PDA

View Full Version : What will Duke's game look like next year.



Kfanarmy
07-01-2009, 04:53 PM
With all the concern over recruiting, concern about how good (or not depening on how you see your cup), concern about potential USA basketball impacts etc. etc. etc. I thought it might be more fun to get others thoughts about how the team might play next year, strategy-wise if you will...and given all the speculation on the starting lineup, concerns over guard depth, potential size advantage, etc. How much differently will the Duke team play next year. This year it appeared to me that the team really focused on defense early in the season, some argued to the detriment of offensive development.
In the end the team played most games at a moderate scoring pace, seemed to focus significantly on individual ability to drive to the lane and get to the rim or pass out from mid-range. Not a lot of passing in to the rim for post-up opportunities for a multitude of reasons, not too many runouts. Not too many set plays, perhaps in effort to duplicate Team USA's ability to create on the court.
Will the team have to slow down? Will we see a significant effort to force development of the interior game early on? Can/should the team maintain a fast pace? Will there be a drop in three point shooting %? Any prophets out there on what we will see next season?

OZZIE4DUKE
07-01-2009, 09:58 PM
The team will look like Duke. :cool: They'll play extremely hard on every play, be aggressive on both ends of the court, and play very smart basketball. What more do you need to know?

-bdbd
07-01-2009, 09:58 PM
Sorry, as I too love to see lots of running and scoring. But there's just NO WAY this team is going to run much. With only 2 scholarship guards on the roster, there's just simply no way to run and (1) provide relief for fatigued guards; (2) have enough athletic/speed ability overall (except for Smith); and (3) more trips back and forth will mean more opportunities for our guards to pick up more fouls (see above re depth, especially fast depth). We will play long stretches with no more than one player on the court under 6'8" -- just not a formula for running.

I foresee a lot more set plays (we don't have any 1-on-1 "creators" like Henderson now) and lots of post-up moves. If we are playing 4 guys between 6'8" and 7'2" much of the time, then there WILL be match-up problems for opponents where we can repeatedly force plays inside. Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot.... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up.... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).

One nice thing is that you KNOW Coach K is going to just love addressing this new circumstance and how to work around our lack of G depth.

-BDBD :rolleyes:

Kishiznit
07-01-2009, 10:26 PM
bdbd is right, no chance of running. It's the 1st time EVER that I am more excited about what we are going to do on the defensive side of the ball than offensive. No way Coach K goes full court press or even 3/4 press - look for constant half court trapping (which actually worked well for us at the end of the year LY). Rather than seeing Kyle at the high point in the 1-3-1 trap, he will be trapping on one of the wings. Look for Lance at the top while one of our freshman standouts runs the baseline. This will cause many turnovers because of our size. Not sure what happens after we create the turnover and the ball is in our hands....flex offense?

We will be OK and strong enough to win the regular season and the Duke Invitational Tournament - let's make a run to the FINAL 4!

Devilsfan
07-01-2009, 11:07 PM
For the first time I think our football team will have more speed than our hoopsters. Keep up the great work coach Cut!

sagegrouse
07-01-2009, 11:32 PM
Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot.... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up.... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).



I don't think Greivis Vasquez, who is listed as 6-6 and 190 lbs., is going to blow by anybody on the Duke roster. At the NBA combine he was the weakest in the running, jumping, lifting tests. Smart, versatile, tricky -- maybe. I think Singler will do just fine against Greivis.

sagegrouse

3rd Dukie
07-02-2009, 12:12 AM
Sorry, as I too love to see lots of running and scoring. But there's just NO WAY this team is going to run much. With only 2 scholarship guards on the roster, there's just simply no way to run and (1) provide relief for fatigued guards; (2) have enough athletic/speed ability overall (except for Smith); and (3) more trips back and forth will mean more opportunities for our guards to pick up more fouls (see above re depth, especially fast depth). We will play long stretches with no more than one player on the court under 6'8" -- just not a formula for running.

I foresee a lot more set plays (we don't have any 1-on-1 "creators" like Henderson now) and lots of post-up moves. If we are playing 4 guys between 6'8" and 7'2" much of the time, then there WILL be match-up problems for opponents where we can repeatedly force plays inside. Your typical opponent won't be able to play 4 bigs to be able to match up with us. So, for example, if someone like Vazquez (MD) - about 6'3" I think - is trying to guard a Kyle Singler at the 2G slot.... With a 6" height advantage, what do you do?? You post up.... a lot! Same goes for a 6'5" SF type trying to guard a Lance Thomas or Ryan Kelly at the 3. Expect some pretty good rebounding differentials in our favor as well.

What I worry about is this: it is reasonable to expect other teams to use their speedy, smaller guys to penetrate and run past us. If Scheyer or Smith has fouls or fatigue or injuries, I see it as challenging for a 6'9" Singler, subbing in at the 2G, to consistently cover someone like a Vazquez (who can also pop from the outside).

One nice thing is that you KNOW Coach K is going to just love addressing this new circumstance and how to work around our lack of G depth.

-BDBD :rolleyes:

I LOVE this statement! I agree completely.

Kedsy
07-02-2009, 12:53 AM
Duke's primary offense will be a 5-man motion offense, which is very different from the isolation offense we played last year or the D'Antoni offense we played the year before that. The only game in 2008-09 we seemed to run anything close to what I think we'll see next year was the first Michigan game (the win in New York, rather than the later game in Michigan). Also, contrary to what other posters are saying, I think we'll run more than we did last year -- I've said this in another thread but it is actually less tiring to run full-court in straight lines than it is to be in constant motion in the half-court, which will be our usual offense, so while we won't be running like UNC the last few years I believe we actually will run when we can.

On defense, although I think a half-court trap would be intriguing, what I believe we'll see is a loose man defense, where the perimeter players try to cut off shots while channeling opposing drives to the middle where hopefully large help defenders will show up to challenge the shot. This could make us vulnerable to baseline cuts, which our frontcourt will have to try and control. However, if our big guys can clog the lane I think this defense could work, and work well.

In short, if we can avoid injuries or foul trouble to the three S's (NS, JS, KS) I think Duke will be successful and a fun team to watch. Call me blindly optimistic if you wish, but I really believe it.

ACCBBallFan
07-02-2009, 03:52 AM
Despite pleas from the Duke message baords,coach K will not play much zone.

With the shortage of ACC 3 point shooters not named Singler, Scheyer, Malcolm Delaney and Eric Hayes kind of by themself among returnees though I am sure a few will surface but no Teague or Hale, no McClinton, no Rice, no KC Rivers, or Oglesby, no Ellington. Green, Lawson, etc

I exect coach K to employ zone principles in a sagging man to man and rely on height to force opponents into worst shot in basketball the fall away jumper one foot inside the line (think Tyalor king five feet further in).

If he keeps one or two post defenders at home in paint rather than letting opponent run isolation, they can be mini-landlord's disrupting penetration.

He will run when he can which of course is facilitated by defensive rebounding or steals by talls/longs if not quicks. Huge height advantage almost always C 6'10 240 or bigger, PF 6'10 215 or bigger and SF 6'8 220 or bigger plus 6'5" guard and 6'2 leaper.

As much as Duke was maligned by defensive rebounds until last couple of seasons not as badly, this year is the oposite and Duke gets a ton of offensive rebounds and putbacks versus everybody but UNC, GT and FSU, probably even over Clemson, Wake, Miami and NC St, surely over MD, UVA, VA Tech, BC, OOC foes except for finals of coaches vs Cancer, much bigger experience wise than Wisc who plays this style

ACCBBallFan
07-02-2009, 04:27 AM
Duke may have a couple of other intangible plusses like having siblings play the PF/C combo in one set with Z/Kelly the other. I also think having guys making the entry passes being talls who have played the post before can be a plus, seeing over the defender, knowing how frustrating it is to work hard to establish position and then not having the ball passed in, or having it too late or in wrong spot.

When Z is in the game his 15 MPG, he is one of Duke's best +/- guys per Jumbo's stats, but also clogs the middle and prevents Kyle from posting up his smaller guy. OTOH, a 270 pound screen opens up a lot of dribble drive for Nolan.

The other bigs with possible exception of Miles can play Pittsnoggle or Euro pick and roll style to really cause some immobile bigs some matchup challenges or at least pull more mobile bigs from the paint if the frosh can hit from outside vs. college competition.

Once more ploy, using Olek for 5 more post fouls at 6'7" 240 to perhaps draw half as many fouls trying to stop his thunder dunks as he commits in his 5-10 MPG, kind of like a low skills hockey player inducing matching 5 min fighting majors with foe's best player, thus softening the gap between Miles/Z and their center who is either playing with some foul trouble or subbed out.

UrinalCake
07-02-2009, 03:05 PM
I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.

Greg_Newton
07-02-2009, 03:21 PM
I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.


The other bigs with possible exception of Miles can play Pittsnoggle or Euro pick and roll style to really cause some immobile bigs some matchup challenges or at least pull more mobile bigs from the paint if the frosh can hit from outside vs. college competition.

I'm curious, where is this perception that Mason is a good long range shooter coming from? I've seen in posted by numerous people before on here.

I watched all of his all-star games and videos and have extremely high hopes for him, but every time I saw him take a 16-18'+ jumper it did not look like a shot that he had any business taking (yet, at least). His form also looked like it needed work. I am quite excited about his length, agility, ball-handling and aggresiveness attacking the rim, so I can see him being very effective in pick and roll scenarios next year... pick and pops, not so much though.

NSDukeFan
07-02-2009, 06:25 PM
I think our opponents will play a lot of zone against us. Our shooting bigs - Kyle, Kelly, MP2, possibly even Lance - will have to make enough outside jump shots to keep the defense honest, otherwise they'll pack it in inside. We'll usually have a size advantage, but I don't think straight-up "shooting over a shorter defender" makes for a very good offense.

where you are shooting from. I like this offense in the key.
I don't think our lack of traditional guards will necessarily keep us from running next year as I do think we have guys who can get up and down the floor and would like to see Kyle, Ryan, Mason, etc. with chances to finish on the break and get some easy baskets.

BlueintheFace
07-02-2009, 06:48 PM
My real question is, will coach K finally be forced to change his defensive strategy after decades of pretty much the same thing?

I'm not saying he will play lots of zone, but might we see a lot of SAGGING man to man with such a dearth of quality three-point shooters and top tier guards in the ACC next year? Perhaps a bit MORE zone than last year?

This is the question that intrigues me the most.

On Offense, we are going to see A LOT of inside-out basketball, and me might see interior passing the likes of which we haven't seen since, at least, 2004.

sagegrouse
07-02-2009, 07:04 PM
My real question is, will coach K finally be forced to change his defensive strategy after decades of pretty much the same thing?

I'm not saying he will play lots of zone, but might we see a lot of SAGGING man to man with such a dearth of quality three-point shooters and top tier guards in the ACC next year? Perhaps a bit MORE zone than last year?

This is the question that intrigues me the most.

.

K has been a head coach for 34 years and has played zone defense only in special situations. He has had phenomenal success in the past three decades at Duke. The man-to-an defense has been a big part of it.

The Duke teams, including this past year's, play really, really hard on defense, often discouraging the opponents. "Animals," "Effing animals," one opposing coach said.

Maybe he should have said at his presser, “I’m not leaving Duke, and I am not playing the zone defense.”

sagegrouse

BlueintheFace
07-02-2009, 07:24 PM
K has been a head coach for 34 years and has played zone defense only in special situations. He has had phenomenal success in the past three decades at Duke. The man-to-an defense has been a big part of it.

The Duke teams, including this past year's, play really, really hard on defense, often discouraging the opponents. "Animals," "Effing animals," one opposing coach said.

Maybe he should have said at his presser, “I’m not leaving Duke, and I am not playing the zone defense.”

sagegrouse

As I said, I DON'T think K will play a lot of zone. However, I am interested to see if K backs off of the "Animals, Effing Animals" hardnosed D a bit next year. Why? Because K adapts styles to his teams as we all know. Well, this team is NOT built to play that kind of defense all year long. Sorry, It just isn't. So, it stands to reason that K would adapt his defense to the personnel, right?

That being said... I don't completely buy that mess about K adapting style of play to his personnel. I believe he always does it for offensive style, but it is my opinion that he has actually shown very very little flexibility on the defensive end in the past. Usually that doesn't matter because usually we have the guards to play his style of hard-nosed man defense. This year, not so much.

As to WHY people keep bringing up zone... well, why wouldn't people ask if we will play more zone? We played more zone last year than we have in recent memory. When was the last time anybody remembers a Duke team playing almost an entire half of a trapping zone (@BC) like we did last season. K was influenced by Boeheim and international opponents and we have seen that influence in an increasing willingness to try zone.

I, for one, prefer man to man 99% of the time, but questions about Zone seem entirely justified to me. Obviously people who call for Syracuse style defense all year long do not understand K, but we must recognize that there is a trend.

sagegrouse
07-02-2009, 07:44 PM
As I said, I DON'T think K will play a lot of zone. However, I am interested to see if K backs off of the "Animals, Effing Animals" hardnosed D a bit next year. Why? Because K adapts styles to his teams as we all know. Well, this team is NOT built to play that kind of defense all year long. Sorry, It just isn't. So, it stands to reason that K would adapt his defense to the personnel, right?

That being said... I don't completely buy that mess about K adapting style of play to his personnel. I believe he always does it for offensive style, but it is my opinion that he has actually shown very very little flexibility on the defensive end in the past. Usually that doesn't matter because usually we have the guards to play his style of hard-nosed man defense. This year, not so much.

As to WHY people keep bringing up zone... well, why wouldn't people ask if we will play more zone? We played more zone last year than we have in recent memory. When was the last time anybody remembers a Duke team playing almost an entire half of a trapping zone (@BC) like we did last season. K was influenced by Boeheim and international opponents and we have seen that influence in an increasing willingness to try zone.

I, for one, prefer man to man 99% of the time, but questions about Zone seem entirely justified to me. Obviously people who call for Syracuse style defense all year long do not understand K, but we must recognize that there is a trend.

You had a fair comment. I think you are wasting your breath: K is going to play man not zone.

sagegrouse
'Really proud to be labeled GRANT HILL on my previous post.'

BlueintheFace
07-02-2009, 08:33 PM
You had a fair comment. I think you are wasting your breath: K is going to play man not zone.

sagegrouse
'Really proud to be labeled GRANT HILL on my previous post.'

I agree wholeheartedly (as I said), but will we see a sagging man that emphasizes protecting the paint rather than the trademark "in your face, deny entry passes with pressure, poach passing lanes defense"??

That would seem to make sense to me, but K has never embraced that style. I can honestly say, I'm not sure which style would best suit this team.

The zone question really boils down to: Will K play Zone ~1% of the time (per usual), ~5% of the time (like last year, which was a change) or more (as it seems to be a recent trend to increase the amount of time K throws out the zone)

miramar
07-02-2009, 09:41 PM
Also, contrary to what other posters are saying, I think we'll run more than we did last year -- I've said this in another thread but it is actually less tiring to run full-court in straight lines than it is to be in constant motion in the half-court, which will be our usual offense, so while we won't be running like UNC the last few years I believe we actually will run when we can.



Since Duke is going to be bigger, the team should be getting a lot of rebounds, and if you are rebounding well on the defensive end that gives you the opportunity to push the ball up the court. That doesn't mean that Duke will be doing a Paul Westhead, but they should have plenty of opportunities for the controlled break, and if it's not there, then they can start their regular offense. As Hall Wissel has noted, "In the controlled fast break, fundamental execution and good decision making matter more than speed." Not to mention that at least psychologically, it wears down the opponents more than the team that's executing it.

Kfanarmy
07-03-2009, 01:46 AM
On Offense, we are going to see A LOT of inside-out basketball, and me might see interior passing the likes of which we haven't seen since, at least, 2004.

Of all the things I thought the team had difficulty with last season, it was interior passing...part of this due to Z and others not being in the game consistently and partly due to the changing PG situation...so some players and synchronization never really developed.

This year, I almost expect to see more of an outside in game, with JS and wings taking open shots when truly open, but working much harder to pass the ball in to posting big men, more reposting when initial shot isn't there etc. Will be interesting to see if they really focus on this early on or if the team focuses on using the interior to set up open outside shots...

Devilsfan
07-03-2009, 10:51 AM
Coach K is a master as exhibited in the Beijing games. Now he just needs to land the players again that fit what he coaches best, man to man, uptempo (started by the defense), guard and wing oriented, defense first, basketball. I think he may have spoiled us.

dukestheheat
07-03-2009, 12:46 PM
One thing's for sure: we only have two guards on the team, and if either of them foul out or get sidelined because of fouls, we are going to have to slow it down. Nolan (my favorite) was prone to fouling last year. Jon wasn't, and Jon doesn't turn the ball over, which is a great thing; he'll get the PG spot and Nolan will work the two. Kyle will play more of a small forward/outside the paint role this year.

Watch out for: fatigue and fouls. This will be a a very challenging year, I think, but I'm up for it.

dukestheheat.

Hancock 4 Duke
07-03-2009, 12:46 PM
Coach K is a master as exhibited in the Beijing games. Now he just needs to land the players again that fit what he coaches best, man to man, uptempo (started by the defense), guard and wing oriented, defense first, basketball. I think he may have spoiled us.

I think it should be Guard, Wing, Forward, and Center oriented. ;)

NSDukeFan
07-03-2009, 02:37 PM
Of all the things I thought the team had difficulty with last season, it was interior passing...part of this due to Z and others not being in the game consistently and partly due to the changing PG situation...so some players and synchronization never really developed.

This year, I almost expect to see more of an outside in game, with JS and wings taking open shots when truly open, but working much harder to pass the ball in to posting big men, more reposting when initial shot isn't there etc. Will be interesting to see if they really focus on this early on or if the team focuses on using the interior to set up open outside shots...

This is one thing I am most looking forward to next year. I don't even care that much if we score that much inside (I would obviously prefer that we do), but I think it is sooooo important that the ball at least get there before we look for perimeter shots. Perimeter shots are much easier to shoot when the ball has gone inside and some of the defense has collapsed. I had hoped to see more of this last year, even if Z wasn't a scorer, but we went away from it once conference play started. I have no doubt that I will be pleased in this regard this year.

NSDukeFan
07-03-2009, 02:41 PM
I agree wholeheartedly (as I said), but will we see a sagging man that emphasizes protecting the paint rather than the trademark "in your face, deny entry passes with pressure, poach passing lanes defense"??

That would seem to make sense to me, but K has never embraced that style. I can honestly say, I'm not sure which style would best suit this team.

The zone question really boils down to: Will K play Zone ~1% of the time (per usual), ~5% of the time (like last year, which was a change) or more (as it seems to be a recent trend to increase the amount of time K throws out the zone)

I think you and sagegrouse are both basically right and think you bring up excellent points about our defensive style next year. Could we be playing 5% zone? Possibly. Could we sag some in the man to man? Possibly, though we may still apply defensive pressure, get beat a bit more often and rely on help defense and hopefully more of a shot-blocking or altering presence this year. We may sag more in the helpside especially in ACC play as who is going to beat us from 3-point land consistently from the opposite side?

MChambers
07-03-2009, 03:17 PM
I don't completely buy that mess about K adapting style of play to his personnel. I believe he always does it for offensive style, but it is my opinion that he has actually shown very very little flexibility on the defensive end in the past. Usually that doesn't matter because usually we have the guards to play his style of hard-nosed man defense. This year, not so much.

I think Duke adjusts its man-to-man quite a bit. For example, when Duke had JJ, Paulus, and Shelden, it did not play an attacking defense as much as in some years. I think you'll see something similar this year.

Devil in the Blue Dress
07-03-2009, 03:30 PM
Here's a recent interview of Singler who says that we may see more zone defense this coming season. He says that Coach K has already discussed this shift with the team. http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/singler-duke-may-play-zone-in-2009-10

BlueintheFace
07-03-2009, 04:32 PM
Here's a recent interview of Singler who says that we may see more zone defense this coming season. He says that Coach K has already discussed this shift with the team. http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/singler-duke-may-play-zone-in-2009-10

ummmm, BOO YAH

...although i wish it didn't have to be that way (drifting off in to scene from Hoosiers where Hackman says he plays straight man)

BlueintheFace
07-03-2009, 04:34 PM
I think Duke adjusts its man-to-man quite a bit. For example, when Duke had JJ, Paulus, and Shelden, it did not play an attacking defense as much as in some years. I think you'll see something similar this year.

I completely disagree. That team played about as aggressive as usual (if not more so) because they could gamble and jump those passing lanes non-stop with the Landlord anchoring the D in the lane. That was a typical man to man D we played.

MChambers
07-03-2009, 05:02 PM
I completely disagree. That team played about as aggressive as usual (if not more so) because they could gamble and jump those passing lanes non-stop with the Landlord anchoring the D in the lane. That was a typical man to man D we played.

I don't remember a lot of jumping the lanes, but they were willing to funnel drivers into the lane. In any event, Duke's defensive statistics have varied some. For example, in 03-04, Duke forced 340 turnovers in 37 games. In 06-07, Duke forced only 242 in 34 games. Obviously, a lot of factors go into those numbers (Pomeroy might be a better source, with tempo adjustments), but I do think Coach K adjusts the man-to-man more than most fans realize.

Atldukie79
07-05-2009, 10:09 PM
Defense: This is where we are affected most with the lack of guards. More specifically, the lack of quickness, particularly lateral quickness. In your face defense on quick perimeter players by anyone not named Nolan will require guile and help defense. We do have agility with our tall perimeter defenders: Scheyer, Singler and Thomas can bother most wing guys. But the true jet quick guys will cause trouble. Fortunately the high caliber point guards are fewer this year in the ACC. Even some of the best like Vasquez from Maryland are not the speedy types...our guys can cover him. Our nemesis will be some wing oriented teams... not sure ACC teams post that threat.

We will play Man most of the time, but we will see zone maybe 20% of the time. We will need to play a softer man on some players. Taller guys do not necessarily mean more rebounds, though I expect to see our rebounding margin go up if we collapse on the basket more often on D.

Offense: I am convinced we will have no issue handling the ball this year. None. We can bring it up with Nolan, Jon, Kyle, and maybe Kelly and MP2. What we won't have other than Nolan is blow by penetration in the half court. I think our passing will be strong from most positions on the floor. The height helps with vision and therefore passing. If any of our post up guys could demand a double team, life would be sweet. I see that as a key to watch for. Otherwise, we may see more motion and/or structured plays setting screens to open shooters. Kyle will be covered with smaller quicker players, which may find him posting up more.

This will be one of the most interesting seasons to watch!

CDu
07-06-2009, 01:26 PM
Defense: This is where we are affected most with the lack of guards. More specifically, the lack of quickness, particularly lateral quickness. In your face defense on quick perimeter players by anyone not named Nolan will require guile and help defense. We do have agility with our tall perimeter defenders: Scheyer, Singler and Thomas can bother most wing guys. But the true jet quick guys will cause trouble. Fortunately the high caliber point guards are fewer this year in the ACC. Even some of the best like Vasquez from Maryland are not the speedy types...our guys can cover him. Our nemesis will be some wing oriented teams... not sure ACC teams post that threat.

We will play Man most of the time, but we will see zone maybe 20% of the time. We will need to play a softer man on some players. Taller guys do not necessarily mean more rebounds, though I expect to see our rebounding margin go up if we collapse on the basket more often on D.

Offense: I am convinced we will have no issue handling the ball this year. None. We can bring it up with Nolan, Jon, Kyle, and maybe Kelly and MP2. What we won't have other than Nolan is blow by penetration in the half court. I think our passing will be strong from most positions on the floor. The height helps with vision and therefore passing. If any of our post up guys could demand a double team, life would be sweet. I see that as a key to watch for. Otherwise, we may see more motion and/or structured plays setting screens to open shooters. Kyle will be covered with smaller quicker players, which may find him posting up more.

This will be one of the most interesting seasons to watch!

I agree with most of this, except I'm less optimistic about Kelly and Plumlee handling the ball. I think they'd be a liability handling the ball against ACC competition. I think we'll be okay with Scheyer, Smith, and Singler, but we won't have a great attacking offense off the dribble.

Both the offense and defense are going to have to look a lot different because we have a very different team. We are going to be much less quick than last year, when we had Henderson, Williams, and McClure defending on the perimeter. Hopefully we can offset that with better rebounding and defense around the rim.

I will be interested to see if/how Coach K makes it work. I'm skeptical, just because this team is so shallow on the perimeter and in terms of really quick players. But hopefully Coach K can make it work. It will certainly be an interesting season.

BigTedder
07-07-2009, 12:40 PM
K has some tricks up his sleeve....I think we will all be pleasantly surprised

:cool:

SupaDave
07-08-2009, 10:57 AM
I agree with most of this, except I'm less optimistic about Kelly and Plumlee handling the ball. I think they'd be a liability handling the ball against ACC competition. I think we'll be okay with Scheyer, Smith, and Singler, but we won't have a great attacking offense off the dribble.

Both the offense and defense are going to have to look a lot different because we have a very different team. We are going to be much less quick than last year, when we had Henderson, Williams, and McClure defending on the perimeter. Hopefully we can offset that with better rebounding and defense around the rim.

I will be interested to see if/how Coach K makes it work. I'm skeptical, just because this team is so shallow on the perimeter and in terms of really quick players. But hopefully Coach K can make it work. It will certainly be an interesting season.


Kyle's putting in work...

http://www.slamonline.com/online/college-hs/high-school/high-school-wire/2009/07/dwight-powell-diary-lebron-james-skills-academy-day-1/

CDu
07-08-2009, 11:29 AM
Kyle's putting in work...

http://www.slamonline.com/online/college-hs/high-school/high-school-wire/2009/07/dwight-powell-diary-lebron-james-skills-academy-day-1/

And he's going to need to put in work to be able to defend quicker players on the perimeter this year, so I'm glad he's doing that. Hopefully it pays off, because the three guys we have that can reasonably play the perimeter have a huge burden on their shoulders.

NSDukeFan
07-08-2009, 11:44 AM
And he's going to need to put in work to be able to defend quicker players on the perimeter this year, so I'm glad he's doing that. Hopefully it pays off, because the three guys we have that can reasonably play the perimeter have a huge burden on their shoulders.

don't forget the burden on the guards who are going to have to guard and box-out Kyle, Lance and Ryan. I hope we bring the same intensity to the boards we did this past year with our bigger line-up.

gumbomoop
07-08-2009, 12:14 PM
And he's going to need to put in work to be able to defend quicker players on the perimeter this year, so I'm glad he's doing that. Hopefully it pays off, because the three guys we have that can reasonably play the perimeter have a huge burden on their shoulders.

I hope you'll consider this a friendly amendment, for I'm trying to be precise, rather than snippy, here.

When you say "play the perimenter," do you agree that we need to distinguish O from D? I'm hoping that - on O - we have 4 guys who "can reasonably play the perimeter": NS and JS at PG; NS, JS, KS, and RK at the "wings," which - for Duke's O - strikes me as preferable to distinguishing between the 2 and 3. Perhaps some posters will insist that neither NS nor JS is ideal at PG, but I assume you agree they can do pretty good there.

Further, given K's positive comments re KS on wing, I'm guessing we're pretty much all in agreement that it's actually a plus to have KS out there - esp on O. As for RK, well, that's a big ?-mark, by which I do not mean, "We all know he's got no chance to play big minutes, too frail, not ready yet, etc." We know, don't we, that - on O - somebody else has to play out there [say, 15-18 mpg], and RK seems more suited - on O - than LT or OC or MP2 [though I personally am very high on MP2 and wouldn't be at all shocked to see him, once confident, move out to perimeter occasionally].

Now, to D - Again, more than 3; I'm saying 5: mostly NS, a little JS [possibly even a little JD, though I'm not including him in this 5] guarding opposing PG. Ok, now to the "wings" on D: here I admit it might be fairer to distinguish between the 2 and 3, as opposing wings may be, say, 6'2" and 6'7". So, guarding the 2: JS, and KS, a little, but when he's in the game "for" JS, LT. On this very specific issue, guarding opposing 2 when JS is resting, LT's gotta be Dave McClure. K thinks he can be, doesn't he? [What choioce does he have???] Guarding the 3: KS sometimes, RK sometimes, but when LT is on floor at same time as NS, JS, and KS, then LT will guard the 3, and KS the 4.

All this mumbo jumbo detail in above paragraph...... isn't mumbo jumbo, I hope. It means that - on D - we have 5, rather than 3, who "can reasonably play the perimeter." Admittedly, "reasonably" surely doesn't mean we can expect lock-down, in-their-face man D. It's reasonable to assume K will, because he knows he must, adjust his man principles as necessary. K's creativity will be tested. Interestingly, I bet many posters think K, a realist, is now gearing up with a twinkle in his eye to face this weird situation.

Really weird, thus several big ?-marks : (1) If NS is injured, or even in foul trouble, shoot, LT may wind up playing opposing PG for big stretches. Yikes! (2) RK has to play some, or JD at least a little. (3) LT has to be even [I]better than was DMc as defensive jack-of-all-trades. Yikes!

CDu
07-08-2009, 01:30 PM
When you say "play the perimenter," do you agree that we need to distinguish O from D? I'm hoping that - on O - we have 4 guys who "can reasonably play the perimeter": NS and JS at PG; NS, JS, KS, and RK at the "wings," which - for Duke's O - strikes me as preferable to distinguishing between the 2 and 3. Perhaps some posters will insist that neither NS nor JS is ideal at PG, but I assume you agree they can do pretty good there.

I think Singler will be fine on the perimeter offensively. I'm not convinced he'll be fine defensively, but I'm hopeful he settles in. I was referring to defense in my post, and thus I mean Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. I'm not convinced Thomas can consistently defend on the perimeter.

As for Ryan Kelly, people keep listing him as a wing. Everything I've read and seen regarding Kelly suggests he's a Euro-style big man - not wing. I get the feeling people saw "6'9" with range" and immediately made the jump to compare him to Dunleavy, when perhaps a better style comparison is to Shavlik Randolph (note: not saying the results will be similar to Randolph - just the style). Thus, I don't see Kelly as a real wing option, and definitely not a wing option defensively. I won't be surprised if he gets his share of minutes, but I expect them to come primarily at the 4.

I think we have 3 reasonable options (maybe 4, if Thomas surprises me) on the wing. And I think that applies both to offense and defense. Offensively, I'd say it's exclusively 3. Defensively, I think it's a bit more ambiguous as I'm not sure what to expect from Singler or Thomas against smaller, quicker players. It could be four capable perimeter defenders, or it could be two, depending upon how they do.

You bring up a fair point in the semantics issue of "reasonably." By "reasonably" I guess I mean "reasonably well," and not just "tolerably." Singler and Thomas certainly may be tolerable defending 2s and 3s. Scheyer may be tolerable defending the quickest guys. I don't see Kelly being even tolerable defending 3s (though I definitely hope I'm wrong).

And yes - the number of question marks on both ends (limited ballhandlers, lack of quickness) will test Coach K's abilities. Hopefully he's up to the challenge.

airowe
07-08-2009, 03:03 PM
Kyle's putting in work...

http://www.slamonline.com/online/college-hs/high-school/high-school-wire/2009/07/dwight-powell-diary-lebron-james-skills-academy-day-1/

Are we expressing interest in this kid?


Dwight Powell, a rising senior at the IMG Basketball Academy, is one of the top recruits in the country. He plays AAU with Grassroots Canada. Schools in the ACC, PAC-10 and SEC have expressed interest such as Vanderbilt, California, UCLA, Stanford, Virginia and even Harvard. The 6-9, 220-pound forward is spending a few days this summer participating in basketball camps, including the NBPA Top 100, Harvard Camp, Amar’e Stoudemire Skills Academy and LeBron James Skills Academy. Powell, also a 4.0 student,

gumbomoop
07-08-2009, 06:15 PM
I think Singler will be fine on the perimeter offensively. I'm not convinced he'll be fine defensively, but I'm hopeful he settles in. I was referring to defense in my post, and thus I mean Smith, Scheyer, and Singler. I'm not convinced Thomas can consistently defend on the perimeter.

I think we have 3 reasonable options (maybe 4, if Thomas surprises me) on the wing. And I think that applies both to offense and defense.

Good points, well-argued. Truth is, I just don't know - well, no one does - whether LT can be this year's DMc. I bow to no one, period, in my admiration for DMc's defensive maleability [?] and solidity. Once he got healthy, he was very athletic, evidenced by periodic blocks out of nowhere. LT? Well, unless K goes zone a good bit, it must literally be true that someone will relieve "the 3" on perimeter defense. I don't see any other logical candidate than LT, who would seem to offer some intriguing advantages, along with ?-marks, the latter of which lead you to be understandably skeptical of his consistency as perimeter defender.

Ditto for O: someone must relieve "the 3," and from even the little I've seen of RK, and more to the point the whole lot I've seen of LT's less-than-smooth handle and jumper, RK seems the only logical possibility. And when NS, JS, KS, and LT are on the floor at same time, I'm strongly guessing LT plays perimeter [3] on D, with KS at 4, thus partially relieving your concern about KS as perimeter defender; whereas in same make-up, on O KS is wing/3 with LT defending the 4.

It does appear that almost all of the top-8 players [I leave OC off], excepting only Z and possibly MP1, must play 2 different spots on both O and D.

MChambers
07-08-2009, 08:21 PM
Good points, well-argued. Truth is, I just don't know - well, no one does - whether LT can be this year's DMc. I bow to no one, period, in my admiration for DMc's defensive maleability [?] and solidity. Once he got healthy, he was very athletic, evidenced by periodic blocks out of nowhere. LT? Well, unless K goes zone a good bit, it must literally be true that someone will relieve "the 3" on perimeter defense. I don't see any other logical candidate than LT, who would seem to offer some intriguing advantages, along with ?-marks, the latter of which lead you to be understandably skeptical of his consistency as perimeter defender.

Ditto for O: someone must relieve "the 3," and from even the little I've seen of RK, and more to the point the whole lot I've seen of LT's less-than-smooth handle and jumper, RK seems the only logical possibility. And when NS, JS, KS, and LT are on the floor at same time, I'm strongly guessing LT plays perimeter [3] on D, with KS at 4, thus partially relieving your concern about KS as perimeter defender; whereas in same make-up, on O KS is wing/3 with LT defending the 4.

It does appear that almost all of the top-8 players [I leave OC off], excepting only Z and possibly MP1, must play 2 different spots on both O and D.

I agree with you and CDu. I can't help but worry about having only 4 players, at most, who seem to have the quickness to defend on the perimeter. (Maybe OC will be able to do this, but we sure couldn't tell.)

I also worry because Coach K has usually favored speed over size. Also, some of Coach K's lesser teams have featured 2 "bigs" playing at the same time.

I'm not worried about the offensive end. I think we've got enough firepower and ball handling to be pretty good there.

Still, I'm looking forward to the season. It no doubt will be a challenge, but we've got the best coach for it and some wonderful players.

ACCBBallFan
07-09-2009, 02:20 AM
Good points, well-argued. Truth is, I just don't know - well, no one does - whether LT can be this year's DMc. I bow to no one, period, in my admiration for DMc's defensive malleability [?] and solidity. Once he got healthy, he was very athletic, evidenced by periodic blocks out of nowhere. LT? Well, unless K goes zone a good bit, it must literally be true that someone will relieve "the 3" on perimeter defense. I don't see any other logical candidate than LT, who would seem to offer some intriguing advantages, along with ?-marks, the latter of which lead you to be understandably skeptical of his consistency as perimeter defender.

Ditto for O: someone must relieve "the 3," and from even the little I've seen of RK, and more to the point the whole lot I've seen of LT's less-than-smooth handle and jumper, RK seems the only logical possibility. And when NS, JS, KS, and LT are on the floor at same time, I'm strongly guessing LT plays perimeter [3] on D, with KS at 4, thus partially relieving your concern about KS as perimeter defender; whereas in same make-up, on O KS is wing/3 with LT defending the 4.

It does appear that almost all of the top-8 players [I leave OC off], excepting only Z and possibly MP1, must play 2 different spots on both O and D.

I pretty much agree with all of this which is reasoning that despite his experience and defensive skills, I think Duke is better served having Lance come off the bench to be fresh for his defensive duties. Nolan and Lance together IMO can only play about 50 MPG total because they will be the ones in foul trouble so that Kyle and Jon and play the other 70 minutes of perimeter defense.

My guess is Nolan 25-30 MPG and Lance 20-25 with some of those dependent on Lance being able to hit FT’s to play during stall ball along with the other 3 perimeter guys if none are in foul trouble or injured. If he is still a 50% FT Shooter though, can’t afford to let opponent play 2 for 1 or 3 for 1 by giving him the Shaq treatment.

People get hung up on Lance not being an offensive SF but quite frankly he has not been much of an offensive PF and certainly an undersized post. Other than stall ball, I doubt we see Lance or Kyle as the nominal 5 at all this year with four other taller options, possibly 5 with Olek @ 6'7" 240 and propensity to dunk.

Jackie Manuel and Marcus Ginyard wre not ofensive power houses either. They earned their PT with defense as Lance must do by default when one of Nolan-Jon-Kyle needs a rest for probably (10-15) plus a pair of 5's to total 20-25 MPG for Lance before he fouls out.

So Duke needs to let Mason/Ryan grow on the job at PF even if in euro style or quasi-Singelr as a frosh role, and Z/Miles be the primary post options along with other of Ryan/Mason as third center to keep Lance as the only legit fourth perimeter defender.

With patience something coach K may be forced to have more of than he had for example with Miles and Z, or even Elliott until late in the season, I have no doubt that the offensive contributions of Mason/Kelly over Lance will more than offset the defensive difference guarding PF's (not SFs). Last year it was just too easy to revert to steady McClure than let the bigs play. Hopefully he won't do the same with Lance this year with so many other taller options who do not have the potential Lance has to defend perimter, but do offer more Offensive potential and size.

All of this presupposes some other points made in this thread that Duke will force the bal more inside to leverage its many height advantages, rather than merely playing a watered down Jon-G-Kyle and 2 decoys that Nova exposed.

I especially agree with the point one poster made of the drastic differences in the two Michigan games and outcomes, fool's gold of we're getting great shots and they are just not falling in the latter.

miramar
07-09-2009, 01:30 PM
According to the N&O, "The nation's best all-around high school athlete is headed to Duke ... and he doesn't play basketball."

Well, why not? If the kid can run and jump, not to mention do the shot put, the discuss, and the javelin, why can't he dribble and play some D?

Just kidding, but I can dream, can't I?

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/story/1600778.html

trinity79
07-10-2009, 01:57 AM
is that if somebody (or a very small group of somebodies) does not establish himself/themselves at the 5, then we could possibly face a situation where we are "teaming" with big men, but still don't really scare anyone inside. Truth be told, Zoubek has had flashes of brilliance, and I loved that tomahawk dunk that Miles threw down at Wake Forest. But Zoubs is what he is and Miles, Mason, and Kelly are all young and unproven. I hope time will prove me wrong to worry about Mason in this regard.

Don't get me wrong. It'll be fantastic to have true depth at the 4/5 like we have not had recently. I think we'll certainly be stacked at the 3 and 4 spots. But I think we make a mistake to assume that just because we have loads of size that means the 5 spot will magically take care of itself. And I'm betting Coach K is just as concerned about the post as he is about the perimeter.

miramar
07-10-2009, 03:19 PM
What concerns me in all this...is that if somebody (or a very small group of somebodies) does not establish himself/themselves at the 5, then we could possibly face a situation where we are "teaming" with big men, but still don't really scare anyone inside. Truth be told, Zoubek has had flashes of brilliance, and I loved that tomahawk dunk that Miles threw down at Wake Forest. But Zoubs is what he is and Miles, Mason, and Kelly are all young and unproven. I hope time will prove me wrong to worry about Mason in this regard.



What I found most interesting in the Pete Thamel article linked on the headlines page was the following: "Singler also was so impressed with the incoming freshman forward Mason Plumlee, who he said had shown enough toughness in pick-up games to earn a starting role."

That could be very significant, to say the least.

Greg_Newton
07-10-2009, 04:53 PM
I wonder, if Mason were to start, would it be over Lance, or over Miles/Z? He's been looking more and more like a forward to me, and Miles more and more like a center.

On that note... while I'm unfortunately not in NC anymore, I've been watching a ton of the several-minute clips of our guys in the Pro Am to feed the ol' obsession. And while obviously you can only tell so much from that kind of thing, it can at least give you insights about a player's positioning/timing/defensive rotations/etc. My initial impressions were...

-Miles has looked quite impressive to me, and is showing signs of becoming a legitimate 5 . His defensive rotations and timing when contesting shots look real solid and he seems to be altering quite a few shots. I'm not sure whether it's the added weight or the added incentive of competing with the little bro, but he looks much stronger and more confident/aggressive than he did last season, and looks like he's moving with more purpose rather than skittishness (even leading a couple fast breaks). Not to mention those dunk videos... it's obviously too early for any Cole Aldrich comparisons, but I think he could have a similar type of game by the time he's gone.

-Mason and Ryan look like they still have some adjusting to do, IMO. I'll admit to being one of the folks that was hailing Mason as our savior next year after all the all-star festivities, but I think the "Olek factor" might be coming into play a little bit - his highlights are thrilling, but in the play-by-play back and forth he looks like he's still adjusting to the speed of the college-level game. He seems to be floating around a little on both ends, and doesn't seem to be as assertive as Miles when establishing position, coming off screen and rolls, etc. He also looks like he has some work to do on his timing when contesting shots - he often jumps too early and into the body of the shooter. However, he looks quite skilled and aggressive when he sets his mind on getting to the rim, and if he can learn to effectively time the release of the ball, he could eventually have an almost-Thabeet-like defensive presence with his length and hops.

-Ryan actually looks quite good with the ball to me (great handle, instincts, reads defenders well, etc...), but he needs to lock himself in a gym with Dave McClure all summer. He has the length, agility and skill level to be a big impact all-around player, but he seems to move very hesitantly and timidly at times and often removes himself from plays (i.e. lingering around the FT line and giving up position while everyone else crashes the boards, not rotating around to challege a shot that he could easily affect). I'm sure this will be coached out of him quickly, but I'm not sure how soon he should be expected to be a major all-around player. However, he'll sure be quite an asset when he gets more confident and assertive in his movements and gets in the physical shape necessary to bang and compete 100% of the time.

If anyone who has actually been able to attend any Pro-Am games has similar/different impressions, I'd like to hear!