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Udaman
03-02-2007, 09:07 AM
Bubble Update. Teams that helped themselves this week – Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Purdue, Stanford, Texas Tech, Alabama. Though none of them are locks yet.

Teams that hurt themselves – Michigan State, Kansas State, USC, Georgia.

The conference tournaments start in earnest today, and the CAA and Missouri Valley should be awesome with four teams in each fighting for 1-2 spots.

Here’s where we stand: With 65 spots to fill, there look to be 16 conferences that will only get one bid. They are:

America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Ivy, Metro Athletic, Mid American, Mid-Continent, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Southwestern, Sunbelt.

That leaves 49 open spaces. Here are the current locks:

ACC (6): (UNC, Boston College, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia)
Atlantic 10 (1): Conference Champion – Xavier?
Big East (7): (Pittsburgh, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten (3): (Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio State)
Big 12 (3): (Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas)
Colonial Athletic (1): Conf Champion (VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel, Hofstra)
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon League (1): Butler??
Missouri Valley (1): Southern Illinois
Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, Oregon
SEC (4): Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southern (1): Davidson or Appalachian State
West Coast (1): Conference Champion – Gonzaga?
WAC (1): Nevada

That is 38 more spots, that leaves 11 spaces left. By my count on the bubble you have:

ACC (3) – Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Big Ten (4) - Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State
Big 12 (3) : Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Colonial Athletic (1): Either VCU, Old Dominion, Drexel, Hofstra
Miss Valley (2): Missouri State, Creighton
Pac 10 (2): Stanford, USC
SEC (1) : Alabama
Southern (1): Davidson or Appalachian State

That is 17 spaces. So 6 of them won’t get in. I think right now the following teams would not be in: Clemson, Florida State, Purdue, Michigan, Kansas State and Missouri State. But – Appalachian State and Davidson must make their conference finals (both play semi’s today). Also, Stanford and USC would be in today, but Stanford needs to win at Arizona…and I’m telling you, USC could be in trouble. They play at Washington State next, which they will likely lose. If that happens, then their first round game in the Pac-10 will be against either Arizona, Stanford or Washington. Lose that….and this team really doesn’t deserve a bid, especially over someone like Georgia Tech or Florida State.

Also, if teams like Butler, Nevada, Memphis and Xavier lose in their tourneys, the bubble gets smaller.

Final note about Winthrop. They got a good news / bad news situation last night. With VMI beating Highpoint – it is now very likely Winthrop will beat them in the championship game Saturday night (it is at Winthrop). But…if they lose…they are done. VMI’s RPI is 310. If they lose at home to the 310th ranked team….it would drop their RPI to about 90, and they would be out. Then again, they should win and win easily.

Also, about Lunardi’s Braketology. It is nice and all, but fatally flawed, in that it lists the tournament as of a set day. But it fails to take into account what is about to happen. For instance, right now he has three teams in from the Colonial – VCU, Old Dominion and Drexel. But all are really low seeds, and given the quarterfinals, at least one of these teams (if not more) will lose before making the conference finals, and then they will be out. So there it is highly unlikely that 3 teams will get in.

Dar95
03-02-2007, 11:46 AM
I think you're oversimplifying to say that if one of the CAA teams loses in the semi-finals, they would be out. All 3 teams under consideration (VCU, ODU, Drexel) would certainly still be in the running if they lost a semi-final game (assuming it was to one of the other top 4 teams, it would not be a particularly "bad" loss). I think ODU in particular has a pretty strong profile as it relates to the other bubble teams.

Also, one does not have to look far back to find a CAA team that didn't make the final but made the tourney - George Mason, last year.