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crote
07-23-2009, 01:04 AM
I was surprised to see this out so soon. (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/dickvitale/news/story?id=4313934) Not that it means much (or anything) but something fun and basketball related for the middle of summer.

Singler is first team, Scheyer is sixth team.

Other ACC:

Vasquez - 2nd
Gani Lawal - 4th
Trevor Booker - 5th
Ed Davis - 6th

Honorable Mention: Solomon Alabi, Al-Farouq Aminu, Deon Thompson, Malcolm Delaney

FireOgilvie
07-23-2009, 02:37 AM
I think this is a pretty solid list. I have a feeling that Luke Harangody is going to run away with NPOY, especially if Notre Dame finishes with a decent record. I don't think Kalin Lucas will be first team at the end of the year. I also believe Craig Brackins (6th team) and Manny Harris (4th) will have better years than Vitale predicts.

As far as Duke guys go, I agree with Singler on the 1st team and Scheyer on the 6th team. I wouldn't be surprised if Scheyer deserves a higher ranking when it's all said and done, especially if he is more consistent with his shooting and actually racks up a decent number of assists (2.8 is too low for a guy that played PG for a large portion of the year, IMO).

Also, keep in mind that this list includes no incoming freshmen. I expect Favors, Wall, and Henson to all have great seasons that merit national attention. I'm betting one of them will be 2nd or 3rd team.

Bob Green
07-23-2009, 03:56 AM
I disagree with Vasquez being rated higher than Scheyer. This is a case of Vasquez earning credit for being flashy while Scheyer is penalized for his quiet efficiency. A quick look at last season's numbers will show the two are quite similar statisticly:


Scheyer 32.8 min 14.9 points 3.6 rebs 1.79 A/TO 1.42 pps
Vasquez 34.6 min 17.5 points 5.4 rebs 1.80 A/TO 1.14 pps

I've seen this same phenomenom in the work place repeatedly. Flashy workers are valued over the quiet type.

FireOgilvie
07-23-2009, 04:38 AM
I disagree with Vasquez being rated higher than Scheyer. This is a case of Vasquez earning credit for being flashy while Scheyer is penalized for his quiet efficiency. A quick look at last season's numbers will show the two are quite similar statisticly:


Scheyer 32.8 min 14.9 points 3.6 rebs 1.79 A/TO 1.42 pps
Vasquez 34.6 min 17.5 points 5.4 rebs 1.80 A/TO 1.14 pps

I've seen this same phenomenom in the work place repeatedly. Flashy workers are valued over the quiet type.

I disagree. First, I don't particularly like Vasquez, so this will be somewhat painful for me. But, I have to stick up for him in this case because I feel like he deserves it.

Vasquez's numbers are higher in every single category except 3 pt percentage, and Vasquez led Maryland in points, rebounds, assists, and steals last year... he plays PG and was third on the team in blocked shots. He was Maryland's entire team last year and led them to the NCAA Tournament. The other team's entire defensive strategy was to contain him, because Maryland had nothing else going for them. I think Scheyer is great, but he was our third option last year, and while steady at PG, he didn't make many assists and didn't even defend his position. You didn't list assists, but Vasquez averaged 5.0 a game compared to 2.8 for Scheyer. Two years ago, when Maryland actually had some talent with Gist and Osby, Vasquez averaged 6.8 assists/game. It's really easy to be more efficient when you're the third option vs. almost the only option on a team... and Scheyer still had a lower FG% than Vasquez. I like that Scheyer stepped up during the ACC Tournament and especially later in the year, but he also went through a giant slump that probably cost us a couple games. I'm pretty sure his assist numbers also went down once he moved to PG. Vasquez single-handedly beat UNC last year and put a pretty untalented Maryland team in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. Based on the past, Vasquez definitely deserves to be ahead of Scheyer, IMO. Efficiency stats don't tell the whole story when you have to carry and entire team on your back all season.

Bob Green
07-23-2009, 04:52 AM
You didn't list assists, but Vasquez averaged 5.0 a game compared to 2.8 for Scheyer.

I listed Assists to Turnover ratio where Vasquez (1.80) and Scheyer (1.79) are equal. Yes, Vasquez dished out more assists per game than Scheyer, but he also turned the ball over more than Scheyer:

Vasquez - 2.8 turnovers per game
Scheyer - 1.5 turnovers per game

CDu
07-23-2009, 06:56 AM
I listed Assists to Turnover ratio where Vasquez (1.80) and Scheyer (1.79) are equal. Yes, Vasquez dished out more assists per game than Scheyer, but he also turned the ball over more than Scheyer:

Vasquez - 2.8 turnovers per game
Scheyer - 1.5 turnovers per game

I think the previous poster's point was that it is much harder to be efficient when you are expected to create all of the offense for your team. Vazquez had much more of a burden to create scoring opportunities for himself and others than Scheyer. He was also the primary focus of the defense unlike Scheyer. Thus, comparing efficiency isn't appropriate in this case.

weezie
07-23-2009, 07:52 AM
Vasquez is the "Captain of the Train Wreck." Scheyer is, no doubt, pleased to be a likely captain of Coach K's team this year. Vasquez still feels he has so much to prove to the the "haters" while Jon is an established entity. I would still prefer Jon leading any team.

doctorhook
07-23-2009, 07:55 AM
Bob,

Do you have those stats in conference play? As much as I disliked Vasquez, it seems he was stronger in conf. play.

quickgtp
07-23-2009, 08:01 AM
I think the previous poster's point was that it is much harder to be efficient when you are expected to create all of the offense for your team. Vazquez had much more of a burden to create scoring opportunities for himself and others than Scheyer. He was also the primary focus of the defense unlike Scheyer. Thus, comparing efficiency isn't appropriate in this case.

Well said. Vasquez has to carry the UMD team where as Scheyer has been the 3rd, or sometimes 4th scoring option for Duke. That will change this year, but up to this point Vasquez has been the better overall player. Stats alone do not tell the story in this comparison. I cannot stand Greivis and I certainly like Jon but IMO Vitale called it correctly here.

CDu
07-23-2009, 08:09 AM
Well said. Vasquez has to carry the UMD team where as Scheyer has been the 3rd, or sometimes 4th scoring option for Duke. That will change this year, but up to this point Vasquez has been the better overall player. Stats alone do not tell the story in this comparison. I cannot stand Greivis and I certainly like Jon but IMO Vitale called it correctly here.

To add to that, it is very possible that Scheyer could make a big jump this year. If he takes to the role of first/second option and can begin to create for others without seeing his turnover rate increase, he can perhaps pass Vazquez. But to this point, Vazquez has been asked to do a lot more for his team than Scheyer has, with much less talent around him than Scheyer has had. And that's why Vazquez has been rated ahead of Scheyer.

CameronBornAndBred
07-23-2009, 08:13 AM
I disagree with Vasquez being rated higher than Scheyer.
I disagree. Maryland would be be squat without Vasquez, Duke would be less of a team without Scheyer but still get by. I don't agree with Vitale that Scheyer is 3 teams behind General Greivis.

CameronBornAndBred
07-23-2009, 08:15 AM
Vasquez is the "Captain of the Train Wreck." Scheyer is, no doubt, pleased to be a likely captain of Coach K's team this year. Vasquez still feels he has so much to prove to the the "haters" while Jon is an established entity. I would still prefer Jon leading any team.
I also agree with that last sentiment.

CDu
07-23-2009, 08:20 AM
Bob,

Do you have those stats in conference play? As much as I disliked Vasquez, it seems he was stronger in conf. play.

Statistically speaking, Vazquez was basically the same player in ACC play as he was outside the ACC. He was slightly better out - which makes sense when you consider that there are some bunnies on the non-ACC schedule for most teams.

CDu
07-23-2009, 08:33 AM
I disagree. Maryland would be be squat without Vasquez, Duke would be less of a team without Scheyer but still get by. I don't agree with Vitale that Scheyer is 3 teams behind General Greivis.

I agree that Vazquez has been better/more important to this point, and that the difference may not be necessarily huge. The difference to this point is that Vazquez has had to handle more responsibility on a really bad team, whereas Scheyer has been one of many sharing the load so far.

However, I think the 2nd versus 6th team thing is deceiving. It's important to note that Vitale is doing this purely as C-F-F-G-G. So a difference of three teams on a national level is really a difference of 6-7 players at your position nationally. At guard, that's a small number and may not be very different in quality from 2nd team to 6th team.

The guys between Vazquez and Scheyer are:
- Randle (one of the better PG in the PAC-10)
- Warren (highly-rated freshman who may or may not have a breakout this year without Griffin)
- Battle (arguably the best returning guard in the Big-10 along with Lucas)
- Downey (best returning SEC guard)
- Anderson (perhaps the best returning SG in the Big-12, if its not Warren)
- Wise (either the best or second-best returning PG in the PAC-10)

One could quibble with the placement of Scheyer behind some of these guys, but Vitale is basing it largely on performance in a more leading role last year. Most of those guys had slightly bigger years than Scheyer last year. In fact, only Warren didn't. He's getting the nod based on reputation.

The one definite quibble I have is that he has those guys AND guys like Denis Clemente ahead of Malcolm Delaney. That seems silly to me. I think Delaney has proven more than Denis Clemente.

CardinalBlue
07-23-2009, 09:10 AM
I'm guessing Vitale's ignoring freshmen because he doesn't have enough to judge them on... but I've gotta think that John Wall's gonna be on one of the end of the year teams

gw67
07-23-2009, 09:11 AM
Overall, most of Vitale's selections seem about right to me although there are some players who I haven't heard of much less seen play. With regards to Vasquez and Scheyer, I think the relative ratings of the two players are about right. I suspect that I have seen about 80% of the games both players have played in the last three years. Both are good college players who are playing out of position for the good of their teams. Vasquez is a point guard but probably plays less than half his time at the point. IMO, he is the best passer in the ACC and, like Scheyer, is an underrated defensive player. He is excellent at driving to the hoop and, as other have pointed out, he carries a bigger load for Maryland. His turnovers reflect a player who tries to make plays. Scheyer is a fundamentally sound and good all around player who has not been the key player for Duke during the past three years. Even though he plays the point in the Devils' offense, others (Singler and Henderson) were required to make most the plays and thus his low turnovers.

Both players should end their careers with good stats (Vasquez with 2100 points, 700 assists and 700 rebounds, and Scheyer with 1900 points, 350 assists and 500 rebounds). Vasquez's PAR (points + assists + rebounds) may get him into the top twenty all time in the ACC. Both are outstanding free throw shooters and I expect Jon to be near the top ten in ACC records while Vasquez should be in the top forty.

gw67

sagegrouse
07-23-2009, 09:50 AM
I disagree with Vasquez being rated higher than Scheyer. This is a case of Vasquez earning credit for being flashy while Scheyer is penalized for his quiet efficiency. A quick look at last season's numbers will show the two are quite similar statisticly:


Scheyer 32.8 min 14.9 points 3.6 rebs 1.79 A/TO 1.42 pps
Vasquez 34.6 min 17.5 points 5.4 rebs 1.80 A/TO 1.14 pps

I've seen this same phenomenom in the work place repeatedly. Flashy workers are valued over the quiet type.

I think Jon Scheyer will blow the doors off the ACC this year, but last year.... Yikes!

In a 13-game stretch, beginning with Va Tech and extending through the BC debacle in Boston, Jon couldn't hit his threes. Moreover, he couldn't even make layups. If my calculations are correct (there's always a first time), Jon scored 11.5 PPG, shooting only 33% from 3PT land and 31% overall. What's worse, he shot only 28% from inside the arc, many of these contested layups that never seemed to fall.

The next 11 games (through the Texas game in the 2nd round) were quite a turnaround. He scored 19.1 PPG, shooting 46.1% from 3PT land and 46.4% overall. This is the player we expect to see in 2009-2010.

Anyway, I have no trouble with a fairly low preseason evaluation for Jon (although top 30 ain't bad). I want to see a really high postseason rating.

sagegrouse
'I left out the stats for the Villanova game; this is a family Web site.'

CDu
07-23-2009, 09:53 AM
I'm guessing Vitale's ignoring freshmen because he doesn't have enough to judge them on... but I've gotta think that John Wall's gonna be on one of the end of the year teams

Yeah, Vitale does a "Rolls Royce" list with returning players and a "Diaper Dandies" list for incoming freshmen.

jv001
07-23-2009, 10:02 AM
I think Jon Scheyer will blow the doors off the ACC this year, but last year.... Yikes!

In a 13-game stretch, beginning with Va Tech and extending through the BC debacle in Boston, Jon couldn't hit his threes. Moreover, he couldn't even make layups. If my calculations are correct (there's always a first time), Jon scored 11.5 PPG, shooting only 33% from 3PT land and 31% overall. What's worse, he shot only 28% from inside the arc, many of these contested layups that never seemed to fall.

The next 11 games (through the Texas game in the 2nd round) were quite a turnaround. He scored 19.1 PPG, shooting 46.1% from 3PT land and 46.4% overall. This is the player we expect to see in 2009-2010.

Anyway, I have no trouble with a fairly low preseason evaluation for Jon (although top 30 ain't bad). I want to see a really high postseason rating.

sagegrouse
'I left out the stats for the Villanova game; this is a family Web site.'

Gotta agree with the Sage. Jon had a terrible slump for several games. Don't know why, but at the end of the season when he had the ball in his hands, he played very well. I look for Jon to have a great senior year. And as Sage said, a really high postseason rating. Higher than 6th team. Go Duke!

MulletMan
07-23-2009, 01:22 PM
Note that the column says that it was updated this AM at 7:06 (July 23rd). But I saw that column posted on ESPN yesterday afternoon. I'm pretty sure that I must have been halucinating, but Singler was NOT on the list at that time.

I must have been drunk.

MADevil30
07-23-2009, 01:28 PM
Note that the column says that it was updated this AM at 7:06 (July 23rd). But I saw that column posted on ESPN yesterday afternoon. I'm pretty sure that I must have been halucinating, but Singler was NOT on the list at that time.

I must have been drunk.

You weren't, I saw the same thing! I assumed it was the reason for the update

ForeverBlowingBubbles
07-23-2009, 03:37 PM
I gotta go with the pre-season list being fine. Vasquez is better at creating for himself and others as of now. Jon will have more than his fare share chance to prove himself the better player this season.

ACCBBallFan
07-23-2009, 04:32 PM
I don't have an issue with any of those guys listed. IMO, not so much Ed Davis, but Trevor Booker is listed too low as he is a veteran. Davis certainly has the potential to climb, as does Henson.

Malcolm Delaney vs Denis Clemente is better than honorable mention but gets no notoriety since VA Tech is only televised vs. UNC and Duke, same with Booker.

I think cases can be made for other ACC guys Shumpert, Landesberg, Trapani, Jeff Allen, Tracy Smith and Favors, but not sure who they would displace, given so many leagues.

Most people outside the ACC would say Malcolm who? Some inside ACC for that matter, and Trevor who? just like we Say Denis who even though he also played at Miami. Ditale is writing to a national aduience.

Dickie V overdoes it with Teams to avoid any controversy like Digger does when fillin in bubble teams.

doctorhook
07-23-2009, 08:27 PM
CDu,

What about Jon in conf play, do you have those? Jon's season FG % was not so great, 39%? Vasquez not better for the season, but how about conf. play? Thanks

CDu
07-23-2009, 08:52 PM
CDu,

What about Jon in conf play, do you have those? Jon's season FG % was not so great, 39%? Vasquez not better for the season, but how about conf. play? Thanks

Here are Vazquez's numbers in ACC play (19 games):
35.2mpg, 16.6ppg, 5.3apg, 4.8rpg, 38.5 fg%, 82.0 ft%, 30.3 3pt%, 1.05 pps, 1.72 a/to

Here are Scheyer's numbers in ACC play (also 19 games):
34.7mpg, 15.3ppg, 2.8apg, 3.8rpg, 37.2 fg%, 82.6 ft%, 37.9 3pt%, 1.46 pps, 1.89 a/to

Scheyer's ACC numbers were pretty comparable to his season numbers. Vazquez's numbers were slightly worse in ACC play. Vazquez is the more impressive playmaker, but was burdened with much more responsibility to create offense for himself and others on a pretty weak Maryland team.

jipops
07-23-2009, 09:11 PM
I certainly see Ed Davis finishing much higher than 6th team. I know pro potential cannot always be used to measure a college player's rating, but this extremely talented kid will be relied on heavily. And I'm betting he'll produce.

ACCBBallFan
07-25-2009, 01:51 PM
Ed Davis's metrics depend on the so far not universally agreed upon whether John Henson can play SF.

If not Davis-Deon-Henson-Zeller each only average about 20 MPG with token time to the Wear twins.

So their metrics may not be as high as their caliber of play. Hard to make a case for any of the 4 being so much better/worse that somebody gets 25 MPG while another only logs 15 MPG

gumbomoop
07-25-2009, 03:00 PM
Ed Davis's metrics depend on the so far not universally agreed upon whether John Henson can play SF.

If not Davis-Deon-Henson-Zeller each only average about 20 MPG with token time to the Wear twins.

So their metrics may not be as high as their caliber of play. Hard to make a case for any of the 4 being so much better/worse that somebody gets 25 MPG while another only logs 15 MPG

I think Roy does an admirable job doling out the minutes down the bench. To outward appearance, his guys seem willing to play a bit less than their talent would merit. Gotta be one of Roy's strengths. Barring injury, the reasonably talented but frosh Wears will surely see minimal time, but some.

I'm guessing that Henson can play some wing, and for all I know, so can Zeller. I recall being so impressed with Davis pretty early last year because of his rebounds/min. And then one of our UNC friends [Wheat, Biscuit?] said that before his injury, Zeller was ahead of Davis. When Zeller returned, I was impressed enough to think he'd play a whole lot in '09-'10.

So, either the top 4 get about 20 min each, with absolutely minimal time for Wears - as ACCBBF says - or, more likely in my guess, Henson plays mostly wing, giving the top 3 bigs 24-25 min each, with scraps for Wears.

Under any scenario, it's a lot of talent, so Z and LT and MP1better be improved, and MP2 better be close to the real deal. Wouldn't hurt if RK could shine a bit, too.

Great competition, and Duke-UNC still seem obvious preseason top tier ACC for '09-'10. Only 3+ months away. Gaacckk!! Plenty of time for us to argue, predict, calculate, anguish, whatever.

CDu
07-25-2009, 04:46 PM
Ed Davis's metrics depend on the so far not universally agreed upon whether John Henson can play SF.

If not Davis-Deon-Henson-Zeller each only average about 20 MPG with token time to the Wear twins.

So their metrics may not be as high as their caliber of play. Hard to make a case for any of the 4 being so much better/worse that somebody gets 25 MPG while another only logs 15 MPG

If you're suggesting that those four will play 20mpg each, then I disagree. Even if Henson cannot play SF, I don't think those four will average 20mpg each. They'll combine for about 80mpg, but the minutes will be divided up differently. I think Zeller will be the one who suffers if Henson can't play SF. I wasn't very impressed with Zeller last year (seemed soft), and he was clearly third fiddle to Davis and Thompson last season. I think that will remain the case this year.

I think Davis and Thompson will get their 50-55 minutes regardless of Henson. If Henson can play the 3 some, that frees up minutes. I'd expect him to get ~10mpg there. But otherwise, he will be fighting Zeller for 25-30 minutes per game in the post.

That said, I think we'll see Henson play some SF.

ACCBBallFan
07-25-2009, 09:06 PM
I agree CDu that if push comes to shove, Zeller is the odd man out, along with the already presumed Wear twins getting little PT.

But Roy has been criticized the opposite of coach K for playing too many guys and not getting them into a rhythm with an 8-man roration not last year but the year before

when Tyler was giving up time to Alex Stepheson and Deon and QT to Wes Miller and QT after Frasor was injured.

Not gonna be Davis-Deon or Henson who get squeezaed, possibly Zeller if he does not play as well as those guys, though he does give them a big who can hit from outside at least in HS. Did not play enough before he was injured and came back tentative to tell.

Also agree though Henson cannot necessarily play SF against everybody, he probably can versus some ACC teams depending on matchups.

There's a PT thread on THR but so far no one is committing except 3 people and it has been out there a few day. Most hang onto the platitude that Roy always plays a lot of guys without showing how the MPG by person resembles 200 MPG in total.

Bob Green
07-25-2009, 09:55 PM
But Roy has been criticized the opposite of coach K for playing too many guys and not getting them into a rhythm with an 8-man rotation......

Three points:

1. I've criticized Ol' Roy for playing too many players many times so I definitely believe he will find minutes for all four: Thompson, Davis, Zeller, & Henson. The Wear twins should see little court time as freshmen.

2. Last season, IMO, Carolina was a better team with Deon Thompson and Ed Davis playing side-by-side and Hansbrough on the bench. This is not anti-Hansbrough sour grapes - I truly believe it. Carolina will be formidable inside and their success this year will be dependent upon Strickland, Drew, and McDonald developing into steady backcourt players. Ginyard will be steady on defense and provide the required leadership.

3. Zeller is a bit of a wildcard in that he was ahead of Davis early last season but less than impressive when he returned from his broken wrist.

COYS
07-25-2009, 10:38 PM
3. Zeller is a bit of a wildcard in that he was ahead of Davis early last season but less than impressive when he returned from his broken wrist.

I actually would be surprised if Zeller fails to impress next year. Zeller was actually a far more polished offensive player than Davis was early last year. Davis definitely benefited from being the fifth offensive option so opposing teams couldn't focus their defense on stopping him. While I think he's very talented, I do think Zeller has the potential to have a 08-09 Davis-esque impact next year. As many have already stated, a lot of this will have to do with how effective Henson is handling the ball on the perimeter, but even with Thompson, Davis, Zeller, and Henson splitting time in the post, I think there will be enough minutes for Zeller to have his chances to make an impact and earn some playing time . . . and I think he will.

That being said, i think that the Zeller issue will only complicate UNC's post rotation. Zeller gave up a year of eligibility to be little more than an insurance policy and a bit contributor in last year's run. He certainly has pro potential and it will be hard for Roy to keep him satisfied with limited playing time. Then again, I guess if Zeller is content to wait his turn, it's possible that UNC could be without Davis, Thompson, and Henson after next year.

brevity
07-26-2009, 04:35 AM
I'm enjoying the recent direction of this thread. It now looks like the best discussions of UNC basketball can be found at DBR.

Actually, I'm surprised DBR members don't go into depth about the other ACC teams more often. We may not be as emotionally invested, but we watch enough ACC basketball each season to have informed opinions.

Moderators: any chance each of the other 11 teams gets its own thread this fall?

Wander
07-26-2009, 08:36 PM
I think Zeller will be the one who suffers if Henson can't play SF. I wasn't very impressed with Zeller last year (seemed soft), and he was clearly third fiddle to Davis and Thompson last season. I think that will remain the case this year.

I thought I was the odd man out thinking this, but I also never saw anything too impressive out of Zeller. I didn't think he'd hold up well in physical conference play. Davis is a whole other story, and I believe the most glaring mistake on Vitale's teams.

FireOgilvie
07-26-2009, 09:11 PM
I thought I was the odd man out thinking this, but I also never saw anything too impressive out of Zeller. I didn't think he'd hold up well in physical conference play. Davis is a whole other story, and I believe the most glaring mistake on Vitale's teams.

I agree about Zeller and Davis. Davis would have averaged a double-double if he played 30 min/game last year. He rebounded at a higher rate than Hansbrough and he was also a great shot blocker. I think UNC could be a better defensive team than they were last year now that Hansbrough and Lawson are gone... they'll definitely block a lot more shots.