Duke FB Wins O/U = 3.5

[A-Tex Devil]

Scroll down a bit....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/

Richmond
UNCC
Army
One ACC win.....

If you need to add that extra section to your house.... I'm just sayin'...;)

[CDu]

Scroll down a bit....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/

Richmond
UNCC
Army
One ACC win.....

If you need to add that extra section to your house.... I'm just sayin'...;)

That one ACC win might be difficult to come by this year, unfortunately. Our schedule is not very forgiving. Our home games are against Maryland, Va Tech, Ga Tech, and Wake, and I don't see us winning on the road. I think Army, Maryland, and Virginia are the coin flip games. If we win two of those three and beat Richmond and UNCC, we get to four. But I wouldn't count on us winning two of those three. And I'll be surprised if we win any of the other FBS games.

I think 3.5 or 4 wins is probably a reasonable line for us this year. Four or five wins is definitely doable, but three is very reasonable too.

On an unrelated note, it's weird to see that we don't finish the season against UNC this year (instead we finish with Wake).

[Highlander]

Scroll down a bit....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/

Richmond
UNCC
Army
One ACC win.....

If you need to add that extra section to your house.... I'm just sayin'...;)

Think you mean NC Central. UNCC is in Charlotte, and they don't have a football team... yet.

[Bluedog]

Scroll down a bit....

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/futures/

Richmond
UNCC
Army
One ACC win.....

If you need to add that extra section to your house.... I'm just sayin'...;)

It's still somewhat distressing seeing us projected as having the second fewest wins in all of the FBS (only Washington St is projected with fewer wins at 3). And by far the longest odds to win the ACC at 50 to 1. I hope we prove them wrong! We're certainly moving in the right direction, but I think we still have quite a long bit to go. Our schedule is not easy...

[wolfpackdevil]

I think that these odds are HORRIBLE!!

Duke has 3 GUARENTEED wins. (Richmond, Army, and NCCU)

And I think Duke will be favored in these ACC games.

at UVA
vs. UMD
vs. WF

[moonpie23]

mich had a "guaranteed win" v. app state too...

[JasonEvans]

Rivals has ranked the top 120 teams (http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=954694) in college football. Duke is rated #88.

Richmond and NCCentral are not ranked.
Army is #114.

Other ACC teams:
Virginia #70
BC #68
Maryland #59
Wake #44
Miami #39
NCSU #38
Clemson #32
UNC #28
FSU #23

Still waiting to see where Va Tech and Ga Tech will be ranked.

--Jason "as many have said, football is slow recovery process" Evans

[JBDuke]

Rivals has ranked the top 120 teams (http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=954694) in college football. Duke is rated #88.

Richmond and NCCentral are not ranked.
Army is #114.

Other ACC teams:
Virginia #70
BC #68
Maryland #59
Wake #44
Miami #39
NCSU #38
Clemson #32
UNC #28
FSU #23

Still waiting to see where Va Tech and Ga Tech will be ranked.

--Jason "as many have said, football is slow recovery process" Evans

So, with 120 total FBS teams, Rivals has 7 of the 12 ACC teams in the top 1/3, with Wake just outside that number; 9 or 12 in the top half of the subdivision, and no team in the bottom 25%. Yikes.

[A-Tex Devil]

Yeah.... I was being a LITTLE tongue and cheek, but I was thinking it should be more like 4. Someone has to go 3-8, though. Hopefully, it's not us.

[JasonEvans]

From the same like ATex provided--

Odds to win the ACC Championship game:


Virginia Tech 5/2
Clemson 4/1
Florida State 4/1
Georgia Tech 6/1
Miami-Florida 6/1
North Carolina 8/1
North Carolina State 8/1
Wake Forest 15/1
Boston College 30/1
Virginia 30/1
Maryland 30/1
Duke 50/1

--Jason "I like Ga Tech at 6-1" Evans

[Wander]

I'd put the O/U just a bit higher at 4 games. Wins against Army, Richmond, and NCCU, and one conference win somewhere seems easily the most likely case to me.

[CDu]

I'd put the O/U just a bit higher at 4 games. Wins against Army, Richmond, and NCCU, and one conference win somewhere seems easily the most likely case to me.

I'd say 4 could be considered a reasonable O/U as well as 3.5.

Games we should win: NCCU and Richmond at home.
Tossup games: @Army, @UVa, vs Maryland
Games we should lose: the rest

Given that two of the tossup games are road games, going 1-2 in those seems like the most likely outcome, which would give us a 3-win season. I think winning either 3 or 4 games is the most likely scenario. Based on that, 3.5 seems like a reasonable guess.

[Wander]

I guess I don't view Army as a toss-up game. I don't claim to be an expert on either team, but I'd be more concerned with Richmond if anything. I know we're still not a good team, but I'd say the chance of losing one of our three "easy" games is about equal to the other side of things - winning two ACC games. Off the top of my head:

25% chance: 3 wins or less
50% chance: 4 wins
25% chance: 5 wins or more

Yeah, I know this is pretty nitpicky at this point.

[sagegrouse]

I'd say 4 could be considered a reasonable O/U as well as 3.5.

Games we should win: NCCU and Richmond at home.
Tossup games: @Army, @UVa, vs Maryland
Games we should lose: the rest

Given that two of the tossup games are road games, going 1-2 in those seems like the most likely outcome, which would give us a 3-win season. I think winning either 3 or 4 games is the most likely scenario. Based on that, 3.5 seems like a reasonable guess.

I can't follow the logic being discussed here. These are random events (not predetermined outcomes) with certain probabiliities, which are unknown but can be estimated.

The expected value in the number of wins gets skewed by these probabilities. A team that is an underdog in every game would surely have an O/U of 1 or 2, because any upset gives it a win.

Similarly for Duke. For the sake of concocting an example, lets assume that Duke is a mortal lock against Richmond and NCCU at home and against a highly disorganized Army team on the road. Lets assume that Duke is an underdog in the remaining conference and KU games. Surely the O/U should be something like 5 in that Duke is likely to pull off an upset or two with at least a 20% average chance of winning the other games.

Now in the real world Duke could lose one of the sure things in the example. But I, for one, would take the over on anything up to 4 or 4.5. And I expect coach Cut agrees with me.

sagegrouse

[Devilsfan]

OVER!!!!

[CDu]

I can't follow the logic being discussed here. These are random events (not predetermined outcomes) with certain probabiliities, which are unknown but can be estimated.

Trust me, I don't need a lesson in probabilities. And these aren't completely random events. It is true that there is some variation in probability of outcome due to randomness, but we can estimate the true likelihood of victory in each game with some reasonable degree of accuracy. That's what I was trying to do in a simplified format - take the games in which the likelihood of victory is really small (or really large) and assume the probable dichotomous outcome for those. Then, take the games that are fairly close to 50/50 and analyze those with a bit more effort.


The expected value in the number of wins gets skewed by these probabilities. A team that is an underdog in every game would surely have an O/U of 1 or 2, because any upset gives it a win.

Similarly for Duke. For the sake of concocting an example, lets assume that Duke is a mortal lock against Richmond and NCCU at home and against a highly disorganized Army team on the road. Lets assume that Duke is an underdog in the remaining conference and KU games. Surely the O/U should be something like 5 in that Duke is likely to pull off an upset or two with at least a 20% average chance of winning the other games.

And here's where you and I are differing. It has nothing to do with the logic - it's just a difference in opinion of the likelihood of victory against Army. I don't see Duke as anywhere near a mortal lock against Army. Perhaps if we were at home I'd highly favor them, but I won't take any road game for granted. I put it in the toss-up range for that reason, because Duke is still a work in progress and they're playing on the road.

If you are correct and Duke is a heavy favorite against Army, then I'd say Duke is highly favored to win 3 games, has two toss-up games, and is likely to lose the rest. In that scenario, 4 or 5 wins seems like the most reasonable outcome. Thus, I'd say an over/under of 4 or 4.5 would be perfectly reasonable. But since I instead consider Army a toss-up game, I said 3.5 or 4 was reasonable instead.

[sagegrouse]

Trust me, I don't need a lesson in probabilities. And these aren't completely random events. It is true that there is some variation in probability of outcome due to randomness, but we can estimate the true likelihood of victory in each game with some reasonable degree of accuracy. That's what I was trying to do in a simplified format - take the games in which the likelihood of victory is really small (or really large) and assume the probable dichotomous outcome for those. Then, take the games that are fairly close to 50/50 and analyze those with a bit more effort.



And here's where you and I are differing. It has nothing to do with the logic - it's just a difference in opinion of the likelihood of victory against Army. I don't see Duke as anywhere near a mortal lock against Army. Perhaps if we were at home I'd highly favor them, but I won't take any road game for granted. I put it in the toss-up range for that reason, because Duke is still a work in progress and they're playing on the road.

If you are correct and Duke is a heavy favorite against Army, then I'd say Duke is highly favored to win 3 games, has two toss-up games, and is likely to lose the rest. In that scenario, 4 or 5 wins seems like the most reasonable outcome. Thus, I'd say an over/under of 4 or 4.5 would be perfectly reasonable. But since I instead consider Army a toss-up game, I said 3.5 or 4 was reasonable instead.

CDu: The point of the post is as follows. If a team plays ten games as an underdog in each game (with an identical probability of win of 0.2 -- 4-1 odds), then a fair bet for the over/under is 2.0.

My statement about the Army game was strictly "as an example," not a statement of likely outcome.

BTW, football games are fully random events -- both the outcome and the score. The fact that football games typically have favorites don't mean they are less random.

sagegrouse

[CDu]

CDu: The point of the post is as follows. If a team plays ten games as an underdog in each game (with an identical probability of win of 0.2 -- 4-1 odds), then a fair bet for the over/under is 2.0.


I understand probabilities. My point is that I'd say Duke has much less than a 20% chance to win most of those other games. And they aren't a 100% lock to win those first few games.

Let's say Duke is an 80% favorite versus Richmond and a 99% favorite against NCCU. That's 1.79 predicted wins. Then let's say it's 50% against the three 'coinflip' games. That's 3.29 wins. That leaves seven games, of which I'd say we're less than a 10% chance to win. That's a probability of around 3.7 or 3.8 wins. So as I said, I think 3.5 or 4 wins is reasonable.

Now, if you think that we're a very high probability of winning against Army, then you're looking at between 4 and 4.5 wins predicted.

If you want to disagree on the degree to which we'll be not favored, that's fine. But my logic (based on the probability of victory which I think Duke has) is not flawed.

[sagegrouse]

I understand probabilities. My point is that I'd say Duke has much less than a 20% chance to win most of those other games. And they aren't a 100% lock to win those first few games.

Let's say Duke is an 80% favorite versus Richmond and a 99% favorite against NCCU. That's 1.79 predicted wins. Then let's say it's 50% against the three 'coinflip' games. That's 3.29 wins. That leaves seven games, of which I'd say we're less than a 10% chance to win. That's a probability of around 3.7 or 3.8 wins. So as I said, I think 3.5 or 4 wins is reasonable.

Now, if you think that we're a very high probability of winning against Army, then you're looking at between 4 and 4.5 wins predicted.

If you want to disagree on the degree to which we'll be not favored, that's fine. But my logic (based on the probability of victory which I think Duke has) is not flawed.

I dunno, CDu. It seems to me that the remaining seven games would have a higher average prob. of win than 0.1, given how this includes the three Big Four games, which have been down to the wire almost every time. And Kansas? That seems like a who wants it most game not a low prob. game. And Duke plays Miami tough. The Tech boys -- both @ home -- seem like a challenge, but we'll see.

Anyway, this is my last post on this thread -- and that's a promise not a threat.

sagegrouse
'I could be wrong about Army, but the Army team that took the field last December against its hated rival was the worst college football team I have seen since the Duke-WF rout in Durham that got Coach Frank fired'

[A-Tex Devil]

Duke is also a bit of a sucker bet I think. People remember 0-11 and see the 3.5 thinking it's Duke and bet under. The thing is -- if we schedule Navy or Vandy or some other middling D-1A team instead of 2 D-1AA teams, I think 3-3.5 is realistic. But by scheduling 2 I-AA teams, plus Army, plus us being a team on the rise (in our minds) coupled with some teams on potential declines next year (Wake, UVa, MD), 3.5 seems way low.

The only way in my mind that we don't get to 4 wins is if we go winless in the ACC. And if we go winless in the ACC, I'll be extremely, extremely disappointed.

[RelativeWays]

Duke SHOULD beat Richmond (revenge game) NCCU and Army (barring horrible play) I like Dukes chances against UMD and WFU, we are about equal talent wise with UVA but its in Virginia and they'll remember last year's beat down. I won't be surprised with 3 wins (though a tad disappointed) but I think 5 wins is possible. We were a shanked field goal kick away from 5 wins last year. This team is not as experienced but possibly more athletic and talented than last years. Hard to say what will happen.

[Mal]

I'd take the over here. I agree with sagegrouse that the probability of pulling upsets in games against teams well outside of any preseason Top 20 lists is significantly greater than we may be accounting for. Maryland, NCState, Miami, UVa - these appear to be middling teams, at best. Those sorts of teams lose games to evenly matched teams a lot, even at home. Conversely, the three teams many of us are putting in the "easy win" category seem to be really weak, and it's only three games as opposed to the 7 or so that we're expected to lose and have a chance to get an upset, so our likelihood of getting all three of those wins is significantly higher than the likelihood we get shut out elsewhere. With those wins would come momentum and confidence, so picking off UVa again, or pulling a mild upset over another middle of the pack ACC team wouldn't seem as much of a stretch.

Side question, for those suggesting that 3.5 or 4, or 4 or 4.5 may be the right O/U, can you have an O/U that falls on a whole number? That's going to lead to an awful lot of pushes if the team lands right on the number, isn't it?

[jimsumner]

"but I think 5 wins is possible. We were a shanked field goal kick away from 5 wins last year."

Duke was a shanked field goal and a holding penalty from six wins. And maybe an injured QB away from seven.

Duke has some question marks, mainly LB and producing a deep threat at WR. But this is not the Duke of Franks and Roof. Except for GT, Duke was competitive against everybody last year. I expect Duke to beat Army easily and I think Duke has the talent to play and beat UVA, Wake, and Maryland at the very least.

I think it would take a lot of injuries and bad luck to keep Duke at three wins. IMO.

[YourLandlord]

Side question, for those suggesting that 3.5 or 4, or 4 or 4.5 may be the right O/U, can you have an O/U that falls on a whole number? That's going to lead to an awful lot of pushes if the team lands right on the number, isn't it?

in that original post link, lots of teams with integer odds.

[RelativeWays]

"but I think 5 wins is possible. We were a shanked field goal kick away from 5 wins last year."

Duke was a shanked field goal and a holding penalty from six wins. And maybe an injured QB away from seven.

Duke has some question marks, mainly LB and producing a deep threat at WR. But this is not the Duke of Franks and Roof. Except for GT, Duke was competitive against everybody last year. I expect Duke to beat Army easily and I think Duke has the talent to play and beat UVA, Wake, and Maryland at the very least.

I think it would take a lot of injuries and bad luck to keep Duke at three wins. IMO.

I thought Duke did alright defensively against GT but couldn't get the offense going. The score was 10-0 at the end of the 3rd before GT opened it up in the 4th. Clemson dominated Duke from the coinflip and was really the only team to do so last year.

[jimsumner]

Right about Clemson. Forgot that one. Change QBs and who knows?

The thing I remember about GT is the feeling that Duke could have stayed out there all weekend without denting the end zone. I just never felt like Duke was in the game, regardless of what the scoreboard said. But that just may be me.

[PumpkinFunk]

I'd easily pick the over on this. Of course, I'm very optimistic in believing this is our year to shock the conference and win 7 games and go to a bowl game for the first time since 1994.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Bet the over.

[JasonEvans]

Bet the over.

Ozzie would tell you to bet the over if the number was 11 ;)

--Jason "I agree that the over is an very good looking bet here" Evans

[YourLandlord]

Ozzie would tell you to bet the over if the number was 11 ;)

--Jason "I agree that the over is an very good looking bet here" Evans

Anyone have a website that offers this? I use Sportsbook, and Duke is not listed.

[budwom]

The odds aren't designed to predict correctly, they're designed to balance the bets. Duke still doesn't get a whole lot of respect from the betting public, so it's not surprising that our over/under for wins looks pretty low. Perhaps those of us who follow Duke football know more about this team than the betting public. Or maybe not.

For all the gushing about how we were only x number of plays from five, six or seven wins last year, we also barely hung on to beat Vandy. So we were also one play away from three wins.

As optimistic as I am about the Cutcliffe era, I don't see this year as being a breakthrough year. We'll probably be underdogs in all but the Richmond, Army and NCCU games. Five wins is going to be fairly difficult.
If I had to bet, I'd say we'll get at least four wins, but the over/under is hardly a George Tenet slam dunk.

[Olympic Fan]

I understand the Vegas oddsmakers putting Duke's over/under at 3.5 -- based on a decade of futility that was only mildly mitigated by last season's four-win season.

I don't understand the pessimissm of so many Duke fans on this thread.

I happen to believe that last season's play in Coach Cutcliffe's first season at the helm should encourage us as to our chances at a number of ACC games. Again look at last year:

Substantial wins over James Madison (a top 1-AA team), Navy and Virginia, plus a narrow victory over a Vandy team that played in a bowl.

Plus:

-- Duke was one play (a holding penalty) away from beating a bowl-bound Northwestern team.

-- Duke was a shanked field goal and an OT loss away from beating a bowl-bound Wake Forest team.

-- Duke, playing without its starting QB, played ACC champion Virginia Tech evenly in Blacksburg for more than 58 minutes before a returned interception gave the Hokies a 14-3 win.

-- Duke missed on two fourth and inches plays inside the 15-yard line in a 27-17 loss to bowl-bound NC State.

That's four games that could have turned on one or two plays ... plays I'm expecting Cutcliffe's second team to make.

Of course, projecting anything is risky because you never know who is going to be healthy and who's not. North Carolina State was pretty tough last season when Russell Wilson was healthy (as he was against Duke), but offensively impotent when Wilson was hurt. UNC was a much tougher team with TJ Yates (healthy for the Duke game) than they were at midseason without him.

Yeah, Duke should be heavily favored over Richmond, NCCU and Army (just to be clear, Army has been a MUCH worse team than Duke in recent years. This is a team that lost to Navy 38-3 in 2007 and 34-0 last year to a Navy team that Duke manhandled; last season, they lost to Temple by 28 points, to New Hampshire by 18 and to Akron by 19).

But I don't see why it's so hard to see Duke upsetting Virginia (a team Duke beat last year), Wake Forest (a team Duke lost to in OT, despite outgaining), Virginia Tech, UNC, Maryland or N.C. State. Based on last year's performance I don't see where 4-1 odds are warrented -- Duke should be no worse than 2-1 or maybe a 3-2 underdog against those six games. Duke SHOULD win one of those six games, probably two.

The other three will be tough. Georgia Tech is in its second year under Johnson and although they have to replace their great defensive front, they should have an awesome ground game. We don't have to play Clemson, but we get Miami in Miami. Interesting matchup with a talent with a lot of talent but a very shakey coaching situation. And with Marve gone, they are very dependent on Harris staying healthy (and he's a runner, like Wilson).

My over/under? I think 5-7 is Duke's most likely finish -- I say the Devils beat Richmond, NCCU and Army ... plus two ACC wins out of Maryland, Virginia, UNC, N.C. State and Wake Forest.

[Bob Green]

My over/under? I think 5-7 is Duke's most likely finish -- I say the Devils beat Richmond, NCCU and Army ... plus two ACC wins out of Maryland, Virginia, UNC, N.C. State and Wake Forest.

I agree with OF's 5-7 prediction with 6-6 not being out of the question. I'm betting :D Duke will beat Maryland on October 24th.

[formerdukeathlete]

The odds aren't designed to predict correctly, they're designed to balance the bets. Duke still doesn't get a whole lot of respect from the betting public, so it's not surprising that our over/under for wins looks pretty low. Perhaps those of us who follow Duke football know more about this team than the betting public. Or maybe not.

For all the gushing about how we were only x number of plays from five, six or seven wins last year, we also barely hung on to beat Vandy. So we were also one play away from three wins.

As optimistic as I am about the Cutcliffe era, I don't see this year as being a breakthrough year. We'll probably be underdogs in all but the Richmond, Army and NCCU games. Five wins is going to be fairly difficult.
If I had to bet, I'd say we'll get at least four wins, but the over/under is hardly a George Tenet slam dunk.

budwom, our recruiting is not on the levels it was, say in 1986 (top ten recruiting class) which lead to winning the ACC championship in 89. Folks say that we should beat Maryland, Virginia, Wake because of talent this coming year, yet, in the last couple of years, UVa and Maryland have recruited more talent. In 08 Maryland, Virginia and Wake were ahead of Duke

http://www.duke.rivals.com/teamrank.asp?Year=2008&Page=3&PosType=0&Sort=0

In 09 Maryland and Viriginai were ahead of Duke

http://www.duke.rivals.com/teamrank.asp?Year=2008&Page=3&PosType=0&Sort=0

In 06, 2 of the 3 had higher ranked recruiting classes.

http://www.duke.rivals.com/teamrank.asp?Year=2006&Page=3&Type=0&Sort=0

Lets, we will hope for the best. ACC wins will be tough.

I think we have a shot against Miami this year, based on coaching.

[sagegrouse]

So, I guess his over/under for Duke is at least seven, in that we can only count one FCS game against the win total.

Linkety-linky-link. (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=204766055)

sagegrouse

[Atldukie79]

Based on watching a lot of D1AA (yeah, I know the name changed) it is rather obvious to me that Army is significantly less talented than Richmond. The top 5 D1AA teams would likely run circles around Army.

That said, and though I am concerned about our O line this year...I fully expect wins against NCCU and ARMY. I believe Cut will have the team ready to beat Richmond, who may lose only 2 or 3 games this year.

If you can believe the positive spin out of the Duke camp that the continuity in coaching, confidence and conditioning has improved...we are but a competent kicker away from 5 or 6 wins.

[jimsumner]

"we are but a competent kicker away from 5 or 6 wins"

Nick Maggio missed a big FG that would have won the Wake game. But he was 28-28 on PATS last year, 11-14 on FGs. That's way more than competent in my book.

Nick Jones also is one of the top returning punters in the ACC. Paul Asack should adequately replace Surgan as the kickoff guy.

I'm not trying to be difficult here, but were you paying attention last year? The improvement in Duke's special teams last year was stunning and there is no reason not to expect that to continue this season.

[Atldukie79]

Jim,

Yes, I paid attention to last year. I will pay attention to this year too!

Let me clarify...my reference to "kicker" should have been more specific... I meant "field goal kicker". I am well aware that we lost one game last year when a field goal went awry (Not a "gimmee"). I also know that we were greatly improved over the prior year in that area.

But in no way was I equating better kicking this year (field goal or otherwise) as the only reason we might win 5-6 games as your post implies by highlighting the kicker reference only.

The last sentence in my post was a series of improvements that could help lead to 5 or 6 wins this year. Confidence, coaching, conditioning AND better (field goal) kicking might lead us to more wins. Several games each year are invariably tied to field goal kicking...and often clutch field goal kicking. I believe we need to convert in those end game situations to further improve.

That is something I don't recall Duke doing in recent years.

BTW, I always enjoy your comments Jim.

[jimsumner]

" Several games each year are invariably tied to field goal kicking...and often clutch field goal kicking. I believe we need to convert in those end game situations to further improve.
That is something I don't recall Duke doing in recent years."

Duke made a number of clutch FGs last year. Joe Surgan's 54-yard bomb at the end of the first half v. Navy stopped a run and gave Duke some Mo at intermission.

Nick Maggio tied the Virginia game late in the first half 3-3, giving Duke momentum for a big second half; Maggio's 42-yard FG late in the third period at Vandy put Duke up 10-0 and provided the margin of victory in a 10-7 win. Maggio also made important FGs in losses to Northwestern, Miami, NCSU, VT, and UNC, FGs that didn't stop losses but were clutch at the time.

In the matter of a few months, Cutcliffe and his special teams coaches turned Duke's kicking game from a liability to an asset. I'm a lot more worried about depth, linebackers, and offensive line than I am the kicking game and that's something I haven't felt since the Lenhardt/Morton days.