ACC Next Year

[Cumae Sybl]

Recent roster attrition has really shaken up the ACC next year. What does everyone here think about next year?

I have to think UNC is the cream of the ACC next year, with GT being the most serious threat. Clemson is right behind them, with Duke and UMD in that area.

UNC
GT
Clem
Duke
UMD
WFU
FSU
VT
NCSU
BC
Miami
UVA

I see UNC as a team unto itself. If Drew is even decent, say 3/4 of Lawson, UNC is a national power. GT has the talent to threaten UNC, but it is really inexperienced.

Duke, Clem, UMD, FSU, and WFU are in the next tier. Clem rebounded with the Noel Johnso commitment, and WFU has a lot of talent on the roster. They lost a lot, but the return a lot and have some decent recruits. FSU has Alabi and some good recruits, but will miss douglas early.

I can never really get a read on VT. On paper they look mediocre to lousey, and then they are a tough out for everybody. NCSU is rebuilding, same with BC and Miami. UVA remains a wasteland outside of Sylvan.

Thoughts?

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I disagree a little. Though I am a little biased, I believe Duke will be better than you say. Here is My list.

Duke
UNC
CU
WFU
UMA
GT
BC
FSU
VT
Miami
NCS
UVA

I believe Duke will be alot better, considering all of our bigs.

[roywhite]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

Hard to disagree with a prophet.

UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

Seems wide open generally.

[arnie]

Recent roster attrition has really shaken up the ACC next year. What does everyone here think about next year?

I have to think UNC is the cream of the ACC next year, with GT being the most serious threat. Clemson is right behind them, with Duke and UMD in that area.

UNC
GT
Clem
Duke
UMD
WFU
FSU
VT
NCSU
BC
Miami
UVA

I see UNC as a team unto itself. If Drew is even decent, say 3/4 of Lawson, UNC is a national power. GT has the talent to threaten UNC, but it is really inexperienced.

Duke, Clem, UMD, FSU, and WFU are in the next tier. Clem rebounded with the Noel Johnso commitment, and WFU has a lot of talent on the roster. They lost a lot, but the return a lot and have some decent recruits. FSU has Alabi and some good recruits, but will miss douglas early.

I can never really get a read on VT. On paper they look mediocre to lousey, and then they are a tough out for everybody. NCSU is rebuilding, same with BC and Miami. UVA remains a wasteland outside of Sylvan.

Thoughts?

Fair assessment, although I don't think the holes are that much better than Clemson/Tech/Duke. Our final position is so dependent on guard health, we are difficult to judge. No injuries to Scheyer and Smith - we could finish at or near the top; a major injury to either probably dooms us to middle of ACC. Nationally, i think the ACC will be down next year.

[Wander]

Maryland looks not so different from what we were a couple of years ago. Ton of really good guards, with an ineffective center or two that forces the coach to constantly play small forwards in the post. I like them to be the surprise of the conference. Can we trade one of our 27 forwards for Mosley or Hayes? I'm kidding, of course, but it would be incredibly beneficial for both teams.

FSU has lots of talent up front, but as I've made my opinion known before, they've got a terrible coach. I think Douglas was responsible for holding that team together last year, and they'll underperform without him.

Duke is probably the toughest team to place, actually. Honestly, I could see us anywhere from 1st to 7th. In a one game situation, we're probably the 2nd best team, but over the course of entire season, I'm not so sure. As has been stated repeatedly, we're a single injury away from being completely screwed.

Georgia Tech does look good, but they've been the supposed "surprise team" for three or four years now, so I'll believe it when I see it.

It really is a complete mess. If I had to pick, I'd say something pretty close to what you have: UNC, Maryland, Duke, GT, Wake, Clemson, FSU, VT, BC, NC State, Miami, Virginia

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

Hard to disagree with a prophet.

UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

Seems wide open generally.

A Duke education certainly encourages creative, resourceful thinking! :D Of course, I'm referring to your reference to the prophetess.

Regarding what to anticipate next year, I must add a point that you and I have discussed at length... the time between now and the first day of practice on campus offers little substantive information regarding play once the season begins.

If I were going to select a maven to illuminate the 2009-2010 season, I think I'd select The King of Misrule (Captain, Krewe of the Twelfth Night Revelers). ;)

[ACCBBallFan]

I accidentally postd this tothe wrong thread earlier ...

There is never a good year to have Kyle and Lance having by default to cover a perimeter guy.

This year at least ACC in particular and NCAA in general has an unusual shortage of 3 point shooters, with Duke while down by its 3 point shooter standards perhaps being the most loaded in ACC with Scheyer, Singler and occasionally Nolan, possibility of Kelly, with Mason being a stretch.

So I suspect we see a sagging man to man employing some zone principles, not much zone per se as 2-3, 1-3-1, and lots of steals by talls the opposing guards can't pass or shoot over more than an overcommitting man to man.

Just can't afford to get Nolan and Lance into FT playing too aggessively. I also expect to see other team press a lot when Singler has to play SG while Nolan or Jon rest a couple miniutes but with mobile bigs like Kelly/Mason that may play into Duke's favor as much as it hurts.

I fully expect to see a ton more offensive rebounds and putbacks instead of Duke being in the receiving end of that as has been the case quite a bit this decade.

MD for example without Dave Neal is even more highly dependent on a couple of frehmen bigs to snare a rebound, as OP referenced

FSU is not huritng for bigs with Alabi, Reid, Singletary, but after losing a couple good gaurds the year before now loses Toney Douglas too. UNC still has plenty of bigs but is losing Ellington, Lawson and Green not to mention Tyler, and their questions are Drew II at PG (assuming he is 3/4 of Lawson is a stretch) and 3 point shooting, not bigs, with return of Ginyard for defense a big plus.

BC losing Tyrese Rice but have some good role players returning, VA Tech losing Vassallo but still having Delaney and Jeff Allen, Maimi losing McClinton, Clemson losing KC Rivers and Ogelsby but still have Booker, Wake losing Teague, Hale and Johnson etc. but still have quite a bit of talent,

plus a few ACC bottom feeders not having much to lose in the first place and still losing guys like Costner and Fells, UVA having a new coach etc.

So given all that, I do not buy these concerns that Duke is close to 8-8 in ACC. Duke still competes for top honors in ACC and sweet 16/Elite 8 is probably their high water mark but once you get that far anything can happen based a lot on matchups and a little luck, and who gets hot as a team.

[Greg_Newton]

There is never a good year to have Kyle and Lance having by default to cover a perimeter guy.

This year at least ACC in particular and NCAA in general has an unusual shortage of 3 point shooters, with Duke while down by its 3 point shooter standards perhaps being the most loaded in ACC with Scheyer, Singler and occasionally Nolan, possibility of Kelly, with Mason being a stretch.

That's a very good point. Our 09-10 roster would have been in big trouble in the 08-09 ACC, when basically every team had a lightning quick, sharpshooting star guard, or two, or three. However, this year, I can't really think of any PGs/SGs that really scare me in terms of matchups. Vasquez, Delaney, Landesburg, Ishmael Smith may be tough, but compared to Lawson/Ellington/Teague/McClinton/Douglas/Rice/Vassalio/Oglesby/Vasquez/Delaney/Landesburg/Smith/etc/etc/etc... not that bad. Many of us may be forgetting to factor in a significantly weaker and less offensively talented ACC into our projections for this team.

[darkblue2769]

I feel like next year will be one of the weakest the ACC in general has seen in quite a while. Neither of the perennial top two teams will be up to their own standards, bringing all of the teams a lot closer together, and there's definitely a chance for another team to swoop in and win the conference (personally, I expect this to be GT, provided they, and that highly touted freshman of theirs, actually live up to expectations for once).

That being said, I think we still have a definitely shot at taking the ACC championship. The overall lack of guard talent across the board allows our biggest weakness in next year's team to not be exploited as much as it could have in the past, and there's a chance for our forwards to become big-time players (I am in the camp that feels Mason is going to have a big, immediate positive impact).

This is going to be one crazy year in the ACC, and personally cannot begin to come up with a predicted finish order. I won't be surprised to see half the conference within a game or two of each other in the end.

[Cumae Sybl]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumaean_Sibyl

Hard to disagree with a prophet.

UNC seems significantly weaker than they have been in several seasons, unless they get unexpected contributions from some young backcourt players. However, (and with the loss of Elliot Williams) they may still deserve to be the favorite.

Duke, GaTech, and FSU will be in first division IMO. BC will be pretty decent, too.

Seems wide open generally.

Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.

The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.

Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).

When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.

UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

Party. Foul.

Not that anyone will believe this prophet.

[Wander]

As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.


There is absolutely zero percent chance that their offense will be better, or even as good, as last year's. They had four top-notch offensive players last year, and they'll be downgraded at offense at those four starting spots.

But their defense should be one of the best in the country, which is why I like them to win the conference.

[NSDukeFan]

Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.

I agree their frontcourt has the potential to be very good next year. So does ours. No way they are the runaway favorite like they were last year, and still they didn't win the tournament and ended up only winning the conference on the last day. No way that a single member of Duke's team from the trainers, to the players, to the coaches is at all scared of their frontcourt. Neither am I.

The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.


Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).

Yes, Duke lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Singler, Scheyer or Smith would start at UNC next year. Heck any two of them would start next year at UNC. I would take Nolan over Drew every day of the week and twice on Sundays. There is not a single guy in our 9 man rotation (sorry Olek) who wouldn't get minutes at UNC next year. (I admit it would be hard for some of our guys to get major minutes at the 4 or 5 spots with Thompson and Davis there.)

When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.

I believe there is a reason people focus on what they lost. They just lost the all-time leading scorer in ACC history:mad:sorry JJ. They also lost 2 other first rounders and a second-rounder. Much as I think you may be underrating the potential of Duke next year, I think you may be doing the same for the team that just left UNC.


UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

Party. Foul.

Not that anyone will believe this prophet.

You are correct, I do not believe this prophet. Could UNC be a top 5 team next year? Sure, but for that to happen, the freshmen have to step up big. Those that discount Duke's chances next year seem to discount the possibility of our freshmen stepping up next year as well. Look, I agree UNC should be picked ahead of Duke to start next year and I agree they have a lot of talent. I guess I also think that experience counts for something and with four starters back next year from the ACC tournament champs and a 30-6 team and 2 top recruits in this year, I think you might miss a lot if you discount Duke's chances to be right in the mix for an ACC championship, along with a few other schools in a wide open year.

[DukeBlood]

You are correct, I do not believe this prophet. Could UNC be a top 5 team next year? Sure, but for that to happen, the freshmen have to step up big. Those that discount Duke's chances next year seem to discount the possibility of our freshmen stepping up next year as well. Look, I agree UNC should be picked ahead of Duke to start next year and I agree they have a lot of talent. I guess I also think that experience counts for something and with four starters back next year from the ACC tournament champs and a 30-6 team and 2 top recruits in this year, I think you might miss a lot if you discount Duke's chances to be right in the mix for an ACC championship, along with a few other schools in a wide open year.

Not to nitpick but Duke was 30-7. I agree with what you say.

Lets do the who would you rather have game..

Smith Or Drew? For me its easy. Smith.

Scheyer or Ginyard/Strickland. I would take Scheyer over Ginyard but Strickland has a chance to be pretty good. For now I take Jon.

Singler or Henson. Henson really has more potential but Singler is already there. Depends on who you are.

Thomas or Davis. I would take Davis. I think he has a chance to be special. Probably lead UNC in scoring.

Zoubek or Thompson. Im thinking Thompson but it will be interesting to see how Zoubek progresses. Being 7'0 or 7'1 he has an advantage.. But will he take advantage?

Bench. Kelly/Plumlee/Plumlee/Olek or McDonald/Wear/Wear/Zeller. Plus the non starter of Ginyard/Strickland. I believe UNC has more depth but The two Plumlee's and Kelly have a higher ceiling. Probably give the slight advantage to UNC for now.

[Greg_Newton]

UNC may be very good, but they still have a million question marks. Who is their most proven player? Deon Thompson, a career role player who by all accounts has been underwhelming this summer. Ginyard was a solid defender before his injury, but he was never an offensive threat and is another question mark after a major injury and a year off. Davis, Henson, Zeller and Strickland all show potential, sure, but who knows what they'll do next year? None of them have proven themselves to be big-time college-level players yet, unless you count Davis' 6.7 PPG. And I haven't seen much from Drew, McDonald or the Wears to concern me yet.

They may well pull it together and win the ACC, but I see no reason why they're a lock to be a nationally elite team at this point. Especially on a Duke message board, geez...:rolleyes:

[mcdukie]

I agree with the poster that said the ACC will be down next year. I also agree that you better keep an eye on Maryland. They basically have the same team as last year and you have to believe they can find a freshman to get the rebounds Neal got. Also, Gary is a decent bench coach. After Carolina, it could go a lot of ways. It could come down to who puts in the most work over the summer.

[Kedsy]

Not sure about UNC being SIGNIFICANTLY weaker next year. Weaker, yes. Significantly weaker, not so much.

Given the roster attrition throughout the ACC, and their margin of superiority may be greatere than last year.

Their front court rotation will be scary. SCARY. Davis and Thompson will be bears for us to guard, and Zeller and the Wears provide capable, at least, depth.

The difference between them being good, and them being great, is Henson. Not Drew as was widely reported. If Henson can play the 3, UNC is bananas. That will let them play Ginyard at the 2. From there they only have to get solid play from the PG, with Strickland and McDonald giving good depth. By ACC play, these guys will be seasoned enough to give backup mpg.

Drew doesn't have to be great for UNC to be good. Drew only has to be decent. If he can give them 60-75% of Lawson, UNC can be a final four team.

Yes, UNC lost a lot. They also return a lot. Any of Ginyard, Davis, or Thompson would start at Duke next year. Heck, any two of them would start next year at Duke. We rip on Drew, but I would love to have a capable, team running PG with experience on the squad. There is not a single guy in their rotation that would not get big minutes at Duke next year, save the Wear Twins (a potential boondoggle down the road for UNC thank god).

When looking at UNC, everybody focuses on what they lost. Their starting rotation has three guys who played for and won a NC, two guys who ALSO played in another FF and an elite 8, and played against those departed studs in practice every day.

Sure, there will be an adjustment as role plaers become stars, but by ACC season they should have adjusted.

As a scarier thought, UNC might be a much improved defensive team by next year. And their O might flow a lot better without everybody have to forcefeed the least mobile guy on the team.

UNC may take a step back in the conf, but nearly everybody else took a bigger step back. The only team that took a step forward was GT, and they are young and have iffy coaching.

UNC is no patch on KU or KY, but they look plenty good. Some folks in the national media also mention MSU, but after the physical abuse they suffered last march, I will have to see it to believe it.

UNC is a top 5 team, yet again.

Party. Foul.

Not that anyone will believe this prophet.

Here's the thing, even with Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green, UNC was only an average ACC team when Lawson didn't play over the past two years. I don't know how you could assign Drew a percentage of Lawson, but in my mind the bottom line is Lawson is who made UNC special and Drew isn't close.

I agree that the biggest key to UNC's season is how good Henson is, but he's a freshman just like MP2 and Kelly, so I don't think you can make any judgments until we see the kids play some games.

If we don't suffer any major injuries (and, yes, I'm knocking on wood as I type that) our two-man backcourt is better than UNC's, even though they have more bodies there than we do. I believe that if we get lucky and don't have such injuries then our team and UNC's team are pretty equal. I'm no prophet but obviously we'll see who's right sometime next season.

[Bob Green]

If we don't suffer any major injuries (and, yes, I'm knocking on wood as I type that) our two-man backcourt is better than UNC's, even though they have more bodies there than we do.

You make an excellent point. Carolina is in worse shape than we are as far as the backcourt goes. Drew is no Ty Lawson or Ray Felton. If Scheyer and Smith stay healthy, Duke potentially has the best backcourt duo in the league. When you throw Singler into the mix, at small forward/wing guard, we are in solid shape. If we suffer an injury to one of those three, the situation becomes cloudy.

[CDu]

You make an excellent point. Carolina is in worse shape than we are as far as the backcourt goes. Drew is no Ty Lawson or Ray Felton. If Scheyer and Smith stay healthy, Duke potentially has the best backcourt duo in the league. When you throw Singler into the mix, at small forward/wing guard, we are in solid shape. If we suffer an injury to one of those three, the situation becomes cloudy.

I think that's an optimistic statement. If we suffer a serious injury to any one of those three, I think the situation becomes much worse than cloudy. If we lose any of those three, we have a very weak team in my opinion. We then have only two guys remotely capable of defending at the guard spot and handling the ball. And that's being generous with Singler's ability to defend at guard.

Having a potentially talented frontcourt (and remember, it remains to be seen how good our frontcourt will actually be) does not make up for weakness in the backcourt. You need to have the backcourt in place to do well. And if we only have two guys capable of playing the backcourt on the team, well, that's trouble.

First and foremost, we're going to need the "little three" to stay healthy. But almost just as importantly, Smith is going to need to make major progress as a player. He showed signs of it early last year, but he's going to have to be able to play close to 35 minutes of productive basketball every night for this year's team. If that happens, maybe we can survive the lack of depth. And then maybe we can see what the frontcourt brings us.

[kong123]

I think the members of this forum are being more optimistic than they should be. Sure, we all hope that Duke wins as many games as possible, but over a 30+ game season, our 3 guards must averaged 55+ points per game combined. Jon and Kyle shouldn't have a problem holding up their end, but is Smith up to the task? Sure, we have some highly regarded freshman coming in, but one of them will have to have an "ACC freshman of the year" type year for Duke to be a contender. Its all about how consistent our team can score and how deep our bench can go, if we do not go deep enough, look for a late season drop off like we have had for the last 5 years. Am I being a touch pessimistic? Perhaps....

[gumbomoop]

I think that's an optimistic statement. If we suffer a serious injury to any one of those three, I think the situation becomes much worse than cloudy. If we lose any of those three, we have a very weak team in my opinion. We then have only two guys remotely capable of defending at the guard spot and handling the ball. And that's being generous with Singler's ability to defend at guard.

Having a potentially talented frontcourt (and remember, it remains to be seen how good our frontcourt will actually be) does not make up for weakness in the backcourt. You need to have the backcourt in place to do well. And if we only have two guys capable of playing the backcourt on the team, well, that's trouble.

First and foremost, we're going to need the "little three" to stay healthy. But almost just as importantly, Smith is going to need to make major progress as a player. He showed signs of it early last year, but he's going to have to be able to play close to 35 minutes of productive basketball every night for this year's team. If that happens, maybe we can survive the lack of depth. And then maybe we can see what the frontcourt brings us.

I'm definitely among the wildly optimistic posters, but I can't disagree with CDu's points here, having made 1 or 2 of them myself. For that matter, I doubt many could possibly ignore the ominous danger of injury to any of "the 3," nor of merely minimal improvement from NS. As I've commented elsewhere on board, K will surely tell it to NS straight, which in my K-channeling is: "Nolan, you gotta play; no meek crap."

As for our spot in ACC, here was my take 2 weeks ago, in aftermath of "draft fallout" but before EWill's departure:

Top tier -
1. Duke-UNC tie, 12-4
3. Ga Tech, almost certainly the by-far biggest jump up from '08-'09, maybe challenge for 2d, but let's say 10-6

Middle/muddle tier -
4. FSU - Alabi, Singleton, Kitchen, Dulkys may improve noticeably, and Snaer is reported to be excellent, 9-7
5. BC - lots of experience, Skinner gets his guys to play his system very consistently, Trapani 2d maybe 1st-team ACC, 9-7
6. Md - still smallish, but now lots of experience and several solid players, 9-7
7. Clemson - loss of Oglesby hurts, but Booker surely 1st-team ACC, long-shot possible CPOY?, 8-8
8. Va Tech - Allen and Delaney, maybe I've got 'em too low, 7-9
9. Wake -devastating losses to early NBA, 7-9

Bottom tier -
10. Miami - I sure don't see them as dead last, but maybe they're closer to bottom than I'd have figured, so, 5-11
11. UVa-NCSt tie - both are a year away even from middle of, uh, the pack - 4-12

So, now with EWill gone, how far do we fall, relative to others, esp at top? My optimism shows here, for I'd say we're still top tier, let's say still 12-4, maybe 11-5. But as I and many others have said, the ACC is considerably down next year, so we still have lots of talent, just not nicely balanced, position-wise.

Further, if most now concede top spot to UNC, does that ignore the fact that Duke is actually in better shape than UNC at the point: to wit, NS/JS are superior to Drew/Ginyard/Strickland at PG. Aren't they? As long as we're agonizing over injury to NS, what befalls UNC should Drew go down? Or Wake if Smith gets hurt? Or MD without Vasquez for awhile? Clemson absent Stitt? It's true that our perimeter generally is appallingly thin, but specifically on the injury issue, several teams are on thin ice.

The more I think about it, GaTech, if Favors is real deal, and if Hewitt is decent X/O coach, is primed to challenge for 1-2 spot.

[Cumae Sybl]

Here's the thing, even with Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green, UNC was only an average ACC team when Lawson didn't play over the past two years. I don't know how you could assign Drew a percentage of Lawson, but in my mind the bottom line is Lawson is who made UNC special and Drew isn't close.

I agree that the biggest key to UNC's season is how good Henson is, but he's a freshman just like MP2 and Kelly, so I don't think you can make any judgments until we see the kids play some games.

If we don't suffer any major injuries (and, yes, I'm knocking on wood as I type that) our two-man backcourt is better than UNC's, even though they have more bodies there than we do. I believe that if we get lucky and don't have such injuries then our team and UNC's team are pretty equal. I'm no prophet but obviously we'll see who's right sometime next season.

Your definition of average, and my definition of average are wildely divergent. Without Lawson, UNC was no worst than the second best team in the ACC. They were more vulnerable, yes. With Lawson they were nigh on unstoppable. The only reason we won the much mentioned ACC tourney was because he wussed out with an alleged toe injury. It has been a while since Duke beat UNC when Ty was on the floor.

No, we don't know how good Henson will be next year. But, based on the rankings and the all-star games, the likelihood of him being ready and capable is higher than the likelihood of MP2 and/or Kelly being ready. We can't assume, or take for granted, that our Frosh will be key contributors while dismissing that same likelihood for a player who was rated higher and looked better in the all star games.

I will grant that our 2 person backcourt is very probably better than any 2 backcourt players UNC can put on the court. But they have 4 guys versus our 2, and I think that pushes them over the top. Especially because one of their guys, Ginyard, is tailor made to play great D on Scheyer. Ginyard has the size, strength, athleticism, and experience to really cause Jon trouble. I believe he will be the most effective Defender Jon will face all season. Barring foul trouble, Jon can expect to have Ginyard breathing down his neck for 25+mpg when Duke and UNC lock horns.

Also, I am starting to worry about Drew. Roy watched him all last year, and he made no effort to get a replacement. And getting one would have been as simple as offering a scholly to John Wall, who would have probably jumped at the offer. But Roy did not expend that minute amt of effort to secure a stud player. Maybe Roy was scared of the entourage or just didn't like the kid. But if Roy could deal with Ty and McCants, Wall would have been a vacation in candy land. Why didn't Roy upgrade, which we all know he is willing to do (see Frasor and Lawson)? Maybe he thinks Drew is OK. Maybe Drew just looked bad vs the top PG in college ball who had three years of experience.

Vs any 2 of UNC's guards, Duke's guards are probably better, but not by as much as many of you think. Jon is better on O than Ginyard, but Ginyard is a better defender, and Ginyard will cause Jon fits. Nolan will probably be better than Drew, but based on his performance so far it remains to be seen by how much. And UNC has two capable subs. Strickland is very athletic, and a good foyle to Nolan actually. McDonald is a capable three pt threat with a solid skill set. Given that UNC's guards will get actual rest during the game, not to mention the cumulative wearing down of our guys, the difference between our 2 guards and their 4 guards is not that great. And that difference may not be our favor.



You make an excellent point. Carolina is in worse shape than we are as far as the backcourt goes. Drew is no Ty Lawson or Ray Felton. If Scheyer and Smith stay healthy, Duke potentially has the best backcourt duo in the league. When you throw Singler into the mix, at small forward/wing guard, we are in solid shape. If we suffer an injury to one of those three, the situation becomes cloudy.

See above. UNC's backcourt next year is worse than last year. So is Duke's backcourt. Even the most optimistic person on this board cannot claim that Duke's backcourt has improved from last year. We lost our two most athletic guys, and one of our key backups. We have no depth.

Again, a lot of people are focussing on what UNC lost last year. And, agreed, they lost as much as any team in recent memory, perhaps going back to 2005 UNC or even 1999 Duke.

But they were so much more talented than every team in the nation last year. I really don't remember a team being that dominant in the NCAA tourney, at least in the last 15-20 years. They were never seriously challenged during the tourney. Most of the games were over 5-10 minutes in, and virtually all were over by halftime.

So, while they lost a lot, they had much more than anybody else to begin with. They were so much better than everybody else that they still return a lot. Most preseason polls already have them in the top 5. Read CBS, ESPN, or SI if you don't believe me. They are really skilled, really athletic, and really experienced. And they have a solid coach.

Yes, they only closed out the conf on the last day of the regular season. But they were assured of a tie, assuming UNC lost and WFU won. So Co-Champs was the worst they could do, and that was with an unbalanced schedule where the second place team, WFU, didn't have to go to UNC to play (WFU had a very favorable sched in my opinion, which helped them get so close to UNC). UNC was the dominant team in the ACC last year.

And the ACC lost a lot of the guards that would have taken advantage of UNC this year. Yes, they have to play the games, but UNC will be very good this year.

Luckily, I think attrition will decimate them this year, and leave them with a really iffy rotation of bigs next year.

[_Gary]

But they were so much more talented than every team in the nation last year. I really don't remember a team being that dominant in the NCAA tourney, at least in the last 15-20 years.

I agree with a huge percentage of what you said, but I had to take exception to that one comment. Last year's UNC was darn good. Even dominant. But I can think of at least 2 teams in the last 20 years that were just as dominant, if not more so: UNLV '90 and Duke '99. Granted, the Duke team failed to show up at the Championship game and lost to the second best team in the nation that year, but they were the most dominant team I've ever seen in my life (35+ years of watching college bb and actually being able to appreciate it and remember it). I'd take either of those teams against last year's Heel team any day of the week. Heck, I'd take any of our 3 championship teams over them as well.

But yeah, UNC will be good against next year. And their backcourt depth probably gives them a slight advantage over us at the guard spot this upcoming season. Wish it weren't so, but seems likely.


Gary

[gw67]

As for our spot in ACC, here was my take 2 weeks ago, in aftermath of "draft fallout" but before EWill's departure:

Top tier -
1. Duke-UNC tie, 12-4
3. Ga Tech, almost certainly the by-far biggest jump up from '08-'09, maybe challenge for 2d, but let's say 10-6

Middle/muddle tier -
4. FSU - Alabi, Singleton, Kitchen, Dulkys may improve noticeably, and Snaer is reported to be excellent, 9-7
5. BC - lots of experience, Skinner gets his guys to play his system very consistently, Trapani 2d maybe 1st-team ACC, 9-7
6. Md - still smallish, but now lots of experience and several solid players, 9-7
7. Clemson - loss of Oglesby hurts, but Booker surely 1st-team ACC, long-shot possible CPOY?, 8-8
8. Va Tech - Allen and Delaney, maybe I've got 'em too low, 7-9
9. Wake -devastating losses to early NBA, 7-9

Bottom tier -
10. Miami - I sure don't see them as dead last, but maybe they're closer to bottom than I'd have figured, so, 5-11
11. UVa-NCSt tie - both are a year away even from middle of, uh, the pack - 4-12

So, now with EWill gone, how far do we fall, relative to others, esp at top? My optimism shows here, for I'd say we're still top tier, let's say still 12-4, maybe 11-5. But as I and many others have said, the ACC is considerably down next year, so we still have lots of talent, just not nicely balanced, position-wise.

Further, if most now concede top spot to UNC, does that ignore the fact that Duke is actually in better shape than UNC at the point: to wit, NS/JS are superior to Drew/Ginyard/Strickland at PG. Aren't they? As long as we're agonizing over injury to NS, what befalls UNC should Drew go down? Or Wake if Smith gets hurt? Or MD without Vasquez for awhile? Clemson absent Stitt? It's true that our perimeter generally is appallingly thin, but specifically on the injury issue, several teams are on thin ice.

The more I think about it, GaTech, if Favors is real deal, and if Hewitt is decent X/O coach, is primed to challenge for 1-2 spot.

I agree with much of what gumbo has to say. I expect both FSU and BC to be first division teams even though they both lost their leading scorers. Maryland has one of the deepest and most experienced backcourts in the ACC and 9-7 sounds about right to me.

Miami, Virginia and NC State will likely bring up the rear while UNC and Duke should remain at the top although their records may down from previous years. The real unknowns to me are Georgia Tech and Clemson. Tech has a number of talented players but can Hewitt get them to play as a team while Clemson will be dependent on some young players.

gw67

[DU Band Prez 88]

I agree with a huge percentage of what you said, but I had to take exception to that one comment. Last year's UNC was darn good. Even dominant. But I can think of at least 2 teams in the last 20 years that were just as dominant, if not more so: UNLV '90 and Duke '99. Granted, the Duke team failed to show up at the Championship game and lost to the second best team in the nation that year, but they were the most dominant team I've ever seen in my life (35+ years of watching college bb and actually being able to appreciate it and remember it). I'd take either of those teams against last year's Heel team any day of the week. Heck, I'd take any of our 3 championship teams over them as well.

But yeah, UNC will be good against next year. And their backcourt depth probably gives them a slight advantage over us at the guard spot this upcoming season. Wish it weren't so, but seems likely.


Gary

Agree with you on taking any of our 91, 92 and 01 title teams over UNC last year. My opinion is that Duke's 1992 NCAA champions were a better basketball team than both UNLV 1990 and Duke 1999, even though these teams I believe were more dominant during their respective tournaments (save for Duke's title game loss to UConn) and regular seasons (scoring margin, etc).

Carolina should be favored (once again) to finish in first place, but I agree with an earlier poster that this should be a wide-open year with several teams ending up around 11-5, 10-6, 9-7.

[SupaDave]

Your definition of average, and my definition of average are wildely divergent. Without Lawson, UNC was no worst than the second best team in the ACC. They were more vulnerable, yes. With Lawson they were nigh on unstoppable. The only reason we won the much mentioned ACC tourney was because he wussed out with an alleged toe injury. It has been a while since Duke beat UNC when Ty was on the floor.

No, we don't know how good Henson will be next year. But, based on the rankings and the all-star games, the likelihood of him being ready and capable is higher than the likelihood of MP2 and/or Kelly being ready. We can't assume, or take for granted, that our Frosh will be key contributors while dismissing that same likelihood for a player who was rated higher and looked better in the all star games.

I will grant that our 2 person backcourt is very probably better than any 2 backcourt players UNC can put on the court. But they have 4 guys versus our 2, and I think that pushes them over the top. Especially because one of their guys, Ginyard, is tailor made to play great D on Scheyer. Ginyard has the size, strength, athleticism, and experience to really cause Jon trouble. I believe he will be the most effective Defender Jon will face all season. Barring foul trouble, Jon can expect to have Ginyard breathing down his neck for 25+mpg when Duke and UNC lock horns.

Also, I am starting to worry about Drew. Roy watched him all last year, and he made no effort to get a replacement. And getting one would have been as simple as offering a scholly to John Wall, who would have probably jumped at the offer. But Roy did not expend that minute amt of effort to secure a stud player. Maybe Roy was scared of the entourage or just didn't like the kid. But if Roy could deal with Ty and McCants, Wall would have been a vacation in candy land. Why didn't Roy upgrade, which we all know he is willing to do (see Frasor and Lawson)? Maybe he thinks Drew is OK. Maybe Drew just looked bad vs the top PG in college ball who had three years of experience.

Vs any 2 of UNC's guards, Duke's guards are probably better, but not by as much as many of you think. Jon is better on O than Ginyard, but Ginyard is a better defender, and Ginyard will cause Jon fits. Nolan will probably be better than Drew, but based on his performance so far it remains to be seen by how much. And UNC has two capable subs. Strickland is very athletic, and a good foyle to Nolan actually. McDonald is a capable three pt threat with a solid skill set. Given that UNC's guards will get actual rest during the game, not to mention the cumulative wearing down of our guys, the difference between our 2 guards and their 4 guards is not that great. And that difference may not be our favor.




See above. UNC's backcourt next year is worse than last year. So is Duke's backcourt. Even the most optimistic person on this board cannot claim that Duke's backcourt has improved from last year. We lost our two most athletic guys, and one of our key backups. We have no depth.

Again, a lot of people are focussing on what UNC lost last year. And, agreed, they lost as much as any team in recent memory, perhaps going back to 2005 UNC or even 1999 Duke.

But they were so much more talented than every team in the nation last year. I really don't remember a team being that dominant in the NCAA tourney, at least in the last 15-20 years. They were never seriously challenged during the tourney. Most of the games were over 5-10 minutes in, and virtually all were over by halftime.

So, while they lost a lot, they had much more than anybody else to begin with. They were so much better than everybody else that they still return a lot. Most preseason polls already have them in the top 5. Read CBS, ESPN, or SI if you don't believe me. They are really skilled, really athletic, and really experienced. And they have a solid coach.

Yes, they only closed out the conf on the last day of the regular season. But they were assured of a tie, assuming UNC lost and WFU won. So Co-Champs was the worst they could do, and that was with an unbalanced schedule where the second place team, WFU, didn't have to go to UNC to play (WFU had a very favorable sched in my opinion, which helped them get so close to UNC). UNC was the dominant team in the ACC last year.

And the ACC lost a lot of the guards that would have taken advantage of UNC this year. Yes, they have to play the games, but UNC will be very good this year.

Luckily, I think attrition will decimate them this year, and leave them with a really iffy rotation of bigs next year.

I think Georgia Tech crushes UNC next year. That match-up favors Georgia Tech right now.

[Cumae Sybl]

When I said most dominant, I meant during the NCAA Tournament only, not during the rest of the year. The 99 team looked better during the regular season, but I have to say that the ACC then was weaker than the ACC last year. Against the 99 ACC, I think UNC has a chance to run the table like we did.

And our 91, 92, 99, and 01 squads were not as dominant in the NCAA tourney as UNC was last year. Each of those 4 teams had significant trouble at some point.

91: UNLV Epic.
92: Kentucky Nailbiter
99: Lost the Championship Game, obv not dominant
01: Big Comebacks vs both UMD and Arizona.

Last year Holes were never challenged during the tourney.

As for the regular season, the Holes didn't focus every game, didn't play D every game, and some guys floated. K does a much better job getting high level play out of his guys on a consistent basis, which is why we were all schocked by the Clemson game.

But when the games counted, when UNC focused, played D, and and stayed on task, they were as untouchable as any team ever. I will grant that their dominance had as much to do with the lack of another elite team, such as UConn to our 99 or 03 squads, or UA to our 01 squad. UNC was a historically good team last year, only there was no one even close to their level to be their foil.

Next year, UNC is not a national elite. They are a favorite for the Final Four, but I really don't give them much chance vs KY or KU. But I still see them as the class of the conference.

I also agree that GT has as much potential as anyone, but they have underachieved with as much potential as before. Methinks the problem may be with the coach.

[Kedsy]

Your definition of average, and my definition of average are wildely divergent. Without Lawson, UNC was no worst than the second best team in the ACC. They were more vulnerable, yes. With Lawson they were nigh on unstoppable. The only reason we won the much mentioned ACC tourney was because he wussed out with an alleged toe injury.

This is exactly my point. When Lawson didn't play in the ACC tournament, UNC won one game and lost one game (to a middle-tier ACC team). Is not that the very definition of average? Over Lawson's entire career, when he didn't play the team looked decent but certainly not great and there are a lot of decent teams in the league.

As for the UNC comparison against Duke, for the past couple years when Lawson didn't play, Duke was the far better team. When he did, UNC was the far better team. Drew may be better than we think he is, but he's nowhere near enough to say that UNC will be superior this year. We're just going to have to play the games and find out.

[CDu]

As for our spot in ACC, here was my take 2 weeks ago, in aftermath of "draft fallout" but before EWill's departure:

Top tier -
1. Duke-UNC tie, 12-4

...

So, now with EWill gone, how far do we fall, relative to others, esp at top? My optimism shows here, for I'd say we're still top tier, let's say still 12-4, maybe 11-5. But as I and many others have said, the ACC is considerably down next year, so we still have lots of talent, just not nicely balanced, position-wise.

I agree with your pre-transfer assessment of the team. 12-4 in the ACC seemed like a pretty reasonable estimate for a team that had a lot of talent but a good deal of question marks.

What I disagree with is your 11-5 and 12-4 guess AFTER losing Williams. So you see little-to-no dropoff despite losing one of our only two guys on the roster capable of defending quicker ACC guards? And one of our only three guys one the roster capable of defending guards in general? That seems HIGHLY optimistic to me.

I think somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6 in conference seems more like a reasonable range given the huge question mark introduced by the backcourt depth. And that's assuming no serious injuries to the backcourt. I think 11 or 12 ACC wins is the absolute best case scenario for a team with such a lack of depth in the backcourt.

[Cumae Sybl]

This is exactly my point. When Lawson didn't play in the ACC tournament, UNC won one game and lost one game (to a middle-tier ACC team). Is not that the very definition of average? Over Lawson's entire career, when he didn't play the team looked decent but certainly not great and there are a lot of decent teams in the league.

As for the UNC comparison against Duke, for the past couple years when Lawson didn't play, Duke was the far better team. When he did, UNC was the far better team. Drew may be better than we think he is, but he's nowhere near enough to say that UNC will be superior this year. We're just going to have to play the games and find out.

It wasn't that they were bad without Lawson, it was that they took a big step back when a key player, who ran their team, was suddenly unavailable. They practiced and planned on Lawson being available, and on those occaisions when he was unexpectedly unavailable they suffered.

How would we have looked if Jon, Kyle, or Gerald had missed games suddenly? Not Good is the answer to that.

It can take a game or two to adjust to a sudden loss of a key player, to say nothing of a ball-dominant, All American PG.

By the time UNC gets to the ACC, they will have had PLENNNNNTY of experience playing without Ty. Their whole gameplan will different than last year. There might be some adjust time, but that will be long over by ACC play. Everyone on the team will be used to playing without Lawson on the court.

[SupaDave]

It can take a game or two to adjust to a sudden loss of a key player, to say nothing of a ball-dominant, All American PG.

By the time UNC gets to the ACC, they will have had PLENNNNNTY of experience playing without Ty. Their whole gameplan will different than last year. There might be some adjust time, but that will be long over by ACC play. Everyone on the team will be used to playing without Lawson on the court.

Funny b/c everyone used to playing with Lawson on the court is GONE. It will hurt Thompson's game b/c he needs the court to be spread to be effective with his post moves and since Davis doesn't have very many post moves to speak of he will be probably be running after Thompson's rebounds.

[ncexnyc]

Cumae Sybl welcome to the wacky world of the ultimate homers. It's like this between every season. Duke is the only team whose players vastly improve over the offseason and our incoming freshman will all make immediate impacts. :D

From my point of view, the holes have an extremely talented frontcourt with the only question mark being whether or not Henson's slender frame can with-stand the rigors of ACC play, but as you've already pointed out he's done very well in all of the All Star games so I believe he'll do well.

Yes, they've lost Lawson, but they get back Ginyard who'll be very solid defensively and Drew doesn't have to be great at the PG slot. As long as he doesn't make a high number of turnovers all he has to do is feed the post players effectively and that team will be a contender.

Yes, they may be suspect from 3 pt land and that could lead to teams sagging heavily on them, but I'm sure Ol' Roy will have at least one kid who can shoot from deep to keep teams honest.

Prior to Ewill leaving I told all my nasty hole fan co-workers we'd sweep them this year, but now, with only two proven guards on our team I'd be happy with a split.

[Greg_Newton]

Yes, they've lost Lawson, but they get back Ginyard who'll be very solid defensively and Drew doesn't have to be great at the PG slot. As long as he doesn't make a high number of turnovers all he has to do is feed the post players effectively and that team will be a contender.

I just don't follow this logic. UNC has some long, nimble finishers, but hardly anyone with a proven back-to-the-basket game... besides Deon Thompson, who has always been the 3rd, 4th or 5th focus of the defense during his career, and has reportedly looked mediocre this summer. Ed Davis hasn't showed he can do much beside rebound and finish, and I don't see Henson or Zeller being dominant back-to-the-basket players. As for the Wears, they'll be lucky to see more than 15-20 mpg combined. Who exactly do you see as the dominant presence that just gets the ball on the block and goes to work every play?

Carolina will have a ton of talent, but you need a diverse skillset and players that complement each other to be a national contender, and I'm not convinced they have that just yet. Dexter Strickland is their X-factor, IMO... they really need someone who can create for their athletic finishers, because they have no one that can do that as of now.

One thing is for sure, K vs. Roy this year is going to be quite an interesting chess match to watch...

[ncexnyc]

I just don't follow this logic. UNC has some long, nimble finishers, but hardly anyone with a proven back-to-the-basket game... besides Deon Thompson, who has always been the 3rd, 4th or 5th focus of the defense during his career, and has reportedly looked mediocre this summer. Ed Davis hasn't showed he can do much beside rebound and finish, and I don't see Henson or Zeller being dominant back-to-the-basket players. As for the Wears, they'll be lucky to see more than 15-20 mpg combined. Who exactly do you see as the dominant presence that just gets the ball on the block and goes to work every play?

Carolina will have a ton of talent, but you need a diverse skillset and players that complement each other to be a national contender, and I'm not convinced they have that just yet. Dexter Strickland is their X-factor, IMO... they really need someone who can create for their athletic finishers, because they have no one that can do that as of now.

One thing is for sure, K vs. Roy this year is going to be quite an interesting chess match to watch...

I could be wrong, but I seem to recall Thompson posting some solid numbers at the start of the season last year when Hasbro was absent. Granted the competition wasn't the best, but I think he can handle the role of "go to guy" for the holes.

Your analysis of Davis is spot on, however his numbers in limited playing time were solid and if you project those into starter minutes, plus factor in the 1st year to 2nd year improvement everyone on this board is always talking about, then he too should be a very solid player.

Of course if you're one of those who think only Duke players get better during the offseason, well disregard everything I said.;)

[InSpades]

Just a few stats... UNC is losing 65% of their minutes played and 73% of their points scored from last year. Those numbers are pretty staggering. I'd be surprsied if any team lost that much from 1 year to the next and maintained a top performance. Duke in comparison is losing 40% of their minutes played and 36% of their scoring.

Granted UNC gets back Ginyard who would have played a lot more than he did if not for injury.

[shoutingncu]

As some have said, Larry Drew doesn't have to be as good as Ty Lawson. But can he be as good as senior year Quentin Thomas? Because Carolina has played without Lawson each of the last two seasons, and after losing to you all in Chapel Hill, the Thomas-then-Lawson led team didn't lose again until San Antonio. As Jay Bilas liked to say, Lawson was coming back to a better team than the one he left. In fact, if the regular season "title" (yes, I find it important and note-worthy; no, I do not claim any conference championship last season) were not on the line, I would very much like to have seen what the QT led team could have done in Durham in '08.

Quick sidenote (since I'm somewhat responding to multiple posts, I'm not quoting any): Someone said that Michigan State is being talked about as elite, but (s)he wasn't sure that after the beating taken in March, they would be a force. See 40-12, 2008.

Secondly, Carolina can absolutely fall back on 2006 as motivation for this season. We all know they lost more talent / scoring / bodies, and still put together a nice run that almost challenged for the top spot.

In fact, Duke should also look to Carolina '06 because the Heels didn't have a point guard that year, either. And yes, they had the future player of the year, but his back-up that season was Byron Sanders. Come to think of it, I recently re-watched that game, and Carolina put a small run together with QT at the point. So I guess it doesn't necessarily apply to Duke '10, since at least there was a scholarship point guard on roster.

So to recap/look ahead: Of course Carolina won't be as good as they were last season, but for them to still be pretty good (Elite Eight worthy, I'd optimistically speculate), then Larry Drew only needs to be as good as Quentin Thomas '08... or on occasion, '06.

[Cumae Sybl]

As some have said, Larry Drew doesn't have to be as good as Ty Lawson. But can he be as good as senior year Quentin Thomas? Because Carolina has played without Lawson each of the last two seasons, and after losing to you all in Chapel Hill, the Thomas-then-Lawson led team didn't lose again until San Antonio. As Jay Bilas liked to say, Lawson was coming back to a better team than the one he left. In fact, if the regular season "title" (yes, I find it important and note-worthy; no, I do not claim any conference championship last season) were not on the line, I would very much like to have seen what the QT led team could have done in Durham in '08.

Quick sidenote (since I'm somewhat responding to multiple posts, I'm not quoting any): Someone said that Michigan State is being talked about as elite, but (s)he wasn't sure that after the beating taken in March, they would be a force. See 40-12, 2008.

Secondly, Carolina can absolutely fall back on 2006 as motivation for this season. We all know they lost more talent / scoring / bodies, and still put together a nice run that almost challenged for the top spot.

In fact, Duke should also look to Carolina '06 because the Heels didn't have a point guard that year, either. And yes, they had the future player of the year, but his back-up that season was Byron Sanders. Come to think of it, I recently re-watched that game, and Carolina put a small run together with QT at the point. So I guess it doesn't necessarily apply to Duke '10, since at least there was a scholarship point guard on roster.

So to recap/look ahead: Of course Carolina won't be as good as they were last season, but for them to still be pretty good (Elite Eight worthy, I'd optimistically speculate), then Larry Drew only needs to be as good as Quentin Thomas '08... or on occasion, '06.

Re: 40-12, apples and oranges. UNC returned everybody that mattered from that team. You only lost QT, and he was ably replaced by Lawson, et al's maturation, the return of Frasor, and Drew.

That beatdown was a lesson for the UNC team about effort, heart, and defense, qualities that were frequently lacking from the team as a whole. They used that beat down to rally and focus, again while bringing everybody back.

MSU loses Goran Suton, and they are going to miss him, a lot. And, say one thing for MSU, they always play hard and play tough, so that beat down can't really motivate them the same way KU motivated you guys.

Besides, UNC's destruction of MSU was clinical. There weren't any insane runs or shooting displays. And MSU's problems were as much UNC's fault as MSU's fault.

Against KU last season, a very good team (KU) went on a hot streak that lasted several minutes. At the same time, another good team went Ice Cold and quit. Hans quit in the face of long, athletic defenders. Lawson quit in the face of capable defenders. No one could throw it in the ocean for like 15 minutes.

In other words, UNC shot themselves in the foot as much as KU shot them in the foot. Don't get me wrong, KU might still have won even with a better showing by UNC. And KU contributed to UNC's plight. But UNC had farther to come, and more to work with, than MSU from last year.

The hype, such as it is, around MSU seems dependant on Roe becoming a stud, and Raymar Morgan finally living up to the hype after 4 years. I'll beleive it when I see it. The Big 10 will be rough this year, and MSU might get knocked arround a little.

[RockyMtDevil]

I think the difficult thing in comparing UNC to Duke for the upcoming season is the context. We are comparing two different programs at two different life cycles. While both teams have serious question marks next season, UNC is coming off yet ANOTHER National Championship and is looking to rebuild. Duke is just barely keeping her head above the March waters, still hoping to have a break through season, one which hasn't happen in a long time (well, Duke time that is).

UNC is in far better shape than we are, both for next year's question marks and moving forward.

Is this infraction worthy I wonder?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

A few quick points...from my light blue and optimistic perspective, of course:)

I expect that Deon Thompson is going to be a beast inside for the Heels next season. UNC will have guys that can make the entry pass, and Deon has the best low post offensive game in the ACC and is a solid defender. As a senior, and out of TH's shadow, he will have the opportunity to make plays.

Davis will be beast number two inside, and will terrorize the lane. Both ends of the court. That you can count on.

Zeller will rotate in and the UNC frontcourt will not miss a beat. The best frontcourt in the country, much less the ACC.

Wing play is where it gets interesting. Henson is a stud, by all accounts, but a freshman is a freshman. Wild card is Graves, who is doing everything he's supposed to do to get back I've heard. Assuming he does, I expect he will make a bigger impact next year than people think at the 3.

Ginyard will be the glue guy at the 2 and the 3 as Strickland and Henson find their way, and become a 6th man by seasons end.

No worries from me about Drew. He plays D, can handle, has vision and is poised. He will be fine, he had a very strong freshman year from my perspective. In fact, I can see lots of lob dunks raining down on people next year from the Heels- set up courtesey of Mr. Drew.

It will not be the high scoring team you saw last year, but they will score. And it could be one of the best defensive teams the Heels have put on the floor in years.

If somebody plans on getting the Heels next season, better get them early. By ACC play they will be ready.

[shoutingncu]

If somebody plans on getting the Heels next season, better get them early. By ACC play they will be ready.

This is another fascinating aspect about next season's rivalry that several people have brought up.

If it's fair to say that UNC has a pretty high ceiling (maybe they get there, maybe they don't), then one would think that by season's end, they'd be playing their best ball.

For those that think a split is reasonable, and I certainly count myself among them, does Ginyard add his name to the list?

[Kedsy]

As some have said, Larry Drew doesn't have to be as good as Ty Lawson. But can he be as good as senior year Quentin Thomas?

IIRC, Thomas was the primary PG for 7 games in the middle of 2008. Of those 7, they lost to Duke at home, beat UVa by 1 and won two OT games (Fla St and Clemson), and looked pretty beatable most of the time. At the least, with a couple crazy bounces they could have lost 4 of the 7 games he started. This is with Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green on the team, as well as Thompson and Ginyard.

So, personally, I think if Drew is only as good as Thomas, UNC fans aren't going to be so happy next season.

[Cumae Sybl]

A few quick points...from my light blue and optimistic perspective, of course:)

I expect that Deon Thompson is going to be a beast inside for the Heels next season. UNC will have guys that can make the entry pass, and Deon has the best low post offensive game in the ACC and is a solid defender. As a senior, and out of TH's shadow, he will have the opportunity to make plays.

Davis will be beast number two inside, and will terrorize the lane. Both ends of the court. That you can count on.

Zeller will rotate in and the UNC frontcourt will not miss a beat. The best frontcourt in the country, much less the ACC.

Wing play is where it gets interesting. Henson is a stud, by all accounts, but a freshman is a freshman. Wild card is Graves, who is doing everything he's supposed to do to get back I've heard. Assuming he does, I expect he will make a bigger impact next year than people think at the 3.

Ginyard will be the glue guy at the 2 and the 3 as Strickland and Henson find their way, and become a 6th man by seasons end.

No worries from me about Drew. He plays D, can handle, has vision and is poised. He will be fine, he had a very strong freshman year from my perspective. In fact, I can see lots of lob dunks raining down on people next year from the Heels- set up courtesey of Mr. Drew.

It will not be the high scoring team you saw last year, but they will score. And it could be one of the best defensive teams the Heels have put on the floor in years.

If somebody plans on getting the Heels next season, better get them early. By ACC play they will be ready.

There is no way that Ginyard doesn't start and play big minutes all season. Neither Strickland nor McDonald is ready to supplant him. McDonald isn't athletic enough, and Strickland is an athletic slasher who is not a great outside shot. Basically, Ginyard lite, only 3-4 inches shorter.

Against Duke, Ginyard will play heavy minutes guarding Scheyer. If you, or the Tar Heel Nation is counting on a big contribution from Strick or McDonald, you are as doomed for disappointment as those on this board who dreamed of Elliot Williams dunking on the world next year.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Drew took much better care of the ball, especially second half of the season, than QT ever did, even as a senior.
He was much more confident on the floor than QT ever was as well.

[ACCBBallFan]

Though their coach is nowhere near as good, GA Tech with Favors and Lawal may have the best frontcourt of the three, just not the deepest.

My impression of most Duke boards is just the opposite. They tend to devalue what their own inbound frosh (valued them much more when they were being recruited than after they sign and look only to other newbies immediately) and how much improvements there will be frosh to soph, and anoint others, particularly UNC.

A guy like Miles who has bulked up to 245 gets labeled based on initial impressions as that being his high water mark. Experience of Lance, Nolan and Zoubek is also devalued with blind hopes that anybody new will be massive improvement, be it frosh or future recruits, never taking the time to appreciate what they have, mostly looking backward or forward and not at present.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

There is no way that Ginyard doesn't start and play big minutes all season. Neither Strickland nor McDonald is ready to supplant him. McDonald isn't athletic enough, and Strickland is an athletic slasher who is not a great outside shot. Basically, Ginyard lite, only 3-4 inches shorter.

Against Duke, Ginyard will play heavy minutes guarding Scheyer. If you, or the Tar Heel Nation is counting on a big contribution from Strick or McDonald, you are as doomed for disappointment as those on this board who dreamed of Elliot Williams dunking on the world next year.

No doubt Ginyard gets plenty of PT. And I read the other day that he thinks he is 90-100% now.

I have not seen many of the incoming freshmen play at all, like Strickland,McDonald, Kelly, and only a little of Henson and Plumlee in the AA games. So it's hard to really have a set opinion just yet.

But, this is the internet where opinions are easy...so from the youtube clips and from what I have read, it looks like Strickland could be the player the Heels get to step up next year. He has the best opportunity for prime playing time because of the 2g need. Henson can share with Ginyard and Graves at the 3, but the Heels will need some 2g play besides what Ginyard gives.

I read where Roy said Strickland was the most athletic 2g he had ever recruited. That's an impressive statement that has my attention. I am looking forward to seeing him play.

If the Heels make the final 4, my prediction is the starting line up looks like this come tourney time...

Deon Thompson
Ed Davis
John Henson
Dexter Strickland
Larry Drew

First off the bench...Ginyard,Zeller,Graves
I think either Watts or Mcdonald could see a few spot minutes too.

In reality, Ginyard would probably start as a senior, but thats how I see the crunch time players on the floor. I've had a major knee injury, and I have my doubts he will be the player he was before the injury. Hope I'm wrong.

BTW, what little I saw of Plumlee was also impressive. I liked him.

[Cumae Sybl]

No doubt Ginyard gets plenty of PT. And I read the other day that he thinks he is 90-100% now.

I have not seen many of the incoming freshmen play at all, like Strickland,McDonald, Kelly, and only a little of Henson and Plumlee in the AA games. So it's hard to really have a set opinion just yet.

But, this is the internet where opinions are easy...so from the youtube clips and from what I have read, it looks like Strickland could be the player the Heels get to step up next year. He has the best opportunity for prime playing time because of the 2g need. Henson can share with Ginyard and Graves at the 3, but the Heels will need some 2g play besides what Ginyard gives.

I read where Roy said Strickland was the most athletic 2g he had ever recruited. That's an impressive statement that has my attention. I am looking forward to seeing him play.

If the Heels make the final 4, my prediction is the starting line up looks like this come tourney time...

Deon Thompson
Ed Davis
John Henson
Dexter Strickland
Larry Drew

First off the bench...Ginyard,Zeller,Graves
I think either Watts or Mcdonald could see a few spot minutes too.

In reality, Ginyard would probably start as a senior, but thats how I see the crunch time players on the floor. I've had a major knee injury, and I have my doubts he will be the player he was before the injury. Hope I'm wrong.

BTW, what little I saw of Plumlee was also impressive. I liked him.

What Knee injury are you talking about? Ginyard had a broken foot. They take a while to heel (ha ha)(hey that works on a couple of levels) and can heal awkwardly. But with even competant medical care they usually get to 100 percent.

The main secret to letting one heal completely is to stay off it, at least as regarding Ginyard's injury (different than Boozer's, more severe). And he has done that.

He will be 100% come August, much less the start of practice.

And Strickland may be athletic, but he didn't show me anything in the McD's Game. He needs some work on his skill set to get serious burn for the Heels this year. He will play solid minutes, and be a solid contributor, but to count on him to be a contributing starter, over a defensive stud (always a NEED position for Roy Williams) like Ginyard is short sighted.

O probably won't be a problem for UNC this year. They can always use another defender, especially one tailor made to wreck havoc on one of Duke's only perimeter ball handlers.

[mcdukie]

The main secret to letting one heal completely is to stay off it, at least as regarding Ginyard's injury (different than Boozer's, more severe). And he has done that.

He will be 100% come August, much less the start of practice.

And Strickland may be athletic, but he didn't show me anything in the McD's Game. He needs some work on his skill set to get serious burn for the Heels this year. He will play solid minutes, and be a solid contributor, but to count on him to be a contributing starter, over a defensive stud (always a NEED position for Roy Williams) like Ginyard is short sighted.

O probably won't be a problem for UNC this year. They can always use another defender, especially one tailor made to wreck havoc on one of Duke's only perimeter ball handlers.

I know you are smart enough to not really judge a player by their performance in the McD's game. Our guys didn't really burn it up but we think they will do good things next year. Also, take my word, Strickland can play.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

What Knee injury are you talking about? Ginyard had a broken foot.

My bad. Spaced out thinking about my own knee and how I'll never be the same PG I used to be...:(

Here are some youtube videos of Strickland. I know they don't mean much, but Stevie Wonder could see he has some game...:)

Strickland (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nzu67aCNsoo)

Facial (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PW8FKuQQR2U&feature=related)

[Bob Green]

UNC's backcourt next year is worse than last year. So is Duke's backcourt. Even the most optimistic person on this board cannot claim that Duke's backcourt has improved from last year. We lost our two most athletic guys, and one of our key backups. We have no depth.


Okay, I'll bite. I believe the jury is still out on whether our backcourt will be improved from last year. Here is my reasoning:

Kyle Singler is going to play on the perimeter and take over the spot Gerald Henderson occupied. Singler will most likely perform equal to or better than Henderson.

Jon Scheyer is Jon Scheyer and I fully expect he will have a very solid senior season. He will probably handle the ball a lot all year like he did at the end of last season and as Coach Krzyzewski pointed out in his Summer News Conference we do not turn the ball over when Jon has it in his hands so I expect our backcourt performance will be better from the assists to turnover perspective.

Nolan Smith has shown flashes of superb play over his first two seasons. Once again referencing Coach Krzyzewski's comments, "We would not have won the ACC Tournament without Nolan Smith." If Nolan can put together a consistent season, and I believe the odds favor him showing vast improvement in the consistency arena, he will be a much better performer than last season.

The final question is where does Coach K find depth. The answer is mostly Ryan Kelly and how well he performs handling the ball and knocking down shots. I'm sure the adjustment to college ball is going to be a challenge but he has talent and might suprise some people. Additionally, Davidson will be back and could provide a couple of minutes here and there when needed.

So once you break the situation down and analyze the comments from Coach Krzyzewski's press conference, our backcourt situation doesn't look so dire.

[MChambers]

The final question is where does Coach K find depth. The answer is mostly Ryan Kelly and how well he performs handling the ball and knocking down shots. I'm sure the adjustment to college ball is going to be a challenge but he has talent and might suprise some people. Additionally, Davidson will be back and could provide a couple of minutes here and there when needed.

Please note that the Journal article on the press conference says that Coach K did not rule out the addition of another guard before the start of school.

[InSpades]

I think a key for UNC next year will be can they find some outside shooting. They lost around 200 3-pointers last year. It was one of the reasons they were so tough to guard, they had a solid inside game, a strong penetrator and 3 guys on the perimeter who shot 40% or better. Any 2 of those things makes for an effective offense in the college game but I don't think 1 will be enough (which is why Duke struggles sometimes on offense).

[Kedsy]

So once you break the situation down and analyze the comments from Coach Krzyzewski's press conference, our backcourt situation doesn't look so dire.

Well, while I agree with your analysis, to be fair to the naysayers it all boils down to who we can call "guards." If Kyle and Ryan (or even Lance or Olek) will be "guards" on next year's team, then the panic about having only two scholarship guards is misplaced. Tall people are allowed to be guards if they have the skills.

In my mind, the skills required to be a "guard" are outside shooting, good handle, and the ability to defend small, quick players. (Passing ability, too, but IMO all players on the court ought to be good passers.) We know Kyle can shoot and has a decent (but not great) handle, and we know Ryan won the McDonald's 3-point contest and supposedly has a good handle for a big man (although whether the "for a big man" qualifier means he's good enough to be considered a guard I don't know and actually am a little skeptical). The real issue is whether any of these guys can defend small, quick players, and we won't know that until the games start.

Like you, I'm not willing to throw in the towel yet. I'm looking forward to the upcoming season.

[SupaDave]

What Knee injury are you talking about? Ginyard had a broken foot. They take a while to heel (ha ha)(hey that works on a couple of levels) and can heal awkwardly. But with even competant medical care they usually get to 100 percent.

The main secret to letting one heal completely is to stay off it, at least as regarding Ginyard's injury (different than Boozer's, more severe). And he has done that.

He will be 100% come August, much less the start of practice.

And Strickland may be athletic, but he didn't show me anything in the McD's Game. He needs some work on his skill set to get serious burn for the Heels this year. He will play solid minutes, and be a solid contributor, but to count on him to be a contributing starter, over a defensive stud (always a NEED position for Roy Williams) like Ginyard is short sighted.

O probably won't be a problem for UNC this year. They can always use another defender, especially one tailor made to wreck havoc on one of Duke's only perimeter ball handlers.

(shakes head) We're not scared of Ginyard... ...and we'd much rather he shoot.

[SupaDave]

Well, while I agree with your analysis, to be fair to the naysayers it all boils down to who we can call "guards." If Kyle and Ryan (or even Lance or Olek) will be "guards" on next year's team, then the panic about having only two scholarship guards is misplaced. Tall people are allowed to be guards if they have the skills.

In my mind, the skills required to be a "guard" are outside shooting, good handle, and the ability to defend small, quick players. (Passing ability, too, but IMO all players on the court ought to be good passers.) We know Kyle can shoot and has a decent (but not great) handle, and we know Ryan won the McDonald's 3-point contest and supposedly has a good handle for a big man (although whether the "for a big man" qualifier means he's good enough to be considered a guard I don't know and actually am a little skeptical). The real issue is whether any of these guys can defend small, quick players, and we won't know that until the games start.

Like you, I'm not willing to throw in the towel yet. I'm looking forward to the upcoming season.

As Coach K said, he plays positionless basketball and we will be using more of a motion offense so the actual # of guards is a moot point.

[Kedsy]

As Coach K said, he plays positionless basketball and we will be using more of a motion offense so the actual # of guards is a moot point.

I agree with you on offense, but not on defense. If it turns out some combination of Singler, Thomas, Kelly, etc., can shutdown most opposing wing players, then Duke will surprise a lot of people next year (in a good way). If they can't, then the naysayers may have a point.

[gumbomoop]

I agree with your pre-transfer assessment of the team. 12-4 in the ACC seemed like a pretty reasonable estimate for a team that had a lot of talent but a good deal of question marks.

What I disagree with is your 11-5 and 12-4 guess AFTER losing Williams. So you see little-to-no dropoff despite losing one of our only two guys on the roster capable of defending quicker ACC guards? And one of our only three guys one the roster capable of defending guards in general? That seems HIGHLY optimistic to me.

I think somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6 in conference seems more like a reasonable range given the huge question mark introduced by the backcourt depth. And that's assuming no serious injuries to the backcourt. I think 11 or 12 ACC wins is the absolute best case scenario for a team with such a lack of depth in the backcourt.

You're correct to call my assessment of our prospects "highly optimistic"; I myself called me "wildly optimistic." I guess my optimism relies heavily on how weakened the ACC is next year, compared to this past season. All teams have major, major ?-marks. I'll admit that ours is the most unusual - truly a bizarre situation - but only in that sense is it a bigger ?-mark than those afflicting all - repeat: all - other teams.

Second, I was really impressed with MP2 in the 2 all-star games I watched. No, he didn't dominate, nothing close, but he's got multiple-game, good hands, good passer, touch, hops. I think he'll be very solid by mid-season, a star in the making.

I can't say I'd have wanted K to have to be as creative as he must be, but this is such a weird situation [despite K's presser-petulant denials - K's much, much better as a comic than as a "You media guys are idiots" guy], that it will be fascinating to watch.

Injury will kill us, yep; ditto for pretty much all key players on other teams.

Nolan: "You gotta play; no meek crap."

If my 12-4 is wildly optimistic, and it is, then your 8-8 is pretty pessimistic, given absence of obviously superior teams. But I'll agree that 10-6 would be a sensible compromise..... if only I were sensible.

[CDu]

You're correct to call my assessment of our prospects "highly optimistic"; I myself called me "wildly optimistic." I guess my optimism relies heavily on how weakened the ACC is next year, compared to this past season. All teams have major, major ?-marks. I'll admit that ours is the most unusual - truly a bizarre situation - but only in that sense is it a bigger ?-mark than those afflicting all - repeat: all - other teams.

Second, I was really impressed with MP2 in the 2 all-star games I watched. No, he didn't dominate, nothing close, but he's got multiple-game, good hands, good passer, touch, hops. I think he'll be very solid by mid-season, a star in the making.

I can't say I'd have wanted K to have to be as creative as he must be, but this is such a weird situation [despite K's presser-petulant denials - K's much, much better as a comic than as a "You media guys are idiots" guy], that it will be fascinating to watch.

Injury will kill us, yep; ditto for pretty much all key players on other teams.

Nolan: "You gotta play; no meek crap."

If my 12-4 is wildly optimistic, and it is, then your 8-8 is pretty pessimistic, given absence of obviously superior teams. But I'll agree that 10-6 would be a sensible compromise..... if only I were sensible.

We'll see. It just seems like you ratcheted up the level of optimism following Williams's departure. I hope your guess is right though.

Personally, I don't think 8-8 is incredibly pessimistic. I think 6-10 would be incredibly pessimistic. I listed 8-8 to 10-6 as my reasonable outcome range. So I'd say 6-10 is incredibly pessimistic and 12-4 is incredibly optimistic. That would make 9-7 my expected outcome, I guess.

Hopefully I'm wrong and the team does better than I anticipate. And I'll still be following the team in a die-hard manner, even though I don't anticipate the results being as good as in year's past.

[Cumae Sybl]

(shakes head) We're not scared of Ginyard... ...and we'd much rather he shoot.

A 6-6 senior taking over after a talented group of players exited the program, surounded by talented, but young and inexperienced players. Nothing to be scared of there.

I mean, no one else in the ACC was scared of Chris Carawell going into his senior year, and he hadn't shown much more, if any more, than Ginyard.

I have tried to be nice, and dance arround the following statement, but now I am going to lay it out.

Ginyard will be a nightmare for one Jon Scheyer for at least 2 games this year. Ginyard has spent his career being assigned to the oppositions best perimeter wing, as well as chasing around Wayne Ellington and Danny Green in practice. He is an athletic, strong, willing, and skilled defender. Exactly the type of player Jon has had trouble with in the past.

No, he isn't going to kill us by scoring the ball. I somehow think a Roy Williams team will find a way to score. Defense has always been Roy's problem, but Ginyard is a good defender, however much this board poo poos him. He would have started over Green last year, as he did their entire career, and Green was a nightmare for us the last 2 years.

I mentioned C-Well, but Nate James is a more apt comparision, even down to the year lost to injury. I love Jon and what he does, but Nate would have shut him down. Not completely, but somewhere in the range of 5-10pts, a couple of rebounds, and a very few assists.

If Ginyard even comes close to replicating that kind of D vs Jon, Duke is up boned creek without a tub of vaseline.

Ginyard may not have an All ACC first team year. But ALL ACC defensive squad is well within his grasp, and unfortunately, he is ideally put together to stop one of the guys that Duke can't afford to have stopped.

I love the team, and I think we can be competitive with all but the top 2-3 teams, but for that to happen Jon, Kyle, and Nolan have to be effective, and probably in that order. If a defender can take Jon out of the game with sticky defense, Duke is in real trouble. I fear Ginyard has the capability to do just that. He may be one of the 2-3 guys in conference with that capability, but he IS one of those guys and he happens to play for our biggest Rival.

I warn the board:

Sleep on Ginyard to your peril. He will surprise the conference next year.

[roywhite]

Such an enthusiastic account of the strong points of a Tar Heel role player...

What is the proper way to greet such a warning?

Thank you, sir, may we have another?

[gumbomoop]

A 6-6 senior taking over after a talented group of players exited the program, surounded by talented, but young and inexperienced players. Nothing to be scared of there.

I mean, no one else in the ACC was scared of Chris Carawell going into his senior year, and he hadn't shown much more, if any more, than Ginyard.

I have tried to be nice, and dance arround the following statement, but now I am going to lay it out.

Ginyard will be a nightmare for one Jon Scheyer for at least 2 games this year. Ginyard has spent his career being assigned to the oppositions best perimeter wing, as well as chasing around Wayne Ellington and Danny Green in practice. He is an athletic, strong, willing, and skilled defender. Exactly the type of player Jon has had trouble with in the past.

No, he isn't going to kill us by scoring the ball. I somehow think a Roy Williams team will find a way to score. Defense has always been Roy's problem, but Ginyard is a good defender, however much this board poo poos him. He would have started over Green last year, as he did their entire career, and Green was a nightmare for us the last 2 years.

I mentioned C-Well, but Nate James is a more apt comparision, even down to the year lost to injury. I love Jon and what he does, but Nate would have shut him down. Not completely, but somewhere in the range of 5-10pts, a couple of rebounds, and a very few assists.

If Ginyard even comes close to replicating that kind of D vs Jon, Duke is up boned creek without a tub of vaseline.

Ginyard may not have an All ACC first team year. But ALL ACC defensive squad is well within his grasp, and unfortunately, he is ideally put together to stop one of the guys that Duke can't afford to have stopped.

I love the team, and I think we can be competitive with all but the top 2-3 teams, but for that to happen Jon, Kyle, and Nolan have to be effective, and probably in that order. If a defender can take Jon out of the game with sticky defense, Duke is in real trouble. I fear Ginyard has the capability to do just that. He may be one of the 2-3 guys in conference with that capability, but he IS one of those guys and he happens to play for our biggest Rival.

I warn the board:

Sleep on Ginyard to your peril. He will surprise the conference next year.

Rather than excerpting your detailed post, I've left it whole, precisely because I agree that posters need to pay attention to how good MG has been defensively. Assuming as I do that last season's injury is now "heeled," I'd nominate him as pre-season CDPOY. Competition from.... well, Alabi, others, but MG is superb on D.

But is it true that posters have "poo poo-ed" MG? Well, jeez, if so [though I doubt it] that's dumb, unless someone was simply, if simplistically, dumping on the Heels, just on general principle.

Your warning is justified. JS will be fiercely challenged.

Allow me to dissent on your assertion that "we can be competitive with all but the top 2-3 teams." Which conference team, other than UNC, can Duke not compete with next season? [I assume you meant conference teams.] And, to ask the obvious, can Duke not even "compete" with UNC next year?

[Cumae Sybl]

Such an enthusiastic account of the strong points of a Tar Heel role player...

What is the proper way to greet such a warning?

Thank you, sir, may we have another?

He's not a perfect player, not by a long shot. But he is dangerous. He is perhaps more dangerous to Duke than he is to any other team in the conference.

During his frosh year, he played with 4 guys who were eventual first round selections. For the two years after that, he played with 3 first round selections, and probably a fourth next year when Thompson may be a late first round selection.

Who really knows what he can do. He has sublimated his offensive game in order to help his team by playing great D and playing unselfish, team ball.

If he were a Duke player, we would be talking about him having a breakout year and how he would surprise the conference, while extolling his team first approach and unselfishness. But when it is a player on another team then it means he is an untalented bum who won't help the team at all.

This board has a real bad habit of denigrating opposing players and ignoring their true worth, and assuming they won't improve. Last summer this board was talking about how Ty couldn't shoot threes and that Defense would be UNC's downfall. Well, Ty got capable from the perimeter and UNC's chemistry was great all year. (At the same time, most of those same posters were talking about how our post players' improvement would make Duke a serious FF contender)

Now people are saying that Ginyard, a guy who would have started for UNC last year, is a bum. Well, for our, and Jon's, sake, I hope I am wrong.

For a poster higher up the board:
As for G-Hll and Battier, neither were the saints we remember them to be when they were HS seniors. Yes, they got good grades and were well rounded student athletes. So are tons of incomming scholarship athletes in the NCAA each year. What cemented Battier and Hill's canonization was their continued, high level success at Duke for 4 years on the basketball court to go along with the academics and other stuff.

And you most certainly did say that secretaries were as important as teachers. Personally, I think schools would function better without secretaries than without teacher. If you disagree, I suggest you tell your children's teachers your views, and see how that affects your kid's GPA. Would you have made a similiar statement to a teacher or professor when you were in school? If so you are braver than I.

[Cumae Sybl]

Allow me to dissent on your assertion that "we can be competitive with all but the top 2-3 teams." Which conference team, other than UNC, can Duke not compete with next season? [I assume you meant conference teams.] And, to ask the obvious, can Duke not even "compete" with UNC next year?


Sorry, I was unclear. I meant the top 2-3 teams NATIONALLY. KY and KU will give us a lot of trouble. We can play with any conference team. I think it will take a very solid effort to beat the Heels, but it is very doable.

I think that even a good game vs the top national teams, which are well above every body else, would not be enough. Every team is beatable, but we would need career nights from role players even to beat the top teams.

[COYS]

This board has a real bad habit of denigrating opposing players and ignoring their true worth, and assuming they won't improve. Last summer this board was talking about how Ty couldn't shoot threes and that Defense would be UNC's downfall. Well, Ty got capable from the perimeter and UNC's chemistry was great all year. (At the same time, most of those same posters were talking about how our post players' improvement would make Duke a serious FF contender)



Is it really any surprise that a Duke board would be more likely to say that Ty Lawson wouldn't improve his shooting (he had shown no significant improvement after two full seasons at UNC)? It's impossible to find a truly neutral message board, but of all the college basketball boards out there, I'd say that DBR has more people who are willing to engage in insightful discussion about the merits of opposing players, even opposing players from an arch-rival. No one's scared of Ginyard, but no one is writing him off, either. Carrawell is a relatively rare exception, not a rule, for role player turning into a star so late in a career, so I don't think people on this board are unfairly undervaluing Ginyard with the consensus that he will be a strong defender, score a little bit more than he has in the past, but is unlikely to breakout and average a ton of points per game. The Nate James comparison, if it proves to be accurate, isn't all that terrifying, either. James was a g/f playing perimeter defense on a team with ridiculous offensive firepower in Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, and Boozer. He simply spotted up, hit corner threes, and took other opportunistic buckets. Ginyard will be surrounded by a young and inexperienced backcourt and will not have the luxury of playing alongside a player of Williams caliber. I love Nate James. But I don't think anyone here would disagree that Duke would not have been as good in 2001 if he had to log significant minutes as a primary offensive threat in the backcourt. I think the same can be said of Ginyard.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

A 6-6 senior taking over after a talented group of players exited the program, surounded by talented, but young and inexperienced players. Nothing to be scared of there.

I mean, no one else in the ACC was scared of Chris Carawell going into his senior year, and he hadn't shown much more, if any more, than Ginyard.

I have tried to be nice, and dance arround the following statement, but now I am going to lay it out.

Ginyard will be a nightmare for one Jon Scheyer for at least 2 games this year. Ginyard has spent his career being assigned to the oppositions best perimeter wing, as well as chasing around Wayne Ellington and Danny Green in practice. He is an athletic, strong, willing, and skilled defender. Exactly the type of player Jon has had trouble with in the past.

No, he isn't going to kill us by scoring the ball. I somehow think a Roy Williams team will find a way to score. Defense has always been Roy's problem, but Ginyard is a good defender, however much this board poo poos him. He would have started over Green last year, as he did their entire career, and Green was a nightmare for us the last 2 years.

I mentioned C-Well, but Nate James is a more apt comparision, even down to the year lost to injury. I love Jon and what he does, but Nate would have shut him down. Not completely, but somewhere in the range of 5-10pts, a couple of rebounds, and a very few assists.

If Ginyard even comes close to replicating that kind of D vs Jon, Duke is up boned creek without a tub of vaseline.

Ginyard may not have an All ACC first team year. But ALL ACC defensive squad is well within his grasp, and unfortunately, he is ideally put together to stop one of the guys that Duke can't afford to have stopped.

I love the team, and I think we can be competitive with all but the top 2-3 teams, but for that to happen Jon, Kyle, and Nolan have to be effective, and probably in that order. If a defender can take Jon out of the game with sticky defense, Duke is in real trouble. I fear Ginyard has the capability to do just that. He may be one of the 2-3 guys in conference with that capability, but he IS one of those guys and he happens to play for our biggest Rival.

I warn the board:

Sleep on Ginyard to your peril. He will surprise the conference next year.
You write interesting and forceful posts. Where did you go to college?

[RazzyBailey31]

UNC will not be close to a top 5 team next year. That is a ridiculous prediction. You lose 3 1st rounders and 4 draft picks overall including the ACC Player of the Year and one their best players ever and they're top 5 team? Highly, highly unlikely. They would have to get some major, unexpected star production from their backcourt Freshmen to even come close and that rarely happens. Think of the amount of points and attention Lawson, Ellington, and Green generated last year while opening up the middle for post play. Drew is certainly no Lawson and has proven nothing so far in limited mintues. Their backcourt will be young and unproven. You never know how freshmen will translate from the high school game. The only proven commodity is their frontcourt that will definetly be very good. That will only be very good though if the backcourt can generate some offense which is nothing more than a guess at this point. Otherwise, teams will be able to sag off to clog the middle to contain Davis and Thompson. A ton of question marks for them. Duke on the other hand has a thin backcourt, but is very experienced across the board. The league will be wide open, but I expect us to bring home ACC Title #18 next year.

[Bob Green]

UNC will not be close to a top 5 team next year. That is a ridiculous prediction.

I think you might be underestimating Ol' Roy and the returning players. While I do not believe it is a given that Carolina is a top 5 team, it certainly isn't ridiculous to state they have top 5 potential.


Drew is certainly no Lawson and has proven nothing so far in limited mintues.

As Wheat has pointed out, Drew takes care of the ball and that is a vital commodity in a point guard. Plus, he will be a sophomore and we all can draft a laundry list of past players who demonstrated incredible development between their freshman and sophomore seasons. Drew has the potential to show us all a lot this season. There's that word again...potential.


You never know how freshmen will translate from the high school game.

Exactly! Which means both Strickland and McDonald may languish on the bench as Carolina struggles, but it also means Strickland or McDonald could earn a spot in the starting line-up and light it up. John Henson appears to be the real deal and could add to an already impressive frontcourt. Then again maybe he rides the pine.


A ton of question marks for them. Duke on the other hand has a thin backcourt, but is very experienced across the board. The league will be wide open, but I expect us to bring home ACC Title #18 next year.

There are a ton of question marks for Carolina and Duke as well as almost every other team out there. However, I like your optimism and hope your prediction is correct.

[NSDukeFan]

Is it really any surprise that a Duke board would be more likely to say that Ty Lawson wouldn't improve his shooting (he had shown no significant improvement after two full seasons at UNC)? It's impossible to find a truly neutral message board, but of all the college basketball boards out there, I'd say that DBR has more people who are willing to engage in insightful discussion about the merits of opposing players, even opposing players from an arch-rival. No one's scared of Ginyard, but no one is writing him off, either. Carrawell is a relatively rare exception, not a rule, for role player turning into a star so late in a career, so I don't think people on this board are unfairly undervaluing Ginyard with the consensus that he will be a strong defender, score a little bit more than he has in the past, but is unlikely to breakout and average a ton of points per game. The Nate James comparison, if it proves to be accurate, isn't all that terrifying, either. James was a g/f playing perimeter defense on a team with ridiculous offensive firepower in Williams, Battier, Dunleavy, and Boozer. He simply spotted up, hit corner threes, and took other opportunistic buckets. Ginyard will be surrounded by a young and inexperienced backcourt and will not have the luxury of playing alongside a player of Williams caliber. I love Nate James. But I don't think anyone here would disagree that Duke would not have been as good in 2001 if he had to log significant minutes as a primary offensive threat in the backcourt. I think the same can be said of Ginyard.

Nice post. Glad to hear K excited for next year, and not worried about lack of 1s or 2s as he feels he has good basketball players.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

UNC has a lot to prove next season.
Nobody is going to roll over, and they will likely take a couple of thumpin's along the way as a young team.

But I ask the question... If they are not a top 5 team, just which 5 out there are likely to be better? Because surely you have them at #6, right?

And who is going to want to see them come tourney time?

One thing I've learned over the years is that every year's different. Last year is over and no two teams are the same year to year.

I think we pretty much know what we are likley to see from these players...Thompson,Davis,Ginyard....and it's all good.

I think you will be surprised that Drew, Zeller and Graves will play at a higher level than you've considered.

Stickland looks to be able to handle and take people off the dribble and Henson looks good everywhere, and their style of play looks like a good fit, time will tell.

UNC will block lots of shots, be tough to shoot over and swallow rebounds next year while starting their offense with defense. They will run, count on that. If a team can force them in the half court, I could see them struggling some, but good luck with that if you are not Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova or possibly Duke.

Here is an interesting pre-season perspective of the Heels (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/162509-the-return-of-marcus-ginyard-your-2009-10-north-carolina-tar-heels)....totally off, IMO, but interesting.

...as for Duke, I think people are underestimating Nolan Smith coming into next season, and the impact both Plumlees will have.

Lace 'em up!

[Greg_Newton]

...Here is an interesting pre-season perspective of the Heels (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/162509-the-return-of-marcus-ginyard-your-2009-10-north-carolina-tar-heels)....totally off, IMO, but interesting.

...as for Duke, I think people are underestimating Nolan Smith coming into next season, and the impact both Plumlees will have.

Lace 'em up!

You know, as unorthodox as many of Duke and Carolina's lineups will no doubt be next season, some of them will actually be eerily similar on a position-by-position basis. A 5 on 5 game with Mason Plumlee vs. Davis, Kelly vs. Henson, Singler vs. Thompson, Smith vs. Strickland, and Scheyer vs. Drew would not only be a pretty evenly matched game, but every matchup would be very exciting to watch.

There will certainly be disparities between Duke and UNC when it comes to depth, experience, and skill level at certain positions, but I expect us to have 2 or 3 quite fun games against one another next year!

[RazzyBailey31]

I think you might be underestimating Ol' Roy and the returning players. While I do not believe it is a given that Carolina is a top 5 team, it certainly isn't ridiculous to state they have top 5 potential.


One poster stated earlier in the thread that UNC will be top 5 again as if it's certain on this day in early summer. That is ridiculous. Do they have the potential? Sure, but they'd have to get alot of unexpected production from unproven players. We have the potential too, but the same goes for us.


As Wheat has pointed out, Drew takes care of the ball and that is a vital commodity in a point guard. Plus, he will be a sophomore and we all can draft a laundry list of past players who demonstrated incredible development between their freshman and sophomore seasons. Drew has the potential to show us all a lot this season. There's that word again...potential.


Roy's offense begins and ends with the point guard. They go as the point goes. All I've seen from Drew is turnovers and the ability to bring the ball up the court. That won't cut it. Can he hit the open and contested jumper? I haven't seen it. Can he finish in traffic? I haven't seen it. Can he push the ball without turning it over? I haven't seen it. Can he take defenders off the dribble, drive the lane, and find open teammates? I haven't see it. He has ALOT to prove. Will he prove he can? Maybe, maybe not. Nothing more than guessing at this point. On top of this, they enter the season with no back up point. That is vital. Roy always wants 2 points on the roster. What happens if Drew isn't getting it done, gets in foul trouble, or when he's playing heavy mintues and tiring out and can't push the ball in that fast paced offense? Who runs the point then? Their entire offense counts on that fast pace. Then you have to put in a SG there out of position and your whole offense breaks down. See how silly this top 5 stuff is at this point?


There are a ton of question marks for Carolina and Duke as well as almost every other team out there. However, I like your optimism and hope your prediction is correct.


No doubt. They just have more at this point.

[ACCBBallFan]

Okay, I'll bite. I believe the jury is still out on whether our backcourt will be improved from last year. Here is my reasoning:

Kyle Singler is going to play on the perimeter and take over the spot Gerald Henderson occupied. Singler will most likely perform equal to or better than Henderson.

Jon Scheyer is Jon Scheyer and I fully expect he will have a very solid senior season. He will probably handle the ball a lot all year like he did at the end of last season and as Coach Krzyzewski pointed out in his Summer News Conference we do not turn the ball over when Jon has it in his hands so I expect our backcourt performance will be better from the assists to turnover perspective.

Nolan Smith has shown flashes of superb play over his first two seasons. Once again referencing Coach Krzyzewski's comments, "We would not have won the ACC Tournament without Nolan Smith." If Nolan can put together a consistent season, and I believe the odds favor him showing vast improvement in the consistency arena, he will be a much better performer than last season.

The final question is where does Coach K find depth. The answer is mostly Ryan Kelly and how well he performs handling the ball and knocking down shots. I'm sure the adjustment to college ball is going to be a challenge but he has talent and might suprise some people. Additionally, Davidson will be back and could provide a couple of minutes here and there when needed.

So once you break the situation down and analyze the comments from Coach Krzyzewski's press conference, our backcourt situation doesn't look so dire.
Bob, I think you answered the offensive depth part of the question. coach K answered the defensive depth of the question, Lance Thomas.

I'm not sure I get what the News & Observer writer is getting at here:

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/story/810022.html

"Thomas, who Krzyzewski said could be Duke's “best defender” at multiple positions, may get a little less help inside from the freshmen than he might have been expecting."

The writer either does not listen well or has an agenda. When K speaks of Lance being the best defender, he is not limiting it to defending PFs in lieu of the frosh or Kyle but rather SFs and even SG and PGs if necessary, depending on the three other guys' foul/injury status and need for some occasional rest.

That's the point the writer missed that between Singler and Lance the frosh can play the PF slot at both ends of the floor, Singler can play SF/SG at both ends and Lance can defend SFs/SGs (even if not labeled "Guard" or "perimeter" which is kind of ironic since he is guarding the perimeter). Lance is not much of an Offensive threat whether that be at PF or SF.

My personal feeling is that Lance can do this quite well but will draw some fouls in the process thus limiting him to about the cumulative 20-25 MPG to provide rest that the three perimeter guys need/will get due to Nolan sometimes also being in foul trouble and averaging 25-30 to sum to about 50 for the two best defenders and the other 70 to Scheyer-Singler.

I think the writer is so accustomed to the label front line for Kyle-Lance-Zoubek that even when he can get used to the idea of Lance defends SFs he views it as then Kyle defends PFs rather than taking it all the way to point in his words where K bristled at thoughts of labeling guards, forwards, front court etc.

If anything when Kyle has to play SG, the frosh play even more not less with Lance guarding the SF and Mason/Ryan and or both guarding the PF and possibly the center too if not Miles/Z there.

The frosh both have an Offensive game similar to Kyle as a frosh and can defend the bigger PF and also space/spread the floor offensively while Lance/Kyle defend SF and SG/PG when necessary if Jon or Nolan is out of game.

If matchups are too wrong to offset at other end, Jordan Davidson is the third guard, but my guess is coach K goes with the Singler/Thomas combo first, except in mop up roles where Jordan Davidson logs some PT.

[ACCBBallFan]

With resepct to the Marcus Ginyard will shut doiwn Jon Scheyer discussion, seems we go thru that every year whether it is Jon or Greg being too slow for UNC guards.

Duke losses to UNC have been due to differences in post, not the guard margin, though Lawson was a force to be reckoned with and Ellington rather than Ginyard may have been assigned to Jon, but a little history the last 6 games.

Marcus of course did not play the two most recent games

JS GP
24 DNP much
20 8
14 15
17 18
10 21
26 15
18.5 15.4 average

[Bob Green]

Bob, I think you answered the offensive depth part of the question. coach K answered the defensive depth of the question, Lance Thomas.

Yeah I was remiss in not including Lance Thomas in my comments. I guess my deep thoughts :rolleyes: tend to be offensive centric. LT will definitely be a factor this year and I need to keep reminding myself of that fact when I'm feeding my daily off-season analysis obsession.

[ACCBBallFan]

Marcus has actually done surprisingly well offensively vs Duke, proibably because they had to pay so much attention to doubling Hansbrough, containing Lawson and Ellington and taking their chances on others. Brandan Wright of course had a feast but this is regarding guards, adn Tyler/Terry usually did very well, while Green did fairly poorly soph and junior years vis a vis Gerald until his senior year, and often had to concentrate on Kyle

It also took two years before Ellington performed at expected levels in rivalry games:

TL WE DG MG
13 16 12 dnp
25 15 15 dnp
dnp 08 03 16
12 03 02 13
06 06
06 12
16.7 10.5 7.3 11.8

So with the other post you can see that Greg and Jon held their own versus UNC guards

[Wheat/"/"/"]

RazzyBailey31....

At this point...potential is all we can discuss about any team.

Drew had a 3 to 1 assist/turnover ratio after Lawson got hurt, and only had 1 turnover in his final 60 minutes of play last year. Keep in mind that was against conference and tournement competition.

He turned it over early in the season and adjusted as the season wore on. You seem to only remember his early struggles...the freshmanitis.

I saw him go to the rim and finish several times very strong, but granted, he didn't do it that often. It wasn't his role last season. Same with the lack of shooting.

This year will be different, it's his team to run. The thing I really liked about him was his sense of timing on his entry passes. He was absolutly the best on the team at getting the ball inside at the right time and spot. That will be key next year.

This kid can play.

BTW, I spent last night searching for video of the Wear twins because I have yet to see them and was pretty impressed for what little I could find. They had good hands for big kids, which is the first thing I look for. Showed a little court vision too.

Greg Newton....
This year will be fun. There is lots of flexibility with match ups on both sides.

[RazzyBailey31]

^Some teams have more proven players to discuss. Potential is fun, but alot of the time you set yourself up for disappointment. To each his own. All I'm saying is top 5 at this point is beyond silly. Some of your light blue brothers I work with, etc aren't as confident as you are about Drew. Of course he grew up a bit through the season last year like any Freshmen, but he hasn't shown me he can lead that kind of offense especially one as dependent on the point guard as you are. Not to mention he has no backup. Everyone seems to be overlooking that important factor. We shall see.

[ACCBBallFan]

I tend to agree with Razzy that UNC albeit with loads of talent even after losing 4 championship players, still has as many unanswered questions.

if that odd mix of Duke all forwards except Smith, Scheyer and Zoubek were last year, I could see about mid tier ACC finish, but who besides UNC, roster for roster is going to be the other three or more ACC teams to lap Duke into 5th place or worse ACC finish?

Starting from last year's top, after UNC who won 13 and NCAA, lost a ton but will still be loaded with potential and compete for top honors in ACC.

Duke 11 wins, key losses Henderson and Williams, and will miss Paulus for guard depth, assuming Lance Thomas can play McClure role instead of being an imitation center

Wake also 11 wins, even more key losses Teague, Johnson and Hale, have a senior laden team but never know which Chas McFarland will show up, probably about equal again.

FSU 10 wins lost Toney Douglas their heart and soul on both ends and Echefu after losing some solid guards the year before. still not sold on coach Hamilton. Snaer will be good but any better than Mason/Ryan?

Clemson 9 wins, will again be pretty good in first half of year with Booker but lost KC Rivers, Ogelsby which hurts their shooting and in former's case their defense.

BC also 9 wins but lost their heart and soul in Tyrese Rice, but do return a lot of role players who are entering their junior year.

MD 7 wins, only loses fifth year guy Dave Neal, returns some good seniors in Vasquez, Hayes and Milbourne but even more dependent than UNC and Duke on freshmen bigs who are not as highly rated. Sweaty can pull an occasional upset vs. UNC or Duke but then lose to mid tier or lower ACC teams more often.

Miami 7 wins loses their heart and soul McClinton plus Jimmy Graham. Perhaps DeQuan Jones will do something this year, not sold on Haith either on my other in state FL ACC team.

VA Tech 7 wins loses AD Vassallo, Diakite and Thorns still have Delaney and Allen. Seth Greenberg usually ends up with better ACC record than people expect.

NC State 6 wins loses Costner, Fells, and McCauley, still have Tracy Smith and a couple of role players, and not sold on Red Coat either.

UVA 4 wins new coach, Landesbury and then what? lost Diane and Sorroye who did little in his 5 years.

GA Tech 2 wins, did pick up Favors, but lost Clinch, even less confidence in Paul Hewitt to get them to ever win on the road.

FSU and GA Tech always look great athletically on paper but their coaches never quite get them to the promised land.

So even though this is a reloading year for UNC and Duke gotta think they are as usual two of the top 3 ACC teams again, with their coaches and winning tradition being the difference.

I went into detail on another thread that the ACC unbalanced schedule should not be a major factor this year, with Clemson having the most difficult schedule of who they play twice and Wake and Miami having the easier routes.

142 Clemson

141 Duke
140 UNC
140 FSU
139 BC
138 UVA
137 MD
137 GA Tech

136 VA Tech
136 NC St.

134 Miami
133 Wake

Other than swapping UVA and Wake the better ACC teams play the tougher unbalanced schedule this year and the lesser teams play a more favorable schedule. So not much of a power shift based solely on that God awful ACC Unbalanced schedule.

[gumbomoop]

if that odd mix of Duke all forwards except Smith, Scheyer and Zoubek were last year, I could see about mid tier ACC finish, but who besides UNC, roster for roster is going to be the other three or more ACC teams to lap Duke into 5th place or worse ACC finish?

So even though this is a reloading year for UNC and Duke gotta think they are as usual two of the top 3 ACC teams again, with their coaches and winning tradition being the difference.

I've excerpted only a bit of ACCBBFan's excellent post [#76]. And I'll spare readers a total repeat of my own previous posts on this thread {#20 & 55], and just add this: as admittedly "wildly optimistic" re our prospects for next season, my optimism stems, in large part, from the come-down in quality for the ACC compared to '08-'09.

I keep thinking about this because more skeptical [note I did not say "negative," for they aren't, mostly] posters make good points, too. It's tough to handicap the ACC next year, maybe more than usual. Others have the same feeling?

Anyhow, this conf-wide weakness, relative to last few years, has a lot to do with [B]every team having noticeable ?-marks; so ACCBBF is spot on in insisting that skeptics be more specific [just for purposes of spirited repartee, you understand] in identifying the teams that will top Duke, and why. Who's clearly better on paper, and why are their ?-marks not so problematic as ours? [Another admission: our ?-marks are "weirder," or something, than those of other teams.] Where has ACCBBBF fallen short in her/his specific analysis?

Have we semi-to-wild optimists imbibed too much of the K-Duke Kool Aid [a syndrome perhaps best labeled K-Duke-double-drunk]? Ok, but prove it, with a few details.

You got nothin' better to do; and verbal fireworks are less lethal, usually, than that crap you're gonna put a match to this eve.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

My optimism as a UNC fan for the upcoming season stems from the quality I expect from inside play.

Friends have been telling me just this past week that 7'0 Tyler Zeller has put on about 15lbs and is playing very well over the summer. (I can't confirm). If it's possible, TZ has been under the radar when discussions come up about UNC's key players, but we know he has big time talent. Everyone assumes Deon and Davis will start, but we may not see that if TZ has indeed gotten stronger. Either way, those three, along with what looks like quality talent from the Wears inside are going to pressure everyones frontcourt.

You guys are right, there are plenty of backcourt/wing questions surrounding UNC this pre-season. But it's not like there is not talent there and one thing we can be pretty sure of is this is one of the strongest frontcourts in the country, if not the strongest.

We should out rebound everyone, and this looks to be a good shot blocking team.

My biggest concern is overall team ball handling. Beyond Drew, and possibly Strickland, it's average. UNC might turn it over a lot this year trying to put the ball on the floor too much. I expect this team to move the ball with the pass, not the dribble, more than in the past.

Almost always, the best teams are those that control the game from the inside out. UNC can do that.

....BTW, really, really not comfortable as Christian Laettner

[gumbomoop]

My optimism as a UNC fan for the upcoming season stems from the quality I expect from inside play.

Friends have been telling me just this past week that 7'0 Tyler Zeller has put on about 15lbs and is playing very well over the summer. (I can't confirm). If it's possible, TZ has been under the radar when discussions come up about UNC's key players, but we know he has big time talent. Everyone assumes Deon and Davis will start, but we may not see that if TZ has indeed gotten stronger. Either way, those three, along with what looks like quality talent from the Wears inside are going to pressure everyones frontcourt.

You guys are right, there are plenty of backcourt/wing questions surrounding UNC this pre-season. But it's not like there is not talent there and one thing we can be pretty sure of is this is one of the strongest frontcourts in the country, if not the strongest.

We should out rebound everyone, and this looks to be a good shot blocking team.

My biggest concern is overall team ball handling. Beyond Drew, and possibly Strickland, it's average. UNC might turn it over a lot this year trying to put the ball on the floor too much. I expect this team to move the ball with the pass, not the dribble, more than in the past.

Almost always, the best teams are those that control the game from the inside out. UNC can do that.

....BTW, really, really not comfortable as Christian Laettner

(1) Wheat, you gotta post lots, soon, to get beyond Laettner to..... say, Art Heyman, or somebody more pleasing to UNC folks.

(2) Zeller - I remember you or another UNC fan saying last year that Zeller was more impressive early on than Davis. That's ominous, if true. I could see he's good, so no doubt UNC is frontcourt-loaded.

(3) I'm not quite so critical of Drew as some, and UNC certainly has more perimeter depth than Duke -who doesn't? - but it's a big comedown from Lawson. Do I recall Ginyard playing backup to Lawson at some point when Frasor went out? Is Strickland #2 pg?

(4) With EWill's departure, seems certain that UNC will be consensus preseason ACC #1; and they appear to be only team that could conceivably "run away with" ACC reg season #1. Still, I wouldn't predict they'd come in at, say, 13-3, with several teams tied for 2d at 10-6. I've still got Duke as battling them for #1, with maybe GaTech, depending......

(5) Seems to me nationally that KU, MichSt, UK will be consensus top 3. I'd guess Duke will fall out of pre-season consensus top 10, to maybe 11-13. I'd think UNC will be 7-8-ish, fighting Texas, 'Nova, Purdue, Butler (??) for higher.

(6) Say something positive about Duke's prospects, so I'll continue to pay attention to you. And so Laettner won't put the curse on you.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

(1) Wheat, you gotta post lots, soon, to get beyond Laettner to..... say, Art Heyman, or somebody more pleasing to UNC folks.

(2) Zeller - I remember you or another UNC fan saying last year that Zeller was more impressive early on than Davis. That's ominous, if true. I could see he's good, so no doubt UNC is frontcourt-loaded.

(3) I'm not quite so critical of Drew as some, and UNC certainly has more perimeter depth than Duke -who doesn't? - but it's a big comedown from Lawson. Do I recall Ginyard playing backup to Lawson at some point when Frasor went out? Is Strickland #2 pg?

(6) Say something positive about Duke's prospects, so I'll continue to pay attention to you. And so Laettner won't put the curse on you.


Zeller did beat out Davis for time last season before the injury. Of course Davis got better/more confident as the season went on and Zeller came back looking tentitive. Its a good problem to have to see which one plays the most.

I think Strickland ends up spelling Drew at PG, if he can adjust to take care of the ball against college defensive pressure. If he struggles, it will be Ginyard by default. I expect Drew to play around 30 minutes a game.

About Duke...Not much I can say about prospects, I haven't seen much of them. I did like Mason Plumblee's energy in an AA game I saw.

Scheyer is one of my favorite players in the ACC. He gets the most of his abilities.
I like Singler's game. He's tough, but he needs to stay on the wing.
Nolan Smith is a player too. If he can learn to contain his game...make better decisions... he has the talent to have a breakout year.

[ACCBBallFan]

I have no problem whether people pick Duke 1 and Unc 2 or UNC 1 and Duke 2 in ACC this year as both will be competitive for top quadrant.

My issue is more when people say just because Duke only has two guards not counting Jordan Davidson or Kyle at SG for perhaps 15 MPG, that automatically relegates them to second tier.

Last year , maybe so, this year, who besides UNC has an equal or better roster first 8 guys, or less question marks, and if only even, is their coach, ability to win on road or winning tradition anywhere near as good to push Duke back into middle of the pack?

[Bob Green]

....this year, who besides UNC has an equal or better roster first 8 guys....,?

Duke has the ability to place a tremendous amount of experience onto the court:

Singler - 70 career starts/played in 71 games
Scheyer - 68 career starts/played in 104 games
Thomas - 62 career starts/played in 100 games
Smith - 22 career starts/played in 68 games
Zoubek - 21 career starts/played in 93 games

Experience is the great equalizer in college basketball.

Bob

[gumbomoop]

Sorry I can't post a link to this early [6/17/09] Lunardi bracketology [limited options on local library computer], but it's worth a look for some weird stuff. Go to ESPN College BBall and find Lunardi link.

This was prior to EWill departure. At that moment, as several of us have predicted, some experts [Lunardi, yes?] had following top 4: KU, MichSt, UK, Texas; 5-8 [ie., 2-seeds] 'Nova, Purdue, UNC, Duke. So, yes, surely Duke will slip to probably a 3-seed in Lunardi's next bracketology, but that hardly indicates catastrophe, for a 3-seed is borderline top-10.

Weird, how explain this? He's got 8 ACC teams in, including [!] Miami. Huh? FSU one of last out; no mention of VTech, NCS, UVa.

[ACCBBallFan]

To Bob Green's point on the value of experience, I did a few metrics on returning points scored by ACC team first 5 and all returnees.

I was surprised by UVA being higher than I would have thought, VA Tech was also a tad higher than I expected after loss of Vassallo, with Wake and FSU lower than expected.

Of course one cannot read much into UNC low metrics since all those minutes vacated get assigned to some highly touted frosh, and other returnees like Zeller, Davis, Drew II and Graves get more minutes too, versus guys like Delaney, Allen, Singler, Scheyer, Booker, Shumpert, Landesbury, Vasquez, Trapani, Sanders etc played as many minutes as they can play last year.

I am not sure that is the case though for some of the other better teams from last year like Clemson and Wake, and who would pick up the points vacated.

Miami had a lot of seniors and last year should have been the Canes' year and was not.

Given guys like UNC's half dozen frosh, Favors, Snaer, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, etc, should be quite a bit of parity in ACC this year with no one extremely dominant as UNC and Duke reload but probably still end up in top tier, challenged mostly by MD and BC, based on returnees.

Top 5 All Sum ACC Team

1874 2215 4089 MD
1786 1842 3628 Duke
1671 1971 3642 BC

1481 1620 3101 VA Tech
1410 1782 3192 UVA
1334 1458 2792 GA Tech
1329 1630 2959 Clemson

1191 1337 2528 Wake
1066 1360 2426 FSU
1058 1183 2241 UNC
1052 1170 2222 Miami

0854 1079 1933 NC St

[whereinthehellami]

To Bob Green's point on the value of experience, I did a few metrics on returning points scored by ACC team first 5 and all returnees.

I was surprised by UVA being higher than I would have thought, VA Tech was also a tad higher than I expected after loss of Vassallo, with Wake and FSU lower than expected.

Of course one cannot read much into UNC low metrics since all those minutes vacated get assigned to some highly touted frosh, and other returnees like Zeller, Davis, Drew II and Graves get more minutes too, versus guys like Delaney, Allen, Singler, Scheyer, Booker, Shumpert, Landesbury, Vasquez, Trapani, Sanders etc played as many minutes as they can play last year.

I am not sure that is the case though for some of the other better teams from last year like Clemson and Wake, and who would pick up the points vacated.

Miami had a lot of seniors and last year should have been the Canes' year and was not.

Given guys like UNC's half dozen frosh, Favors, Snaer, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, etc, should be quite a bit of parity in ACC this year with no one extremely dominant as UNC and Duke reload but probably still end up in top tier, challenged mostly by MD and BC, based on returnees.

Top 5 All Sum ACC Team

1874 2215 4089 MD
1786 1842 3628 Duke
1671 1971 3642 BC

1481 1620 3101 VA Tech
1410 1782 3192 UVA
1334 1458 2792 GA Tech
1329 1630 2959 Clemson

1191 1337 2528 Wake
1066 1360 2426 FSU
1058 1183 2241 UNC
1052 1170 2222 Miami

0854 1079 1933 NC St

Interesting. NC State is going to be hurting next year.

[Slackerb]

I agree in general, but remember that they signed a top 15 recruiting class.

Miami, FSU, and some of the other lower "rated" will struggle more IMO.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree in general, but remember that they signed a top 15 recruiting class.

Miami, FSU, and some of the other lower "rated" will struggle more IMO.
Might not be a bad guess except that FSU also brought in a highly promising guy Snaer.

When I re-did the metrics based on career rather than single season, some minor changes, uincluding FSU to the bottom

Top 5 All Sum ACC Team
3863 4345 8208 MD
3691 3747 7438 Duke

2901 3218 6119 Clemson
2742 3309 6051 BC

2625 2874 5499 VA Tech
2595 2834 5429 Wake
2573 3166 5739 UVA
2494 2637 5131 Miami

2257 2398 4655 GA Tech

1993 2168 4161 UNC

1495 1670 3165 NC St

1346 1645 2991 FSU