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tux
02-26-2007, 03:24 PM
I, for one, am happy that Duke's playing MD next. The teams Duke struggles the most with are just like MD: long and athletic. Plus, Duke has had some lapses at home. But, Duke seems to be improving and are on a bit of a roll themselves, so this is a perfect game to see where the team stands. Will they struggle like they did in College Park, or will they take another step forward? (I don't think Duke has beaten MD since before that awful ACC tourney final. Is that right?)

CMS2478
02-26-2007, 03:27 PM
I agree I said it earlier today on the old message board that these two games coming up will be a great opportunity to see how much this young team is progressing. We are playing two teams that beat us the first time around and now we get a second crack at em'.

TheDuke11
02-26-2007, 03:50 PM
i think our biggest problem w/ myld is their size up front. that is what beat us last time imo. Well that and we were unable to match their intensity until around the 9 minute mark.

I'd like to see us come out of half time jacked up this game.

pratt '04
02-26-2007, 03:56 PM
(I don't think Duke has beaten MD since before that awful ACC tourney final. Is that right?)

We beat Maryland in both regular season games last year.

dukestheheat
02-26-2007, 09:15 PM
tux et. al.,

your posts bring up a good question about our maturity and indeed, i agree that these two games coming up will give us a great picture of how we've progressed.

we might struggle with maryland's athleticism that goes coast to coast; if we can slow their break and cut way down on the turnovers (which in college park led to fastbreak points for the twerps) we can keep it competitive, if we can't we will have a problem with them.

we'll see, GO DUKE!

dth.

dukelifer
02-26-2007, 09:55 PM
Yes- this game will tell a lot about the team. Maryland is hot and playing well. I do not expect Duke to get blown out early as in the last game. After that- the game was played fairly even. We shall see how this game plays out. It will likely be a hardly fought game.

SeattleIrish
02-26-2007, 10:00 PM
:D Coming off of that delightful win over UNC-CH, MD will bring a great deal of confidence. While I wouldn't be willing to be the house (although the market has cooled considerably in Vegas...hmmmm...) on a win, I'm as confident in a "W" as I've been this season.

Surprisingly, one of the reasons for the optimism is Lance Thomas' play of late; the man is BRINGING it! Love to see the style of chest-up defense he plays, despite the likelyhood of getting a foul called, and the energy he's bringing now. i think he's going to really help against the MD frontcourt and gives us athletic size that we don't get in McClure/Zoubek/Nelson.

Prediction: Duke 73 - MD 65

s.i.

KyDevilinIL
02-26-2007, 10:03 PM
I'll take 73-65 without hesitation.

I dunno what to think about MD. Whatever happens, this game probably will tell us more about our postseason prospects than any game so far.

Coach Carter
02-26-2007, 10:30 PM
Quick thoughts on the game:

1. Hopefully we show up for more than the first half. I'm getting tired of playing great for the entire first half - which gets me thinking that the team has turned the corner and is about to put it all together - and then sitting on the edge of my seat for the entire second half as we hope that our first half lead was big enough. Maryland poses a stern test, to be sure, as they've gotten some confidence and certainly cemented their name in the NCAA bracket. It won't be easy, and it shouldn't be if we expect our team to be able to compete in March (and hopefully April).

2. Revenge. Losing to Maryland is no fun, and we have to take care of our business at home. I know, I know, it's no "rivalry" but the first 10 minutes of the game in College Park left a foul taste in my mouth, and it's time to take care of that. We haven't lost since that debacle in Terptown, so I think it's time to show Maryland that we're a much different Duke team than a few weeks ago.

3. It's Senior night. Well we only have one senior, Joe Pagliuca, and he's played a grand total of 35 seconds this season. But he's been here all four years and given his effort in practices and he deserves nothing less than a full salute from Cameron on Wednesday night. And, as a senior this year, it will be my last game in Cameron, which is a sad, sad thing. I can't imagine what it will be like to follow Duke from my couch next season instead of from the old, broken wooden bleachers in Cameron. I'm going to miss that place. It will be an emotional night to be sure.

Let's go Duke

gep
02-26-2007, 10:57 PM
What's interesting about the last Maryland game is that Duke was down 20 points in the first half... and came back to within 6 points twice in the 2nd half. Since then, Duke has had the 20 point lead, only to see it shrink in the 2nd half. So, whatever has been happening to Duke lately, apparently may have also happened to Maryland... or conversely, what Duke did to Maryland in the 2nd half is what others have done to Duke lately. I think the good thing is that from that first Maryland game, we know this Duke team will not quit... and can play well in the 2nd half.

I thought that Joe was our lone senior... and the Maryland game will be senior night. I think the Cameron Crazies will give Joe a marvelous salute. Coach K always talks about the "team"... and Joe has been a valuable member... even if we don't see it, I'm sure the rest of the team does and appreciates Joe's dedication to Duke basketball. GO DUKE!!!

Chard
02-27-2007, 01:01 AM
Another factor is Duke should be healthy for this round. I expect a win for Duke.

JBDuke
02-27-2007, 03:08 AM
I'm a little nervous about this game. Yes, Duke has been playing better, but Maryland has been playing very well, too. Five wins in a row - all ACC contests, including us and Carolina and at Clemson - none easy wins. They're sky-high after beating the Heels (still like seeing that in print). They are playing with spirit and purpose. They have a bunch of athletic guards/wings that will challenge us, and their big guys have stepped it up of late.

I think that our keys will be keeping the turnovers down and winning the battle of the boards. We need to limit them to one shot per possession, or they'll chew us up inside. (They outrebounded a Carolina team much bigger than us by 13.) And if we keep the turnovers down, I think our superior perimeter shooting will really help - Greg's been just nasty from downtown lately (21-38 in the last 7 games).

gw67
02-27-2007, 07:40 AM
I agree with JBDuke. For Duke to win, the Devils need to play the Terps even on the boards, keep turnovers to a minimum, make three-pointers, make a decent percentage of their foul shots and continue to play tough defense. The Devils' advantages include better long range shooting, more depth and possibly some matchups - McRoberts, Scheyer and Henderson. If the Terps big men play well and their point guards are allowed to distribute (13.5 apg for past four games), then it will be a very close game.

It should be an enjoyable game to watch.

gw67

devildownunder
02-27-2007, 08:21 AM
i think our biggest problem w/ myld is their size up front. that is what beat us last time imo. Well that and we were unable to match their intensity until around the 9 minute mark.

I'd like to see us come out of half time jacked up this game.


Actually, I think one of the issues with this game will be calming them down -- from beginning to end. When things weren't going well for this group, maryland got 'em before a raucous crowd and did a number on them. Now, Duke is playing well, confidence is high and the game will be at CIS. I would be very surprised if they didn't come out so amped up for every minute of this one that K actually has to calm them down to get the best out of 'em.

They'll be pumped for this. I just hope they aren't TOO pumped. My bold prediction: Gerald Henderson has an eye-popping "did you just see THAT?" dunk in this one.

DukeDevilsBB
02-27-2007, 08:31 AM
MD will be a tough game. They are playing very well right now and they always seem to play us like we are their National Chamionship game. That being said I think we pull this one out, I have been very pleased with the way we have come out lately we just need to play that way for 40 minutes.

strawdawg39
02-27-2007, 08:54 AM
I think if Duke can prevent a lot of dribble penetration, allowing either short jumpers by the guards or a dish to the big-men down low, and Duke holds their own with rebounds, then they have an excellent chance of pulling out a win in this game.

grossbus
02-27-2007, 11:16 AM
"The teams Duke struggles the most with are just like MD"

the team that Duke struggles with most IS md.

Troublemaker
02-27-2007, 11:24 AM
I agree with everyone else. Honestly, I think Maryland is the better team this year. Playing at home, I do give us the better chance to win, something like 55/45 or 60/40, but it's going to basically be a tossup game. Their entire backcourt is tall and athletic which should give our shooters problems, and their froncourt scores better than ours. I think we'll be fine on the boards but how are we going to score? That's what worries the most.

grossbus
02-27-2007, 01:03 PM
"but how are we going to score?"

this year's unending question.

Chard
02-27-2007, 01:19 PM
Does the new wrinkle in the offense tip the scales in Duke's favor? I don't think Duke ran the weave at MD.

Troublemaker
02-27-2007, 01:22 PM
"but how are we going to score?"

this year's unending question.

Word. It's especially tough against Maryland because Greg, our best shooter, is going to have a 6'5" athletic guy in his face, whether it be Strawberry, Vasquez, or Jones. Penetration won't be so easy for Markie, either. And Jon has to deal with what Greg deals with as well. We won't know what we're going to get with Josh, as always. This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives. They're probably a year away, though.

Clipsfan
02-27-2007, 01:34 PM
Word. It's especially tough against Maryland because Greg, our best shooter, is going to have a 6'5" athletic guy in his face, whether it be Strawberry, Vasquez, or Jones. Penetration won't be so easy for Markie, either. And Jon has to deal with what Greg deals with as well. We won't know what we're going to get with Josh, as always. This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives. They're probably a year away, though.

I don't know whether having a taller guy guarding Greg makes as much of a difference as you'd think. Greg tends to take his shots in the flow of the game, not when someone is closely guarding him. He takes them in transition, or when he's not closely guarded after a screen or a lazy moment by his defender. If he was the sort to try to get the shot off by dribbling and stepping back etc, then it would be a bigger issue. That said, I think the question for every game we play is going to be: Where do the points come from?

Troublemaker
02-27-2007, 01:40 PM
I don't know whether having a taller guy guarding Greg makes as much of a difference as you'd think. Greg tends to take his shots in the flow of the game, not when someone is closely guarding him. He takes them in transition, or when he's not closely guarded after a screen or a lazy moment by his defender. If he was the sort to try to get the shot off by dribbling and stepping back etc, then it would be a bigger issue. That said, I think the question for every game we play is going to be: Where do the points come from?

Good point. It's still a factor because taller, more athletic players can recover better to challenge shots after being screened. There's a psychological impact as well. When a shooter knows he can get his shot blocked, there's a tendency to rush shots or arc it higher than normal, which leads to misses.

smklin
02-27-2007, 01:46 PM
"This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives"

i totally agree on that point troublemaker, but i just keep on seeing those two being hesitant with their shots and when they do go up with it, they're not confident. It was nice to see lance two games ago take it into two defenders, draw the foul, and finish as he falls to the floor. really showed why he was such a big recruit. as far as the taller defenders issue goes, i tend to agree with clipsfan. paulus has been taking open 3's. when he does create off the dribble, he almost always ends it with a floater from the middle of the lane. my prediction is that this is going to be a breakout game for demarcus.

smklin
02-27-2007, 01:49 PM
Does the new wrinkle in the offense tip the scales in Duke's favor? I don't think Duke ran the weave at MD.
i think the new weave is a great addition for this part of the season. we were struggling so much with late-game stagnation, and this has done a lot to alleviate that. it just creates a lot of motion and opportunities for the open jumper or for a pick and roll for josh.

heyman25
02-27-2007, 03:44 PM
We need some 12 to 15 ft shot attempts. Both Scheyer and Henderson are quite good at this. It would be great to shoot well from 3 pt land,but I think we can score on Maryland by dribble penetration. Josh's line drive shots are going to miss more than going in. I think our defense will be good though Maryland will pound it into the paint. If we block out well and limit our turnovers I think we stand a good chance of a home win.

riverside6
02-27-2007, 09:44 PM
Well, for at least the 3rd time this season (that I can remember), Duke goes into this matchup with the Efficiency Predicted Score (http://www.scacchoops.com/forms/Game_Preview_External.asp?hSchedule=776) being a tie. The other two were Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at the beginning of the season.

I just don't know what to expect in this matchup, but I have to believe that how Paulus plays, both shooting the ball and handling the MD defensive pressure is the key.

Go Duke!

mus074
02-28-2007, 11:52 AM
Rebounding will be the biggest factor this game. Maryland's success has been unusually highly correlated to rebounding, and they are actually pretty bad it on a season average basis. If Duke outhustles Maryland for rebounds, we have our best shot of winning.

mus074
02-28-2007, 11:54 AM
I think Gary will have watched some tape of this, though. I expect Maryland to be the best prepared for our weave of all teams yet.

DankeShane
02-28-2007, 12:01 PM
I just hope we really come out amped up for this game. I know it's probably a cliche and can sometimes backfire if emotions get to high, but my impression of our games with Maryland over the past 3 years or so is that we come out a little too "cool, calm, and collected" whereas MD looks like they've been strapped into restraint chairs Clockwork Orange-style, and have just been forced to watch 6 hours worth of doctored footage of Duke players killing puppies and assaulting grandmas.

I know that as fans we like to rib MD for not being one of our rivals, but the players really need to treat it as such in order to match the fevered intensity Gary has brainwashed into them vs. us.

mus074
02-28-2007, 12:30 PM
I just hope we really come out amped up for this game. I know it's probably a cliche and can sometimes backfire if emotions get to high, but my impression of our games with Maryland over the past 3 years or so is that we come out a little too "cool, calm, and collected" whereas MD looks like they've been strapped into restraint chairs Clockwork Orange-style, and have just been forced to watch 6 hours worth of doctored footage of Duke players killing puppies and assaulting grandmas.

I know that as fans we like to rib MD for not being one of our rivals, but the players really need to treat it as such in order to match the fevered intensity Gary has brainwashed into them vs. us.

Last year they came to our place and folded like a cheap, sweaty suit. We won 76-52 and it wasn't even that close.

Pomeroy gives us 5 points, Vegas gives us 6 and at Tradesports people are (a) buying Duke minus 5.5 contracts for 51 and (b) buying Duke straight up for 70.5. The money really likes us here.

Duke15304
02-28-2007, 02:10 PM
they are tough matchup and they are playing real well, but so are we, its a rivarly game, its at cameron, i think its a game we can win

jacone21
02-28-2007, 03:11 PM
I think Gary will have watched some tape of this, though. I expect Maryland to be the best prepared for our weave of all teams yet.

Agreed. This may also be the first game of his career in which Greg is going to be guarded as an outside threat. That last game has really called attention to his red-hot shooting from outside the arc. I bet Gary has talked about shutting Greg down, and he's probably the first coach to do it this year. I don't expect too many of those wide open looks for Greg in this game. If GP can recognize that and maybe use a little pump fake from time to time, he might be able to create some breakdowns with penetration. It would be really nice if Jon can pick up the 3PT slack.

gw67
02-28-2007, 03:25 PM
The Terps have the best three-point defense in the ACC (30.1%). For the last 2-3 years, they have been terrible and this has been a point of emphasis. Vasquez and Hayes are tall, have long arms and have begun to play decent defense. Having said that, ND and UVA shot lights out from behind the arc for portions of their games.

gw67

mus074
02-28-2007, 03:27 PM
Agreed. This may also be the first game of his career in which Greg is going to be guarded as an outside threat. That last game has really called attention to his red-hot shooting from outside the arc. I bet Gary has talked about shutting Greg down, and he's probably the first coach to do it this year. I don't expect too many of those wide open looks for Greg in this game. If GP can recognize that and maybe use a little pump fake from time to time, he might be able to create some breakdowns with penetration. It would be really nice if Jon can pick up the 3PT slack.

If his man comes out to guard him and we try the weave, we should get better interior looks of Nelson, Henderson, Thomas and McRoberts breaking to the ball. As good as we are when GP gets open looks, we look even better when we get interior passing lanes. That makes our offense click, because it creates spacing and flow with the other players. Relying on outside shooting can be streaky and is difficult to reignite once momentum is lost. Interior passing gets everyone moving without the ball, generates fouls and keeps the momentum in more players. Balance can be our great strength, which is a huge improvement from recent years.

mus074
02-28-2007, 03:38 PM
The Terps have the best three-point defense in the ACC (30.1%). For the last 2-3 years, they have been terrible and this has been a point of emphasis. Vasquez and Hayes are tall, have long arms and have begun to play decent defense. Having said that, ND and UVA shot lights out from behind the arc for portions of their games.

gw67

Maryland's defense allows only 29.2% 3pt shooting on the year, which is 3rd in the nation. They also allow very few attempts as a ratio of FGAs. However, the offenses they have played rank SOS of 43rd, so they're not necessarily world beaters. For a point of reference our D allows only 29.8% 3pt shooting (8th) against the no. 2 offensive SOS.

Maryland's offense and defense are both highly correlated with rebounding. If they want to come out and guard GP and JS at the arc, let em. We need to scoop up the boards to win this game.

jacone21
02-28-2007, 03:55 PM
Just had a look at the ESPN schedule tonight. Looks like Nova at UConn is the 7:00 game. Don't expect to see the first few minutes of the Duke game. The last few 9:00 games on ESPN have picked up at about the 18 minute mark. Let's hope that's as bad as it gets tonight. But don't worry, they'll be sure to give you a Program Alert on the Bottom Line presented by Outback Steakhouse. And if the first game goes to OT, you can at least look for the 30 at 30 update. :p

dukestheheat
02-28-2007, 06:18 PM
again, we become much more competitive versus MD if we control our turnovers and also keep them from running; they are athletic, slash, and those types of teams last couple years have given duke trouble.

i see duke controlling the to's and holding the game to a lower score.

GO DUKE!

dth.