Buckeyes Bolting?

[kydevil]

According to article Oden,Conley, and Cook will all declare, however only Oden will for sure sign with an agent.

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/news;_ylt=AtSVDQgpSyMsTMiXxUHgovI5nYcB?slug=ap-oden-nba&prov=ap&type=lgns

[hondoheel]

that OSU will now face Duke instead of UNC in the Big 10/ACC challenge? :D

[Patrick Yates]

In the Big 10, even without the departing players, OSU is still one of the top 2 teams due to their incoming recruits. Only MSU and IU are in their class, and I beleive that OSU is still better than IU, who rely heavily on 2 kids, but see a steep drop off after those 2.

OSU is more talented on paper than MSU, but I will say that the teams are at least equal due to MSU's experience, grittiness, and coaching.

I think UNC draws OSU regardless of who stays and who goes.

Patrick Yates

[Hector Vector]

Oden going is no surprise and understandable (I am a vigorous opponent of the "he has to go" school of thought -- Shaq, Webber, Duncan, etc obviously felt comfortable making a different choice -- but I certainly can't quarrel with the decision for an elite prospect like Oden or Durant).

In Conley's case, however, while I'm sure he will be a top 15 pick, I wish he wasn't in such a rush. I absolutely LOVE to watch him play. He would have been a truly great college point guard next year, and Ohio State would still have been a formidable top 5-10 team in the country, with NC potential. As a slight, inconsistent shooting 20 year old, however, he probably won't be that interesting to watch on the pro level for a few years. He is the type of player who would be best served by 2-3 years in college, and then being physically and mentally ready to step in as a starting nba point guard.

Cook could be throwing away a career by going this early.

My current top 10:

UNC (Wright leaves and they probably drop to 2)
UCLA (I love Love)
Memphis
Kansas
Louisville
Tennessee
Washington State
USC
Michigan State
Georgia Tech

Duke has enough talent to be in top 10 (8 McD AA for god's sake!) but the combination of no proven center and undersized PF (Singler, Thomas, McClure) could also result in a season very similar to the past one. Matriculation by Patterson (unexpected) or significant maturation by Zoubek into a Zwikker level solid big man are necessary for top 10.

[JasonEvans]

Oden going is no surprise and understandable (I am a vigorous opponent of the "he has to go" school of thought -- Shaq, Webber, Duncan, etc obviously felt comfortable making a different choice -- but I certainly can't quarrel with the decision for an elite prospect like Oden or Durant).

In Conley's case, however, while I'm sure he will be a top 15 pick, I wish he wasn't in such a rush. I absolutely LOVE to watch him play. He would have been a truly great college point guard next year, and Ohio State would still have been a formidable top 5-10 team in the country, with NC potential. As a slight, inconsistent shooting 20 year old, however, he probably won't be that interesting to watch on the pro level for a few years. He is the type of player who would be best served by 2-3 years in college, and then being physically and mentally ready to step in as a starting nba point guard.

Cook could be throwing away a career by going this early.


I think everything you say about Conley is correct, but I think he should come out. He is not the kind of physical freak (especially in the size department) who will always be a lottery pick. If he has a tough year next season without his longtime runnung mate Oden then his stock could drop a lot. He may never sniff the top ten or even the first half of the first round again. I think that must factor into his decision-making process.

Also, as I have mentioned several times regarding this year's draft and decisions by kids like Conley and Lawson-- this is a terrible year for PGs while next year will be loaded with PGs. The Atlanta Hawks (with Indiana's pick late in the lottery this year) are desperate for a PG and will take the best one on the board with their pick. Seeing as so many other top young PGs are staying in school, Conley would be wise to come out now and take advantage of the situation.

Sorry, but if these kids can get paid and there is a real risk of their stock dropping them out of the first round if they stay, then they should come out.

-Jason

[Hector Vector]

Somehow Shaq was able to resist being likely No. 1 pick after freshman year, and certain No. 1 pick after sophomore year, and that was with the prospect of $50 M contract (before rookie caps) and huge endorsements in front of him.

You might argue that Conley has more draft risk than Shaq, but that's sort of upside down logic -- the worse draft prospect you are the earlier you should go.

In terms of risking draft status, Conley showed in numerous stretches that he can perform without Oden. He would still be with top 10 talent next year, and would gain the advantage of being the clear, and undisputed leader on the team.

My standards for the draft, except for the absolute freak prospects are:

a. Have you really been the man in college? Conley was getting there at the end of the year, but next year he would have the experience of being the leader of team and an AA.

b. How well equipped are you to play competitively in NBA? I think Conley would be marginal NBA pt guard next year (think Telfair), but after another year or two be an immediate starter and possibly a star (think Chris Paul).

Players like Ty Thomas and Chris Wilcox are perfectly adequate pros, but one more full year as top ten in the country players would have been much better.

I certainly can't blame Conley, thomas, wilcox for decision, but I don't think they have to, I think they'd be better of not, and from a personal perspective wish they hadn't been in such a rush to leave college.

[jkidd31]

Conley might be in the same position Chris Duhon was after his freshman year. That's when CDu's stock was the highest. After his performance in the NCAA tournament and the fact this is a weak PG draft, even if he stays and his a good year his draft stock might not be as high as right now. Plus he can work on his shot, it's not like he was a terrible shooter.

[SilkyJ]

Sorry, but if these kids can get paid and there is a real risk of their stock dropping them out of the first round if they stay, then they should come out.

-Jason

Don't you mean:

Jason "Sorry, but if these kids can get paid and there is a real risk of their stock dropping them out of the first round if they stay, then they should come out" Evans.

I would imagine Cook will test the waters and most likely return. With Lewis graduating, he will only have to compete with Butler for minutes at SG. He will almost certainly start and probably be the feature on offense (he is a better shooter and rebounder than Butler, and averaged more points than him despite playing only 20mpg comapred to Butler's 30+mpg) He'd be crazy to go.

[vango]

http://proxy.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/news/story?id=2843539

[Classof06]

I was surprised by Conley, especially when he came right out and said he'd be back right after the NC game. Then again, we learn time and time again that you can't take kids' words for anything until they actually make a final decision. Conley gets the best of both worlds, because while he won't sign an agent, his dad is going to be Oden's, so he can get a realistic picture about what's going on without actually recusing NCAA eligibility. A very astute move by Conley.

Daequan Cook surprised me the most. While he didn't have a bad year, Cook had nowhere near the year he is capable of; he was supposed to be the 2nd best recruit in the class behind Oden, not Conley. This situation reminds me a lot of Corey Maggette in that Cook undoubtedly has the NBA potential, but didn't start and was the 6th man on a NC runner-up team. Cook has the prototypical body of an NBA 2-guard, and while I'm sure he'll make an impact in the NBA, I think he'd be better served by staying another year.

With all this NBA departure, I think people are going to be very, very surprised to see that Ohio State won't really skip a beat. They have an absolutely phenomenal class coming in, and with more minutes available, these kids can step in right away. Look for Ohio State to be very strong again next year. You heard it here first...

[JBDuke]

Don't you mean:

Jason "Sorry, but if these kids can get paid and there is a real risk of their stock dropping them out of the first round if they stay, then they should come out" Evans.

I would imagine Cook will test the waters and most likely return. With Lewis graduating, he will only have to compete with Butler for minutes at SG. He will almost certainly start and probably be the feature on offense (he is a better shooter and rebounder than Butler, and averaged more points than him despite playing only 20mpg comapred to Butler's 30+mpg) He'd be crazy to go.

My sources say that Cook is very much gone - he's not very happy at Ohio State, apparently, and part of that may just be that he doesn't like college. I'd be shocked to see him back. Conley is a different story - he seems to love college. I think he's torn by the wisdom of the move - as Jason said, this is the year to come out, given all the quality PGs that may be in the first round next year. If it was just a decision of Mike's heart, I think he'd be back at Ohio State next year. As it is, it looks like a real toss-up.

[Buckeye Devil]

While Oden leaves a huge gap, the loss of Conley hurts OSU more. They obviously did not foresee Conley leaving after one year as evidenced by the fact that they do not have a PG in next year's class. Jamar Butler will return to the PG position that he played in 2005-06, but he does not penetrate and break down defenses like Conley.

Butler is the only PG on the roster next year and Matta will not recruit a juco PG or anyone else to plug the gap left by Conley's departure. He has a hot recruit coming in from Michigan the next year and he does not want to
create any competition and give Michigan's head coach any ammo to sway the kid.

In short, Butler has to stay healthy for OSU to have a decent season next year. He will only get respite from incoming frosh Evan Turner and possibly Dave Lighty, but not much. The potential is there for him to absolutely wear down in 2007-08.

I agree that Conley and Oden have to go now. Cook is a different story.

His PT decreased dramatically. His decision making is bad and he is absolutely lousy on defense. Plus, his outside shot is flat and inconsistent. He could benefit from another year at OSU, but will probably leave as well. He thinks he has the ability to play at the next level and is a lot like Maggette was at the end of 99-but not nearly as good. Cook will be in for a rude awakening at the next level assuming he makes it.

[Classof06]

The loss of Conley does hurt this team. but this team is still going to be very good. I think the uncertainty at the PG position just puts more pressure on the other players, and that shouldn't be a problem. The end result is that with the ridiculous abundance of frontcourt players they have, they won't be as perimeter-oriented as before. As great as Oden was, I'd have to believe that the combination of Othello Hunter and Kosta Koufos makes up for Oden's "off-hand" production and then some. Hunter is very solid and Koufos is an absolute stud. Anyone who saw the McD AA game saw the flashes.

I also expect David Lighty to have a breakout year. The only reason I can come up with as to why he didn't eventually crack the starting lineup is that Matta didn't want to mess with a good thing; they had a 20+ game win streak coming into the NC game. I also think one of Matta's biggest coaching mistakes in the NC game was waiting until 12 minutes left in the 2nd half to bring Lighty back in the game after he had a great 1st half off the bench.

In the end, losing Conley does hurt, but having Jamar Butler helps and the kids that will have to step into the shoes of the departed are more than capable of doing so.