Two-year Outlook for Duke MBB

[mgtr]

Folks-
Lets get back to the real deal here. What do think the outlook is for Duke over the next two years -- I think very good for 07-08, regardless of PP, and excellent for 08-09. What think you????

[captmojo]

Don't want to lay any curses on the kid but I see a similarity to Larry Bird here. From what little I've seen of him he looks like he has basketball court knowledge like Bird had. I mean knowing how to best use his size and skills to be at the right spot at the right time. Of course having an excellent eye for the basket is a definite plus.
Better play from the Sophomore class and experience of Paulus, this team is back on top for the foreseeable future.

[Lord Ash]

I agree that even if PP doesn't come to Duke, 08-09 could be a championship year. I know it sounds crazy, but I also have very high hopes (Great Eight) for next year, particularly if PP shows up in a Duke uniform.

[Jaymf7]

Don't want to lay any curses on the kid but I see a similarity to Larry Bird here. From what little I've seen of him he looks like he has basketball court knowledge like Bird had.

No disrespect, but I always have a tough time with these superstar comparisons (often involving Jordan or Bird, depending on race). While Kyle may have a similar skill set, versatility and basketball IQ to Bird, that is not what made Bird legendary (just like Jordan's athleticism was not his most important asset). When I think of Bird, I think of that "nastiness" factor. Bird, at times described as a dirty player, had that undeniable drive to win and repeatedly willed his teams to victory. Ditto Jordan (and for Duke alumni, I'd say Laettner).

Without that most exceptional trait, a player with exceptional skills may end up as a Dunleavy, or more recently, a McRoberts (which is not bad at all). Obviously, if Kyle is like either of these players he will be a tremendous addition. The Bird comparison is just not founded until we see what Kyle does when we are down by 2 with the ball and 30 seconds left at UNC next year (they haven't taken away that home and home yet, have they?). Some of Kyle's video clips show a fire inside, and if he has 1/10 of the Bird/Jordan killer instinct we will be in phenomenal shape.

That said, I cannot wait to see a full game of Zou shutting down Hansbro like he did for a good chunk of the game in Cameron this year (have I lost it now?).

[yancem]

Don't want to lay any curses on the kid but I see a similarity to Larry Bird here. From what little I've seen of him he looks like he has basketball court knowledge like Bird had. I mean knowing how to best use his size and skills to be at the right spot at the right time. Of course having an excellent eye for the basket is a definite plus.
Better play from the Sophomore class and experience of Paulus, this team is back on top for the foreseeable future.

I think that Adam Morrison might be a better (and more realistic) comparison. I think that Singler is a little more athletic but watching some of the clips on youtube reminded me a little of Morrison.

[houstondukie]

Duke could have potentially one of its best teams ever in 2008-2009. Key word being "potentially." If Duke signs Greg Monroe, doesn't lose anyone early to the NBA (Demarcus Nelson will be the only loss), and our recruits, especially Singler, live up to the hype, we will be loaded:

C Greg Monroe FR.
PF Kyle Singler SO.
SF Gerald Henderson JR.
SG Jon Scheyer JR.
PG Greg Paulus SR.

Bench:

PG/SG Nolan Smith SO.
PF Lance Thomas JR.
C Brian Zoubek JR.
PF Dave McClure SR.
SF/PF Taylor King SO.
SG Martynas Pocious SR.

We would also have 2 more scholarships (1 if PP signs).

This team has depth at every position, experience, size and athleticism. I don't want to overlook next year, becuase I think we will be a good team, but 2008-2009 could be really special.

[NYC Duke Fan]

I agree that even if PP doesn't come to Duke, 08-09 could be a championship year. I know it sounds crazy, but I also have very high hopes (Great Eight) for next year, particularly if PP shows up in a Duke uniform.

But who is going to rebound next year? Where will the interior defense come from ? Who is going to prevent the penetrating guard from penetrating ? Who is going to make free throws ? ( JJ where art thou ?)

[Patrick Yates]

Duke could have potentially one of its best teams ever in 2008-2009. Key word being "potentially." If Duke signs Greg Monroe, doesn't lose anyone early to the NBA (Demarcus Nelson will be the only loss), and our recruits, especially Singler, live up to the hype, we will be loaded:

C Greg Monroe FR.
PF Kyle Singler SO.
SF Gerald Henderson JR.
SG Jon Scheyer JR.
PG Greg Paulus SR.

Bench:

PG/SG Nolan Smith SO.
PF Lance Thomas JR.
C Brian Zoubek JR.
PF Dave McClure SR.
SF/PF Taylor King SO.
SG Martynas Pocious SR.

We would also have 2 more scholarships (1 if PP signs).

This team has depth at every position, experience, size and athleticism. I don't want to overlook next year, becuase I think we will be a good team, but 2008-2009 could be really special.


Unfortunately, I do not think your starting 5 (which would be great) will ever come to pass. That is a best case scenario, which I find unliekly.

I believe we will get Greg Monroe (plus another PF and a WG), so I agree there. Caveat: Roe was a LOCK for UNC up to a week ago, and then shocked the world to stay near home. By the end of next year, LSU will be desperate for GM, in a way that Duke won't be. If he doesn't sign in the early period it could get dicey by the end of the year.

However, my real concern for your listed starting 5 are Singler and Henderson. We will rely on both these guys heavily next year. If they deliver, the pros could come calling.

I beleive GH is a real threat to leave. At 6-5, and arround 205-210 right now, he is close to being pysically ready. With a good summer in the gym, he could easily be in the 215 plus range, putting him at ideal size for NBA SG, especially with his athleticism. His midrange J looked good this year, and if he proves he can consistently knock down the three and get to the rack, his stock will be sky high next year.

Singler is less likely to go. I beleive that the NBA is getting wary of guys like Dunleavy, who are good at a lot of things, but are great at none. Not that Dun is a failure, but that he has not excelled to the point that many of us (and the L) thought that he would. I agree with the above poster who urged caution with Singler. Much depends on his physical development this summer.

KS appears to have many of the tools needed to succeed. If his drive is present, he will only need to showcase two things to be valuable to the pros. First and foremost is the physical aspect. Right now he is 6-9 and 215 (looks closer to 205 but whatever). If he is able to get up to around 220 this summer, he will answer questions about his size, because he would easily be able to get up to arround 225 -230 for the draft, which is approximately what Shane weighed when he went pro. Secondly, KS must prove to be a lights out shooter a la Morrison (doesn't have to score as much, but rather hit a good percentage of shots, and a reasonably high number of them). This will counter the Dunleavy criticism of doesn't excell in any one area.

If KS can shoot, and therefore score, well, the rest of his game will be attractive. His passing and D look good already, and I beleive he will be at least a capable rebounder.

Regarding KS and GH, we are in something of a Catch-22 as Duke fans. In order for the team to succeed next year (a la the elite 8 as many hope for) both these guys have to play well, more than likely. DM (graduates) and/or JS (less likely to leave due to questions regarding athleticsm) could be the team scoring leaders, which would bring GH and KS back, but I beleive one or the other of KS and GH will blow up next year.

However, if KS and GH perform to the level that many here hope/expect, they will be very attractive to the pros. I beleive that GH is more likely to perform to our expectations/be physically ready, but next year is theoretically a guard heavy year, which might force him back to school.

But, if one or the other explodes next year, they may not be here for 08-09. I believe K is targeting kids who can replace one or both of them, almost as if he expects/worries that one or the other will leave. If next year is better than we expect right now, the year after that, while better than next year, might be less than we hope for this year.

Patrick Yates

[captmojo]

Our old high school coach gave us his theory on free throws and very seldom does it fail to be true.It goes like this.......
If you take the number of free throws missed over the course of a game ...
(example 10), if the team had made half of those missed, this difference is usually the difference on the scoreboard resulting in loss.
Champions usually are successful at the line.

[SMO]

If that's our team in 08/09 I think our bench would be a top 25 team by itself. This team would be redickulous.


Duke could have potentially one of its best teams ever in 2008-2009. Key word being "potentially." If Duke signs Greg Monroe, doesn't lose anyone early to the NBA (Demarcus Nelson will be the only loss), and our recruits, especially Singler, live up to the hype, we will be loaded:

C Greg Monroe FR.
PF Kyle Singler SO.
SF Gerald Henderson JR.
SG Jon Scheyer JR.
PG Greg Paulus SR.

Bench:

PG/SG Nolan Smith SO.
PF Lance Thomas JR.
C Brian Zoubek JR.
PF Dave McClure SR.
SF/PF Taylor King SO.
SG Martynas Pocious SR.

We would also have 2 more scholarships (1 if PP signs).

This team has depth at every position, experience, size and athleticism. I don't want to overlook next year, becuase I think we will be a good team, but 2008-2009 could be really special.

[SilkyJ]

I believe K is targeting kids who can replace one or both of them, almost as if he expects/worries that one or the other will leave.

Patrick Yates

I agree with most of what you said Patrick, but especially with this statement. I am of the opinion (I'm sure I'm not the only one) that K is adjusting his philosophy a little b/c of early entries to the L. We were spoiled for a while as literally no one EVER left Duke early until the exodus of '99. I think K was assuming that he would get 3-4 years out of just about everyone, which would mean he would only have to "reload" every couple of years, and in between just recruit one or two kids:

97 Brand, Burgess, Battier, Avery
98 Maggette
99 Jwill, boozer, dun
00 Duhon
01 Ewing
02 JJ, Sheld, M thompson, Lee Melch, Dock
03 Deng, and Humphries who didn't make it
04 DMarc and Mcclure, and Livingston who didn't make it

Then when Humphries and livingston didn't make it and deng left after one year k realized this could easily turn into a pattern, and therefore a problem. So he changes his philosophy up and is just going to reload every year, or at least more often:

05 Greg, Josh, Marty, Jamal, Boateng
06 Scheyer, Gerald, Zoubek, Lance
07 Singler, King, Smith, hopefully PP

Anyway, I believe that this is the reason we haven't won since '01, and people are all over Coach K. You've got to imagine that if we had Deng playing with JJ and sheld for 2 more seasons we would have had a good shot.

The game has changed and Coach K is adjusting and we have to hope his new philosophy will work. And since we're talking about one of the greatest coaches of all time, I see no reason why you would bet against him.

[ikiru36]

I think that Adam Morrison might be a better (and more realistic) comparison. I think that Singler is a little more athletic but watching some of the clips on youtube reminded me a little of Morrison.

Well, I suppose I hope you are right and I hope you are wrong too. While Morrison was a tremendous shooter and has an impressively varied offensive arsenal, he is a poor defender and rebounder given his size (not an especially good passer either). What I've seen of Singler demonstrates a superior (and potentially excellent) feel for the game at both ends of the court, along with a good shooting touch, under-rated athleticism, body control, and all-around hoops skill. In terms of style of play, I'd still make Bird (or more recently, say, Al Harrington or Dirk Nowitzki?) a better comparison than Morrison.

But, all talent/skill comparisons aside, the key is that ability to maintain absolute focus and intensity along with an unquenchable need to be the best. The elite level of that ability seems to come along but once every few years, making any early predictions of "the next" Bird, Jordan, Russell, relatively pointless (while undeniably fun!)

Still, I'll gladly "settle" for a guy with a high talent level and similar size/skill set as Bird, but "only" 1/2 his passion to succeed and other intangibles.

(BTW, in all earnestness, I've simply never been a big fan of Morrison's game, though I give him mad respect for his hard work and accomplishments, especially given his battles with Type I Diabetes.)

Go Kyle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[houstondukie]

If Singler or Henderson or both leave after next year, 2008-2009 will still be a very strong team, although obvioulsy not as great with them. By their junior seasons, Lance Thomas and especially Brian Zoubek will be beasts down low. With Greg Monroe hopefully in the mix (along with McClure and King), I don't think we'll be hurting up front at all.

We will however be missing that versatile, athletic wing player if we lose both Singler and Henderson, but I'm hopeful that K will bring in a replacement with the several scholarships remaining.

If the best case scenario does play out, every player in our starting lineup in 2008-2009 could potentially be selected first team All-ACC.

[Clipsfan]

But who is going to rebound next year? Where will the interior defense come from ? Who is going to prevent the penetrating guard from penetrating ? Who is going to make free throws ? ( JJ where art thou ?)

FTs should be the easy one... Jon is an excellent FT shooter (high 80s) and Paulus should be at least 80% next year. That's about as solid as it gets in college ball. As for the rest, I think that we'll need to see whether PP comes, and what the starting lineup will look like.

[LetItBD08]

03 Deng, and Humphries and Livingston who didn't make it
04 DMarc and Mcclure

Livingston would have been in the class with Dave and Demarcus.

[yancem]

Anyway, I believe that this is the reason we haven't won since '01, and people are all over Coach K. You've got to imagine that if we had Deng playing with JJ and sheld for 2 more seasons we would have had a good shot.

The game has changed and Coach K is adjusting and we have to hope his new philosophy will work. And since we're talking about one of the greatest coaches of all time, I see no reason why you would bet against him.

I think that part of K's new strategy is also to balance some of the studs with 4 year players who may not contribute as much right off the bat. For every McRoberts, Henderson and Singler he's trying to bring in a Boykins, Zoubec or King. Up until recently, he has never really used all of the available scholarships. Unfortunately, he may have to adjust his coaching style and play a deeper bench or we may see many of the projected 4 year guys transfer (see Boykins, Boateng, Thomas, et al.)

[yancem]

Well, I suppose I hope you are right and I hope you are wrong too. While Morrison was a tremendous shooter and has an impressively varied offensive arsenal, he is a poor defender and rebounder given his size (not an especially good passer either). What I've seen of Singler demonstrates a superior (and potentially excellent) feel for the game at both ends of the court, along with a good shooting touch, under-rated athleticism, body control, and all-around hoops skill. In terms of style of play, I'd still make Bird (or more recently, say, Al Harrington or Dirk Nowitzki?) a better comparison than Morrison.

But, all talent/skill comparisons aside, the key is that ability to maintain absolute focus and intensity along with an unquenchable need to be the best. The elite level of that ability seems to come along but once every few years, making any early predictions of "the next" Bird, Jordan, Russell, relatively pointless (while undeniably fun!)

Still, I'll gladly "settle" for a guy with a high talent level and similar size/skill set as Bird, but "only" 1/2 his passion to succeed and other intangibles.

(BTW, in all earnestness, I've simply never been a big fan of Morrison's game, though I give him mad respect for his hard work and accomplishments, especially given his battles with Type I Diabetes.)

Go Kyle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



My comparison was more on the offensive side. The way he dribbles into the lane or his pull up jumper. I agree that his defense should be better and that he is more athletic. You may be right with Dirk being a better comparison it's just that when I watch Singler I see Morrison. It may be more of an aesthetic thing.

[SilkyJ]

I think that part of K's new strategy is also to balance some of the studs with 4 year players who may not contribute as much right off the bat. For every McRoberts, Henderson and Singler he's trying to bring in a Boykins, Zoubec or King. Up until recently, he has never really used all of the available scholarships. Unfortunately, he may have to adjust his coaching style and play a deeper bench or we may see many of the projected 4 year guys transfer (see Boykins, Boateng, Thomas, et al.)

Agreed. Although I would imagine that this has always been part of his strategy.

[mgtr]

From what I saw, I don't think that Boykins or Boateng was a huge loss. On the other hand, I would hate to lose Thomas or Zoubek, who have yet to show a lot, but have great potential.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Boateng and Boykin had potential too. But to many Duke fans they weren't "huge losses" once they had transferred. It wouldn't surprise me to see Boateng become a star at AZ State and Boykin become a star at Cal.

If Patterson doesn't enroll at Duke, many will wish that Boateng was available to play the "5" for Duke next season.

[kydevil]

In regards to the Singler comparisons how can we really know who to compare him to... Morrison coming out of high school could barely walk and chew gum at the same time but became a great player. Larry Bird I mean come on thats putting just a little pressure on Singler. It's not fair to singler to compare him to Bird. However I do see a little of Morrison in him, with Singler being a MUCH better athlete.... Kyle's athleticism is underrated due to his skin color...:(

[mapei]

I find it so hard to believe people are still posting as if Patterson may come to Duke. I have absolutely no inside information but, from everything objective I have read, the chances of that happening are less than 5% and getting lower.

Personally, I was sorry to see Boateng and Boykins go. True, they didn't show a lot in their freshman season, but I don't like it when recruits don't work out. I feel *almost* the same about Marty, but at least he's still in the program and neither he nor Duke has completely given up on the other.

As for Zoubek, I haven't seen all the upside that others apparently see. This year I mostly saw a big, awkward kid who doesn't fit too well with Duke's usual style of play. (My hope is that he is another Roy Hibbert, who looked lost and just as awkward in his freshman year but blossomed into an all-conference player by his junior season.) I *did* see more promise in Thomas, and have hopes for him developing into a solid player.

I wish I did feel like we had a shot at Patterson, because the guy seems like a stud to me. But I'd bet a lot of money (OK, a little money) on that not happening.

[Bob Green]

I have zero feeling for whether Patterson is coming or not coming. I hope he comes. Duke will be much stronger with him. However, I do believe we will be okay next year without him. Thomas and Zoubek both have the potential to be much improved next year. McClure and Nelson are both strong rebounders. Singler is 6'9" and has demonstrated versatility at the high school level and should be able to transfer his skills to the collegiate level. I see Singler as a one-for-one replacement for McRoberts. But the real wild card, in my opinion, is Taylor King. He is 6'8" and averaged double digit rebounds in high school. I believe he has the ability to be a strong presence on the defensive boards in Duke's system. IMO, some people are under-estimating his potential. If Patterson goes elsewhere, Taylor King can and will play significant minutes next year.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[whereinthehellami]

I have zero feeling for whether Patterson is coming or not coming. I hope he comes. Duke will be much stronger with him. However, I do believe we will be okay next year without him. Thomas and Zoubek both have the potential to be much improved next year. McClure and Nelson are both strong rebounders. Singler is 6'9" and has demonstrated versatility at the high school level and should be able to transfer his skills to the collegiate level. I see Singler as a one-for-one replacement for McRoberts. But the real wild card, in my opinion, is Taylor King. He is 6'8" and averaged double digit rebounds in high school. I believe he has the ability to be a strong presence on the defensive boards in Duke's system. IMO, some people are under-estimating his potential. If Patterson goes elsewhere, Taylor King can and will play significant minutes next year.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

I can't wait to watch Singler and think that he is going to be special. But saying that he will replace McRoberts from day one without Duke losing anything is asking too much, especially on the defensive end. Josh wasn't great at Defense but he was an imposing shotblocker to say the least, that presence is gone. When you're a small, somewhat slow team that is getting beaten off the dribble it helps to have a shotblocking athlete hanging around the basket. That is now gone unless Zoubek steps up in a major way but I think Zoobs will need at least another year before he is able to react at ACC-level speed.

As far as King goes I think he can get some minutes next year as an offensive guy but think that he is going to really struggle on the defensive side of the ball and we all know how Coach K feels about that. I'd love for him to be a suprise in the frontcourt, especially with regards to rebounding but from the limited times I have seen him (and read scouting on him) he has some real quickness and reaction issues that will be a problem for him as a freshman in the ACC.

[dball]

[QUOTE=mapei;17169]
Personally, I was sorry to see Boateng and Boykins go. True, they didn't show a lot in their freshman season, but I don't like it when recruits don't work out. QUOTE]


I regret those transfers too, but kids leave for all sorts of reasons. Boateng was raw but had a lot of potential. Boykins play was infectious and I always enjoyed his enthusiasm. Wish the best for both.

[dukestheheat]

well,

i'm not trying to harvest any sour grapes or anything like that, but.....unless we do secure a very strong inside player (or, low post player) i do believe that, like this year, Duke will still struggle next year.

the PG position should deepen with Nolan Smith coming in, and then there are the shooters in King, Scheyer and Singler, along with the veterans, but again I do believe it is going to hing on whether or not we land that coveted low post/big to help balance us out and shore up our inside game.

So come on big fella and sign with the Blue Devils.

dth.

[gw67]

There is a lot of optimism in this thread. Some of it is a little over the top, IMO, but it certainly beats the “sky is falling” view of some folks. My thoughts on next year’s team are as follows:

The strength of the team will be its’ perimeter players – Paulus, Nelson, Scheyer, Henderson, Smith and Pocius. I expect four of these players to play 25+ minutes per game. The only set of perimeter players in the ACC that may be better is Georgia Tech’s – Crittenton, Young, Clinch, Morrow, Miller and Bell (and the transfer from Georgetown).

The weakness at the beginning of the season will be the frontcourt – Zoubek, McClure, Thomas, Singler and King. How this group of young players develops may determine how well the Devils do next year. At this time, I expect only Singler to play 25+ minutes per game. On paper, the frontcourts of UNC, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, and Clemson appear to be better, IMO.

Some thoughts on a few individual players:

Paulus – During the last six weeks of the season, he averaged over 17ppg. I expect for he and Nelson to lead the team in scoring next year and for him to continue to be the starting point guard with some help from Smith.

Scheyer – I expect him to improve and to start most games. He is a good ballhandler and passer, one of the best outside shooters on the team, a decent defensive player, and an outstanding foul shooter. I expect his minutes to come down slightly to accommodate Henderson and Smith.

Nelson – He is a tough defensive player and rebounder, who has improved his jump shot in the past couple of years. He is still a weak ballhandler and foul shooter and I can only hope he improves in these areas. I expect him to average around 15ppg and to be counted on to rebound and to sometimes guard bigger players.

Henderson – He is being counted on by most fans to improve his play significantly. I expect him to be the first player off the bench as a sub for either Nelson, Scheyer or Singler. He needs to improve in several areas, including shooting from the outside and the foul line, ballhandling and passing. Like Maggette, there is a significant “wow” factor in his game.

Singler – At 6-9, he will forced to play in the frontcourt next year although it appears that he would be an excellent wing. He is reputed to be a very good all around player but the team will depend on him for rebounding, scoring and defensive play against some big frontcourt players in the ACC – Costner, Gist, Thompson/Stevenson, Booker, Smith/Lawal, and Allen. I hope that he emulates Deng and/or Alarie.

Overall, I think the Devils will do well and will finish in the top 1/3 of the league.

gw67

[steely2400]

I'm not sure about this. I have a sense of Deja Vu all over again. This feels like 97 to me. We had Newton, he started the season out but then lost favor. We ended up with Rashawn Mcloud playing major minutes up front and getting banged around. Will this year be the same with Singler? I can see him playing the 5 for whatever reason. I think we will be able to compete but will get killed on the boards in many games. I really hope Lance or Zoub step up next year but realistically I don't know if they have it in them. I think they will give the effort, I'm not sure if the talent is there.

I see us as a somewhat unathletic outside shooting team. We should be improved over last year with KS and King to where we have more than 1 outside threat. Just once I want to hit lightening in a bottle and end up with a Durant, a big who can dominate and has some hops. I guess I don't have much room to complain, we did end up with EB.

[mgtr]

gw67-
Please don't underrate McClure. Before he hurt his knee, he had worked into the starting lineup. He is mainly defensive, but he plays a whole lot taller than his size. We will need that next year (or, perhaps I should say this year!).

[houstondukie]

Do we really think PP is the answer to our frontcourt problems next year? Is he really going to be better than Lance Thomas or Brian Zoubek after they've had a season under their belts and an offseason to get stronger? It's not like Lance and Brian weren't highly touted recruits. While neither was ranked as high as PP, Lance was still a McDonald's AA and Brian was top 25-30 recruit. While I would love to get PP, I think there's also a lot of hype around him due to him taking so long to sign. I'm not expecting him to be difference between a solid season and a FF season. I think the development of the frontcourt players we already have will determine that.

[Houston]

PP is that important to the program. PP will be better by the end of the season than Zoubek ever will be. While PP does not guarantee a FF, he should be the difference between the round of 32 and sweet 16. Although KS is a great prospect, Josh leaves some very big shoes to fill.

[ikiru36]

PP is that important to the program. PP will be better by the end of the season than Zoubek ever will be. While PP does not guarantee a FF, he should be the difference between the round of 32 and sweet 16. Although KS is a great prospect, Josh leaves some very big shoes to fill.

I agree that Patrick Patterson would help our front court depth a lot next year, probably playing a lot of minutes, making us a definite Top 10 team and Top 5 in '08-'09. However, I'm not a big fan of the put-down of Zoubek as:

#1: It lacks any analysis whatsoever.
#2: Whatever analysis might be provided, likely ignores Brian's potential. I know that many were frustrated with some of Brian's play this past year, but he is a true 7 footer who was young for his class (allowing more room than most to increase strength/bulk), has shown decent hands and touch, and is athletic enough to run the court or get down in defensive stance.
#3: Even if a valid guess, it is an unnecessary, negative and non-constructive statement about a Duke player (whom I'm yet to hear a poor word about as regards effort or character), and this board may be read by players/family/friends/recruits more than one might realize.

I, for one, think that Brian and Lance are likely to step up more than many expect, should Patrick not choose Duke. Nevertheless, I think that Patrick would be a great addition as a talent unto himself, but also as regards depth and as another player to challenge Lance and Brian to improve everyday in practice (and they, in turn, would benefit his development).

I certainly agree that Josh's leaving means we will look dramatically different as a team next year because, while Singler is perhaps a similar degree of talent, their games are simply different.

I agree that, without Patrick, unless Brian and Lance are both able to add considerable strength (and, as it turns out, Lance was also young for his class) while one of them develops an imposing interior presence, we will have an exploitable weakness on the inside. Nevertheless, our depth and skill elsewhere should still make us a difficult out, exciting to watch and fun to see develop.

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[yancem]

I agree that Patrick Patterson would help our front court depth a lot next year, probably playing a lot of minutes, making us a definite Top 10 team and Top 5 in '08-'09. However, I'm not a big fan of the put-down of Zoubek as:

#1: It lacks any analysis whatsoever.

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading posts on how imposing UNC's front line will be even if they lost Wright and Hansbrough because Thompson and Stepheson are going to be so good. That they are so much better than Thomas and Zoubek. Yet when you look at the numbers I don't see it. Thomas and Zoubec averaged a combined 22.2 minutes, 4.7 rebounds and 7.1 points while Thompson and Stepheson averaged 18.8 minutes, 4.6 rebounds and 6.8 points.

I will grant that the UNC duo almost matched Duke's duo in rebounds and points in 3.4 fewer minutes and that they had more competion for playing time and shots. But you can also argue that since UNC averaged 15 more points a game that they had more opportunities to score.

You also have to keep in mind that both Thomas and Zoubek were more highly rated than either of the two UNC players. I know that recuiting rankings are not terribly reliable but they do hold some water. Both of Duke's front court players had a couple of big games and I really believe that if they both can add a little muscle and Thomas can cut down on his fouls and Zoubek can learn to hold his pivot foot then they will be much improved next year. Certainly they have the potential to develop at least as much as UNC's freshman and according to some of that post on this site that could translate into really good things.

[Indoor66]

It amazes me to read the board. I hear how great our incoming players are (or about the "Saviour" just over the next letter of intent); how deficient our current players are; and how superior to us are the players on other teams.

How come our great recruits "fall off" after coming to Duke - when they haven't played and we haven't given them a chance?

In my 46+ years of watching Duke Basketball I have seen a lot of players come in with big reps and have so-so careers and others come in and far outperform their expectations.

With 18 year olds, I think you have to let them develop and mature. Most of the time I have been pleasantly surprised; sometimes mildly disappointed. I don't ever remember being ashamed of a Duke BB player.

[mgtr]

Indoor 66-
Plus, add Coach K into the mix and sometimes magic occurs. I am satisfied that he and has staff have the expertise to pick the right players. I was not thrilled with the performance of Zoubek and Thomas this year, but I am betting they will be much, much better next year. Duke is fortunate in not having to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear -- they only have to make a silk purse from a whole bunch of silkworms!

[Bob Green]

I also do not understand the negativity toward Thomas and Zoubek by some posters. Thomas and Zoubek will both be much improved next year. IMO, Thomas will be an integral member of the rotation while Zoubek will need another year to develop. As far as long term potential, Zoubek has the biggest upside of any of our inside players due to his size. I expect him to develop into a dominate player for his Junior and Senior seasons.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[Bud]

I also think that Thomas and Zoubec will be very good player at Duke. Give these guys some time by the time these guys are seniores they will be huge for Duke. Also if we get Monroe and Gordan in 08 along with Thomas and Zoubec that will be the best frontcourt in college basketball.

[Houston]

[QUOTE=ikiru36;17374]#1: It lacks any analysis whatsoever.
#2: Whatever analysis might be provided, likely ignores Brian's potential. I know that many were frustrated with some of Brian's play this past year, but he is a true 7 footer who was young for his class (allowing more room than most to increase strength/bulk), has shown decent hands and touch, and is athletic enough to run the court or get down in defensive stance.
#3: Even if a valid guess, it is an unnecessary, negative and non-constructive statement about a Duke player (whom I'm yet to hear a poor word about as regards effort or character), and this board may be read by players/family/friends/recruits more than one might realize.

I hope I am wrong. Brian's averages in the last 10 games (tougher competition and more important games) regressed: .3 ppg, 1.4 rpg, .3 bpg and .7 topg. Although PP has not played a minute of college basketball, I think the ceiling is higher. I base this on HS resume (tougher competition), strength and athleticism. The Duke players with high ceilings contribute as freshmen and finish the season on a diferent trajectory. This is especially true of the 4s and 5s.

[Waynne]

It's silly to be negative about Lance and Zoubec at this point. Both were young kids mixing it up with elite, experienced players, and it was not realistic to expect either to be stars right out of the gate.

Both have a lot of potential, and whether they realize it depends on how hard each is willing to work on becoming bigger and stronger, on improving the weaknesses in their games, and on learning what it takes to become an elite player in the ACC. They both seem like good kids with a lot of heart and desire, and my bet is that each will put in the necessary effort.

Zoubec in particular has the size to be an outstanding player if he can get stronger and more coordinated and develop his game around the basket. His size bothered Hans a lot in one of the UNC games, and if Z can learn to utilize that w/ low-post footwork, he will be very good.

If PP does not come both should get a fair amount of PT, and that will help them. Even w/ PP, I think it likely each will play at least as much as they did this year.

[CMS2478]

well,

i'm not trying to harvest any sour grapes or anything like that, but.....unless we do secure a very strong inside player (or, low post player) i do believe that, like this year, Duke will still struggle next year.

the PG position should deepen with Nolan Smith coming in, and then there are the shooters in King, Scheyer and Singler, along with the veterans, but again I do believe it is going to hing on whether or not we land that coveted low post/big to help balance us out and shore up our inside game.

So come on big fella and sign with the Blue Devils.

dth.

I think Patterson helps a lot, but at least if we don't get them Z and Thomas will have to play a lot and can develop next year. I think we will struggle in the post next year without Patterson but the following year with an experienced Thomas and Z and MONROE.........WOW!!!

[SilkyJ]

While neither was ranked as high as PP, Lance was still a McDonald's AA and Brian was top 25-30 recruit.

Scout.com lists PP as the #4 PF overall and they listed Lance as the same after his senior year in High school. I believe that Lance was listed even higher after Junior season.

Lance is much quicker and lankier and more explosive, while PP has got size and is more of a banger. I would like to think that with 1 year under his belt, an off season to get stronger and mesh more with this young team, Lance will be more of an impact player than PP, but our lack of size could give PP minutes right away.

I really think though that Zou is the x-factor. If he can give us significant productive minutes next year, that will make all the difference.

[Jaymf7]

Zoubec in particular has the size to be an outstanding player if he can get stronger and more coordinated and develop his game around the basket. His size bothered Hans a lot in one of the UNC games

I was also very encouraged to see Zoubek bang with Hansblah in the UNC game at Cameron.

I think the rules of projection are a bit different for 7+ footers. I was at the Blue and White game and the open practice early last year. While I know people have written ad nauseum about the irrelevance of B&W performance, what shocked and told me most about Zoubek was the reaction of McRoberts to him in that practice and game.

It was immediately apparent that Josh was frustrated to no end by Zoubek. They even got into a (very brief) pushing fracas at one point in the practice. I thought this was a very bad sign because Josh needed to feel he could dominate practices to have the confidence to dominate ACC games. I don't think he ever got there.

On the flip side, at that early point in the season I felt Zoubek could be special. Again, B&W performance means little or nothing, but I did feel that Zoubek lost confidence he showed in that game as the year went on. While Coach K knows best, his (proven) practice of making freshman compete and win playing time might hinder development of all but the most exceptional young talent. IMO, Zoubek's repreated mental errors (travels, turnovers) had a lot to do with confidence and less to do with raw talent or skill.

I would not be surprised at all if Zoubek makes a huge jump this year (recall the Chief improving greatly after being freed from Laettner's shadow -- and constant hazing).

[mgtr]

I agree that with a summer of intense effort, Zoubek will prove his worth this next season. He needs to learn to hold his ground, and to "predecide" what to do with the ball when he gets it down low. He already can run the floor, which puts him way up on other white 7 footers.
I, for one, am optimistic about his role in the fall.

[adukefan4life52]

Zoubek had a serious problem with fouls and traveling this season. I went to the Saint John's game and if I remember correctly he fouled out and traveled 3 or 4 times in about 10 minutes. In the Jordan Classic in 2006 he played the fewest minutes and fouled out. I think we really need Patrick Patterson. We simply can't rely on Singler to play the 5, he's just not big enough. He will turn into another McRoberts if that happens. McRoberts was tall enough, just not strong enough. It's the same story with Thomas. They are both just too thin, and Thomas hasn't done much to impress me. I personally hope Zoubek can get a hell of a lot better, as having him inside would be great, especially if we don't get Patterson, which I don't think we will, he came away very very happy after meeting with Billy Gillespie, and UK was his first choice to begin with. Duke plays more of a guard-oriented offense, and Gillespie told Patterson that he would get 16-20 shots a game, which won't happen at Duke. Having a big 7 footer that you can rely on is a great thing to have. I just don't think we have that in Zoubek yet, I hope he can prove me wrong.

[pamtar]

But who is going to rebound next year? Where will the interior defense come from ? Who is going to prevent the penetrating guard from penetrating ? Who is going to make free throws ? ( JJ where art thou ?)

Rebounding - Demarcus, Lance, Dave (McClure could be second to doughbrough)
Prevent D - Demarcus, Hendo
Free Throws - as stated earlier Jon, Paulus
(JJ is playing the Pistons tonight (8:00pm , tnt))

[SilkyJ]

Rebounding - Demarcus, Lance, Dave (McClure could be second to doughbrough)
Prevent D - Demarcus, Hendo
Free Throws - as stated earlier Jon, Paulus
(JJ is playing the Pistons tonight (8:00pm , tnt))

Don't forget that Singler will be a factor on the boards. I wouldn't be surprised to see him lead us in rebounds or be 2nd at least. I'm not saying he's a great rebounder, but he's very solid at a minimum, and his size/versatility is going to get him a lot of minutes next year, which means more chances for boards.

From what I hear he is also a pretty good defender...

Of course, if we get PP then he's clearly the leader in Rebs.

[Cameron]

^^He certainly won't come right into the ACC and dominate the glass, but don't count out Taylor from grabbing a nice amount of boards next season. Although he looks a little weak and somewhat fragile at times, he flatout knows how to get his hands on the ball. Obviously, Taylor will be facing much bigger, longer, taller bodies in the ACC next year, but I still think he'll hold his own when he's in.

[jimsumner]

"Rebounding - Demarcus, Lance, Dave (McClure could be second to doughbrough)
Prevent D - Demarcus, Hendo
Free Throws - as stated earlier Jon, Paulus."

Legit questions. RE: rebounding, Duke tends to range from mediocre to poor on the glass. Even with Shel cleaning up in '06, Duke was outrebounded as a team by almost 3rpg. Neither McClure nor Thomas has shown any signs of being anything better than adequate on the glass, at least as 4s. Without McRoberts, Duke will struggle on the glass next season. The perimeter folks, Nelson, Henderson, Scheyer, Paulus, et. al. will have to help out a lot.

Foul shooting. Jon and Paulus shot decently from the foul line this past season but for anyone else a trip to the foul line was an adventure. Half of Duke's losses were directly attributable to lousy foul shooting. Unless Nelson, Henderson, LT, McClure improve from the line, Duke is going to have trouble winning close games. This is the one basketball skill that can be improved over a summer. Given how often Nelson gets to the line, he is leaving lots of points on the floor trying to stay on the right side of 60%.

Defense. LT could be the wild card here. He has the quickness and hops to be a solid m2m defender but he has to seriously reduce the dumb fouls. I'm counting on coaching, hard work, and the legendary freshman-to-sophomore improvement to take care of that for LT and Zoubek but Duke has to get more
quality minutes from these two guys.

[SilkyJ]

^^He certainly won't come right into the ACC and dominate the glass, but don't count out Taylor from grabbing a nice amount of boards next season. Although he looks a little weak and somewhat fragile at times, he flatout knows how to get his hands on the ball. Obviously, Taylor will be facing much bigger, longer, taller bodies in the ACC next year, but I still think he'll hold his own when he's in.

I was going to mention Taylor, but I dont think he'll see very much playing time b/c his defense is lacking and he's so slow. So he might be a decent rebounder when in the game (i've seen lots of people say what you are saying: that he has a nose for the ball) but I don't see him getting a lot of PT


"Rebounding - Demarcus, Lance, Dave (McClure could be second to doughbrough)
Prevent D - Demarcus, Hendo
Free Throws - as stated earlier Jon, Paulus."

Neither McClure nor Thomas has shown any signs of being anything better than adequate on the glass, at least as 4s.



I definitely disagree with you on McClure. He has really good instincts, something lots of people have commented on. He's not tremendously atheltic, and yet he would block shots and get boards over guys much taller and thicker.

The stats support it too: he averaged 5 boards a game while only playing 22 minutes per (thats 9rebs/40min, thats pretty good) and most of his minutes were at the 4.

Thomas has the athletcism to be a better rebounder, I guess he just needs some more meat, something this off season could fix.

[MulletMan]

I don't know if this is the biggest problem we face next season

Pocius - 86%
Scheyer - 85%
Paulus - 75%
Zoubeck - 67%
Henderson - 63%
McClure - 62%
Thomas - 59%
Nelson - 59%

I mean, granted, that's not great, but its not really that bad. I know that no one is dropping 95%+ but c'mon people, JJ was a once in a generation shooter! The most concerning number, to me, above is the percentages of Gerald and Markie due to the slashing nature of thier games. If you're gonna take it to the rim, you need to be able to sink the FTs you get when they hack you on your way in.

[jimsumner]

Well golly gee, I guess Marty's 86% and Nelson's 59% balance out nicely. Except that Nelson took 123 foul shots lasgt season and Pocius took 7! Seriously, 7 foul shots. What did Jordan Davidson shoot?

As a team, Duke shot just under 69% from the line last season. Duke lost lots of close games in which Duke missed bunches of foul shots down the stretch. There's a connection.

If you're good enough to just blow people out of the water, maybe you can get by with 69%. But Duke wasn't good enough to do that last season and unless you have a severe case of glass-half-full, you probably realize that Duke isn't going to be good enough to blow good teams out of the water this season, at least not on a regular basis. If you don't blow people out of the water or they don't blow you out of the water, you either win close games or you lose close games and the ability to step up that charity stripe and knock down those freebies with the game on the line is a significant factor in determining which side of that thin line your team is on.

And close games down the stretch magnify the importance of foul shooting.
There were tons of games last season when Duke would be shooting well from the line for 25-30 minutes and then just melt away down the stretch. Virginia Tech, UNC 1, Florida State, I could go on.

Singler should be an upgrade over McRoberts from the line. But I want Nelson on the floor at the end of close games. I want Henderson on the floor at the end of close games. I would think Thomas might be an asset on the floor at end of close games. But if they can't step up with a two-point lead and 40 seconds left without looking like they're being dragged to the principal's office, then Duke is going to lose in overtime, lose at the buzzer, turn 10-point leads into 6-point losses, just like last season.

Make no mistake. Foul shooting was a liability last season and improving it is a major priority this offseason.

As for McClure, I love the kid but it's difficult for me to imagine any plausible scenario other than a bad attack of injuries in which he would play enough minutes next season to contend for the ACC rebounding title. He's not going to beat out Henderson/Nelson/Scheyer at the 3 and he's not going to beat out Singler at the 4 and Singler isn't going to play the 5, so where will the minutes come from? Thomas and Zoubek are key here but both need to improve a lot.

I still think it's going to have to be a team effort on the glass. Look at the 1986 team, where Duke had players averaging 6.2 (Alarie), 5.5 (Ferry), 4.9 (Bilas), 4.8 (Henderson), 3.6 (Dawkins), and 2.9 (King) rebounds per game. Duke outrebounded opponents by almost 6 rpg despite the absence of a dominant rebounder. Note the presence of the perimeter folks on the glass.

BTW, I'm not comparing the '86 team to the '08 team in any general sense (I wish) only to point out an example of how a total team effort can result a pretty good rebounding team.

[gw67]

I agree that both Nelson and Henderson need to improve their free throw shooting. An interesting stat for Henderson is how few free throws he attempted although most of his offensive game last year was off the dribble. On a per minute of playing time basis, both Nelson and Scheyer not only shot many more three point shots than Henderson but they were fouled more often as well.
Generally, the perimeter players who are fouled the most are those who are the most aggressive and go to the basket. With this in mind, I’m surprised that Scheyer shot more free throws on a per minute basis than Henderson.

gw67

[MulletMan]

Well golly gee, I guess Marty's 86% and Nelson's 59% balance out nicely. Except that Nelson took 123 foul shots lasgt season and Pocius took 7! Seriously, 7 foul shots. What did Jordan Davidson shoot?

As a team, Duke shot just under 69% from the line last season. Duke lost lots of close games in which Duke missed bunches of foul shots down the stretch. There's a connection.



Dude, I knew you would get me on that! :rolleyes: The list just looks sooooooo much better if you throw Marty on top. (Jordan shot 100%, by the way!)

So the NCAA leader in team FT percentage was 'Nova at 78%. The top 50 teams in the land went from 78%-73% (the site I'm looking at only shows the top 50). The only ACC team in the top 50 was UVa. Duke ranked 170 out of 325... pretty much middle of the pack. So if you want to shout about how bad the FT shooting was, that's fine, but in reality you're proabably more on with the statement that missing FTs at the end of games is what kills us. Its not the general FT shooting... its whether or not the team can learn to make the FTs they need to in clutch situations.

IMO, those are two differnt things.


--------------

Oh, and we were 34th in the country in rebound margin, FYI.

[mgtr]

pamtar-
I completely agree with you about McClure. Should see a bunch of time next year.

[ikiru36]

Duke's FT shooting will improve next year as we trade McRoberts 66% for Singler, King and Smith, all 3 of whom I'm guessing will be at or well above 70% (from what I've seen/heard about their particular shooting abilities).

As for our remaining players, FT shooting doesn't tend to change a whole lot from season to season, unless a player "solves" a specific issue regarding their form...etc. I wish that it was simply a hard work issue, but it's often not (though repetition can make one far more consistent once one has decent form worked out). Until you've tried to shoot 'em yourself, using the player's own hands, small muscle co-ordination and hand-eye co-ordination abilities, judge ye not!

It would be great for Demarcus and us if he were able to "fix" his shot mechanics. As for Gerald, David, Lance and Brian they haven't shot a whole bunch in their careers, so the relatively small sample size leaves me some hope that any or all of them may still be capable of ~70+%, with some diligent work on their part. If all of those guys were able to hit upwards of, say, 66%, we'd actually have an above average squad in that regard and we'd all feel a lot less queasy in close games!

Go Duke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Devils!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ACCBBallFan]

FT % was problematic, but let's put it into perspective.

In 33 games, Duke attempted 698 FTs or 21 per game. Even if Duke improved 10% from hitting 69% to 79% FTs, that is "only" 2 points per game.

It makes a difference whether games go into OT or not, or whether Duke loses by one or not, and also affects game situations, but so do other things like Duke's buggest problem last year, turnovers.

Another bigger issue is getting an Offensive flow that draws more than 21 FTA per game.

By contrast UNC attempted 940 FTs in 38 games, to average 25 (so much for Duke gets all the calls). If Duke hit its 69% of those four extra FTs, those extra 2.8 PPG make up for the 2.1 that would be gained with a 10% better FT%.

It's not any one metric but the cumulative effect of many that separates teams.

[adukefan4life52]

We have so much depth at the 2/3 it's ridiculous. Nelson, King, Singler, Scheyer, Henderson, McClure, Pocius. Why do we have so many players for 2 positions? We have no post presence other than Zoubek and maybe Thomas although I don't think he is big enough. I am glad we are getting Singler, but why go get Taylor King when you have so many other guys at his position? That's either a lot of split playing time, or some guys are going to get a lot less than others. I don't think Singler should have to play the 5. He is only 210 pounds, he is clearly too skinny. To be honest, I was more impressed with Henderson than Scheyer. While Scheyer filled the stat sheet more, he is definitely not the next coming of JJ Redick that some have predicted. He is clearly a spot up shooter than only can make shots when he's wide open. I see a drop in his playing time next year with the arrival of Singler, Smith, and King, and especially since Henderson got so much better as the year went on. Scheyer is not a guy who can get rebounds, where Nelson, Singler, King, Henderson, and McClure are. I see the lineup as this:

Paulus- PG
Nelson- SG
Henderson- SF
Singler- PF
Zoubek/Thomas- C (Patterson if we get him)

Bench:
Scheyer
McClure
King
Smith
Pocius

Although I listed Singler as a PF, I still think he is much better suited for the SF position. I see Scheyer coming off the bench next season, even though he did reasonably well last season. He isn't very athletic, he's shorter than the rest, except Nelson, but Nelson is so much more athletic and a much better rebounder.

[jimsumner]

"It makes a difference whether games go into OT or not, or whether Duke loses by one or not, and also affects game situations, but so do other things like Duke's buggest [great typo, btw] problem last year, turnovers."

My point exactly. Making a difference between winning by one and losing by one is fairly significant, in my book. Remember, Duke lost three games in OT, another by one point, an NCAA game by two at the buzzer, blew a double-digit lead against UNC. Two or three free throws per game matters. Remember, also that some of those misses were the first end of a one-and-one, so more points were lost than have been computed.

"Another bigger issue is getting an Offensive flow that draws more than 21 FTA per game.

By contrast UNC attempted 940 FTs in 38 games, to average 25 (so much for Duke gets all the calls). If Duke hit its 69% of those four extra FTs, those extra 2.8 PPG make up for the 2.1 that would be gained with a 10% better FT%."

Agreed. But how much of the FTs-attempted-differential was a function of tempo? I suspect UNC had a lot more possessions per game than did Duke We would need to know free throws per possession. But like most on this board, I fondly remember the days when Duke dictated the tempo and forced other teams to foul them. That didn't happen as much last year as I would have liked.

"It's not any one metric but the cumulative effect of many that separates teams."

Sure, no one has suggested that foul shooting is the only problem that needs to be corrected, only that it is a major one. And players can improve their foul shooting from one season to another. I can give numerous examples where that happened. As I mentioned earlier, Singler for McRoberts should be an improvement. But if Duke could get Nelson, Henderson, Thomas, and McClure in the 75% range, it sure would help matters.

[ACCBBallFan]

If you can believe it, Jim, I enjoy your posts as much as you enjoy my typing.

I also agree with you that of all Duke's things to fix, FT shooting should be the easiest. Oliver Purnell ought to read your post BTW. Clemson shot a paltry 57.8% from the line and missed the dance. I don't have the stats handy but the year before Clemson was equally bad.

Jimmy Dykes made the point one game that Nelson had put an emphasis on FT shooting that day/week, but Demarcus needs to do that all year long. It is defintely something many of Duke's players, and men's basketball in general, needs to work on, both the physical and the mental aspects. Perhaps JJ can provde pointers on what worked for him, though as I recall, Sean Dockery often bested JJ in practice FT competition.

I also think that now that Duke is 11 or 12 deep, they can work on things like Assists (one all season for Lance) and reducing turnovers because they will be accustomed to playing against better competition every day.

Could really use a Patterson now that there is no Jamal or Josh or anyone else beefy enough to push Zoubek around in practice. Not sure how much Brian will remove his stutter step playing against Lance or Dave McClure or Singler or King, though they will have plenty of challenge guarding Zoubek.

Not sure one can ever believe published heghts and weights, but Patterson listed at 6-8/228 and Duke's next heaviest players after Zoubek (250) weighs 215 (tie among Lance, Henderson and King) with Kyle Singler at 210 and no one else over 200- Josh was 240.

Surprisingly, four other ACC teams are equally light weight division - Clemson, VA Tech, FSU and Wake Forest, but all the others have at least 3 and most 4 players 225 or over.

[mgtr]

While Scheyer filled the stat sheet more, he is definitely not the next coming of JJ Redick that some have predicted. He is clearly a spot up shooter than only can make shots when he's wide open.

Huh? Are you kidding? That sounds exactly like JJ in his Freshman year. I think the line on Scheyer is that he is not a great spot-up shooted, but that he finds a way to score. Redick started out as a shooter and became a scorer. Scheyer started out as a scorer and may become a shooter.

[adukefan4life52]

I wasn't saying that Scheyer wasn't a good player by any means. I was just saying that he was no JJ. I also think that our other players might be a better fit given our rebounding trouble. Nelson is a good rebounder. From what I see and hear, so is Singler. Henderson and McClure are also better rebounders. I was simply saying that I was more impressed by the end of the year with Henderson than I was with Scheyer. He frankly just disappeared in a lot of games and I didn't see him as a good go-to guy. He did have a hell of a game against UNC at Cameron though. I may be wrong, but I just don't see him as a good fit at the 2 guard position when we have more athletic guys that are better rebounders (Nelson, Singler, Henderson top 3 in my opinion). I just think the starting lineup would look really good like this:

Paulus- PG
Nelson- SG
Henderson- SF
Singler- PF
Zoubek/Thomas/hopefully Patterson-C

Like I said, I'd rather see Singler at the SF position, but we way too much depth at the 2/3 and not enough at 4/5 like I said before.

[Bob Green]

Huh? Are you kidding? That sounds exactly like JJ in his Freshman year. I think the line on Scheyer is that he is not a great spot-up shooted, but that he finds a way to score. Redick started out as a shooter and became a scorer. Scheyer started out as a scorer and may become a shooter.

Mgtr,

You are spot-on! A quick look at J.J. & Scheyer's Freshman numbers:

Minutes Points FG% FT%
J.J. 30.7 15.0 .399 .919
Scheyer 33.7 12.2 .398 .846

I believe it is so easy to remember a player's Senior year that we forget about their Freshman year. In 2006-2007, Jon Scheyer had numbers very similiar to the numbers J.J. put up in the 2002-2003 season.

Jon Scheyer will be a starter next year. I believe he will be a much improved player. There has been much discussion on the board about the off-season weight room and conditioning routine in regard to Thomas and Zoubek, but the same theory applies to Jon Scheyer. He will be stronger and better as a Sophomore. I am certain he is working very hard on his shot during the off-season and will be an improved shooter next season.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[adukefan4life52]

I saw Scheyer's stats from last year already and I knew Redick's stats from his freshman year. Yes, they are similar. But again, with the arrival of Singler and the improvement of Henderson, something's gotta give. Where does Scheyer fit? He could take Nelson's place at the 2, which I think is a bad idea given Duke's lack of a post presence. With Singler coming in, if he is as good as they say, he will start. The only position set in stone for the most part is PG. Paulus is the starter, definitely. I think that Singler will probably start at PF. And Zoubek/Thomas/hopefully Patterson will go for the 5 spot. This leaves SG/SF open, with Henderson, Scheyer, King, Smith, Pocius, McClure, and Nelson all competing for a spot. Personally, I think that Henderson and Nelson are the 2 best. Scheyer is a good player, no doubt. But Nelson led the team in scoring last season and Henderson is much more athletic and showed great improvement at the end of the year. Plus, both can rebound, which we really need help with, especially if we don't get Patterson.

[Bob Green]

I saw Scheyer's stats from last year already and I knew Redick's stats from his freshman year. Yes, they are similar. But again, with the arrival of Singler and the improvement of Henderson, something's gotta give. Where does Scheyer fit? He could take Nelson's place at the 2, which I think is a bad idea given Duke's lack of a post presence. With Singler coming in, if he is as good as they say, he will start. The only position set in stone for the most part is PG. Paulus is the starter, definitely. I think that Singler will probably start at PF. And Zoubek/Thomas/hopefully Patterson will go for the 5 spot. This leaves SG/SF open, with Henderson, Scheyer, King, Smith, Pocius, McClure, and Nelson all competing for a spot. Personally, I think that Henderson and Nelson are the 2 best. Scheyer is a good player, no doubt. But Nelson led the team in scoring last season and Henderson is much more athletic and showed great improvement at the end of the year. Plus, both can rebound, which we really need help with, especially if we don't get Patterson.

IMO, we will see 8 or 9 players play double-digit minutes next year like the teams in 88, 89, 90 & 91. Next year's team will be deep and I expect Coach K will develop several combinations of players. There will be the starters and then there will be the big line-up and the speed line-up, etc...With 11 (hopefully 12) scholarship players and eight (hopefully nine) Big Macs on the roster, Coach K will have the flexibility to utilize multiple strategies to attack our opponents weaknesses.

Next year has the potential to be the first year of the next great Duke run.

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[adukefan4life52]

Bob-

I hope you are right, we should have a lot of players playing double digit minutes. I wasn't saying Scheyer wouldn't play double digit minutes, I just said I thought he might come off the bench next year. I think if we get Patterson and he plays well, we have a chance at the Elite 8, possibly Final Four depending on how good Singler is.

[Houston]

Mgtr,

You are spot-on! A quick look at J.J. & Scheyer's Freshman numbers:

Minutes Points FG% FT%
J.J. 30.7 15.0 .399 .919
Scheyer 33.7 12.2 .398 .846

I believe it is so easy to remember a player's Senior year that we forget about their Freshman year. In 2006-2007, Jon Scheyer had numbers very similiar to the numbers J.J. put up in the 2002-2003 season.



The analysis is not that simple. JJ's team his freshman year won the ACC tournament and lost in the sweet 16 to the national runner-up. JJ personally put Duke on his back and won the ACC championship game against NC Sate. If JJ was a freshman on the 06-07 team, the stats would have been better.

Unfortunately, the Devils face an uphill battle to get PP. I think we will be going small next year. The strength of the team is the 2s and the 3s. That being said don't sleep on Taylor King.

[SilkyJ]

Where does Scheyer fit? He could take Nelson's place at the 2, which I think is a bad idea given Duke's lack of a post presence. With Singler coming in, if he is as good as they say, he will start. The only position set in stone for the most part is PG. Paulus is the starter, definitely. I think that Singler will probably start at PF. And Zoubek/Thomas/hopefully Patterson will go for the 5 spot. This leaves SG/SF open, with Henderson, Scheyer, King, Smith, Pocius, McClure, and Nelson all competing for a spot. Personally, I think that Henderson and Nelson are the 2 best. Scheyer is a good player, no doubt. But Nelson led the team in scoring last season and Henderson is much more athletic and showed great improvement at the end of the year. Plus, both can rebound, which we really need help with, especially if we don't get Patterson.

Nelson is a captain, our best scorer, very athletic, and an amazing rebounder for a guy who is 6'3/6'4. He will start EVERY SINGLE GAME next year. He can shoot, penetrate and finish. He is also our only senior. You may be right in that the only postition set in stone is PG but that is because nelson will play the 2,3,4 at some point. But you can believe he will start every game.

[adukefan4life52]

Nelson was my favorite player on last year's team, he has always been one of my favorite players since he's been at Duke. However, he has not been the explosive scorer that Duke thought he would be. I completely agree that he should start every game next year, he is just about everything you said. He did lead us in scoring last year, but he had a tendency to disappear in some games and be a non factor scoring wise. I believe that when Duke recruited him, since he is the all time leading scorer in the state of California, that he was going to come out and be that big scorer every game. Yes, his first two years he was overshadowed by JJ and Shelden and had injuries, even this year, he just wasn't a game changer that we needed. I think we can all agree we lacked a player like that this season. I hope that he scores even more ppg next year though. He is an amazing rebounder, his vertical must be amazing, he can jump so high! I also read somewhere that he can bench press almost twice his weight, and that the only player who benched more than him was Shelden Williams last season.

[adukefan4life52]

sorry i meant 2 seasons ago 05-06

[Bob Green]

I am also a big fan of DeMarcus Nelson. His energy on the court is great. Last season was his first healthy season and he responded by leading the team in scoring. He tended to score points in bunches and then disappear offensively. With an expected deeper rotation next season, DeMarcus will play less mpg, but he must be a consistent scorer when on the court. We need Nelson to have a big senior year!

Bob Green
Yokosuka, Japan

[shadycharacter]

Not sure we should be too quick in assigning Marty an off the bench role this fall.

He was often a stud in European games and was coming on more at the end this spring and getting more time. I see his issues as not being physical or ability, but mental.....and mental encompasses both specific techniques in such as defensive assignments, and just generally getting in synch with the touchness of M2M defense at the ACC level in the US.

I believe Marty knows this, and the coaches know it--and they have all been working on especially his defense. He is already capable offensively. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he really blossoms this year.

[mgtr]

IMHO, Marty is not likely to start, but he should see a lot more time than this past year. I would think that, at least in the first half of the season, Paulus, Nelson, and Scheyer will all start. My chipped and cracked crystal ball is just too cloudy to see the rest of the starters. I think we will all learn a lot in the blue-white scrimmage. I can't wait, but I have to! I am betting (hoping, really) that a couple of players will emerge from summer showing marked improvement.

[Saratoga2]

IMHO, Marty is not likely to start, but he should see a lot more time than this past year. I would think that, at least in the first half of the season, Paulus, Nelson, and Scheyer will all start. My chipped and cracked crystal ball is just too cloudy to see the rest of the starters. I think we will all learn a lot in the blue-white scrimmage. I can't wait, but I have to! I am betting (hoping, really) that a couple of players will emerge from summer showing marked improvement.

I too believe that Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson and Singler will start next season with the 5 up in the air at this point. I think Henderson will be the sixth man substituting for both Nelson and Scheyer and getting a lot of minutes. Nelson is not as likely to make a big improvement next season but both Scheyer and Henderson are making the step away from the freshmen seasons and should show marked improvement. Nelson had ball handling problems, was not a great passer and was inconsistent with his shot and from the foul line. He is a formidable defender and excellent rebounder for his 6'3" size but he may just surrender some of his PT to Nolan Smith and Pocius. Nolan will also probably sub in for Paulus at times. I all for the team giving 8 or 9 guys solid minutes next year and perhaps speeding our game up in the process.

[Houston]

I believe the only guaranteed starters are Paulus and Nelson, and they should start. I would be very surprised if Henderson does not start. GH is our best athlete, has the perfect skills for the open offense , and has the highest ceiling. Since we faltered at the end of the season (VCU did not have a player on the roster that we recruited), changes will have to be made. Although our players will improve during the summer, the other 9 schools in the ACC can make the same argument. If the starters and the rotation do not change, we are assuming our players are going to improve more than everyone else. This is risky if we have designs on playing in late March.