NBA statistics, they're fake-tastic!

[JasonEvans]

Not sure if everyone has seen or heard about this article (http://deadspin.com/5345287/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper?skyline=true&s=x). It is about a former NBA scorekeeper who admits that he often fudged statistics, giving extra assists, blocks, and rebounds (the most subjective stats) to players he liked and especially to players on the home team.


With Nick Van Exel and the Lakers in town, Alex decided to act out. "I was sort of disgruntled," he says. "I loved the game. I don't want the numbers to be meaningless, and I felt they were becoming meaningless because of how stats were kept. So I decided, I'm gonna do this totally immature thing and see what happens. It was childish. The Lakers are in town. We're gonna lose. @#%@# it. He's getting a #%load of assists."

If you were to watch the game today, you'd see some "comically bad assists." Alex's fingerprints are all over the box score. He gave Van Exel everything. "Van Exel would pass from the top of the three-point line to someone on the wing who'd hold the ball for five seconds, dribble, then make a move to the basket. Assist, Van Exel."

No one noticed. From his chair, Alex could hear the legendary broadcaster Chick Hearn calling the game, "Van Exel's having a great game! He's moving the ball exceptionally well!" And in the next day's writeups, Van Exel was of course the hero. Alex thought, What the @#^*?

--Jason "this story needs to get more attention" Evans

[airowe]

Not sure if everyone has seen or heard about this article (http://deadspin.com/5345287/the-confessions-of-an-nba-scorekeeper?skyline=true&s=x). It is about a former NBA scorekeeper who admits that he often fudged statistics, giving extra assists, blocks, and rebounds (the most subjective stats) to players he liked and especially to players on the home team.



--Jason "this story needs to get more attention" Evans

Wow, thanks for posting. It's ridiculous that noone caught this happening. Ever. Fantasy guys would be irate over this...

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

This is banannas

[SilkyJ]

--Jason "this story needs to get more attention" Evans

WOW. You are right. I cant believe I hadn't heard about this til now. I would imagine the only way to solve this is to have a 4th referee basically as the stat keeper. Maybe he doesn't have to be a 4th ref, but at least be an employee and certified official of the NBA.

Of course that would raise their OpEx so they probably won't do that until this story gets more notoriety and Stern decides the tarnish is worse than the extra salaries.

[JasonEvans]

WOW. You are right. I cant believe I hadn't heard about this til now. I would imagine the only way to solve this is to have a 4th referee basically as the stat keeper. Maybe he doesn't have to be a 4th ref, but at least be an employee and certified official of the NBA.

Of course that would raise their OpEx so they probably won't do that until this story gets more notoriety and Stern decides the tarnish is worse than the extra salaries.

As the article indicates, it is not in the NBA's interest to crack down on this. Padded stats are good for the marketability of the game.

If I was into fantasy basketball, I would certainly weight home games a lot when moving guys onto and off of my active roster for a given week. It sounds like "home cooking" can impact a stat like assists by as much as 20%.

--Jason "ESPN needs to pick up on this" Evans

[JimBD]

I rarely watch NBA games unless a former Duke player is involved. Other than playoffs, it seems like I am watching an exhibition game rather than a real game. Keep in mind that statistics are also inflated because of so many non-calls--traveling, carrying the ball, double dribble, charging--to name a few. If I want to watch a real game, I watch college basketball.

[Brian913]

This stuff happens in college basketball too.

Scorers in baseball are notorious for changing errors to hits and hits to errors to favor the home team's stats.

[A-Tex Devil]

As the article indicates, it is not in the NBA's interest to crack down on this. Padded stats are good for the marketability of the game.

If I was into fantasy basketball, I would certainly weight home games a lot when moving guys onto and off of my active roster for a given week. It sounds like "home cooking" can impact a stat like assists by as much as 20%.

--Jason "ESPN needs to pick up on this" Evans

Hell, what about Vegas prop bets? Scorer X in LA has the under on Steve Nash at o/u 10 assists. Well that LAST play, I think Amare hesitated a bit too long to make that really an assist.

[brevity]

Hell, what about Vegas prop bets? Scorer X in LA has the under on Steve Nash at o/u 10 assists. Well that LAST play, I think Amare hesitated a bit too long to make that really an assist.

Oh come on! It's ridiculous to say that the scorekeeper is thinking about Vegas when counting stats. That's the referee's job.

Doesn't the Elias Sports Bureau get involved with stuff like this? Verifying stats or whatever?

[theman5207]

Oh come on! It's ridiculous to say that the scorekeeper is thinking about Vegas when counting stats. That's the referee's job.


Really nice work.

[darthur]

I always figured this happened at all levels, including college. You guys don't think so?

I'd heard something about overly subjective bookkeeping some time ago, but I forget the context unfortunately.

Edit: Looks like Brian913 beat me to it.

[sagegrouse]

I'd heard something about overly subjective bookkeeping some time ago, but I forget the context unfortunately.


Darthur:

Perhaps you were thinking of Enron?

sagegrouse

[JasonEvans]

I always figured this happened at all levels, including college. You guys don't think so?

I figure there is a tiny bit of padding by home scorers, but nothing close to the situation talked about in the linked article. I figured maybe home scoring could account for one extra assist and one extra rebound for a team in a game. But the article talks about 10-20% increases in many cases and ridiculous stuff like giving Nick Van Exel 23 assists in a game where he maybe deserved 10.

--Jason "the story of the Olajuwon triple-double is also very distressing" Evans

[JaMarcus Russell]

Thanks for the article. I wonder if it will get any coverage from ESPN or the rest of the mainstream press. Somehow I doubt it.

[77devil]

Darthur:

Perhaps you were thinking of Enron?

sagegrouse

That wasn't subjective bookkeeping. That was fraud.

[UrinalCake]

This brings up an interesting question in my mind. How does one become an "official scorekeeper"? Is the process similar to becoming a referee? Is there a performance review process, as there is for referees? It sounds like they're each affiliated with a particular team; does that make any sense? Also, how exactly are rebounds subjective? The only thing I can think of is calling something a team rebound versus an individual rebound.

[bdh21]

Basketball Prospectus actually looked at this issue (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14) in College Bball a few years ago.

They focused on just the most generous scorekeepers at a few schools, but there are some juicy nuggets about Texas A&M's generous scorekeepers:


"At home, Texas A&M was one of the best assisting teams in college basketball history. Away from home, they were the worst major conference team in sharing the ball."

"Texas took the unusual step of voiding assists that were credited to its own team in a game at Texas A&M. (Note: under NCAA rules this a step that doesn't affect the official statistics, only Texas' internal records.)"

"Applying this reduction equally to each A&M player would reduce Acie Law's assist total from 169 to 124, or from 5.0 per game, ranking 63rd in the nation, to 3.6 and out of the top 200."

And finally the big picture...


"The average NCAA scorekeeper gives the home team five more assists per 100 made field goals than he/she gives the opponent."

"There is no statistic in major sports as subjective as the basketball assist, and we should consider that before reading too much into a player's or team's assist rate."

[bdh21]

Also, the NBA does occasionally make a effort to correct a zealous scorekeeper. Remember last season when a bogus rebound that gave LeBron a triple-double with 30 seconds left was rescinded (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3889674)?

[bdh21]

Also, a super-quick analysis shows that during Shelden's senior season he recorded 3.4 blocks per road ACC game and 5.1 blocks per home ACC game. Maybe some of the discrepancy is legitimately blocking more shots at home, but I'm sure that not all of it is. Folks, our hands aren't completely squeaky-clean.

[LetItBD08]

Also, a super-quick analysis shows that during Shelden's senior season he recorded 3.4 blocks per road ACC game and 5.1 blocks per home ACC game. Maybe some of the discrepancy is legitimately blocking more shots at home, but I'm sure that not all of it is. Folks, our hands aren't completely squeaky-clean.

To be fair...this is a rather small sample size (8 and 8). One game I remember fondly was his triple-double against Maryland in Cameron. The 10 blocks did not seem like an embellishment. If memory serves me correctly, there were a couple of Maryland possessions where Williams picked up multiple blocks in 15 second spans. He also had 8 blocks against a shell-shocked UVA team (thanks to Redick's rather efficient 40 points).

http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketball-m/players/logs.php?playerid=376&season=2005-06

[A-Tex Devil]

Basketball Prospectus actually looked at this issue (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14) in College Bball a few years ago.

They focused on just the most generous scorekeepers at a few schools, but there are some juicy nuggets about Texas A&M's generous scorekeepers:



And finally the big picture...

I'm shocked - SHOCKED, I tell you - that Aggies would have such a poor understanding of how to score games. Maybe Jackie Sherrill was their scorekeeper.

[superdave]

When I was in high school, this was a common discussion about our football team. We had a coach's son who was a pretty big D-1 prospect at the LB position. He averaged about 15 tackles a game and a handful every game seemed to be where he arrived after the offensive player had already been taken down by another defender. Some of the other guys on the team werent very happy about the special treatment.

I always enjoy hearing stories about pitchers and fielders arguing over whether a play should be a hit or an error because of ERA implications. Here's an article about Roger Clemens (towards the bottom) that foreshadows poor sportsmanship to come.

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2009/07/27/10473/meet_the_guys_who_hold_major_league_baseballs_most _thankless_job_other_than_the_umpires

[JasonEvans]

Also, how exactly are rebounds subjective? The only thing I can think of is calling something a team rebound versus an individual rebound.

Well, if a ball is batted around a bit and eventually goes to a guard, a scorekeeper who wanted to boost the stats of a big man in the game could rule that said big man had tipped the ball to the guard and give the rebound to the big fella.

If you read the linked article at the beginning of all this, it talks a little bit about rebound padding.

--Jason "assists are clearly the biggest place where one could skew stats" Evans

[SmartDevil]

Statistics and scorekeeping are only two dimensions of the NBA being "fake."

Fake effort for at least 3 quarters of many regular season games is one of the ones that bothers me most.

Heck, now that I think of it, why aren't all comments related to the NBA (and which don't involve Duke players) relegated to a different area of DBR?

[bdh21]

Statistics and scorekeeping are only two dimensions of the NBA being "fake."

Fake effort for at least 3 quarters of many regular season games is one of the ones that bothers me most.

Heck, now that I think of it, why aren't all comments related to the NBA (and which don't involve Duke players) relegated to a different area of DBR?

Read through this 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/random11.htm) analysis if you'd like, but the key point there is...


"So the oft spouted concept that NBA games are just back and forth and it all comes down to the last few minutes when the superior teams exert their will is demonstrably false: the good teams get the lead early and hold on."

That reminds me of something I remember Doug Colllins saying: "the biggest myth about the NBA is that it's a 4th quarter league. It's actually a 1st quarter league"