on the perimeter. It's one thing to switch if that means that Kyle or Lance is on a guard and another if it's a bigger player.With the shortage of good 3 point returning scorers, I would expect Duke does not switch as much with Zoubek or Kelly. They may with the more athletic Plumlees and will with Lance and Kyle.

The height advantage may be enough to bother a shot even if the foot speed is not here.