Will next season have a Kevin Durant?

[SupaDave]

Well I've been hearing rave reviews about Kevin Durant and it got me to thinking about his freshmen year and just how bananas he was. That led me to wondering if anyone has that potential this year.

There's always John Wall of course but I'm wondering if I'm discounting any of this year's recruits.

The whispers about MP2 have been getting so loud I'm starting to wonder if we might have one on our very own team.

Any thoughts?

[BlueintheFace]

I'd be shocked... SHOCKED. There are positive whispers SupaDave, but there are also a few scattered negative whispers too. He'll be good, but not Wooden Award candidate good. He won't even be the man on his own team ( Hello Kyle and Jon).

Wall, Favors, and Bradley seem to be the freshman threats to be top dog.

[Wander]

Durant won national player of the year. Let's start with just hoping that Plumlee establishes himself as one of our three or four best players before we start throwing around the possibility of him being the best player in the country.

Wall probably has the best shot, considering what Calipari did with Rose, Meeks staying in the NBA draft, and Kentucky looking like a top five team. Favors could get consideration like Beasley did for putting up huge numbers on a mediocre team. That's probably it, though.

[Cameron]

What have they been whispering about Mason that would make you believe NPOTY?

I'm not trying to be a jerk, either. I would like to know.

A player like Kevin Durant comes around once, maybe twice, a generation. That's it. And, since we've already had Carmelo Anthony, it's very doubtful it will happen again this season.

Honestly, I merely hope Mason finds his way into the lineup and produces well enough to improve our inside game. That'd be fine with me.

[roywhite]

Durant won national player of the year. Let's start with just hoping that Plumlee establishes himself as one of our three or four best players before we start throwing around the possibility of him being the best player in the country.

Wall probably has the best shot, considering what Calipari did with Rose, Meeks staying in the NBA draft, and Kentucky looking like a top five team. Favors could get consideration like Beasley did for putting up huge numbers on a mediocre team. That's probably it, though.

I have high hopes for Mason Plumlee to be an outstanding player, and he may be very good this season. I don't see him as anywhere near the scorer that Durant was, but he may contribute in other phases of the game, such as passing and blocking some shots.

Even if Mason doesn't have huge numbers, he'll be a key piece.

[FireOgilvie]

Wall and Favors are the only ones even capable of that, but I really doubt either one will be NPOY. I doubt Mason averages double digits. McRoberts averaged 8.7 pts, 5.3 rebs his freshman year. I'm guessing Mason won't do much better than that.

[SupaDave]

What about Lance Stephenson? Thoughts?

[COYS]

McRoberts averaged 8.7 pts, 5.3 rebs his freshman year. I'm guessing Mason won't do much better than that.

I would even say that McRoberts had more opportunities for points than Mason if only because McRoberts faced no real competition for his starting spot and not much equivalent talent off the bench . . . and he was looked at as the third option on offense. Mason will be at best the fourth option on offense behind the three S's. He also will be in competition with far more players for playing time. I'm not saying that he doesn't have the talent to match McRobert's numbers as a frosh. However, if he does match those numbers, I think we will be very excited about his contributions. If Thomas and Zoubek combine for somewhere between 8 and 10 ppg, and Mason adds almost 9 on his own, that will go a very long way to replacing Henderson's production. Add in an increase to the ppg totals from our big three (with Nolan presumably having a rather significant increase) and we would be in wonderful shape if Mason is able to match those numbers.

[RainingThrees]

I was lucky enough to see the Texas vs Oklahoma St. game on tv that went into, I think, triple OT and I doubt there will be anyone like Kevin Durrant this year. Speaking of that game does anyone know what happened to Mario Boggans? That guy matched Durrants performance that game and then seemed to disappear following that season.

[Wander]

I have high hopes for Mason Plumlee to be an outstanding player, and he may be very good this season. I don't see him as anywhere near the scorer that Durant was, but he may contribute in other phases of the game, such as passing and blocking some shots.

Even if Mason doesn't have huge numbers, he'll be a key piece.

I agree. I think he should start from day one through the last game of the season. Still, the suggested comparison to Durant is no better or useful than comparing Paulus to Hurley, Scheyer to Redick, etc.


What about Lance Stephenson? Thoughts?

I'd guess not. If he was that good, there would have been more schools willing to take a chance on him, regardless of the baggage.


A player like Kevin Durant comes around once, maybe twice, a generation. That's it. And, since we've already had Carmelo Anthony, it's very doubtful it will happen again this season.

Well, once or twice a generation before the NBA draft rule. More often now, probably. Still, I think only Wall has a reasonable shot, with an outside chance to Favors.

[superdave]

Carmelo had about 30 points or so in his first collegiate game. But he never got the hype that Durant got until the NCAAs. Durant is sort of a once in a generation player - maybe the best scorer to enter the NBA since Jordan. I doubt anyone would be suprised if he averaged 35 a game in the next year or two without taking 35 shots to do so like Kobe.

So no, no new Durant!

But Wall could be the next Derrick Rose, leading his team to the title game by averaging 15 and 8. (and losing narrowly to Duke...)

Who would Favors compare to? Chris Bosh? Or maybe Kevin Love. I could see him having some big games, but it's harder for a freshman big man because you dont have the ball in your hands as much.

[Memphis Devil]

Let me start by saying that I am not a glass half full kind of guy when it comes to Duke basketball....my glass is overflowing. However, MP2 won't have what it takes to have a Kevin Durant type of season and by that I mean 15 plus shot attempts per game. While he may not have the polished outside shot that Durant came into college with, his inside game is certainly more impressive. While MP2 will not be the focal point of the Duke attack I wouldn't quite say that he is going to be the 4th option. I would say that his role will be more a 3b. As I have stated in other threads, I am very excited about what MP2 brings to the table. I think the athleticism and agility he posseses for a guy his size is something that we haven't had at Duke (with the exception of McBob) since I've been a fan (late '80's). I feel quite confident that by the end of the season MP2 will be matching if not surpassing what McBob averaged as a Frosh.

Anyhow, back to the topic at hand. I do think that Lance Stephenson has the 'potential' to have a Durant type of year simply because the right mix of ingredients will be in place. He is a very gifted scorer and will easily be the best scorer on his team which means that he will probably dominate on the offensive end in terms of shot attempts. I do also think that his baggage will keep him from winning NPOY unless he just goes nuts all season long.

[Bob Green]

I think the athleticism and agility he posseses for a guy his size is something that we haven't had at Duke (with the exception of McBob) since I've been a fan (late '80's).

Christian Laettner?

[SupaDave]

Christian Laettner?

Naw, CL wasn't doing the kind of dunks MP2 is capable of for sure...

[slower]

I do also think that his baggage will keep him from winning NPOY unless he just goes nuts all season long.

My understanding is that he is already slightly nuts - so you may be right!

[jimsumner]

"I would even say that McRoberts had more opportunities for points than Mason if only because McRoberts faced no real competition for his starting spot and not much equivalent talent off the bench . "

McRoberts was a freshman on a team with two senior All-Americas who combined for over 45 points per game. I rather suspect Duke will have a more balanced offense this season than was the case in 2006. I think 10-12 ppg for Plumlee is realistic.

As for the broader question, Durant may well have been one of a kind.

[Newton_14]

I am going to go out on a limb in answering Supa's question and state I think it is possible Wall ends up with a Durant type year...

The kid is a freak and a very unique talent. If he gets any kind of jumper at all to compliment the rest of his game he will be hard to deal with. I am no expert but I have been watching this game a long time and the John Wall's are few and far between. To me he is better than Rose at the same stage. Do I expect him to be the National Player of the year? In a word, No, but I do think he will be in the conversation...

As for our Mason, I was skeptical early on, but with the whispers rising, I am starting to believe he could be a 11 or 12 ppg type player, it's just that with big men it is so hard to be good early. But I hope that at the end of the year we are trying to get over the shock of how good he ended up being.....Or better yet, the shock of how good all 3 of our freshman ended up being....

[SupaDave]

As for the broader question, Durant may well have been one of a kind.

Not necessarily true though. I can remember Dajuan Wagner and Chris Jackson (Mahmoud Abdul-Raouf) each having similarly spectacular rookie, errr freshmen seasons. Although they were guards with the ball in their hands who put up points in bunches.

Wagner went pro after one year as well. Jackson got to play with Shaq.

THE Chris Jackson...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIGwqQFaP_s&feature=related

[FireOgilvie]

Beasley had roughly the same type of freshman year as Durant. In fact, his was statistically better. Hansbrough won NPOY, though.

Beasley - 26.2 pts, 12.4 reb, 1.6 blocks, 53.2% fg, 37.9% 3 pt

2nd round NCAA Tournament

vs.

Durant - 25.8 pts, 11.1 reb, 1.9 blocks, 47.3% fg, 40.4% 3 pt

2nd round NCAA Tournament

Pretty amazing seasons for anyone, not just freshmen.

[NSDukeFan]

Not necessarily true though. I can remember Dajuan Wagner and Chris Jackson (Mahmoud Abdul-Raouf) each having similarly spectacular rookie, errr freshmen seasons. Although they were guards with the ball in their hands who put up points in bunches.

Wagner went pro after one year as well. Jackson got to play with Shaq.

THE Chris Jackson...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIGwqQFaP_s&feature=related

of how good he was for a couple of years at LSU.

[NSDukeFan]

"I would even say that McRoberts had more opportunities for points than Mason if only because McRoberts faced no real competition for his starting spot and not much equivalent talent off the bench . "

McRoberts was a freshman on a team with two senior All-Americas who combined for over 45 points per game. I rather suspect Duke will have a more balanced offense this season than was the case in 2006. I think 10-12 ppg for Plumlee is realistic.

As for the broader question, Durant may well have been one of a kind.

I would be pleasantly surprised to see Mason average 10-12 ppg this year. That would be a great impact for this team for a freshman. I think this has the potential to be a great year.

[COYS]

"I would even say that McRoberts had more opportunities for points than Mason if only because McRoberts faced no real competition for his starting spot and not much equivalent talent off the bench . "

McRoberts was a freshman on a team with two senior All-Americas who combined for over 45 points per game. I rather suspect Duke will have a more balanced offense this season than was the case in 2006. I think 10-12 ppg for Plumlee is realistic.

Right, but I would imagine that Scheyer, Smith, and Singler will combine for about 45 points per game, themselves, meaning that Mason's role in the offense will be similar to McRoberts in terms of the size of the scoring burden he is asked to shoulder. That being said, I also agree that 10-12 ppg for Mason is realistic on the slightly more optimistic side. I think if he hits 12ppg to go along with an average of 15ppg between Scheyer, Smith, and Singler, we will be in great shape. But for that to happen, Mason must claim his spot in the rotation and never relinquish it during the course of the season. My guess that we would be happy with him matching McRobert's freshman year totals was predicated on the assumption that it may take a little time for Mason to emerge as the primary option behind Singler, Scheyer, and Smith. If he claims that right away, 10-12 could definitely happen.

[Carlos]

The key to putting up the kind of numbers that would put you in the Durant category is to have both the personal talent and the lack of personnel talent on the rest of the team. Essentially you need to be able to score and have few other options on the rest of the team - yet at the same time the rest of the team needs to be good enough that you don't fade into obscurity.

Looking at the top recruits in that criteria I think you can forget Wall and Cousins since they're going to play on a loaded UK team. The same thing with John Henson and Xavier Henry at UNC and KU. You could put Renardo Sidney into the same mix with the big IF of him being cleared to play athletically (he's been cleared academically but there are still questions about his amateur status).

That leaves two potential candidates -

Derrick Favors - probably the best chance of anyone. Lawal is going to demand a number of touches and Shumpert is a solid player, but other than that there aren't any clear scoring leaders.

Avery Bradley - he's a dark horse to make a lot of noise nationally. Texas has some great interior players with James and Pittman but with AJ Abrams gone there should be playing time to be had on the perimeter.

Personally I don't see any of the guys in this class with the ability and opportunity to do what Durant did. Now next year after Harrison Barnes picks Duke, you'll have a real clear leader for a Durant type of season!

[yancem]

The key to putting up the kind of numbers that would put you in the Durant category is to have both the personal talent and the lack of personnel talent on the rest of the team. Essentially you need to be able to score and have few other options on the rest of the team - yet at the same time the rest of the team needs to be good enough that you don't fade into obscurity.

......


Personally I don't see any of the guys in this class with the ability and opportunity to do what Durant did. Now next year after Harrison Barnes picks Duke, you'll have a real clear leader for a Durant type of season!

Umm, while I think that Barnes is going to be a big time player, I think that Duke will most likely be a little too loaded to match your criteria. Singler may return for his senor season, Smith should be a well established scorer, if reports are to believed, MP2 should be at least a solid low post threat, Curry, Dawkins and Kelly should be reliable outside threats and if we were to also sign Irving, we would have a dynamic freshman pg running the offense.

If Barnes comes to Duke he will be a big piece next season but there will be several solid scorers surrounding him.

[SupaDave]

The key to putting up the kind of numbers that would put you in the Durant category is to have both the personal talent and the lack of personnel talent on the rest of the team. Essentially you need to be able to score and have few other options on the rest of the team - yet at the same time the rest of the team needs to be good enough that you don't fade into obscurity.

Looking at the top recruits in that criteria I think you can forget Wall and Cousins since they're going to play on a loaded UK team. The same thing with John Henson and Xavier Henry at UNC and KU. You could put Renardo Sidney into the same mix with the big IF of him being cleared to play athletically (he's been cleared academically but there are still questions about his amateur status).

That leaves two potential candidates -

Derrick Favors - probably the best chance of anyone. Lawal is going to demand a number of touches and Shumpert is a solid player, but other than that there aren't any clear scoring leaders.

Avery Bradley - he's a dark horse to make a lot of noise nationally. Texas has some great interior players with James and Pittman but with AJ Abrams gone there should be playing time to be had on the perimeter.

Personally I don't see any of the guys in this class with the ability and opportunity to do what Durant did. Now next year after Harrison Barnes picks Duke, you'll have a real clear leader for a Durant type of season!

Criteria makes total sense but it also opens the door for Lance to have a big year at Cincy.

A commited and in-shape Sidney could make some noise at USC as well.

[airowe]

Criteria makes total sense but it also opens the door for Lance to have a big year at Cincy.

A commited and in-shape Sidney could make some noise at USC as well.

Miss. State?

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=2007369

I think Avery Bradley has the best chance to blow up of all the guys listed in this thread. If he can knock down the 3 consistently, that is.

[Wander]

The key to putting up the kind of numbers that would put you in the Durant category is to have both the personal talent and the lack of personnel talent on the rest of the team. Essentially you need to be able to score and have few other options on the rest of the team - yet at the same time the rest of the team needs to be good enough that you don't fade into obscurity.


Sounds right in theory, but Durant had two excellent offensive threats as teammates in Augustin and Abrams, who did, in fact, average double digits that season.

Wall won't score as much or (obviously) rebound as much as Durant, but he plays a different position, and maybe that loaded team will help him average a ridiculous number of assists instead.

[SupaDave]

Miss. State?

http://scouthoops.scout.com/a.z?s=75&p=8&c=1&nid=2007369

I think Avery Bradley has the best chance to blow up of all the guys listed in this thread. If he can knock down the 3 consistently, that is.

Yeah - Miss. State - had an OJ Mayo brain freeze...